[TWOIAF Spoilers] R+L=J without spoiler tags

[Lord Varys]

Come on, read the history. Viserys banished Daemon for deflowering Rhaenyra (and threatened to kill him should he return), and later he did more or less the same when Daemon married Laena without his leave.

All Aerys and his cronies needed was a pretext. The polygamy would have been distasteful in everybody's eyes, even those of Rhaegar's more powerful friends. And Dorne would not have risen for polygamous Rhaegar. Doran Martell is cautious. Especially not since Aerys would have soon had Elia and her children in his custody. Remember, even in that scenario, Rhaegar and Lyanna are also disappeared while Aerys and his cronies destroy him in his absence.

No Stark girl will ever become the second wife or the mistress of a king/prince. That should summarize the outlook of the Starks on that topic. By abducting/marrying Lyanna Rhaegar made House Stark his mortal enemy.

[Ser Cold Fingers]

If, like I suggested, their marriage was political (they must have fallen in love at one point, or Rhaegar wouldn't die with her name on his lips) and the reason she escaped with him was not to have a conquest with a married, older prince but because she supported his political cause.

Would he still have whispered 'Lyanna' as he died...assuming that is the name he whispered...if this was just a political move?

[Anath]

My scenario regarding this is:

Imagine Brandon had not raced to KL and threatened Rhaegar's life. Imagine Aerys had not considered this a threat against himself.

What would Aerys have done upon learning what Rhaegar did? Remember, all he and his cronies were apparently waiting for was a pretext to get rid of Rhaegar. Rhaegar was away, and thus all Aerys would need do is publicly declare that his eldest son stands accused of treason. The Starks and Baratheons would have stood with Aerys in that.

About sums it up my view of the matter. If the Starks were so desperate for a royal connection, they would have grasped at the chance after Harrenhall. Instead, Lyanna's brothers went all angry and Rickard didn't try to change anything about her situation, aka she stayed betrothed to Robert.

What makes me hesitate is the fact that Aerys would accuse Rhaegar of treason, yes. But would he stop here? His clique suspected Elia for no better reason than wanting to have a home of her own. Aerys would no doubt see Lyanna as guilty as Rhaegar and the Starks wouldn't be thrilled with that. Of course, it's possible that his sycophants would dissuade him from taking action against her. But I don't really believe they would have succeeded.

Basically, Rhaegar placed them between the rock and the hard place.

Anyway, that's the Starks alone. The rest of the lords would hardly give a damn about the troubles of a girl who didn't know to be a lady, courted trouble, and set a bad precedent for their own offspring - imagine that everyone decided that they would marry for love because hey, look, it worked for Lyanna Stark.

[Toos]

My scenario regarding this is:

Imagine Brandon had not raced to KL and threatened Rhaegar's life. Imagine Aerys had not considered this a threat against himself.

What would Aerys have done upon learning what Rhaegar did? Remember, all he and his cronies were apparently waiting for was a pretext to get rid of Rhaegar. Rhaegar was away, and thus all Aerys would need do is publicly declare that his eldest son stands accused of treason. The Starks and Baratheons would have stood with Aerys in that.

It's very difficult question. Aerys could do as Egg. Either give up Lyanna and return her to Starks(and still marry her to Robert if he would wish) or you are no longer heir and prince, make Viserys or Aegon his new heir, give Starks and Baratheons titles, lower taxes for them, etc. and hope it would be enough.

Certainly Starks, Baratheons and possibly Martells have to be appeased. Martells can see this as threat to Elia's children and history of Targs would provide enough support for their worry - Aenys' children vs Maegor, Dance, Blackfyre. So there have to be guarantee that Aegon is still first heir.

Starks have to got something too. Rickard's grandchildren could rule Stormlands but if Lyanna stay as Rhaegar's wife then her children would be prince/princess but nothing more. Her sons would be in line of succesion after Aegon and there isn't guarantee that Aegon would marry Lyanna's daughter(he can marry Rhaenys like Jaehaerys II married his sister). Plus it's insult, we know how Brandon reacted to her crowning in HH.

And what to do with Baratheons? They were most loyal Great House to Targs. Steffon was close friend of Aerys and died with his wife when he tried find wife for Rhaegar. Now Rhaegar insult Steffon's son. Aerys can't offer his daughter as Egg because he doesn't have any and simliar match from Great House is only Cersei. And Aerys can't order Cersei to marry Robert.

