Bakker XXX: A Dark and Seminal Work

[Sci-2]

I doubt it's a Dune style breeding thing. I think the Inchies may have that with the mother ship. If anything I expect Bakker to reveal that women Dunyain are "better" than men Dunyain (for some definition of better that Bakker will use to justify his nonsexist message in the books).

Ah true, the ultimate leaders might have been women as they realized men were too genetically inferior to attain Enlightenment.

There's not really much reason for a forced breeding camp, though women will have to breed with multiple men for the eugenics program they had going on.

And wasn't this program only going on for a few thousand years (2000?) Is that enough time to really make a superhuman given all the potential false starts?

[Kalbear]

And wasn't this program only going on for a few thousand years (2000?) Is that enough time to really make a superhuman given all the potential false starts?

Not if you are assuming normal genetics, no. While you could likely produce some fairly interesting offspring in 2000 years (it only takes a few generations to breed completely docile foxes from wild foxes, for example) it's exceedingly unlikely to produce anything that is particularly nonhuman in behavior or pattern. Especially given such a small breeding pool to choose from combined with the very long gestational and breeding times. You get (charitably) about 120 generations in 2000 years, and most of the traits that they're selecting for don't mature until actual maturity, making the actual process significantly longer (most of the emotional and physiological desired traits Dunyain have are closely connected to sexual maturity).

You are likely to have very similar phenotypes after only a few generations, but realistically you just don't have the new stock needed to produce better offspring after, say, 10-20 generations.

[unJon]

Agree. I think we have to posit that heritability works differently in Earwa. Look at how different Kel is that he has trouble breeding with non Dunyain women at all and the most likely result is a three headed stillborn or whatever. It's like a nearly different species. Horses and donkeys kinda sorta (but not really).

New topic crackpot: Kelhus intentionally woke up the gods postTTT. Why? I dunno. But it explains why Big Moe never noticed them.

[unJon]

Pertinent snippet from Madness on TSA forum:

"Mithfanion posts by Calibander at Westeros and has registered here following Bakker's blog about my having read the Unmentionable (Bakker's been cited many times as suggesting that Mithfanion has the closest speculative vision to what happens in the series overall)."

I found the Scott quote here:

Good to hear from you Mith! The only way I can see this being ready for summer 2014 is if my publishers decide to split the thing. This is the impasse at the moment: the book is looking too big. There really is nothing more I can say until everything is sorted out. I do want you to know that I’ve taken many of the criticisms you’ve made of the previous books quite seriously in writing this… Although not identical to my vision of the series, yours has been close enough to alert me to a number of the ways I’ve strayed – enough to convince me to let the book write itself, rather than shoehorn it into anyone else’s schedule.

In fact, I might just decide to blame you personally for the reason why it’s taken me so long!

I find myself unable to really search Scott's blog's comment section to find out what Calibander has posted there, so am unable to provide more speculation. Calibander?

[lokisnow]

Agree. I think we have to posit that heritability works differently in Earwa. Look at how different Kel is that he has trouble breeding with non Dunyain women at all and the most likely result is a three headed stillborn or whatever. It's like a nearly different species. Horses and donkeys kinda sorta (but not really).

New topic crackpot: Kelhus intentionally woke up the gods postTTT. Why? I dunno. But it explains why Big Moe never noticed them.

My crackpot is that they thought their face reading training was successful but they were ignorant that their breeding program was selecting for stronger metaphysical soul to soul connections resulting in the ability to perform soul reading. So when esme or serwe are amazed at kellhus reading their souls they are right.

The whole face reading program is just an elaborate high level way for them to deceive themselves. They're ignorant of their own nature but had to come up with a reason they could figure out the the thoughts in the soul of another.

They think their face explanation is why but it is incorrect. Kellhus is ignorant about his own abilities and foolishly believes himself in trained command of them when he really doesn't understand them at all so great is his self deception.

[Sci-2]

My crackpot is that they thought their face reading training was successful but they were ignorant that their breeding program was selecting for stronger metaphysical soul to soul connections resulting in the ability to perform soul reading. So when esme or serwe are amazed at kellhus reading their souls they are right.

The whole face reading program is just an elaborate high level way for them to deceive themselves. They're ignorant of their own nature but had to come up with a reason they could figure out the the thoughts in the soul of another.

They think their face explanation is why but it is incorrect. Kellhus is ignorant about his own abilities and foolishly believes himself in trained command of them when he really doesn't understand them at all so great is his self deception.

Interestingly enough, there's a weird parallel here to the actual history of psychiatry and psychology and how it related to mesmerism/magnetism and telepathy.

Maybe Bakker was riffing off that?

[Callan S.]

