R+L =J v.105

[stateofdissipation]

As far as I know there cannot have been a Stark-Tully-Arryn-Baratheon marriage pact, since Jon Arryn only decided to marry Lysa Tully during the Rebellion. In fact, we know that Hoster Tully wanted to marry Lysa to Jaime shortly before Harrenhal, and there is no reason to believe that Hoster negotiated with Tywin and Jon at the same time.

More importantly, the App stated that Ned passed on Robert's wish to marry Lyanna to Rickard, who then agreed. This suggests that Robert had met Lyanna during a visit in the Vale (he clearly never was in the North before AGoT), perhaps when the Stark children visited their kin there (the descendants of Lord Edwyle's sister).

This most certainly did not occur after or around the time of Harrenhal.

And Ned also only honored Brandon's marriage contract because he needed the Tully swords in the war - just as Jon Arryn was forced to marry Lysa.

There was no Baratheon-Stark-Tully-Arryn alliance sealed by marriage, neither prior to or after the events that took place at Harrenhal.

The whole thing was forged during the Rebellion itself.

As far as I know there cannot have been a Stark-Tully-Arryn-Baratheon marriage pact, since Jon Arryn only decided to marry Lysa Tully during the Rebellion. In fact, we know that Hoster Tully wanted to marry Lysa to Jaime shortly before Harrenhal, and there is no reason to believe that Hoster negotiated with Tywin and Jon at the same time.

The marriage pact was post Harrenhal. Quite aware of the pre-Harrenhal negotiations. Nothing indicated that Robert was betrothed at Harrenhal nor Brandon.

Lyanna was the Stark in the Baratheon-Stark

When the Baratheon marriage was threatened the response came:

Baratheon was ward to Jon Arryn.

Four rode to King's Landing

Brandon Stark--heir to Winterfell, plus squire, Ethan Glover

Elbert Arryn--Jon Arryn's nephew and heir to the Vale

Jeffory Mallister--sworn to house Tully

The App is an interpretation of

"Robert will never keep to one bed," Lyanna had told him at Winterfell, on the night long ago when their father had promised her hand to the young Lord of Storm's End. " I hear he has gotten a child on some girl in the Vale." Ned had held the babe in his arms; he could scarcely deny her, nor would he lie to his sister, but he had assured her that what Robert did before their betrothal was of no matter, that he was a good man and true who would love her with all his heart.--aGoT page 367

Your addition to the app's addition create an event not supported by the text.

This most certainly did not occur after or around the time of Harrenhal.

Rhaegar rode past his own wife and crowned Robert's betrothed queen of beauty.... and the latter had no reaction worth mentioning? Had Lyanna been betrothed at Harrenhal Rheagar crowning her queen of beauty was as much an insult to Robert as it was his own wife. However, his reaction is not given in any account of the Tournament.

We do not have a date on Stark-Tully or Stark-Baratheon marriage pacts. If you would like to invent one that is fine. --The common argument against a post harrenhal betrothal is that Harrenhal was in the year of the false spring. Implying it was winter before and after. As travel is difficult in winter the betrothals came before.

The year of the false spring... could include a false spring and then a true spring... the year starts looking like spring, winter kicks back in for 3 months... the real spring arrives. Implies does not equal states. It is also winter before the spring (false or not) It is an interpretation and not necessarily the correct one.

Travel being difficult in winter and travel being impossible are not the same thing. Winters lasted years yet travel still happened.

And Ned also only honored Brandon's marriage contract because he needed the Tully swords in the war - just as Jon Arryn was forced to marry Lysa.

Interesting that you add the Stark need for Tully swords into the marriage contract that was honored. Odd that you fail to see the same swords would have been married to Brandon had he lived.

No idea how Jon Arryn's marrying a Tully would aid a cause that already included Tully--- as you were kind enough to point out in the benefits of Ned's ,marriage.

