R+L=J v.96

[BearQueen87]

I thought the suggestion was not that Lyanna went back to WF pregnant after Harrenhal, but after she was "taken" by Rhaegar and got pregnant. In other words, I thought the suggestion of HC was that Rhaegar takes Lyanna and she get pregnant. But because she was not really "taken" she was able to sneak back to WF, and only after the confrontation with Lyarra did she leave again and go with Rhaegar to ToJ. So the uncertain timeline I thought was being referenced was the timeline between Lyanna being "taken" but Rhaegar and Ned showing up at ToJ. We have very little information about what exactly happened during that time. In any event, the idea that Lyanna went back to WF preganant, IMHO, is pure "fan fic" and makes no sense.

I just read your first post and yeah maybe that's what Honeyed Chicken meant, and I agree it's pretty impossible. How does Lyanna sneak back to WF from the ToJ? It's not a short journey. What--no one saw her? No one grabbed and sent a raven to Ned and Robert saying, "got her!" Whether it be over land or over sea, Lyanna going back to WF doesn't make any sense. And then going from WF back to the ToJ again makes no sense.

[UnmaskedLurker]

I just read your first post and yeah maybe that's what Honeyed Chicken meant, and I agree it's pretty impossible. How does Lyanna sneak back to WF from the ToJ? It's not a short journey. What--no one saw her? No one grabbed and sent a raven to Ned and Robert saying, "got her!" Whether it be over land or over sea, Lyanna going back to WF doesn't make any sense. And then going from WF back to the ToJ again makes no sense.

There is a difference between (1) looking at all the clues and coming up with a theory suggested by the clues and (2) coming up with a theory that is not directly contradicted by the text but for which there are no real clues in support. The first is what I (and I think you) generally try to do, and it is a useful method to deduce what might be going on in the series. The second is basically "fan fic" and highly unlikely to be accurate. HC basically was engaging in the second type of reasoning.

[Jon Weirgaryen]

I thought the suggestion was not that Lyanna went back to WF pregnant after Harrenhal, but after she was "taken" by Rhaegar and got pregnant. In other words, I thought the suggestion of HC was that Rhaegar takes Lyanna and she get pregnant. But because she was not really "taken" she was able to sneak back to WF, and only after the confrontation with Lyarra did she leave again and go with Rhaegar to ToJ. So the uncertain timeline I thought was being referenced was the timeline between Lyanna being "taken" but Rhaegar and Ned showing up at ToJ. We have very little information about what exactly happened during that time. In any event, the idea that Lyanna went back to WF preganant, IMHO, is pure "fan fic" and makes no sense.

Ahem, while I completely agree with what you are saying, I wasn't replying to HC but to @BearQueen87 and what I wrote was about Aegon, son of Rhaegar and Elia's, not about Lyanna's escapades at all which may or may not have happened some way or another. But Aegon's birth precedes Lyanna's disappearance. And there was a timeline thing to nitpick, I like to do that for no reason.

[UnmaskedLurker]

Ahem, while I completely agree with what you are saying, I wasn't replying to HC but to @BearQueen87 and what I wrote was about Aegon, son of Rhaegar and Elia's, not about Lyanna's escapades at all which may or may not have happened some way or another. But Aegon's birth precedes Lyanna's disappearance. And there was a timeline thing to nitpick, I like to do that for no reason.

You are right--I probably should have responded to her directly rather that through your response to her. Sorry for any confusion.

[Patriam1066]

I tend to lean towards R + L = J, but why does everyone seem to think there is such strong evidence for this? It's definitely the best theory, but it's not the only valid one. I'd say it like this, 50% chance its R + L = J, 10% B + A = J, 100% chance GRRM is enjoying everyone squirm thinking about this. His parents could be anyone. Assuming he is R + L = J, he's a huge let down for someone completing a prophesy. The story isn't over yet, but so far he's made about every stupid decision that he could've made.

TLDR: R + L = J is the most likely theory, but that doesn't say much as there really isn't OVERWHELMING evidence. R + L + J isn't as strong as say, 2 + 2 = 4.

Also, I'm new to the forum, there is some good stuff here guys, nice work.

WTF does v96 mean? Is this the 96th thread on this topic? If so, LOL.

[BearQueen87]

I tend to lean towards R + L = J, but why does everyone seem to think there is such strong evidence for this? It's definitely the best theory, but it's not the only valid one. I'd say it like this, 50% chance its R + L = J, 10% B + A = J, 100% chance GRRM is enjoying everyone squirm thinking about this. His parents could be anyone. Assuming he is R + L = J, he's a huge let down for someone completing a prophesy. The story isn't over yet, but so far he's made about every stupid decision that he could've made.

