[TWOIAF Spoilers] R+L=J without spoiler tags v.2

[JonCon's Red Beard]

1) The 6 companions Rhaegar set out with were : Dayne, Whent, KG Martell, JonCon, Lonmonth, and Mooton. I think many of us think they eventually split up for different reasons but when they set out, it was with a plan in mind in regards to Aerys.

After reading the whole thread (and more), I think, from the new info, that's the only thing that many of us could completely agree because it's set up to be that way. Whatever Rhaegar's intentions were, political or Lyannish, those six were with him. There is no coincidence that those guys are named and the book speaks of half a dozen (I would even add that they gathered at Darry, but that's my opinion). The marriage and R's intentions, is something that we won't never completely agree until the real information of it, in book, is revealed. So, personally, I don't see the point on even discussing it: it's like the alleged info of Tyrion being Aerys' son. It's there for those who want to see it in that way.

And, I'll add that, as we know the fate of everybody except Lonmouth, he could be very much alive (as Lem, or who knows) and he betrayed Rhaegar, whether intentionally or not. I hope Jon finds him.

"Jon.... my old friend... no! wait! don't kill me! wait!"

"I did my waiting... 12 years of it... In Azkaaaa---- Essos, I mean Essos!!"

"He was going mental... talking about prophecies and shit... What would you have done, Jon?"

"I would have died! I would have died rather than betray my friends, as we would have done for you!"

[Ser Creighton]

Let's see. Off the top of my head

1) The 6 companions Rhaegar set out with were : Dayne, Whent, KG Martell, JonCon, Lonmonth, and Mooton. I think many of us think they eventually split up for different reasons but when they set out, it was with a plan in mind in regards to Aerys.

2) Rhaegar comes across as far more politically savvy than what we were led to believe prior to the world book. (or, at least, not only obsessed with prophecy)

3) Rhaegar was probably the "shadow" organizer at HH

4) And, as always, the marriage of R and L got one more go around, with neither side really budging. The (aborted) Pact of Ice and Fire made a lot of ears perk up, though. As did the secret elopement of Jaehaerys II and his sister, with Egg not dissolving it because of consummation

1. Yeah new there had to be more than those 3 involved. Though are the companions all listed? Any speculation on Brandon being set up? Or receiving bad information?

2. I knew Rhaegar had to be politically capable one of the people he grew up with was in fact Tywin. Also people raised in KL got a much better feel for it's nature. However don't trust the Pycelle letters, they will always be biased towards Tywin. Part of me feels Tywin may have been playing the two against the other. I think the baking at HH is not Rhaegar but a Rhaegar backed Tywin. Which ties into Rhaegar Knighting the Mountain in way. Being one of Tywins men and favors being exchanged.

Why was Cersi brought to KL? We know at that point things were not good around Aerys. So what was Tywin playing at, he makes his moves for a reason and I firmly believe he was out thinking everyone, maybe even himself.

4. As many know I don't believe in the Lyanna/Rhaegar union. However the latest information actually has me leaning in that direction. Not so much because of the new information, but rather the amount of marriage information that Martin has established. It really only serves one story line that I can think of and that is Jon' parents. My own personal belief is that they were now in fact married. Though I believe Martin is putting in all these ways to challenge a marriage in order to create conflicts within lines of succession. That a part of Jon' story will still be the many questions of his legitimacy in order to create conflict within in the realm. Because you know that's what Westeros needs more of, conflict. I also don't think we will get direct answers to the whole story of R+L=J and this will generate further will call it discussion among the fans.

ETA. In the case of Tywin, I am a firm believer that Tywin was for Tywin. If he was playing Rhaegar and Aerys off of each other. His plan may have been to get rid of both, encourage Vis to be named over Rhaegar and then hook up Vis and Cers, rule as regent and later as hand. Tywin had one intrest as far as I can tell, he wanted the power. He may have been going for another Dance, but things backfired and he was adjusting accordingly as he would have to when dealing with a manic paranoid king. Which I think not only Tywin but others were playing off of. I think many were seeking power. There was a crack in the Targaryen armor and many lords looks to exploit it.

