The Pink Letter- why it is written? (spoilers)

[Good Guy Garlan]

That stupid letter has kept me up for many nights...Personally I'm convinced that Mance wrote it to get his son back,he's the only one with all the information.

Also I think that if Ramsay had actually captured Mance he wouldn't tell him about his son and Val

The spearwives could have told him under torture

[butterbumps!]

To recognize the baby he needs to visit Val. Something he is not allowed to.

Oh, all right then. That's what I think as well.

Yea, I think Rams-- with the specific motive and intent I mentioned, is the likeliest candidate. That said, I'll also defend the Mel-Mance angle as an alternative.

But on the issue of whether Mance knows that's his son or not. It's up in the air, but as of Jon I, DwD, Mel mentioned that she was considering sparing Mance. Jon III is when Mance is burned. Between Jon VI +VII is Mel I, when Mance leaves for the Arya mission. Mance, as Rattleshirt, has been wandering around freely since at least just before Jon III, if not as early as right after Jon I (and if it happens in and around Jon II, then both babies are still at the Wall). I do really think there's a chance that Mance has gotten close enough to the baby to realize it's not his.

[Little Member]

That's another reason you can take the letter for simply what it says. Ramsay, or the Boltons, or whoever would have no motivation for taking up responsibility of guarding the Wall. That is the one motivation left out of any of this conjecture. Who'd want to take Jon's place and be responsible for the Wall? Noone. The only people who'd have motivation for wanting Jon out of the picture are the one's who stabbed him. The NW. Anyone else not NW would only want things to stay as they are.

[Ingelheim]

Yea, I think Rams-- with the specific motive and intent I mentioned, is the likeliest candidate. That said, I'll also defend the Mel-Mance angle as an alternative.

But on the issue of whether Mance knows that's his son or not. It's up in the air, but as of Jon I, DwD, Mel mentioned that she was considering sparing Mance. Jon III is when Mance is burned. Between Jon VI +VII is Mel I, when Mance leaves for the Arya mission. Mance, as Rattleshirt, has been wandering around freely since at least just before Jon III, if not as early as right after Jon I (and if it happens in and around Jon II, then both babies are still at the Wall). I do really think there's a chance that Mance has gotten close enough to the baby to realize it's not his.

Yes, but isn't Val taking care of the baby? She's a captive, which means the baby is with her in her sort of prison. Even as Rattleshirt, I doubt he can get a 100 meters close to her and him.

[butterbumps!]

That's another reason you can take the letter for simply what it says. Ramsay, or the Boltons, or whoever would have no motivation for taking up responsibility of guarding the Wall. That is the one motivation left out of any of this conjecture. Who'd want to take Jon's place and be responsible for the Wall? Noone. The only people who'd have motivation for wanting Jon out of the picture are the one's who stabbed him. The NW. Anyone else not NW would only want things to stay as they are.

No, the Boltons have reason to take Jon out of the picture. They've just lost Arya, Arya was a fake anyway, and now that that's out of the bag, the fear is that the North could rally behind Jon as the next Stark-ish candidate. The Boltons either don't know about the Others, or do, and that's part of their plan (meaning, they do not oppose the Others, and therefore don't have need of the Watch). Either way, from the Bolton POV, Jon is what needs to be taken out.

Yes, but isn't Val taking care of the baby? She's a captive, which means the baby is with her in her sort of prison. Even as Rattleshirt, I doubt he can get a 100 meters close to her and him.

Gilly was the one taking care of both of them, and Val was allowed to roam around, and spent a lot of time with them (I mean, within the confines of the tower). They were all hanging out in the tower Stannis occupied, and Rattleshirt was allowed a pretty free reign.

[Good Guy Garlan]

That's another reason you can take the letter for simply what it says. Ramsay, or the Boltons, or whoever would have no motivation for taking up responsibility of guarding the Wall. That is the one motivation left out of any of this conjecture. Who'd want to take Jon's place and be responsible for the Wall? Noone. The only people who'd have motivation for wanting Jon out of the picture are the one's who stabbed him. The NW. Anyone else not NW would only want things to stay as they are.