TLDR: R + L = J is the most likely theory, but that doesn't say much as there really isn't OVERWHELMING evidence. R + L + J isn't as strong as say, 2 + 2 = 4.

Also, I'm new to the forum, there is some good stuff here guys, nice work.

WTF does v96 mean? Is this the 96th thread on this topic? If so, LOL.

1) Welcome to the threads

2) Yes there are 95 previous incarnations of this topic

3) R+L = J is way more than 50%. At this point, I'd say it's more like 99.9% true.

4) The evidence is very overwhelming. I would suggest reading the Citadel's take on it, the link for which can be found in the first post of every R+L = J thread

5) Once you've read that, feel free to pick it apart. I guarantee we've got answers and solutions to your questions and nitpicks.

6) I don't consider B+A = J to be even remotely possible because of the timeline.

[Alia of the knife]

Going back to genetics, and reading some of the statements, we see that not only did the Targaryens engage in incest, but so too did the Starks to a lesser degree, why aren't their genes more prevalent?

And going back to my other question on the Valaeryons of Driftmmark, they seem to have kept their own looks of silver hair and purple eyes, have they engaged in incest as wellto keep their looks and dragons blood, or confine their marriages to the people of Lys where there may be more of that blood? :dunno:

Because even their current descriptions seem indicate there has been no such diversity as with the Targaryens, the Martells and the Daynes.

[Ser Creighton]

Ok seriously who the hell is Lyarra?

[RumHam]

Alia:

We don't have direct textual evidence, but considering their close ties (and frequent marriages) to the Targs and the persistence of Valyrian features within the family, I'd say yes.

From the sample on Aegon's conquest:

It had long been the custom amongst the dragonlords of Valyria to wed brother to sister, to keep the bloodlines pure, but Aegon took both his sisters to bride.

Since the Velaryons were not dragonlords it seems unlikely they would be practicing incest.

[RumHam]

Ok seriously who the hell is Lyarra?

Ned's mother.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

Just replying to this to say that I really loved the latest Radio Westeros!!

ETA: from the last thread, but Jon is a secret Targ AND a unicorn?? Excellent.

Thanks BQ!!

Glad you enjoyed! And I can promise that the next one will be of particular interest to the denizens of this thread ;)

[BearQueen87]

Ok seriously who the hell is Lyarra?

Brandon, Ned, Lyanna and Benjen's mother. From the new family tree? (I think)

[MtnLion]

. . .

As requested, but I am too slow to get on page one.

Ned's recurring dream, so don't presume to argue against it because it is a fever dream. It is recurring, and it holds deep meaning for Ned. It makes sense to Ned. It is a cause of much of his grief. He killed three of the finest knights he had ever known, and the best of all, Ser Arthur Dayne.

Ned and his friends arrive at the tower, as they had in life. Again, this is reality based dreaming. This actually occurred, and the dialog is likely paraphrased in Ned's memory, because he is unable to get a lifelike image of his friends. He vividly remembers the three Kingsguard, though.

"I looked for you on the Trident,” Ned said to them.

Ned knew about Prince Lewyn Martell and Ser Jonothor Darry dying at the Trident. He knew about Ser Barristan Selmy slaying twelve of his and Robert’s friends before being wounded so severely that he may have died without Robert sending his own maester to tend to Selmy’s wounds. He knew that Ser Jaime Lannister had been in the Red Keep during the battle. He expected to see these three at the Trident, too.

“We were not there,” Ser Gerold answered.

From the app we know that Ser Arthur Dayne and Ser Oswell Whent are with Prince Rhaegar when Lyanna enters the company of the prince. There is no surprise about events on the Trident expressed by any of these three. Evidently they are aware of the battle, and the outcome.

“Woe to the Usurper if we had been,” said Ser Oswell.

This states that Robert is considered an usurper by these Kingsguard, or at least by Ser Oswell Whent. He does use the term "we" and implies that Robert could not have won the battle at the Trident if these three had been present at the battle. They know that Robert has been crowned and taken the throne as an usurper. This also tells us that they know of an heir that is still living that has a better claim than Robert.

“When King's Landing fell, Ser Jaime slew your king with a golden sword, and I wondered where you were.”

Ned relays that King's Landing has fallen and King Aerys is dead by Jaime’s hand. Ned knows that the primary duty of the Kingsguard is to protect and defend the king. He wonders why it is that these three Kingsguard were not with King Aerys when King’s Landing fell.

“Far away,” Ser Gerold said, “or Aerys would yet sit the Iron Throne, and our false brother would burn in seven hells.”

