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[TWOIAF Spoilers] R+L=J without spoiler tags v.2


Ygrain

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Not I'm taking credit for the motivation for known events that weren't previously known. Was it talked about in any of the other 5 books that Rheagar was speculated to have single handedly mastermined the events at HH? Selmy's statement proves he was up to something at HH but not that it was 'his' party so to speak. The quote makes me think at first at least and just on his word that Rheagar was going to use HH to his benefit. I before the book was even out said that Rheagar wasn't just going to use the event for his benefit but that he actually orchastrated the whole thing as an answer to the Starks and their southern ambitions. With the book coming out confirms what I knew all the time that it was Rheagar that was mastermining the event. (That's the part I'm talking about being right about, the motivation behind said events.) Rheagar saw the marriages as a threat, knew that most likely the lords were going to use his crazy father as a pretext to either remove him(Aerys) or the entire dynasty and replace them with Robert. This opinion has been met with skeptics and rebuffs and thought that I'm reading to much into lady dustin and her line about Rickard having Southron Ambitions even thought it's written right there for the attention detailed reader to see. I've remarked that the marriages in of themselves should have been a red flag to the throne that all was not right in the state of Denmark.


I've speculated that it was Rheagar that got Jamie Lannister named to the King's guard as a way of getting rid of Tywin and binding his cause to Rheagar's cause. This was met with where's the proof and what makes you think that . Yet when reading this new World book, it put into perspective that Aerys was looking for away to remove his hand from his position. Whether the account that he was fearful of his life and speculated that Tywin was going to murder him, well that's a bit much. But I've had to ask myself how does Cersei Lannister know about Jamie possibly being named to the KG when his own father had no idea that that particular piece of news was going to happen. Who would benefit from getting Jamie in the Red Keep, but also would drive Tywin the kings strong right hand his protector far from his side? Why Rheagar Targaryen as he can play the hatred of both men against each other and keep his hands clean. The way that Rheagar was written and what fans of the series that I saw were making this man that by all accounts was a smart, well educated, studious man whom by stealing Lyanna acted so out of character and out of motivation that it had to give me pause. Because with what most fans thought of him and his motivations just didn't jive with me and what was being written about the character. So I had to look at what might have been motivating Rheagar to act as he did. So when I get a semi complete look at both family trees, and Lyanna's bloodlines I get another understanding and it just gels with the picture in my head of what might have been Rheagar's intentions and motivations for his actions. Yet when I would and have defended him with logical arguements, its alway met with where is that in the text or where are you getting that from. So to see that my rational for defending both Lyanna and Rheagar is justified in the fact that i got their modivations right. So once again I'm not tying to make it seem like I was right about known events. IT' the motivations and actions behind what they are doing that I'm saying I was right about. Sorry for the confusion and the rambling.




While you may agree with me bout the politcal and bloodlines stuff you are in the minority.


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You're hardly the one and only who pointed out that Rhaegar was not a stupid emo or that there were political implications in his actions he was very much aware of and/or used them for his benefit.


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I think what J.Star is getting at is that what you've been asserting (and thinking you were alone in) you were most definitely not alone in. I think of the people who frequent RLJ to a large extent believed all of that and said so. I know I've gone several rounds with people over Rhaegar's character and motivations and his intelligence, being more than just a mopey prince.


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I think what J.Star is getting at is that what you've been asserting (and thinking you were alone in) you were most definitely not alone in. I think of the people who frequent RLJ to a large extent believed all of that and said so. I know I've gone several rounds with people over Rhaegar's character and motivations and his intelligence, being more than just a mopey prince.

I think some of the more specific stuff is fine. I just thought it was odd that someone would claim credit for knowing that something wasn't right with the tourney at HH, and that it was a grand council, etc., since that's a part of the canon.

Perhaps by now he should have grown used to such things. The Red Keep had its secrets too. Even Rhaegar. The Prince of Dragonstone had never trusted him as he had trusted Arthur Dayne. Harrenhal was proof of that. The year of the false spring.

The memory was still bitter. Old Lord Whent had announced the tourney shortly after a visit from his brother, Ser Oswell Whent of the Kingsguard. With Varys whispering in his ear, King Aerys became convinced that his son was conspiring to depose him, that Whent’s tourney was but a ploy to give Rhaegar a pretext for meeting with as many great lords as could be brought together. Aerys had not set foot outside the Red Keep since Duskendale, yet suddenly he announced that he would accompany Prince Rhaegar to Harrenhal, and everything had gone awry from there.

- ADwD, The Kingbreaker (Ser Barristan)
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To understand the events of Harrenhal, one needs to break down the who, when, where, why, what.

The easiest to answer would be the year of the false spring the year of 281 a.c.

The next is where, Harrenhal.

What/why: to celebrate that "Spring" had come and welcome a new brother to the Kinguard.

Who: Arranged by house Whent and Rhaegar Targayen

Who was on the guestlist(known list from Meera Reed's story to Bran:SOS):

Under Harren's roof he ate and drank either the wolves, and many of their sworn swords besides, Barrowtown(House Dustin, Lord Williem Dustin) men and Moose( House Hornwood, Halys Hornwood), Bears(Jeor Mormont, and Mermen(House Manderly, Wa. The dragon prince(Rhaegar) sang a song so sad it made the wolf maid sniffle, but when her pup brother teased her for crying she poured wine over his head. A black brother spoke, asking the knights to join the Night's Watch. The Storm lord(Robert) drank don the knight of skull and kisses(Ser Richard Lonmouth, Stormland bannerman, yet was squire and knighted by Rhaegar Targaryen, who became his squire probably at the word of Steffron Baratheon, later to turn spy for Rheagar) in a wine cup war(Robert whom is known to say things in his cups that he would later deny sober (Jamie Lannister). The crannogman saw a maid with laughing purple eyes dance with a white sword(Ser Selmy Barristan)lord of griffins(Jon Connington), a red viper( Oberyn Martel and lastly with the quiet world but other after the wild wolf spoke to her on behalf of a brother too shy to leave his bench.

