Casually smashing a theory to pieces....

[Elessar]

Yeah that tiny taste of Summerhall wasn't nearly enough!!!

[Bael's Bastard]

Back to the OP. Has anyone identified which theory was casually disproved?

The theory that A+J=J&C is pretty much dead now but Tyrion still could be...I hope not but still.

I loved the Chapter about Aegon V...but am still upset about the lack of information about Summerhall!! Ugh...I need to know exactly what happened to our dear Dunk & Egg! But it did confirm that there 7 dragon eggs at Summerhall...I wonder if there is anything left of them.

Ran confirmed the theory he was referring to was A+J=C and J. While I don't believe the theory, or the Tyrion one for that matter, if his statement is based solely on the information in the book (rather than extra information he is aware of that didn't make it in), I didn't think the info in the World Book smashed the theory, though certainly didn't make it more likely.

[UnmaskedLurker]

Ran confirmed the theory he was referring to was A+J=C and J. While I don't believe the theory, or the Tyrion one for that matter, if his statement is based solely on the information in the book (rather than extra information he is aware of that didn't make it in), I didn't think the info in the World Book smashed the theory, though certainly didn't make it more likely.

I got the sense he does not have additional information. I think he thinks the text alone makes it pretty clear that Aerys and Joanna did not see each other at all between 263 and 272, with the twins born in 266. But he acknowledged that the text is not so explicit on the point that a small crack could be open for it to be true. But I think the text makes it much less likely.

Now A+J=T became even more likely, as Ran also admitted.

[Ser Cold Fingers]

I got the sense he does not have additional information. I think he thinks the text alone makes it pretty clear that Aerys and Joanna did not see each other at all between 263 and 272, with the twins born in 266. But he acknowledged that the text is not so explicit on the point that a small crack could be open for it to be true. But I think the text makes it much less likely.

Now A+J=T became even more likely, as Ran also admitted.

So even if A+J=T...it will remain forever a theory...right? I don't see how it could be proven one way or the other at this point...right? Tywin & Joanna are both dead. I don't want to ruin a story by a conveniently written letter from the past to surface or something else on this...because I think that will be the only way to prove R+L=J...if this is true.

But what do I know...

[Elessar]

If Tyrion was, how would we (or he) ever find out? If he becomes a dragon rider? I am still not convinced you need to be Targaryen to be a dragon rider (especially if dragons still exist in Asshai and are being ridden or controlled in any way) so that wouldn't be enough for me.

Moqorro's prophecy also makes me think he's not... but how would we ever know?

[Ser Cold Fingers]

If Tyrion was, how would we (or he) ever find out? If he becomes a dragon rider? I am still not convinced you need to be Targaryen to be a dragon rider (especially if dragons still exist in Asshai and are being ridden or controlled in any way) so that wouldn't be enough for me.

Moqorro's prophecy also makes me think he's not... but how would we ever know?

Exactly

[UnmaskedLurker]

Ser Cold Fingers and Elessar--Remember that this story is fiction. In fiction, not every single mystery is explained BUT the big major issues are explained and revealed to the readers in a way that is usually pretty clear. If A+J=T, it is so because it will become central to the endgame--with Tyrion as a head of the dragon. It will become known. GRRM already knows how it will become known. He has known since his wrote his outline of the plot about 20 years ago. Maybe Selmy (KG to Aerys) was the one that Aerys ordered to bring Joanna to his bedroom. Maybe Varys saw it happen. I really cannot predict exactly how GRRM will make it known--but if A+J=T, he will make it known somehow.

[Elessar]

This is fiction? Wow, man... thanks for letting me know. I was readying a ship to find the sunset sea...

[UnmaskedLurker]

This is fiction? Wow, man... thanks for letting me know. I was readying a ship to find the sunset sea...

Sorry for being condescending--I deserved that. I was merely trying to emphasize a point that there is absolutely no reason to doubt that GRRM will reveal A+J=T to the readers if that ends up being an accurate theory. I grow frustrated with people say, after lots of evidence for a theory piles up, that GRRM has no way to reveal it so it does not matter. I hear that on different theories over and over again, and it make me frustrated because fiction just really does not work that way. I am not bothered if people ask how it might be revealed--that is an interesting inquiry--but to assert that it cannot be revealed does not make sense to me.

[Ser Cold Fingers]

Fiction? Nah...you're pulling my leg.

If it is revealed (or any theory at this point)...I just pray that it will be presented in a way that doesn't diminish the story/theory. I have faith in GRRM that he will do so.

[Elessar]

I see what you're saying, that he would make the reveal work within the story, but aside from Varys (as you mentioned) I don't know who else could reveal it in a convincing way.

[Ser Cold Fingers]

Another thing that was not disproved by TWoIaF book...that Middle-Earth is not on the other side!

So my theory still holds water!!! The CotF are the white-trash cousins of the Elves!

[UnmaskedLurker]

I see what you're saying, that he would make the reveal work within the story, but aside from Varys (as you mentioned) I don't know who else could reveal it in a convincing way.

