Love, Trust, Guilt: Doran's not keeping anything from Arianne

[Chebyshov]

*quotes are under spoiler tags, for length and cleanliness.

On the Perfect Parallel between Doran and Arianne's Arcs, & Why They are in Synchrony by the End of A Dance with Dragons

The Arianne Martell reread project led me to a realization, one that had eluded me in the past: Arianne and Doran Martell have nearly identical character arcs, and are very similar in nature. I wanted to write this essay on the parallelism between the two characters journeys and personalities because I think it is easy to miss. Arianne is a very self-deprecating character, and it's easy to buy into that narrative when reading her chapters, allowing one to view her arc as her learning to listen to her father. In turn, there's many theories about Doran being a master-strategist who is currently manipulating Arianne, or at least keeping information from her still. Before the reread project, I myself was guilty of viewing aspects of Arianne's late-ADWD/TWOW-sample storyline as instances where Doran is testing her. No longer.

This essay seeks to highlight the parallel character paths taken by Arianne and Doran through AFFC/ADWD. Both Martells began their arcs with plans characterized by incorrect assumptions/misinformation about the other. Yet the two have ended in a place of mutual respect, love, and trust, though each with internalized guilt as a result. With this convergence, Arianne and Doran have teamed up and are poised to kick-ass in the next book.

I. Keeping Secrets
At the start of the AFFC we get our first looks at Doran and Arianne, both of whom are in the midst of enacting a plan for justice. Doran is seeking revenge for his sister's brutal murder at the hands of House Lannister. We know that he and Oberyn worked closely over the years for this revenge, yet when AFFC opens, Doran has just learned of his brother's demise. Nonetheless, wheels are in motion. Quentyn has left Westeros at the behest of his father to bring back his family's "heart's desire," while Doran must mitigate the tensions in Dorne following his brothers death until he is ready to begin war.

When we meet up with Arianne, on the other hand, she is in the middle of her plan for own justice: defending her birthright. I will detail this more in Section III, but through reasonable and logical assumptions, Arianne has been lead to believe that for the past decade that her father means to set her aside as the heir to Dorne. She is not about to take that lying down.

She and Doran view their respective schemes as warranted and just.

The planning stage for both Martells, which occurred prior to AFFC, began with extreme caution. We see that both characters kept secrets, obscured details, and waited from the start. I'll be discussing the long-term planning/waiting point in Section IV, but first lets look at how Doran and Arianne are similarly tight-lipped in nature:

Arianne
Arianne reads the incriminating letter from Doran to Quentyn at age 14. When AFFC opens, she is 23. This means that Arianne has had this knowledge about her jeopardized birthright for the past 9 years. And yet no one seems to know. Doran, at the least, is certainly unaware of Arianne's anxiety:

"I want my rights."

"Your rights?"

"Dorne."

"You will have Dorne after I am dead. Are you so anxious to be rid of me?"

"I should turn that question back on you, Father. You have been trying to rid yourself of me for years."

"That is not true."

"No? Shall we ask my brother?"

"Trystane?"

"Quentyn."

I'll be revisiting this moment later on, but because of Doran's evident lack of knowledge, it makes it very likely that Arianne told no one. Had Arianne wanted to confide in someone, it likely would have been Tyene. As she asserts, "Tyene and I are of an age and have been close as sisters since we were little girls. We have no secrets between us."

However, look at Doran's appraisal of Tyene:

"to you, a secret was only a choice tale to whisper to Garin and Tyene in your bed of a night. Garin gossips as only the orphans can, and Tyene keeps nothing from Obara and the Lady Nym. And if they knew... Obara is too fond of wine, and Nym is too close to the Fowler twins. And who might the Fowler twins confide in?"

Tyene would seem to be an inherently flawed confidante, and it is likely that had Arianne told her about the birthright issue, then at the least Oberyn would have heard about it. Besides, given what we know of the Snakes, if Obara thought Doran was going to replace Arianne with Quentyn, presumably over gender, do you think for one second she wouldn't have confronted him?

But no, Doran didn't hear, so it seems reasonable to assume Arianne never told anyone, else there'd be no way to plug that leak. Instead, Arianne kept this secret closely guarded, and even she never approached Doran about it. In fact, she may have been following some of his own advice:

"Words are like arrows, Arianne. Once loosed, you cannot call them back."

Arianne was not about to loosen this accusation until she had a plan to deal with it.

Its also clear that within the Queenmaker Plot (QM), Arianne kept her co-conspirators in the dark about her true intentions for raising the banners. Note how she obscures the issue with Darkstar:

"And what is it I want, ser?"