[MtnLion]

More importantly, the App stated that Ned passed on Robert's wish to marry Lyanna to Rickard, who then agreed. This suggests that Robert had met Lyanna during a visit in the Vale (he clearly never was in the North before AGoT), perhaps when the Stark children visited their kin there (the descendants of Lord Edwyle's sister).

Robert and Lyanna met at the Tourney at Harrenhal. Ned passed on the acceptance @Winterfell during the winter tha followed. (Lyanna talked with Ned @Winterfell about the betrothal, trying to convince him not to convey the acceptance to Rickard, their father.)

ETA: Ned went from the Eyrie to Harrenhal, for the tourney, likely with Robert. He would not make a winter journey to Winterfell from the Eyrie, and from Winterfell back to the Eyrie, and then back to Harrenhal. It seems far more likley that after the tourney, where Lyanna and Robert had a chance to meet, and Lyanna to gather gossip about Robert, the weather was reasonable for a short time. After the Starks had all returned to Winterfell, winter returned, and kept them snowbound for a time. When winter lifted a date was set for Catelyn's and Brandon's wedding, and at that announcement Littlefinger challenged. Brandon and Ned left Winterfell, Ned for the Eyrie, and Brandon to answer Littlefinger's challenge at Riverrun.

[Lord Varys]

MtnLion,

that's complete conjecture. We don't know when Lyanna and Robert were betrothed, and thus it makes little sense to conclude that the conversation between Lyanna and Ned about Robert occurred after Harrenhal. It could even be a stretch to assume that the conversation occurred before Ned talked to Rickard about Robert's wish to marry Lyanna.

Why couldn't it have occurred after Rickard decided to marry Lyanna to Robert?

[MtnLion]

MtnLion,

that's complete conjecture. We don't know when Lyanna and Robert were betrothed, and thus it makes little sense to conclude that the conversation between Lyanna and Ned about Robert occurred after Harrenhal. It could even be a stretch to assume that the conversation occurred before Ned talked to Rickard about Robert's wish to marry Lyanna.

Why couldn't it have occurred after Rickard decided to marry Lyanna to Robert?

The conversation between Lyanna and Ned is at Winterfell, and the day of the announcement of the betrothal. Ned went from the Eyrie to Harrenhal for the tourney of the false spring. (not to Winterfell then Harrenhal.) We know that at least nine months, maybe closer to a year passed between Harrenhal and Littlefinger's challenge, Catelyn's wedding day . . . the beginning of the rebellion. It makes absolutely no sense to assume that the betrothal was before Harrenhal, as Robert certainly doesn't think much of his "supposed" betrothed the first night.

[RumHam]

I always thought it was before Harrenhal, and that that was part of the reason "all the smiles died" when Rhaegar crowned Lyanna. I guess it could have just been because he had a wife.

[stateofdissipation]

Regardless of when the betrothals were made, the weddings were definitely after Harrenhal...

A betrothal can be kept quiet or secret. A marriage is a public affair. Rhaegar disrupted the marriages, not the betrothals.

Back to where Rhaegar named the tower of joy... an odd name for a man Selmy thought was incapsable of happiness.

Rhaegar thought that he was the prince that was promised. Later he came to believe that his son would be. From the HotU dream, we hear Rhaegar say that Aegon was the prince that was promised... and the dragon must have three heads. Aemon spoke of the three heads of the dragon... in his interpretation the heads of the dragon need not be siblings. Because Rhaegar said there must be one more.. does not mean he set out to make one more any more than he set out to make Aegon on the night of the comet.

--I still hold to the hypothesis that Ned knew Rhaegar did not have sex before marriage based on his thoughts outside the brothel.

--I still hold the hypothesis that Rhaegar set Elia aside...based on Cersei's-- how long till he sets me aside for some new Lyanna.

That being said, Rhaegar fell in love with Lyanna and was happy for the first time in his melancholy life. His concern was for the girl rather than the prophecy.

