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Ygrain

[TWOIAF Spoilers] R+L=J without spoiler tags v.2

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Still slowly making my way through the book. But wanted to point out that Maegor I lost two of his KG, before his death, to Jaehaerys the First because of his cruelty and tyranny. Might be a bit of a nudge that Dayne and Whent (and maybe Martell at that point?) were siding with Rhaegar and his attempts to take down another cruel and despotic king.


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Still slowly making my way through the book. But wanted to point out that Maegor I lost two of his KG, before his death, to Jaehaerys the First because of his cruelty and tyranny. Might be a bit of a nudge that Dayne and Whent (and maybe Martell at that point?) were siding with Rhaegar and his attempts to take down another cruel and despotic king.

This is what I always thought that Selmy might have been referring to in his "playing the GOT" parallels to Dayne and the secrets of the Red Keep, which seems to imply that Rhaegar must have split his time between Dragonstone and KL.

And it was a KG who changed the succession when the Princess dumped him, (or I speculate that Cole was dumped and he was angry).

But the fact that it is the king who decides who gets protection, I always wondered how Dayne and Whent found themselves to be with Rhaegar. And I think Hightower got caught in a semantics trap.

The king should have told him to bring Rhaegar back, and to disregard anything that Rhaegar might order him to do. Because his statement about Aerys would still sit the throne make me think he was not convinced to get rid of Aerys. :dunno:

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On a related note - -

When I read that Egg married Black Betha, a spirited, "some say wilful", lady from the Riverlands (the setting for the 5th D&E novel), I wonder if they two also met in a tourney/situation that required the wrongs to be set to rights.

And you know that GRRM is very deliberate in how he phrases things:

Ned to Arya:

"You will marry a king and rule his castle, and your sons shall be knights and princes and lords."

But on the subject of Lyanna and her nature, I've always suspected that her reaction to Rhaegar was not to swoon, but likely to scrap.

For someone like Rhaegar, I imagine someone treating him like a real person might have been appealing. If she did strike out at him in any confrontation, he would not take her hand as Viserys might, Joffrey would, and Dany, (I don't know what path she is going down, but she did say that if that child had not been stopped, she would have had to cut off his hand).

I imagine his position either isolated him quite a bit, or it made him be surrounded by lackeys with the exception of his own close circle.

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One thing that always confused me was why Rhaegar didn't seem to even try to save Brandon and Rickard ?



At first, I thought that he didn't have time but if Rickard had time to come from the North to KL, I'm sure Rhaegar could also made the journey between the TOJ and KL in time.



So did he just think that there was nothing he could do, or someone told him that the situation was under control or he just didn't care or something?



Since you guys are like the experts here, what do you think happened ?


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Still slowly making my way through the book. But wanted to point out that Maegor I lost two of his KG, before his death, to Jaehaerys the First because of his cruelty and tyranny. Might be a bit of a nudge that Dayne and Whent (and maybe Martell at that point?) were siding with Rhaegar and his attempts to take down another cruel and despotic king.

Agreed on those two but I doubt very much that Hightower would have switched allegiance like that.

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One thing that always confused me was why Rhaegar didn't seem to even try to save Brandon and Rickard ?

At first, I thought that he didn't have time but if Rickard had time to come from the North to KL, I'm sure Rhaegar could also made the journey between the TOJ and KL in time.

So did he just think that there was nothing he could do, or someone told him that the situation was under control or he just didn't care or something?

Since you guys are like the experts here, what do you think happened ?

Rickard was already close by - he was coming to Riverrun to attend Brandon's wedding and Brandon originally went to meet him.

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One thing that always confused me was why Rhaegar didn't seem to even try to save Brandon and Rickard ?

At first, I thought that he didn't have time but if Rickard had time to come from the North to KL, I'm sure Rhaegar could also made the journey between the TOJ and KL in time.

So did he just think that there was nothing he could do, or someone told him that the situation was under control or he just didn't care or something?

Since you guys are like the experts here, what do you think happened ?

LOVE your avatar. :wub:

I just think it comes down to the fact that by the time that Rhaegar found out, it was too late.

I don't know about the time lines, but it may be that Rickards murder could have happened while Rhaegar, Lyanna and company were still enroute to the TOJ.

After finding out, that may have been the deal breaker to go back and make those changes. I can't help but think that news, if Lyanna was told, (which I go back and forth that it might have been kept from her), might have put her in such a state, she may have had to be held under guard with the promise from Rhaegar to do something.

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^ Thanks for the answers Ygrain and Alia. I also thought that he didn't have time to do something but I read somewhere that Rickard came from the North so it didn't make sense to me.






LOVE your avatar. :wub:






Thanks I love it too! ;)


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I have been saying since I first started Reading this book series that something wasn't right about the events that led up to Harrenhal and I have been saying for months that Rheagar stealing Lyanna was a political move and not that of a love sick prince. I've been saying for months that Harrenhal was the grand council and Brandon Showing up at the red keep like he did was political theater he wanted to be arrested! That was all part of the plan. I've also been working on most of the stuff we found out from the book even before the book was out. So it's nice to be vindicated an no longer going to be told I'm a fan boy because I didn't think that Lyanna and Rheagar were stupid. This also puts the whole Elia thing in prespective because I've been saying that something wasn't right why take Lyanna to Dorne of all places unless there was something else going on. Then look at where the tower of Joy is located in the Princes's pass. there is on way that Ned and Howland Reed made it from the tower to starfell without some assistance from the neighboring castles. THe mountains of Dorne know about Jon and are waiting for the right time to strike!



Also did anyone catch that Jon Snow if Rheagar's is related to the Sword of the Morning and Hightower through his Targ heritage but because of the Blackwood bloodline's from both sides of the family tree I'm sure there is some Whent and Tully blood as well. So he and Cat are related. Also the Starks and Arryns are related through blood and I was right that there was something fishy about Jon Arryn fostering Ned Stark but given they are family not so much right.


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I suggest you reread your own original post. Maybe you'll see just how insulting it is. And the one that follows isn't any better. You speak in absolute terms, as if Rhaegar was the ultimate arbiter, and use your own experiences to give an air of objectivity of something that is subjective by its very nature.