The whole event at Harrenhal was political theater on Rheagar's part. Starting with getting his enemies at court (Stautron whom isn't really his enemy and Merryweather was more than likely Rheagar's choice for hand as well because of his simple nature while Rheagar plotted he didn't have to worry about Aerys completely ruining the realm) to force Aery's to attend the Tourney. As the book states it wasn't until the Realm saw their monarch were they able to realize that Aerys needed to be removed. They knew he was cruel but only with enemies and many might have thought that the whole crazy talk was because of Tywin trying to usurper power is bad mouthing the king or that its political propaganda. The more I think about Rheagar and his character along with conformation that he was politically masterminding the events before and after Harrenhal has made me really think that Rheagar is in the class of Littlefinger when it comes to political savvyness. The fact that there were some in the realm that actually thought that he crowned Lyanna Stark as an act of Passion and not political manuvoring is pure genius on his part and its a shame that we will never really get to see Rheagar in action except through other's POV or maybe Bran. Whats also intresting is that Rheagar thoughout most of this mess was able to keep his reputation intact. That for the most part many think that he was the tragic fallen hero really speaks to how careful he was with his reputaion and his actions leading up to him taking Lyanna Stark. That people still remember him fondly or think he would have made a great king speak in of itself to what type of person Rheagar really was and that he like Littlefinger is able to keep his hands clean!

1)By having the master of laws want to place a ban Tourney's and its Pycell whom makes mention that this would cause even more hatred. Nor could he just let the possible rebel's meet. Was Rheagar's way of pulling the strings behind the scene while forcing the kings hand to have to attend the said tourney to stop the plotting. The true genius of the Tourney is that with all of the confusion Rheagar and his supporters can't be watched at all times allowing them to plot in peace without arousing attention. Anybody who read harry potter knows its easier to plot in a crowded place than private where you can be overheard. How much you wanna bet that after the crowning of Lyanna Stark, her brothers eventually got Rheagar before HH's Hearttree and they talked about his plots and reasons for crowing Lyanna like he did ned said that no man can lie before a heart tree I'm even willing to bet it might have even been Rheagar's idea to talk before the tree as he might have known about the tradition while also showing deferrece to the Northen customs. Makes him look good in front of the family and this also allows them to plot insecution from those that might miss use the info.

Also given the tensions between Rhea and father is the perfect time for rebellious lords to try and topple the Targ regime and place a third party candidate in the running for king if things turn to war. Think RL situation Henry Tudor whom had no right to the throne of England. Enter those lords of the Vale, Trident, West, North and Redwynes via their ships that are welcomed anywhere in the realm and their movement would not be noted especially if the merchant ships are refitted into warships! Really puts things into perpective considering why Rheagar choose Lyanna Stark over Cersei Lannister. Remember Rheagar would have met Rickard Stark when he was a child and given that he was very mature for his age I'm sure he took Rickard's measure along with taking stock of what Aemon would have written bout the Starks in general. I'm of the mind that Rheagar was truly a man with a plan and he would have taken stock of his enemies, allies, potietial for making both. With is love of history and reading I'm sure he learned everything he could before acting. Some of his actions suggest that Rheagar was a student of history especially that of the Targ reigns taking note of what worked and what did not.

a)Why a side by side comparison?

Easy it will allow the realm to see the men that they would be either fighting for or overthrowing. So if it comes down to a Grand Council to remove Aerys on the grounds on insanity, its not a decision based on hear say or rumors he's unstable. The realm knows about the events of Duskendale. They know that the king killed an entire family except for one male of that line. That the Hand Tywin Lannister let the king sit in captivity under the terms that if he stormed the gates they would kill the king for 6 months. Now I would like to point out that it was in Tywin's best interest for the King at the time to live as the terms of Cersei's and Rhaegar's marriage hadn't been settled. If the King is killed and the Prince who was at that time was at least 16 or 17 would be able to not only rule in his own name but also be able to choose his own bride. Rhaegar could not only remove Tywin from power but also refuse to marry Cersei all in one swoop. After the events of Duskendale the kings mind as been unsettled to say to the least. Which would explain why he didn't raze the place and let Rhaegar ascend to the t throne. However we find out this is not the case and Tywin was will to risk the king being killed and naming Rheagar as the heir to the throne. So at this time maybe Tywin t hought he could control the young prince or thought he would go along with his advice and wed Cersei. However I think that Tywin's willingness to let the king diw showed the Prince that he was not to be trusted and he was just a stepping stone in Tywin's climb in power. Once they had a child they no longer need Rheagar and could rule through the child and both the prince and king realized this and independently worked to have Tywin removed from office.

b)Then there is the other candidate Robert where's my next drink because last night was such thirsty work Baratheon. Lord for at least 2 years before the events of Harrenhal(I mean that he's no longer constrained by a regency he can rule in his own right) yet he's still hanging in the Vale. One of the few things that we know he did with is status is secure a marriage pact with Lyanna Stark. He's 4 in line for the throne should misfortune or war were to strike. Handsome, winsome personality, charismatic, definitely a charmer and his a ladies man. The type of man that other men would follow makes for a nice figurehead. With the real power being his foster father Jon Arryn. As Jon and Robert are blood at least distantly thru their shared Targaryen heritage, whom better for Robert to make his hand if only Tywin could be removed.

c)Then there is the Dragon Prince Rhaegar Targaryen. Smart, able, a warrior. No signs of instability or the taint. No sister in sight nor any close cousins if was free to wed again a grand prize for any high lords daughter. Not to mention that he's sensitive. Yes he's got a wife but he doesn't have an heir, his wife is said to be weak and sickly. He does have a daughter but she could be used as a marriage piece. There is a the brother Viserys but he's 6 and could also be used to seal an alliance. Aegon isn't a factor as he wasn't born he wasn't conceived until after the events of Harrenhal.

Rhaegar has his hands full he's got to deal with a Mad father/ruler. A large coalition of Lord Paramounts gathering together forming marriage alliances. His wife is sickly and weak. The birth of Rheanys nearly killed her. She spent six months after the birth recuperating. So on the one hand he needs heirs but on the other hand I don't think that he wanted to kill his wife to get those heirs. Better to have her either set aside or wed another woman to get the desired heirs that he needs to complete to dragon heads. It's nothing against Elia it's just that I don't think he would want to overthrow his father only to leave the realm in the hands of Rheanys. This has the makings of another Dance as Rheanys would be his heir but Viserys would be the son of a king and see it as his right to rule as he's the next male in line or if Viserys is dead and he as a son then the son with the pretensions of a crown. So I say no once again better to have Elia set aside. She very well could become a septa and it wouldn't interfere with Rheanys and her inheritance. Aegon IV's wife wanted to enter the faith after she had given him an heir he denied her but at least there is a precedence.

