Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Elessar

Casually smashing a theory to pieces....

Recommended Posts

I think it is right that what is required is the "right drop" but the higher percentage Targ blood, wouldn't that increase the probability of getting the "right drop"?

It didn't help Viserys II.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it is right that what is required is the "right drop" but the higher percentage Targ blood, wouldn't that increase the probability of getting the "right drop"?

I think so. It would explain the incest and keeping the bloodline pure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It didn't help Viserys II.

I did not mean to suggest it would be a guarantee--just a better probability.

I think so. It would explain the incest and keeping the bloodline pure.

Yes, I listened to an interview of GRRM where he basically said that the purpose of the incest was to keep the bloodline pure "to better control the dragons." So that quote suggests that GRRM is confirming this theory--although admittedly he can be cagey and I hate to base any firm conclusions on an interpretation of an SSM--I think they tend to be more ambiguous than some people like to acknowledge.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes woiaf makes it very clear that in many places, like Lys, there are thousands of Valyrian descendants, whom all have purple eyes and silver/white/gold hair. But that the Targaryens were the only Dragonlord Valyrian family to survive the doom. Therefore Targaryen blood is the only blood left on Planetos with the ability to ride dragons.

If dragonseeds descended from Targaryen bastards can ride dragons, lysene descended from dragonrider bastards can too (Lys was basically a place were dragonrider nobles spent their holidays drinking and having sex).

I did not mean to suggest it would be a guarantee--just a better probability.

Yes, I listened to an interview of GRRM where he basically said that the purpose of the incest was to keep the bloodline pure "to better control the dragons." So that quote suggests that GRRM is confirming this theory--although admittedly he can be cagey and I hate to base any firm conclusions on an interpretation of an SSM--I think they tend to be more ambiguous than some people like to acknowledge.

There is the possibility that being a dragonrider is a "yes" or "not" thing, you are or you aren't, and there aren't dragonriders who are better than others because of having more dragonrider blood. Inbreeding would just raise the chances that the children are dragonriders, but if a guy with a drop of dragon blood wins the genetic lotery, he will be a dragonrider so good as any inbred Targaryen.

It could also happen that being a dragonrider isn't dependant on the percentage of Targaryen/dragonrider blood. It could be like a gene. You get it from a dragonrider parent, or not, 50 % chance of getting it (I'm not speaking about a real gene, but about something that is passed down the same way) and no middle ground between having it or not.

If being a dragonrider works like a gene, and dragonriders didn't intermarry with other dragonriders, you have a 50 % of getting it from a dragonrider parent.

But if both parents are dragonriders, you get a 75 % chance.

But if dad or mom were lucky and got dragonrider "genes" from both sides, they have a 100 % chance of passing them down,

So a person with a remote dragonrider ancestor would have as low chance of being a dragonrider himself/herself, but it would exist. Most Targaryens from old times would have dragonrider "genes" from both sides, and they practiced incest to make sure it remained that way.

And again: I'm not speaking of real genes, I'm speaking of a quality that is inherited the same way as genes do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is the possibility that being a dragonrider is a "yes" or "not" thing, you are or you aren't, and there aren't dragonriders who are better than others because of having more dragonrider blood. Inbreeding would just raise the chances that the children are dragonriders, but if a guy with a drop of dragon blood wins the genetic lotery, he will be a dragonrider so good as any inbred Targaryen.

OK--obviously I am still not being clear. Think of dragonriding as a gene for this purpose (not saying it is exactly the same--just an analogy). Every time someone who is not a Targ is entered into the lineage, someone who definitely does not have the dragonriding gene is introduced. So the chances that the child will or will not get the gene goes down. Again--not a perfect analogy, but basically the point. So yes, I agree, either you can bond with a dragon or you cannot. But the chances of getting the right "drop" that will allow bonding with a dragon is greater if more ancestry is Targ.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think TWOIAF as casually smashed to pieces the theory that Serra is Aegon's mother. Illyrio tells us this in ADWD-Chapter 5:



..."I grew so respectable that a cousin of the Prince of Pentos let me wed his maiden daughter, whilst whispers of a certain eunuch's talents crossed the narrow sea and reached the ears of a certain king. A very anxious king, who did not wholly trust his son, nor his wife, nor his Hand, a friend of his youth who had grown arrogant and overproud..."