Jon as LC was a threat for the Boltons because he was clearly favoring Stannis. So it would have been in the Boltons' best interests to depose him

[Little Member]

He's been wandering free at Castle Black with no apparent restrictions. Surely, he can recognize his own son?

Mance was busy fighting a battle and getting captured when his son was born. He has never seen him.

[Ingelheim]

No, the Boltons have reason to take Jon out of the picture. They've just lost Arya, Arya was a fake anyway, and now that that's out of the bag, the fear is that the North could rally behind Jon as the next Stark-ish candidate. The Boltons either don't know about the Others, or do, and that's part of their plan (meaning, they do not oppose the Others, and therefore don't have need of the Watch). Either way, from the Bolton POV, Jon is what needs to be taken out.

Gilly was the one taking care of both of them, and Val was allowed to roam around, and spent a lot of time with them (I mean, within the confines of the tower). They were all hanging out in the tower Stannis occupied, and Rattleshirt was allowed a pretty free reign.

Yes, but Gilly left soon after Mance's execution. Maybe even before it, I don't even remember. Either way, Mance was not Rattleshirt at that time.

After Gilly leaves, they leave Craster's boy with Val and feed him with goat milk.

And Val wasn't really allowed to roam around. She's confined, IIRC Jon even mentions that he has to let her go to the roof to make exercise because she can't leave her room.

[Ser Eric]

Mance was busy fighting a battle and getting captured when his son was born. He has never seen him.

Hadn't realised that.

[butterbumps!]

Yes, but Gilly left soon after Mance's execution. Maybe even before it, I don't even remember. Either way, Mance was not Rattleshirt at that time.

After Gilly leaves, they leave Craster's boy with Val and feed him with goat milk.

That's why I was pointing to the chapters.

Jon I is when Mel tells Jon she wants to spare Mance. Jon II is when Gilly and Mance's kid leave. Jon III is when the swap has already happened, and Mance is burned. Mel I (between Jon VI + VII) is when Mance reveals himself and goes on the Arya mission.

Mance might have been swapped as early as right after Jon I, before Gilly and the baby left. If so, then this answers it without question, since there would be a direct comparison.

But even if he only saw the baby afterward, there's still a very good chance a parent would recognize his own child. Further, the difference in behavior is notable, if anyone happened to comment. Mance's son was bigger, hungrier, and cried a lot. Gilly's baby is the mellow one. Any comment to that effect would be a fairly good clue for "Rattleshirt" to look a little closer.

Hadn't realised that.

Yes, but I think most parents would be able to recognize their own kid. Especially when it was repeatedly noted that the small, mellow baby is Gilly's. And that the small, mellow baby is who's there now.

[Equilibrium]

Could Lady Dustin be the culprit, just asking, it crossed my mind, she knows Ramsey, she was co-signator of the Ramsey's previous latter, she hates Starks...

[Ingelheim]

That's why I was pointing to the chapters.

Jon I is when Mel tells Jon she wants to spare Mance. Jon II is when Gilly and Mance's kid leave. Jon III is when the swap has already happened, and Mance is burned. Mel I (between Jon VI + VII) is when Mance reveals himself and goes on the Arya mission.

Mance might have been swapped as early as right after Jon I, before Gilly and the baby left. If so, then this answers it without question, since there would be a direct comparison.

But even if he only saw the baby afterward, there's still a very good chance a parent would recognize his own child. Further, the difference in behavior is notable, if anyone happened to comment. Mance's son was bigger, hungrier, and cried a lot. Gilly's baby is the mellow one. Any comment to that effect would be a fairly good clue for "Rattleshirt" to look a little closer.

Yes, but I think most parents would be able to recognize their own kid. Especially when it was repeatedly noted that the small, mellow baby is Gilly's. And that the small, mellow baby is who's there now.

It's actually the opposite. Gilly's baby is the big hungry one. Mance is the little one.

[butterbumps!]

It's actually the opposite. Gilly's baby is the big hungry one. Mance is the little one.

