[TWOIAF Spoilers] R+L=J without spoiler tags v.2

[PrettyPig]

The Martells had every reason to want Aerys gone. Not only insulted Rhaenys (probably in front of the court) and consequently, he insulted Dorne, but as few spoke of disowning Rhaegar, that would mean Elia and her children could also be in danger. I even would say that, once Rhaegar is King, and his son is the heir, they wouldn't mind little if he had wanted one or hundreds of mistresses. Their only priority would be assure Rhaegar's on the throne, and Elia as his Queen. Of course, I suppose they would have never imagined that Rhaegar was going to have a second wife.

...which I also assume Rhaegar knew would cause a distress among their main supporters.

Yet, if they believed on the rumours of Rhaegar running away with Lyanna, I assume they indeed went mad. The question here would be, how much of it Lewyn knew? Because even though is stated that Doran was mad at Rhaegar's behaviour, it could have also been due to Aerys taking Elia as hostage (which was indirectly caused by Rhaegar)

Or because there was a tacit agreement made with Doran/Oberyn/Elia's MOTHER and her children weren't in on it .

Has it been confirmed who Doran's mother is, and when she died? The wiki (yeah yeah) puts her death around the time of RR, and the World Book doesn't have information that I've seen thus far. Given that she, Joanna, and Rhaella were all court buddies and that Tywin effectively shit on her betrothal proposals, there would definitely be an axe to grind with Lannister and a reason to work out an arrangement with a new Targaryen regent.

I have been theorizing on Dorne's involvement , given how much they had to gain in the realm with Rhaegar/Elia's heirs.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Random thought.

I know little of military forces and distances, but, if Rhaegar wanted a quick removal of Aerys, wouldn't having the North on his side be a little bit impractical, considering the amount of time an army could get to the Crownlands, where I assume any kind of conflict would happen? It would be a priority to have the Stormlands, the Riverlands and Dorne to his side, though, specially because those regions have people already connected to him. Lyanna would mean an army, but that army could take forever to arrive. I could be wrong, though.

[Avalatis]

All of the bolded!!!!

I mentioned earlier that I think Rhaegar was betrayed. IMO this all leads back to Tywin. Twyin double-crossed everyone - Rhaegar, Aerys, and the northern lords - in order to maximize his position for the IT. Given the betrothals already in place and the fact that Aerys stripped Tywin of his one viable heir to the throne, the only way he had a shot was to overthrow ALL Targs, jack up the preexisting superbloc by removing many of the players, and marry Cersei to a new king.

I am working out a theory of this crazy multi-faceted backstabbing, but this is where it's going. Tywin Lannister was tired of being second fiddle - a Lannister was going on that throne.

Tywin is already dead though. This type of big reveal that Tywin is responsible for every huge betrayal in Westeros doesn't seem all that important. I would imagine this would have been revealed before Tywin died. If something like this is revealed in books 6 or 7 the readers are going to be like "Okay?" I just don't see this playing a major role in the story, we already have plenty of reasons to dislike Tywin and he is now gone.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

I'm sure Tywin was hoping to back Rhaegar and be his hand. In fact, Rhaegar did told Aerys to call Tywin back, which he did. And he could have asked him to remove Jaime from the KG. Once Rhaegar died, Tywin saw little benefit from supporting Aerys as they were in bad terms.

[Alia of the knife]

But its one thing to bring a mistress, its another to bring in a concubine, which is somewhere between wife and mistress, but a wife?

And why do I get the feeling the next reveal will be that Aegon was sickly?

As I've postulated before, a woman coming from a culture where she does have "rights" is actually LESS inclined to put up with something than to do so.

Where Elia was frail in body, she may not have been in mind, and possibly had her own agenda, especially after Harrenhal, the birth of her son, and unable to have more.

[PrettyPig]

Tywin is already dead though. This type of big reveal that Tywin is responsible for every huge betrayal in Westeros doesn't seem all that important. I would imagine this would have been revealed before Tywin died. If something like this is revealed in books 6 or 7 the readers are going to be like "Okay?" I just don't see this playing a major role in the story, we already have plenty of reasons to dislike Tywin and he is now gone.

True, but 2 books still leaves plenty of opportunity to reveal it and watch what's left of his empire and legacy go up in flames - Cersei losing it, Jaime doing whatever Jaime is going to do on his quasi-redemptive arc, and Tyrion working to get the last known heir(s) of his father's enemy back to the throne.

