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The Death of BOTH Sweetrobin AND Harry the Heir


Mithras

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There is a general misunderstanding about this thread. The plan I posted in the OP is LF’s endgame and the plan was good under the assumptions of LF back then. But a lot of things are happening to ruin LF’s plans, some of which LF still does not know.

I think there are a couple of problems with this line of thinking. First, as it was mentioned upthread, I find it hard to believe that LF's endgame is just being a Lord Paramount (of two kingdoms, but still), considering all the scheming he's done. I think he's aiming definetely higher, but he's smart enough to know being a king is a dangerous job, which is why I think he's planning on crowning Harry and Sansa, uniting Vale, Riverlands and North as a single, independent kingdom, and him being the power behind the throne. Now, he'll never pull off something like this with himself as a figurehead, because as manipulative as he can be, he'll never ever inspire enough love and respect for that, not to mention on account of his low birth

This problem is intrinsically link to the second one I see, which is that LF has to know that the current regime is sinking. When the Iron Throne falls and someone else takes over, he can kiss his Harrenhal lordship goodbye, because Aegon or Euron or Dany or whoever are going to put one of their own in charge of the Riverlands. And that will shake his grip on the Vale as well, no matter how many bribes he gives the lords of the Vale.

Which is why he clearly knows he needs a plan B when this happens, and this plan, I think, needs more charismatic, loyalty-inspiring figureheads than himself

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I think i understand LF's plan. He is going to write Cerseri to ask her to legitimize Alayne telling her that by legitimizing her she can marry Harry and that with Sweet Robin's poor health, odds are Harry will be the Lord of the Vale sooner rather than later. He could tell her a marriage between his "daughter" and the future lord of the vale will assure the Vale remains loyal to the Crown (he can even mention other ppl with questionable loyalty want to marry Harry to their daughters). He will request his baseborn daughter Alayne be legitimized so she can marry him. (bonus: LF asks her to do it cuz he wants an heir and "refuses to remarry after the tragic loss of his dear Lysa")



Then suddenly his bastard daughter becomes a hot highborn eligible woman with a fortune and the whole riverlands. Harry and the Vale see the logic in the match



Pyter marries Alayne to Harry without revealing her identity. He then rules the vale in SR's name until the Lannister Tyrell Alliance gets extremely messed up. He then poisions SweetRobin and sends him to someone else's castle to become their Ward. SweetRobin dies in that castle makeing it look like that Lord killed him.


Harry is made Lord of the Vale but instead of makeing him Lord, Littlefinger hands him and Sansa a crown, revealing Sansa's identity and as her husband, he is now King in the North and she his Queen.


He assures the Vale Lords that he is their humble servant who was forced to play Cersie's Lapdog to ensure that they are able to support the North like they have wanted to do the entire time.



Everyone goes yay Sansa Yay Harry! Then the army martches out to kill the Lannisters and it takes the Iron throne.


Littlefinger decides to make them king and queen of the seven kingdoms with him being their hand. They take Kingslanding from the inside (because the goldcloaks are all his men) and LF crowns Sansa and Harry King and Queen of the Seven Kingdoms



Ageon shows up and LF is forced to Adapt. He kills Harry making it look like someone else did it leaving Sansa a widow. A marriage between Sansa and Ageon is proposed to peacefully make two kingdom's one. Ageon reluctantly agrees because he was waiting for Dany but word has come that she went missing or died. He marries Sansa pissing off Dorne in the process. He is not mean to Sansa but he does not love her either.



It seems like Sansa finally gets her happily ever after but The Others come. all hell brakes loose.


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I think there are a couple of problems with this line of thinking. First, as it was mentioned upthread, I find it hard to believe that LF's endgame is just being a Lord Paramount (of two kingdoms, but still), considering all the scheming he's done. I think he's aiming definetely higher, but he's smart enough to know being a king is a dangerous job, which is why I think he's planning on crowning Harry and Sansa, uniting Vale, Riverlands and North as a single, independent kingdom, and him being the power behind the throne. Now, he'll never pull off something like this with himself as a figurehead, because as manipulative as he can be, he'll never ever inspire enough love and respect for that, not to mention on account of his low birth

LF would have three kingdoms with this plan (i.e. becoming the LP of the Vale and marrying Sansa, which brings the North and the Riverlands).

