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Theories: the plausibility index


Julia Martell

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This! Is Tyrion = Targ (bastard) considered crackpot? Because I'm one of the few who like that one :)

Ah, as much as I don't believe in it, I doubt we can call it crackpot...

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9.5 /10

R+L=J

Gravedigging Hound

Robert Strong is the Mountain

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree

Alleras = Sarella

9
Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon

8
fAegon is a BlackFyre

7
Coldhands is the Night's King

6
The Great Northern Conspiracy (wish it were true but too much uncertainty)
Oberyn poisoned Tywin

5
Faceless Men responsible for the Doom 50/50

2

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs

Tyrion is a secret Targ

Varys is a Blackfyre

1
Jojen Paste

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North
S
epta Lemore is Ashara Dayne

Missaindei is a Faceless Man

?
The Green Grace is the Harpy
Theon Durden

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You can start a thread on crackpot theories' plausibility index... Take some good and some bad and let we see what we believe in :)

Do I have to start all the thread around here!?

Start it and I'll be your first post.

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Wow... No, you don't... No one has pushed you into anything...

I really wish you could convey tone whole text posting on the internet.

Obviously (to me anyway) I was being sarcastic/flippant, especially since I think I've started, like, five threads in the three years I've hung out on this forum.

The thing about crackpot theories is that it so hard to tell which are serious and which are trolling or Poes.

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I really wish you could convey tone whole text posting on the internet.

Obviously (to me anyway) I was being sarcastic/flippant, especially since I think I've started, like, five threads in the three years I've hung out on this forum.

The thing about crackpot theories is that it so hard to tell which are serious and which are trolling or Poes.

LOL... Sorry, I know how this is frustrating... There was time when we knew when people are joking. Like, if someone would say "Ned warged a butterfly and survived", we would all laugh. These days, we are extra careful because some might really believe in it...

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R+L=J-10

The Great Northern Conspiracy- 7

fAegon is a Blackfyre-9

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs-0=5

Tyrion is a secret Targ 5 (Im more tied to the idea that the Lannisters have a recent Targaryen ancestor rather than being bastards.)

Varys is a Blackfyre - Pass

Coldhands is the Night's King- Pass

Gravedigging Hound- 9

Robet Strong is the Mountain -10

Jojen Paste- 8

The Green Grace is the Harpy - 9

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - 1

Missaindei is a Faceless Man -0

Oberyn poisoned Tywin - 9

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North- 2

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon - 10

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom - 3

Theon Durden- Pass

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree - 10

Alleras = Sarella -10

ETA:

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow - 0

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LOL... Sorry, I know how this is frustrating... There was time when we knew when people are joking. Like, if someone would say "Ned warged a butterfly and survived", we would all laugh. These days, we are extra careful because some might really believe in it...

I wish the comic sans MS thing would catch on :( Unfortunately many people post from mobile though

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LOL... Sorry, I know how this is frustrating... There was time when we knew when people are joking. Like, if someone would say "Ned warged a butterfly and survived", we would all laugh. These days, we are extra careful because some might really believe in it...

Wait, he didn't warg a butterfly? I thought that was the defining point of the Howland=HS 'theory'.

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Wait, he didn't warg a butterfly? I thought that was the defining point of the Howland=HS 'theory'.

I should have posted it in spoiler brackets... Damn...

It is also one of the main points of Rhaegar=Mance

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R+L=J - 10

The Great Northern Conspiracy (is this the Northern Conspiracy, The Lesser Northern Conspiracy, or just a conspiracy)- 3

fAegon is a Blackfyre - 3

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs - 0

Tyrion is a secret Targ - 0

Varys is a Blackfyre - 3

Coldhands is the Night's King - 1

Gravedigging Hound - 10

Robet Strong is the Mountain - 10

Jojen Paste - 7

The Green Grace is the Harpy - 6

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - 2

Missaindei is a Faceless Man - 0

Oberyn poisoned Tywin - 6

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North - 0

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon - 8

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom - 1

Theon Durden - xx

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree - 8

Alleras = Sarella - 10

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R+L=J - 9.5

The Great Northern Conspiracy (is this the Northern Conspiracy, The Lesser Northern Conspiracy, or just a conspiracy)- 8

fAegon is a Blackfyre - 8

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs - 5 (chronologically makes sense out of Lannister children, incest, features, Cersei's wild anger, etc.)

