Let's be real: how much power can Cersei possibly get back? [TWoW SPOILERS]

[Mycah Bluth]

I am on board with everyone who loves the idea of getting her back on the throne to unleash her insanity in all kinds of beautiful ways, but! I have to say, I find the idea of her robbed of all formal power and respect SUPER COMPELLING.

We have never seen Cersei completely bereft of royal power. Imagine the Queen Mother with nothing, just lurking around the Red Keep like Rochester's wife in the attic. Nobody sees her as a threat. She's been de-fanged, publicly shamed and is surrounded by septas at all times. The lioness has been tamed. Or so they think.

Compare with Reek, the Ghost in Winterfell, and what he got up to when everyone thought he was a broken shell.

I want to see what the Ghost in Maegor's would do when shit gets real.

[Zagardal]

I think her arc needs her to regain some sort of power over the kingdom. Given that she's obviously not on the road to redemption and that it would be a waste to sweep her under the rug and haver her wither in a farm or something, the most likely scenario is that she'll somehow fuck up the kingdom even more (maybe she tries to kill the Tyrells? Varys could "help" her without her knowing just to destabilize things even more) so that her comeuppance will feel even better to the reader than the ordeal she just went through.

That being said, unless GRRM comes up with a good twist to her story I think that well might be running dry soon, so I don't think Cersei will survive WoW (unless it gets divided in more books). And by extension, Tommen and Myrcella should check out too.

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

Kevan's epilogue, where he describes in detail how Cersei has been defanged and her power spent, is just meant to throw us off the tracks. Cersei has learnt nothing (not even shame), or she wouldn't have asked for Taena back (the one woman privy to her regent schemes).

She is mad for power, will possible actually end up crazy, BUT the kingdom is in such a state that there'll be no one left to stop her.

That's why Varys only killed Pycelle and Kevan.

If VarVar thought he needed to get rid of Mace or Tarly as well, he would have. But this way, they'll be suspected of the murders (he says as much). That weakens the Tyrells, and binds the Lannisters together. And the only senior Lannister in KL is Cersei. Better a soiled Queen Regent in charge, than a rose, hell bent on killing lions. Also remember that the Lady of the Rock still has personal wealth to bribe who she likes.

Varys planned it so that no one will stand in the way of Cersei's post-stroll insanity.

If you don't believe all the various theories of how Cersei will be allowed to do more damage, just believe that Varys has it covered ;)

[Endymion I Targaryen]

She definitely can't get back her former power but the circumstances and Varys will help her regain some.She learned something from her shame:to pretend even though she doesn't like what she does.As Kevan mentioned she prays a lot and seems calm.If she pretends to be Septa Queen she can have Faith's tolerance,especially if she is found innocent.Also now that most Lannister lords (Twyin,Tyrion,Jaime,Kevan,Lancel,Tyrek) are either dead or missing she can take full command of the Lannister army and even recall it at KL.South lords are quite busy with other stuff (Aegon,Ironborn attacks,Margaery's trial) and Northmen fight each other,so she can keep unstable power for some time.

[Roose on the Loose]

If Olena were in the city, I would say yea, The Tyrells knock Cersei's ass in the dirt. Cersei v Mace is a bum fight and I hesitate to predict, except for messy and brutal. Cersei's hidden weapon could be Varys. When fAegon comes knocking, Varys wants Cersei leading the defence.

Now when Cersei trys to be more than temporary mayor of KL, nothing doing.

[Red Tiger]

She'll realize that she has no chance of ruling again in KL, so she'll grab Tommen and flee to Casterly Rock and barricade there

This is what a rational human being would do, which is why this will never happen.

[Lady Starks Revenge]

This is what a rational human being would do, which is why this will never happen.

It would take a truly compelling event for the Lioness to run back to Casterly Rock with Tommen.

Wasn't it her lovely golden twin who mentions taking Tommen to Casterly Rock? As it would make him appear to be another claimant and not the true king? There is something to be said for being the person who is sitting in Kingslanding on the throne, there is a level of legitimacy that grants you merely sitting your bum on the throne whether you deserve it or not.

