Madness Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Off topic: WTF is this: http://rsbakker.wordpress.com/stories/fan-fic/a-tale-of-swayal/ Fan-fiction? Yeah - this is how my mind works early on a saturday morning. Probably far better things I could be using it for! You might enjoy participating in this thread, red snow: How many were the original Dunyain refugees? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diziet Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Bakker said that the population of Earwa at the start of the series was about 75 million. But just to be clear the calculation using the first growth rate you used is: 100*e^(0.012*2000) ? Because that yields over 25 billion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
unJon Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 The point of a breeding program isn't to grow the population. The point is that only a few of any one generation are allowed to breed. The overall size of the population would be driven by what the local environment could sustain (think Malthus). These equations are irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diziet Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 It is doubly irrelevant because Bakker most likely didn't sweat too much over how long it would actually take the Dunyain to produce Kellhus assuming real world genetics. He needed him after 2000 years, so he's there. eta: and then there are other problems like why do they keep surnames and how did Kellhus look like his ancestor from 2000 years ago (to the Nonman). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castel Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Might as well ask how the Lannisters and Starks survived for thousands of years unchanged with the same general features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anatúrinbor Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 He also said that the Ishual chapter is such a reveal that he asked Bakker not to give us the second half of it as a preview.What?!How dare you meddle in these affairs? :POff topic: WTF is this: http://rsbakker.wordpress.com/stories/fan-fic/a-tale-of-swayal/'Haubonus Lissa'?Yep, 'WTF' is the correct reaction to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diziet Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Am I correct in remembering that Serwa is the only named Swayali in the books? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 The problem isn't the population size - it's the population genetics. Sure, you can have 3 billion, but you still only have that 100 set of genes to play with. With dogs we have constantly introduced, interbred and reintroduced genetics into the mix to produce different things. And phenotypically dogs are very diverse - but at the same time they are still dogs. We haven't created some kind of uber dog. The smartest dog now is still something fairly close to the smartest dog 2000 years ago. Another way to say it is this: assume that given 100 people there is some way to maximize their intelligence of the offspring. Within only a few generations you are going to hit that maximum. You don't get more and more smart the more you breed, not without either mutation or bringing in different stock. This is animal husbandry 101. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diziet Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 They have genetic mutations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castel Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Perhaps they took captives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 They have genetic mutations.no guarantee that they're beneficial or even useful to the traits that they want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darzin Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 The Nonmen genes gives Bakker a fantasy out no matter what, so I'm not going to sweat it to much. Some other possibilities the breeding program was started long before the Dunyain to Ishual. Or somehow the gods/Consult/Seswatha/Tekne interfered in some manner to speed the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Perhaps they took captives?maybe - but unless they were taking super smart captives it doesn't help. Think of trying to breed German shepherds and then taking a bunch of mutts to increase your diversity. You'll get more genes but it won't help the shepherdness. Now, if they instead took nonmen captives - maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shryke Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Maybe it's just the nonman blood in them. I mean, we know that nonman/human breeding is possible but very very difficult. And we know the Anasurimbor line has nonman blood in it. Maybe they've spent the last 2k years isolating out the nonman blood. Maybe they are all Anasurimbors. And maybe that's where the problems with having kids with normal women comes from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red snow Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Bakker said that the population of Earwa at the start of the series was about 75 million. But just to be clear the calculation using the first growth rate you used is: 100*e^(0.012*2000) ? Because that yields over 25 billion. You have to use the percentage as a decimal. The point of a breeding program isn't to grow the population. The point is that only a few of any one generation are allowed to breed. The overall size of the population would be driven by what the local environment could sustain (think Malthus). These equations are irrelevant. It's still useful to have a lot to pick from. If you exterminate too often you will lose genes that are useful but not instantly recognisable as useful, You also run the risk of fixing an allele that may prove a setback further down the breeding program. Put it this way, when I'm mutating flies, as part of my research, I make sure that I start with as many as is practical to increase my chances of getting the end result. It's also good to have some spares in case something kills them. There's nothing worse than having the single fly with the mutation you want and it dies before passing its genes on. You also make damn sure you have quite a few of them in reserve as you don't want to start from scratch again. With dogs we have constantly introduced, interbred and reintroduced genetics into the mix to produce different things. And phenotypically dogs are very diverse - but at the same time they are still dogs. We haven't created some kind of uber dog. The smartest dog now is still something fairly close to the smartest dog 2000 years ago. But you're playing with a species where smartness isn't its selling point. In terms of all the other functional attributes we've improved upon the basic design for given functions. I'd imagine you'd do the same when working with intelligence - although teaching is also vital to that process as well. Another way to say it is this: assume that given 100 people there is some way to maximize their intelligence of the offspring. Within only a few generations you are going to hit that maximum. You don't get more and more smart the more you breed, not without either mutation or bringing in different stock. This is animal husbandry 101. I get your point but this is where QTL mapping comes in. Intelligence is definitely a quantitative trait meaning there are easily 100s of genes playing a role and a hell of a lot of combinations in terms of how they interplay best. It's how we keep getting better livestock even though it's pretty much exhausted. They are still improving but at much slower rates (and it's arguable whether they need to be any better now).As an aside here's an interesting piece on vegetable breeding. Obviously plants can have multiple copies of chromosomes so they play by slightly different rules. But it is cool to see the massive changes that can occur. Ultimately this is all just a thought exercise I indulged in. It's Baller's world and rules and to be honest I don't mind if he ever considered these elements. He's got Tekne and magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diziet Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 You have to use the percentage as a decimal. That's using it as a decimal, since you said the "growth rate of 0.012 (most recent human growth rate)" which gives over 25 billion. The historic rate of 0.001 gives a significantly smaller number though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sci-2 Posted October 18, 2014 Author Share Posted October 18, 2014 Maybe it's just the nonman blood in them. I mean, we know that nonman/human breeding is possible but very very difficult. And we know the Anasurimbor line has nonman blood in it. Maybe they've spent the last 2k years isolating out the nonman blood. Maybe they are all Anasurimbors. And maybe that's where the problems with having kids with normal women comes from. Pretty much this. And Nonman [blood] likely has some kind of inherent teleology that massively reduces the combinatorial problems. Perhaps they rid themselves of the truly bad lines within a generation or two. And if Nonmen really don't stop growing, it's also possible there's a spiritual epigenetics which only further shortens the time necessary to acquire Dunyain abilities/mentality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diziet Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Maybe they are all Anasurimbors. Not all Dunyain are Anasurimbor, at least not in name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anatúrinbor Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 The Nonmen genes gives Bakker a fantasy out no matter what, so I'm not going to sweat it to much.Yeah, there is not even a need for Nonmen blood if Bakker wanted a "fantasy out." (although I don't discount it.) Breeding (and genetics probably) do not work the same way in Earwa, for instance the saying "the strong seed forces the womb" [to become pregnant when it normally wouldn't] is literally true in-world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castel Posted October 18, 2014 Share Posted October 18, 2014 Yeah, there is not even a need for Nonmen blood if Bakker wanted a "fantasy out." (although I don't discount it.) Breeding (and genetics probably) do not work the same way in Earwa, for instance the saying "the strong seed forces the womb" [to become pregnant when it normally wouldn't] is literally true in-world. Wait, when did this happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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