So there are the three candidates for the throne of Westeros.

Now on the surface the Tourney looks innocent enough. It's purpose is to be joyful because spring has come, winter is done.... The location Harrenhal is perfect as it's centrally located, close enough to King's Landing that the King should feel comfortable enough to come. Large enough to accommodate such a large host. The Whent's are on good terms with the royal family as Oswell Whent is a member of the Kinguard. It shows off the wealth and prestige of house Whent and the favor that they curry with the King and the royal family. That it's an honor that the royal family would attend such an event, that they would have Jamie Lannister join the Kinguard at their home. Is all a sham!!!

2)Now let's look even deeper, Oswell Whent is a trusted member of the Kinguard but his loyalty its appears was to the Dragon Prince and not the Dragon King. It was Oswell and Arthur that Rhaegar original took with him to kidnap/pick-up Lyanna Stark. (b)Minisa Whent is/was married to Hosteen Tully. So all of the Hosteen's brood are related to the Whent's by blood.(keep this in mind while I continue with the analysis.)

Let's look at a tactical look at Harrenhal for a second. As I've pointed out it's centrally located allowing an army to deploy anywhere in the realm and if one had the ships to deployed anywhere with ease. It sit in the rear of King Landing any army that attacks the Capital has to deal with Harrenhal or have it as an ally or fear having themselves taken in the rear. As Tywin Lannister proved to Stannis during the Battle of the Blackwater. It's large enough that it can house a sizable host, it's lands are broad and rich enough that it should be able to host a large army for some time.

Now my hypotithes is that during that visit that Ser Barristan talks about in Dance that Whent took is when he talked about the marriages that were being arranged in the realm. That Lysa was to be wed to Jamie Lannister, Catelyn Tully was to wed Brandon Stark. While Robert Baratheon has proposed a match between himself and Lyanna Stark. While Hosteen is proposing a match between his brother Bryrden to Beth Redwyne. Now before I continue with this I would first like to take a look at the tactical advantage of having Riverrun.

Riverrun has to the north the Tumblestone, to the south the Red Folk and to the east the Trident. It's western wall is to the land. When properly garrisoned it could withstand a siege of 2 years and a garrison of 200 is considered large. It's can raise it's western wall to make it's self an island. Because it sit right at the mouth of the Trident and then splits into the Tumblestone that runs all the way into the West, and could allow an army to by pass the Gold Tooth Completely. While that access to the Red Folk would allow another army to swing around Deep Den and give an army access to the southern region of the West or allow an army to take the Gold Tooth from the rear and sack the castle. Yet I digress I'll get back that the part.

Out of the two castles that I've mentioned gives an army total access to Westeros. Complete mobility, swift action for ground troops, or if one had the (long)ships, one could move anywhere with speed. Yet it looks like they may have be on opposite sides of this war. Now the need for the Redwyne ships starting to make sense?

3)Now let's look at what these marriages could have meant for the realm it things turn to war.

Tywin and the gold of Casterly Rock can provide information on streght of the treasury, while being able to counter act that said wealth with wealth of the west. Deploy troops from Crakenhal and Silverhill from the north of Highgarden to bottle them in the castle. When they call for help have your ships come up from the rear to take their supporters an awares. This is going to leave Highgarden to deal with its own problems and too far away from the Capital to be of much use.

Hosteen can provide Riverrun which is a strategic castle that is neutrally located within the realm. It can act as a barrier to the entrance to the West as well as a buffer for troops moving from the west. Having control of the Twins allows Rickards army to move south. The twins is nicely positioned that it can help link up arms from Seaguard from the west, the north and any arms coming from such castles from the Vales as Strong Song. As Robb did they can leave a heavy garrison their to cut off any retreat by the enemy that way or block the entrance to the neck if the Northern Armies have to retreat.

Rickard and the North can provide the extra military strength. Well sealing himself to the alliance with marriage between the new king and Lyanna Stark. He gets to scratch that southron ambition itch and gets his daughter a queen with her heirs on the throne.

While the marriage into the Redwyne gives this alliance access to ships. Not just any ships merchant ships. These ships can go anywhere in the realm without raising suspicion because their suppose to travel to sell that famous Redwyne wine. Not to mention they have contacts all over the world. Dispatching part of their fleet to gather sell swords. OR they could be used to create a bottle neck between the Redwyne Straights and Oldtown. From there sack the shields. To finalize the assault without bloodshed come to terms with the Florents about Highgarden and their superior claim. That gives you a strong ally at your back and that can cut off a retreat by Highgarden down the Mander.

Then there is Storm's End and it's troops, they could be used in one of two ways. One they could be used to bottle Dorne in Dorne. Keeping them active in the Dornish marshes restricting their movements as there's the choke point created by the Redwyne fleet. Nor do they have the naval strength to launch troops to KL. Especially if the Vale gets involved and uses Maidenpoole as a launch place and closes the gullet of the Blackwater Bay (as in the Princess and the Queen with the Sea Snake's fleet.) That's still leaving the Capital very naked and there's no help in sight as all of the crowns allies are dealing with rebels. OR the Stormland troops can be used to creep through the Kingswood forest and then strike at KL.

4) Rheagar(in around bout way with keeping his hands clean) got his father to name Jamie Lannister to the Kinguard. Aerys was already looking for a way to remove Tywin from office. By naming Jamie its now Tywin's decision to leave to office of hand. By he still has an eye and ear at court through Pycelle and that' why I think that it was to Tywin that Rheagar turned to when he needed funds to host the Tourney. Rheagar being the smart politician he is would know why spend your own money when you can spend someone else. Nor could he use his own funds because such things would be watched which is why none of Rheagar's enemies could find the proof that he was backing the Tourney as he was using Tywin's funds. The fact that Rheagar that engineered Jamie's appointment is a forgone conclution in my mind given that it was Cersei that convinced him(with Queen Rhaella's blessing of course), Arthur Dayne took Jamie under his wing after Aerys refused Rheagar's services. This would be a great honor to house Lannister and Jamie as part of the knight's rep dirves from the man that knighted him. The Sword of the Morning knighting the Lion of Lannister is the start of the stuff of legends which is what Tywin wanted. Gerold Hightower appoving the appointment even after we know he didn't want Jamie. Lastly the timely death of the sleeping lion, maybe Pycelle thinking to please Rheagar had him killed.Or the Mad King's orders to free the spot of the KG so that he can name Jamie to the guard. I'm more inclined to believe that this was the act of the king and not the prince as I think that the prince used the vacancy to get his mother to talk to Cersei and then Dayne to work on Hightower to get his approval for the appointment. I don't think he caused the situation but he used the situation to is advantage.

a)This is part of the reason's the men surrounding Aerys never directly blamed for the Tourney. Not to mention that during Duskendale Tywin made the statement that Rheagar would make a better choice in King. By removing Aerys and backing Rheagar call the wrongs done to house Lannister by House Targaryen could be addressed by Rheagar. He could remove Jamie from KG service, he could set Elia aside and wed Cersei while also renaming him as Hand. He's got every reason to want to support Rheagar not to mention he wasn't there but by rights he should have been there to see his son invest with the 'honor' of the white cloak. So Tywin was definitly funding this little interpres and I wouldn't discount some help from Dorne and the Reach as well.

