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R+L =J v.105


Jon Weirgaryen

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Or, Hightower and Ned both knew where they were the entire time, which also has big connotations for the story, were one to subscribe to that. Again, we shall see.

It seems highly unlikely that Hightower and Ned knew where they were the entire time. With Hightower, there would be too big a risk that Aerys would ask him the location, so Rhaegar would have to keep this information from Hightower. With Ned, it seems inconceivable that he would leave her there the entire time if he knew where she was. And if he chose to leave her there during the war, why go to ToJ after the war--just let the situation play out. No, it really makes no sense that either H nor N knew the location for any length of time prior to heading off to ToJ.

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It seems highly unlikely that Hightower and Ned knew where they were the entire time. With Hightower, there would be too big a risk that Aerys would ask him the location, so Rhaegar would have to keep this information from Hightower. With Ned, it seems inconceivable that he would leave her there the entire time if he knew where she was. And if he chose to leave her there during the war, why go to ToJ after the war--just let the situation play out. No, it really makes no sense that either H nor N knew the location for any length of time prior to heading off to ToJ.

Right. I think it's far more likely that Aerys orders Hightower to go looking for R and before Hightower sets out to follow his orders (searching over Westeros to find R), Rhaella/Elia/Ashara Dayne pulls the LC aside and tells him where to go. Same with Ned. The siege at SE ends, Ned is pulled aside by Glover Ashara and is told, at minimum, where Lyanna is.

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In Westeros there may not be a difference between those two situations, but in medieval times, there most definitely was. According to medieval cannon law, a betrothal or a pre-contract was legally considered a semi-binding contract that was negotiated not only between the couple but, their families as well.

Oh no argument there! I would say it's pretty fair to assume that the rather precipitous nature of Mary's wedding on her way home to have a marriage arranged was about avoiding the arranged marriage before it has been contracted. From a legal standpoint, and in terms of consequence, indeed there was a significant difference. I'm only saying that in the matter of intent, specifically the intent to avoid an arranged marriage, there's no difference.

It's also worth remembering here that it wasn't just Mary Tudor getting married. She married Charles Brandon, who at the time was already betrothed, to Viscountess Lisle, who was 9 at the time. This wasn't even the first time Brandon did something like that. He had been betrothed to Anne Browne and they had consummated but not married when he married Margaret Neville. Browne's family had the marriage of Brandon and Neville annulled before Brandon and Browne eventually married. So even if we don't allow Mary Tudor as an example of someone running away from a betrothal, Brandon certainly is.

It could be formed merely by the exchange of vows between the couple in the future tense (I will take you as my husband/wife) but if after saying these vows the couple had sex, the physical consummation was considered by the church to have transformed the betrothal from a semi-binding contract into an actual legal marriage.

Not necessarily even after saying vows. Consummation alone could be enough to force the issue, which gave rise to the problem of bride theft. This is undoubtedly a large part of the increased legal concern over "abduction with consent" being used as a way to bypass normal arrangements. There's an intriguing case mentioned in the book I cited of an abduction where the defendant's response was that he was abducting his bride back and that he was the actually her legal husband which appears to be a case of betrothal vs. consummation.

It's one thing to elope with the daughter/son of a high lord, it's quite another thing to run off and elope with a member of the royal family without the king's permission, let alone do it with his male heir. In this case, the only opinion that ultimately matters is the kings, no one else's. He's going to be the one to determine the severity of the consequences.

Funny thing: Mary seems to have had a thing for Brandon before she was sent to France, and it's said that when Henry sent Brandon to fetch her back, he specifically instructed him not to get involved with her again. It seems that the new French king encouraged the couple in the hopes that it would forestall Henry arranging a marriage for Mary that would create an alliance that wasn't in France's favour. That makes Brandon's actions even more treasonous, but may also have been what saved him, as Mary left France with considerable wealth from her previous marriage to the French King that she might not have been able to keep without Francis I's blessings. Wolsey's intervention with Henry was no doubt made a lot easier by the fact he could tell Henry just how profitable a mere fine and annulment would be!

