Wildlings reaction to the betrayl of LC snow

[Lord of Nutella]

Well, there is a difference between a battle and a slaughter.

[Lord of Nutella]

Well, there is a difference between a battle and a slaughter.

[Hos the Hostage]

If you reread the Jon chapters of Game of Thrones immediately after Dance, you can't help but ask 'why Jon, why? maester Aemon and Lord Mormont warned you of everything'. For half of the first book, Jon broods about about oathbreaking, and its more similar to what he ultimately does in Dance, than his oathbreaking in Clash and Storm by joining wildlings.

About the immediate outcome of the Ides: Depends on who planned the pink letter, and who was the mastermind behind the assassination.
But ignoring all the theories, and taking everything as they seem to be at face value (eg: premises like tormund likes Jon, Mance wants to rescue Arya, Mel wants to help Stannis, Bowen Marsh likes Jon but was fed up with his maverick leadership,etc), this is what I think will happen:

Three major forces are present at the Wall:

1. The wildlings under the leadership of Tormund. . The prominent men among these wildlings have their sons/nephews/.. as hostages of the NW.

Although they outnumber other two factions, the wildlings are undisciplined, and may not obey Tormund blindly. Their attittude towards Jon is not unanimous. I'd say 70% will be ready to support Tormund, while 30% may act for their own ends. (Escape to south of the Wall, or join the opposite team maybe). Some redheaded man married three daughters to Stannis's bannermen. If a fight ensues between queens men and Tormund, this man and his people will choose to fight against Tormund.

2. The NW. They will be the most confused and hence slowest to react. I hope at least some of them will run to take care of Jon, like bring Clydas to stop him dying. If Bowen Marsh did something like Barbossa's mutiny against Jack Sparrow in Pirates of the Caribbean (first analogy that came to mind), especially since he had some two hours to talk to the NW when Jon was shut up with Tormund, then all of the NW is now against Jon thanks to some brainwashing. I think this unlikely. So, the NW, like the wildlings, are divided. I'd say 80% supports Jon, 20% with Bowen. Among the 80%, at least 10% will be huddled around Jon, the 50% dealing with the mutineers, the remaning men weighing their options(whats the point of supporting Jon when he is apparently dead?) or not cognizant of the situation.

3. the Queens men. the smallest faction. but I think these men will stay united. their immediate concern is/was ser Patrek. I am not sure of the timeline of the events before assassination, but did Ser Patrek try to steal Val after hearing Stannis is dead? If so, it was a particularly power-hungry move from him(trying to win winterfell with the wildlings), but I can't see what any of the queens men do without Stannis. Seeing Jon dead, most QM will be happy, because now they get a better LC like Selyse wishes. The catch is, Stannis is dead, and Jon died by attempting to extract vengeance for Stannis. If the QM were truly loyal to stannis, they should take up Jon's cause and march to WF with whichever wildlings were going to march with Jon. But none of the QM appears to be gritty enough for that, except may be Devan Seaworth, but no one is going to pay him any attention. The QM will look to seylse for the next action, and Selyse will do whatever Mel asks of her. Without Jon, QM is at some danger because if the assassinators were Lannister supporters, then the new NW leader can easily turn them out in the middle of Snow. They were an army when let in, now reduced to a bunch of weak men. Why should the Watch risk iron throne's wrath by shletering an usurper? Mel will be focused on Jon's revival. the wildlings hated her, but now they know she did not burn Mance. All in all, I think Tormund's wildlings+Mel's queen's men >> Marsh's black brothers.

[Ser-Hodor]

I enjoy this topic. I look at the players and what we know of them and where they are:

Scene of the crime: Val is likely atop her tower. Wun Wun is angry and panicking. Ser Patrek is in pieces. Jon is now facedown in the snow, surrounded by at least 4 NW with knives.

Shieldhall: A small army of Free Folk, with a clear mission ahead, having drinks. Minimal QM or NW present.

King's Tower: The Queen and her retinue. We do not know if they are aware of Pink Letter or the events happening.

This leaves us a few wildcards -

Melisandre: was present for the beginning of the Shieldhall speech, then left. Why would she leave before all was said and decided upon? Did she believe that Stannis was dead? Is she informing the queen?

Wun Wun: he liked Jon, and only spoke with Leathers in the NW. Unless people put away their weapons he isn't likely to calm down any time soon.

Tormund: a stone's throw from the scene, aligned with Jon with a small army that moments ago was ready to follow Jon. His deal was with Jon and the NW, not with the Queen's Men, so the possibility of a throwdown with them can happen.

Bowen Marsh & Co: remember, these guys were 'crying'. They didn't want this to happen, too late now.