So back on this giant super computer thing... So are the proponents of this theory basically saying that Earwa is the Matrix and the Few perceive the Onta much like Neo reading everything as lines of green 1's and 0's?

My own theory is that the human race is long extinct. All the entities on Earwa ARE 1's and 0's.

There are just a few of these entities who are obliquely aware of this and can, just peripherally, see their own nature. And with it, can make the machine planet change it's nanotech structures. For which, within the frame of the entities individual perception, the machine world will torture them forever. But that'd be like torturing dirt, right? Or would it?

Much like the film 'Her', which takes you as audience inside the whole issue, the books are a work of intricate genius, with genuinely touching character depiction (delivered with genuine care from the author) to draw one inside it, only to, at some point, suddenly see out from within it as something else entirely. Eh *cough*, at some point in the future someone else will describe it much better than that, with many paragraphs.

[Callan S.]

My crackpot is that they thought their face reading training was successful but they were ignorant that their breeding program was selecting for stronger metaphysical soul to soul connections resulting in the ability to perform soul reading. So when esme or serwe are amazed at kellhus reading their souls they are right.

The whole face reading program is just an elaborate high level way for them to deceive themselves. They're ignorant of their own nature but had to come up with a reason they could figure out the the thoughts in the soul of another.

They think their face explanation is why but it is incorrect. Kellhus is ignorant about his own abilities and foolishly believes himself in trained command of them when he really doesn't understand them at all so great is his self deception.

Does that mean he detects skin spies by a lack of soul rather than the lack of facial palpitations?

[lokisnow]

Does that mean he detects skin spies by a lack of soul rather than the lack of facial palpitations?

Could be. He did develop a skill at seeing facial muscles so the face reading training could well have accidentally prepared him to see skin spies.

Note a metaphysical connection would also explain how kellhus knows how to mimic inrau before achamian has thought about inrau or expressed inrau in his face. Kellhus attibutes a lot of his understanding of people's inner world's to tics of the face which is an absurd overreach of facial capacity to express such complex paragraphs of backstory, his eyes are deceiving him.

[Diziet]

Ah true, the ultimate leaders might have been women as they realized men were too genetically inferior to attain Enlightenment.

Yeah, that's what I thought. Especially since Ishual is an inversion of Earwa.

[Sci-2]

New topic crackpot: Kelhus intentionally woke up the gods postTTT. Why? I dunno. But it explains why Big Moe never noticed them.

Or perhaps in Fanim lands the God dreams clearly enough to weaken any influence the Hundred might have?

And Big Moe did end up being blinded early on, while Kellhus had to be Circumfixed before he could See.

[unJon]

Or perhaps in Fanim lands the God dreams clearly enough to weaken any influence the Hundred might have?

And Big Moe did end up being blinded early on, while Kellhus had to be Circumfixed before he could See.

yeah that's possible. I've never bought into the theory about the gods being localized to particular territories but the anarcane ground explanation does seem to support it. I think the blind but doesn't matter because he can still observe the rate that "piety" is answered. Also remember Moe has the third sight.

[Kalbear]

I don't think that anarcane ground makes it more likely specific gods are localized. It just means all gods aren't as strong there.

[unJon]

I don't think that anarcane ground makes it more likely specific gods are localized. It just means all gods aren't as strong there.

Yes but the reason all gods aren't strong there is given as the God dreaming most lucidly there. Assuming that explanation is true it plays into the idea that the Cish God dreaming better in Cish lands. :unsure:

As an aside the whole concept of God dreaming supports Moe's proposition that God sleeps.

Off topic: WTF is this: http://rsbakker.wordpress.com/stories/fan-fic/a-tale-of-swayal/

[Sci-2]

yeah that's possible. I've never bought into the theory about the gods being localized to particular territories but the anarcane ground explanation does seem to support it. I think the blind but doesn't matter because he can still observe the rate that "piety" is answered. Also remember Moe has the third sight.

Ah, good point about the Third Sight. I kinda think Big Moe would be weak in that regard?

[Darzin]

And wasn't this program only going on for a few thousand years (2000?) Is that enough time to really make a superhuman given all the potential false starts?

Regarding the breeding program, remember they don't have only normal genetics.There was some nonmen mixed in there as well.

[Sci-2]

Is there no second sight in the books? There's second sight in Pink Floyd's Nobody Home, but not in these books?

I assume first sight is regular vision, second sight is the way the Few see, and third sight is what the Cish do.

Regarding the breeding program, remember they don't have only normal genetics.There was some nonmen mixed in there as well.