All the scheming he has done so far was to get the seat of Harrenhal, which was an empty title which made the Lysa marriage possible. That makes me think that Vale was always LF’s endgame.

When he feels ready to defy the IT, he might well declare the independent kingdom of the Vale, North and Riverlands but I don’t think he needs a figurehead. He is already putting himself forward as a figurehead as the LP of the Vale and Riverlands. He served in the Small Council. He is already a man of note.

As for inspiring love and respect, I think he can do that pretty well. He knows how to manipulate the common folk. He can tell the necessary lies to gain their support. As for the highborn, he is bribing, killing and threatening his way through them. He feels confident that given enough time, he can destroy any lord that might cause a problem for him. His low birth is not as much a great problem.

This problem is intrinsically link to the second one I see, which is that LF has to know that the current regime is sinking. When the Iron Throne falls and someone else takes over, he can kiss his Harrenhal lordship goodbye, because Aegon or Euron or Dany or whoever are going to put one of their own in charge of the Riverlands. And that will shake his grip on the Vale as well, no matter how many bribes he gives the lords of the Vale.

Which is why he clearly knows he needs a plan B when this happens, and this plan, I think, needs more charismatic, loyalty-inspiring figureheads than himself

LF clearly stated that he did not foresee how fast Cersei was tearing down the Lannister-Tyrell alliance. Maggy’s Prophecy is not something he knew, nor do I think he could have guessed that Varys would like to tear things down in KL so fast. He could have never guessed that Euron would cause so many problems in the Reach. The pro-Stark movement in the North and Riverlands is also something hidden from him. Finally, we do not know how much LF is aware of fAegon conspiracy.

He needed a strong IT backing him up to give him enough to to consolidate his power in the Vale and eliminate the opposition. That is out of option thanks to Cersei now.

In short, he could not have kept his luck forever. With so many new paradigms in the Game of Thrones, his Plan B (whatever it is) should also lie in ruins. He will grow reckless and desperate and the time is getting closer for LF to leave the scene to the new contenders.

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As for inspiring love and respect, I think he can do that pretty well. He knows how to manipulate the common folk. He can tell the necessary lies to gain their support. As for the highborn, he is bribing, killing and threatening his way through them. He feels confident that given enough time, he can destroy any lord that might cause a problem for him. His low birth is not as much a great problem.

No, he does not "inspire love and respect". He's succeeded in remaining as regent through various bribes and tricks, for the moment. That is not remotely the same thing as being made the Lord of the Eyrie, a seat he has no claim on. The Vale is the home of the oldest Andal nobility in the continent. They would never, ever consent to giving the Eyrie to a man of Littlefinger's birth, and he cannot simply murder anyone who opposes him. He doesn't have the resources for that, for one thing, as GRRM noted. He has a couple of mercenaries that actually work directly for him, nothing more. Nestor Royce isn't going to help him murder Yohn.

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There is a general misunderstanding about this thread. The plan I posted in the OP is LF’s endgame and the plan was good under the assumptions of LF back then. But a lot of things are happening to ruin LF’s plans, some of which LF still does not know.

For example Rickon will soon be installed to Winterfell after the defeat of the Boltons. The North will declare for Stannis. This means LF will have a much harder time keeping Sansa content because the girl will want to return home and see her baby brother. At the same time, the shitstorm at KL and the ironborn problem will be heard and the power of the IT in the Vale will start to vanish much sooner than LF anticipated. The arrival of fAegon and the active involvement of Varys is also a game changer. Lady Stoneheart will create serious menace to the Freys in Riverlands which will also result in the death of Walder Frey and the Frey Civil War for succession. The pro-Stark sentiment will start to shine again and the Vale Lords will not fear the might of the IT this time.

In short, LF will not survive this chaos.

The plan I posted in the OP is the soon-to-be-ruined plan of LF and many of the objections to the OP actually state why this plan is doomed.

Yes, LF is one a characte rthat some readers assume has superpowers and is completely invincible.

