Wildlings reaction to the betrayl of LC snow

[cwwagner]

i am definately not new to the forums but i am new to posting on here so bear with me.

Yesterday i finished my second reread of the series in my anticipation for TWOW. Something stuck out to me in the last Jon chapter that i felt like i had to post on here. As i said im not new to these forums especially the TWOW section, however i have not seen any topics regarding what is going to happen at the wall besides the ever so spammed "revival" of Jon. Obviously there is alot of talk of how Mel might revieve him in some fashion, or he will be living warged through ghost, however i dont want to focus on that thought right now, and rather i would like to focus on everything surrounding the daggers in the dark.

Prior to jon being stabbed, there is the gathering at shield hall where it is noted (and talked about a lot previously) that the wildlings out number both the NW and queens men roughly 5:1. In the hall jon declares that he will move south and in response to this he gets an overwhelming ovation from the wildlings, but nothing form NW or queens men.

With this previous thought in mind, i want you to think back to the wildlings walking through the wall in jons previous chapter, many of them showed him hateful looks, others thanked him, some swore an oath to the watch, but IMO most swore their oath soley to jon snow for his generosity to let them through the wall.

So this leaves me at a question, if jon is gone ( only if it is for a short time) what is going to happen between the wildlings and the queens men + NW?

The wildlings are going to see the man who let them through the wall to share their lands betrayed, and "murdered" plus its no secret amongst the wildlings that NW and queens men (besides a select few) do not want them there at all. So how will the wildlings react to this betrayl, how will the NW brothers react to losing the one man who had some sort of connection with the wildlings? IMO no one is safe and there could be some drastic consequences.

There are some things that i am leaving out, i have no doubt about that because i dont have my book in front of me, but im at work and couldnt get this off my mind, so i turn to all of you, and i hope that i can get some good thoughts/responses/theories out of this. If anyone knows of any previous threds regarding this topic please link that into the comments

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Don't lump Bowen Mash and his three cronies together with the majority of the Nights Watch or the Queen's Men! Almost every Crow supports Jon, and Mel will bring the Queen's men in line.

[CountFJM]

I don't know if the NW overwhelmingly support Jon Snow (I forget his name, but the temporary commander that Cotter Pyke left at Eastwatch had been one of Thorne's cronies and JS had been a little unsettled by that appoint), but certainly they are divided. Even builders and stewards who didn't approve of JS or openly thought he had betrayed the watch would have balked at his open assassination. Hell, half of them were manning the wall or weren't around when JS gave his speech, who knows how they'll react when they get back and learn the LC was murdered by his own brothers. Also, it sounded like the Rangers and, in general, the lower-class/grunts of the NW supported Jon a lot more than the lords and knights.

re: The Queen's Men, I'm a lot less sure. Selyse isn't the sharpest tack and she seems to dislike everything and everyone not within her inner circle, but Stannis backed the plan to let the wildlings through and, frankly, probably would've backed Jon Snow openly marching with a Wildling force on Winterfell. They're such a small and insignificant force on the wall tho (mostly just a handful of drunkards, cowards, cripples, etc. Stannis left behind), I think they'll be a lot more scared of the entire situation than thinking if they'd support the wildlings or NW in a confrontation (Mel aside).

[TheStrang3r]

Don't lump Bowen Mash and his three cronies together with the majority of the Nights Watch or the Queen's Men! Almost every Crow supports Jon, and Mel will bring the Queen's men in line.

Im not so sure the queen will be able to keep her men in line if things go to shit. They really don't like the wildlings and wun-wun just tore one of their most respected soldiers limb from limb. They were already kind of unruly trying to start a fight with Jon and stealing off with wildling women in the night.

[Prince of the North]

Yeah, I think the shit's gonna hit the fan at the Wall...and rightly so ;) I mean, it was already a powder keg ready to blow up at any moment and then the Wun Wun incident and Jon Snow's betrayal/assassination happen basically simultaneously. I don't believe there's much of a realistic way in which everybody just sits back and lets "calmer heads prevail". :dunno:

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

The Wildlings are going to go nuts because from appearances alone it looks as if they're under attack. The Wun Wun attack, Jon Snow the only guy on their side, getting stabbed. They'll fight because it looks like a directed attack against them, and this foolish attack on Jon will bring about the end of the Nights Watch. It'll be brutally ironic because when Jon wakes his vows won't matter anymore because they'll be no Watch to hold him to his vows anymore.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

The Wildlings are going to go nuts because from appearances alone it looks as if they're under attack. The Wun Wun attack, Jon Snow the only guy on their side, getting stabbed. They'll fight because it looks like a directed attack against them, and this foolish attack on Jon will bring about the end of the Nights Watch. It'll be brutally ironic because when Jon wakes his vows won't matter anymore because they'll be no Watch to hold him to his vows anymore.