So what I see happening is the following: Jon is face down, people start screaming and commotion ensues. Several NW rush to the scene, and what they see is a giant flailing a corpse around and their LC facedown in the snow. More blades are drawn. More Queen's Men come out to avenge Ser Patrek. Tormund and his small army come out to see what has happened, see Jon, and get ready for a fight. No single person can bring any more than a single faction to heel. Only Jon could have done that. If somehow the Free Folk can be calmed, they have a numerical advantage and hopefully dialogue can be reestablished. Otherwise, there will be a bloodbath.

Somewhere in this chaos, Mel and / or Val will have a part to play in calming down the people.

[Mrmanakan]

Jon is the king of the wildlings that are on this side of the wall. He says himself something along the lines "it's true the wildlings don't follow a name they follow the man" Jon is the man. He's shown strength and fairness to their people. In fact he's the only person (in a position of power) who really champions their cause. If Jon is truly dead (eventually resurrected or not) the NW is done for, the wall is done for. I hope the whole chain mail theory (Sam see's a coat of chain mail half made right outside Jon's room on his workbench) is true and that he is wearing it and is if anything unconscious but in no true danger. If he is dead and everyone around him thinks he's dead it's over. Slaughter slaughter slaughter. If The wildlings, which at this point follow Jon hands down, see him dead they will go on a blood frenzy. The queensmen, the crows, and anyone else even remotely involved will be killed (hostages or not) atleast at castle black. Bowen is a fool, as basically every chapter in DWD shows. Jon did break his vows but good luck explaining that to the wildlings.

I think there's only 2 possible outcomes.

A) Jon is dead (eventually resurrected or not) and a bloodbath ensues with pretty much the whole nights watch either fled or dead.

B) Jon is unconscious but not dead, tormund and the loyal NW around Jon take him for treatment and guard him. There will still be blood spilt. Bowen has some sort of plan and has executed parts of it he wasn't gonna just stab Jon and hope for the best. But if Jon's still alive he'll have most of the NW's support. If they believe he's dead they might flock to Bowen but to what end? A quick death I tell you.

As it's been stated over and over since ACoK the wildlings follow the man, they follow strength. In their eyes Jon is their leader, their king. 2 wildling kings killed in a year they ain't standing for that shit especially while their in a position of power. So every member in the nights watch, of the queens men and pretty much all of westeros better be prayin jons alive

[CountFJM]

The questions comes down to what (if any) plan Marsh and co. had beyond killing Jon - they might not have known about the pink letter or Jon's pending "betrayal," but it sure seemed pre-planned. How big was the conspiracy? Was Thorne and/or his ilk involved, or the men who cast lots for Janos Slynt? Were they connected in anyway with Qyburn/Cersei's plan in aFfC to have Jon killed off?

Reminded me a bit of Chett and the betrayers from the SoS prologue, the attack on the Fist of the First Men interrupted their well-laid out plans but they still took the opportunity to get Mormont when presented. Hopefully Marsh and co. meet the same end

[Talking Hodor]

Don't lump Bowen Mash and his three cronies together with the majority of the Nights Watch or the Queen's Men! Almost every Crow supports Jon, and Mel will bring the Queen's men in line.

This is true, but it's gonna be really tense until calmer heads prevail, and Wun Wun probably isn't done stomping.

I predict the Wildlings decide to take over command of the wall and give the Southrons and NW the choice of either doing things their way or receiving a Doc Martens dental plan courtesy of Wun Wun.

[Talking Hodor]

Jon doesn't seem to be someone who thinks in technicalities. He doesn't let the wildlings through because technically they are part of the realms of men. It is part of his justification but not a main point. He does it because it "feels" morally correct. He sees them as a group of people and not savages. In my opinion if he wakes up from either being gravely injured or revived, does he feel that he is still part of the NW? Who knows? Whatever he feels is best to protect the realm of men will determine what happens to NW.

He lets them through the wall out of mercy, in order to bolster the number of people taking a vested interest in the defense of the wall against the Others, and in order to deny the Others fresh corpses for their undead army. That's why he's risking so much to rescue the Wildlings at Hardhome - deny the Others their corpses.

I for one don't think he broke his vows. The NW would have rode out in force against the Wildlings coming up from the South threatening their existence if they had had the numbers. Now they do have the numbers, Ramsay or whoever is threatening their existence, and Jon decides to ride out in force down South to deal with it. It technically gets them involved in the wars of the kingdoms, but if the kingdoms don't want the NW to attack them, they shouldn't threaten their existence. Bowen Marsh and co. were out of line and were probably getting paid by Cersei to assassinate Jon.

I also think he was wearing armor and that his wounds aren't fatal. He's probably unconscious because even minor stab wounds fucking hurt, but he'll be up and about eventually. While he's out, he might warg Ghost, communicate with Bran, find out his parentage via a green dream, who knows?