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I don't think that the Vale would go to Littlefinger after Harry dies. The normal procedure would be to go back in the family tree and find the heir to the Veil, whoever it may be. I don't understand how suddenly the crown could intervene to the succession. They would have no right, even if they did want Littlefinger to rule there. Plus Harry the heir already has a bastard, lest you forget.

Don't you think it's a bit naive to refer to the "the normal procedure"? Is it normal for the crown prince to kidnap/elope with the daughter of one of his chief bannermen? Is it normal to have five separate declared Kings in the realm? Was the Red Wedding normal? How about the purple wedding?

Remember what Varys said about power:

"Power resides where men believe it resides. No more and no less.”

The situation we have right now in the Vale is that Littlefinger is there manipulating the situation, consolidating his power, and doing his best to create a power block where most of the Lords of the Vale are in his pocket. He knows Bronze Yohn will remain opposed to him, but he has a plan to bring the others to his side. The trick for Littlefinger will be to create the perception that power resides with him. Once he's done that, he can appeal to the crown, with the support of the majority of the Vale lords, to confirm him as Lord of the Vale. Alternatively, if he can keep SR from dying, it may be enough to simply act as Regent for the time being and use that as a platform to extend his power into the Riverlands to try and bring the Riverlords onto his side.

Incidentally, here's the entirety of that quote above:

“Some say knowledge is power. Some tell us that all power comes from the gods. Others say it derives from law. Yet that day on the steps of Baelor’s Sept, our godly High Septon and the lawful Queen Regent and your ever-so-knowledgeable servant were as powerless as any cobbler or cooper in the crowd. Who truly killed Eddard Stark, do you think? Joffrey, who gave the command? Ser Ilyn Payne, who swung the sword? Or…another?”

Tyrion cocked his head sideways. “Did you mean to answer your damned riddle, or only to make my head ache worse?”

Varys smiled. “Here, then. Power resides where men believe it resides. No more and no less.”

“So power is a mummer’s trick?”

“A shadow on the wall,” Varys murmured, “yet shadows can kill. And ofttimes a very small man can cast a very large shadow.”

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There's a lot of assuming going on. LF can't reveal Sansa, marry her to anyone for the Winterfell title or unite the North with anyone because A. she's wanted, B. she already married Tyrion- it is known, and C. his head would be on a stick.



Unless or until everything changes in KL, these things aren't do-able.


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And the only real claim for Harrenhall were the Harren's who have been extinct for years, so Harrenhall can really be given to whoever the throne or current paramount of the Riverlands want.

Wouldn't the Volmarks have a claim to Harrenhal as direct descendants of Harren the Black through the female-line? I remember Tarle saying that Maron Volmark has the best claim to the Seastone Chair as Maron descends from Harren the Black through his mother? I not, wouldn't the Whents' descendants still claim Harrenhal as the most previous lords of the castle and their line still continues in the Tullys with Edmure and the Stark children as well as Sweet Robin..

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The situation we have right now in the Vale is that Littlefinger is there manipulating the situation, consolidating his power, and doing his best to create a power block where most of the Lords of the Vale are in his pocket. He knows Bronze Yohn will remain opposed to him, but he has a plan to bring the others to his side. The trick for Littlefinger will be to create the perception that power resides with him. Once he's done that, he can appeal to the crown, with the support of the majority of the Vale lords, to confirm him as Lord of the Vale.

Again, there's a world of difference from him remaining as regent, which he has some natural claim on anyway as Lysa's husband, and being made lord. Building support for the former doesn't remotely equal to having support for the latter.

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In short, he could not have kept his luck forever. With so many new paradigms in the Game of Thrones, his Plan B (whatever it is) should also lie in ruins. He will grow reckless and desperate and the time is getting closer for LF to leave the scene to the new contenders.

How so?

The game has changed so his plans will need a re-think but he's in a solid position, even if he just sits and does nothing. House Tyrell and House Lannister both believe that he is their man. He's done nothing to antagonise The Boltons, Martells, Greyjoys, Aegon or even Stannis. Stannis might still hate him, of course, but as far as he's aware LF hasn't commited any real crimes. As it stands, he'd be relatively uneffected regardless of who sits the Iron Throne.