[RumHam]

--I still hold the hypothesis that Rhaegar set Elia aside...based on Cersei's-- how long till he sets me aside for some new Lyanna.

Just to clarify when you say "set aside" do you mean an annulment? I always thought that's what it meant, but then the Sons of the Dragon report said Maegor set aside Ceryse but they didn't get an annulment.

I don't think Rhaegar could just decide to "set aside" Elia. He would need permission from either the High Septon or the king. I don't think something like that would be kept secret.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

The tourney itself took place during the false spring period, but we have no idea how long before the tourney the winter weather had ceased. It could have been spring-like weather for months before the tourney, with winter returning soon after the tourney. Or the winter weather had ceased shortly before the tourney, and continued for long after the Tourney.

Tourney's are usually announced a few months before they occur. Wouldn't it make more sense to announce a tourney while the weather is getting better again? Meaning that the spring weather had begun multiple months before the tourney..

In that case, the winter weather might have returned not all too long after the tourney..

And with multiple months of spring weather before the tourney, Ned could easily have been travelling... He could also travel in the winter.. It is winter frequently in Westeros, after all, and the people in the north don't cease to move around during those times..

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Regardless of when the betrothals were made, the weddings were definitely after Harrenhal...

A betrothal can be kept quiet or secret. A marriage is a public affair. Rhaegar disrupted the marriages, not the betrothals.

What was there to disrupt in the betrothals? Lyanna did nothing wrong, as long as her reaction to receiving the crown was appropriate.

And we know nothing of her reaction to it. So we can't say whether or not Rhaegars actions could have disrupted the betrothal.

[Lord Varys]

Do we know that the conversation between Ned and Lyanna is on the day of the announcement of the betrothal?

Even if this is the case, this in itself gives us no clue whatsoever when this event occurred.

[stateofdissipation]

Just to clarify when you say "set aside" do you mean an annulment? I always thought that's what it meant, but then the Sons of the Dragon report said Maegor set aside Ceryse but they didn't get an annulment.

I don't think Rhaegar could just decide to "set aside" Elia. He would need permission from either the High Septon or the king. I don't think something like that would be kept secret.

I do not know... all I know is that Cersei asked the question How long till he (Robert) decides to set me aside for some new Lyanna?--Cersei aGoT page 79

There is also Renly's plan to make a girl that looked like Lyanna Robert's queen..,

If such a thing never happened... Cersi should not have thought it and Renly should not have plotted it. They did and the concern and plot, both named Lyanna.

iHad Rhaegar or Lyanna survived to provide an explanation or Renly or Cersei cited a base for their statements, I could cite it.

If Renly and Cersei had scanned the sky for a one-eyed-one-horned-flying-purple-people-eater said they were doing so in front of others and not been questioned or ridiculed on the subject.... It would be safe to say that the creature exists in the world of ice and fire... I could not describe it other than what was given...adding size, wings, claws, fangs etc would give a clearer picture of the animal... without the additional description the animal still exists.

[Alia of the knife]

How could he, since the marriage were after the start of the Rebellion?

Historically speaking, they would have needed a Monarchs permission before even a betrothal was made to ensure such power blocs didn't happen.

In this, I actually do think Martin deviates from history. Perhaps as long as the lords and Septons looked the other way on Targaryen marriage practices, they in turn didn't interfere with their lords marriages.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I do not know... all I know is that Cersei asked the question How long till he (Robert) decides to set me aside for some new Lyanna?--Cersei aGoT page 79

There is also Renly's plan to make a girl that looked like Lyanna Robert's queen..,

If such a thing never happened... Cersi should not have thought it and Renly should not have plotted it. They did and the concern and plot, both named Lyanna.

iHad Rhaegar or Lyanna survived to provide an explanation or Renly or Cersei cited a base for their statements, I could cite it.