[Tharvot]

I see a lot of comments and theories operating under the assumption that, in the aftermath of Kevan and Pycelle's assassinations, Cersei is going to just be given the regency right back. Is that a reasonable assumption? She's under house arrest by the Faith for murder, fornication and treason, and I can't see the Tyrells letting her get back on top, even if she "behaves." I'm just uncertain of the extent to which she'll get back the wherewithal to create the kind of chaos Varys desires.

Realistically, there isn't much power Cersei can get back. She has been forever tarnished. However, Cersei's mind and reality are not always in sync. Her downfall and all her scheming to retrieve power will play major parts in this next book. She will still have a good amount of power, considering she is the only Lannister left...but that isn't the ultimate power she is after. I'm excited to see what the Sand Snakes have in store for her. :drool:

[aaronk]

Is Qyburn in Cersei's pocket or is Cersei in Qyburn's pocket? I've always seen Cersei as a piece of the Game of Thrones rather than a player.

Also, i don't know how, but I see Randyll Tarly becoming hand of the king in the very near future. His character seems built for that position

[Lord_Pepsi_Cupps]

Is Qyburn in Cersei's pocket or is Cersei in Qyburn's pocket? I've always seen Cersei as a piece of the Game of Thrones rather than a player.

Also, i don't know how, but I see Randyll Tarly becoming hand of the king in the very near future. His character seems built for that position

I reckon that the thing Cersei's meant to illustrate is that even someone not clever enough to really play the game of thrones can still have a huge impact - through their sheer determination, and/or stupidity; and that, in some ways, her lack of self-awareness (esp when it comes to her own strengths and flaws) is her best armour. So she gets played for sure, but she has a massive impact on the game as well.

I reckon Tarly is gonna pull some cray shit. I don't think he's happy under Mace the Oaf Tyrell, and especially not under the real power of the Queen of Thorns. Ultimately taking orders from a woman would massively chafe, the text goes at great length to drive home Randyll's misogyny. And he's been layin down the law up and down the crownlands, so he'll be thinking he may be built to rule after all.

[Kyll.Ing.]

Keep in mind that King's Landing is also a literal tinderbox, with numerous stashes of twenty-year old Wildfire being buried all over the place, and that substance becomes more volatile as time goes by. If I recall correctly, the pyromancers under Tyrion found only one of those stashes, under the Great Sept (it's been a while since I read that part), but Jaime mentioned more Wildfire being hidden underneath the Red Keep, the Mud Gate, and all over Flea Bottom, and he personally killed everybody who was in on the plot. I think it's clear that the rest of the hidden Wildfire remains exactly where it was buried, and that nobody knows where it's all hidden - I don't think Jaime ever compiled a list, if he ever got to know about all the hiding places - and Jaime's not even around to warn anybody about it. He probably never realized that Wildfire grows more unstable over time, thinking instead that it would probably decay to the point of harmlessless if left alone. Jaime thought he had saved the city, end of story. In reality, he prevented an immediate destruction, but the danger is still out there - and growing.

If the pyromancers knew their stuff, and carried out Aerys' orders as specified, the hidden Wildfire is enough to burn the entire city down once set off. That was the design requirement of the Wildfire Plot, and barring calculations errors it probably went through. King's Landing is toast, and nobody even knows it yet (with the possible exception of Brienne, who has only heard a brief recap of the events, and is currently facing different troubles at the business end of a rope - and either way, I don't think she's any better at chemistry than Jaime; the volatility of Wildfire probably isn't common knowledge, so she might also think the danger has long since blown over).

I think this non-ticking "bomb" is going to coincide pretty hard with the Regent at some point in the series, wiping out the city and the Iron Throne for good (thus leaving Westeros without a seat of power, effectively splitting the Seven Kingdoms similarly to how they were for thousands of years before the Targaryens arrived). But I don't think it will happen until the very end of the series. The destruction of King's Landing would bring the story full circle. Not the story as has been unfolded from GoT on, but the story of the Seven Kingdoms - from Aegon's Landing to the definite fall of House Targaryen. It would make an end to the centre of politics and intrigues, and to the big barbed MacGuffin everybody seeks to obtain in this story, so the fulfillment of the Wildfire Plot isn't going to be carried out in the semi-final book. It's endgame stuff.

