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Elessar

Casually smashing a theory to pieces....

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It has been confirmed that the theory that was originally referenced as being "casually smashed" by WoIaF is A+J=C+J because the books suggests that Joanna left KL about 3 years before the birth of the twins and "seldom returned" giving little opportunity to have been there at the time of the twins' conception. Of course, seldom is not the same as never, and KL is not the only place to meet, so in retrospect, it was acknowledged that the theory was not quite as smashed as originally considered. But it is has been confirmed by Ran that the original reference by him to casually smashing a theory was a reference by him to A+J=C+J (although Ran admits that GRRM added fuel to the A+J=T theory).

Oh yeah I forgot about A+J=C+J.

You know the Tyrion thing though I am glad Ran mentioned, not to smash or prove a theory but rather to get the point across that for whatever reason Martin has laid some clues for that and enforced them. I don't mind people not believing that theory but rather when they argue the clues don't exist. However it turns out it seems there are substantial clues, whatever it is, misdirection, red herring, real or something in between. There is fuel for that fire whatever kind of fire it is.

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Oh yeah I forgot about A+J=C+J.

You know the Tyrion thing though I am glad Ran mentioned, not to smash or prove a theory but rather to get the point across that for whatever reason Martin has laid some clues for that and enforced them. I don't mind people not believing that theory but rather when they argue the clues don't exist. However it turns out it seems there are substantial clues, whatever it is, misdirection, red herring, real or something in between. There is fuel for that fire whatever kind of fire it is.

Yeah, that is what bothers me the most. The insistence that there are no clues for it or that the people who see the clues just "want" it to be that way. I think it has now been proven conclusively that the ones who "want" it to be a certain way are those who don't like A+J=T, rather than those who do see what it right in front of them.

ETA: Denial is a powerful drug.

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Yeah, that is what bothers me the most. The insistence that there are no clues for it or that the people who see the clues just "want" it to be that way. I think it has now been proven conclusively that the ones who "want" it to be a certain way are those who don't like A+J=T, rather than those who do see what it right in front of them.

ETA: Denial is a powerful drug.

denial is not just a long river in Africa!

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Yeah, that is what bothers me the most. The insistence that there are no clues for it or that the people who see the clues just "want" it to be that way. I think it has now been proven conclusively that the ones who "want" it to be a certain way are those who don't like A+J=T, rather than those who do see what it right in front of them.

ETA: Denial is a powerful drug.

Well I am no one to talk. The first time I read that theory way back when I thought it was wrong, it sort of based on his eye color back then. Just not enough info and lots of speculation but as the theory came together over time it got better. About a year ago it popped up again I was a lot more impressed with the theory. Not only did they theory evolve with much more evidence and I tried to supply what little I could to one of the authors, not sure if it was the original, don't remember it's been awhile. Right or wrong at the very least I realized Tyrion and Tywins lives are both heavily associated with the Targaryens, Tywin with Aerys and Rhaegar and of course the murder of Elia and her children. Tyrion with Jon, Dany and Aegon, I mean he has not met Dany yet but you know. Tywin is a major cause in brining down the Targs and my own theory that he played father off the son to generate conflict. Well as history repeats and the inverse often applies, might Tyrion help return the Targs to there place of power?

If I recall correctly, it was not just Aegon and his sisters, but Aegons Bastard Brother Orys Baratheon as well, if the parallels hold true, and the symbolism is a natural opposition. Tyrion would be Dany's Bastard brother at least rumored to be and a hand to boot.

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Just because people don't 'think' this logic works, Tyrion certainly does and it will be enough for him. Here is all the proof Tyrion needs;



"No one. Most of the stories you hear about dragons are fodder for fools. Talking Dragons, dragons with four legs and bellies big as elephants, dragons riddling with sphinxes.....nonsense, all of it. But there are truths int eh old books as well. Not only do I know that the queen's dragons took to you, but I know why."



"My mother said my father had a drop of drgaon blood."



"Two drops."




Tyrion is, quite clearly, saying that 'the drgaons like you because of your Targ ancestry'. Even though BBP is ignorant of his own family tree, He is not even 100% sure he has 'dragonblood' only that his mother told him. But Tyrion is CERTAIN about it, do posters really think this is a coincidence? Someone answer me!