If Renly and Cersei had scanned the sky for a one-eyed-one-horned-flying-purple-people-eater said they were doing so in front of others and not been questioned or ridiculed on the subject.... It would be safe to say that the creature exists in the world of ice and fire... I could not describe it other than what was given...adding size, wings, claws, fangs etc would give a clearer picture of the animal... without the additional description the animal still exists.

There's a first time for everything :)

That it hadn't happenned before, doesn't mean it couldn't happen. Cersei's thoughts are not always the most logical... Making Margaery Robert's queen might not have (according to Renly) upset Tywin too much (because Tywin's grandchildren would still inherit the throne), yet would rid the court of Cersei.

And setting a wife aside had occured before, just not with a King. In that case, the wife joined the Silent Sisters.

[BearQueen87]

I do not know... all I know is that Cersei asked the question How long till he (Robert) decides to set me aside for some new Lyanna?--Cersei aGoT page 79

There is also Renly's plan to make a girl that looked like Lyanna Robert's queen..,

If such a thing never happened... Cersi should not have thought it and Renly should not have plotted it. They did and the concern and plot, both named Lyanna.

iHad Rhaegar or Lyanna survived to provide an explanation or Renly or Cersei cited a base for their statements, I could cite it.

Well that's not true. Both are capable of thinking about "setting aside" wives without it having to be tied back to Rhaegar and Elia. Lyanna's name is brought up because of her symbolic importance to Robert, something Cersei and Renly know very well.

[Alia of the knife]

Regardless of when the betrothals were made, the weddings were definitely after Harrenhal...

A betrothal can be kept quiet or secret. A marriage is a public affair. Rhaegar disrupted the marriages, not the betrothals.

Back to where Rhaegar named the tower of joy... an odd name for a man Selmy thought was incapsable of happiness.

Rhaegar thought that he was the prince that was promised. Later he came to believe that his son would be. From the HotU dream, we hear Rhaegar say that Aegon was the prince that was promised... and the dragon must have three heads. Aemon spoke of the three heads of the dragon... in his interpretation the heads of the dragon need not be siblings. Because Rhaegar said there must be one more.. does not mean he set out to make one more any more than he set out to make Aegon on the night of the comet.

--I still hold to the hypothesis that Ned knew Rhaegar did not have sex before marriage based on his thoughts outside the brothel.

--I still hold the hypothesis that Rhaegar set Elia aside...based on Cersei's-- how long till he sets me aside for some new Lyanna.

That being said, Rhaegar fell in love with Lyanna and was happy for the first time in his melancholy life. His concern was for the girl rather than the prophecy.

I agree.

The Tower of Joy sounds like there is ecstasy going on, and fulfilling the prophesy was a byproduct of that.

And if the Targaryens can get away with incest and polygamy, they can probably get a divorce.

To me, it's more honest a state for both women, because at least Elia would be free to follow her own heart.

[stateofdissipation]

What was there to disrupt in the betrothals? Lyanna did nothing wrong, as long as her reaction to receiving the crown was appropriate.

And we know nothing of her reaction to it. So we can't say whether or not Rhaegars actions could have disrupted the betrothal.T

There were arrangements made to marry Stark to Tully to Baratheon--- 3/4 of the rebelling houses--Arryns were in the mix by association.

I made the hypothesis that these marriages formed a power base that could rival the Targaryens. It was stated as a hypothesis as it derives intent from outcome.

I cited that Rhaegar's abduction of Lyanna disrupted that power base.

I made a hypothesis that Rhaegar abducted Lyanna to disrupt that power base. Again it is a hypothesis taking intent from outcome.

Somebody brought up that the betrothals happened before Harrenhal--- another cited they happened after...I stated that the time of the betrothals is not given,

I followed up by abstaining from the discussion pro-con-unknown... I stated the timing of the betrothals had no impact on the timing of the betrothals as Rhaegar acted to disrupt the weddings.

[stateofdissipation]

There's a first time for everything :)

That it hadn't happenned before, doesn't mean it couldn't happen. Cersei's thoughts are not always the most logical... Making Margaery Robert's queen might not have (according to Renly) upset Tywin too much (because Tywin's grandchildren would still inherit the throne), yet would rid the court of Cersei.