"The Sand Snakes freed. Vengeance for Oberyn and Elia. Do I know the song? You want a little taste of lion blood."

That, and my birthright. I want Sunspear, and my fathers seat. I want Dorne. "I want justice."

Granted, Darkstar isn't as close to Arianne as her other co-conspirators, but Darkstar's obvious lack of knowledge, coupled with the likelihood of Tyene's ignorance, suggests that the only person Arianne ever told was Arys.

In the case of Arys, Arianne attempts to get him on-board with her plot without telling him her true intention first. In fact, she pulls out every stop in the book. From the reread thread:

<snip>
Post-coitus, Arys feels disgraced and abruptly gets out of bed. Arianne notices that she scratched him during the act, and tries to tend to his wounds. He pulls away from her and says he must go. She then pulls out all stops to get Arys back into bed: at first disparaging his duty, then trying to make his duty kinky, then affirming her own wants, then trying to turn him on with masturbation, then appealing to his ego, then asserting that there's no dishonor in their acts, then outright guilting him by feigning jealousy, then calling him a liar, then asserting loopholes in his vows, then explaining how others have broken the vows and its no big deal, then blaming the system that even put these vows into place, before finally turning the conversation towards Myrcella and her crown.
<snip>

And even after all that, Arianne tries to convince Arys with Myrcella's birthright before finally discussing her own.

In addition to being unforthcoming about her birthright, Arianne also displays a similar reserve when it comes to the logistics of the QM plot; she withholds information when she can:

"Where?" He drew her close and nuzzled at her neck. "Its time you told me the rest of the plan, don't you think?"

She laughed, pushing him away. "No, it's time we rode."

Interestingly, Arianne gets a lot of flak for her inability to keep her mouth shut. This is likely due to Hotah's famous "Someone told. Someone always tells." I'm of the mind that no one told, which is eloquently laid out in this provocative theory, by JonCon's Red Beard. Either way, there's an interesting parallel with the risk surrounding words for Arianne and Doran that Ill explore in depth in Section VII.

What is clear is that based to the text, we see explicit instances of Arianne keeping secrets, obscuring, and prevaricating. I don't think mistrust and reticence were lessons she needed to learn.

Doran
The ability to keep secrets is something we also see in Doran. In fact, Doran is famous for not revealing his plans, to his own detriment. These flippant remarks from the Snakes indicate as much:

What he always does, she [Tyene] purred. Delay, obscure, prevaricate. Oh, no one does that half so well as our brave uncle.

That was praise, Obara Sand insisted. Procrastinate, obscure, prevaricate, dissemble, and delay all you like, Uncle

We also know first-hand that Doran kept Arianne's wedding pact from her for years, 7 of which were past the time he had even planned on telling her:

"The pact was sealed in secret. I meant to tell you when you were old enough... when you came of age, I thought, but..."

"I am three-and-twenty, for seven years a woman grown."

"I know. If I kept you ignorant too long, it was only to protect you. Arianne, your nature..."

In addition to Doran's ability to keep secrets, Doran has a similar penchant to his daughter for telling parties only as much information as is necessary:

" Good", the prince said, "good." He hesitated. "If if certain things should come to pass, I will send word to each of you [sand Snakes]."

...
"Be that as it may, there are things Ellaria does not know and should not know."

II. Similar concessions, similar treatment of others for their plots
Arianne and her father share similarities beyond their reticence. Both are self-sacrificial in nature, and neither are mean-spirited. We do see Doran and Arianne both able to successfully manipulate others, but they do so by asking for help, or appealing to others' senses of compassion, love, or sense of honor. We see these traits exhibited by both characters throughout AFFC and ADWD, but I wanted to call attention to it early, to show the similar personalities and thought-processes between the two are at play.

Arianne
Beginning with self-sacrificial concessions, from the start, Arianne accepts she must marry somebody non-Dornish for her house, accepts it even thinking shell be set aside. All events happen after shes read the letter.

"I know it is my duty to provide an heir for Dorne, I have never been forgetful of that. I would have wed, and gladly, but the matches that you brought to me were insults."

What's notable about Arianne's willingness to marry a non-Dornishman, or to agree to a political marriage at all, is that it's something she accepted having to do even when thinking Doran meant to set her aside. She does try to spin this to her favor, first in her seduction of Renly, and then her failed trip to Highgarden to meet Willas, but had Doran managed to produce a suitor that wasn't an insult, Arianne would have upheld her duty to her family.