I'd venture to guess that just like in medieval history, it would all boil down to the nature of the individual king and their relationship with the offending family member in question. Now we still don't know everything what was really going on between Aerys and Rhaegar. However, I don't think it's out of left field for me to say that unless he was seriously planning on overthrowing his father or somehow Aerys knew all about his son's plans to take Lyanna as a second wife and gave his approval, it does not seem like a particularly wise or safe move on the crown prince's part. At best, Aerys could disinherit/exile them and at worst, Aerys could wake up one morning on the wrong side of his paranoid crazy train, decide that both his son and Lyanna were treasonous threats to his authority and burn them alive.

I don't think that's out of left field at all, I'd call that an excellent summary of some very likely assumptions. My inclination is to suspect that Aerys hadn't given his support. If he had, Rhaegar could have taken Lyanna to KL rather than hiding out in the Tower of Joy. On the other hand, if Aerys was opposed and Rhaegar was hiding from him too, how did Hightower know where to find him?

The sense I have of Rhaegar is that he had his head in the clouds and was rather impetuous, but I wonder how much of that comes from the first book. His actions certainly seemed tragically unwise from there, but when we learned from Jaime's recollections that he had intended to call a council to make unspecified changes, perhaps we got our reasons. I suppose we could speculate that while Rhaegar's plans to call a council must have been a fairly well kept secret, Aerys' increasing paranoia may have been triggered by a well-developed intrigue between the two. Thus there might have been people at the court that could have acted as an intermediary between Hightower and Rhaegar. Did Aerys agree to absolve Rhaegar in exchange for his agreement to fight at the Trident?

Oh! And you're Vader/Rhaegar, Luke/Jon post was EPIC! :thumbsup:

Many thanks, and to BearQueen87, Ellfoy, Rhaegal Targaryen (and anyone I missed, sorry!) for your nice words about it. Thanks particularly to sj4iy who's question inspired it. I really enjoyed writing it.

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With regards to figuring out how much time must have passed between event A and event B due to distances and travel times, I have developed a highly scientific mathematical formula which I've employed in a different thread and I believe will be of great value here, so much so that I propose it be added to the reference guide. The mathematical formula goes like this:



GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope.


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With regards to figuring out how much time must have passed between event A and event B due to distances and travel times, I have developed a highly scientific mathematical formula which I've employed in a different thread and I believe will be of great value here, so much so that I propose it be added to the reference guide. The mathematical formula goes like this:

GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope.

It is known.

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With regards to figuring out how much time must have passed between event A and event B due to distances and travel times, I have developed a highly scientific mathematical formula which I've employed in a different thread and I believe will be of great value here, so much so that I propose it be added to the reference guide. The mathematical formula goes like this:

GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope.

More like:

GRRM: numbers = whatever the hell I say they are

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I do intend to publish a timeline as an appendix in one or other of the later volumes, but even when I do, I am not certain I'm going to start detailing things down to months and days. With such a huge cast of characters, just keeping track of the =years= drives me half mad sometimes.--GRRM


http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1040/



The reason I am never specific about dates and distances is precisely so that people won't sit down and do this sort of thing.


My suggestion would be to put away the ruler and the stopwatch, and just enjoy the story.--GRRM


http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Chronology_and_Distances



I have deliberately tried to be vague about such things, so I don't have obsessive fans with rulers measuring distances on the map and telling me Ned couldn't get from X to Y in the time I say he did.


However, if you really must know, you can figure out the distances for yourself. The Wall is a hundred leagues long. A league is three miles. Go from there.


But if you turn up any mistakes in travel times by using that measure, let it be your secret.--GRRM


http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Size_of_Westeros/



GRRM is vague in times and distances... vague enough that an attempt to find errors in his travel times is a fools errand...



Fan-theory wants to be very specific. Specific enough that it creates errors in travel times that are easy to spot.