Ser Gerold Hightower condemns Jaime as a Oathbreaker, and implies that he or one of these others would certainly kill Jaime rather than let him slay the king if they had been present. Ser Gerold is expressing his support for King Aerys. He also relays that when Jaime slew Aerys that none of the three had been in a position to react, they were too far away.

“I came down on Storm's End to lift the siege,” Ned told them, and the Lords Tyrell and Redwyne dipped their banners, and all their knights bent the knee to pledge us fealty. I was certain you would be among them.”

Ned tells them that all remaining forces surrendered to him, and pledged fealty to Robert and Ned. He expected to find the last of the Kingsguard with these forces, but again was surprised to note that they were not. This is an invitation for these Kingsguard to surrender to him.

“Our knees do not bend easily,” said Ser Arthur Dayne.

Ser Arthur Dayne speaks for the group, and says that they will not surrender. Of note, when Ned approaches the tower Ser Oswell Whent is on his knee. That fact and this line can amount to a subtle clue that the Kingsguard have already bent their knees at the tower, before Ned arrives.

“Ser Willem Darry is fled to Dragonstone, with your queen and Prince Viserys. I thought you might have sailed with him.”

Ned has offered the Kingsguard the option of surrendering to him, which they rejected. This line is disjointed in the timeline because Ned is changing his tactic. He holds the Kingsguard, especially these three in high regard, even years later. He called them a shining example to the rest of the world. In an attempt to find some talking point that would lead to a peaceful solution, Ned tells them that their queen and prince have fled to Dragonstone without Kingsguard protection. This is an opening for the Kingsguard to discuss a tactical withdrawal. It is within Ned’s capabilities, as second in command, to provide safe passage. It would be in his, his friend’s and the Kingsguard’s best interests to allow them to go to Dragontsone to carry out their duties there.

“Ser Willem is a good man and true,” said Ser Oswell.

Ser Willem Darry is a brother to Ser Jonothor Darry of the Kingsguard, and known well to these members of the Kingsguard. They are admitting that they know that "Prince" Viserys is without a Kingsguard. They have ignored the insult of labeling Viserys as a prince, when he should be considered the king.

“But not of the Kingsguard,” Ser Gerold pointed out. “The Kingsguard does not flee.”

On the night that news of the Trident arrived at King's Landing Aerys ordered that Rhaella and Viserys be taken to Dragonstone for their safety, as it appeared that King's Landing would shortly be under siege. Jaime was the only Kingsguard in King's Landing so Ser Willem Darry was drafted to protect the royal family members, while Jaime remained with King Aerys, Elia, and her children.

The Lord Commander recognizes that Ser Willem Darry is not Kingsguard, thus the queen and prince Viserys are not currently under Kingsguard protection. Taken together with Ned’s statement, it is easy to see that Ser Gerold Hightower sees leaving King Aerys' side at King’s Landing as fleeing from his duty, even if it was to protect Queen Rhaella and Prince Viserys.

If the Red Keep falls, and Aerys dies then Viserys was safe as long as he could stay alive on Dragonstone. The majority of the fighting men had gone with Rhaegar, and mustering enough men to defend the city or just the Red Keep may be difficult. Without a Kingsguard to protect them Darry, Viserys and Daenerys are nearly captured and turned over to Robert. They manage to escape just before Dragonstone surrenders.

“Then or now,” said Ser Arthur. He donned his helm.

Arthur reiterates that the Kingsguard would have chosen to stay in King's Landing over fleeing with Rhaella and Viserys. The primary duty of the Kingsguard is to protect and defend the king, they would choose to stay with King Aerys (then) as Rhaella and Viserys flee King's Landing. It appears that these three Kingsguard have decided that they have an obligation, by their vow, to stay and protect and defend someone at the tower (now).

“We swore a vow,” explained old Ser Gerold.

The Lord Commander is citing the Kingsguard’s vow as the reason that they must stay. He has decided that all three would remain, and we must presume that the reason is to protect the king. Several things contribute to this conclusion:

•The White Bull, as Ser Gerold is known, is quite the stickler when it comes to the comport of Kingsguard duties.

•Ser Gerold does not have a friendship with Rhaegar that would favor this decision.

•Ser Gerold has already stated that he would slay Jaime to protect Aerys.

•Ser Gerold’s decision to keep Arthur and Oswell with him only protects the king (the primary purpose of the Kingsguard) if the king is present at the tower.

•Ned knows that these men were honoring their Kingsguard vow. There is no other vow that Ned is ever aware of. He thinks of these three as the epitome of honor and skill. A shining example for the world.