Plus, I am certain that Tywin would had to have had help, perhaps in the form of a certain eunuch that we know and love....which would peel back more layers of the onion and reveal additional "why".

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

The Martells had every reason to want Aerys gone. Not only insulted Rhaenys (probably in front of the court) and consequently, he insulted Dorne, but as few spoke of disowning Rhaegar, that would mean Elia and her children could also be in danger. I even would say that, once Rhaegar is King, and his son is the heir, they wouldn't mind little if he had wanted one or hundreds of mistresses. Their only priority would be assure Rhaegar's on the throne, and Elia as his Queen. Of course, I suppose they would have never imagined that Rhaegar was going to have a second wife.

...which I also assume Rhaegar knew would cause a distress among their main supporters.

Yet, if they believed on the rumours of Rhaegar running away with Lyanna, I assume they indeed went mad. The question here would be, how much of it Lewyn knew? Because even though is stated that Doran was mad at Rhaegar's behaviour, it could have also been due to Aerys taking Elia as hostage (which was indirectly caused by Rhaegar)

What if the Martell were so slow to lend aid to House Targaryen during the Rebellion because they were aware of Aerys' dislike of Rhaenys ("smelled dornish"), and they feared (or knew) that this dislike extended to Aegon, and thus Doran believed that Rhaegar had taken Lyanna to make her his new Queen, father other children, and thereby strengthen his own place in the succession? Along this line, it might be possible that House Martell feared that Rhaegar did what he had done because he wanted to ensure his own inheritance, and thus wanted to offer Aerys other grandchildren than the dornish ones.

The fact that there was a King's party and a Prince's party won't have escaped Dorne's notice.

Or because there was a tacit agreement made with Doran/Oberyn/Elia's MOTHER and her children weren't in on it .

Has it been confirmed who Doran's mother is, and when she died? The wiki (yeah yeah) puts her death around the time of RR, and the World Book doesn't have information that I've seen thus far. Given that she, Joanna, and Rhaella were all court buddies and that Tywin effectively shit on her betrothal proposals, there would definitely be an axe to grind with Lannister and a reason to work out an arrangement with a new Targaryen regent.

I have been theorizing on Dorne's involvement , given how much they had to gain in the realm with Rhaegar/Elia's heirs.

It hasn't been specifically stated when she died, only that she arranged the engagement of Elia and Rhaegar (thus, she was at least still alive in 279AC). The World Book states clearly that Dorne's actions during the war were Doran decisions (the book had done so previously as well, but not as clear as the World Book does now, at least, I find the world books statements more clear), which would strongly suggest that Mama Martell died before the end of the Rebellion.

[Ser Creighton]

Tywin is already dead though. This type of big reveal that Tywin is responsible for every huge betrayal in Westeros doesn't seem all that important. I would imagine this would have been revealed before Tywin died. If something like this is revealed in books 6 or 7 the readers are going to be like "Okay?" I just don't see this playing a major role in the story, we already have plenty of reasons to dislike Tywin and he is now gone.

Ok first off nobody is saying Tywin is responsible for every big betrayal in Westeros, but his hands are dirty all over the place. It's the game of thrones. LF has his stuff, Varys his, the Tyrells are working there angles. No he does not have to be alive as none of the people he betrayed are alive. But given the info in the new book it would appear that Tywin had his hands in things and was playing the two off eachother. You also have to include the human factor because it will not be a perfect plan, things will get sloppy, that's the human factor, and that regularly happens.

You know he knew Elia for years and she never did him a wrong as far as we know. But he had no problem having her and her kids offed to improve his position. That's what you are dealing with, and the fact is he is very much the type to plot and betray.

I am not saying it's just Tywin, in fact I wrote that it is probably multi faceted with multiple houses plotting in their best interest. I say this because for the entire series that's been exactly what they do. I am not saying that everything that happened if because of Tywin, but in the part we are discussing I would implicate him. I am implicating him. Not to say other people didn't do stuff, it's just that is who I am focusing on at this time. You know Rhaegar and Aerys both have there hands in it as well.

I don't think over generalizing the discussion helps, and yeah I am using conjecture, applied supposition, and some assumptions as well as facts. But I have to because that is how the books are written.

Like bog reveal about Jon' parents when it happens, is not going to be Jon talking to his parents, cause they dead. Won't make it any less impactful.

[PrettyPig]

It hasn't been specifically stated when she died, only that she arranged the engagement of Elia and Rhaegar (thus, she was at least still alive in 279AC). The World Book states clearly that Dorne's actions during the war were Doran decisions (the book had done so previously as well, but not as clear as the World Book does now, at least, I find the world books statements more clear), which would strongly suggest that Mama Martell died before the end of the Rebellion.