In the Vale, he's Lord Arryn's Stepfather and has won over most of the Lord's Declarant and/or their next of kin already. He will also be immediately aware of any plots against him because of Lyn Corbray, giving him time to prepare.

The only real problem he's got is Sansa. Telling her that he was going to kill Robert was a massive mis-step and could cost him dearly. Whether he realizes that is another question entirely.

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The main idea of this thread is what LF plans, not what will happen. LF was planning that the Lannisters would have an uncontested reign long enough for LF to work his machinations. There are many things which are out of control/knowledge of LF that are ruining his plans. His demise is close.

There is a general misunderstanding about this thread. The plan I posted in the OP is LF’s endgame and the plan was good under the assumptions of LF back then. But a lot of things are happening to ruin LF’s plans, some of which LF still does not know.

For example Rickon will soon be installed to Winterfell after the defeat of the Boltons. The North will declare for Stannis. This means LF will have a much harder time keeping Sansa content because the girl will want to return home and see her baby brother. At the same time, the shitstorm at KL and the ironborn problem will be heard and the power of the IT in the Vale will start to vanish much sooner than LF anticipated. The arrival of fAegon and the active involvement of Varys is also a game changer. Lady Stoneheart will create serious menace to the Freys in Riverlands which will also result in the death of Walder Frey and the Frey Civil War for succession. The pro-Stark sentiment will start to shine again and the Vale Lords will not fear the might of the IT this time.

In short, LF will not survive this chaos.

The plan I posted in the OP is the soon-to-be-ruined plan of LF and many of the objections to the OP actually state why this plan is doomed.

In both of these, you've decided what will happen to LF. How can it be in LF's plan to doom himself? Whether you do it by accident, I can't be certain. It is what you've implied.

Surely, whatever LF's plan is, there is an endgame. Surely, plans can go completely to pot. Whatever LF plans are, don't they have contingencies built in?

I see LF's endgame, his masterplan, as getting to the one position which holds the greatest power. That is not that cursed rusty chair that's also butt-ugly. IT is too much of a distraction. IT even rewards some by cutting them. The Hand (of the Monarch) is what he truly desires.

To get there, what is he doing? Manipulation and Maneuvering. He's working on forming his pieces on the board into a strategically strong position. The first part of his plans concern The Vale.

He's shown he can be ruthless, and take advantage of a situation. Lysa out the moon door.

He's crafty and sly. What is he doing with SweetRobin? He's having the boy given regular doses of sweetsleep, supposedly to cover the boy's fits.

He'll stop and nothing to get his way. This marriage of Alayne to Harrold. What's that for? He knows The Vale won't get behind him. Where does he go? To the only heir in the Arryn lineage after SweetRobin.

When does he reveal who Alayne Stone really is?

Where does he go next, once he's sewn up The Vale? Maybe he forges a connection with The Tyrells. The Lannisters are losing face as well as their key figures. They're on their way to becoming a spent force. It's been proven that Tywin doesn't shit gold.

I could state a few screwball ideas too.

LF's motivation for The Hand? To match Jon Arryn, at least. To stay one step ahead of the rest. To keep his head from a coating of tar.

LF's weaknesses? Start with these. He's not a popular person. Many feel they can trust him.

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Again, there's a world of difference from him remaining as regent, which he has some natural claim on anyway as Lysa's husband, and being made lord. Building support for the former doesn't remotely equal to having support for the latter.

Well, I suppose you can view it that way and you may be right. Trying to become Lord of the Vale in his own right may be a bridge too far. However, regardless of how we as readers perceive the viability of that level of ambition, there's still a question of how LF the character views it. As I said before, LF may think it sufficient to simply use his power as Regent to move his agenda forward, but if he truly thinks SR isn't long for this world, that would imply that he's either planning for Harry to become Lord OR he's planning for Harry to die (maybe he goes hunting with Lyn Corbray for instance) and then someone else becomes Lord (or Lady). The question, really, as Paper Waver stated in the OP, is who becomes Lord once both HtH and SW are out of the picture?