For me Tywin backing Rhaegar at HH makes sense and he is not on the scene so not a suspect which is part of a playbook we have seen before in the series. Rhaegar would of been using the crowns coffers far easier for a Master of coin to track that amount of money. But Tywin has his own private accounts and a massive amount of money. It would have to be him, he also spent more than a decade around Rhaegar, and may have been one of his teachers, which would establish trust but that does not make Tywin loyal to him or anyone, he has demonstrated he is loyal to himself and that he will use anyone as a tool including his own children.

You could also draw a parallel to the Marg /Tommen story which was set up by Tywin. In this case Cers/Vis.

[Alia of the knife]

So now that the book has come out, anyone want to fill me in on what's trending with this particular theory. I have the book (hard cover). I am having a little problem with the Aery II section because a lot of it is based off what Pycelle wrote to the Citadel and he has a heavy bias. So I am not really sure what to think so looking for some of the basic new theories that may have popped up in the last few days.

The bolded.

You bring up a good point, and one I think raised before by RT.

Is this book canon? Yes and no.

To the victor go the spoils of war, including history and the way its written, and I think GRRM makes a point of this with the themes of the unreliable narrator due to bias.

We know now that much of what we've been told of Richard the third was based upon Tudor bias, and even Shakespeare was not above it, and its also likley true of Vlad Tepis.

Were they "good" guys?

No, they were more likely a product of their times and experiences. Going Medieval on something, or someone is not said for naught.

This is an exerpt from the book "Queen of the Conqueror" on the life of Matilda, wife of Duke William of Normandy:

"Though he was delighted to find that his wife had kept the duchy in such good order, there were rumors that she had been less than faithful to him. One of the dukes knights, Grimoult du Plessis, what had stayed behind in Normandy during the conquest of England, repeated a tale that Matilda had been sleeping with another man during Williams absence. Enraged, the duke was said to have dragged his wife from her bed and fastened her hair to a horses tail before parading her naked through the streets of Caen. The more detailed accounts attest that she was dragged from the end of Rue de Vaucelles to her husbands abbey, thus crossing the entire town."

And then,

"On their return to the Chateau, William had his wife locked up in a dungeon. Only after Matilda continued to plead her innocence did he eventually agree to restore her. Finally convinced of his wifes fidelity, he wrought a horrific revenge upon the knight who had told him such a scandelous falsehood, ordering his men to hunt him down, and skin him alive with a wooden knife. Grimoults corpse was then quartered by four horses. According to the legend, William kept fragments of the knight's skin under his saddle as a trophy."

"This extraordinary tale is typical of the salacious rumors that were put about by chroniclers sympathetic to the English cause, and there is not reference to any other source."

In actuality, Grimoult du Plessis had been a rebel who fought against William, and would not have been in a position to tell him anything about his wife as he was subsequently captured and imprisoned.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

1. Yeah new there had to be more than those 3 involved. Though are the companions all listed? Any speculation on Brandon being set up? Or receiving bad information?

It says "Rhaegar left with half a dozen men". Before, it's mentioned that among his supporters, were Arthur, Lewyin (and more dornishmen), Lonmouth, Mooton and Connington. Also, suggests that Rhaegar was behind the Tourney of HH, hence, the Whents were somehow on board with his plans. At least Oswell Whent. Considering that history (and app) says that he and Arthur were with Rhaegar when he took Lyanna, It' easy to assume he was part of the group as well.

But while the books hints they left FOR Lyanna, that's quite open. The group could have easily split and only R, W and A continued to Dorne, previously taken Lyanna, while the other group left for KL. Considering that Brandon looked for Rhaegar in KL, despite being of common knowledge that he lived in Dragonstone, I suppose he followed the wrong group after Rhaegar had parted to ToJ.

[UnmaskedLurker]

I dunno that that indicates he was loyal to Aerys over Rhaegar. I think he was just really bothered by the kid he welcomed into the order killing their king. I'm sure Rhaegar's plan involved no harm coming to Aerys, just to remove him from power in all but name. That's what made it so hard. If Rhaegar were less noble he could have just had him killed.

He did not say just that Aerys would still be alive. He said that Aerys would yet sit the Iron Throne. If he were loyal to Rhaegar and intended to set Aerys aside as king, he would not say Aerys would still be on the throne.

[BearQueen87]

1. Yeah new there had to be more than those 3 involved. Though are the companions all listed? Any speculation on Brandon being set up? Or receiving bad information?

