The Doom of Valyria- Any Chance?

[Yakman]

The Doom was almost certainly connected with the fire wyrms who lived in the mountains around Valyria. They might have gotten out of hand and blew up the 14 volcanoes that surrounded the Freehold.

The seasons seem to be a much larger issue.

Scientifically, it might have something to do with axial wobble or something like that. A year seems to be the same amount of time as on Earth--about 365 days--so it doesn't have to do with planetary orbit. It seems to me that these longer seasons are fairly unpredictable. Some 'Summers' are longer, some shorter, although it appears that long summers are followed by long winters, and vice-versa.

What someone on the boards posited is that the planet enters into brief 'ice ages' that are described as Winters. There are still seasonal changes within Winters and Summers and Falls and Springs, but they are not as dramatic as the described seasons. It's a theory.

The problem with a scientific explanation is that the Citadel has been around for so long, and the maesters are extremely talented. if Winter was predictable, there'd be no need for White Ravens--the next season would be known far in advance and the local maester would have an almanac telling when the next season would be coming.

Personally, I'm agnostic about GRRM ever explaining the Doom to us. Valyria is kind of cool being a big unknown, and what happened being unknown to the reader, although characters seem to have a much better grasp on what happened.

[WinterBreeze]

Any chance that we will get any further information on the Doom of Valyria?

Well through Arya/Dany, most likely.

GRRM also said that ASoIaF will have and 'end' and that he would like to write books on the past and future of Westeros. IIRC

So if he does where better then the Doom?

[Yakman]

GRRM also said that ASoIaF will have and 'end' and that he would like to write books on the past and future of Westeros. IIRC

So if he does where better then the Doom?

The First Men? The Long Winter? The Invasion of the Rhoynar? The Dance of the Dragons? The War of the NinePenny Kings?

Westeros is far more interesting (imeho) than Esteros (or whatever it's called) and if GRRM decides to write more in the series after it's over, I'd like so read more about the West than the East. Let's keep that mysterious. The Shadow beyond Asshai is cooler if you know nothing about it.

[Blue Roses]

2006 I started this thread.........no really 2006...where did the years go?

I'm beginning to wonder who will get there first: George publishing A Dance with Dragons or me getting to a 1000 posts. Two tortoises crawling to that finishing posts....................

[Mandurang]

What someone on the boards posited is that the planet enters into brief 'ice ages' that are described as Winters. There are still seasonal changes within Winters and Summers and Falls and Springs, but they are not as dramatic as the described seasons. It's a theory.

I believe they have it correctly. I can't find the quotes right now, but I am convinced this is what actually goes on. The seasonal variations within a Season are much less pronounced, but they do happen.

Scientifically, it might have something to do with axial wobble or something like that. A year seems to be the same amount of time as on Earth--about 365 days--so it doesn't have to do with planetary orbit. It seems to me that these longer seasons are fairly unpredictable. Some 'Summers' are longer, some shorter, although it appears that long summers are followed by long winters, and vice-versa.

The problem with a scientific explanation is that the Citadel has been around for so long, and the maesters are extremely talented. if Winter was predictable, there'd be no need for White Ravens--the next season would be known far in advance and the local maester would have an almanac telling when the next season would be coming.

Actually, GRRM has said that the reason for the seasons being as they are is magical in nature, not scientific, so try as they might, the maesters will not come up with anything satisfying - to them.

[Master of Coin]

Magic is simply the application of a science beyond the understanding of the observer. I think it may be possible to posit causes for this bizarre recurring climatic shift that brings on a mini ice-age at frequent (within the lives of humans) intervals. This could only arise with an orbital plane sharply divergent from the ecliptic AND a very pronounced wobble to the inclination of the planetary axis. It's certainly NOT earth! (unless it's the earth of a future in which some fantastically improbable near-collision with a very LARGE interstellar object alters earth's orbital parameters)

We know quite a bit about earth's orbital parameters and the relationship of those to recurrent glacial and interglacial epochs. The important parameters are the inclination of the axis... the variation in that inclination. (axial "wobble")... the precession of the equinoxes... the ellipticity of the orbit around the sun... and the variability in that ellipticity. The distribution of land mass and ocean in the northern and southern hemispheres is also important. The relation of all these parameters to the earth's climatic experience was not understood until the 1920s when the Serbian scientist Milutin Milankovich laboriously calculated (by hand!) the variation in insolation (incoming solar energy). It took him several years to do this and now we recognize the "Milankovich Cycles" as being dominant over the earth's long term climate.