That being considered, whatever Cersei does in WoW, she won't burn down King's Landing. It has to be preserved for a big finale. At the very earliest, I could see it happen at the end of WoW, but I doubt Martin would carry out all of ADoS without King's Landing and the Iron Throne. The series needs its focal point, for it to mark a definite end when it disappears. Besides, if Cersei burns the city down, it would go against Martin's promises to let a few more people rub their bums against that uncomfortable seat. That is, unless WoW showcases a cavalcade of regents before Cersei gets back in power, and then burns the city down. But there are a little too many plot threads to follow for all that to take place within one book.

So back to Cersei, if she is to burn down the city she has to wait through all of WoW (and/or a couple of regents) first. And the mean time has to be filled somehow. Of course, there is the trial. Assuming it goes Cersei's way, what could she do? I mean, we've already seen Cersei in "Mad Queen" mode to some extent, completely losing touch with reality, spending ludicrous amounts of money on useless stuff (Drommonds, new Tower of the Hand, and she considers building a summer palace on the other side of the river) - while the region is lacking food, and winter is drawing near, and trusting the wrong people. We've also seen Jaime rejecting her (burning her letter) and her fall from power. I'm not sure if you can squeeze any more story out of Queen (/Regent) Cersei. If she was to come back into power, all we'd get would be more of the same stuff, maybe cranked up even more, but ultimately just more of the same stuff. She's got a trial, and a prophecy to be fulfilled, and Varys sorta wants her in power, but story-wise, she is drying out. I think Cersei is nearing the end rather fast, and that the story soon will move on without her. It's not like there's a lack of potential regents who could burn the city down instead of her - heck, at least three of the top candidates for the throne are affiliated with fire in some way.

[rozemarijn]

If Cersei burns the city she has to survive as well. She has to be strangled by death, not explode or burn. (If she really loves her children she should have killed herself and tricked the phrophecy).

I agree the gunfire plot has to have some importance, Dany saw her father talk about it in the House of the undying.

I agree it would be a great finale, but also a great plot twist ... Imagine what the other characters would do if they heard. How to be king when the iron throne is blown away?

[Kyll.Ing.]

If Cersei burns the city she has to survive as well. She has to be strangled by death, not explode or burn.

That is, assuming the "strangling" part of the prophecy is literal, but either way, I don't think dying by fire will be her thing. I think she'll meet her end in a non-fiery way, and somebody else can burn down the city. Whatever way that fire is initiated, it would be the last thing to ever happen to King's Landing, and probably also the Iron Throne itself. As I said, there are plenty of other ways to set off that fire, heck, knowing Martin it could happen out of the blue on a warm summer day. Cersei isn't needed for it to happen, and her end is foreshadowed/theorized to be a bit more of a "lose everything, then die" sort of thing.

As for how that can happen, well... she's really on a roll of losing stuff already. She's lost her beauty, the backing of the Faith, public support, possibly Jaime, probably Myrcella (the girl will be fine, it seems, but out of reach for Cersei), a crap-ton of money, most of her relatives (the line of inheritance for Casterly Rock is quickly running out of Lannisters), and probably a fair amount of other stuff too. Basically her only hope of power hinges on restoring the status quo and ruling through Tommen. And as far as that goes, the story has been there already. I know Martin's fond of breaking conventions, but I don't think he'll let the story go back to that point again. We've seen what it's like when Cersei is in power, we've seen her method of ruling, albeit under restraint, and we've seen her fall. The only difference would be the absence of Kevan and Pycelle, her mentors and advisors, but she never listened much to them anyway, so I don't think it would make much of a difference with them gone.