You might not have meant it this way but it sounds that of course Rhaegar could not find her attractive because she was "simple", as if being "simple", be it in looks or character, was a fact and true in general. And you're making it sound like she had a flaw - OK, let's say a character flaw - that stopped Rhaegar from loving her. "If Elia was simple..." "If she was uninteresting..." You even used the ridiculous reasoning that even Elia's brothers didn't describe her as beauty queen to claim that she was simple. Yes, Oberyn should have totally waxed rhapsodies about her looks in front of Tyrion and Doran should have done the same while speaking about her. Or have you forgotten that the only times Ned calls Lyanna beautiful is when he thinks of her and when he wants to reassure Arya about her own looks? She was simple, she paled in comparison to Ashara and even more compared to Lyanna - were those not your own words? All in the terms of looks.

Unfortunately, it happens only sometimes? People don't click all the time, no matter how attractive, smart, kind, wild, or whatever they are. I don't see why it should be different for Rhaegar and Elia.

In few words: if only we could love (I mean romantically) someone who we order ourselves to love, but not the ones we can't explain why we fell in love.

There is nothing insulting in my post, unless you take words "simple and uninteresting" to your own account. Which is strange. A little bit. Aren't we discussing a fictional characters?!

Sometimes there is a "click" between people and sometimes there is no such thing whatsoever, no matter how fair, beautiful, stunning the looks of the person is. In my first post I wrote that all of the girls (Elia, Ashara, Cersei,Cat, Lyanna etc) were pretty, all in their own way. And yes,I still believe that Elia was too perfect to be interesting (once again, for Rhaegar). And yes I believe that character matters more than looks in case of love affections. And that's, in my opinion, what happened in the book. There is no flaws in Elia, none at all, and I'm not trying to find any.

"You might not have meant it this way but it sounds that of course Rhaegar could not find her attractive because she was "simple", as if being "simple", be it in looks or character, was a fact and true in general." I presume you didn't understand my point of view here: he probably found her attractive, but he didn't love her and loved Lyanna (both this facts were clearly stated in the books). Word "simple" was chosen by me because I didn't find another suitable word (as I've already told you), once again - not a native speaker. Another word - uninteresting - which describes better what I am trying to say: have you ever loved anyone who you found uninteresting? My point: no matter how perfect someone is, if you don't love him/her you just don't love (at least romantically) and it would be very hard to love despite your heart,. You would lie if you tell that you find that person interesting if you are not actually interested (romantically). In terms of friendship that would work, but in terms of love affections (in other words if there is no "click") - it is very very and very hard (Here I speak out of personal experience, won't tell you the story of my life). I just understand what could happen in the book. I pity Elia, very much and I pity Rhaegar as well.

I'm sorry if that my view offended you somehow.

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But on the subject of Lyanna and her nature, I've always suspected that her reaction to Rhaegar was not to swoon, but likely to scrap.

She swooned a bit, though. :) However, the reality of a possible/imminent abduction and the repercussions of such an act, probably woke "the steel" in her. Put up a fight/run away on her horse? Yes, I can see that.

For someone like Rhaegar, I imagine someone treating him like a real person might have been appealing.

I think this is a modern argument that doesn't hold much value in-universe.

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I have been saying since I first started Reading this book series that something wasn't right about the events that led up to Harrenhal and I have been saying for months that Rheagar stealing Lyanna was a political move and not that of a love sick prince. I've been saying for months that Harrenhal was the grand council and Brandon Showing up at the red keep like he did was political theater he wanted to be arrested! That was all part of the plan. I've also been working on most of the stuff we found out from the book even before the book was out. So it's nice to be vindicated an no longer going to be told I'm a fan boy because I didn't think that Lyanna and Rheagar were stupid. This also puts the whole Elia thing in prespective because I've been saying that something wasn't right why take Lyanna to Dorne of all places unless there was something else going on. Then look at where the tower of Joy is located in the Princes's pass. there is on way that Ned and Howland Reed made it from the tower to starfell without some assistance from the neighboring castles. THe mountains of Dorne know about Jon and are waiting for the right time to strike!

Also did anyone catch that Jon Snow if Rheagar's is related to the Sword of the Morning and Hightower through his Targ heritage but because of the Blackwood bloodline's from both sides of the family tree I'm sure there is some Whent and Tully blood as well. So he and Cat are related. Also the Starks and Arryns are related through blood and I was right that there was something fishy about Jon Arryn fostering Ned Stark but given they are family not so much right.

I believe at the heart of whatever Rhaegar was planning, was conclict. I think he and his father had a love/hate relationship, which of course makes everything much more intense.

I think he was prepared to take steps up to the point he met Lyanna. I think she was the cause of perhaps his plans being derailed.

Certainly Lyanna marrying his cousin, in that sense, marrying into the royal family would guarentee both Berantheon and Stark loyalty, rather than a move to break it up, which we see caused the opposite to happen. Since there were two factions, Rhaegar would have needed his cousin, which at that point, he seemed amicable to Rhaegar, even willing to help unmask tKotLT. And since it was Robert who pursued Lyannas hand and not Rickard going after Robert, the notion that he had any southern ambitions beyond just having some say is unknown at this point, because it still gives Rickard some influence in the kingdom where they had been so isolated before.

And Selmy goes into a detailed litany of all the Targs. who suffered ill-fated relationships that caused the kingdom to burn. And GRRM is as inspired by "conflicts of the heart," as intrigue and politics.

Given what Robert did seem to understand about Lyanna in his statement that Lyanna would have wanted blues skies over her head, rather than buried beneath in the crypts, she doesn't sound like a candidate that would want to play the GOT.

Misc.:

- Rhaegar was the one who named the tower, the TOJ.

- Her name was the last thing on his lips as he died.

I think he thought he could make everything work.

She swooned a bit, though. :) However, the reality of a possible/imminent abduction and the repercussions of such an act, probably woke "the steel" in her. Put up a fight/run away on her horse? Yes, I can see that.

Over the man, or the song? Both? :drool:

For JonCon said that Rhaegar brought everyone to tears- except the men of course.

And when Arya hears the story of the maiden who thew herself from her tower after her prince fell, she is both moved and embarrassed by it.