Reading these three statements, The Kingsguard does not flee (from its duty to protect King Aerys) then or (from its duty to protect Jon) now, because (explained) we swore a vow; puts things in a very clear light.

Ned’s wraiths moved up beside him, with shadow swords in hand. They were seven against three.

GRRM has confirmed that with equal equipment Ser Barristan Selmy and Ser Arthur Dayne are a close match, with Dawn in hand Ser Arthur is superior. Ser Barristan single-handedly rescued King Aerys from captivity at Duskendale. Ser Jaime Lannister expresses his awe at the defeat of the Kingswood Brotherhood and the Smiling Knight, who was slain by Ser Arthur. In the screenplay Jaime slays a dozen men before being subdued at the battle of the Whispering Woods. Kingsguard practice daily among themselves.

One of the seven is a crannogman, not known for fighting skill. Another is Ethan Glover, recently released from the Black Cells, and likely weak as well as just being Brandon's squire. It seems that even facing the odds that they do, the Kingsguard should prevail. Something odd happened, and I really look forward to GRRM telling us about it.

“And now it begins,” said Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning. He unsheathed Dawn and held it with both hands. The blade was pale as milkglass, alive with light.

The most important (first) battle of the Jon Targaryen dynasty. The mindset of the Kingsguard is that they will win the battle, and keep the secret at the tower safe until they can move to safety. There is nothing here that would indicate any fatalism on the part of Arthur. It suggests that Arthur expects to win, though we know with hindsight that they did not, and that at least Ned and Howland are aware of the secret.

“No,” Ned said with sadness in his voice. “Now it ends.”

Ned knows the outcome, and he regrets that he had to kill the three finest knights in the kingdom, even years later. If Lyanna had been kidnapped or mistreated while they were present Ned would not have that favorable view of these men. These three Kingsguard are undoubtedly living up to their "vow to guard the king", in Hightower's own words, to gain Ned's greatest respect. As fate has it, because these men were so honorable, on both sides of this meeting, they were fated to fight to the bitter end, for honor’s sake.

We also have the text of the white book about Ser Gerold Hightower from the screenplay. Dispatched by King Areys to locate the crown Prince Rhaegar Targaryen in the wake of Robert Baratheon's rebellion. Died in the Red Mountains of Dorne alongside his sworn brothers, Ser Arthur Dayne and Ser Oswell Whent. After refusing to bow to the new King, Robert Baratheon, all three were defeated by a small force led by Eddard Stark of Winterfell.

[Kingmonkey]

Yet. Always in motion the future is ;) Considering Robert's 'distracted' rule, the multiplayer game of thrones, the Martells thirst for revenge (and love of plots), the Tyrrells ambiguous politics and all the scattered Targaryen loyalists more than happy to rally behing Rhaegar's heir and three shining examples vouching for him... I wouldn't be so categorical.

The difference is that while Ned wanted the survival of Jon (not that they could be sure of that, not even Lyanna was sure of that), they wanted the survival of a dynasty they were sworn to. Ned would never (and did never) turn against against his king and best friend to put his nephew on the throne. Therefore the inevitable clash. The KG fight to secure the survival of a dynasty (key at that stage being secrecy aka the obliteration of every possible leak/witness). Or die trying.

They couldn't be sure that Ned wanted the survival of Jon, but the fact that he turned up there on the quiet with only his 6 most trusted men makes that look like the most likely thing. It makes little sense for them to not explore this possibility.

The battle for the throne was over, for the present. The secret of a new heir would not have changed anything; even with fractious Martells, ambiguous Tyrells and random loyalists, the rebellion was over and won, despite the fact that these groups already believed there was a legitimate Targ heir, Viserys, still alive. However shining the 3KG, these groups aren't suddenly going to back a baby if they've given up on Viserys.

So the best the 3KG can hope for is the survival of the baby until some future time when the dynasty can reassert itself. Interestingly despite the apparent fact that the 3KG fought and lost, they still got what they were hoping for with the survival of the baby, so what good was fighting? All it achieved is that they were no longer around to help protect the baby.

[Dorian Martell]

HODOR!!!!!!!!

[Patriam1066]

1) Welcome to the threads

2) Yes there are 95 previous incarnations of this topic

3) R+L = J is way more than 50%. At this point, I'd say it's more like 99.9% true.

4) The evidence is very overwhelming. I would suggest reading the Citadel's take on it, the link for which can be found in the first post of every R+L = J thread

5) Once you've read that, feel free to pick it apart. I guarantee we've got answers and solutions to your questions and nitpicks.