Later in that same chapter Illyrio tells Tyrion:



"A maiden? I know the way of that." Illyrio thrust his right hand up his left sleeve and drew out a silver locket. Inside was a painted likeness of a woman with big blue eyes and pale golden hair streaked by silver. "Serra. I found her in a Lysene pillow house and brought her home to warm my bed, but in the end I wed her. Me, whose first wife had been a cousin of the Prince of Pentos. The palace gates were closed to me thereafter, but I did not care. The price was small enough for Serra."




In TWOIAF, we are told that Varys arrived in KL sometime between Steffon Baratheon's death and the tourney at Harrenhal. So this means Illyrio was married to his first wife sometime around 279 or 280 AC. So this is 20 to 21 years before the present. Giving the most generous timeline possible, this means Illyrio married his first, she died, Illyrio found Serra and Serra was pregnant with Aegon in about a three year span. This would have made Illyrio's first marriage incredibly short and he doesn't indicate that was the situation. I don't think the timeline allows for Serra to be Aegon's mother. If Illyrio is Aegon's father it is either with the Pentoshi princess or a concubine or mistress. Since I think the Pentoshi princess' family would notice if her child went missing, it would have to be the latter choices. Actually, I don't think Illyrio is Aegon's father, but there is still a possibility for that. Serra, however, is not possible as Aegon's mother, imo.


Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think TWOIAF as casually smashed to pieces the theory that Serra is Aegon's mother. Illyrio tells us this in ADWD-Chapter 5:

Later in that same chapter Illyrio tells Tyrion:

In TWOIAF, we are told that Varys arrived in KL sometime between Steffon Baratheon's death and the tourney at Harrenhal. So this means Illyrio was married to his first wife sometime around 279 or 280 AC. So this is 20 to 21 years before the present. Giving the most generous timeline possible, this means Illyrio married his first, she died, Illyrio found Serra and Serra was pregnant with Aegon in about a three year span. This would have made Illyrio's first marriage incredibly short and he doesn't indicate that was the situation. I don't think the timeline allows for Serra to be Aegon's mother. If Illyrio is Aegon's father it is either with the Pentoshi princess or a concubine or mistress. Since I think the Pentoshi princess' family would notice if her child went missing, it would have to be the latter choices. Actually, I don't think Illyrio is Aegon's father, but there is still a possibility for that. Serra, however, is not possible as Aegon's mother, imo.

Nice catch! It is still possible but less likely ... It would ruin the general concept that Varys went to Kings Landing and started ruiming things for the Taegaryens as part of a bigger plan. He vould still want to ruin things but the Aegon part only came up later, and probably not as a nephew of Varys.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think TWOIAF as casually smashed to pieces the theory that Serra is Aegon's mother. Illyrio tells us this in ADWD-Chapter 5:

Later in that same chapter Illyrio tells Tyrion:

In TWOIAF, we are told that Varys arrived in KL sometime between Steffon Baratheon's death and the tourney at Harrenhal. So this means Illyrio was married to his first wife sometime around 279 or 280 AC. So this is 20 to 21 years before the present. Giving the most generous timeline possible, this means Illyrio married his first, she died, Illyrio found Serra and Serra was pregnant with Aegon in about a three year span. This would have made Illyrio's first marriage incredibly short and he doesn't indicate that was the situation. I don't think the timeline allows for Serra to be Aegon's mother. If Illyrio is Aegon's father it is either with the Pentoshi princess or a concubine or mistress. Since I think the Pentoshi princess' family would notice if her child went missing, it would have to be the latter choices. Actually, I don't think Illyrio is Aegon's father, but there is still a possibility for that. Serra, however, is not possible as Aegon's mother, imo.

I can't see why Illyrio has to marry Serra by the time Varys came to KL. He might have married her a decade or two earlier.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I can't see why Illyrio has to marry Serra by the time Varys came to KL. He might have married her a decade or two earlier.

The reasoning is that we know Serra was Illyrio's second wife, and Dance shows that when Varys came to KL, Illyrio had just married wife #1. The world book tells us that Varys came to KL after the Defiance, which occured in 277 AC for half a year, and after the death of Steffon Baratheon (somewhere in 278 AC, presumably towards the end of the year).