I'm not sure about everyone else, but I'm starting to suspect Lonmouth of betraying Rhaegar. If he thought Rhaegar messed up the plans somehow (or if he didn't approve of the part of the plan that involved taking Lyanna) then he might have told Brandon hoping that would put an end to at least the Lyanna aspect . We know Lonmouth and Robert were close (they were drinking together at the tourney, IIRC). And if Lady Gwyn is right that Lem = Lonmouth then he's still "King Robert's man."

[RumHam]

He did not say just that Aerys would still be alive. He said that Aerys would yet sit the Iron Throne. If he were loyal to Rhaegar and intended to set Aerys aside as king, he would not say Aerys would still be on the throne.

Ned is talking about expecting to find him in King's Landing after the Trident. Rhaegar was already dead. Obviously Hightower isn't gonna continue with Rhaegar's plan once Rhaegar is dead.

[Moondancer]

Didn't GRRM confirm that Rhaegar ordered him to stay?

Hi, Alia. :)

"The King's Guards don't get to make up their own orders. They serve the king, they protect the king and the royal family, but they're also bound to obey their orders, and if Prince Rhaegar gave them a certain order, they would do that. They can't say, "No we don't like that order, we'll do something else."

[Ser Creighton]

The bolded.

You bring up a good point, and one I think raised before by RT.

Is this book canon? Yes and no.

To the victor go the spoils of war, including history and the way its written, and I think GRRM makes a point of this with the themes of the unreliable narrator due to bias.

We know now that much of what we've been told of Richard the third was based upon Tudor bias, and even Shakespeare was not above it, and its also likley true of Vlad Tepis.

Were they "good" guys?

No, they were more likely a product of their times and experiences. Going Medieval on something, or someone is not said for naught.

RT?

Yeah I agree and that is basically what I am saying, a lot of what we get in the book is applied supposition and conjecture. And it is suppose to be, I am basically just saying not to take all of it to literally. That it should be studied with a critical eye. I believe there is enough information to discern some truths but not all of them because the authors don't want that. Martin doesn't want that. I have seen people talking about poor Tywin and mean old Aerys, but from what I have read what I think are the actual clues do not seem to indicate that.

It says "Rhaegar left with half a dozen men". Before, it's mentioned that among his supporters, were Arthur, Lewyin (and more dornishmen), Lonmouth, Mooton and Connington. Also, suggests that Rhaegar was behind the Tourney of HH, hence, the Whents were somehow on board with his plans. At least Oswell Whent. Considering that history (and app) says that he and Arthur were with Rhaegar when he took Lyanna, It' easy to assume he was part of the group as well.

But while the books hints they left FOR Lyanna, that's quite open. The group could have easily split and only R, W and A continued to Dorne, previously taken Lyanna, while the other group left for KL. Considering that Brandon looked for Rhaegar in KL, despite being of common knowledge that he lived in Dragonstone, I suppose he followed the wrong group after Rhaegar had parted to ToJ.

The Whents being on board goes back to the books and I don't doubt it, never have. The six though are in question save two of them. Whent and Dayne. Now I don't doubt the names you have given, but I don't see why Lonmouth or Mooton or any would betray Rhaegar. I know Martell probably wouldn't, to much advantage for his house. Through letters Pycelle of course could of betrayed Rhaegar, and that's easy enough to cover up. But maybe is was someone else. What if Tywin had one of his men with Rhaegar, I would look for someone affiliated with Tywin to have been there. Amory and Gregor seem to dimwitted for such a task. So I can't think of who. I think Lonmouth the next most likely if it is that group.

I'm not sure about everyone else, but I'm starting to suspect Lonmouth of betraying Rhaegar. If he thought Rhaegar messed up the plans somehow (or if he didn't approve of the part of the plan that involved taking Lyanna) then he might have told Brandon hoping that would put an end to at least the Lyanna aspect . We know Lonmouth and Robert were close (they were drinking together at the tourney, IIRC). And if Lady Gwyn is right that Lem = Lonmouth then he's still "King Robert's man."

Could be, he is as good a guess as any, but why? Best friend vs. Robert? He grew up with Rhaegar not Robert, though he may have been friends with both. But I am thinking of a more planned betrayal rather than an emotional one where Lonmouth had a change of heart.

Am I the only one that thinks the wording odd in the book that it seemed Rhaegar just happen to stumble upon Lyanna and the fact the author does know where she was taken from but does not mention it, just the distance?

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

RT?

