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R+L =J v.105


Jon Weirgaryen

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To be the Lord of Winterfell, or Not to be? That is the question -

Whether 'tis nobler on the Wall to suffer

The slings and arrows of outrageous Wildlings,

or to take arms against a sea of Boltons

And by opposing end them? To be stabbed, to sleep—

No more; and by a sleep, to say we end

The moping about Ygrette, and the thousand natural shocks

That bastards are heir to? 'Tis a consummation

Devoutly to be wished. To die, to sleep,

To sleep, perchance to warg into Ghost; Aye, there's the rub,

For in that sleep of death, what wights may come,

When we have shuffled off this mortal coil,

Must give us pause.

Oh Bravo!

:bowdown:

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To be the Lord of Winterfell, or Not to be? That is the question -

Whether 'tis nobler on the Wall to suffer

The slings and arrows of outrageous Wildlings,

or to take arms against a sea of Boltons

And by opposing end them? To be stabbed, to sleep—

No more; and by a sleep, to say we end

The moping about Ygrette, and the thousand natural shocks

That bastards are heir to? 'Tis a consummation

Devoutly to be wished. To die, to sleep,

To sleep, perchance to warg into Ghost; Aye, there's the rub,

For in that sleep of death, what wights may come,

When we have shuffled off this mortal coil,

Must give us pause.

WOW.

Nicely done. Feel free to keep providing us with little things like this. :)

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I think that Jon's journey will be one of coming full circle. He has spent his life as a Stark, (for all intents and purposes), in the North.



At some point, he will have to come to terms with being a Targaryen,(whether that means anything initially to him or not). He will have to come to terms with Neds deception and the true nature of his parents relationship versus Roberts version of events.


He will have to come to terms with the Berantheons, (and we already see a hint of Jons view of Robert at Winterfell and it will be interesting how he will then deal with Stannis as the brother of the man who killed his father and inadvertently caused the downfall of House Stark).


He will have to deal with seeing his "siblings" in a different light, even as he realizes the horror of the deaths of his true siblings. (The times, and even the Martells may demand he remember his duty for vengeance and justice for his siblings despite who his mother was).


We already see the beginnings of Jon's becoming a "grey" character, and whether or not he becomes king, (and there is still Robbs letter), he still may very well become the thing he hates- a tyrant because of the reality of holding such forces together which still ties in nicely with the image of the old kings of Winter.

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If Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna to have her for his own or if the two ran off together for love. Lyanna and Rhaegar started the war. Their action had consequences. Brandon's reaction then Aerys's reaction to Brandon. It can be argued that they were not the proximate cause of the rebellion because Brandon's and Aerys's reactions were unforeseeable. The pair was doubtlessly the cause in fact.--The formal Latin term for cause-in-fact causation is sine qua no causation. Informally "but for". But for Rhaegar kidnapping Lyanna the rebellion never would have happened.

There is a way to view Rhaegar and Lyanna as neither the proximate cause or the cause in fact of the rebellion: Lyanna's kidnapping was not an independent action. If Lyanna was kidnapped to stop the Stark-Baratheon tie into the Stark-Tully-Arryn alliance, then the alliance was the cause of the rebellion.

--It has been pointed out that Arryn was not part of the marriage pacts.

Lysa's match with Lord Arryn had been hastily arranged... He needed a young wife if house Arryn was to continue... A young wife known to be fertile. aSoS SS page 39.

This would seem to indicate that the match was hastily arranged in the wake of Aerys's killing Brandon and company. Hoster Tully's younger daughter happened to be proved fertile (By littlefinger) in time for a hastily arranged marriage that required a young wife known to be fertile.

"He wrote to me at Riverrun after Brandon was killed, but I burned the letter unread. By then, I knew Ned would marry me in his brother's place."--Catelyn aGoT page 161

This would seem to indicate that Littlefinger was wounded by Brandon and sent away as soon as he was well enough to travel. Littlefinger was sent away as soon as he was well enough to travel and Lysa was pregnant. This can be read as Littlefinger had been sent away before Cat knew she would marry Ned.

That leaves Lysa's pregnancy as an unbelievably fortunate accident or a design.