This pretty big task for any king and for Aerys with his madness it's almost impossible. I think even with best possible solution Rhaegar's reputation would tarnished(and lords can be hesitant support him with his plans) and Iron Throne would end weaker than before incident.

[PrettyPig]

And for much of the time he is mad in the Rhaegel sense - a nice guy, whose mad ideas matter not since he forgets them soon enough. Did anyone catch the reference to Emperor Nero?

Nice catch. Have you ever looked at the detailed similarities between Aerys and Nero? From the early and unexpected ascension to the throne, to the affairs with servants, the unsatisfactory marriage with his (step) sister, the affair with the wife of his trusted friend and advisor....on and on. Even a shipwreck that claimed the life of someone in the crown's inner circle! Not to mention Nero's reign ending as a result of the Great Pisonian Conspiracy, the juicy details of which remarkably parallel many of the characters and goings-on in Westeros. It's pretty fascinating stuff.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

So just off-hand after reading. I really love Rhaegar a lot, I liked him before, but was always slightly influenced by all the people who hate him so much for 'starting' Robert's Rebellion. But no longer :) Seems like it was an inch away from being 'Rhaegar's Rebellion' instead (the Shadow). Also Aerys is the cause for Rhaegars loss on the trident. He is sitting in his cave from KL sending messages to mess with Lewyns head right before the battle, no telling what kind of discourse he caused or doubt he sowed with all his paranoia......

Would love to see The tourney on HBO or anywhere, can you imagine Aerys the way he was described? Laughing, crying, too afraid to eat near Jaime, what a loon!!

Anyway just love Rhaegar at this point.

Also I found Roberts reaction to Rhaegar crowning Lyanna funny "he just gave her her due". Yet Yandel says "she was of no account, wild and whatever". Obviously that is not true if these 2 guys were after her. My guess is that she was a tiny brunette with a perfect face, plus she was interesting and not a boring little stuck up girl like Sansa in GOT. much more like Arya but drop dead gorgeous.

[Lord Varys]

If it had come to arms, Aerys' faction would have won. Supporting the son over the father is a ridiculous political concept, it would attack the very core of the feudal society, and many lords would not have followed Rhaegar's call due to his polygamy (a covert Great Council is one thing, an armed rebellion against the father something else!). Not to mention that Rhaegar would not have had an opportunity to raise an army of his own.

Rhaegar would have lost because no one would have backed him, whereas Aerys clearly would have been able to rally some lords to his side.

[BearQueen87]

If it had come to arms, Aerys' faction would have won. Supporting the son over the father is a ridiculous political concept, it would attack the very core of the feudal society, and many lords would not have followed Rhaegar's call due to his polygamy (a covert Great Council is one thing, an armed rebellion against the father something else!). Not to mention that Rhaegar would not have had an opportunity to raise an army of his own.

Rhaegar would have lost because no one would have backed him, whereas Aerys clearly would have been able to rally some lords to his side.

All of this might be true. But it could also be that Rhaegar isn't thinking this way. That he foresaw (not prophetically) an alternative solution. Or that he had reason to believe he could win. So the politically realities you're pointing to might not match what Rhaegar believed/thought/conceived. It sounds as if he was pretty politically savvy, so it's possible he saw things from a different angle.

:dunno:

[sj4iy]

Come on, read the history. Viserys banished Daemon for deflowering Rhaenyra (and threatened to kill him should he return), and later he did more or less the same when Daemon married Laena without his leave.

Read where Jaehaerys ran off with his sister, married her in secret and consummated the marriage, forcing his father to accept the marriage. Read where Maegor wanted to take a second wife, was refused, but his mother performed a Valyrian ritual anyway and forced everyone to accept it.

Point is: better to ask forgiveness than ask permission. Rhaegar knew that there wasn't anything ANYONE could do about it once he was king.

All Aerys and his cronies needed was a pretext. The polygamy would have been distasteful in everybody's eyes, even those of Rhaegar's more powerful friends. And Dorne would not have risen for polygamous Rhaegar. Doran Martell is cautious. Especially not since Aerys would have soon had Elia and her children in his custody. Remember, even in that scenario, Rhaegar and Lyanna are also disappeared while Aerys and his cronies destroy him in his absence.