GRRM is so much more creative than I ever could be, I don't try to necessarily figure out every detail because that is a recipe for being disastrously wrong. What I try to do is follow his clues and thing of the overarching story elements he is creating. So some mysteries he has given us enough clues and others he has not. Something like who would be able to reveal AJT is not a mystery for which we have been given enough clues. I simply have faith that an author of his caliber will be able to figure something convincing out to make it work. While it is interesting to speculate on who might be able to reveal it, such speculation is likely to be wrong. But even if nothing comes to mind, unless GRRM has set up a situation where such a reveal would be virtually impossible (not the case here), he has it figured out.

[UnmaskedLurker]

Perhaps barritan Selmy Will?

Yes, he is one of my candidates (see post #207). He was also the source of the information to Dany that Aerys had a thing for Joanna and really got the AJT theories flying. It would not surprise me if he ends up telling Tyrion--after he bonds with a dragon--that Aerys ordered Selmy to bring Joanna to Aerys's bed during the tourney of 272, which was 9 months prior to the birth of Tyrion, and so he must be the son of Aerys given that he can bond with a dragon. But Varys is a possibility. And maybe it is done through a vision. Who knows? I just don't think this is a situation where GRRM has put himself in a box where a big reveal would be impossible or even that difficult.

[Ser Cold Fingers]

Yes, he is one of my candidates (see post #207). He was also the source of the information to Dany that Aerys had a thing for Joanna and really got the AJT theories flying. It would not surprise me if he ends up telling Tyrion--after he bonds with a dragon--that Aerys ordered Selmy to bring Joanna to Aerys's bed during the tourney of 272, which was 9 months prior to the birth of Tyrion, and so he must be the son of Aerys given that he can bond with a dragon. But Varys is a possibility. And maybe it is done through a vision. Who knows? I just don't think this is a situation where GRRM has put himself in a box where a big reveal would be impossible or even that difficult.

A+J=T

[Dofs]

Let's say you have twins who look a lot alike. One is a boy, one is a girl. You live in a culture that dresses young boys and girls alike, and doesn't cut a boy's hair while he's a child. The historical context is important here.

If Jaime and Cersei are carbon copies of their mother, it does not matter who their father was, as they got the looks from her.

Is there a picture of Joanna in the book???

ETA: for the record, people mistake young boys for girls and girls for boys all the time. When one of my sons was a baby one couple told me he was so beautiful they thought he was a girl.

Fraternal twins look alike as much as non-twin siblings look alike. So when someone who doesn't know the kids may really confuse them and even claim that a boy is a girl and vice versa, there is no way an actual parent who is raising them and knows them would confuse them - especially confuse a boy for a girl.

And yes, it does matter who their father was. The twins can't look like each other, even if they are carbon copies of their mother, and have different fathers. That's not how it works and that's is plainly impossible. A kid has half of his genes from his mother and half from his father. If the twins have halves from completely different gene pools, they will have a lot of differences between them.

[Relic]

It would be insane for Martin to make Tyrion Aerys's son. The foundation of Tyrion's personality is his conflict with Tywin; as someone put it elsewhere, now we're supposed to discover that Tywin was right all along, and that Tyrion is a bastard born of either rape or Joanna having an affair?

It would completely ruin so much of what makes Tyrion's story compelling, and I don't believe for a second that Martin is so bad of a writer that he doesn't see that.

I don't see how it "ruins" anything. In fact it helps explain Tywin's hatred for Tyrion. Doesn't change much for Tyrion views on Tywin either.

[rozemarijn]

I am not sure the dragonhorn does what Euron claims it does. I don't think it is that easy to bind a dragon. We will see--but the horn screams red herring to me. As to Dany's dragons--only Drogon has been bound to anyone--Dany. The other two still have not been bound to anyone. The dragons seek out Targ blood, I believe, because the original spell connects them to the Val Houses that participated in the ceremony--and the Targs are the only one of those Houses left with anyone alive. Unless there is a way to add to the blood line that can bind a dragon (and I am not sure there can be at this point), the dragons will only bond with Targs. I just don't think a simple horn can change that--we certainly saw nothing in any of the existing sources that suggest a horn can bind a dragon--and we saw how Targs bind to a dragon (to some extent) and no horn was involved.

I thought I saw the horn mentioned in the WOIF, but I can't seem to find it now. I'll look for it later.

The way I see it, Tyrion will be a dragon rider. I agree, especially after reading this book, the blood is necessary.

But I think there are two roads open: A+J or the horn. You may say the horn is a red herring, but A+J may be a red herring as well. There is no proof and very little textual evidence to point out which way it is going to be.

Personally I believe Gerion found the horn first and has claimed it, so when Victarion sounds it Tyrion will get a dragon. The magic works with blood and families, not with individuals.

So if you want Tyrion to have a dragon, A+J is not the only way, there still is the horn (and his uncle 'lost' in Valyria). I prefer this way.

[UnmaskedLurker]

I thought I saw the horn mentioned in the WOIF, but I can't seem to find it now. I'll look for it later.

The way I see it, Tyrion will be a dragon rider. I agree, especially after reading this book, the blood is necessary.

But I think there are two roads open: A+J or the horn. You may say the horn is a red herring, but A+J may be a red herring as well. There is no proof and very little textual evidence to point out which way it is going to be.

