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Theories: the plausibility index


Julia Martell

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There seems to be a terminology issue here, confusing plausibility with probability.

For me, plausibility comes down to 'can it fit with the data we have' (includin judgements on the data reliability) with grades based on 'is the data indicating it, or against it, put forward in the books is sufficient magnitude to make it likely'. You will notice my Plausibility grades have few steps.

Probability is mostly 'is the data indicating it, or against it, put forward in the books is sufficient magnitude to make it likely' but with more judgement on the depth or value of that data, and one little thing can change the probability significantly.

So I will answer both.

R+L=J

Plausibility = 10 - it fits everything perfectly.

Probability = 9.995, call it 10. If fits everything perfectly and there are literally zero other reasonable possibilities. It also has extraordinary strength from a metatextual angle, literary angle and payoff angle, basically every angle.

The Great Northern Conspiracy

Plausibility = 7.5. It can easily fit, but the evidence for it is limited. No significantly implausible angles.

Probability = unknown. There's just not enough solid data. Given the plausibility value, probability has to be around 4-6ish, but I don't see enough strnegth in any direction to make a fair call.

fAegon is a Blackfyre

Plausibility 5. It certainly can fit, but I consider the positive evidence 'for' very very sketchy and vague.

Probability 3. Most of that comes from the fact that its definitely not implausible. But its basically formed out of the fallacious opinion that an elderly man without kids can only be affectionate to his own progeny, and a bunch of evidence that can support multiple other hypothesis.

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs

Plausibility 7.5. Its certainly plausible, with no solid holes and not a lot but enough data pointers and hints, and has literary merits with parallels etc. But it lacks real depth of data.

Probability 2. I see very little that really points to it - the data is more of the 'hint' kind than the 'fact' kind.

Tyrion is a secret Targ

Plausibility 7.5. Its certainly plausible, has no solid holes. Actually I'd have put it at Plausible 10 but for one GRRM remark about Tyrion being named by his father, which I just can't see the likelihood of that name coming from Aerys and being accepted that way.

Probability 3. It was higher, because there is a lot of data of a variety of strengths and angles, untle that same GRRM comment about names and fathers. Probably should be a 2 really, but I refuse, perhaps irrationally, to not put it higher than A+J=J/C. We all have our flaws...

Varys is a Blackfyre

Plausibility 5. Its entirely possible, its simple lacks the data.

Probability 2. Lack of data cripples it IMO and alternatives are limitless.

Coldhands is the Night's King

Plausibility 5. Its not impossible, but very weak in supporting data.

Probability 3. Lack of data being crippling, slightly higher than Varys simply because the lack of data extends to Coldhands period.

Gravedigging Hound

Plausibility 10. Enough said.

Probability 9.5. or 9.9. Round up if you wish.

Robet Strong is the Mountain

Plausibility 10. Little data, but absolutely everything fits and there really aren't any known alternatives.

Probability 9. Not enough data points for a 9.5 or more, but really, there's no alternative at all...

Jojen Paste

Plausibility 2.5. Not totally implausible but has basically 0 solid evidecne just a bunch of onferences drawn that are easily, easily explained in other ways. 2.5 is generous I think, but its not impossible and I don't think this particular scale should have many graduations.

Probability 1. Its not impossible, but I really don't see any decent evidence, nor any literary merit, nor much payoff.

The Green Grace is the Harpy

Plausibility 10. Everything fits.

Probability 8. There are still some plausible alternatives, but this is by a long way the best.

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne

Plausibility 10. Everything fits, literally everything. The things usually used to claim 'doesn't fit' are very bad arguments as I've proven in detail time and again in the appropriate threads.

Probability 8. Its got lots of solid data, no real flaws beyond Martin not telling us something he needs to hide, lots of story payoff, but it doesn't have anything really really conclusive. The alternatives are very weak, either badly lacking in data or with serious flaws.

Missaindei is a Faceless Man

Plausibility 5. There's just no data that really supports it, but nothing much against it either.

Probability 1. Nothing suggests this.

Oberyn poisoned Tywin

Plausibility 0. There's little or nothing to support it beyond undoubtedly Oberyn would have liked to do so. But the man died with unfinished business. Frankly the Varys poisoned Tywin scenario is vastly more plausible, even though I'm not a fan.

Probability 1. Nothing suggests this.

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Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North

Plausibility 7.5. Its possible. Not enough strength to be a 10 though.