That's me :D I indeed brought that up yesterday.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

The dragon egg placed under Winterfell (as a part of the Pact of Ice and Fire) is Jon.

I'm not referring to symbolism. I'm referring to literal, actual eggs.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

The Whents being on board goes back to the books and I don't doubt it, never have. The six though are in question save two of them. Whent and Dayne. Now I don't doubt the names you have given, but I don't see why Lonmouth or Mooton or any would betray Rhaegar. I know Martell probably wouldn't, to much advantage for his house. Through letters Pycelle of course could of betrayed Rhaegar, and that's easy enough to cover up. But maybe is was someone else. What if Tywin had one of his men with Rhaegar, I would look for someone affiliated with Tywin to have been there. Amory and Gregor seem to dimwitted for such a task. So I can't think of who. I think Lonmouth the next most likely if it is that group.

The thing with Lonmouth is that his name isn't even mentioned during the Rebellion. We know they all but Jon died, and we know how they died: defending the Targaryens. Where the f was Richard? My options would be:

1. He died. Very probable, tbh, but narratively unlikely. He's mentioned during Meera's tale, and everybody mentioned there has been somehow important. I don't think it's a coincidence that he's seen in good terms with Robert.

2. He didn't died but realised later that he would rather support Robert.

3. He wasn't involved in the Rebellion as a way to protect his family, and seeing what happened to the last Targaryen loyalists (Darrys and Griffins), he decided to leave.

4. He did betray Rhaegar, but never expected him to die, neither his wife and children, and decided to become an exiled, and he's now Lem.

Another thing for me to believe he's a traitor is that he's called "the knight of skulls and kisses". Judas, the world's most known traitor, is also related to a kiss. The kiss he gave Jesus before betraying him.

Am I the only one that thinks the wording odd in the book that it seemed Rhaegar just happen to stumble upon Lyanna and the fact the author does know where she was taken from but does not mention it, just the distance?

I think Rhaegar didn't expect to find Lyanna, he was there for some other reasons. He mentioned they gathered "not ten leagues from harrenhal". We don't know where Darry is located, but we know is very close to Harrenhal. Probably, "not ten leagues". Considering the Darrys were not only Targ loyalists, but a Darry was part of the KG, maybe he, like Whent, got his family's help to support Rhaegar, and the purpose of going there was to plot without Varys being on their backs.

[Ser Creighton]

It's snowing here, it's fucking snowing. Super windy too. Well since I am stuck at home this Halloween, and I have massive amounts of candy. I always by to much, because I am really concerned about running out for the kids and not extra for myself and I never exclude a bag of what I like from the candy bowl.

1 22 oz bad Twizzlers check

1 LB Reese's Lovers assorted candy

1 LB Scare and Share mix Kit Kat more peanut butter cups, Whoppers, Take 5 and Jolly Ranchers.

2 LB MM variety Mix bag.

1 34.5 oz bad (55 Pieces) Snickers, Twix(the cookie crunch) and mixed m&m fun size.

2.16 LB (80 pieces) Nestle fun bag, Nerds, Gobstoppers, Crunch and Butterfingers

4lbs (157 pieces) Starburst, Skittles, Snikkers and M&M fun size

11 oz bag of crunch fun size

2LB Rice Crispy treat variety pack

1 LB payday fun size

3 11.44 oz Blow pops.

What else do I have a taste for, I mean for the children.

[Ser Creighton]

That's me :D I indeed brought that up yesterday.

Hahaha, ok, sorry there are a few RT initials on the the thread, but my first thought was Rhaegar Targaryen, so I was close, well actually my first thought was Rotten Tomatoes but I was like what does that site have to do with this?

[PrettyPig]

1. Yeah new there had to be more than those 3 involved. Though are the companions all listed? Any speculation on Brandon being set up? Or receiving bad information?

2. I knew Rhaegar had to be politically capable one of the people he grew up with was in fact Tywin. Also people raised in KL got a much better feel for it's nature. However don't trust the Pycelle letters, they will always be biased towards Tywin. Part of me feels Tywin may have been playing the two against the other. I think the baking at HH is not Rhaegar but a Rhaegar backed Tywin. Which ties into Rhaegar Knighting the Mountain in way. Being one of Tywins men and favors being exchanged.