For Illyrio to have his wife die (natural causes?) so soon after marrying her, and to wed the bedwarmer he found in Lys "in the end" within only a few years time, in order to have her birth a child old enough to pretend to be Rhaegars son, becomes less likely in such a timeframe. Not unlikely, but less likely.

But in any case, Illyrio and Serra were not married before Varys went to KL :) or so the text suggests

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The reasoning is that we know Serra was Illyrio's second wife, and Dance shows that when Varys came to KL, Illyrio had just married wife #1. The world book tells us that Varys came to KL after the Defiance, which occured in 277 AC for half a year, and after the death of Steffon Baratheon (somewhere in 278 AC, presumably towards the end of the year).

For Illyrio to have his wife die (natural causes?) so soon after marrying her, and to wed the bedwarmer he found in Lys "in the end" within only a few years time, in order to have her birth a child old enough to pretend to be Rhaegars son, becomes less likely in such a timeframe. Not unlikely, but less likely.

But in any case, Illyrio and Serra were not married before Varys went to KL :) or so the text suggests

What is the exact quote for that?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

See bent branch's post, slightly above on this page ;)

Ah, that is the one. I hope you see how Illyrio concluded his spech :)

"I do believe that you know the rest of this tale, is that not so?”

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Tattered Prince left Pentos in 262AC, he was long gone by the time Illyrio was wed.. ;)

Still his interest in Pentos is fierce as ever. He fought in Disputed Lands. He must be aware of what is going on in Free Cities, especially Pentos. Captains of sellsword companies seem to be knowledgeable about power structures in the Free Cities.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still his interest in Pentos is fierce as ever. He fought in Disputed Lands. He must be aware of what is going on in Free Cities, especially Pentos. Captains of sellsword companies seem to be knowledgeable about power structures in the Free Cities.

His interest in Pentos might never have gone away, but who says that he kept track of every marriage that occurred in Pentos, and when?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

His interest in Pentos might never have gone away, but who says that he kept track of every marriage that occurred in Pentos, and when?

Still, he is out best candidate for an independent source to verify Illyrio's claims (a dangerous liar).

In addition, I do not get the impression that "whilst" means simultaneously at that tale.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think TWOIAF as casually smashed to pieces the theory that Serra is Aegon's mother. Illyrio tells us this in ADWD-Chapter 5:

Later in that same chapter Illyrio tells Tyrion:

In TWOIAF, we are told that Varys arrived in KL sometime between Steffon Baratheon's death and the tourney at Harrenhal. So this means Illyrio was married to his first wife sometime around 279 or 280 AC. So this is 20 to 21 years before the present. Giving the most generous timeline possible, this means Illyrio married his first, she died, Illyrio found Serra and Serra was pregnant with Aegon in about a three year span. This would have made Illyrio's first marriage incredibly short and he doesn't indicate that was the situation. I don't think the timeline allows for Serra to be Aegon's mother. If Illyrio is Aegon's father it is either with the Pentoshi princess or a concubine or mistress. Since I think the Pentoshi princess' family would notice if her child went missing, it would have to be the latter choices. Actually, I don't think Illyrio is Aegon's father, but there is still a possibility for that. Serra, however, is not possible as Aegon's mother, imo.

Your conclusion doesn't really follow from your quotes. Illyrio is not speaking precisely, it seems to me; he says in one breath that his first wife was the Prince's daughter, in another that she was his cousin, indicating that his memory is likely somewhat faulty. And the way he talks about the timing, his first marriage and Varys' arrival in KL need not have happened at the exact same time, and it seems to me that a gap as large as several years between the two events isn't out of the question. Also, it's hardly unheard of for women to die giving birth to their first child, so his marriage to the Prince's kinswoman may indeed have been short.

Real Aegon was born in 282; Fake Aegon need not be the exact same age, he could be a couple years younger and still pass inspection once fully grown. So I don't think this theory has been "smashed to pieces" at all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Your conclusion doesn't really follow from your quotes. Illyrio is not speaking precisely, it seems to me; he says in one breath that his first wife was the Prince's daughter, in another that she was his cousin, indicating that his memory is likely somewhat faulty.

She probably was both. There have been more than a Prince of Pentos during Illyrio's lifetime (they tend be killed every so often), and all of them come from the local royalty. So Illyrio's wife probably was daughter to a Prince, and cousin to a later one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

×