Probability = unknown Just not enough data to make a call either way, so I guess a 4-6, but no idea which to choose.

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon

Plausibility = 10 it fits perfectly and the limited data leads us there.

Probability = 9, some room for doubt though, we just don't know enough to be sure.

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom

Plausibility 5. Its not impossible, fist with the generalities we know, but we have very little data and although this fits that data, this is not where that data automatically leads us.

Probability = totally unknown. Not even willing to put a 4-6 on this one, we just don't know anything really.

Theon Durden

I'm gonna take the lesser 'Theon is the hooded stranger' option, rather than the all-the-way Theon is the killer option.

Plausibility 7.5. It works, it fits the data, it solves several issues.

Probability 7. It works, it fits the data, it solves several issues, but there are plenty of other options out there.

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree

Plausibility 10. Everything we have from Martin fits.

Probability 9.9 Not only all the data, all the characterisations all the everything fits, it works for metastory reasons, literary reasons and future playoffs. The other alternatives are all very very weak, weaker than they look at first glance.

Alleras = Sarella

Plausibility 10 Everything fits, literally everything.

Probability 9.9 No reason at all to doubt this, so it could be a 10, but there's no strong reaons for it not to be an alternative answer so a shadow of doubt remains until it is confirmed.

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow - how could I forget that one!

Because its crap?

Plausibility 2.5. Its not impossible, but theres really virtually nothing in the supporting case and it just doesn;t add up on multiple levels

Probability 1. Its not impossible.

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The Hound doesn't seem to be talked about much lately (maybe it has been done to death and I am new here) but I wondered if he would make an unexpected reappearance at the trial by combat of Cersei, fighting against his brother. I doubt he is dead and must have been the gravedigger but I cant see him retiring gracefully, just long enough for his wounds to heal.


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R+L=J 9.5



GNC 2



fAegon is a blackfyre 5 (not entirely convinced he isn't real)



A+J=C+J 8



A+J=T 4 R+J=T 6



Varys Blackfyre 5



Coldhands Nightking 4 (I lean towards Ratcook)



Grave digging hound 6 (you'd think Podrick would notice/say something)



RS= Mountain 10 (waiting for him to dance like leaves in the wind)



Jojen Paste 1 (Tormunds tale makes me think that's just how they taste)



Green Grace is the Harpy 3 (I don't think there is a "Harpy")



SL= AD,4, SL=LS 1, SL=SS 2,



Missainsei=FM 2 (if KM is not lying than she would be a rare exception by being a female and her age is low unless she took the waif's age stopping potion)



Obyryn poisoned Tywin 9



Euron FM to kill Balon 0 (completely inconsistent with cause of death)



FM caused doom 4 (more of a supportive role i believe)



Theon Durden 2 Too many more likely candidates



KOTLT = LS, 5 HR 2, NS 1, AD 1, LF 0.5, SC 0.5



Alleras = Sarella 8(See Septa Lemore)


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Corbon: you quibbling over terminology went a long way towards making me feel better. Thank you.

You are more than welcome. Usually it makes people more irritated, but I can't be someone I'm not. I just couldn't accurately answer the original question. And I figured it at least made my answers more interesting, as well as better expressing more precisely how I felt about each theory, otherwise I'd just have stayed quiet.

I think fAegon is Aegon shold be in the list (it actually puts togther much better then fAegon Blackfyre even though a lot of people dismiss it for bad reasons) but its probably too late now.

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R+L=J = 10



The Great Northern Conspiracy = Cannot be properly rated because of how potentially elaborate some make it. Generally though, are some Northern houses conspiring against the Boltons? Of course.



fAegon is a Blackfyre = 9 (Aegon is fake = 10)



Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs = 5



Tyrion is a secret Targ = 3



Varys is a Blackfyre = 8



Coldhands is the Night's King = 2? Not too much information to go on.



Gravedigging Hound = 10



Robet Strong is the Mountain = 10



Jojen Paste = 2



The Green Grace is the Harpy = 7



Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne = - 5



Missaindei is a Faceless Man = 2



Oberyn poisoned Tywin = 2



Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North = 0



Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon = 10



The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom = Much too broad. I am sure they contributed though.



Theon Durden = 9



Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree = 10



Alleras = Sarella = 10



Howland Reed = the High Sparrow = - 5


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R+L=J = 9.5 - Always good to have wiggle room.