Why was Cersi brought to KL? We know at that point things were not good around Aerys. So what was Tywin playing at, he makes his moves for a reason and I firmly believe he was out thinking everyone, maybe even himself.

4. As many know I don't believe in the Lyanna/Rhaegar union. However the latest information actually has me leaning in that direction. Not so much because of the new information, but rather the amount of marriage information that Martin has established. It really only serves one story line that I can think of and that is Jon' parents. My own personal belief is that they were now in fact married. Though I believe Martin is putting in all these ways to challenge a marriage in order to create conflicts within lines of succession. That a part of Jon' story will still be the many questions of his legitimacy in order to create conflict within in the realm. Because you know that's what Westeros needs more of, conflict. I also don't think we will get direct answers to the whole story of R+L=J and this will generate further will call it discussion among the fans.

ETA. In the case of Tywin, I am a firm believer that Tywin was for Tywin. If he was playing Rhaegar and Aerys off of each other. His plan may have been to get rid of both, encourage Vis to be named over Rhaegar and then hook up Vis and Cers, rule as regent and later as hand. Tywin had one intrest as far as I can tell, he wanted the power. He may have been going for another Dance, but things backfired and he was adjusting accordingly as he would have to when dealing with a manic paranoid king. Which I think not only Tywin but others were playing off of. I think many were seeking power. There was a crack in the Targaryen armor and many lords looks to exploit it.

For me Tywin backing Rhaegar at HH makes sense and he is not on the scene so not a suspect which is part of a playbook we have seen before in the series. Rhaegar would of been using the crowns coffers far easier for a Master of coin to track that amount of money. But Tywin has his own private accounts and a massive amount of money. It would have to be him, he also spent more than a decade around Rhaegar, and may have been one of his teachers, which would establish trust but that does not make Tywin loyal to him or anyone, he has demonstrated he is loyal to himself and that he will use anyone as a tool including his own children.

You could also draw a parallel to the Marg /Tommen story which was set up by Tywin. In this case Cers/Vis.

All of the bolded!!!!

I mentioned earlier that I think Rhaegar was betrayed. IMO this all leads back to Tywin. Twyin double-crossed everyone - Rhaegar, Aerys, and the northern lords - in order to maximize his position for the IT. Given the betrothals already in place and the fact that Aerys stripped Tywin of his one viable heir to the throne, the only way he had a shot was to overthrow ALL Targs, jack up the preexisting superbloc by removing many of the players, and marry Cersei to a new king.

I am working out a theory of this crazy multi-faceted backstabbing, but this is where it's going. Tywin Lannister was tired of being second fiddle - a Lannister was going on that throne.

[Alia of the knife]

It's snowing here, it's fucking snowing. Super windy too. Well since I am stuck at home this Halloween, and I have massive amounts of candy. I always by to much, because I am really concerned about running out for the kids and not extra for myself and I never exclude a bag of what I like from the candy bowl.

1 22 oz bad Twizzlers check

1 LB Reese's Lovers assorted candy

1 LB Scare and Share mix Kit Kat more peanut butter cups, Whoppers, Take 5 and Jolly Ranchers.

2 LB MM variety Mix bag.

1 34.5 oz bad (55 Pieces) Snickers, Twix(the cookie crunch) and mixed m&m fun size.

2.16 LB (80 pieces) Nestle fun bag, Nerds, Gobstoppers, Crunch and Butterfingers

4lbs (157 pieces) Starburst, Skittles, Snikkers and M&M fun size

11 oz bag of crunch fun size

2LB Rice Crispy treat variety pack

1 LB payday fun size

3 11.44 oz Blow pops.

What else do I have a taste for, I mean for the children.

Well, at least you have enough to last for the zombie apocalypse.

And it was the fabulous Rhaenys Targaryen who brought the subject up. And like you, I agree there is truth in it, but given Maester Martins love of mystery, its the "where" in the book that you have to find it.

The only place I differ, is Prince Lewyn as I believe Aerys might have had that right.

The Martells and the Dornish were less than enthusiastic in giving their aid, and if Elia and her children had gotten away, probably wouldn't have.

And its cold here too. If only Halloween were in June. :(

[Alia of the knife]

Hi, Alia. :)

"The King's Guards don't get to make up their own orders. They serve the king, they protect the king and the royal family, but they're also bound to obey their orders, and if Prince Rhaegar gave them a certain order, they would do that. They can't say, "No we don't like that order, we'll do something else."