I think this is a modern argument that doesn't hold much value in-universe.

Really? He doesn't sound like a man who enjoys all the trappings of royalty, or the nature of court. Even as Aerys continued down the path of madness, he waited until he couldn't deny it anymore to do something.

He had only a few close friends, but by and large, none really knew him.

Even Ned, who was more or less "king" (little k), in the north had the habit of inviting a different man, (probably lowborn in comparison), to his dinner table everynight because as he told Arya, a man needed to know why he was willing to die for you.

And not so modern, from Elizabeth Tudor:

- "I do not want a husband who honours me as queen, if he does not love me as a woman."

-" To be a king and wear a crown is a thing more glorious to them that see it than it is pleasant to them that bear it."

It was certainly said of Malilda, Williams the Conquerors wife, and Elizabeth of York, Henry VII's queen, that their presence made those kings much more connected to their humanity, because after they did die, they went off the rails.

And Matilda especially was VERY strong willed.

I think it is modern people who tend to strip historical figures, or our ancestors of their humanity when discussing events rather than delving into their persons and their motivations.

I think we might be disappointed they were not that much different, and actually much smarter than we give them credit for, longing for the same things.

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A little thing that may or may not be of note.



Arthur Dayne has finally entered the story (still reading--slowly--through the Targ kings section). It's very brief, just a little snippet that Danye knighted Ser Jaime. But what's interesting is how Dayne is described. I've noticed that GRRM's Maesters (not just Yandel, but a lot of them) really like the word "puissant" when describing a warrior of unmatched prowess--as most believe Dayne to have been. However, that's not how this Maester describes Ser Arthur. The Maester writes that many considered Dayne to be "the realm's most chivalrous warrior."



I bring this up because normally in RLJ when someone points to Ned thinking that Arthur was the best knight and a shinning example of the KG, detractors will say that Ned meant his prowess in battle. Yet GRRM's Maester isn't using the typical word for a seasoned warrior and thus far none of Arthur's deeds have been discussed--but we did get quite a hefty (and awesome) section on Barry at Duskendale where he really proved his worth against foes. Yet, Ned doesn't think the KG are a shinning example to the world anymore?



Hmm...


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To understand the events of Harrenhal, one needs to break down the who, when, where, why, what.

The easiest to answer would be the year of the false spring the year of 281 a.c.

The next is where, Harrenhal.

What/why: to celebrate that "Spring" had come and welcome a new brother to the Kinguard.

Who: Arranged by house Whent and Rhaegar Targayen

Who was on the guestlist(known list from Meera Reed's story to Bran:SOS):

Under Harren's roof he ate and drank either the wolves, and many of their sworn swords besides, Barrowtown(House Dustin, Lord Williem Dustin) men and Moose( House Hornwood, Halys Hornwood), Bears(Jeor Mormont, and Mermen(House Manderly, Wa. The dragon prince(Rhaegar) sang a song so sad it made the wolf maid sniffle, but when her pup brother teased her for crying she poured wine over his head. A black brother spoke, asking the knights to join the Night's Watch. The Storm lord(Robert) drank don the knight of skull and kisses(Ser Richard Lonmouth, Stormland bannerman, yet was squire and knighted by Rhaegar Targaryen, who became his squire probably at the word of Steffron Baratheon, later to turn spy for Rheagar) in a wine cup war(Robert whom is known to say things in his cups that he would later deny sober (Jamie Lannister). The crannogman saw a maid with laughing purple eyes dance with a white sword(Ser Selmy Barristan)lord of griffins(Jon Connington), a red viper( Oberyn Martel and lastly with the quiet world but other after the wild wolf spoke to her on behalf of a brother too shy to leave his bench.

The whole event at Harrenhal was political theater on Rheagar's part. Starting with getting his enemies at court (Stautron whom isn't really his enemy and Merryweather was more than likely Rheagar's choice for hand as well because of his simple nature while Rheagar plotted he didn't have to worry about Aerys completely ruining the realm) to force Aery's to attend the Tourney. As the book states it wasn't until the Realm saw their monarch were they able to realize that Aerys needed to be removed. They knew he was cruel but only with enemies and many might have thought that the whole crazy talk was because of Tywin trying to usurper power is bad mouthing the king or that its political propaganda. The more I think about Rheagar and his character along with conformation that he was politically masterminding the events before and after Harrenhal has made me really think that Rheagar is in the class of Littlefinger when it comes to political savvyness. The fact that there were some in the realm that actually thought that he crowned Lyanna Stark as an act of Passion and not political manuvoring is pure genius on his part and its a shame that we will never really get to see Rheagar in action except through other's POV or maybe Bran. Whats also intresting is that Rheagar thoughout most of this mess was able to keep his reputation intact. That for the most part many think that he was the tragic fallen hero really speaks to how careful he was with his reputaion and his actions leading up to him taking Lyanna Stark. That people still remember him fondly or think he would have made a great king speak in of itself to what type of person Rheagar really was and that he like Littlefinger is able to keep his hands clean!

1)By having the master of laws want to place a ban Tourney's and its Pycell whom makes mention that this would cause even more hatred. Nor could he just let the possible rebel's meet. Was Rheagar's way of pulling the strings behind the scene while forcing the kings hand to have to attend the said tourney to stop the plotting. The true genius of the Tourney is that with all of the confusion Rheagar and his supporters can't be watched at all times allowing them to plot in peace without arousing attention. Anybody who read harry potter knows its easier to plot in a crowded place than private where you can be overheard. How much you wanna bet that after the crowning of Lyanna Stark, her brothers eventually got Rheagar before HH's Hearttree and they talked about his plots and reasons for crowing Lyanna like he did ned said that no man can lie before a heart tree I'm even willing to bet it might have even been Rheagar's idea to talk before the tree as he might have known about the tradition while also showing deferrece to the Northen customs. Makes him look good in front of the family and this also allows them to plot insecution from those that might miss use the info.