5)So what is a shiny dragon prince to do when looking at those odds. Stack the deck!

That's just some of the damage that those marriage could do if not checked.

The first move have Jamie Lannister named to the Kinguard.

Now you may ask how does that help Rhaegar's cause. It's this very action that sent Tywin Lannister running for the hills and made sure that he wouldn't help the rebels or the loyalist. Exactly.

By having Jamie named to the KG it makes sure that Tywin would be life long enemy of Aerys because not only has he spurred his daughter but now he's deprived him of his heir. Not to mention that it was Cersei that mentioned the KG to Jamie. Yeah the same Cersei that is in love with the prince that, has a prophecy that she's to be queen. That if Rhaella asked her to mention that Jamie such a strong young man, to be named a knight at such a young age and by such a renowned knight as the Sword in the Morning. How much it would put her mind at ease to if someone like her brother was protecting her son against his enemies. Cersei would think it was her lucky day she would get to have not only Rhaegar her shiny prince but her other half Jamie by her side. She would jump at the chance to serve the queen and her own self interest.

Getting Jamie knighted was no problem as he was knighted and in the company of his best friend Dayne so that's not an issue.

Now getting Gerold on board. Now at this time he would be like Selmy's age and if he's as dutiful as he's made out to be he would be looking to the future. Knowing that's not going to live forever, I'm thinking that he was grooming Dayne for the position of LC as that's only natural that Rhaegar would name his best friend to the post when the time came. So I'm thinking he left the choice up to Dayne as Selmy and Tyrion reflect the neither Hightower nor Barristan wanted him in the guard. They thought him too green before the Kingslaying and after that the had no honor. So there's that.

Yet this also, forces the king to leave the Red Keep and stand before the realm. The perfect opputnity to show the realm just how unstable the king really was. This also allows Rhaegar to plan some seeds as Jamie's being appointed to the Aerys's Kinguard it would only be proper and a great honor for the king to bestir himself from the Red Keep to be there when Jamie gets his cloak.

b) Host a tourney to act as an informal GC to hear to woes of the realm, sway some support from Robert to himself, show that the king is a mad man, provoke a couple of instances where Aerys looks and sounds crazy. Like the KotLT or competing in the Tourney which was a mark against Aerys and Robert both. Remember Rheagar already has a rep as a warrior, the Tourney of Lannisport proves that and the Tounney of Storms' End. He also has a rep of not really entering into tourney and neither does Robert. Bloodraven made the statement that men like their kings fearless and stupid. So Rheagar had to play the part of the strapping warrior. Yet he also showed other sides of himself at the Tourney. At the opening feast he shows that he's a singer. That he's just some sad prince that likes to sing songs and no threat. That's the first impression that he gives those at Harrenhal of his character. He appealed not to the men of the realm but the women given Lyanna Stark' reaction to his song crying and all that. I'm also sure that Lyanna wasn't the only female that was effected that night. So what happens when these women are alone with their men folk that night and talk turns to the dragon prince? Well more than like the women speak with affection and of liking him. Just like GRRM showed with Cat and Ned, that the whole saying behind every great man is a great woman. Well these same women that are moved by the prince and his singing will push their husbands to support the prince.

c) Then the next day in the list he dominate all of the competition leaving no question in the minds of his men of the realm that he is a warrior and worthy of their respect for those lords and commons that martial display is needed to prove being a good king. While this also shows up his competition with Robert and those lords that might be inclined to support Robert because of his reputation for being a warrior of the top echelon. As Robert is known not to be of the Tourney Jousting type.

6) Rheagar's next task was to topple Robert's support and go directly for those that surronded themselves with Robert and might want to oppose if family by placing the crown on Robert's head. So he had to start wheeling and dealing with the Arryn's and Stark bannermen.This is a consolidation to Tywin as he gets his heir back, avoids bloodshed, wasting money even if his daughter never becomes queen. That's problem number one solved. Next on the list remove Roberts political powerbase Jon Arryn. Now as you may have notice Jon Arryn while he's fostered both the Spare to Winterfell, the lord of Storm's End and a claimant to the throne. He's been behind the scenes molding Robert into a puppet king. While making sure that he and his heir's hands are clean. Jon is a widower and could still sire an heir, his own nephew and recognized heir wasn't involved in these marriages. It's like Jon wanted to be behind the scenes but makes sure that if he got caught he was safe. He can plead that he had no involvement as he and the Vale aren't involved in these marriages. Yet if Jon doesn't want to be involved in the marriage scheme then what's his angle? He wants power. Well if Rhaegar can get Jon on his side under his regime he can give him all the power he would want without spilling a drop of blood. All Jon has to do is when the Grand Council comes into play side with him over his father. As the handship would be up for grabs as Tywin as vacated the post, he can't very well get mad or hold a grudge if Rhaegar named Jon as his Hand. Tywin left on his own violition because of something that the mad king did. While Rhaegar is the good guy that gave him back his heir, whom he can now groom under his eye to rule back at Casterly Rock far from the throne or any real power. While also asking that as his new hand to support the decision about the fate of Elia and a new wife. This takes care of Robert's political mastermind and turned him into his own. Weakening his competition while strengthen himself at the same time.(Tywin also can't expose himself has having had a hand in funding the tourney as it would make look desprete for power and ungrateful to have his heir back not be stuck with the whoring half man that might be Aerys's son. Another last laugh from the mad king making his son heir to Casterly Rock over the rightful heir Jamie what better way to privately humilate Tywin and publicly?)