Looking more at Arianne's nature, we find that she is quite a kind individual. Her manipulation of Arys is paramount to her plan, yet she never attacks his character, orders him, or belittles his person. She also never uses threats, blackmail, or force to get her way with Arys, or anyone else throughout her chapters.

"I fear for my honor," he said, "and for yours."

"I can tend to my own honor."

"you are not your white cloak, ser"
"I am," Ser Arys said. "I am my cloak. And this must end, for your sake as well as mine. If we should be discovered
Men will think you fortunate."

"Tell me true, ser, is it my dishonor that concerns you, or your own?"

"I swore a vow..."
"... not to wed or father children. Well, I have drunk my moon tea, and you know I cannot marry you." She smiled. "Though I might be persuaded to keep you for my paramour."

Those selected quotes show that while Arianne is combative, or rather, willing to stand up for herself, they're not personal attacks. Her strategy is to find holes in Arys's logic or point out the blatant hypocrisy of his operating oaths, but not to criticize him for his chaste morals or non-Dornish views.

To finally get Arys on board, she appeals to his sense of love and honor, and makes herself seem weak by trembling.

"I am a princess of Dorne," she said in her husky voice, "and it is not meet that you should make me beg."

Ser Arys could smell the perfume in her hair and feel her heart beating as she pressed against him. His body was responding to her closeness, and he did not doubt that she could feel it too. When he put his arms upon her shoulders, he realized she was trembling. "Arianne? My princess? What is it, my love?"

"Must I say it, ser? I am afraid. You call me love, yet you refuse me, when I have most desperate need of you. Is it so wrong of me to want a knight to keep me safe?"

He had never heard her sound so vulnerable. "No," he said, "but you have your fathers guards to keep you safe..."

"It is my fathers guards I fear."

Arianne is appealing to Arys's love for her, and his honorable desire to protect the week. She is not above using people, but will belittle herself more readily than she will use threats or attacks. There is a similar pattern with the others who she manipulates later on (such as Cedra the serving girl), which is keeping with Arianne's ultimately kind and self-sacrificial nature.

Doran
Doran is no different. We see the prince has a similar willingness to make concessions for his familial duties. In the case of his plan, he doesn't send Arianne to Tyrosh as he intended, which would have allowed her to meet Viserys and put wheels in motion much sooner.

"That green-haired girl was the Archons daughter. I was to have sent you to Tyrosh in her place. You would have served the Archon as a cupbearer and met with your betrothed in secret, but your mother threatened to harm herself if I stole another of her children, and I... I could not do that to her."

Out of whatever Doran felt he owed Mellario, he sacrificed a component of his own plan for her, keeping Arianne in Sunspear.

This compassion is also evident in how Doran persuades others, similar to what we see with Arianne. Not to pick on Arys, but we see Doran appeal to his sympathies and honor, just like his daughter would later do herself:

"For if Myrcella should be slain in Dorne whilst under my protection, who would believe my [Doran's]denials?"

"No one shall ever harm Myrcella whilst I live."

"A noble vow," said Doran Martell with a faint smile, "but you are only one man, ser. I had hoped that imprisoning my headstrong nieces would help to calm the waters, but all we've done is drive the roaches back beneath the rushes. Every night I hear them whispering and sharpening their knives."
He is afraid, Ser Arys realized then. Look, his hand is shaking. The Prince of Dorne is terrified. Words failed him.

"My apologies, ser," Prince Doran said. "I am frail and failing, and sometimes... Sunspear wearies me, with its noise and dirt and smells. As soon as my duty allows, I mean to return to the Water Gardens. When I do I shall take Princess Myrcella with me. Before the knight could protest, the prince raised a hand, its knuckles red and swollen. You shall go as well. And her septa, her maids, her guards. Sunspears walls are strong, but beneath them is the shadow city. Even within the castle hundreds come and go each day. The Gardens are my haven. Myrcella will have friends of her own age to play with. She will not be lonely."

"As you say." The prince's words pounded in his head. She will be safe there. Only why had Doran Martell urged him not to write Kings Landing about the move? Myrcella will be safest if no one knows just where she is. Ser Arys had agreed, but what choice did he have?

Here, Doran is disparaging himself rather than pulling rank, threatening, or intimidating Arys. Doran loves to be overlooked in general, so this is in keeping with his nature, but as we just saw, it is a nature he passed on to his daughter.

III. Misunderstanding of each other based on false, yet reasonable assumptions color their plans
Now that we've established a parallel in characterization, lets look at character arcs. Arianne and Doran's relationship prior to the events of AFFC shows that they are operating under false assumptions of each other--assumptions that color and ultimately unravel their plans. Yet neither party is at fault; Arianne's assumptions about Doran are both reasonable and logical, and vice versa.