Catelyn thought that Lysa was the price Jon Arryn paid for Tully Swords to bind house Tully to the Rebellion. However, Cat's marriage to Stark had bound the Tullys to the rebellion. Hypothesis--a young wife known to be fertile was the price Hoster paid for Jon Arryn's swords.

Regardless of the direction of the deal between Hoster and Jon or Jon Arryn's part in the alliance-- if the alliance between Baratheon and Stark was a threat to the Targaryens and Rhaegar was reacting to that threat then Rhaegar kidnapping Lyanna was not the cause (proximate or in fact) of the rebellion.

Two things

Lysa's match with Jon Arryn was hastily arranged. Cat's own marriage to Ned was arranged after Brandon had died, and since she doesn't think of her own marriage as having been arranged hastily, that means that Lysa's own match to Jon was arranged a while after Cat's match to Ned.

Catelyn later shows that she believes the reason for the match was the Battle of the Bells and its outcome (Jon Arryn's last heir died), suggesting that the match was made a couple of months into the war only, (don't get me wrong, it is possible that the match was agreed upon before the battle, but it won't have been too long before).

It is mentioned that LF was send away a fortnight after the duel. Lysa couldn´t have known that she was pregnant, yet, so her telling Hoster that she was pregnant would have occured a while after LF was gone. The app (IIRC) stated that Lysa told Hoster she was pregnant because she hoped that Hoster would relent and allow her to marry LF. Hoster, in turn, gave her the potion.. And we know the result from that.

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I used to think that Jon was probably central, but after the way Mance manipulated him into getting himself killed with the letter sent near the end of aDwD, I'm not so sure. If you look at what Jon has actually accomplished, versus what the expectations of him are in the minds of most readers, he's a relative failure. He reminds me of Harry Potter defeating Voldemort. Harry won because of some innate bull shit that had nothing to do with his actual talent. I really hope that this isn't the way that ASOIF ends up; Jon, at this point, does not deserve to sit the Iron Throne, and he certainly doesn't deserve to be the Son(g) of Ice and Fire.

That being said, I still cheer for him... He's as moral and down to earth as it comes in the novels. I just don't think he's either very smart, talented, or capable (I'll give him talent with a sword and at command).

I don't think it's that Jon has been a failure, it's that his story won't play out the way many expect it to.

Jon's storyline has been 100% the North and the Wall. Assuming he wakes his 3 motivations I can think of would be saving Hardhome, revenge on who stabbed him or the letter. I don't see his story heading south any time soon.

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Originally posted by Eira Siren in response to what R+L=J means to Jon if it's true:

On one level, it matters to Jon's character. The one question that keeps popping up in his own mind concerns his mother. Then, there's the part where he feels shut out from belonging in his dreams of the crypts of Winterfell. And another part, where the tension he feels between staying in the NW and otherwise belonging to the rest of the world:

"He had no destination in mind. He wanted only to ride. He followed the creek for a time, listening to the icy trickle of water over rock, then cut across the fields to the kingsroad. It stretched out before him, narrow and stony and pocked with weeds, a road of no particular promise, yet the sight of it filled Jon Snow with a vast longing. Winterfell was down that road, and beyond it Riverrun and King's Landing and the Eyrie and so many other places; Casterly Rock, the Isle of Faces, the red mountains of Dorne, the hundred islands of Braavos in the sea, the smoking ruins of old Valyria. All the places that Jon would never see. The world was down that road . . . and he was here." (Jon AGOT)

Why Jon thinks that he'll be able to travel if he chooses other employment options, I don't know. I'm not going to make too much of it, but do think it interesting that on his list are the Isle of Faces, the red mountains of Dorne (possibly his birthplace), and "the smoking ruins of old Valyria."

Additionally, he views the kingsroad as "a road of no particular promise, yet the sight of it filled [him] with a vast longing," which could mean a destiny that he is leaving behind by joining the NW. Oddly enough, the road he describes doesn't end in KL and the location of the IT, but takes him all the way past Dorne (past his potential place of birth), and back to Valyria, as if it is in fact a road that could take him back through history, his own, and the origins of the Targaryens.