On the other hand, it's also possible that LF isn't actually planning for SR to kick the bucket. Keeping SR alive would allow him to continue building his base of power and allow him to move forward creating an alliance between the three Kingdoms of the North, the Riverlands, and the Vale.

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LF would have three kingdoms with this plan (i.e. becoming the LP of the Vale and marrying Sansa, which brings the North and the Riverlands).

All the scheming he has done so far was to get the seat of Harrenhal, which was an empty title which made the Lysa marriage possible. That makes me think that Vale was always LF’s endgame.

When he feels ready to defy the IT, he might well declare the independent kingdom of the Vale, North and Riverlands but I don’t think he needs a figurehead. He is already putting himself forward as a figurehead as the LP of the Vale and Riverlands. He served in the Small Council. He is already a man of note.

As for inspiring love and respect, I think he can do that pretty well. He knows how to manipulate the common folk. He can tell the necessary lies to gain their support. As for the highborn, he is bribing, killing and threatening his way through them. He feels confident that given enough time, he can destroy any lord that might cause a problem for him. His low birth is not as much a great problem.

LF clearly stated that he did not foresee how fast Cersei was tearing down the Lannister-Tyrell alliance. Maggy’s Prophecy is not something he knew, nor do I think he could have guessed that Varys would like to tear things down in KL so fast. He could have never guessed that Euron would cause so many problems in the Reach. The pro-Stark movement in the North and Riverlands is also something hidden from him. Finally, we do not know how much LF is aware of fAegon conspiracy.

He needed a strong IT backing him up to give him enough to to consolidate his power in the Vale and eliminate the opposition. That is out of option thanks to Cersei now.

In short, he could not have kept his luck forever. With so many new paradigms in the Game of Thrones, his Plan B (whatever it is) should also lie in ruins. He will grow reckless and desperate and the time is getting closer for LF to leave the scene to the new contenders.

He didn't want to marry Lysa, but Sansa.

No he doesn't, Robert is lord of the Vale, and his lorship of the riverlands really means nothing, no one recongize him as the lord of the riverlands.

How? When have we seen any common people love him? As to the highborn, he is confident he can rally them under Harry and Sansa, not him. Every noble in the Vale has a better claim then him, and if they are greedy enough to take his coin, they are greedy enough to take his head.

We know absolutely nothing of him taking power like this for himself directly.

Without the crown, Baelish is just a lord of a small finger.

Baelish always relied on luck, he never sweated.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Hadn't thought of it!Very good.But the Vale Lords won't notice that not a long time LF arrived Lysa,SR and Harry died and make the connections to LF (and why not Sansa?)?I find it too risky.

Lysa murder is solved without a problem (so far). SR's health is well-known. Many people expect that he would not survive long. Harry might die in a tourney mishap, or since he is Robert 2.0, LF might do some arrangements for him to catch pox from a whore.

Clean hands.

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Lysa murder is solved without a problem (so far). SR's health is well-known. Many people expect that he would not survive long. Harry might die in a tourney mishap, or since he is Robert 2.0, LF might do some arrangements for him to catch pox from a whore.

Clean hands.

Bodies piling up makes people reassess earlier actions.

In any event, there is, at bottom, no support in the Vale for putting someone like Baelish in charge. Martin has talked in the past about understanding the importance of class in times like this, and Baelish simply would never be accepted as Lord of the Eyrie based on his background, even if they were willing to see him in other appointed offices.

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Come on people.

Littlefinger's plan is to marry Sansa to Harry, but first get her loyal to HIM before that. He will then father a son with her, but pass it off as Harry's child.

Once Sweetrobin and Harry are then killed, Sansa will then rule the Vale through her son, which is secretly Petyr's.

Littlefinger cannot know that Rickon and Bran are alive, so according to his plan, his son will then be heir to the Vale, the North AND to the Riverlands, through Sansa, once Edmure is killed without issue.

As for declaring Sansa to the world, of course he will. Do you think he conspired to kill Joffrey to support the Lannisters position? Of course not.

He is planning their downfall, as soon as he doesn't need Cersei's implied support anymore.

The flaw in his entire plan, is the fact that Rickon and Bran are alive, thus robbing Sansa of title to the North and the Riverlands.

But apart from that, the plan was brilliant.

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