Case-in-point... Rossart being made Hand after Chelsted and being Hand for two weeks. When fans insert "immediately after" (for arguably good reason) instead of accepting the vague "after" we have 10,000 Dornish spearmen walking 700 miles in less than 2 weeks. The nonsensical figure comes from a fan making a vague term into a specific one. If GRRM had included "immediately" it would be his mistake... as he did not, it is the mistake of the fan.


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Littlefinger--If you bed enough women, some will give you presents...--aGoT page 368


Ned was with Cat a very limited number of times before they conceived Robb


Robert was with Barra a limited number of times before they conceived Barra


Robert was with Florent once and conceived Edric...


Notably


Lysa had problems conceiving--though not with Littlefinger


Selsye had problems conceiving


Jayne had problems conceiving-- artificial



That was a somewhat halfhearted attempt at drawing a link between copulation and chances of conception as provided in the book. Citing each example of copulation and its ending would prove little more than the limited list provided. It is in the end an uncertain event, as it should be. Within the uncertainty there are some general rules... as Littlefinger pointed out



Lyanna conceived 3 months--minus the difference between nearly a year and a year + plus Brandon's travel to KL, + plus Rickard Travel to KL, +plus Jon Arryn calling his banners... +plus a up to a month or thereabouts and +the time between Rhaella's flight and the sack.



That is three months (give or take) of sex without pregnancy or three months (give or take) then sex and pregnancy.



We have an unknown amount of time between Harrenhal and Lyanna's abduction... we can give years but that leaves a huge range of months between. We also do not have the location of Rhaegar or Lyanna during this time period. It is a blank sheet on which many of us pencil in a romance between the pair.



Rather than using the unknowns, we could use the known-- the months between abduction and conception.



This maintains GRRM's statement that people went through with arranged marriages, and did not question them.


I wanted to affect a certain human reality. I don’t like fantasy where everybody is either a hero or a villain, black or white. I prefer to paint with shades of grey. I think it’s more true to life. We’re all of us angels and demons in the same skin. We do good things and the next day we maybe do terrible things.--GRRM


http://www.abebooks.com/docs/Fantasy/george-martin.shtml



It also makes Rhaegar's actions a failure to contain a rebellion rather than the cause of the rebellion. It muddies the line between the justified rebellion and the mad Targaryens which seems to fall more in line with the above quote. The rebels portrait of the rebellion is absolutely in black and white. It is also the portrait we have seen most. That does not mean it is what happened.

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Littlefinger--If you bed enough women, some will give you presents...--aGoT page 368

Ned was with Cat a very limited number of times before they conceived Robb

Robert was with Barra a limited number of times before they conceived Barra

Robert was with Florent once and conceived Edric...

Notably

Lysa had problems conceiving--though not with Littlefinger

Selsye had problems conceiving

Jayne had problems conceiving-- artificial

That was a somewhat halfhearted attempt at drawing a link between copulation and chances of conception as provided in the book. Citing each example of copulation and its ending would prove little more than the limited list provided. It is in the end an uncertain event, as it should be. Within the uncertainty there are some general rules... as Littlefinger pointed out

Lyanna conceived 3 months--minus the difference between nearly a year and a year + plus Brandon's travel to KL, + plus Rickard Travel to KL, +plus Jon Arryn calling his banners... +plus a up to a month or thereabouts and +the time between Rhaella's flight and the sack.

That is three months (give or take) of sex without pregnancy or three months (give or take) then sex and pregnancy.

We have an unknown amount of time between Harrenhal and Lyanna's abduction... we can give years but that leaves a huge range of months between. We also do not have the location of Rhaegar or Lyanna during this time period. It is a blank sheet on which many of us pencil in a romance between the pair.

Rather than using the unknowns, we could use the known-- the months between abduction and conception.

This maintains GRRM's statement that people went through with arranged marriages, and did not question them.