...yet Aerys still didn't disinherit his oldest son even after suspecting him of trying to dethrone him, even after Rhaegar ran off with Lyanna Stark and even after he had to send Hightower to force him to come back to KL to fight in a war his actions help start. After ALL of that, one would think that Aerys would name Viserys his heir- yet he didn't. Not until after Rhaegar was dead. If Aerys didn't do that, then your scenario is even less likely.

No Stark girl will ever become the second wife or the mistress of a king/prince. That should summarize the outlook of the Starks on that topic. By abducting/marrying Lyanna Rhaegar made House Stark his mortal enemy.

...you base this on what, actually? There's nothing anywhere stating that 'no Stark female shall ever become the second wife of the future king'.

And for being such 'mortal enemies', Ned seems to think very well of Rhaegar. He also pleads with Robert to spare Dany, even resigning over it. Robb, Jon and Bran all dream of being great warriors like their Targaryen heroes. For such 'mortal enemies', the Starks don't seem to hold many grudges against the Targaryens, now do they?

[Anath]

Rhaegar would have lost because no one would have backed him, whereas Aerys clearly would have been able to rally some lords to his side.

Indeed. Actually, given the sheer size of Aerys' madness, I am even more surprised how Rhaegar could just turn his back to everything and disappear with the very girl who he earlier made overtures to, this aggravating his father's paranoia further. Aerys was clearly more unhinged than previously thought and the excuse that filial love made Rhaegar blind to his old man's flaws doesn't fly.

[Ser Cold Fingers]

I think we all should be open at the idea of Jon being an accident...

...just saying...

The Seed is Strong...

[sj4iy]

I don't think there's any possibility of Jon being an accident. He may or may not be legitimate, but the evidence is too strong that he was planned.

[UnmaskedLurker]

All of this might be true. But it could also be that Rhaegar isn't thinking this way. That he foresaw (not prophetically) an alternative solution. Or that he had reason to believe he could win. So the politically realities you're pointing to might not match what Rhaegar believed/thought/conceived. It sounds as if he was pretty politically savvy, so it's possible he saw things from a different angle.

:dunno:

Yes, the more interesting question for purposes of analyzing the story is to figure out what Rhaegar believed--not whether his judgment was correct. We will never know whether his judgment was correct because events intervened--making that judgment irrelevant--and I doubt GRRM will ever clarify what would have happened in the Aerys/Rhaegar struggle if RR never happened. But the one piece of information we have that is fairly reliable is that Rhaegar told Jaime that things would change after Rhaegar returned from the Trident. To me, that suggests that Rhaegar believed he had a way to accomplish his political goals. Who knows what method he was considering. Maybe he thought he could get his father declared incompetent and be named as his regent--not that I am 100% serious with that suggestion, but I am trying to make a larger point. While we may not know exactly what plan Rhaegar had to "change things" after the war, we know Rhaegar thought he had a plan and thought the plan would work. I am not sure it matter that much (at least to me) whether that plan actually would have worked. Knowing that he had a plan, however, helps to inform theories regarding what he was doing by running off and hiding with Lyanna and getting her pregnant. Now that is a question that is interesting to me and likely will be answered eventually in the series--making it a mystery that I am interested in trying to figure out.

[Toos]

1. Read where Jaehaerys ran off with his sister, married her in secret and consummated the marriage, forcing his father to accept the marriage. Read where Maegor wanted to take a second wife, was refused, but his mother performed a Valyrian ritual anyway and forced everyone to accept it.

Point is: better to ask forgiveness than ask permission. Rhaegar knew that there wasn't anything ANYONE could do about it once he was king.

2. And for being such 'mortal enemies', Ned seems to think very well of Rhaegar. He also pleads with Robert to spare Dany, even resigning over it. Robb, Jon and Bran all dream of being great warriors like their Targaryen heroes. For such 'mortal enemies', the Starks don't seem to hold many grudges against the Targaryens, now do they?

1. We know there was rebellion and duel because Duncan married Jeyne. Egg won but still had to give Lyonel one of his daughter. There was probably something similar to appease Tully, Tyrells and Redwynes.

2. Ned though that Rhaegar didn't visit brothels, he isn't bitter or angry about Rhaegar but he didn't think about Rhaegar as good guy either. Ned had weakness for children - Dany, Joffrey, Tommen, etc., he didn't think that they deserve death for something their parents did.