True, but even then it's not clear how this would work, unless Nonmen blood has some inner teleology that comes to the fore as it becomes stronger [which assumes there's multiple original Dunyain with Nonmen blood]...or that being part Nonman means your seed or your womb rewrites human DNA to avoid the incest issue...or humans on Earwa are themselves fundamentally different from us.

[Possible that epigenetics plays a far greater role as well.]

Interesting to contrast this to the desperate undertaking of the Inchies which yielded six successful magi and a ton of corpses in the Well of Abortions.

[red snow]

2000 years. We've done quite a lot with dogs and livestock in that time.

The tricky thing is generation time though. If they breed at age 16 then that's 125 generations compared to 2000 generations in dogs. I'm sure if you're being very selective and use a bit of genetics eg Quantitative Trait mapping (it allows you to find genes that alter a specific trait you'd maybe miss simply by selecting the phenotype eg dad may be small but carries genes that when mixed with the right mum give you a taller child).

On the other hand you could look at the difference in Atheltes since the modern olympics began and see how quickly people have changed. Our planet has a much greater sample size to pick from though but if you include nutrition as part of the breeding program and the X-factor non-man genes 125 generations could achieve a lot.

It's also worth keeping in mind that the aggressive breeding program could mean the sample size becomes pretty big over 2000 years. I'm not great at maths but we could get a rough estimate

P = P₀e^RT

human growth rate is currently 1.68 so let's say that's the same for the Dunyain as they probably overbreed the successful, cancelling out the ones they get rid of

P₀ is the initial population and T = time (2000)

I don't have a scientific calculator at hand (and have forgotten how to use e^x but I'm sure someone here knows how to do that calculation and can remember the original number of people the Dunyain came from.

EDIT: Found a calculator that does it. I plugged in 100 starting population. growth rate of 0.012 (most recent human growth rate) and 2000 years. They had a population of 3 billion. So let's just say the Dunyain would have a large number to pick from.

Interestingly I halved it to take into account people die of things more often in medieval settings and you still get a figure of 15 million. The take home is they'd have plenty to pick from - although they'd have to hope for more mutations to occur spontaneously to keep things interesting from such a small number.

The human population went through a bottleneck 70.000 years ago where it's beleived there were only 70.000 of us. We still have a fair bit of variety but that's a much larger number than the Dunyain started with. It's also why I think the current human growth rate is a bit generous for the Dunyain as there'd be far more humans on earth right now!!!

It'd be great if people can give me some more solid numbers. Looking around the internet human growth rate was 0.1% for most of history which would result in far more manageable Dunyain numbers.

[Rhom]

2000 years. We've done quite a lot with dogs and livestock in that time.

The tricky thing is generation time though. If they breed at age 16 then that's 125 generations compared to 2000 generations in dogs. I'm sure if you're being very selective and use a bit of genetics eg Quantitative Trait mapping (it allows you to find genes that alter a specific trait you'd maybe miss simply by selecting the phenotype eg dad may be small but carries genes that when mixed with the right mum give you a taller child).

On the other hand you could look at the difference in Atheltes since the modern olympics began and see how quickly people have changed. Our planet has a much greater sample size to pick from though but if you include nutrition as part of the breeding program and the X-factor non-man genes 125 generations could achieve a lot.

It's also worth keeping in mind that the aggressive breeding program could mean the sample size becomes pretty big over 2000 years. I'm not great at maths but we could get a rough estimate

P = P₀e^RT

human growth rate is currently 1.68 so let's say that's the same for the Dunyain as they probably overbreed the successful, cancelling out the ones they get rid of

P₀ is the initial population and T = time (2000)

I don't have a scientific calculator at hand (and have forgotten how to use e^x but I'm sure someone here knows how to do that calculation and can remember the original number of people the Dunyain came from.

EDIT: Found a calculator that does it. I plugged in 100 starting population. growth rate of 0.012 (most recent human growth rate) and 2000 years. They had a population of 3 billion. So let's just say the Dunyain would have a large number to pick from.

Interestingly I halved it to take into account people die of things more often in medieval settings and you still get a figure of 15 million. The take home is they'd have plenty to pick from - although they'd have to hope for more mutations to occur spontaneously to keep things interesting from such a small number.

The human population went through a bottleneck 70.000 years ago where it's beleived there were only 70.000 of us. We still have a fair bit of variety but that's a much larger number than the Dunyain started with. It's also why I think the current human growth rate is a bit generous for the Dunyain as there'd be far more humans on earth right now!!!

It'd be great if people can give me some more solid numbers. Looking around the internet human growth rate was 0.1% for most of history which would result in far more manageable Dunyain numbers.

Head asplode.

[red snow]

Head asplode.

Yeah - this is how my mind works early on a saturday morning. Probably far better things I could be using it for!