I wanted to affect a certain human reality. I don’t like fantasy where everybody is either a hero or a villain, black or white. I prefer to paint with shades of grey. I think it’s more true to life. We’re all of us angels and demons in the same skin. We do good things and the next day we maybe do terrible things.--GRRM

http://www.abebooks.com/docs/Fantasy/george-martin.shtml

It also makes Rhaegar's actions a failure to contain a rebellion rather than the cause of the rebellion. It muddies the line between the justified rebellion and the mad Targaryens which seems to fall more in line with the above quote. The rebels portrait of the rebellion is absolutely in black and white. It is also the portrait we have seen most. That does not mean it is what happened.

/thread.

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While it may be true that some medieval "abductions" may have taken place with the consent of the abductee, that doesn't mean we should conclude that all abductions in Westeros are consensual till proven otherwise. Thus far we haven't got a single person in the books who speaks of Lyanna having gone willingly without force with Rhaegar...and that includes Dany, who should be the one most inclined to take a lenient view of the matter.

Wow, I didn't know that. But was she lucky, really? If Anne had been 'damaged goods' Henry might not have considered her wife material - if she'd only been a mistress she might have survived their relationship.

Yeah, this is a guy you definitely don't mind getting rejected by.

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With regards to figuring out how much time must have passed between event A and event B due to distances and travel times, I have developed a highly scientific mathematical formula which I've employed in a different thread and I believe will be of great value here, so much so that I propose it be added to the reference guide. The mathematical formula goes like this:

GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope.

Yes, algebra!!

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The rebels portrait of the rebellion is absolutely in black and white. It is also the portrait we have seen most. That does not mean it is what happened.

Treason never doth prosper. What's the reason?

For if it doth prosper then none dare call it treason.

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Treason never doth prosper. What's the reason?

For if it doth prosper then none dare call it treason.

Tywin effectively ruled the seven kingdoms for Aerys-- as per Ilyn Payne "When you tear out a man's tongue, you're not proving him a liar, you're only telling the world what you fear he might say." --aCoK page 229

Duskendale was Aerys failed attempt to show the seven kingdoms that he was a ruler in his own right

--Aerys refusal to leave the Red Keep after Duskendale made him an absent king

--Aerys rivalry (for lack of better word) with Tywin strained the relationship too much for Tywin to continue ruling

After the Lannisport tournament the rift between Tywin and Aerys could not have been bridged.

The Targaryen administration was in serious trouble after Tywin resigned his position.

The Harrenhal tournament succeeded in showing as many lords as could be gathered that they still had a king.

--There is no mention of betrothal between Stark-Baratheon-Tully in Ned's recollection of the tournament

--There is no mention of the wolf maid being betrothed in Merra's story of the Harrenhal tournament

Hypothesis

The Tully-Stark-Arryn-Baratheon marriage pact formed as a rival to Targaryen power after the Harrenhal tournament.

--The support for pact as a rivalry to the Targaryens is based on the outcome... outcome does not prove intent,--- therefore it is a hypothesis rather than an assertion

--The pact forming after the tournament is based on absence of evidence... absence of evidence is not evidence---therefore it is a hypothesis rather than an assertion

Lyanna's abduction foiled the planned marriage pact

directly stopped the Baratheon Stark marriage.

indirectly stopped the Tully Stark marriage.

Hypothesis

Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna to foil the Stark-Baratheon marriage pact.

--Again outcome does not prove intent--therefore it is a hypothesis rather than an assertion.

--The Tully-Stark alliance was disrupted but there is no basis to assert that it could have been a foreseeable consequence of abducting Lyanna.

Selmy is a major source of the information we have about Aerys and Rhaegar. However, he admits that he was not trusted like Dayne was. There may have been schemes and plots that Selmy was not privy to.

Consider Cersei forbidding Robert from competing in the melee. No surer way to insure he did than to tell him he could not.

Now Aerys learned that Rhaegar wished to meet with the lords without him. No surer way to insure he attended than to tell him he could not.

The source of the leak of Rhaegar's plot is not given.

Hypothesis

Rhaegar leaked his own plot to get Aerys out of the Red Keep.

--again outcome does not prove intent. hypothesis not assertion.

--the source of the leak contains the same logical fallacy.