Tyrion knows, for a fact, why the dragons like BBP. So when/if he is able to approach/ride Viserion, there is no doubt that he will immediately figure out why. Not only that but Barristan specifically told Dany that Aerys liked Joanna, so when Dany hears about Tyrion riding, she will also understand why. Barristan never mentioned any other mistresses of Aerys to Dany, only Joanna.......Clearly laying the ground work for her to understand later why this Dwarf is able to ride one of her dragons. Same thing for Tyrion...he will know who his father is based on his beliefs that 'blood of the dragon' makes dragons like you.



This is actually a fairly simple idea, I have no idea why it has to be so complicated!!!! It's all right there in Tyrion's DwD chapters.


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Just because people don't 'think' this logic works, Tyrion certainly does and it will be enough for him. Here is all the proof Tyrion needs;

Tyrion is, quite clearly, saying that 'the drgaons like you because of your Targ ancestry'. Even though BBP is ignorant of his own family tree, He is not even 100% sure he has 'dragonblood' only that his mother told him. But Tyrion is CERTAIN about it, do posters really think this is a coincidence? Someone answer me!

Tyrion knows, for a fact, why the dragons like BBP. So when/if he is able to approach/ride Viserion, there is no doubt that he will immediately figure out why. Not only that but Barristan specifically told Dany that Aerys like Joanna, so when Dany hears about Tyrion riding, she will also understand why. Barristan never mentioned any other mistresses of Aerys to Dany, only Joanna.......Clearly laying the ground work for her to understand later why this Dwarf is able to ride one of her dragons. Same thing for Tyrion...he will know who his father is based on his beliefs that 'blood of the dragon' makes dragons like you.

This is actually a fairly simple idea, I have no idea why it has to be so complicated!!!! It's all right there in Tyrion's DwD chapters.

Does it count if I answer you and confirm that I do NOT believe it is a coincidence? :smoking:

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Does it count if I answer you and confirm that I do NOT believe it is a coincidence? :smoking:

Lol, It goes without saying. :cheers:

I really want someone on the other side of the argument to try and answer. I doubt anyone will because there is no argument, there is no getting around what is clearly written in the books. And I dare anyone to try :devil: .......

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Lol, It goes without saying. :cheers:

I really want someone on the other side of the argument to try and answer. I doubt anyone will because there is no argument, there is no getting around what is clearly written in the books. And I dare anyone to try :devil: .......

Yes, I knew that was what you were looking for, which is why I phrased my response the way I did. I was just trying to be funny and also try to encourage someone on the other side to take a shot at the counter argument. They used to argue that we were "seeing things" that were not there and making up "crackpot theories" out of nowhere. Now that this line of argument has effectively been removed, I think the only argument they really have left is that GRRM is trolling us. He is putting in clues that only attentive readers will notice, but they are mere dead ends. They are not really red herrings because they are not distractions from the "real answer" to a mystery. They are just clues to "trick" the reader just to amuse GRRM--even though very few readers will even pick up on the clues. It assumes that GRRM is interested in trolling his most loyal and attentive readers--which is pretty much what he has confirmed he will not do because it would essentially be "lying" to the readers and he is not a liar.

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I've argued before (somewhere in the last few days, but I can't recall where exactly) that Valyrian blood is necessary to ride a dragon. So I agree with that. Does Tyrion know this? Well, if he doesn't for certain, he at least seems to suspect it.



Should (emphasize "should" here) Tyrion be able to ride a dragon of his own, will that mean that Dany knows instantly that Tyrion is the child of Aerys and Joanna? No, she doesn't have to know anything about that. Dany hasn't read lots of books about dragons, like Tyrion has. Dany has a very limited knowledge about such things, and might not even know, or have thought, about bloodlines necessary for riding a dragon.



As to Tyrion and thoughts he will form, should he be able to ride a dragon... Tyrion has never given any indication of having known anything about rumours about Joanna and Aerys, be it pre-marriage or post-marriage to Tywin. I suspect that, should Tyrion be able to ride a dragon, he'd sooner suspect the horn had anything to do with it, than Aerys.. For Tyrion to conclude "hey, I can ride a dragon, so I must be a Targaryen (bastard)", that can only be done if Tyrion has more pieces of the puzzle. Which he has not, currently.






I personally do not believe in A+J=T. I see the arguments made for it, and should it eventually turn out to be true, I will admit, it did not come out of thin air, but still, I personally don't find the arguments to be very strong..


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I do find the arguments for A+J=T quite strong, although I dislike this theory a lot. Thought, if someone has to be Aerys' son, better Tyrion than Jaime for me, so I'm a bit happy that A+J=J+C is less likely after this book came out.