Thanks! :)

[JonCon's Red Beard]

The only place I differ, is Prince Lewyn as I believe Aerys might have had that right.

The Martells and the Dornish were less than enthusiastic in giving their aid, and if Elia and her children had gotten away, probably wouldn't have.

The Martells had every reason to want Aerys gone. Not only insulted Rhaenys (probably in front of the court) and consequently, he insulted Dorne, but as few spoke of disowning Rhaegar, that would mean Elia and her children could also be in danger. I even would say that, once Rhaegar is King, and his son is the heir, they wouldn't mind little if he had wanted one or hundreds of mistresses. Their only priority would be assure Rhaegar's on the throne, and Elia as his Queen. Of course, I suppose they would have never imagined that Rhaegar was going to have a second wife.

...which I also assume Rhaegar knew would cause a distress among their main supporters.

Yet, if they believed on the rumours of Rhaegar running away with Lyanna, I assume they indeed went mad. The question here would be, how much of it Lewyn knew? Because even though is stated that Doran was mad at Rhaegar's behaviour, it could have also been due to Aerys taking Elia as hostage (which was indirectly caused by Rhaegar)

[Ser Creighton]

All of the bolded!!!!

I mentioned earlier that I think Rhaegar was betrayed. IMO this all leads back to Tywin. Twyin double-crossed everyone - Rhaegar, Aerys, and the northern lords - in order to maximize his position for the IT. Given the betrothals already in place and the fact that Aerys stripped Tywin of his one viable heir to the throne, the only way he had a shot was to overthrow ALL Targs, jack up the preexisting superbloc by removing many of the players, and marry Cersei to a new king.

I am working out a theory of this crazy multi-faceted backstabbing, but this is where it's going. Tywin Lannister was tired of being second fiddle - a Lannister was going on that throne.

Agreed though in this series multi-faceted backstabbing is the norm, so I don't feel it's that crazy. LF, Varys or well Tywin, ummm the Tyrells, Frey', Boltons, the Martell'. Yeah no I am totally cool with complex backstabbing in this series. Though one correction, I meant backing not baking. Though Tywin posing as Hot Pie would be funny.

Well, at least you have enough to last for the zombie apocalypse.

And it was the fabulous Rhaenys Targaryen who brought the subject up. And like you, I agree there is truth in it, but given Maester Martins love of mystery, its the "where" in the book that you have to find it.

The only place I differ, is Prince Lewyn as I believe Aerys might have had that right.

The Martells and the Dornish were less than enthusiastic in giving their aid, and if Elia and her children had gotten away, probably wouldn't have.

And its cold here too. If only Halloween were in June. :(

Not enough candy, I need more of the carmel apple Milky Ways, because I already ate them all they only come out this time of the year. Never buy candy to early it goes faster than you think.

Lewyn is another good guess. I might also offer up house Whent, not Oswell so much but maybe his house did something as Tywin could of implicated them. If indeed it was Tywin. Cause I totally think he is dirty.

No, no Halloween in June. To hot and no pretty leaves, earlier in October would be nice though. Like Mid October, or something.

[Ser Creighton]

The Martells had every reason to want Aerys gone. Not only insulted Rhaenys (probably in front of the court) and consequently, he insulted Dorne, but as few spoke of disowning Rhaegar, that would mean Elia and her children could also be in danger. I even would say that, once Rhaegar is King, and his son is the heir, they wouldn't mind little if he had wanted one or hundreds of mistresses. Their only priority would be assure Rhaegar's on the throne, and Elia as his Queen. Of course, I suppose they would have never imagined that Rhaegar was going to have a second wife....which I also assume Rhaegar knew would cause a distress among their main supporters.Yet, if they believed on the rumours of Rhaegar running away with Lyanna, I assume they indeed went mad. The question here would be, how much of it Lewyn knew? Because even though is stated that Doran was mad at Rhaegar's behaviour, it could have also been due to Aerys taking Elia as hostage (which was indirectly caused by Rhaegar)

Could be multi faceted, different houses doing different plots for their own reasons which ends in this perfect Storm known as Roberts rebellion. Which plays well off Martins themes. You know they sort of did it to themselves. He has more than enough material to really nail all the usual suspects. Which should be a theory. Who caused the Rebllion? Keyser Soza. It can be a play in Braavos, and then Arya can kill someone.