As long as Jon lives, the NightS Watch lives and holds him to his vows.

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

As long as Jon lives, the NightS Watch lives and holds him to his vows.

Unless he decides he doesn't anymore. And with an army of Wildlings at his back and the indisputable proof that the people he swore vows to tried to kill him, I really don't see anybody trying to stop him from leaving.

It always blows my mind that people actually expect him to stay at the wall after what happened. He'd be a fool to stay, a complete and utter fool.

[cwwagner]

Yeah, I think the shit's gonna hit the fan at the Wall...and rightly so ;) I mean, it was already a powder keg ready to blow up at any moment and then the Wun Wun incident and Jon Snow's betrayal/assassination happen basically simultaneously. I don't believe there's much of a realistic way in which everybody just sits back and lets "calmer heads prevail". :dunno:

exactly what i was trying to get at, there is nothing hiding that there is animosity between many of the NW brothers/ queens men and the wildlings, so once they see jon betrayed and that ser patrek tried to attack wun wun something is going to awake in alot of them realizing that there isnt anything stopping them from fulfilling what was once their goal, taking castle black and invadig the realm, its all going to come down to who the wildlings will follow and where his loyalty lies, its going to be very interesting the way that all of this plays out especially becasue they are well, wildlings and they can turn their cloaks on any one at any time and have little to no remorse

[sabrecmc]

I personally expect the Wall to fall and the NW, such as it is at the moment, to fall apart. I think we've seen enough hints that Jon understands that there are vows to hold the NW together as an institution and the vow that matters to protect the realm...if it comes to choosing, we know which one he'll choose. So, basically, vow-schmow. GRRM can get him out of it if he wants.

As for how the wildlings will react, I find that hard to predict without any certainty of how long Jon will be out of the picture, presumably in Ghost. Are we talking a couple of hours and then he's back to his body or will Ghost be heading to the Lands of Always Winter and we're talking weeks?

[Prince of the North]

I think the idea that if the Wall falls and/or the NW ceases to exist Jon will have an "out" from his vows, etc. is quite flawed. I don't really see Jon looking for an "out" from his NW vows to protect the realms of men. You see, even if the Wall/NW is destroyed the reason for swearing those vows in the first place still exists and I don't think Jon will ever forsake them. It seems to me that Jon has always chosen to honor his vows to the NW when he has been tempted to set them aside or, indeed, easily could have given them up :dunno:

[cwwagner]

I think the idea that if the Wall falls and/or the NW ceases to exist Jon will have an "out" from his vows, etc. is quite flawed. I don't really see Jon looking for an "out" from his NW vows to protect the realms of men. You see, even if the Wall/NW is destroyed the reason for swearing those vows in the first place still exists and I don't think Jon will ever forsake them. It seems to me that Jon has always chosen to honor his vows to the NW when he has been tempted to set them aside or, indeed, easily could have given them up :dunno:

i agree, we saw him honor his vows (most of) when he with the wildlings, we saw him decline stannis offer, and whs to say that if the wall/NW is destroyed that jon will not still stand as the sword in the darkness, watching over the realms of men. personally i think that if he survives until the end of all of this we going to see another huge lands/titles offer thrown at him and once again he will be humble and stay at the wall or whats left of it and live a simple peaceful life in the north (yes that statment is getting very far ahead of myself)

[too hot to handle]

I believe a lot of this hinges on Tormund because he is the de facto leader of the wildlings and he became if not friends at least very close allies with Jon. Jon shows him the letter first and Tormund gives him his backing at Shield Hall. I believe Tormund will see what's happening and probably assemble some wildlings and begin attacking those that killed Jon but not the whole NW. He knows who the "true enemy" is. I am not sure what will happen to the queens men but it is not unreasonable to assume there will at least be a small skirmish in retaliation for Wun Wun killing a knight. For the most part, I believe this will lead to Tormund and the wildlings defending the wall against the Others. I think most of this can happen with or without Jon being alive.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I think the idea that if the Wall falls and/or the NW ceases to exist Jon will have an "out" from his vows, etc. is quite flawed. I don't really see Jon looking for an "out" from his NW vows to protect the realms of men. You see, even if the Wall/NW is destroyed the reason for swearing those vows in the first place still exists and I don't think Jon will ever forsake them. It seems to me that Jon has always chosen to honor his vows to the NW when he has been tempted to set them aside or, indeed, easily could have given them up :dunno:

Spot on. Everything depends on Jon's ethics, and those don't allow him to search for an out this way.