Instead, Jon goes North.

Jon seems to reject everything Targ in favor of Stark.

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I don't think it's that Jon has been a failure, it's that his story won't play out the way many expect it to.

Jon's storyline has been 100% the North and the Wall. Assuming he wakes his 3 motivations I can think of would be saving Hardhome, revenge on who stabbed him or the letter. I don't see his story heading south any time soon.

South as in KL? No. But I do think he's going to be leaving the Wall. It's static to have one of your very main character stuck in one place.

If Jon needs to get the word out about the Others coming, he may have to leave the Wall and take up that task himself.

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Jon seems to reject everything Targ in favor of Stark.

...and when did he do that? When has he ever had the chance to reject everything Targ in the first place, considering he doesn't even know who he is?

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Two things

Lysa's match with Jon Arryn was hastily arranged. Cat's own marriage to Ned was arranged after Brandon had died, and since she doesn't think of her own marriage as having been arranged hastily, that means that Lysa's own match to Jon was arranged a while after Cat's match to Ned.

Catelyn later shows that she believes the reason for the match was the Battle of the Bells and its outcome (Jon Arryn's last heir died), suggesting that the match was made a couple of months into the war only, (don't get me wrong, it is possible that the match was agreed upon before the battle, but it won't have been too long before).

It is mentioned that LF was send away a fortnight after the duel. Lysa couldn´t have known that she was pregnant, yet, so her telling Hoster that she was pregnant would have occured a while after LF was gone. The app (IIRC) stated that Lysa told Hoster she was pregnant because she hoped that Hoster would relent and allow her to marry LF. Hoster, in turn, gave her the potion.. And we know the result from that.

Catelyn is generally about as smart as a sack of hair... a bag of hammers.. a box of rocks.. it took her 15 years plus to figure out Lysa was pregnant. She never bothered to think about the father or the implications of the timing. Regardless of Jon Arryn's nephew and cousin, Jon had no heir through two wives. He had named his nephew his heir. (Robb named Jon his heir until he had a son)

The suggestion that the marriage was arranged a couple months in to the war comes running in to the fact that the father of the child had left Riverrun while Brandon was still alive.

Lysa could not have known she was pregnant. Hoster could show she was fertile if she became pregnant in two weeks--if I recall correctly that is how long Cat and Ned stayed together--

Yes Lysa told Hoster she was pregnant in hopes he would let her marry Littlefinger. Hoster's reaction is known. However if the pregnancy was part of his plan or against his plan is the question.

His daughter "accidentally" showed herself to be fertile immediately before marrying a man that was without an heir.

Catelyn thought that Lysa was the price Jon paid for Hoster's swords and tying the Tullys to the rebellion. --Cat not bright-- Catelyn's marriage tied the Tullys and their swords to the rebellion.

Lysa's marriage tied Tully to Arryn, Cat's tied Tully to Stark. Ties work two ways. Hoster married off his daughters to bind houses to his own as well as to tie his house to theirs.

Had Lysa been stupid and become pregnant against her father's wishes, giving her the moon tea and binding himself to the Arryns to give her a suitable husband would have been saving her from herself, hardly a source for the kind of death-bed guilt Hoster seemed to have.

Had Hoster allowed Lysa to become pregnant to show her fertile in order to marry her to Jon Arryn. The pregnancy, abortion, and marriage were things he did to his daughter to further his agenda. That would prove an undeniable source for a guilty conscience.

The latter would also mean that the ties binding the Vale, Riverlands. and the north were in the works before the mad king killed Brandon. The last rebel house, the Baratheons, would have been bound with the rest had not Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna.

--Littlefinger, the second most devious man in the realm according to Varys, grew up a ward to Hoster Tully. Littlefinger's machinations and schemes are something he learned from his father or Hoster Tully. Hoster managed quite a big bump in social status during his lifetime. His children married into the Vale and the North, His grandchildren were set to marry in to the throne. Lord Baelish managed to get his son to foster with his betters.

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I personally don't believe that Jon is a failure either, but he is in a learning curve which GRRM has written realistically.