Also given the tensions between Rhea and father is the perfect time for rebellious lords to try and topple the Targ regime and place a third party candidate in the running for king if things turn to war. Think RL situation Henry Tudor whom had no right to the throne of England. Enter those lords of the Vale, Trident, West, North and Redwynes via their ships that are welcomed anywhere in the realm and their movement would not be noted especially if the merchant ships are refitted into warships! Really puts things into perpective considering why Rheagar choose Lyanna Stark over Cersei Lannister. Remember Rheagar would have met Rickard Stark when he was a child and given that he was very mature for his age I'm sure he took Rickard's measure along with taking stock of what Aemon would have written bout the Starks in general. I'm of the mind that Rheagar was truly a man with a plan and he would have taken stock of his enemies, allies, potietial for making both. With is love of history and reading I'm sure he learned everything he could before acting. Some of his actions suggest that Rheagar was a student of history especially that of the Targ reigns taking note of what worked and what did not.

a)Why a side by side comparison?
Easy it will allow the realm to see the men that they would be either fighting for or overthrowing. So if it comes down to a Grand Council to remove Aerys on the grounds on insanity, its not a decision based on hear say or rumors he's unstable. The realm knows about the events of Duskendale. They know that the king killed an entire family except for one male of that line. That the Hand Tywin Lannister let the king sit in captivity under the terms that if he stormed the gates they would kill the king for 6 months. Now I would like to point out that it was in Tywin's best interest for the King at the time to live as the terms of Cersei's and Rhaegar's marriage hadn't been settled. If the King is killed and the Prince who was at that time was at least 16 or 17 would be able to not only rule in his own name but also be able to choose his own bride. Rhaegar could not only remove Tywin from power but also refuse to marry Cersei all in one swoop. After the events of Duskendale the kings mind as been unsettled to say to the least. Which would explain why he didn't raze the place and let Rhaegar ascend to the t throne. However we find out this is not the case and Tywin was will to risk the king being killed and naming Rheagar as the heir to the throne. So at this time maybe Tywin t hought he could control the young prince or thought he would go along with his advice and wed Cersei. However I think that Tywin's willingness to let the king diw showed the Prince that he was not to be trusted and he was just a stepping stone in Tywin's climb in power. Once they had a child they no longer need Rheagar and could rule through the child and both the prince and king realized this and independently worked to have Tywin removed from office.

b)Then there is the other candidate Robert where's my next drink because last night was such thirsty work Baratheon. Lord for at least 2 years before the events of Harrenhal(I mean that he's no longer constrained by a regency he can rule in his own right) yet he's still hanging in the Vale. One of the few things that we know he did with is status is secure a marriage pact with Lyanna Stark. He's 4 in line for the throne should misfortune or war were to strike. Handsome, winsome personality, charismatic, definitely a charmer and his a ladies man. The type of man that other men would follow makes for a nice figurehead. With the real power being his foster father Jon Arryn. As Jon and Robert are blood at least distantly thru their shared Targaryen heritage, whom better for Robert to make his hand if only Tywin could be removed.

c)Then there is the Dragon Prince Rhaegar Targaryen. Smart, able, a warrior. No signs of instability or the taint. No sister in sight nor any close cousins if was free to wed again a grand prize for any high lords daughter. Not to mention that he's sensitive. Yes he's got a wife but he doesn't have an heir, his wife is said to be weak and sickly. He does have a daughter but she could be used as a marriage piece. There is a the brother Viserys but he's 6 and could also be used to seal an alliance. Aegon isn't a factor as he wasn't born he wasn't conceived until after the events of Harrenhal.

Rhaegar has his hands full he's got to deal with a Mad father/ruler. A large coalition of Lord Paramounts gathering together forming marriage alliances. His wife is sickly and weak. The birth of Rheanys nearly killed her. She spent six months after the birth recuperating. So on the one hand he needs heirs but on the other hand I don't think that he wanted to kill his wife to get those heirs. Better to have her either set aside or wed another woman to get the desired heirs that he needs to complete to dragon heads. It's nothing against Elia it's just that I don't think he would want to overthrow his father only to leave the realm in the hands of Rheanys. This has the makings of another Dance as Rheanys would be his heir but Viserys would be the son of a king and see it as his right to rule as he's the next male in line or if Viserys is dead and he as a son then the son with the pretensions of a crown. So I say no once again better to have Elia set aside. She very well could become a septa and it wouldn't interfere with Rheanys and her inheritance. Aegon IV's wife wanted to enter the faith after she had given him an heir he denied her but at least there is a precedence.

So there are the three candidates for the throne of Westeros.


Now on the surface the Tourney looks innocent enough. It's purpose is to be joyful because spring has come, winter is done.... The location Harrenhal is perfect as it's centrally located, close enough to King's Landing that the King should feel comfortable enough to come. Large enough to accommodate such a large host. The Whent's are on good terms with the royal family as Oswell Whent is a member of the Kinguard. It shows off the wealth and prestige of house Whent and the favor that they curry with the King and the royal family. That it's an honor that the royal family would attend such an event, that they would have Jamie Lannister join the Kinguard at their home. Is all a sham!!!

2)Now let's look even deeper, Oswell Whent is a trusted member of the Kinguard but his loyalty its appears was to the Dragon Prince and not the Dragon King. It was Oswell and Arthur that Rhaegar original took with him to kidnap/pick-up Lyanna Stark. (b)Minisa Whent is/was married to Hosteen Tully. So all of the Hosteen's brood are related to the Whent's by blood.(keep this in mind while I continue with the analysis.)

Let's look at a tactical look at Harrenhal for a second. As I've pointed out it's centrally located allowing an army to deploy anywhere in the realm and if one had the ships to deployed anywhere with ease. It sit in the rear of King Landing any army that attacks the Capital has to deal with Harrenhal or have it as an ally or fear having themselves taken in the rear. As Tywin Lannister proved to Stannis during the Battle of the Blackwater. It's large enough that it can house a sizable host, it's lands are broad and rich enough that it should be able to host a large army for some time.

Now my hypotithes is that during that visit that Ser Barristan talks about in Dance that Whent took is when he talked about the marriages that were being arranged in the realm. That Lysa was to be wed to Jamie Lannister, Catelyn Tully was to wed Brandon Stark. While Robert Baratheon has proposed a match between himself and Lyanna Stark. While Hosteen is proposing a match between his brother Bryrden to Beth Redwyne. Now before I continue with this I would first like to take a look at the tactical advantage of having Riverrun.