6) I don't consider B+A = J to be even remotely possible because of the timeline.

Well, this objection has probably been raised before, but I have never understood Ned being terrorized by his promise to Lyanna, if he had in fact kept that promise (assuming it's to protect Jon, her son), why the incessant nagging in his subconscious?. It could've been any number of things, namely someone causing Ned to have nightmares; it's very plausible that I missed that in the text.

Admittedly, I have no hard evidence to counter the R + L = J theory. At best I could glean some circumstantial BS from the text, like the above argument. I just tend to think that GRRM is the type of author who would deliberately place a red herring to make the eventual outcome more entertaining. For instance, Aegon could certainly be Aegon, he could be a Blackfyre from the female line, or he could simply be a boy with Valyrian features from Essos raised from infancy to be a moral king. It just seems to me that saying something is 99.9% certain in these books isn't a safe bet. But again, I'm just throwing out ideas, I actually do believe that Rhaegar and Lyanna are Jon Snow's parents. Honestly, I don't want them to be, since Jon getting manipulated at the Wall disappoints me greatly if he is the Ice and Fire, blood of the First Men and of the Dragon.

But yeah, since this is the 96th thread on the topic, I'm not going to bring up any more objections until I have some better evidence. Don't want to make a forum reharsh old arguments that I missed in the previous thousand pages of boards lol.

[Kingmonkey]

So while the dream may not be relied on to be a word-for-word recreation of the actual events, it is even more useful, perhaps, than a literal recreation would be and gives the reader essential information that is not "incorrect" information. For example, Ned would not dream about the KG talking about keeping their vows unless Ned actually believed that the KG believed they were keeping their vows at that time (regardless whether those precise words were actually spoken at that time). So GRRM is being a little cagey when he says the dream is not literal because the dream actually may provide better information than if it were literal.

No disagreement there! It's certainly a very telling dream, but may be purely about Ned's feelings towards the 3KG and the events that took place there and have very little resemblance to the actual events that took place. I'll point again to my suggestion in the post you quoted that the language is very ritualised, and closely akin to the Celtic storytelling tradition of the "porter tale". Whatever happened at the ToJ made Ned very unhappy, and I think it's reasonable to assume that this wasn't just the death of 5 of his friends and Lyanna. I'd suggest that the dream is a piece of storytelling in Ned's subconcious; part self-justification, part honouring of his foes, part false memory of a traumatic incident.

[Debra Morgan]

I tend to lean towards R + L = J, but why does everyone seem to think there is such strong evidence for this? It's definitely the best theory, but it's not the only valid one. I'd say it like this, 50% chance its R + L = J, 10% B + A = J, 100% chance GRRM is enjoying everyone squirm thinking about this. His parents could be anyone. Assuming he is R + L = J, he's a huge let down for someone completing a prophesy. The story isn't over yet, but so far he's made about every stupid decision that he could've made.

TLDR: R + L = J is the most likely theory, but that doesn't say much as there really isn't OVERWHELMING evidence. R + L + J isn't as strong as say, 2 + 2 = 4.

Also, I'm new to the forum, there is some good stuff here guys, nice work.

WTF does v96 mean? Is this the 96th thread on this topic? If so, LOL.

I think so too

[BearQueen87]

HODOR!!!!!!!!

All is right with the world now. We've been Hodor'd

Well, this objection has probably been raised before, but I have never understood Ned being terrorized by his promise to Lyanna, if he had in fact kept that promise (assuming it's to protect Jon, her son), why the incessant nagging in his subconscious?. It could've been any number of things, namely someone causing Ned to have nightmares; it's very plausible that I missed that in the text.

We're not sure what the extent of Ned's promise is. Everyone around him thinks it's just to bury Lyanna at WF, but it's clearly more than that. It probably has to do with keeping Jon safe and raising him as his own son. The promise, though, means that Ned has to live a lie that he dishonored himself and Cat by having sex outside of marriage and fathering a bastard. He has to live with this lie and all the other lies. That weighs heavy on him.

I just tend to think that GRRM is the type of author who would deliberately place a red herring to make the eventual outcome more entertaining

He does place red herrings, but--one of my favorite quotes from GRRM--is that in a murder mystery if all the clues lead to the Butler, then it better be the butler. All the clues are leading to R+L = J

[Debra Morgan]

He does place red herrings, but--one of my favorite quotes from GRRM--is that in a murder mystery if all the clues lead to the Butler, then it better be the butler. All the clues are leading to R+L = J

Not all of the clues lead to R+L=J. Most of them lead to Lyanna is mother, but there are no strong evidences that Rhaegar is the father. The one evidence is guards.