I would love to know if she was still alive prior to the tourney. Given that she and Rhaella were buddies at court, and that Rhaella's relationship with Aerys wasn't all that (even though he had quit sleeping around), and that Rhaella clearly didn't share Aerys' poisonous views of Elia and Rhaenys, I wonder if perhaps they were quietly working out a succession plan. (Again, Dorne stands to make out like bandits if Rhaegar bucks trend and puts Rhaenys in line for the throne.)

A succession plan that would send Tywin into fits and put Lannisters even farther from the throne, I might add. One that he could begin to undo by carefully playing Aerys and Rhaegar off each other, arranging a setup that would break a strong alliance with Dorne.....

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I would love to know if she was still alive prior to the tourney. Given that she and Rhaella were buddies at court, and that Rhaella's relationship with Aerys wasn't all that (even though he had quit sleeping around), and that Rhaella clearly didn't share Aerys' poisonous views of Elia and Rhaenys, I wonder if perhaps they were quietly working out a succession plan. (Again, Dorne stands to make out like bandits if Rhaegar bucks trend and puts Rhaenys in line for the throne.)

A succession plan that would send Tywin into fits and put Lannisters even farther from the throne, I might add. One that he could begin to undo by carefully playing Aerys and Rhaegar off each other, arranging a setup that would break a strong alliance with Dorne.....

There´s no hint as to whether she was still alive during the Tourney, I´m afraid.. Perhaps some day we'll learn, in addition to her name.

[IceFire125]

So would you assume that Hightower and the other Kingsguard did not receive word that Aerys had named Viserys heir after Rhaegar died? Or did they choose to ignore it?

Here's my opinion:

The 3KGs received news of the sack and on top of that (maybe have) received the news that Aerys named Viserys as heir and sent him to Dragonstone.

1. Due to the fog of war, they refused to believe that Viserys was named heir, as in people spreading false report for evil intent to draw out the remaining 3KGs in the open.

or..

2. Upon hearing it, they believe that Aerys did not have full information that Rhaegar have another son (Jon, who is legitimate since with them is Aerys' seal of R+L marriage document). And thus they played the game of throne, but in full intent of good to the Targaryen dynasty.

When Ned brought up about they should go to Prince Viserys to Dragonstone, Hightower explained that they swore a vow, to protect who is now their king, Jon, the true heir to the throne.

[Ser Creighton]

Let me point something out about how I think you can discern information from the books.

At one point the book tells us that late in Tywins career as hand Aerys did not trust him. Which I believe, and that Aerys kept him around to humiliate him. Which I agree also that he did. But it goes into pointing out how Aerys was not thinking things through. Like with Jaime, Aerys was seeking instant gratification. He was playing the short game. This will show Tywin. I'll insult him his family his wife, what have you. But it was always the short game. But we see how it does not work out for him. He places Jaime in the KG only to later realize he just placed Tywins son right next to him with a sword. He was not able to think things out. Tywin on the other hand has always played the long game.

Tywin is said to have asked to quit as hand. Did he mean it? Or was this part of his long game as well. The book informs us that after a time no matter what Tywin said to Aerys, Aerys would think the opposite. If Tywin suggested something, Aerys would go in the opposite direction. Well that totally works out to Tywins favor. "Your grace Rhaegar loves you and would never betray" Something like that would easily drive Aerys into paranoia. It makes Tywin look great cause publicly he saying the right things, but he gets the results he wants driviing Aerys towards self destructing. Now that is from the book and that is a hell of a tool for Tywin to ignore. Because I don't think he would ignore it, that serves everything he likes to do. And it plays into Tywins long game and that's what I mean when I he could play Aerys off Rhaegar. In turn he could be going to Rhaegar saying see how irrational your father we must dispose him for the good of the Kingdom.

It works out to well, Tywin looks great on both ends and Rhaegar and Aerys are pitted against the other. Tywin could easily manipulate both this way. Given the book points out that this is how Aerys worked with Tywin later on and that Tywin used it. One conclusion would seem to lead to the other.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

But its one thing to bring a mistress, its another to bring in a concubine, which is somewhere between wife and mistress, but a wife?

And why do I get the feeling the next reveal will be that Aegon was sickly?

As I've postulated before, a woman coming from a culture where she does have "rights" is actually LESS inclined to put up with something than to do so.