In short, I think Cersei has played her role in this story. She's shown us what she can do, and how it affects her surroundings and the Game of Thrones. I don't think she'll return to power, as that would basically only be a repeat of things we've seen before. I guess that prophecy of hers will play out at some point in TWoW, and that Cersei won't survive the book. Besides, we got to get to those other people sitting on the Throne too. The longer Cersei stays around, the less time they'll get.

[Anna Marzo]

I'd say things are pretty fucked up for the Tyrells too at the moment. They will likely be suspects on Kevan's murderer; Margaery is facing her trial (I got the feeling that's when shit is gonna go down with the Faith x Tyrell); and the cherry on top is called Lady Nym. Let's not forget Doran is starting to move his pieces. Tyene will be there too, and will possibly get the Faith to her side.

Cersei could take advantage of that vulnerable moment for the Tyrells, BUT let's also pay attention to the Snakes in the pit.

I must say, however, that Cersar may have been defanged, but she still has claws... and madness... and wildfire. She is gonna go Aerys before the end.

[memeka]

Let's not forget Tyrell will have to pull his army back to defend the Reach from Euron.

[Hoid]

I started to think about it and with Kevan dead and Gregor undead, I don't really see her getting shipped off to Casterly Rock. She won't be powerless, but Aegon and Dorne are both about to pop off and make moves. On one hand Cersei brings stability in that she's experienced and has connections, but in the other hand she's gonna have her work cut out for her. It's definitely going to be interesting to see how it all plays out.

[ApKing06]

Cersei having any power after what has happened can only end badly and the only support she will have is from anyone having too much to lose if Tommen is not King

Her fight/trial has the potential to be completely off the hook. First off, there is no way the Dornish (Nym, Tyene) dont throw a fit that a 8 foot giant (who came out of nowhere, whose never shown his face, and shows up right after Gregor Clegeane supposedly dies) is fighting for the Queen. They will want proof he is not the Mountain. He will have to take off that helm and reveal himself (its self?).

Since its hard to imagine a man like Robert Strong has never been noted before he turns up with Qyburn, him revealing himself will end up being very bad for Cersei. If its Clegeane than Cersei is shown to be a liar in front of the whole realm. If its something un-natural created by Qyburn she is in even more trouble. Of course I may be wrong and the fight does happen, but I cant see it going the distance and Strongs identity not being revealed. Whomever the Faith puts forth as a champion is not going to be a slouch and will be looking to unmask him.

Either way, i dont see her getting out of this clean with a victory proving herself innocent. Guilty, not guilty, trial, no trial, she is not giving up the Iron Throne and will do anything she has to do to keep her son on it. There is definite potential for chaos in Kings Landing, just as Varys hoped when he killed Pycelle and Kevan.

[Casso, King of the Seals]

It is possible the Sand Snakes will arrive after the trial, but nonetheless, there are suspicions about his identity and humanness already in the Epilogue of A Dance with Dragons, so I expect that someone will try to unmask him at some point (but not necessarily during the trial). What do you think, where will the trial take place? Will it be in the Red Keep or in a royal place of power, someplace where the Faith has influence or somewhere on "neutral ground"?

[unitron]

It is possible the Sand Snakes will arrive after the trial, but nonetheless, there are suspicions about his identity and humanness already in the Epilogue of A Dance with Dragons, so I expect that someone will try to unmask him at some point (but not necessarily during the trial). What do you think, where will the trial take place? Will it be in the Red Keep or in a royal place of power, someplace where the Faith has influence or somewhere on "neutral ground"?

If it's a trial by combat they need to hold it someplace where they can sell tickets and collect something to go towards the war debt.

[Casso, King of the Seals]

The Dragonpit? In a A Storm of Swords chapter Tyrion thinks they should have done his trial there instead of in the outer ward. But who would come up with it? It is practically a ruin which has been sealed for over a century. It would be very interesting to read a chapter set there, but who knows? The other possibility I can think of are the tourney grounds. How will the High Septon think about this? Would the Faith place it in the Red Keep, as the Tyrion's trial was? This is, however, a trial conducted by the Faith, so what do you think?