Rhaegar's next intervention into the affairs of the realm was at the request of Aerys.

Hypothesis

Rheagar's concern for the realm diminished after the kidnapping.

--This is based on earlier Hypothesis--the Tournament and kidnapping were Rhaegar intervening in the affairs of the realm.

Rhaegar and Lyanna fell in love.-- Selmy saying Rhaegar loved Lyanna and Ned's memory of Lyanna dying holding roses from Rhaegar.

Hypothesis

Rhaegar's love diminished concern for the realm.

---Based on earlier hypothesis

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Tywin effectively ruled the seven kingdoms for Aerys-- as per Ilyn Payne "When you tear out a man's tongue, you're not proving him a liar, you're only telling the world what you fear he might say." --aCoK page 229

Duskendale was Aerys failed attempt to show the seven kingdoms that he was a ruler in his own right

--Aerys refusal to leave the Red Keep after Duskendale made him an absent king

--Aerys rivalry (for lack of better word) with Tywin strained the relationship too much for Tywin to continue ruling

After the Lannisport tournament the rift between Tywin and Aerys could not have been bridged.

The Targaryen administration was in serious trouble after Tywin resigned his position.

The Harrenhal tournament succeeded in showing as many lords as could be gathered that they still had a king.

--There is no mention of betrothal between Stark-Baratheon-Tully in Ned's recollection of the tournament

--There is no mention of the wolf maid being betrothed in Merra's story of the Harrenhal tournament

Hypothesis

The Tully-Stark-Arryn-Baratheon marriage pact formed as a rival to Targaryen power after the Harrenhal tournament.

--The support for pact as a rivalry to the Targaryens is based on the outcome... outcome does not prove intent,--- therefore it is a hypothesis rather than an assertion

--The pact forming after the tournament is based on absence of evidence... absence of evidence is not evidence---therefore it is a hypothesis rather than an assertion

Lyanna's abduction foiled the planned marriage pact

directly stopped the Baratheon Stark marriage.

indirectly stopped the Tully Stark marriage.

Hypothesis

Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna to foil the Stark-Baratheon marriage pact.

--Again outcome does not prove intent--therefore it is a hypothesis rather than an assertion.

--The Tully-Stark alliance was disrupted but there is no basis to assert that it could have been a foreseeable consequence of abducting Lyanna.

Selmy is a major source of the information we have about Aerys and Rhaegar. However, he admits that he was not trusted like Dayne was. There may have been schemes and plots that Selmy was not privy to.

Consider Cersei forbidding Robert from competing in the melee. No surer way to insure he did than to tell him he could not.

Now Aerys learned that Rhaegar wished to meet with the lords without him. No surer way to insure he attended than to tell him he could not.

The source of the leak of Rhaegar's plot is not given.

Hypothesis

Rhaegar leaked his own plot to get Aerys out of the Red Keep.

--again outcome does not prove intent. hypothesis not assertion.

--the source of the leak contains the same logical fallacy.

Rhaegar's next intervention into the affairs of the realm was at the request of Aerys.

Hypothesis

Rheagar's concern for the realm diminished after the kidnapping.

--This is based on earlier Hypothesis--the Tournament and kidnapping were Rhaegar intervening in the affairs of the realm.

Rhaegar and Lyanna fell in love.-- Selmy saying Rhaegar loved Lyanna and Ned's memory of Lyanna dying holding roses from Rhaegar.

Hypothesis

Rhaegar's love diminished concern for the realm.

---Based on earlier hypothesis

I think that Rhaegar and Rhaella were up to something, but as to how far it was at the point of Harrenhal isn't determined.

Certainly crowning Lyanna would have made Rhaegar a questionable alternative in the minds of the very lords Rhaegar was supposed to be wooing.

And wouldn't getting the kings permission, (as was the case in real history), for the marriages been an opportunity for Aerys to stop those alliances in the first place if he had said no?

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I think that Rhaegar and Rhaella were up to something, but as to how far it was at the point of Harrenhal isn't determined.