7)Now to cause some havoc in Robert's own home territory. That's where Ashara Dayne comes in. Wed her to Robert's bannerman Jon Connington, should it come to war. Jon and those lords that rebelled against Robert ban together along with the Daynes, to attack Sun Spear, while using the Yronwoods to join their strength to Jon's in the Stromlands forces Robert to have to stay in Stormlands instead of marching an army on the capital or leading troops to cut of any Dornish help the crown could expect.

8)The Kidnapping was staged, it was a Trojan horse move to get the Northern contingency inside of the Capital without raising the king's suspicions.

This is where Brandon Stark and his headstrong nature actually works for Rhaegar. In one move he can get the Winterfell heir on his side and get an inside party inside of the capital. Let Brandon go to the Capital "on the grounds" that Rhaegar kidnapped his sister and that he wasn't to do battle for her back. He wanted to be arrested. This gets the northern lords and trident lords in the capital. The trident lords are there to "act as witness" of the trials and answer to any possible treasons. It was away for Robert to politically and publically save face. Not having to be faced with the fact that Lyanna would rather be with the prince than him it saves his ego or would have for most men.

1)The timing was prefect right before the wedding to Tully.

2)Gets Rickard and company in the Capital

3)Gives the rest of the realm even more reason to remove the King. If Brandon's arrest was made to seem unwarranted. It's only those that were in the castle that know that Brandon was calling for Rhaegar to come out to die

4)Gives a more plausible reason for why they were there and why he would be so stupid

I think if things had gone to plan and Rhaegar got back to the Capital before the King called for their deaths. This removes the need for Brandon to wed Hosteen Tully's daughter that by Lady Dustin's account he didn't even want her.

With a regime change the need for the marriage is removed, and removing the need for Riverrun. The king (Rhaegar) could set the betrothal contract off the table, while also removing the future threat that a Tully/Stark alliance could present. All the while doing his brother-in- law a solid favor by getting him out of a marriage he didn't want.

This fits as Hosteen thought that it was crazy that he went rushing off to the Capital. Here's how you keep things all good, offer Hosteen a seat on the council as master of laws, a marriage between Delana Florent and Edmure Tully and Catelyn Tully and Jamie Lannister. An ally with the Lannisters is a closer ally than the north. His daughter becomes Lady of Casterly Rock and to appease Walder Frey a marriage between one of Walder's sons and Lysa Tully. This gets good will with Walder, gets him as an ally. Walder gets to prove his loyalty to the crown as they were involved in the second Blackfyre rebellion. On the crowns part its a show of good faith and good will of royal favor. Like Tyrion said a good lord never lets blood get in the way of ambition and as Lysa is soiled goods a Frey is a pretty good catch. Hosteen also doesn't strike me as the type of man to let a marriage get in the way of advancing his family and getting on the good side of the new Targaryen regime.

Eddard "Ned" Stark is the key to the whole Northern alliance or scheme. He was fostered in the Vale, close friends with Robert, has the ear of both Jon Arryn and Robert Baratheon. Most likely being groomed by Rickard and Jon to act as a liaison between Robert and Brandon. Given his cooler head and quiet nature would act as a counterbalance to Brandon's rasher nature and Robert's more blacker moods. He's also close with his little sister Lyanna. Last but not least he's an honest man. More than likely Ned's reputation as being honest wasn't earned overnight. In this alliance of Jon and Rickard's Ned is the future he's the glue that holds this whole thing together. This is where Ashara Dayne becomes the key to this whole enterprise. Now from what we know it seems as if the too dance together after Ned asked his brother to ask her. We learn from Cat, Ayra(thru Ned Dayne) and Selmy that something more may have transpired between Ned Stark and Lady Ashara. Now I am no means saying that Arthur or Rhaegar were pimping her out but I am suggesting that they asked her to be extra nice or flirtatious with Ned. Arthur could hardly object to a match being made between the two as Ned's unattached and so is his sister, he's got powerful family and connections, brother to lord of winterfell, friend to the lord of the Vale and Storm's End, brother to the possible future Queen of Westeros. So on paper Ned's a good catch for an ambitious family. Did I fail to mention that his family is rich, comes from a line that is the second oldest male line in Westeros next to the Daynes, descendent from kings and his families territories is as big as all the other territories combined.

The crowning was a political statement to Rickard and Tywin. That he's serious about needing a new wife and that Lyanna was his choice. To Tywin that if Cersei was there it could have been her. While the choice of bride is all politically motivated its also about her bloodlines. Arryn(through Royce), Blackwood(has Targ blood as well as the Royces), Blood of the old Gardener kings(Manderly), as wells the trident kings through the Blackwood/Bracken bloodlines. While being connected to the ironborn through the marriage to house Flint, amazing horse riders and previous kings the Rysers. Giants blood through the Umbers and being the blood of the last Warg Kings daughter. It was her magical bloodlines as well as being related to the powerful northern lord Paramount, and the blood of first men is what attracted Rheagar to Lyanna Stark. Her being pretty was an added bonus.

If this was truly "The Prince," by Machiavelli, I could go along with it, but I don't think that is the story that George Martin wants to tell.
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Yet Petyr Baelish's character is based off of Mach and lot of the political intrigue is definitely behind the character's actions are motivated by themes presented in the book the Prince and it's my theory that Rheagar's political actions are the pre-type for Baelish.



Tywin is definitely an ends justify the means type character.


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Still slowly making my way through the book. But wanted to point out that Maegor I lost two of his KG, before his death, to Jaehaerys the First because of his cruelty and tyranny. Might be a bit of a nudge that Dayne and Whent (and maybe Martell at that point?) were siding with Rhaegar and his attempts to take down another cruel and despotic king.

Agreed on those two but I doubt very much that Hightower would have switched allegiance like that.

Considering that Jaime feels all of them judged him from the beyond, I believe they all were on it (except Barristan).

That makes me wish a scene in which Jaime dies and he's welcome by Aerys' KG :(

I still believe we're missing something here, and indeed, all five KG were plotting.

I think the fact that Rhaegar was planning to call a council after the rebellion was defeated indicates that there WAS a pre-existing question of the inheritance, as that's exactly what previous Grand Councils were called to determine.

LOL at everything, but this part I believe is important.