But, I will say being in a leadership position myself, that some of the best lessons come from failure if one chooses to learn from them.

Its easy to be captain of a ship when it's smooth sailing, and everyone gets along, but what happens when the waters get rough and everyone is fighting amongst themselves?

Jon is doing quite well given he's managing the Wall and nothing better than hardened criminals.

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I phrased that wrong.Lyanna was really a tragic character but it was dumb what she did. She knew how Brandon was going to react. I am all for true love but this is a different time. Aerys was to blame for his own downfall competely but I think a rebellion was going to happen no matter what once Rhaeger took Lyanna whether it was love or rape. Everything points to the fact that various groups wanted to be free of the throne. Rickard Stark was planning something and so was Holster. There is no denying that. Robert was a pawn but he was the leader of his house. Jon Arynn was also interesting- but I don't know if he was just following the other two or was the lead in this mess.

Aerys should have killed Robert first. Simple as that. Then they could no longer say they were going for the throne. I mean who were they going to put up? Stannis wasn't as easily mapinulated and if Robert was dead... I am not sure what Stannis would do. That man is a confusing mess when it comes to his honor.

I have seen divorce childern beat themselves up. I can't imagine the feeling I would get if I knew my parents started a war for me. Really it's a wait and see thing. Jon has always been hard on himself and with his warging near death state I really have no idea how he will take the news. He might not even care. He just might think so what? Ned was my dad. Family has been an ongoing theme in this book and what their parents pass ot their childern. Look at relationships between the Lannister kids- all bitter,resentful, and down right hateful. Tywin was the cause for most of this. Then we have Doran and his kids- his lack of communication almost caused a war he wasn't ready for. The Baratheon brothers never got along because there parents died so early and robert was really the worst type of guyy to lead his family. A rock would have done better.

Ok. First, Lyanna might not be responsible, directly, to her "abduction", "elopement", whatever. We haven't read all the details. I believe the theory that Aerys demanded Rhaegar to bring her to him, because someone (Varys?) told the king that she was TKoTLT. So, indirectly, she might be responsible, yes. That's what Ned told Arya, that her "wolf blood" - or something like that - had brought her an early death. So please, do not assume Lyanna and Rhaegar were in love before the TOJ.

Second, even if this was true, why would Jon's birth be responsible for the war? Not even the "Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna Stark" event might have started it, if Brandon hadn't go to King's Landing asking for (shouting!) for Rhaegar to "come out and die". Jon by this time has not even been conceived! Remember, Robb is older than Jon...

And yes, funny that you mention Lannisters, because if someone's birth, and whose mother's lust was responsible for a war, this character was Joffrey, not Jon.

A tragedy is a tragedy, but Jon has seen so much of that world that I think he'll like to finally know who his mother was. He'll be relieved to know that his mother was not someone his father met briefly and abandoned him. What he'll do with this information, and if he'll be able to do something with it, only Martin knows.

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1. The suggestion that the marriage was arranged a couple months in to the war comes running in to the fact that the father of the child had left Riverrun while Brandon was still alive.

2. Lysa could not have known she was pregnant. Hoster could show she was fertile if she became pregnant in two weeks--if I recall correctly that is how long Cat and Ned stayed together--

3. Yes Lysa told Hoster she was pregnant in hopes he would let her marry Littlefinger. Hoster's reaction is known. However if the pregnancy was part of his plan or against his plan is the question.

4. His daughter "accidentally" showed herself to be fertile immediately before marrying a man that was without an heir.

5. Had Lysa been stupid and become pregnant against her father's wishes, giving her the moon tea and binding himself to the Arryns to give her a suitable husband would have been saving her from herself, hardly a source for the kind of death-bed guilt Hoster seemed to have.

1. The suggestion that Lysa's marriage was a couple of months into the war comes from "arranged hastily". Though it is possible (and likely) that Catelyn did not know the exact reasons for Lysa's marriage, the moment the match was made known, Catelyn would have known about it.

2. Though technically a woman can become pregnant in 2 weeks, that is highly unlikely to happen. Ned stayed for two weeks with Catelyn... but no one says that he stayed long enough to see her pregnant... The was a war going on.. there were fights to get back to. Had remaining at Riverrun been to see the girls pregnant, Jon Arryn would have remained behind, according to that reasoning.