The Great Northern Conspiracy = 6.5



fAegon is a Blackfyre = 7 (fAegon = 8)



Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs = 2



Tyrion is a secret Targ = 4



Varys is a Blackfyre = 5



Coldhands is the Night's King = I haven't been following that enough to participate with any decent knowledge. 4?



Gravedigging Hound = 9.7777



Robet Strong is the Mountain = 9.7777



Jojen Paste = 4



The Green Grace is the Harpy = 7



Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne = 4 -



Missaindei is a Faceless Man = 2.5



Oberyn poisoned Tywin = 6.66



Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North = 1.5



Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon = 10



The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom = Didn't hear that yet...



Theon Durden = 6.66



Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree = 7



Alleras = Sarella = 10



Howland Reed = the High Sparrow = 4

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R+L=J (5)

The Great Northern Conspiracy (2)

fAegon is a Blackfyre (6)

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs (0) Not entering 1 on principle!

Tyrion is a secret Targ (0) Same

Varys is a Blackfyre (8)

Coldhands is the Night's King (7)

Gravedigging Hound (6)

Robet Strong is the Mountain (10) Less head - does that mean it can only be 9?

Jojen Paste (3)

The Green Grace is the Harpy (5)

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne (2)

Missaindei is a Faceless Man (1)

Oberyn poisoned Tywin (0) Tummy trouble as a weapon? Really? Long, slow, dragging in out - Don't buy it. A kid's trick.

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North (10) A reason why Robb quickly arranged the marriage

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon (2)

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom (1)

Theon Durden (1)

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree (0) Laughing eyes does not a warrior make

Alleras = Sarella (10) It's a palindrome

ETA:

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow - how could I forget that one! (5)

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10 - R+L=J

8 - The Great Northern Conspiracy - PLEASE!!!

7 - fAegon is a Blackfyre

1 - Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs

1 - Tyrion is a secret Targ

9 - Varys is a Blackfyre

2 - Coldhands is the Night's King

10 - Gravedigging Hound - Talk about redemption arc!

8 - Robet Strong is the Mountain - Mostly, but with some interesting enhanced and/or missing parts.

3 - Jojen Paste

6 - The Green Grace is the Harpy

4 - Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - Would be cool though.

1 - Missaindei is a Faceless Man - Why?

10 - Oberyn poisoned Tywin - Of course!

2 - Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North - Not if she is "her mother's daughter" as Tywin said.

7 - Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon

1 - The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom

2 - Theon Durden - Great idea, but no.

9 - Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree

10 - Alleras = Sarella

ETA:

4 - Howland Reed = the High Sparrow - how could I forget that one! - Probably not, but I love this theory.

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All are plausible, its a friggin fantasy book with magic and shit. Dude can make whatever he wants happen. Evidence in these books is no indicator really, either he is predictable so boring or leading you down the garden path to keep it interesting.

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sandywinder, on 04 Aug 2014 - 06:26 AM, said:

The Hound doesn't seem to be talked about much lately (maybe it has been done to death and I am new here) but I wondered if he would make an unexpected reappearance at the trial by combat of Cersei, fighting against his brother. I doubt he is dead and must have been the gravedigger but I cant see him retiring gracefully, just long enough for his wounds to heal.

That is what many people hope, but I think it is really unlikely. It's too poetic/fulfilling for The George. He wouldn't want us to be happy now would he?

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That is what many people hope, but I think it is really unlikely. It's too poetic/fulfilling for The George. He wouldn't want us to be happy now would he?

No, it is not what most people hope, because Cersei survives her trial, which means whoever is the Faith's champion will die. So no one wants the Hound to be that guy.

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Huh, I began to think I was in the minority in thinking Tyrion = Targ is fanfiction that ruins Tywin's Shakespearean family dynamic.

I'm glad to see I'm not.

Fan fiction is invented shit that is not in the books. Any theory, whether well liked or not, whether probable or not, that has a large amount of textual data supporting it cannot be classed as fanfiction.

But it can be illuminating to see whether people think with their head or their heart. And how self aware of that they are.

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Fan fiction is invented shit that is not in the books. Any theory, whether well liked or not, whether probable or not, that has a large amount of textual data supporting it cannot be classed as fanfiction.

But it can be illuminating to see whether people think with their head or their heart. And how self aware of that they are.

Actually there is an awful lot of pointless text analysis in some theories that people pretend is evidence, but actually doesn't support or prove a damned thing. I don't like your definition because it permits anyone to take random colourfully worded phrases from the books, read WAY too much into that wording and call it "hints" or "forshadowing" when in fact it is pure bullshit. (See the Howland Reed = High Sparrow thread for copious examples of this phenomenon.) This text analysis does not come close to lifting these theories beyond the category of FanFic.