First, mostly councils (or all of them, can't remember now) we know about were celebrated because there was a problem with a lack of heirs or an inheritance. In this specific case, Rhaegar's case could have sent a bad precedent. Aerys was alive and "being crazy" is not really an argument to remove a Targaryen King. Of course, as we don't have medical boards deciding on his health, some men loyal to Aerys (for whatever reason), could have said "no, he's an ambitious man who wants to get rid of his father".

Second, Rhaegar did return to KL before parting for the Trident. According to Jaime, he asked Aerys to call Tywin and make him hand. I'm very sure that wasn't the only thing they discussed, being the first topic "where the fuck were you?". After that, Rhaegar parted with an army.

Here is something that doesn't fit. Why didn't Aerys start screaming that Rhaegar was a traitor, that the Rebellion was probably his idea to get him gone and got him arrested and killed? Wouldn't that be the first thing Aerys would do if he had actually believed that Rhaegar want to remove him from power?

Maybe, and I'm crackpotting here, he told Aerys "Fine. I don't care. Remove me from power, take my rights away and name Viserys instead. But call Tywin Lannister".

I suppose some could have heard that, although mostly of Aerys' council died by the end of the Rebellion or were exiled and mentioned anything. And that's why Rhaegar needed the council, because he had no rights anymore, and he wasn't a direct danger to Aerys.

Speaking of which, where is Lucerys Velarion??

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Yet Petyr Baelish's character is based off of Mach and lot of the political intrigue is definitely behind the character's actions are motivated by themes presented in the book the Prince and it's my theory that Rheagar's political actions are the pre-type for Baelish.

Tywin is definitely an ends justify the means type character.

You do know that The Prince is widely held to be satire, right? If anything, Martin uses Machiavellian political philosophy as a starting point of how NOT to do things.

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Yet Petyr Baelish's character is based off of Mach and lot of the political intrigue is definitely behind the character's actions are motivated by themes presented in the book the Prince and it's my theory that Rheagar's political actions are the pre-type for Baelish.

Tywin is definitely an ends justify the means type character.

I disagree that Rhaegar's political maneuvering is evidence that he had this Littlefinger-like persona. Nothing in canon, nor in TWOIAF, shows that at all.

Rhaegar was balanced between being motivated by prophesy and politics. As were all the Targs -- after all, the reason why they lived post-Valyria is because of a prophecy.

However, until Aerys, they were pragmatic as well. Aegon didn't have to offer a "bend the knee" option to his enemies, but he did. The Targs also seemed to make somewhat of an effort to integrate into Westeros, which from an Essosi perspective was a more "barbaric" place. It's not just Valyrians who thought they were better than Westeros. Everyone in Essos considers Westeros to be a backwater. Coming from that POV, I think the Targaryens adopting the Faith of the Seven (look at Baelor the Blessed!), marrying into many Westerosi houses, and establishing a unified government counts for something.

Rhaegar was part of that tradition of politics. He was well versed in it, and I'm sure he knew the kingdoms' history as well as he knew the prophecies. But I am not sure that he was a Prince in the Machiavellian style. Westeros isn't anything like Renaissance Italy -- you need to look across the Narrow Sea for a corresponding place, and anyway, 300 AL isn't yet the Renaissance on Planetos, if they even have anything like it with the Ghiscaris and Valyria destroyed. Without classical knowledge, where would their seeds for modernity come from?

Anyway, you just can't discount the fact that Rhaegar was motivated by the prophecies, too. That's not politics, that's magic.

Daenys the Dreamer, his ancestor, led to her family making a decision that made them the mock of Valyria, but ultimately, saved her lineage. Similarly, Rhaegar's "song of ice and fire" may very well save everything, so what some of us think makes him look foolish in canon (or calculating, or evil) may seem like genius in hindsight.

If you want a Littlefinger-like person behind the scenes in 281, I suggest you look to Tywin, not Rhaegar. Clearly, the prince didn't expect the king to show up at Harrenhal, and that happens. It's why I have been suggesting a pre-RR division between King's Men and Prince's Men that if allowed to continue would have resulted in a dragonless dance -- so there would've still been some kind of war in 282-283 even if Rhaegar had not acted...

The difference in that AU, though? No Jon Snow.

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Alot of what I've stated is actually based off of canon from the book, I'm just tying to understand the motivations behind the players involved. Why some acted so out of character from what little we know about Rheagar. Something greater was at play than just love sick.


Rickard and his cohorts hands weren't clean either. The World book wouldn' t have mentioned Rickard's southorn ambitions nor his bannerman's distate and feeling like his actions helped cause the rebellion. Meaning those marriages weren't so innocent. The book also mentions that Rheagar was more than likely the money man of the event. He wanted as many ppl there and money,honor/glory is a great motivator even if they are just a lowly knight(that goes anywhere and tell the story wide or singers) this tourney catered to all types singers, jousters, warriors, political powerhouses, look at the known invite list, now think about all the political players not mentioned that might have had a role to play.


Why else do you explain the monumental opposition this tourney caused from the beggining going as far as to almost outlaw tourneys!! come on and tell you someone wasn't pulling the strings. Aerys had to make it appear he wasn't worried about his son and his plots. Nor was could he let the nobles think that they frightened him as that would definitely set the wolves to howling. So Aerys was cornered into having to go to HH where events were staked to show him in the worst possible light. To how benefit? Rheagar's all the while quietly talkingsp to different lords and also undermining Robert at ever turn. Yeah that's right the first book was called a game of friends not thrones and the rest havent been about Political struggles and machivelli like intrigue and political manuvers. Littlefinger is the nicest guy in the realm and his hands are spotless or so his rep in the books would show.Yet those closer to him know the real deal and he's a snake. So Rheagar has a spotless rep and greatly looked upon someone had to be the hatchet man. King Edward IV had Richard. Caeser Borgia had Don Micheletto the Duke's strangler and he as a real man. just to name a few. In the game of the thrones if your not doing your own dirty work then someone is cleaning up the messes.

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Nah. Rhaegar manipulating things behind the scenes and using hatchet men is way too easy for a narrative like this. It's the view we get of his character from Robert in AGoT.



It's not correct. What you're proposing is a structure where in the first book, we see Rhaegar as a villain, we're thrown red herrings for 4-5 books and given endless hints and clues that maybe he's actually not Robert's labels of "kidnapper" and "rapist"...



... and in the end, GRRM says "nah, Rhaegar really was the villain of the series! HA! Fooled you all!"