Tyrion is a secret Targ - 5 (Ties Jon, Dany, and Tyrion all together. Three main characters, all killed mothers in childbirth - blood magic? - three heads of the dragon?)

Varys is a Blackfyre - 8 (shaved head to hide hair, ties to aegon/ Illyrio, plot of revenge to finally put blackfyres on throne - Makes send to back 'aegon' if he is indeed a unich and therefore unable to further the royal line, and therefore unfit for king.)

Coldhands is the Night's King - 7 (would have said 9.5 before the show)

Gravedigging Hound - 10

Robet Strong is the Mountain - 10

Jojen Paste - 4 (makes sense if....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7N-vnxEk9As&list=UUXU7XVK_2Wd6tAHYO8g9vAA

The Green Grace is the Harpy - 7

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - (Torn between this or her wed to howland reed in the neck)

Missaindei is a Faceless Man - 5

Oberyn poisoned Tywin - 8

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North - 5

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon - 8 (makes sense, and is how he lost his dragon egg.)

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom - 5

Theon Durden - 6 (man put theon out of his misery. Poor guy!)

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree - 9

Alleras = Sarella - 10

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I should have posted it in spoiler brackets... Damn...

It is also one of the main points of Rhaegar=Mance

You know, I'd actually give Rhaegar=Mance a 2 on the plausibility scale. It's super off, but at least it someone touches on the part where Mance has some sort of Targ connection via Bloodraven. That raven wing helm, just sayin'.

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This is an interesting task! Now let's see...



R+L=J: 10 So much proof, so widely believed that it might as well be canon



The Great Northern Conspiracy: 9 I certainly hope this is true, all the pieces are in place.



fAegon is a Blackfyre: 8 Perfectly possible and more than likely



Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs: 2 ah yes, the fanbase's obsession with secret Targs...I guess waiting for years will do that to a person



Tyrion is a secret Targ: 1 fan fiction



Varys is a Blackfyre: 5 I wouldn't rule it out, especially if fAegon turns out to be one.



Coldhands is the Night's King: 2 And he helps Bran....why?



Gravedigging Hound: 9 Gurm gives us everything we need to know this is true, but I doubt we'll ever see it confirmed



Robet Strong is the Mountain: 10 well duh.



Jojen Paste: 0 Debunked by the show, it was an icky theory anyway



The Green Grace is the Harpy: 6 This one lacks a strong anchoring argument, but I wouldn't be surprised if it turned outo be true that she was Hizdhar's master and not the other way around



Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne: 7 Compelling evidence for this too, another one that may not even be addressed



Missaindei is a Faceless Man: 4 It's not impossible but it's pretty tinfoily to me



Oberyn poisoned Tywin: 3 Oberyn wanted his confession from Gregor first so he wouldn't plant the poison that early on...people take dumps in the middle of the night, not uncommon, especially for old men.



Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North: 5 Possible, but thanks to the show I believe she'll be departing the game early on in WOW either way



Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon: 9 Timing is too coincidental to be suicide, so how else was it such a clean job?



The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom: 5 Pure conjecture, but I'd buy it



Theon Durden: 3 Not ruling it out completely, but it would be disappointing and as many have put it, a 'stylistic' departure, which is a nice way of saying jarring and a cop-out



Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree: 9 I'm willing to bet Rhaegar was impressed with her riding ability :drool:



Alleras = Sarella: 10 Not a very good spy though with an alias like that :dunno:




HONOURABLE MENTION


Septon Chayle is Winterfell's hooded man: 8, I hope this is true



DISHONOURABLE MENTION


Robb Stark fell for Jeyne Westerling because of a potion: 1, Oh pleeease....