I would argue that to not be FanFic, a theory has to pass a basic test of logic, and be driven by appropriate character history and motivations, NOT simply fan desires. In the case of HR = HS, the theory is not driven by anything we know about either the High Sparrow or Howland Reed, but rather by fans' desire to finally meet Howland Reed and see what he has been up to.

But when you look at what each character is up to now or has done in the past, it doesn't match.

High Sparrow - with powerful leverage against the crown, chose to use that leverage to create an army of militarized zealots for the Faith of the Seven.

Howland Reed - visited the Isle of Faces, prays towards the island from Harrenhal, belongs to the culture that fought OFF the Andals and with them the Faith of the Seven to preserve the rights of the North to their own religion.

Logic Fail: there is no way in hell that Howland Reed's first priority (rather than helping fight the Ironborn, Boltons and Freys, and defend Jon Snow whose secret he knows) would be to create an army of religious zealots for a Faith that is not his own, and that in militarized form is a grave DANGER to his own religion.

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R+L=J : 1...everytime I see someone pompously declare it's true my eyes bleed and I hear the Disney theme playing. It's based entirely on Ned's stoner dream people!


The Great Northern Conspiracy : 8...they wouldn't be Northmen if they didn't have dreams of world domination!


fAegon is a Blackfyre : 2...fAegon is just a blonde haired slave boy picked out of the thousands that Varys and Illyrio (2 con men) had at hand.


Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs : 3....only because the King wanted to shag Joanna before Tywin did.


Tyrion is a secret Targ : 1...pffft


Varys is a Blackfyre : 1...as above. Varys is just a con man


Coldhands is the Night's King : 4...possible, but in no way important to the current story (like the Mouth of Sauron...was a somebody, now it doesn't matter)


Gravedigging Hound : 8...I want the Hound to be lurking in WF, killing people, but it looks likely


Robet Strong is the Mountain : 10...well, parts of him are


Jojen Paste : 1....complete and utter rubbish


The Green Grace is the Harpy : 7...haven't really looked to much into this


Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne : 6...Lemore is someone other than she claims, and I don't think Ashara died...are they the same? I'm leaning towards yes.


Missaindei is a Faceless Man : 1...she's what, 7? And she's Greyworms little sis isn't she?


Oberyn poisoned Tywin : 2...possible, but it's really an idea that has come about after 5 years of trying to fill the gaps.


Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North : 1...she would be showing by now, instead she's being paraded around.


Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon : 10...covered in the GoHHs prophecy


The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom : 1...the FM were still a tiny cult when this happened, and the Doom was a natural event


Theon Durden : 1....I had a good laugh when I heard this one.


Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree : 7...yep. Most likely


Alleras = Sarella : 10...that's a given.

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Actually there is an awful lot of pointless text analysis in some theories that people pretend is evidence, but actually doesn't support or prove a damned thing. I don't like your definition because it permits anyone to take random colourfully worded phrases from the books, read WAY too much into that wording and call it "hints" or "forshadowing" when in fact it is pure bullshit. (See the Howland Reed = High Sparrow thread for copious examples of this phenomenon.) This text analysis does not come close to lifting these theories beyond the category of FanFic.

I would argue that to not be FanFic, a theory has to pass a basic test of logic, and be driven by appropriate character history and motivations, NOT simply fan desires. In the case of HR = HS, the theory is not driven by anything we know about either the High Sparrow or Howland Reed, but rather by fans' desire to finally meet Howland Reed and see what he has been up to.

But when you look at what each character is up to now or has done in the past, it doesn't match.

High Sparrow - with powerful leverage against the crown, chose to use that leverage to create an army of militarized zealots for the Faith of the Seven.

Howland Reed - visited the Isle of Faces, prays towards the island from Harrenhal, belongs to the culture that fought OFF the Andals and with them the Faith of the Seven to preserve the rights of the North to their own religion.

Logic Fail: there is no way in hell that Howland Reed's first priority (rather than helping fight the Ironborn, Boltons and Freys, and defend Jon Snow whose secret he knows) would be to create an army of religious zealots for a Faith that is not his own, and that in militarized form is a grave DANGER to his own religion.

This exactly!!!

I see too many people completely dismiss very logical ideas because it either casts doubt on their own personal pet theories or "the text doesn't mention it" - oh how I hate that line!

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