Riverrun has to the north the Tumblestone, to the south the Red Folk and to the east the Trident. It's western wall is to the land. When properly garrisoned it could withstand a siege of 2 years and a garrison of 200 is considered large. It's can raise it's western wall to make it's self an island. Because it sit right at the mouth of the Trident and then splits into the Tumblestone that runs all the way into the West, and could allow an army to by pass the Gold Tooth Completely. While that access to the Red Folk would allow another army to swing around Deep Den and give an army access to the southern region of the West or allow an army to take the Gold Tooth from the rear and sack the castle. Yet I digress I'll get back that the part.

Out of the two castles that I've mentioned gives an army total access to Westeros. Complete mobility, swift action for ground troops, or if one had the (long)ships, one could move anywhere with speed. Yet it looks like they may have be on opposite sides of this war. Now the need for the Redwyne ships starting to make sense?

3)Now let's look at what these marriages could have meant for the realm it things turn to war.

Tywin and the gold of Casterly Rock can provide information on streght of the treasury, while being able to counter act that said wealth with wealth of the west. Deploy troops from Crakenhal and Silverhill from the north of Highgarden to bottle them in the castle. When they call for help have your ships come up from the rear to take their supporters an awares. This is going to leave Highgarden to deal with its own problems and too far away from the Capital to be of much use.

Hosteen can provide Riverrun which is a strategic castle that is neutrally located within the realm. It can act as a barrier to the entrance to the West as well as a buffer for troops moving from the west. Having control of the Twins allows Rickards army to move south. The twins is nicely positioned that it can help link up arms from Seaguard from the west, the north and any arms coming from such castles from the Vales as Strong Song. As Robb did they can leave a heavy garrison their to cut off any retreat by the enemy that way or block the entrance to the neck if the Northern Armies have to retreat.

Rickard and the North can provide the extra military strength. Well sealing himself to the alliance with marriage between the new king and Lyanna Stark. He gets to scratch that southron ambition itch and gets his daughter a queen with her heirs on the throne.

While the marriage into the Redwyne gives this alliance access to ships. Not just any ships merchant ships. These ships can go anywhere in the realm without raising suspicion because their suppose to travel to sell that famous Redwyne wine. Not to mention they have contacts all over the world. Dispatching part of their fleet to gather sell swords. OR they could be used to create a bottle neck between the Redwyne Straights and Oldtown. From there sack the shields. To finalize the assault without bloodshed come to terms with the Florents about Highgarden and their superior claim. That gives you a strong ally at your back and that can cut off a retreat by Highgarden down the Mander.

Then there is Storm's End and it's troops, they could be used in one of two ways. One they could be used to bottle Dorne in Dorne. Keeping them active in the Dornish marshes restricting their movements as there's the choke point created by the Redwyne fleet. Nor do they have the naval strength to launch troops to KL. Especially if the Vale gets involved and uses Maidenpoole as a launch place and closes the gullet of the Blackwater Bay (as in the Princess and the Queen with the Sea Snake's fleet.) That's still leaving the Capital very naked and there's no help in sight as all of the crowns allies are dealing with rebels. OR the Stormland troops can be used to creep through the Kingswood forest and then strike at KL.

4) Rheagar(in around bout way with keeping his hands clean) got his father to name Jamie Lannister to the Kinguard. Aerys was already looking for a way to remove Tywin from office. By naming Jamie its now Tywin's decision to leave to office of hand. By he still has an eye and ear at court through Pycelle and that' why I think that it was to Tywin that Rheagar turned to when he needed funds to host the Tourney. Rheagar being the smart politician he is would know why spend your own money when you can spend someone else. Nor could he use his own funds because such things would be watched which is why none of Rheagar's enemies could find the proof that he was backing the Tourney as he was using Tywin's funds. The fact that Rheagar that engineered Jamie's appointment is a forgone conclution in my mind given that it was Cersei that convinced him(with Queen Rhaella's blessing of course), Arthur Dayne took Jamie under his wing after Aerys refused Rheagar's services. This would be a great honor to house Lannister and Jamie as part of the knight's rep dirves from the man that knighted him. The Sword of the Morning knighting the Lion of Lannister is the start of the stuff of legends which is what Tywin wanted. Gerold Hightower appoving the appointment even after we know he didn't want Jamie. Lastly the timely death of the sleeping lion, maybe Pycelle thinking to please Rheagar had him killed.Or the Mad King's orders to free the spot of the KG so that he can name Jamie to the guard. I'm more inclined to believe that this was the act of the king and not the prince as I think that the prince used the vacancy to get his mother to talk to Cersei and then Dayne to work on Hightower to get his approval for the appointment. I don't think he caused the situation but he used the situation to is advantage.

a)This is part of the reason's the men surrounding Aerys never directly blamed for the Tourney. Not to mention that during Duskendale Tywin made the statement that Rheagar would make a better choice in King. By removing Aerys and backing Rheagar call the wrongs done to house Lannister by House Targaryen could be addressed by Rheagar. He could remove Jamie from KG service, he could set Elia aside and wed Cersei while also renaming him as Hand. He's got every reason to want to support Rheagar not to mention he wasn't there but by rights he should have been there to see his son invest with the 'honor' of the white cloak. So Tywin was definitly funding this little interpres and I wouldn't discount some help from Dorne and the Reach as well.

5)So what is a shiny dragon prince to do when looking at those odds. Stack the deck!

That's just some of the damage that those marriage could do if not checked.

The first move have Jamie Lannister named to the Kinguard.

Now you may ask how does that help Rhaegar's cause. It's this very action that sent Tywin Lannister running for the hills and made sure that he wouldn't help the rebels or the loyalist. Exactly.

By having Jamie named to the KG it makes sure that Tywin would be life long enemy of Aerys because not only has he spurred his daughter but now he's deprived him of his heir. Not to mention that it was Cersei that mentioned the KG to Jamie. Yeah the same Cersei that is in love with the prince that, has a prophecy that she's to be queen. That if Rhaella asked her to mention that Jamie such a strong young man, to be named a knight at such a young age and by such a renowned knight as the Sword in the Morning. How much it would put her mind at ease to if someone like her brother was protecting her son against his enemies. Cersei would think it was her lucky day she would get to have not only Rhaegar her shiny prince but her other half Jamie by her side. She would jump at the chance to serve the queen and her own self interest.