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I've argued before (somewhere in the last few days, but I can't recall where exactly) that Valyrian blood is necessary to ride a dragon. So I agree with that. Does Tyrion know this? Well, if he doesn't for certain, he at least seems to suspect it.

Should (emphasize "should" here) Tyrion be able to ride a dragon of his own, will that mean that Dany knows instantly that Tyrion is the child of Aerys and Joanna? No, she doesn't have to know anything about that. Dany hasn't read lots of books about dragons, like Tyrion has. Dany has a very limited knowledge about such things, and might not even know, or have thought, about bloodlines necessary for riding a dragon.

As to Tyrion and thoughts he will form, should he be able to ride a dragon... Tyrion has never given any indication of having known anything about rumours about Joanna and Aerys, be it pre-marriage or post-marriage to Tywin. I suspect that, should Tyrion be able to ride a dragon, he'd sooner suspect the horn had anything to do with it, than Aerys.. For Tyrion to conclude "hey, I can ride a dragon, so I must be a Targaryen (bastard)", that can only be done if Tyrion has more pieces of the puzzle. Which he has not, currently.

I personally do not believe in A+J=T. I see the arguments made for it, and should it eventually turn out to be true, I will admit, it did not come out of thin air, but still, I personally don't find the arguments to be very strong..

Well the reasons I think Tyrion will reason out who his father is, are these;

1. Barristan is nearby and knows about A+J having some sort of flirtation, he could easily tell Tyrion as he told Dany.

2. Tyrion clearly thinks that for the dragons to like you, you need dragon blood, which he was proven right about in the case of BBP. Tyrion has obviously read a book that says 'Dragons are only fond of people with the Blood of the Dragon.'

3. Drogon flew right over Tyrion when he was aboard the Shy Maid, hundreds of miles away from Meereen. Dragons are drawn to humans with dragonblood.

4. Tyrion won't expect the horn as the 'reason' he can ride as he does not have a horn.

5. Tyrion hates his entire family (the Lannisters) so much more by the end of DwD than he does in book 3. I have a whole section in my thread about it, he will be more than happy to realize he is only the twins half-sibling instead, and not Tywin's at all.

And I disagree that Dany will think nothing of another person riding one of her dragons. But since Barristan already told her about the possibility of A+J, she should be able to reason out fairly quickly that A+J did happen. No one has ever mentioned another paramour of Aerys', Joanna is the only one Dany has ever heard of, this idea will not seem so foreign as some claim.

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Well the reasons I think Tyrion will reason out who his father is, are these;

1. Barristan is nearby and knows about A+J having some sort of flirtation, he could easily tell Tyrion as he told Dany.

2. Tyrion clearly thinks that for the dragons to like you, you need dragon blood, which he was proven right about in the case of BBP. Tyrion has obviously read a book that says 'Dragons are only fond of people with the Blood of the Dragon.'

3. Drogon flew right over Tyrion when he was aboard the Shy Maid, hundreds of miles away from Meereen. Dragons are drawn to humans with dragonblood.

4. Tyrion won't expect the horn as the 'reason' he can ride as he does not have a horn.

5. Tyrion hates his entire family (the Lannisters) so much more by the end of DwD than he does in book 3. I have a whole section in my thread about it, he will be more than happy to realize he is only the twins half-sibling instead, and not Tywin's at all.

And I disagree that Dany will think nothing of another person riding one of her dragons. But since Barristan already told her about the possibility of A+J, she should be able to reason out fairly quickly that A+J did happen. No one has ever mentioned another paramour of Aerys', Joanna is the only one Dany has ever heard of, this idea will not seem so foreign as some claim.

1. Flirtation thankfully =/= sharing a secret lovechild. And I'm sure I'm not the only one happy that that's the case.

2. We've seen books from inside this universe claim that Elia and her children may have been killed by the mad king, all because political calculations always creep into histories. What better way to solidify your "right to rule" than to perpetuate the myth that you have super special genetics that no one else can even hope to match so they shouldn't even bother trying to steal your superweapon?

3. ...wasn't aegon on that same ship when that happened? Whether he's legit or a blackfyre he'd have dragonblood.

4. We'll have to see how the horn plays out.

5. And that's why his story is much more interesting as a true lannister rather than to justify Tywin's contempt and have tyrion secretly be a super special lovechild with magical strengths because of his blood. Just takes a fascinating struggle and waters it down cause obviously they didn't love you like you were one of the family, because you weren't, and you're a constant reminder of the part of their family that they lost in his birth.