(by the way... according to those cycles, we are several thousand years past the warm interglacial peak and are now slowly sliding into the next ice-age. "Global warming" is a very temporary reversal due to our own puny effects on a very large system)

So what I'm saying is that the Maesters of Westeros... with all due respect to their abilities... are basically stuck in a medieval situation. They do NOT have the astronomical knowledge, the technical expertise, nor the calculative mathematical tools to discover the orbital parameters that is determining the climatic patterns of Westeros, and thus be in a position to predict the future effects of those patterns. Heck... we've got Cray supercomputers and we're not all that good at doing it for ourselves!

But I think it's a soluble problem... probably a master's thesis level problem in orbital dynamics.

[Senta Signora]

I believe GRRM said the explanation for the seasons was magical and not explained by the science of our universe.

[Master of Coin]

I don't believe in magic. I do think it's probably possible to postulate a set of orbital conditions such that the climatic conditions described by GRRM could exist, though it may not be a stable configuration. I think magic is just what people call incomprehensible situations when they're too busy (or lazy) to do the math.

[Ran]

That's okay, MoC. Magic doesn't believe in you, either.

When Melisandre gives birth to a shadow, what's the scientific explanation for that?

[Baramos]

If Martin says its magical, I'd say go with that as the basis for any explanation of the seasons. It seems clear that The Others are if not the cause of the cold, directly related to whatever is the direct cause, something we may not have been shown yet. I mean, you have frost demons as the apparently least worst thing coming out of the north, since there are also giant spiders. If there is a fire god like R'hllor who is to say there isn't an ice god competing with him for domination? There seem to be greater powers at work using mortals as their instruments, with humans as the instruments of R'hllor, The Others as the instruments of a possible ice deity or demonic force.

I'd like to see something about the Doom of Valyria, but it does seem to be something volcanic, perhaps caused by something magical. The evidence offered seems to be consistent with geological forces.

[Dalfiatach]

Just rereading AFFC and this jumped out at me - possibly related to the Doom. The Kindly Man is explaining the origins of the Faceless Men to Arya

"...That very night he chose the most wretched of the slaves, the one who prayed most earnestly for release, and freed him from his bondage. The first gift had been given."

Arya drew back from him. "He killed the slave!" That did not sound right. "He should have killed the masters!"

"He would bring the gift to them as well...but that is a tale for another day, one best shared with no-one."

He cocked his head. "And who are you, child?"

"No one"

"A lie"

So the Faceless Men destroyed the slavemasters of Old Valyria.....in the Doom?

[Baramos]

It might be a bit of a stretch to assume that they were the same event, they could have killed the slavemasters at a different point in time than the Doom of Valyria occurred which they might have had nothing to do with.

[darrylzero]

It might be a bit of a stretch to assume that they were the same event, they could have killed the slavemasters at a different point in time than the Doom of Valyria occurred which they might have had nothing to do with.

A stretch maybe, but a pretty intriguing one. The quote is certainly evocative, and the idea resonates with me. I'll be watching for future clues closely.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

It might be a bit of a stretch to assume that they were the same event, they could have killed the slavemasters at a different point in time than the Doom of Valyria occurred which they might have had nothing to do with.

What else would prompt the Faceless Men to keep the story restricted to the highest echelons of their organization, though? I could see why the Faceless Men would want to keep quiet their role in the Doom because it might put them on somebody's radar as a magical organization of immense power, or because it might reveal something of the Faceless Men mission that they're not open about. But why would the Faceless Men cover up the fact that they've killed a few Valyrian nobles a thousand years ago?

[Baramos]

They probably don't tell anybody anything about what they did or are going to do unless they're an acolyte, maybe.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

They probably don't tell anybody anything about what they did or are going to do unless they're an acolyte, maybe.

Maybe not. But this isn't just part of a general ban of secrecy; Arya's already inside, and the KOM has no problem instructing her in the order's history and basic techniques. If the KOM is willing to train her to be a Faceless Man but isn't willing to tell her this story at this time, it's clearly not just the murder of a few slaveholders from centuries ago.