[Panther2000]

I have brought up this point many times. I think that will be the turning point in the series( book). It is THE WALL that is keeping all the other lands safe at the moment. The last 2 LC were murdered by their own men( Jon will be out of the picture a bit, but he will be back). Tormund is going to flip out, all & all he does like jon( same as Mance). I am really looking forward to how this plays out in the book. The main fact is that the Wildings out number Everyone at the wall. So, they won't be taking orders from anyone. I do see Tormund staying on at the wall now & other to HH & down to winterfell ( to deal with Ramsay). Tormund knows what is coming & they know that they have to defend the wall otherwise they are all dead anyways. I really can't wait to read about the fight with the others & WW at the wall. Kind of reminds me of Helms Deep in TTT.

Just a thought about Ghost. If jon wargs into him, I don't see ghost killing off the Black brothers. They killed Jon because they thought that he was breaking his Oath, and while they were killing him they kept saying, for the Knights Watch( Damn I can't remember now :bang:), not to mention that some were crying while killing him. Then again, also before the meeting in the Hall, Ghost was going crazy( like Greywind) and going after some of the brothers( he knew what was coming) . Hell, I don't know what Ghost will do. I do think though, that if jon is in him, then Ghost will not attack.

Tormund will now be in charge at the wall. The Queen would be smart to stay in her room and out of sight. Burning people ( Fake Mance) wasn't a good thing. I can't say about The Red Lady( she too is in much danger)

I must say for me this story & Stannis @Winterfell is the most exciting part of the story now, Kings Landing comes in a distance 2nd.

[AtomixIGN]

It will be a mess for sure. Fighting and killing Castle Black will fall - I think a lot of the watch is still on Jon Snows side. But Jons closest followers have been sent away. One by one he gave his top lieutenants commands elsewhere. He only really has Leathers now. and Satin. They will all still support him and in the long term I think the NW will hold.

Bowen Marsh, Septon Cellador, and Othell Yarwick are dead men. Selyse too if she fusses.

[DMC]

While this is largely a reiteration/extension of what sabrecmc posted, I feel it's worth repeating. This whole argument about whether Jon will "break his vows" is moot - because he already has in the strictest sense. He himself acknowledges this literally a page and a half before getting stabbed (911 in my HC) when he thinks, "No man can ever say I made my brothers break their vows. If this is oathbreaking [marching to Winterfell], the crime is mine and mine alone."

Earlier, and perhaps most importantly, when sending Val to find Tormund, Jon thinks about breaking his word to Stannis to keep 'our princess' at Castle Black (515):

"Val is no princess, though. I told him that half a hundred times. It was a feeble sort of evasion, a sad rag wrapped around his wounded word. His father would never have approved. I am the sword the guards the realm of men, Jon reminded himself, and in the end, that must be worth more than one man's honor."

Jon's ADWD story is him consistently putting (at least what he thinks) what is best for the realm above any vow or personal honor. This is the ASOIF version of doing what you think is right regardless of your own interests, which is the essence of all heroic characters in literature. I don't think there's anything wrong with it. Moreover, Jon even allows himself a personal indulgence in sending Mance to save Arya and arguably goading Slynt into being executed. I don't see anyone really questioning his ethics with the former despite the fact it has nothing to do with NW vows. As long as Jon continues to act in (again, at least what he believes is) the interest of the realm, I think his ethics are fine. He doesn't necessarily need to stay at the Wall to do so, especially since dude was headed for the Bastard Showdown anyway.

As for the original topic, this is what has bothered me after recently re-reading as well - why did Bowen chose then to assassinate Jon. Apparently he believed this was the best way in which to ensure support from the Queen's Men, but as others have mentioned they're hardly a formidable force and, as Jon is want to remind us, Bowen is all about numbers. He must recognize that his only chance of survival is a VERY swift getaway, although who he retreats to would probably be a tough decision. Not to mention, doing so would be betraying the NW vows you just killed your LC for not upholding. So yeah, Marsh's lack of pretty basic logical planning seems very out of character to me, but not really a big deal - who really gives a shit about Marsh's motives.

[Dragon88]

Actually to BM and the group that stabbed Jon is that they are not suppose to interfere with the realm which is what Jon is doing and their thinking is to kill Jon because he is breaking the vow. They are not really thinking much about the aftermath but I can see their point of view. To them Jon is breaking his vow and as a result they are killing him.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Bowen Marsh, Septon Cellador, and Othell Yarwick are dead men. Selyse too if she fusses.

Othell Yarwick is not associated with Bowen Marsh. Nor is Septon Cellador part of the group trying to murder Jon in open sight.

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

Isn't not interfering in the realms of men more a practice instead of a rule?