Where Elia was frail in body, she may not have been in mind, and possibly had her own agenda, especially after Harrenhal, the birth of her son, and unable to have more.

I agree with the last part. It looks a stupid move from Rhaegar to go and even postulate his intentions to Elia or Lewyn, no matter how hard he assured Aegon would be his heir. It's more even stupid for Lewyn to agree and tell Doran "Oh, yeah... nothing will go wrong, I trust Rhaegar".

What if the Martell were so slow to lend aid to House Targaryen during the Rebellion because they were aware of Aerys' dislike of Rhaenys ("smelled dornish"), and they feared (or knew) that this dislike extended to Aegon, and thus Doran believed that Rhaegar had taken Lyanna to make her his new Queen, father other children, and thereby strengthen his own place in the succession? Along this line, it might be possible that House Martell feared that Rhaegar did what he had done because he wanted to ensure his own inheritance, and thus wanted to offer Aerys other grandchildren than the dornish ones.

The fact that there was a King's party and a Prince's party won't have escaped Dorne's notice.

I have the feeling Lewyn was in constant conmmunication with Doran, and they knew every step of Rhaegar, and he didn't believe R would make such thing.

[PrettyPig]

Let me point something out about how I think you can discern information from the books.

At one point the book tells us that late in Tywins career as hand Aerys did not trust him. Which I believe, and that Aerys kept him around to humiliate him. Which I agree also that he did. But it goes into pointing out how Aerys was not thinking things through. Like with Jaime, Aerys was seeking instant gratification. He was playing the short game. This will show Tywin. I'll insult him his family his wife, what have you. But it was always the short game. But we see how it does not work out for him. He places Jaime in the KG only to later realize he just placed Tywins son right next to him with a sword. He was not able to think things out. Tywin on the other hand has always played the long game.

Tywin is said to have asked to quit as hand. Did he mean it? Or was this part of his long game as well. The book informs us that after a time no matter what Tywin said to Aerys, Aerys would think the opposite. If Tywin suggested something, Aerys would go in the opposite direction. Well that totally works out to Tywins favor. "Your grace Rhaegar loves you and would never betray" Something like that would easily drive Aerys into paranoia. It makes Tywin look great cause publicly he saying the right things, but he gets the results he wants driviing Aerys towards self destructing. Now that is from the book and that is a hell of a tool for Tywin to ignore. Because I don't think he would ignore it, that serves everything he likes to do. And it plays into Tywins long game and that's what I mean when I he could play Aerys off Rhaegar. In turn he could be going to Rhaegar saying see how irrational your father we must dispose him for the good of the Kingdom.

It works out to well, Tywin looks great on both ends and Rhaegar and Aerys are pitted against the other. Tywin could easily manipulate both this way. Given the book points out that this is how Aerys worked with Tywin later on and that Tywin used it. One conclusion would seem to lead to the other.

Invite the other LPs of the Stark/Tully/Arryn/Baratheon clans to your backstabbing party, rest on your haunches at Casterly Rock, and watch the fun play out. All without lifting a finger.....until it's time to ensure your rival's heirs don't see their next birthdays, anyway.

[Avalatis]

Ok first off nobody is saying Tywin is responsible for every big betrayal in Westeros, but his hands are dirty all over the place. It's the game of thrones. LF has his stuff, Varys his, the Tyrells are working there angles. No he does not have to be alive as none of the people he betrayed are alive. But given the info in the new book it would appear that Tywin had his hands in things and was playing the two off eachother. You also have to include the human factor because it will not be a perfect plan, things will get sloppy, that's the human factor, and that regularly happens.

You know he knew Elia for years and she never did him a wrong as far as we know. But he had no problem having her and her kids offed to improve his position. That's what you are dealing with, and the fact is he is very much the type to plot and betray.

I am not saying it's just Tywin, in fact I wrote that it is probably multi faceted with multiple houses plotting in their best interest. I say this because for the entire series that's been exactly what they do. I am not saying that everything that happened if because of Tywin, but in the part we are discussing I would implicate him. I am implicating him. Not to say other people didn't do stuff, it's just that is who I am focusing on at this time. You know Rhaegar and Aerys both have there hands in it as well.

I don't think over generalizing the discussion helps, and yeah I am using conjecture, applied supposition, and some assumptions as well as facts. But I have to because that is how the books are written.

Like bog reveal about Jon' parents when it happens, is not going to be Jon talking to his parents, cause they dead. Won't make it any less impactful.