[Lord of Autumn's End]

Any chance that we will get any further information on the Doom of Valyria?

Perhaps if you are running with the idea of a maester's notebook we could have a couple of maps, one before the Doom and one after with the maester's notes on what was suppose to have happened, the hearsay and the myths surrounding the smoking seas? Perhaps some fragments copied from older texts giving tantalising clues to the role of dragons, Valyrian magic (and subsequent decline) and the collapse of the Freehold would be very nice as well.

Depending on what the cause of the Doom and what its effects were, we might be seeing some information on it later in the books, as part of the Dany or Sam plotlines.

The Doom would be better off left as this mysterious event. We don't really need to know everything about the world, do we?

I too would prefer that most of Westeros' history remain only briefly explained, in order to preserve some of the mystery about the world. The Doom though, probably wouldn't be all that spoilerish unless its got something to do with Dany and her Dragons later on.

The Children of the Forest are definitely one thing that I hope isn't going to be examined in too much detail. Unfortunately, Bran will probably get a good education on them from the three-eyed crow.

The First Men? The Long Winter? The Invasion of the Rhoynar? The Dance of the Dragons? The War of the NinePenny Kings?

Westeros is far more interesting (imeho) than Esteros (or whatever it's called) and if GRRM decides to write more in the series after it's over, I'd like so read more about the West than the East. Let's keep that mysterious. The Shadow beyond Asshai is cooler if you know nothing about it.

Seconded. Before you can become greatly interested in a character, you need to understand how their culture works, and non-western style cultures in Fantasy generally come across to me as bizarre, no offence meant.

Magic is simply the application of a science beyond the understanding of the observer.

No, its not. Magic is a fictional aspect of reality that can be manipulated to perform various results usually not possible in real life. You're going to give yourself a headache if you want scientific explanations for everything that happens in the Songverse.

I don't believe in magic. I do think it's probably possible to postulate a set of orbital conditions such that the climatic conditions described by GRRM could exist, though it may not be a stable configuration. I think magic is just what people call incomprehensible situations when they're too busy (or lazy) to do the math.

Or maybe because, you know, it might not be possible as GRRM describes it without the existence of magic. Or, alternatively, maybe because its not really relevant from a narrative standpoint and so people just don't care.

[Porcupine Tree]

The Doom would be better off left as this mysterious event. We don't really need to know everything about the world, do we?

Maybe its me but I would rather see the actual story than more plodding off into something that has nothing to do with the plot. Unless it has something to do with the plot in which case I will happily read it.

I will happily read whatever he writes. As long as he gets down to writing it.

Damn it, I want to know EVERYTHING about this world!! I'm fascinated about the geographical implications of Martinworld; volcanic eruptions, mini Ice Ages and corresponding falls and rises in sea levels, the shattering of the Arm, why the Milkwater still flows even though it should be locked in perpetual Ice, the Shadow of Asshai, why people can still follow a 'polestar' if the planetary elliptic orbit explains the erratic climate!

Much though I like fantasy with it's magic, I prefer to have reasonable explanations for percieved phenomena. And it somehow seems more exiting to debate here about a fantasy world, than the doom and gloom of climate change in our own real world...

[Elcarim]

I have to agree. I want to know about the Others, and what the Shadow is... Is it the same as the Others, only... maybe fire based? The Others, are they a magical construct of some greater evil, ie. some ancient ice dragon or lich?

Will we ever see the Children of the Forest? They're said to still be around and alive, and if so you would figure the Others would want to off them.

[Rodgex]

I have to agree. I want to know about the Others, and what the Shadow is... Is it the same as the Others, only... maybe fire based? The Others, are they a magical construct of some greater evil, ie. some ancient ice dragon or lich?

Will we ever see the Children of the Forest? They're said to still be around and alive, and if so you would figure the Others would want to off them.

It's possible that as more of the land beyond the wall is explored we will see the Children of the Forest, they could come into it to help save the Night's Watch defend against the Others.

As for the Shadow, no one really knows what it is... Which is why it would be really good for GRRM to write a short story giving more details of that region... One can hope....