That's not how this genre works. :)


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Alot of what I've stated is actually based off of canon from the book, I'm just tying to understand the motivations behind the players involved. Why some acted so out of character from what little we know about Rheagar. Something greater was at play than just love sick.

Rickard and his cohorts hands weren't clean either. The World book wouldn' t have mentioned Rickard's southorn ambitions nor his bannerman's distate and feeling like his actions helped cause the rebellion. Meaning those marriages weren't so innocent. The book also mentions that Rheagar was more than likely the money man of the event. He wanted as many ppl there and money,honor/glory is a great motivator even if they are just a lowly knight(that goes anywhere and tell the story wide or singers) this tourney catered to all types singers, jousters, warriors, political powerhouses, look at the known invite list, now think about all the political players not mentioned that might have had a role to play.

Why else do you explain the monumental opposition this tourney caused from the beggining going as far as to almost outlaw tourneys!! come on and tell you someone wasn't pulling the strings. Aerys had to make it appear he wasn't worried about his son and his plots. Nor was could he let the nobles think that they frightened him as that would definitely set the wolves to howling. So Aerys was cornered into having to go to HH where events were staked to show him in the worst possible light. To how benefit? Rheagar's all the while quietly talkingsp to different lords and also undermining Robert at ever turn. Yeah that's right the first book was called a game of friends not thrones and the rest havent been about Political struggles and machivelli like intrigue and political manuvers. Littlefinger is the nicest guy in the realm and his hands are spotless or so his rep in the books would show.Yet those closer to him know the real deal and he's a snake. So Rheagar has a spotless rep and greatly looked upon someone had to be the hatchet man. King Edward IV had Richard. Caeser Borgia had Don Micheletto the Duke's strangler and he as a real man. just to name a few. In the game of the thrones if your not doing your own dirty work then someone is cleaning up the messes.

While Rickard wanted to elevate his presence in the kingdom, he was still considered an honorable man.

Rickard may have been a bit like Peter the Great, wanting to advance his people, and pull them out of isolation.

But, the book is another example of history being written by the victors, and the theme of the unreliable/ biased narrator.

Yandel vs. Mushroom.

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First, mostly councils (or all of them, can't remember now) we know about were celebrated because there was a problem with a lack of heirs or an inheritance. In this specific case, Rhaegar's case could have sent a bad precedent. Aerys was alive and "being crazy" is not really an argument to remove a Targaryen King. Of course, as we don't have medical boards deciding on his health, some men loyal to Aerys (for whatever reason), could have said "no, he's an ambitious man who wants to get rid of his father".

I think it's the first great council that's the important one, because it was

a. called while the king was still alive, but no longer trusted to be in a fit mental state to decide on the succession, and

b. held at Harrenhal.

My guess is that the plan was to use the council to remove Aerys' ability to threaten to disinherit the Rheagar>Aegon line in favour of Viserys as a power play. Aerys wouldn't have been removed from the throne, but would have it made clear to him that he would be facing a united resistance unless he was willing to become a figurehead king with Rhaegar and Tywin as Hand doing most of the actual ruling (note that Tywin comes into the rebellion when Rhaegar is dead).

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This is what I always thought that Selmy might have been referring to in his "playing the GOT" parallels to Dayne and the secrets of the Red Keep, which seems to imply that Rhaegar must have split his time between Dragonstone and KL.

And it was a KG who changed the succession when the Princess dumped him, (or I speculate that Cole was dumped and he was angry).

But the fact that it is the king who decides who gets protection, I always wondered how Dayne and Whent found themselves to be with Rhaegar. And I think Hightower got caught in a semantics trap.

The king should have told him to bring Rhaegar back, and to disregard anything that Rhaegar might order him to do. Because his statement about Aerys would still sit the throne make me think he was not convinced to get rid of Aerys. :dunno:

Perhaps Aerys already feared that Whent and Dayne were in the same team as Rhaegar, and he feared that keeping them close would only give Rhaegar an oppertunity to spy on him? In that case, he placed Dayne and Whent with Rhaegar, chosing the lesser of two evils.

I have been saying since I first started Reading this book series that something wasn't right about the events that led up to Harrenhal and I have been saying for months that Rheagar stealing Lyanna was a political move and not that of a love sick prince. I've been saying for months that Harrenhal was the grand council and Brandon Showing up at the red keep like he did was political theater he wanted to be arrested! That was all part of the plan. I've also been working on most of the stuff we found out from the book even before the book was out. So it's nice to be vindicated an no longer going to be told I'm a fan boy because I didn't think that Lyanna and Rheagar were stupid. This also puts the whole Elia thing in prespective because I've been saying that something wasn't right why take Lyanna to Dorne of all places unless there was something else going on. Then look at where the tower of Joy is located in the Princes's pass. there is on way that Ned and Howland Reed made it from the tower to starfell without some assistance from the neighboring castles. THe mountains of Dorne know about Jon and are waiting for the right time to strike!

Also did anyone catch that Jon Snow if Rheagar's is related to the Sword of the Morning and Hightower through his Targ heritage but because of the Blackwood bloodline's from both sides of the family tree I'm sure there is some Whent and Tully blood as well. So he and Cat are related. Also the Starks and Arryns are related through blood and I was right that there was something fishy about Jon Arryn fostering Ned Stark but given they are family not so much right.

Where are the textual hints for that?

Also, if you're going to look at bloodlines like that, half of Westeros is related to each other.. That one of Rhaegar's ancestors was a Dayne, who is related in an unknown, and perhaps rather distant way, to Ser Arthur, doesn't mean much.

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I'm sure that half of westeros is related, but my point was Jon's descent from every region on the map and from their kingly lines not minor houses that was the point I was trying to make. Also that Jon is a product of his different bloodlines whether he knows it or not. example that freakish strength of his. Well he is descent from the Umbers who are said to be descent from Giants an given his smaller or slight statue that puts his strengh into perspective. Look at the scene where he's fighting the wildlings, taking an arrow though the thigh only to mount a horse no saddle with sword in hand. Not saying that he's not a really good rider and horseman I'm just pointing out that he's descent from the Ryswells and Brackens both houses known for their horsemen. So that's what I meant when I was talking about his bloodlines.