And setting a wife aside had occured before, just not with a King. In that case, the wife joined the Silent Sisters.

If the plot and the concern mentioned the silent sisters or Ser whosit or Lady donwanna it would point to its basis in history. They mentioned Lyanna.

Cersei's statement came in Bran's chapter. Were it a passing thought it could be easily discounted. It was a statement that got a response.---"you should think less about the future and more about the pleasures at hand."---Jamie aGoT page 76 -- the concern was not dismissed as unrealistic. it was dismissed as a future concern.

---Note that is remarkably close to arguing absence of evidence is evidence of absence-- please regard as a hypothesis.

Renly's came in Ned's chapter and Catelyn's chapter. The mention of Lyanna and the plot were not made together to the same person.

[MtnLion]

The postulation that Ned's secret is something other than Jon... is no more speculative than insisting that it can only be Jon.

The postulation that the rebellion was based on a lie.... points to evidence of Aery's behavior and how that does not match what Jon Arryn claimed Aerys demanded. It also points to the fact that without lyanna's kidnapping the houses that rebelled would have been bound to each other through marriage.

Helen of Troy... the face that launched a thousand ships... nice story. Greece's trade competition with Troy should not be ignored.

The mad king... his murderous ways caused the rebellion... nice story. The schemes and plots of the great Lords should not be ignored.

Well, if you are claiming that Aerys acted perfectly reasonably with each of his Hands, I believe that you are mistaken. It is not just how Aerys reacted to the Starks, it is how he roasted Chelsted for begging him to put aside his wildfyre plot, and ultimately resigning over it.

I don't believe for a minute that you have anything even hinting at the plotting that you are outlining. I believe that many here agree with me. You chastise everyone for interpretations, then overreach on this . . . Odd, and duplicitous.

[MtnLion]

Do we know that the conversation between Ned and Lyanna is on the day of the announcement of the betrothal?

Even if this is the case, this in itself gives us no clue whatsoever when this event occurred.

"Robert will never keep to one bed," Lyanna had told him at Winterfell, on the night long ago when their father had promised her hand to the young Lord of Storm's End. " I hear he has gotten a child on some girl in the Vale." Ned had held the babe in his arms; he could scarcely deny her, nor would he lie to his sister, but he had assured her that what Robert did before their betrothal was of no matter, that he was a good man and true who would love her with all his heart.--aGoT page 367

It needed to be after Mya Stone's birth. And some time after, since Ned remembers holding her. And, once more, Ned remembers going to the tourney from the Eyrie, no further travel to Winterfell and back, and it would border on insanity to make the trip from the Eyrie to Winterfell and back, during the winter for some reason that a raven could handle. Robert wanted to meet Lyanna before he agreed, that is common. Robert has never been to Winterfell before GoT. The point where they could have met and Robert expressed interest is the Tourney at Harrenhal. This gives Ned a reason to travel to Winterfell after the tourney, to convey Robert's acceptance to Rickard.

[stateofdissipation]

Well that's not true. Both are capable of thinking about "setting aside" wives without it having to be tied back to Rhaegar and Elia. Lyanna's name is brought up because of her symbolic importance to Robert, something Cersei and Renly know very well.

You are absolutely correct. I will add that as a qualifier to the hypothesis.

The other methods for having R marry L do have drawbacks as well...

Polygamy was not practiced in 240 some odd plus years... and when it was it was King's with dragons... not Princes with dragon banners.

This hypothesis is based on another where Ned's thoughts establish R married L. This hypothesis on a mechanism of marriage supports the earlier hypothesis. An ambiguous passage from the text over an ambiguous SSM for the mechanism would seem arbitrary. However, the text supports the earlier Hypothesis that includes Lyanna's statement---"Robert will never keep to one bed"--aGoT page 367