Getting Jamie knighted was no problem as he was knighted and in the company of his best friend Dayne so that's not an issue.

Now getting Gerold on board. Now at this time he would be like Selmy's age and if he's as dutiful as he's made out to be he would be looking to the future. Knowing that's not going to live forever, I'm thinking that he was grooming Dayne for the position of LC as that's only natural that Rhaegar would name his best friend to the post when the time came. So I'm thinking he left the choice up to Dayne as Selmy and Tyrion reflect the neither Hightower nor Barristan wanted him in the guard. They thought him too green before the Kingslaying and after that the had no honor. So there's that.

Yet this also, forces the king to leave the Red Keep and stand before the realm. The perfect opputnity to show the realm just how unstable the king really was. This also allows Rhaegar to plan some seeds as Jamie's being appointed to the Aerys's Kinguard it would only be proper and a great honor for the king to bestir himself from the Red Keep to be there when Jamie gets his cloak.

b) Host a tourney to act as an informal GC to hear to woes of the realm, sway some support from Robert to himself, show that the king is a mad man, provoke a couple of instances where Aerys looks and sounds crazy. Like the KotLT or competing in the Tourney which was a mark against Aerys and Robert both. Remember Rheagar already has a rep as a warrior, the Tourney of Lannisport proves that and the Tounney of Storms' End. He also has a rep of not really entering into tourney and neither does Robert. Bloodraven made the statement that men like their kings fearless and stupid. So Rheagar had to play the part of the strapping warrior. Yet he also showed other sides of himself at the Tourney. At the opening feast he shows that he's a singer. That he's just some sad prince that likes to sing songs and no threat. That's the first impression that he gives those at Harrenhal of his character. He appealed not to the men of the realm but the women given Lyanna Stark' reaction to his song crying and all that. I'm also sure that Lyanna wasn't the only female that was effected that night. So what happens when these women are alone with their men folk that night and talk turns to the dragon prince? Well more than like the women speak with affection and of liking him. Just like GRRM showed with Cat and Ned, that the whole saying behind every great man is a great woman. Well these same women that are moved by the prince and his singing will push their husbands to support the prince.

c) Then the next day in the list he dominate all of the competition leaving no question in the minds of his men of the realm that he is a warrior and worthy of their respect for those lords and commons that martial display is needed to prove being a good king. While this also shows up his competition with Robert and those lords that might be inclined to support Robert because of his reputation for being a warrior of the top echelon. As Robert is known not to be of the Tourney Jousting type.

6) Rheagar's next task was to topple Robert's support and go directly for those that surronded themselves with Robert and might want to oppose if family by placing the crown on Robert's head. So he had to start wheeling and dealing with the Arryn's and Stark bannermen.This is a consolidation to Tywin as he gets his heir back, avoids bloodshed, wasting money even if his daughter never becomes queen. That's problem number one solved. Next on the list remove Roberts political powerbase Jon Arryn. Now as you may have notice Jon Arryn while he's fostered both the Spare to Winterfell, the lord of Storm's End and a claimant to the throne. He's been behind the scenes molding Robert into a puppet king. While making sure that he and his heir's hands are clean. Jon is a widower and could still sire an heir, his own nephew and recognized heir wasn't involved in these marriages. It's like Jon wanted to be behind the scenes but makes sure that if he got caught he was safe. He can plead that he had no involvement as he and the Vale aren't involved in these marriages. Yet if Jon doesn't want to be involved in the marriage scheme then what's his angle? He wants power. Well if Rhaegar can get Jon on his side under his regime he can give him all the power he would want without spilling a drop of blood. All Jon has to do is when the Grand Council comes into play side with him over his father. As the handship would be up for grabs as Tywin as vacated the post, he can't very well get mad or hold a grudge if Rhaegar named Jon as his Hand. Tywin left on his own violition because of something that the mad king did. While Rhaegar is the good guy that gave him back his heir, whom he can now groom under his eye to rule back at Casterly Rock far from the throne or any real power. While also asking that as his new hand to support the decision about the fate of Elia and a new wife. This takes care of Robert's political mastermind and turned him into his own. Weakening his competition while strengthen himself at the same time.(Tywin also can't expose himself has having had a hand in funding the tourney as it would make look desprete for power and ungrateful to have his heir back not be stuck with the whoring half man that might be Aerys's son. Another last laugh from the mad king making his son heir to Casterly Rock over the rightful heir Jamie what better way to privately humilate Tywin and publicly?)

7)Now to cause some havoc in Robert's own home territory. That's where Ashara Dayne comes in. Wed her to Robert's bannerman Jon Connington, should it come to war. Jon and those lords that rebelled against Robert ban together along with the Daynes, to attack Sun Spear, while using the Yronwoods to join their strength to Jon's in the Stromlands forces Robert to have to stay in Stormlands instead of marching an army on the capital or leading troops to cut of any Dornish help the crown could expect.

8)The Kidnapping was staged, it was a Trojan horse move to get the Northern contingency inside of the Capital without raising the king's suspicions.
This is where Brandon Stark and his headstrong nature actually works for Rhaegar. In one move he can get the Winterfell heir on his side and get an inside party inside of the capital. Let Brandon go to the Capital "on the grounds" that Rhaegar kidnapped his sister and that he wasn't to do battle for her back. He wanted to be arrested. This gets the northern lords and trident lords in the capital. The trident lords are there to "act as witness" of the trials and answer to any possible treasons. It was away for Robert to politically and publically save face. Not having to be faced with the fact that Lyanna would rather be with the prince than him it saves his ego or would have for most men.

1)The timing was prefect right before the wedding to Tully.
2)Gets Rickard and company in the Capital
3)Gives the rest of the realm even more reason to remove the King. If Brandon's arrest was made to seem unwarranted. It's only those that were in the castle that know that Brandon was calling for Rhaegar to come out to die
4)Gives a more plausible reason for why they were there and why he would be so stupid

I think if things had gone to plan and Rhaegar got back to the Capital before the King called for their deaths. This removes the need for Brandon to wed Hosteen Tully's daughter that by Lady Dustin's account he didn't even want her.