How bout looking at the map. The tower of Joy is located at the top of the Prince's Pass. There is no way that with Nightsong at the bottom of those mountains and in Robert's territory, Manwood, Skyreach(the seat for the Prince's Pass lord) Starfell, and High Hermitage. There is no way Ned and Howland Reed get from the Tower to Starfell unnoticed. There is no way that the Princess and Doran don't at least know that Lyanna is in the Tower. There is no way that those lords that have seats in the Pass doesn't have some kind of contact with the Tower it's just impossible to even imagine let alone think that they didn't know that she was there, pregnat and gave birth to a boy(if jon is Rheagar's) there is just no way. There Ned's story or dream doesn't make sense. Why tear down the tower in enemy territory, with just 2 people and a newborn and the closets wetnurse is Manwood or Skyreach but as Ned just killed the Sword of the morning I don't think he can turn to them for help and Starfell isn't that close its at least 2 day journey and High Hermitage. Bran and his party were seen and known about from the moment they left the cyrpts of Winterfell and started their way North, Don't you think the same could be said about Ned and Howland? Cat and her party though the mountains of the Vale couldn't stop and cover their dead with carrion like Cat wanted because they were in enemey territory and didn't have the time or men to do so. So I'm to believe the Ned and howland in an ever worse situation, a new born king, 3 dead KG one the beloved Sword of the Morning the other the former LC of the KG and a Hightower to boot, while lastly there was Whent and then their own dead northerns. Ned has time to tear down the tower, construct the carrions, and get Jon to a wet nurse before he starves and it's just him and Howland Reed. Ned by himself if captured would have fetched a handsome ransom, lord of WF, best friend of the King and Hand. Come on he's a grand prize and no one touched him and he made it north with his life. Something isn't right and the fact that I'm one of the few that even admits it there something wrong with this picture.

Sometimes it's not about hard cold facts or evidence, its call common sense and logic. group a of character are set a similar situation and can't do what group b did and they are in a worse situation than group a them something isn't right and maybe one should take a closer look. GRRM doesn't have to come right and say that what happen at that Tower is not been told in full but what has been told has been distorted or retold in a way that leaves alot of room for doubt of even questions bout what is known! PPL were calling Rheanyra's children bastards. Up until their descriptions in Rogue Prince and the little slip about the boy's eggs possibly not hatching would give this thought crediblity. especially given how her other two sons turned out in the same situation father being of targ blood and the boys both look the part. So something is right about the older three boys dragonriders or not. So what's someone to assume that they were bastards. IF given their descriptions first most would have been doubtful to begin with but because in the queen and princess were are lead to believe that the hatred and dislike between the mothers lead to this particular part of political progranda.

Sometimes its not about looking at the problem as sum, but a total of its parts. And given several of situation that happened in the book, should call into question everything that one knows about the Tower and the events surrounding said tower and lyanna's time in dorne. Especially if Lyanna was a hostage to Dorne for the Martells good behavior. note the tower in the care of Lords of the princes's pass with Skyreach one castle away, with a buffer between Sunspear and the Tower called Yronwood territory and to the back of the tower are the 2 branches of house Dayne. So really your tying to tell me that Rheagar wasn't taking precausion with LYanna and her safety.

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I think it's the first great council that's the important one, because it was

a. called while the king was still alive, but no longer trusted to be in a fit mental state to decide on the succession, and

b. held at Harrenhal.

My guess is that the plan was to use the council to remove Aerys' ability to threaten to disinherit the Rheagar>Aegon line in favour of Viserys as a power play. Aerys wouldn't have been removed from the throne, but would have it made clear to him that he would be facing a united resistance unless he was willing to become a figurehead king with Rhaegar and Tywin as Hand doing most of the actual ruling (note that Tywin comes into the rebellion when Rhaegar is dead).

I think this is the gist of it, though it does put the crowning of Lyanna in an interesting light. If Rhaegar is using the Tourney to make clear that he is the proper heir and that any move by Aerys to name Viserys should be discounted, nevertheless there must have been concern about the fact that he had only one offspring, and a girl at that. That first Great Council at Harrenhal made clear that most were uncomfortable with a female being named heir (though there were notable dissident voices, who preferred to uphold the principle of absolute primogeniture, regardless of sex), and so there must have been some who, while not thinking Viserys should come before Rhaegar, thought that Viserys should come before Rhaenys. I wonder if Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna might not also serve as a statement that he is capable of marrying again.

I'm not saying this is likely, since after all, this is before Elia gives birth to Aegon and is told that she can't bear any more children, so there is no reason for Rhaegar or anyone else to assume that he won't be producing more heirs with Elia.

Perhaps Aerys already feared that Whent and Dayne were in the same team as Rhaegar, and he feared that keeping them close would only give Rhaegar an oppertunity to spy on him? In that case, he placed Dayne and Whent with Rhaegar, chosing the lesser of two evils.

Or worse. At this point, Aerys is clearly fearing for his own safety, and we see him worrying about Jaime being beside him with a sword. Maybe he also fears for his own safety with Whent and Dayne around.

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Over the man, or the song? Both? :drool:

Based on the text? The song. :) But, who knows... We won't have her PoV, we may never know.

For JonCon said that Rhaegar brought everyone to tears- except the men of course.

Liar Liar Sigil on fire! :D

Really? He doesn't sound like a man who enjoys all the trappings of royalty, or the nature of court.

The trappings of royalty is his reality. He tried to make the best of it; he didn't run away across the Narrow Sea to try to enjoy the life without the trappings of his status, to seek an alternative.

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Snp..

How about looking at a map, you say? How about looking at textual evidence, I ask?

ToJ was a remote, abandoned tower. So no, it is not logical to assume that the lords who live in the lands surrounding the tower have to have known about Rhaegar and co staying there. You state it is a 2 day journey to Starfall? Unless you have a super speed horse, that's totally not the case. It's quite the journey, and people don't tend to look for people they don't know are present at a location, if said location is supposed to be abandoned anyway.

Bran was spotted on his way north, you say. Indeed he was, but IIRC, only by one person. One.

Would Ned and Howland have been able to get to Starfall without being noticed? No, probably not. But assuming that it must have been the case that they were treated hostile, is an assumption, without any textual ground.

ToJ was supposed to be abandoned, so no, it doesn't have to have been the case that every high lord in Dorne knew that Rhaegar and Lyanna were there. Especially the Martells, who, had they had the information, would have used it to get Elia and her children freed from Aerys' grasp, and end the Rebellion sooner.

So really your tying to tell me that Rheagar wasn't taking precausion with LYanna and her safety.

And no, this was not what I, nor I think anyone on this thread, was saying. At all.

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