3. Hoster could not have known that Lysa and LF had slept together, nor that Lysa would become pregnant due to that encounter. Lysa becoming pregnant with LF's child was not part of any plan.

4. Though it wasn't immediately. Lysa married months after the duel took place.

5. Lysa nearly died because of what Hoster gave her. "the blood.." etc. That is something to feel guilty about on your deathbed, especially if you believe that that one event, that you caused, has created the problems your daughter had during all her other pregnancies...5 miscarriages, 2 stillbirths, 1 sickly small child.. That is stuff to feel guilty about when you are dying..

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1. The suggestion that Lysa's marriage was a couple of months into the war comes from "arranged hastily". Though it is possible (and likely) that Catelyn did not know the exact reasons for Lysa's marriage, the moment the match was made known, Catelyn would have known about it.

2. Though technically a woman can become pregnant in 2 weeks, that is highly unlikely to happen. Ned stayed for two weeks with Catelyn... but no one says that he stayed long enough to see her pregnant... The was a war going on.. there were fights to get back to. Had remaining at Riverrun been to see the girls pregnant, Jon Arryn would have remained behind, according to that reasoning.

3. Hoster could not have known that Lysa and LF had slept together, nor that Lysa would become pregnant due to that encounter. Lysa becoming pregnant with LF's child was not part of any plan.

4. Though it wasn't immediately. Lysa married months after the duel took place.

5. Lysa nearly died because of what Hoster gave her. "the blood.." etc. That is something to feel guilty about on your deathbed, especially if you believe that that one event, that you caused, has created the problems your daughter had during all her other pregnancies...5 miscarriages, 2 stillbirths, 1 sickly small child.. That is stuff to feel guilty about when you are dying..

1. Catelyn learned the of the marriage shortly before her own and after she had learned she would marry Ned rather than Brandon. Cat stipulated "a young wife known to be fertile" as a requirement for Jon's spouse. Lysa had not proved to be fertile till a short time before Cat's marriage.---more on that later

2. Lysa was pregnant when she married.

Afterward, when their moon blood at the accustomed time, Lysa had gushed happily about the sons she was sure they carried.--aSoS SS page 38

But Lysa's blood had come not long after and all the joy had gone out of her. Catelyn had always thought that Lysa had been a little late, but if she had been with child... --aSoS SS page 39

The two weeks Ned shared with Cat and the two weeks Littlefinger shared with Lysa left both girls pregnant.

3. What Hoster did or did not know really is not given. A reasonable person would think that leaving two teenagers unsupervised over a period of weeks could likely result in pregnancy. ---though it is a logical fallacy to derive outcome from intent, the alternative is fortuitous negligence.

4. I do not know how much time passed between Littlefinger being sent away and Lysa's marriage. The abortion is sometime after Catelyn's missed period following her marriage.

5. Father, who is this woman and what did you do to her that needs so much forgiveness?---Catelyn aSoS SS page 38

It was a rather late term abortion. That may have led to the later complications. --None of it was Hoster's doing or fault if he did right by Lysa... Hoster may have felt guilty about unintentional harm, He would have felt guilty if he had planned it.

---final note Hoster did not have Lysa's baby aborted until after the marriage though he obviously knew about it before the marriage.

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South as in KL? No. But I do think he's going to be leaving the Wall. It's static to have one of your very main character stuck in one place.

If Jon needs to get the word out about the Others coming, he may have to leave the Wall and take up that task himself.

I think he is either going to Winterfell or north of the Wall.

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1. Catelyn learned the of the marriage shortly before her own and after she had learned she would marry Ned rather than Brandon. Cat stipulated "a young wife known to be fertile" as a requirement for Jon's spouse. Lysa had not proved to be fertile till a short time before Cat's marriage.---more on that later

2. Lysa was pregnant when she married.

Afterward, when their moon blood at the accustomed time, Lysa had gushed happily about the sons she was sure they carried.--aSoS SS page 38

But Lysa's blood had come not long after and all the joy had gone out of her. Catelyn had always thought that Lysa had been a little late, but if she had been with child... --aSoS SS page 39

The two weeks Ned shared with Cat and the two weeks Littlefinger shared with Lysa left both girls pregnant.