I didn't "over generalize" the discussion. I was pointing out that it would have minimal impact on the story. Having a reveal after Tywin died about him causing a fallout in the Targaren family seems poorly timed. PrettyPig gave a valid reply that it could still impact the Lannister Characters in a important way. Tywin already has a lot going for his character. I feel that another character being behind the fallout (like Vary's) would have a greater impact on the reader/story than piling more onto Tywin's plate.

I guess my point is that if you're going to "reveal" a political conspiracy you want it to be relevant to the current story and/or current characters.

[Avalatis]

Here's my opinion:

The 3KGs received news of the sack and on top of that (maybe have) received the news that Aerys named Viserys as heir and sent him to Dragonstone.

1. Due to the fog of war, they refused to believe that Viserys was named heir, as in people spreading false report for evil intent to draw out the remaining 3KGs in the open.

or..

2. Upon hearing it, they believe that Aerys did not have full information that Rhaegar have another son (Jon, who is legitimate since with them is Aerys' seal of R+L marriage document). And thus they played the game of throne, but in full intent of good to the Targaryen dynasty.

When Ned brought up about they should go to Prince Viserys to Dragonstone, Hightower explained that they swore a vow, to protect who is now their king, Jon, the true heir to the throne.

1 definitely seems likely. Someone else brought up that the narrative we're getting about Viserys being named heir could be false. Though I don't see why they would need to make that up.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

At one point the book tells us that late in Tywins career as hand Aerys did not trust him. Which I believe, and that Aerys kept him around to humiliate him. Which I agree also that he did. But it goes into pointing out how Aerys was not thinking things through. Like with Jaime, Aerys was seeking instant gratification. He was playing the short game. This will show Tywin. I'll insult him his family his wife, what have you. But it was always the short game. But we see how it does not work out for him. He places Jaime in the KG only to later realize he just placed Tywins son right next to him with a sword. He was not able to think things out. Tywin on the other hand has always played the long game.

The book is playing the part of Tywin undeservedly being Aerys's punching bag, which I don't think it's inaccurate, although it mentions little that Tywin actually had it coming.

Not only he said that it didn't matter that Aerys died because Rhaegar would be a better King (something that could have probably offender Rhaegar himself and cause the eventual rupture in his relationship with his father) but he took Cersei with him in case Elia died (again, insulting Rhaegar). So, what did he expected Aerys to do? saying "oh, well, you wanted me dead? no problem, bro... luckily, I survived!". He needed Tywin as Hand, I think Aerys recognised that, but he didn't lose chance to put him in his well deserved place.

Whether Tywin was an instigator on Aerys' later mistrust of Rhaegar, I can't tell, but he definitely could have chosen Rhaegar as King, if it had depended on him, as Rhaegar was more beneficial for him than Aerys. Rhaegar being in good terms with his father, otoh, could mean that he had accepted not naming Tywin as Hand in his eventual reign.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

I have the feeling Lewyn was in constant conmmunication with Doran, and they knew every step of Rhaegar, and he didn't believe R would make such thing.

If Lewyn was truly deeply involved, Doran would most likely know quite a lot.. But everything? Lewyn had sworn vows, perhaps he wasn't allowed to tell it all, no matter how much he wanted to.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

If Lewyn was truly deeply involved, Doran would most likely know quite a lot.. But everything? Lewyn had sworn vows, perhaps he wasn't allowed to tell it all, no matter how much he wanted to.

Indeed. Even if Rhaegar planned something in advance related to Lyanna, he couldn't do more than twist his mouth and obey.

[Ygrain]

1 definitely seems likely. Someone else brought up that the narrative we're getting about Viserys being named heir could be false. Though I don't see why they would need to make that up.

I guess it was me. For one thing, I don't think we should be getting such an information outside the series unless it is meant not to be a game-changer; the second, I think it is probably 20/20 hindsight on the maester's part due to having incomplete information.

Since no character in the series ever mentions Viserys being put ahead of Aegon in the line of succession, it may have been what Aerys intended but it was apparently never proclaimed officially. However, there is this baffling fact that Viserys (very much beloved by Aerys) was sent to safety but the heir, Aegon (half-Dornish, and in Aerys' eyes, the Dornish betrayed Rhaegar on the Trident), is kept in KL, as if he didn't matter. Yandell doesn't know about the wildfire plot (which basically means that no decree changing the succession is necessary because Viserys is going to move ahead, anyway), so he needs an explanation for this seemingly illogical course of action.