[Lord Varys]

On Aegon V:

Egg could not risk to lose Jaehaerys and an heir, too. Duncan had already abdicated, he would have been a walking joke if he had forcefully separated Jaehaerys and Shaera.

On Maegor:

Aenys could have had his head for that, too. That he did not take it does not mean anything.

And we don't really know yet whether Rhaegar was Aerys' heir the whole. Perhaps he disinherited him, and only reinstated him after he had been founded and returned to KL? We don't know that yet.

After how Cregan Stark dealt with the murderers of Aegon II after the Dance, the idea that any Stark can even contemplate that one of his women makes herself a whore as 'concubine' or 'second wife' is a very huge stretch in my opinion. Not to mention the reaction of Torrhen's marriage upon this forced marriage between their sister and Ronnel Arryn.

And Ned only thinks highly of Rhaegar after his death. When he knows that the man is the father of his nephew. Most certainly not during the Rebellion.

The idea that 'Rhaegar had a plan' does not make much sense to me.

[it's not that I want this to be the case, I really don't see it. Nothing convinces me that he could have had a plan that could have had any success. Especially not since there were apparently made no attempts to dissolve the betrothal between Robert and Lyanna after Harrenhal.]

[BearQueen87]

2. Ned though that Rhaegar didn't visit brothels, he isn't bitter or angry about Rhaegar but he didn't think about Rhaegar as good guy either. Ned had weakness for children - Dany, Joffrey, Tommen, etc., he didn't think that they deserve death for something their parents did.

It's not just that Ned doesn't think Rheagar visited brothels--we really have no idea if that is even true. It's that when Ned compares the honor of Rhaegar (man who "stole" his sister and raped her to death; or alternatively the man who ran away with this sister and held up in the TOJ, shunning the world) to the honor of Robert (his best friend and someone to whom he is as close as a brother) it's Rhaegar Ned comes down in favor of.

[Anath]

2. Ned though that Rhaegar didn't visit brothels, he isn't bitter or angry about Rhaegar but he didn't think about Rhaegar as good guy either. Ned had weakness for children - Dany, Joffrey, Tommen, etc., he didn't think that they deserve death for something their parents did.

Ned also thinks that should the Lannisters create troubles, Robert will smash them as he did Rhaegar. Smashing the Lannisters would be a good thing, so by extension, the fact that Robert smashed Rhaegar was also one. Plus, honest Ned says that Robert avenged Lyanna by killing Rhaegar, instead of simply saying, "You killed him".

Not saying that Ned hated his guts but making him Rhaegar number one fan simply because he didn't think Rhaegar visited brothels is really stretching it.

[UnmaskedLurker]

The idea that 'Rhaegar had a plan' does not make much sense to me.

[it's not that I want this to be the case, I really don't see it. Nothing convinces me that he could have had a plan that could have had any success. Especially not since there were apparently made no attempts to dissolve the betrothal between Robert and Lyanna after Harrenhal.]

What do you think Rhaegar meant when he told Jaime that things would change when he got back from the Trident after the war? It may not be a plan that you can envision working--but that is irrelevant. The question is whether it was a plan that Rhaegar thought would work. So it you don't think Rhaegar had such a plan, I will repeat my question again, what else did he mean by his statement to Jaime?

[Lord Varys]

But that would have been after the war. After he had won the war, a war his father had begun in his madness. That's not the case prior to the war - the Great Council idea did not work. It could have worked after the war, but that's a changed situation.

And even that plan sounds somewhat fishy. Elia and her children were Aerys' hostages, no? What could Rhaegar have done upon his return from the Trident?

[BearQueen87]

But that would have been after the war. After he had won the war, a war his father had begun in his madness. That's not the case prior to the war - the Great Council idea did not work. It could have worked after the war, but that's a changed situation.

And even that plan sounds somewhat fishy. Elia and her children were Aerys' hostages, no? What could Rhaegar have done upon his return from the Trident?

But the full quote from Rhaegar to Jaime: "When this battle is done, I mean to call a council. Changes will be made. I meant to do it long ago but....Well it does no good to speak of roads not taken. We shall talk when we return"

So there was a plan--I don't know what--but then there's a very pregnant pause (the ellipses) in which, IMO, Rhaegar is weighing how much to tell Jaime.