Just playing devils advocate to some of these points. I'm not instensely either way on this one, but I do think Tyrion the true Lannister heir is more interesting than Tyrion the secret Dragonrider.

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1. Flirtation thankfully =/= sharing a secret lovechild. And I'm sure I'm not the only one happy that that's the case.

2. We've seen books from inside this universe claim that Elia and her children may have been killed by the mad king, all because political calculations always creep into histories. What better way to solidify your "right to rule" than to perpetuate the myth that you have super special genetics that no one else can even hope to match so they shouldn't even bother trying to steal your superweapon?

3. ...wasn't aegon on that same ship when that happened? Whether he's legit or a blackfyre he'd have dragonblood.

4. We'll have to see how the horn plays out.

5. And that's why his story is much more interesting as a true lannister rather than to justify Tywin's contempt and have tyrion secretly be a super special lovechild with magical strengths because of his blood. Just takes a fascinating struggle and waters it down cause obviously they didn't love you like you were one of the family, because you weren't, and you're a constant reminder of the part of their family that they lost in his birth.

Just playing devils advocate to some of these points. I'm not instensely either way on this one, but I do think Tyrion the true Lannister heir is more interesting than Tyrion the secret Dragonrider.

Pretty certain you did not read the post I was responding to, as your points have nothing to do with what we were discussing.

I was giving my reasons for Tyrion being able to reason out who his father is IF he is able to ride a dragon. Not sure what your responses have to do with that.

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Pretty certain you did not read the post I was responding to, as your points have nothing to do with what we were discussing.

I was giving my reasons for Tyrion being able to reason out who his father is IF he is able to ride a dragon. Not sure what your responses have to do with that.

Tyrion doesn't need to be able to reason anything. If Aerys is his dad AND he rides a dragon thanks to that, Ser Barristan will tell him (Barristan will probably keep it a secret unless he has good reason to reveal it; keeping the king's secrets is part of his job as a kingsguard, after all).

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Should (emphasize "should" here) Tyrion be able to ride a dragon of his own, will that mean that Dany knows instantly that Tyrion is the child of Aerys and Joanna? No, she doesn't have to know anything about that. Dany hasn't read lots of books about dragons, like Tyrion has. Dany has a very limited knowledge about such things, and might not even know, or have thought, about bloodlines necessary for riding a dragon.

I suspect that Dany will know this particular tidbit about dragon blood, because she is a proud Targaryen and aware of her heritage. And that Targaryen = dragons has been deeply ingrained in her. "I am the blood of the dragon", as she likes to say/think (though more in the show, still, it's in the books too IIRC, including her final ADWD chapter). The riding of dragons is so associated with Targaryens now, and the aura of demigod-like powers that the Targaryens have is also tied to their dragons. I think Dany would be one of the first to leap on the idea that Tyrion has Targaryen blood, if he does ride a dragon.

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Tyrion doesn't need to be able to reason anything. If Aerys is his dad AND he rides a dragon thanks to that, Ser Barristan will tell him (Barristan will probably keep it a secret unless he has good reason to reveal it; keeping the king's secrets is part of his job as a kingsguard, after all).

ok? Um that was one of my reasons, Number 1 actually.

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Well the reasons I think Tyrion will reason out who his father is, are these;

1. Barristan is nearby and knows about A+J having some sort of flirtation, he could easily tell Tyrion as he told Dany.

2. Tyrion clearly thinks that for the dragons to like you, you need dragon blood, which he was proven right about in the case of BBP. Tyrion has obviously read a book that says 'Dragons are only fond of people with the Blood of the Dragon.'

3. Drogon flew right over Tyrion when he was aboard the Shy Maid, hundreds of miles away from Meereen. Dragons are drawn to humans with dragonblood.

4. Tyrion won't expect the horn as the 'reason' he can ride as he does not have a horn.

5. Tyrion hates his entire family (the Lannisters) so much more by the end of DwD than he does in book 3. I have a whole section in my thread about it, he will be more than happy to realize he is only the twins half-sibling instead, and not Tywin's at all.

And I disagree that Dany will think nothing of another person riding one of her dragons. But since Barristan already told her about the possibility of A+J, she should be able to reason out fairly quickly that A+J did happen. No one has ever mentioned another paramour of Aerys', Joanna is the only one Dany has ever heard of, this idea will not seem so foreign as some claim.