With a regime change the need for the marriage is removed, and removing the need for Riverrun. The king (Rhaegar) could set the betrothal contract off the table, while also removing the future threat that a Tully/Stark alliance could present. All the while doing his brother-in- law a solid favor by getting him out of a marriage he didn't want.

This fits as Hosteen thought that it was crazy that he went rushing off to the Capital. Here's how you keep things all good, offer Hosteen a seat on the council as master of laws, a marriage between Delana Florent and Edmure Tully and Catelyn Tully and Jamie Lannister. An ally with the Lannisters is a closer ally than the north. His daughter becomes Lady of Casterly Rock and to appease Walder Frey a marriage between one of Walder's sons and Lysa Tully. This gets good will with Walder, gets him as an ally. Walder gets to prove his loyalty to the crown as they were involved in the second Blackfyre rebellion. On the crowns part its a show of good faith and good will of royal favor. Like Tyrion said a good lord never lets blood get in the way of ambition and as Lysa is soiled goods a Frey is a pretty good catch. Hosteen also doesn't strike me as the type of man to let a marriage get in the way of advancing his family and getting on the good side of the new Targaryen regime.

Eddard "Ned" Stark is the key to the whole Northern alliance or scheme. He was fostered in the Vale, close friends with Robert, has the ear of both Jon Arryn and Robert Baratheon. Most likely being groomed by Rickard and Jon to act as a liaison between Robert and Brandon. Given his cooler head and quiet nature would act as a counterbalance to Brandon's rasher nature and Robert's more blacker moods. He's also close with his little sister Lyanna. Last but not least he's an honest man. More than likely Ned's reputation as being honest wasn't earned overnight. In this alliance of Jon and Rickard's Ned is the future he's the glue that holds this whole thing together. This is where Ashara Dayne becomes the key to this whole enterprise. Now from what we know it seems as if the too dance together after Ned asked his brother to ask her. We learn from Cat, Ayra(thru Ned Dayne) and Selmy that something more may have transpired between Ned Stark and Lady Ashara. Now I am no means saying that Arthur or Rhaegar were pimping her out but I am suggesting that they asked her to be extra nice or flirtatious with Ned. Arthur could hardly object to a match being made between the two as Ned's unattached and so is his sister, he's got powerful family and connections, brother to lord of winterfell, friend to the lord of the Vale and Storm's End, brother to the possible future Queen of Westeros. So on paper Ned's a good catch for an ambitious family. Did I fail to mention that his family is rich, comes from a line that is the second oldest male line in Westeros next to the Daynes, descendent from kings and his families territories is as big as all the other territories combined.

The crowning was a political statement to Rickard and Tywin. That he's serious about needing a new wife and that Lyanna was his choice. To Tywin that if Cersei was there it could have been her. While the choice of bride is all politically motivated its also about her bloodlines. Arryn(through Royce), Blackwood(has Targ blood as well as the Royces), Blood of the old Gardener kings(Manderly), as wells the trident kings through the Blackwood/Bracken bloodlines. While being connected to the ironborn through the marriage to house Flint, amazing horse riders and previous kings the Rysers. Giants blood through the Umbers and being the blood of the last Warg Kings daughter. It was her magical bloodlines as well as being related to the powerful northern lord Paramount, and the blood of first men is what attracted Rheagar to Lyanna Stark. Her being pretty was an added bonus.

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I mean, I think that the likeliest explanation was that the section was re-written after Robert's death to make it even more pro-Lannister. But the "different parchment" idea could imply someone else's hand altogether, that's all I was thinking. But really I can't think of how making a false claim that Viserys was heir actually changes anything for anyone in-world (though it may for us readers, hence all this discussion!).

" far be it for me to offend those who yet live by presenting an imperfect summary of events, or mistakenly praising those who have since proved unworthy." -- I'd say that's a pretty clear indication it was re-written after Ned's arrest to play down his importance.

As to Viserys, the text is "his younger son and new heir". The word new seems important here; as Viserys was around 7 at the time, it implies something changed to make him Aerys' heir. This could either be a declaration at that time, or it may be that due to some prior declaration, Viserys became heir on Rhaegar's death -- or possibly just before Rhaegar's death. Maybe the question of inheritance was part of the lever Aerys used to get Rhaegar to go to the Trident?

I think the fact that Rhaegar was planning to call a council after the rebellion was defeated indicates that there WAS a pre-existing question of the inheritance, as that's exactly what previous Grand Councils were called to determine.

I don't really see the objections to there being wide knowledge of Viserys being heir at this point. That it doesn't get mentioned seems consistent with the fact that it wasn't relevant for more than a few days, because when Aegon died, Viserys would have become heir anyway.

Robert: We have to kill that dragonspawn boy, Viserys!

Eddard: He's just a kid. We've won the throne, do you need more?

Robert: Damn it Ned, he's a symbol. He threatens everything, don't you see it?

Eddard: Exile, then. It's really not an issue, Robert. He's got an army of what, one knight, couple of dozen men-at-arms and a small dog with a limp?

Robert: You don't understand. He's the Targaryen heir.

Eddard: Uh, yes. I know.

Robert: No, you don't get it. I just heard. The mad king disinherited Aegon and named him heir. That makes him a threat.

Eddard: Because now the people will rally around him rather than Aegon?

Robert: Exactly.

Eddard: Robert, you know how Aegon is dead?

Robert: Ugly work, but it had to be done.

Eddard: So if Aerys hadn't disinherited him, who would be heir now? Are you expecting Dorne to rise up and attempt to seat a dead baby on the Iron Throne?

Robert: Well... you never know with those Dornishmen.

Eddard: You're weird. You know that right, Robert?

Robert: Don't you understand, Ned? This was my plan all along. If the Targaryen claim stays with Aegon, who's dead, they're stuffed. It was a brilliant plan. Gods damn Aerys for ruining it. I'll give him this, he was cunning. I never expected him to disinherit Aegon. I wonder how he knew.

Eddard: What? Uh Robert, it doesn't work like that. I mean... well, you know how you became Lord when your dad died?