Certainly crowning Lyanna would have made Rhaegar a questionable alternative in the minds of the very lords Rhaegar was supposed to be wooing.

And wouldn't getting the kings permission, (as was the case in real history), for the marriages been an opportunity for Aerys to stop those alliances in the first place if he had said no?

Last things first...

Yes the king should have been up on current affairs of the realm. Yes the Stark-Tully-Baratheon-Arryn marriage pact should have sought the blessing of the king, Either Aerys knew and blessed off on them or he did not know. Aerys showed he was either incapable of seeing the threat of the alliance or was kept ignorant of things he should have known.

Without action by Rhaegar, his father would have been confronted by the same alliance that deposed him.

Aerys reaction to Brandon's threats alone would seem out of proportion to the crime. Throw in unapproved marriages between great houses and the response seems more appropriate. It does make Aerys's response a reaction as opposed to Rhaegar's action.

The tournament did somewhat secure Aerys's position. Unlike his father, Rhaegar was quite capable of roaming the realm and meeting with the lords individually without arousing any suspicion. The gathering of the great lords helped the shut-in more than the knight that frequented tournaments.

Up until Rhaegar came in to the company of Lyanna, his actions seem to be aimed at strengthening his father's position... in spite of Aerys. Even if Rhaegar had designs on the throne, securing its authority would have to come first. Aerys as a figurehead allowed Rhaegar freedom to maneuver politically.

Rhaegar's growing relationship with Lyanna would explain his prolonged absence.--Selmy thought it was not in Rhaegar to be happy. Yet Rhaegar named his home with Lyanna the tower of joy. Notably, Selmy never saw the pair together.

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And wouldn't getting the kings permission, (as was the case in real history), for the marriages been an opportunity for Aerys to stop those alliances in the first place if he had said no?

How could he, since the marriage were after the start of the Rebellion?

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As far as I know there cannot have been a Stark-Tully-Arryn-Baratheon marriage pact, since Jon Arryn only decided to marry Lysa Tully during the Rebellion. In fact, we know that Hoster Tully wanted to marry Lysa to Jaime shortly before Harrenhal, and there is no reason to believe that Hoster negotiated with Tywin and Jon at the same time.



More importantly, the App stated that Ned passed on Robert's wish to marry Lyanna to Rickard, who then agreed. This suggests that Robert had met Lyanna during a visit in the Vale (he clearly never was in the North before AGoT), perhaps when the Stark children visited their kin there (the descendants of Lord Edwyle's sister).



This most certainly did not occur after or around the time of Harrenhal.



And Ned also only honored Brandon's marriage contract because he needed the Tully swords in the war - just as Jon Arryn was forced to marry Lysa.



There was no Baratheon-Stark-Tully-Arryn alliance sealed by marriage, neither prior to or after the events that took place at Harrenhal.



The whole thing was forged during the Rebellion itself.


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There was on Baratheon-Stark-Tully-Arryn alliance sealed by marriage, neither prior to or after the events that took place at Harrenhal.

The whole thing was forge during the Rebellion itself.

Perhaps not an alliance per se, but there had to be some sort of relationship. Ned fostered at the Eyrie; Brandon engaged to Cat. The odd ball out is Barartheon until Ned brings the proposal to Rickard, but Robert and Ned were as close as brothers by that point.

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Yeah, but that really makes no matter. Brandon and Robert were not all that close, or were they? Brandon was supposed to continue the Stark line, not Ned, so it did not really matter. Just because Robar Royce was friends with the Storm's End, didn't cause Runestone to declare for King Renly...



The fostering thing clearly led also to the Robert-Lyanna betrothal, but that was all not intentional. GRRM may have just introduced Rickard's ambition to explain why a Lord Stark would actually care about (or accept) Southron matches. From what we know from the Stark family trees such marriages are highly unusual for the Starks, and thus would call for a somewhat orthodox Lord of Winterfell.



I guess Rickard wanted a southron match for Brandon, but he did not seem to look actively try to make a southron match for Lyanna or his other sons.


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