Even if he is dead, he'll only be released from his vows if the NW is destroyed/disbanded - which is a far more likely scenario than the one that sees him dead and getting resurrected. The Wildlings might decide to take charge, rename the force at the wall the Free Folk's Army, do away with the ban on marriage and women, and allow people to serve for set periods of time rather than for life. Then Jon can quit once the danger has passed/whenever he wants.

[Talking Hodor]

Just remember George says winds of winter will open with two battles. Not three.

Perhaps Stannis and Roose won't face off but rather just freeze to death, and the battle of Ice is in the true North at the Wall, where the shit is about to hit the fan and the Others are about to breach (hence the unusually cold weather).

[tf13]

But what about the wildling hostages? They are an incredibly powerful bargaining chip- they are the sons of the wildling commanders, including Tormund.

The Wildlings could care less who you're the son of.

[Jay21]

The Wildlings could care less who you're the son of.

I think that's missing the point. These hostages mean something to their kin.

[Jay21]

Im not so sure the queen will be able to keep her men in line if things go to shit. They really don't like the wildlings and wun-wun just tore one of their most respected soldiers limb from limb. They were already kind of unruly trying to start a fight with Jon and stealing off with wildling women in the night.

Mel will keep the QM in line not Selyse.

[Rhaegar Targaryen's Ghost]

Don't lump Bowen Mash and his three cronies together with the majority of the Nights Watch or the Queen's Men! Almost every Crow supports Jon, and Mel will bring the Queen's men in line.

Agree with this. Even if they don't support Jon, I have a hard time believing they'll be willing to support the murder of the LC (the second one in a few short years)

[Sword of the Morgan]

Seems very possible that if Jon is resurrected (I kind of assume this will happen) he could be one of a very few men left in the Night's Watch.

[NorthernXY]

This is true, but it's gonna be really tense until calmer heads prevail, and Wun Wun probably isn't done stomping.

I predict the Wildlings decide to take over command of the wall and give the Southrons and NW the choice of either doing things their way or receiving a Doc Martens dental plan courtesy of Wun Wun.

Marsh isn't depicted as smart, he is just an accountant (no offense dad). The assassination of Jon in the presence of a giant he knows likes Jon, coupled with all the Free Folk who just celebrated following Jon south, signifying he's their leader is just stupid. With multiple people doing stabbing Jon, it had to have been premeditated, even if it was just after they slipped out, doing it when they did is asking for death.

The Wildlings could care less who you're the son of.

Yes and no. I think for their own leaders it doesn't matter, but the name Stark even resonates with the Free Folk. Maybe not in a good way, but in a sense that Stark means power. Even Osha and company when they find Bran in the woods hear Stark and think they can ransom him. Ygritte knows the tale of Bael the Bard and how the Starks have Free Folk blood.

They know he is a son of a Stark, he rode with them for a while, and even though he "betrayed" them, he is now their king, like Mance was their king. He sought out and provided them safety when he didn't have to, Tormund (his now "right hand man") is going to take-up Jon's cause because he understands Jon infiltrated them to protect his people then accepted Free Folk as his people as well.

What's happening in the North, Arya and Sam are really interesting. On my 2nd read through, I skipped pretty much everything that didn't have a connection with the northern plot line.

[The Reckoner]

Imagine if some wildlings slipped south, started a small reign of terror, and were taken down by Ramsay. Then Ramsay would be hailed as a hero and Stannis and the Nights Watch the villains for letting them through.

[Lord of Nutella]

I really dont think the ff and wildlings view jon as their king. He helped them, yes , and they probably know he is their best friend south of the wall and that they need him, but he is not their leader, even though some decided to join him south.

[Johnnyrocket]

GRRM hints that we will see alot of the Others in TWoW...I'm just going to throw in the wild card that maybe amidst all this chaos, the Others might reach the wall and pose a threat? In my years of reading this series I've always wondered how the Wall would break and the Others would get into the seven kingdoms. It seems that they have a pretty good friggin chance right now considering the most likely one to fulfill the prophecy of Azor Ahai is "dead" and the Wall harbors more chaos than worldstarhiphop right now.

[joluoto2]

I think there will be a riot, but once it's over I don't think the Wildlings will stay at the Wall. They'll just start to march south en masse, raiding everything on the way. So there will be two invasion waves: First the Wildlings, then the Others (who has no problems getting past a Wall that nobody watches).

[sj4iy]

I really dont think the ff and wildlings view jon as their king. He helped them, yes , and they probably know he is their best friend south of the wall and that they need him, but he is not their leader, even though some decided to join him south.

We clearly see Tormund deferring to Jon. The Wildling army that Jon recruits isn't filled with random people...those are the Wildling leaders. Jon has become a defacto leader to the Wildlings south of the Wall.