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R+L=J - 10, though I'm sure we haven't got all the details right


The Great Northern Conspiracy - 2 or 8, I think there is a lot going on up North but I think most of the Stark loyalists are still working largely independent of one another. Not sure where Robb's will is at right now either


fAegon is a Blackfyre - Probably 7 or 8, though I'd prefer him to be real


Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs - 0


Tyrion is a secret Targ - 1


Varys is a Blackfyre - 6.7


Coldhands is the Night's King - 1


Gravedigging Hound - 9


Robet Strong is the Mountain - 10


Jojen Paste - Well he died with little fanfare a few weeks ago so I'll say 8, though I hadn't bought it until that point, more like a 4


The Green Grace is the Harpy - Makes sense but I also could care less. 5 or 6.


Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - Would like it but not sold, 5.


Missaindei is a Faceless Man - Never heard this one to be honest....just on face value alone, 2, but I'll study up now


Oberyn poisoned Tywin - 8.5


Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North - Like a 3, though it's still likely someone might say she is/get her pregnant


Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon - 7-8


The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom - 6-7


Theon Durden - 0


Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree - Very tough one. I'll say 5, because the case for others is just as strong as hers


Alleras = Sarella - 10. Is this even questionable?


Howland Reed = the High Sparrow - Very cool theory but I think it is unlikely, 4.5


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You know, I'd actually give Rhaegar=Mance a 2 on the plausibility scale. It's super off, but at least it someone touches on the part where Mance has some sort of Targ connection via Bloodraven. That raven wing helm, just sayin'.

You mean, you would have given it if the dark forces haven't banished it from the light of day...

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So, I'm slowly and painfully coming to terms with the fact that we will be waiting YEARS for tWoW and going over the same material again, and again, and again, and again... Yay to turning Stannis into Chuck Norris and saying awful things about Dany!

So to distract me from the staring into the abyss as it stares back into me, let's play a game.

Here's a list of some popular theories, rate them from 1 to 10 with 10 being so plausible you more or less consider it canon, and 1 being an explosion in a pot factory.

Try to be amusing so I don't get too depressed.

R+L=J

The Great Northern Conspiracy

fAegon is a Blackfyre

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs

Tyrion is a secret Targ

Varys is a Blackfyre

Coldhands is the Night's King

Gravedigging Hound

Robet Strong is the Mountain

Jojen Paste

The Green Grace is the Harpy

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne

Missaindei is a Faceless Man

Oberyn poisoned Tywin

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom

Theon Durden

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree

Alleras = Sarella

ETA:

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow - how could I forget that one!

R+L=J: 10. I'm pretty much convinced.

GNC: 6. Very possible, but not fully convinced just yet

FAegon: 8, lot's of little clues seem to point to this

Cersei and Jaime being Targs: 2. I'll be furious if it turns out that way

Tyrion is a Targ: 4. I'd hate it and it would weaken his story, but I could see Martin making his favorite a dragon-riding Targ

Varys is a Blackfyre: 3. There's more yet to Varys that we don't know, but I don't think that's it

Coldhands is the Night's King: 2. Just don't see it

Grave-digging Hound: 9. The text hints are just too strong not to believe it

Mountain=Robert Strong: 10. Who else is that big?

Jojen Paste: 5. I don't think Jojen will survive the next book(especially in light of the show) but I don't quite see him being used like that.

Green Grace=the Harpy: 7. She was my first guess before even visiting the forums.

Lemore=Ashara: 3. Just don't see it. I think Ashara is just dead.

Oberyn poisoned Tywin: 6. Very possible, though it would cheapen Tyrion's act if Tywin was going to die anyway

Jeyne is pregnant: 5. On the fence here. Very possible, but not sure I'd like to see it.

Euron killed Balon w/ a Faceless Man: 9. Just too much there not to believe.

Faceless Men caused Doom: 4. Makes sense, but we haven't heard enough about the Doom to be sure.

Theon Durden: 6. It's my favorite explanation, but not fully convinced yet.

Lyanna=KOLT: 8. It would go a long way towards explaining Rhaegar's sudden infatuation.

Alleras=Sarella: 9. We know Sarella is at the Citadel, and the name seems too coincidental.

Howland Reed=HS: 4. Possible, but I don't think it's likely.

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