Sorry yes (I wasn't looking at the text and I crossed them). But the point stands that the difference between them was very notable, and commented on a bunch of times. Mance, who'd be very invested in seeing his son, even if from a distance, would hear something like that and look a bit closer.

[Ingelheim]

Sorry yes (I wasn't looking at the text and I crossed them). But the point stands that the difference between them was very notable, and commented on a bunch of times. Mance, who'd be very invested in seeing his son, even if from a distance, would hear something like that and look a bit closer.

But close enough to tell that isn't his son, the one he has never seen?

[Ser Eric]

Yes, but I think most parents would be able to recognize their own kid. Especially when it was repeatedly noted that the small, mellow baby is Gilly's. And that the small, mellow baby is who's there now.

If they have already seen him once, then yes. But if he never saw his son before then it becomes trickier.

I think we're wrong here...

[Berric_Dondiedagain]

I am inclined to believe that Ramsay wrote the letter under false and factual pretenses- I think that some of the things he wrote were true, other parts of it were from false information which he received and that makes the letter confusing to us when we read it.

I do not know how to do the spoiler tag thing but I have read all of the released chapters- which lead me to feel this way

[butterbumps!]

But close enough to tell that isn't his son, the one he has never seen?

If they have already seen him once, then yes. But if he never saw his son before then it becomes trickier.

I think we're wrong here...

Parents can tell. Like, I don't think we should be underestimating this. Even Robert seemed to know something was off when interacting with Cersei's kids as a baby. And that's without some type of clue telling him to look closer, like a different behavior than what had been noted, as would be the case here. And, for the record, there's still the question of whether Rattleshirt-Mance's time overlapped with Gilly's being there, which would put the entire matter to rest, since the direct comparison would make it blazingly obvious.

The point is, though, not that Mance definitively does know that isn't his son, but that this really is something to consider when trying to figure out his frame of mind as it pertains to Winterfell. He's behaving like someone who knows his son isn't currently being kept hostage.

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

The pink letter was sent by Bowen Marsh to distract Jon so he could be assassinated . Roose or Ramsay had never seen Mance before how would they know who he is ? Ramsay loves his sport , spearwives would have given him more of a challenge than the simple northwomen .

[hardhome]

Most of the discussion seems to be about who wrote it not why.

My thoughts, it was written to PISS OFF JON.

Who it was? The only people who might have access to all this information.

Mance

Pro: has most of the information

Con: literacy status unknown, access to ravens unknown

Bloodraven (or someone at the heart tree)

Pro: Access to ravens, literate, access to information

Con: Unlikely to have gotten torture wrong, motive unclear

A captor of Mance

Same as Bloodraven

Satin

Pro: Could guarantee letter was delivered, literate, potential access to all information.

Con: Motive???

Mel

Pro: Has all information, pink is a shade of red, might have seen impending chaos at the Wall in the flames and was looking to escape.

Con: No need to take Val or Gilly's son. Could have left without letter

[butterbumps!]

The pink letter was sent by Bowen Marsh to distract Jon so he could be assassinated . Roose or Ramsay had never seen Mance before how would they know who he is ? Ramsay loves his sport , spearwives would have given him more of a challenge than the simple northwomen .

Why would Bowen Marsh have intimate knowledge of what "my Reek" means?

Mel

Pro: Has all information, pink is a shade of red, might have seen impending chaos at the Wall in the flames and was looking to escape.

Con: No need to take Val or Gilly's son. Could have left without letter

Outside of Rams/ Boltons, Mel is the one with the best motive. But in her case, it wouldn't be to start chaos. She'd have assumed this was a good way to keep Jon at the Wall (believing he was out of allies, and especially to not follow through with Hardhome), and to finally turn to her as his "only hope." She's been trying to get Jon to "unite forces" (i.e. have sex and make "terrible shadows") for 3/4 of DwD. Had she written it, the point would have been to get Jon to go to her, as it emphasizes how Jon's cornered.

ETA: but she couldn't have done it alone. She'd have needed an inside man-- like Bowen (or any of the other Watchmen), she wouldn't know wtf "my Reek" is.