3. What Hoster did or did not know really is not given. A reasonable person would think that leaving two teenagers unsupervised over a period of weeks could likely result in pregnancy. ---though it is a logical fallacy to derive outcome from intent, the alternative is fortuitous negligence.

4. I do not know how much time passed between Littlefinger being sent away and Lysa's marriage. The abortion is sometime after Catelyn's missed period following her marriage.

5. Father, who is this woman and what did you do to her that needs so much forgiveness?---Catelyn aSoS SS page 38

It was a rather late term abortion. That may have led to the later complications. --None of it was Hoster's doing or fault if he did right by Lysa... Hoster may have felt guilty about unintentional harm, He would have felt guilty if he had planned it.

---final note Hoster did not have Lysa's baby aborted until after the marriage though he obviously knew about it before the marriage.

1. Catelyn learned of Lysa's marriage shortly before they took place. She did not learn of Lysa's marriage before she learned of her own. Cat was betrothed to Ned first, Jon and Lysa came after.

2. And if you quote the entire passage, you'll read that Lysa's blood had come shortly after. I don't know if you are male of female, but especially when girls are still young (and Lysa was 16 years old), and don't have medication (birth control pill) to regulate their period, periods can be irregular. In fact, they can always be regular, but then randomly, once in a while, be irregular. Lysa would want to be pregnant.. Her husband is off to war, and a child is what is expected of you. That her period came soon after, and her depression (I think we can call it depression) kicked in shortly thereafter, shows that her expectations were crushed.

It's funny that you call Catelyn an idiot who misnterprets everything, and next try to use a quote of hers to try and prove a point...

3. Lysa was a rather shy girl, so Hoster could reasonably have thought that she wouldn't do such a thing. After all, he was raising proper young ladies, and those are being taught not to sleep around, and remain a virgin until the wedding night. That doesn't mean that they'll actually do so, but at least, there was no reason for Hoster to suspect anything like this.

Think about all the stuff that happened between the duel, and Lysa's marriage... LF was taken care of for a fortnight (he was seriously injured, and thus, the sex most likely happened in the end of that fortnight), then he was send away. A while after that (though not a specified while), Brandon is on his way back to Riverrun, but rides on to KL instead, where he is imprisoned. After he is imprisoned, Rickard is summoned. Two trips to KL takes a couple of weeks ;) Then, the "trials" happen, and Aerys sends his raven. Jon Arryn calls his banner, and fights with Robert in Gulltown. Robert returns to Storm's End after the fighting in Gulltown is done, and calls his own banners, and goes to fight at Summerhal. He then returns to SE, and next goes to fight at Ashford, after which he flees to the Riverlands, where he ends up at the Stony Sept, where the Battle of the Bells occurs. After all that, the marriages take place.

It's safe to say that months passed. If Lysa had still been pregnant, everyone at Riverrun would have been able to see it.

Also, Catelyn's description (which you quoted), suggests that Lysa became a little depressed (totally normal, for someone who believed so hard that she was pregnant, only to turn out that she wasn't..), but totally not that she had gotten sick. And as we know, Lysa had gotten very sick from the tea that Hoster had given her.

4. See above, months passed.

5. Had it been such a late-term abortion, than Lysa's pregnancy would not have been a secret for anyone at Riverrun... and thus also Catelyn. And as Catelyn had no idea, Lysa thus wasn't showing yet.. You begin to show around the 2nd or 3rd month.. Let it be clear from all the travelling that occured that more than 3 months passed between LF being send away, and Lysa getting married.

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Did you read what I quoted?

I won't speak for sj4iy, but in regards to the analysis you quoted, the division of Targ vs Stark exist for the readers in that moment, not Jon. He's not consciously trying to decide between Stark and Targaryen, but it is being read as a symbolic decision by the readers. It might foreshadow Jon consciously making a decision between Stark and Targaryen later down the line, though I hold that he will not choose one or other but embrace both aspects.

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