Robert: Exactly! Now you get it. Aegon's dead, so he can't have kids when he grows up.

Eddard: You really are retarded sometimes, Robert.

Robert: You can't speak to me like that! I'm king! Look, I have a crown and everything. Now take the army, and take Dragonstone. That's an order!

Eddard: Did you forget about Storm's End?

Robert: Screw Stannis. Let him suffer a little longer. Maybe that'll teach him not to snitch on me to mum and dad all the time.

Eddard: Your dead mum and dad? Robert, you're not twelve any more. And you're the king, remember?

Robert: Doesn't matter. Stannis is such a mummy's boy. I've had enough of it, Ned! You hear me? Enough. He needs to learn a lesson.

Eddard: So you want me to go to Dragonstone because you're really worried that Aerys disinherited a baby who's dead, and to teach your kid brother not to tell tales on you to your dead parents. I see. And what about Rhaegar? Maybe we should put him on trial for kidnapping Lyanna?

Robert: Ah! See, that's why I keep you around, Ned. I totally forgot about that. I hope he demands a trial by combat, I want to kill him again.

Eddard: And that's why I keep telling you to leave the battle plans to me. You're like a brother to me, Robert. Unfortunately an idiot brother who needs help tying his own shoe laces.

Robert: You can't talk to me like that! You! Old guy. Percy-something!

Pycelle: Pycelle, Your Grace.

Robert: That's right. Purcell. Purcell, tell him he can't speak to me like that!

Pycelle: Um... um... uh...You can't speak to him like that, My Lord. Please don't hit me.

Eddard: That's it. I'm going to lift the siege at Storm's End.

Robert: Dragonstone!

Eddard: Yes, yes, fine. Whatever. I'm going to lift the siege at Dragonstone, and kill the little kid so that the dead baby becomes heir again.

Robert: Ah! I knew you'd see sense in the end Ned. Good man.

Eddard: I hate you Robert. You know that?

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....

Robert: Don't you understand, Ned? This was my plan all along. If the Targaryen claim stays with Aegon, who's dead, they're stuffed. It was a brilliant plan. Gods damn Aerys for ruining it. I'll give him this, he was cunning. I never expected him to disinherit Aegon. I wonder how he knew.

....

:lol:

that was brilliant!

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Regarding the "Viserys named heir" issue, I just remembered that Ran stated here the following:

So, the idea was to flag even more explicitly the fact that there is tampering with the history, in this case going beyond the idea that Yandel is drawing upon biased sources to suggest that someone else may have actually slipped in an alternate account.

Not sure, though, if Ran's statement can also be taken to refer to the section "The End," in which we get the Viserys info, which is technically separate from the "Robert's Rebellion" section.

I believe this was in reference to the murders of Elia, Aegon and Rhaenys.

I have been saying since I first started Reading this book series that something wasn't right about the events that led up to Harrenhal and I have been saying for months that Rheagar stealing Lyanna was a political move and not that of a love sick prince. I've been saying for months that Harrenhal was the grand council and Brandon Showing up at the red keep like he did was political theater he wanted to be arrested! That was all part of the plan. I've also been working on most of the stuff we found out from the book even before the book was out. So it's nice to be vindicated an no longer going to be told I'm a fan boy because I didn't think that Lyanna and Rheagar were stupid. This also puts the whole Elia thing in prespective because I've been saying that something wasn't right why take Lyanna to Dorne of all places unless there was something else going on. Then look at where the tower of Joy is located in the Princes's pass. there is on way that Ned and Howland Reed made it from the tower to starfell without some assistance from the neighboring castles. THe mountains of Dorne know about Jon and are waiting for the right time to strike!

Also did anyone catch that Jon Snow if Rheagar's is related to the Sword of the Morning and Hightower through his Targ heritage but because of the Blackwood bloodline's from both sides of the family tree I'm sure there is some Whent and Tully blood as well. So he and Cat are related. Also the Starks and Arryns are related through blood and I was right that there was something fishy about Jon Arryn fostering Ned Stark but given they are family not so much right.

So, basically you've been saying a bunch of stuff for months now that was already known (HH was a grand council, something wasn't right, etc. -- mind blowing!), and now that the book is out, you're here to tell us that it confirms a bunch of stuff you were working on. Okay. Did you happen to post any of this stuff you were working on before the book came out?

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I believe this was in reference to the murders of Elia, Aegon and Rhaenys.

Well, it was sort of, but also to the more general question of Yandel's slant. But perhaps you're right, and the reason that we got a page removed and a new one inserted was that maybe the version written for Robert actually ascribed the murder of those three to Tywin's men, and once Robert was dead it made sense to completely remove any reference to that possibility, now that the Lannisters have the power. I'm not saying that Robert is some sort of stickler for historical accuracy or something, but I imagine even he would have found the suggestion that Elia killed her own children too "out there" to be included in the history.

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I was floating the idea around and talked about it with a couple of other posters if you don't believe me. Most of my second post was written before the book was released. Go to the first Southorn Ambitions(Modesty Lannister made the thread) and check out what I was sayin about the alliance pretty much what I was saying in my second post only the one in this thread I've expounded and gone into detail now that I have the text to back me up. Ive also had this conversation with Modesty Lannister and Lady Woodland. I'm not making this up and ask them or check out the thread it's closed and second one is up. I don't have to say I was thinking this even before the new book, if I didn't I wouldn't say it. I have this nasty habit about being right and well I want the world to know I was right.


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I was floating the idea around and talked about it with a couple of other posters if you don't believe me. Most of my second post was written before the book was released. Go to the first Southorn Ambitions(Modesty Lannister made the thread) and check out what I was sayin about the alliance pretty much what I was saying in my second post only the one in this thread I've expounded and gone into detail now that I have the text to back me up. Ive also had this conversation with Modesty Lannister and Lady Woodland. I'm not making this up and ask them or check out the thread it's closed and second one is up. I don't have to say I was thinking this even before the new book, if I didn't I wouldn't say it. I have this nasty habit about being right and well I want the world to know I was right.

My point was that you're claiming credit for stuff everybody already knew. Stuff that was already part of the ASoIaF canon. Exactly which ideas of yours do you think were borne out by the World book?

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