Personally I believe Gerion found the horn first and has claimed it, so when Victarion sounds it Tyrion will get a dragon. The magic works with blood and families, not with individuals.

So if you want Tyrion to have a dragon, A+J is not the only way, there still is the horn (and his uncle 'lost' in Valyria). I prefer this way.

I have never believed that the main reason that A+J=T is because it is needed for Tyrion to ride a dragon (although I think it probably is the only way Tyrion can ride a dragon). I am convinced of ATJ more because I believe Tyrion to be one of the three heads of the dragon. To be "of the dragon" he cannot be 100% "lion" as a Lannister. Having a Targ father may not make him a Targaryen (he would be Tyrion Hill) but it would make him "of the dragon" and allow him to be a candidate for head of the dragon.

As to which is the red herring--her is my theory on red herrings, especially GRRM's version of a red herring. If a character says something explicitly, it is probably a red herring. If there are only hints but no character figures it out before the "big reveal" then it probably is not a red herring. I will give you an example--TPTWP. We have two main candidates (in my view)--Jon or Dany. The evidence for Jon is more subtle (e.g., "promise me, Ned"). With Dany, we have Aemon explicitly theorizing that she is TPTWP. As soon as he does that, I conclude "red herring" and virtually eliminate Dany from the running to be TPTWP. The evidence for AJT is quite subtle--so subtle that until WoIaF, many called it crackpot. The horn is explicitly stated as a means to control a dragon. So if one of these is a red herring, it would be the horn. What is the point of AJT as a red herring? So that the 1-2% of readers that pick up on it will think the horn is a fake? But then--bam--it turns out the horn really works? That is not the way GRRM seems to be writing this story. No, it is the other way. The horn is tried--it fails. All hope seems lost in trying to control the dragons and then--bam--Tyrion does something accidental that bonds him to a dragon. And no one knows how that could be possible. And then AJT is revealed. Which seems more like the way GRRM is structuring the story and putting forth red herrings?

But the real point is that AJT is essential not because it is required for Tyrion to ride a dragon but because it is necessary for Tyrion to be one of the three heads of the dragon. And yes, GRRM said the third head is not "necessarily" a Targaryen, but Tyrion is not a Targ--he is a Hill. If the dragon has three heads--each of the three heads must have at least one Targ parent or the person is not a head of the dragon.

[rozemarijn]

As to which is the red herring--her is my theory on red herrings, especially GRRM's version of a red herring. If a character says something explicitly, it is probably a red herring. If there are only hints but no character figures it out before the "big reveal" then it probably is not a red herring. I will give you an example--TPTWP. We have two main candidates (in my view)--Jon or Dany. The evidence for Jon is more subtle (e.g., "promise me, Ned"). With Dany, we have Aemon explicitly theorizing that she is TPTWP. As soon as he does that, I conclude "red herring" and virtually eliminate Dany from the running to be TPTWP. The evidence for AJT is quite subtle--so subtle that until WoIaF, many called it crackpot. The horn is explicitly stated as a means to control a dragon. So if one of these is a red herring, it would be the horn. What is the point of AJT as a red herring? So that the 1-2% of readers that pick up on it will think the horn is a fake? But then--bam--it turns out the horn really works? That is not the way GRRM seems to be writing this story. No, it is the other way. The horn is tried--it fails. All hope seems lost in trying to control the dragons and then--bam--Tyrion does something accidental that bonds him to a dragon. And no one knows how that could be possible. And then AJT is revealed. Which seems more like the way GRRM is structuring the story and putting forth red herrings?

I consider the one problem with your red herrings theory that all te examples you give to prove it, are things that are not discussed in the books yet. We don't now who is Azor Ahai yet, we can only make educated guesses. But we may be wrong. So you can't state the horn would work because it would fit in a construction based upon other guesses. So if you have real proven examples, I'll be happy to consider.

Besides, you simplified what I said. My point is not the horn would work, my point is the horn is Gerions. And that way it actually fits into your red herring construction. The red herring is Victarion will have dragons bound to him, which is stated by a character. The 'truth' is the horn is owned already by Lannister blood, even before the house of the undying got it. For this theory, we have only subtle textual proof (Gerion sailing to Valyria, how the house of the undying got it, Moquorro and his explanation of 'claiming')

But the real point is that AJT is essential not because it is required for Tyrion to ride a dragon but because it is necessary for Tyrion to be one of the three heads of the dragon. And yes, GRRM said the third head is not "necessarily" a Targaryen, but Tyrion is not a Targ--he is a Hill. If the dragon has three heads--each of the three heads must have at least one Targ parent or the person is not a head of the dragon.

There we differ. In my opinion, GRRM said the third head did not need to be a Targ for a reason, aka the third head isn't a Targ.

The fact that he said the third head did not need to be a Targ proves the horn works, because his statements implies there is another way instead of blood.

Besides, you interpret his statement in names and consider he means a bastard or a secret targ is not a targ. That may be true, but whenever he works with magic it is all about blood, not names. So I think when he talks about dragons and Targs he is talking about blood, since it is in a magic context.