Wildlings reaction to the betrayl of LC snow

[The Drunkard]

Bowen has perfectly understandable reasons to kill Jon then and there that don't rely on any sort of conspiracy or orders from KL. Jon had just read out the PL and announced his plans for Hardhome and Ramsay, revealing:

 

1 - Stannis is dead, the Boltons are angry that Jon supported him, and the Boltons are coming.

2 - Jon was aware of (or perhaps responsible for) Mance, the deserter-turned-invader, surviving.

3 - Jon sent Mance to steal his sister from the Boltons.

4 - Jon is sending the NW on a suicide mission to Hardhome, led by its long-time enemy Tormund.

5 - Jon is going to ride south and attack the Boltons with an army of wildlings.

 

For someone deeply committed to the NW a spontaneous assassination isn't hard to understand. Bowen wanted to shut this shit down quickly even if he knew (and he would have) that it meant dying.

[HiccupTheGrey]

The Wildings are not going to attack the NW because they will be reminded that the NW contain many of the their offsprings as captives.

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

When you die and are returned you lose a part of yourself, that much is made clear. Being betrayed, dying and being resurrected, technically not being the same person as before, three very solid ways that could remove Jon from the watch. Ways that would make sense. Saying but Jon isn't the sort of guy who would do this is silly, it's been pound into our head that his death and the trauma of its circumstances will change him fundamentally. Maybe his death will make him a cold hearted pragmatist. Maybe he wakes up sees the Watch is basically gone and decides, let's beat these White Walkers and then get the hell away from this wall. If he did that wouldn't it make total sense? It doesn't matter what vows he took if he stays at the wall bound to the Watch in order to keep some vow he swore to, he'd be a fool.

[Logicsbane]

Agreed.  I think this is what sets off the powder keg.  Things at the Wall are going to be nuts.
 
Actually, almost everywhere is going to be crazy.  So excited for this book to come out.

As am I, but I have a feeling the epilogue will be tedious on first ( no doubt important tho) and a whole bunch of other stuff from Winterfell, Mereen, Dorne, KL, and Faegon before they get to what we all want to know now!

[McLovinSMU]

Specific to the Queen's Men, nobody here mentions the Pink Letter as it relates to them. The contents of the Pink Letter are public knowledge (or soon will be)-the Queen's Men have learned their King is dead. Melisandre has learned Stannis is dead. The Queen and Princess have learned Stannis is dead. As far as they know Azor Azai and his magic sword are dead.

The Queen's Men (and remember the best of Stannis's men are/were with him) are going to have a crisis of faith; the Queen's Men have gambled everything for the hope of lands and title and as far as they know, they are marooned in a winter wasteland.

And one of their men was just killed by a giant.

The Queen's Men are going to react and it is going to be a big part of what I think is a massive disaster at the wall.

[Curled Finger]

Great topic.   All these arguments are well explained and plausible.   I was particularly pleased to see Cersei's threats and the half repaired chain mail mentioned.   I'm not sure I buy riots and war at the Wall--YET.   I am certain Mel is at her fires.   When did she ever care what or when Selyse knew anything?  Jon's determination to ride on Winterfel reminded me of Jaime's king slaying.   It's a broken vow for all the right reasons.  And Benjen warned Jon off taking NW vows several times in AGOT.  Tried to look up the residents of all 19 castles along the wall but having difficulty connecting, so pardon any inaccuracy hence forth...There are 19 castles along the wall.   I believe 17 of the castles, including Castle Black are either manned or dedicated.   There is a castle somewhere near the middle--Witch's Something Castle that isn't manned or promised.   Perhaps more importantly, Selyse is supposed to take up residence in the Night Fort PDQ.  All 3 factions, the Wildlings, the remaining NW brothers and Stannis/Selyse retinue all have multiple places to flee to.   The horror of the NF is an entire subplot of its own and it makes narrative sense that Selyse or her people will move in right away.   I would go so far as to predict Stannis will reside there, too, but that could be my own misinterpretation of the flames.   Point is, even if CB is deserted for whatever reason, riot, mutiny, exodus, the Wall is still more healthily fortified than it has been in hundreds of years.   That has to play in this somehow.   I believe events at the Wall depend heavily upon Jon's actual life status.   If he lives I expect 4 quick but very brutal deaths and a bunch of dopey QM being beat into submission with a quickness.   Probably lots of sneaking off after that as well.   If he's comatose or unable to communicate there should be lots of high tension and further conspiracy to overthrow all the perceived "heads" of each faction.   Like the Wildlings taking Shireen and burning her instead of the popular theory.  If Jon is indeed dead by most accounts CB should be pretty much deserted in short order by whatever means.   All in all, Jon's stabbing should have shocked everyone much like the Red Wedding did in the Riverlands.  Even the far North will have broken men running amuck.  

[TreeFaces]

I am intrigued as it all comes down to how (and if) Jon gets resurrected and by WHOM.  Not that Mel has any true loyalties to the QM, she is closer to them than the willings and if she plays a part in Jon coming back then it just adds to the confusion.  The wildlings hold the power right now and as previously stated, I think will force the NW out of CB.

 

Also, how do Alys Karstark and the Thenns factor in?  Will they even have an influence?  Alys may be just as surprised and pissed as many wildlings as Jon made decisions to help protect her family.

[nickdt]

I am intrigued as it all comes down to how (and if) Jon gets resurrected and by WHOM.  Not that Mel has any true loyalties to the QM, she is closer to them than the willings and if she plays a part in Jon coming back then it just adds to the confusion.  The wildlings hold the power right now and as previously stated, I think will force the NW out of CB.

 

Also, how do Alys Karstark and the Thenns factor in?  Will they even have an influence?  Alys may be just as surprised and pissed as many wildlings as Jon made decisions to help protect her family.

Alys Karstark and the Thenns are not at the wall, they are marching towards Karhold to reclaim it, so they likely have no influence. But i have no doubt Alys will be pissed if she hears it, possibly leading the entire Karstark and Thenn force loyal to her, to the wall, because she is not as naive as Sansa was on that age.