1. No, Barristan doesn't know (or at least, hasn't shown us that he knows) about any affair between Joanna and Aerys. All that Barristan has shown to know, so far, is that he is aware that Aerys lusted for her, and behaved inappropriate during the bedding. There's no hint, in his thougts or speech, about an actual sexually active relationship, whether consentual or not.

2. This is basically what I also said, right? Either Tyrion knows it for certain, or, my personal favorite of the two, he highly suspects it (as there hasn't been a living dragon since 153AC, no one alive has been able to observe such a thing) to be true.

3. Ehm.. Are they truly drawn to those with dragonblood? Alyn Velaryon might disagree, as the dragon he tried to claim tried to make a roasted Alyn out of him. Alyn has Targaryen blood (through Corlys), yet the dragons were not "attracted" to him. Also, Drogon is bound to Dany, and dragons only accept one rider at a time.

And I can't remember Drogon ever flying over the Shy Maid?

4. Tyrion does not have the horn and thus canĀ“t expect that to be the reason? Yet Tyrion also doesn't know about Aerys and his behavior towards Joanna, yet that should suddenly click in his head? No. Until Tyrion is told about Aerys, such a thought train won't be logical. Until Tyrion learns about the horn, Tyrion can't use that as a logical explanation either. Fortunately, as seen in the sample chapters of Winds, the horn and Tyrion are getting closer and closer..

5. Tyrion hates Cersei, that seems clear. Tyrion hates Tywin too. And Jaime has definitly fallen from grace, in Tyrions eyes (but I doubt that the arc between the two brothers is over yet). But is having the character hate his family enough to simply make the character part of another family? What would the plot point be?

As to the closing paragraph.. Dany knows that Aerys had a crush and that he behaved inappropriately during Joanna's bedding.. She doesn't know about any actual sex between the two, so no, the thought doesn't have to appear as a first thought in her head. Dany, who will first need to return to Meereen, before ever being able to think about it, might sooner suspect the horn. After all, she believes she's the last of her line.

Joanna wasn't described to Dany as Aerys' paramour, in any case. And "your father was quite taken with a lady from Casterly Rock" does not equal "my father and that woman had sex, leading to the birth of this man".

I suspect that Dany will know this particular tidbit about dragon blood, because she is a proud Targaryen and aware of her heritage. And that Targaryen = dragons has been deeply ingrained in her. "I am the blood of the dragon", as she likes to say/think (though more in the show, still, it's in the books too IIRC, including her final ADWD chapter). The riding of dragons is so associated with Targaryens now, and the aura of demigod-like powers that the Targaryens have is also tied to their dragons. I think Dany would be one of the first to leap on the idea that Tyrion has Targaryen blood, if he does ride a dragon.

Yeah, Dany is proud. She also believes she's the last of her line. When someone else manages to claim her dragon, and she learns there's some magic horn involved, whether that thing actually worked or not, the horn most likely will be the first thing she suspects, not the bloodline of someone who is known to have been a trueborn Lannister.

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ok? Um that was one of my reasons, Number 1 actually.

Reasons 2 to 5 are redundant. GRRM has put Ser Barristan were he is for a reason, and it may very well be to tell Tyrion about his true origin. I expect GRRM to have already decided the most important plot points of the whole story before even starting to write it, and if Tyrion really is a secret Targ, that would be one of those main plot points.

If Tyrion is a secret Targ and Barristan doesn't know about it, Tyrion may well start to harbor doubts about his legitimacy or that of his ancestors, or he may think that he has inherited some dragon blood from a Plumm/Baratheon/Velaryon/Martell/Whatever great-grandfather, but he will never be sure, and I don't think GRRM will keep such an important plot point a secret from mainstream readers and only known to lore obsessed fans like us.

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Pretty certain you did not read the post I was responding to, as your points have nothing to do with what we were discussing.

I was giving my reasons for Tyrion being able to reason out who his father is IF he is able to ride a dragon. Not sure what your responses have to do with that.

My bad, was skimming on my phone during my half time cigarette.

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The theory that most jumped out at me as being "smashed to pieces" was the idea that Ned's notions of honor were not normal for House Stark but had been picked up from Jon Arryn. The actions of Cregan Stark in the "Hour of the Wolf" as described in the section on Aegon III put that one to bed for good and all. Clearly Ned's ideas about what honor means are solidly derived from centuries of Stark family tradition.


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