Arianne
In Arianne's case, the entire motivation for her Queenmaker plot is based on the incorrect concern that Doran means to name Quentyn his heir at set Arianne aside. Though erroneous, she has several sound reasons for thinking this:

"I have known the truth since I was four-and-ten, since the day that I went to my fathers solar to give him a good night kiss, and found him gone. My mother had sent for him, I learned later. He'd left a candle burning. When I went to blow it out, I found a letter lying incomplete beside it, a letter to my brother Quentyn, off at Yronwood. My father told Quentyn that he must do all that his maester and his master-at-arms required of him, because one day you will sit where I sit and rule all Dorne, and a ruler must be strong of mind and body."

Above, this note upon which Arianne stumbles is hardly esoteric; Doran wishing Quentyn to inherit Dorne is blandly stated. In my opinion, this alone is enough evidence for Arianne's fear to be justified.

Yet there's more. Over the years, Arianne has never been presented with a proper suitor, potentially demonstrating that not only does Doran not particularly care about her political future, but he also doesn't care about her happiness:

"You do not know my father. I have been disappointing him since I first arrived in this world without a cock. Half a dozen times he has tried to marry me to toothless greybeards, each more contemptible than the last. He never commanded me to wed them, I grant you, but the offers alone prove how little he regards me."

___

"If you ever felt any love for me at all, why offer me to Walder Frey?"

The second quote especially exhibits that Arianne feels a distinct lack of love from her father due to his actions. To add insult to injury, Doran also relegated Arianne to the party planner of Dorne, indicating that he didn't value her and had no intent to shape her for rule:

"Even so, you are his heir."

"Am I?"

"He left you to rule in Sunspear when he took himself off to his Water Gardens, did he not?"

"To rule? No. He left his cousin Ser Manfrey as castellan, old blind Ricasso as seneschal, his bailiffs to collect duties and taxes for his treasurer Alyse Ladybright to count, his shariffs to police the shadow city, his justiciars to sit in judgment, and Maester Myles to deal with any letters not requiring the princes own attention. Above them all he placed the Red Viper. My charge was feasts and frolics, and the entertainment of distinguished guests. Oberyn would visit the Water Gardens twice a fortnight. Me, he summoned twice a year. I am not the heir my father wants, he has made that plain. Our laws constrain him, but he would sooner have my brother follow him, I know it."

Given these first three pieces of evidence, there's little else Arianne could think other than Quentyn will inherit Dorne and she will be set aside.

Her final operating assumption is fueled by this anxiety. She sees Quentyn acting very shady and sneaking out of Dorne with a suspicious party:

Prince Doran was still pretending that her brother was with Lord Yronwood, but Garin's mother had seen him at the Planky Town, posing as a merchant. One of his companions had a lazy eye, the same as Cletus Yronwood, Lord Anders's randy son. A maester traveled with them too, a maester skilled in tongues. My brother is not as clever as he thinks. A clever man would have left from Oldtown, even if it meant a longer voyage. In Oldtown he might have gone unrecognized. Arianne had friends amongst the orphans of the Planky Town, and some had grown curious as to why a prince and a lords son might be traveling under false names and seeking passage across the narrow sea. One of them had crept through a window of a night, tickled the lock on Quentyn's little strongbox, and found the scrolls within.

Arianne interprets this as Doran beginning to put Operation-Replace-Arianne into action. Though she has arrived at the wrong conclusions about Dorans intentions and feelings towards her, her logic was perfectly sound.

Like many others in Dorne, Arianne also makes a false assumption about Doran's personality, feeling that he is meek and too forgiving of his enemies:

He thinks he is being subtle when he is only being feeble.

This is not an unpopular view in Dorne; we see the Sand Snakes certainly share her feelings as well, and the commoners pelting fruit at Doran indicate that others are not too fond of his passivity. We have come to learn by the end of AFFC that this is largely an incorrect, and that Doran has been working at the downfall of his enemies for years. Yet Arianne's misunderstanding of her fathers nature is not without cause, and it is something he is guilty of as well.

Doran
Doran's perception of Arianne is a perception held by many in the fandom. For one, he doesn't see her as one who could keep a secret, a quality she certainly possesses, as demonstrated in Section I:

Arianne, your nature... to you, a secret was only a choice tale to whisper to Garin and Tyene in your bed of a night.

Arianne's closeness to Tyene is something that Doran finds problematic, perhaps also because the two have colluded together behind his back in the past:

The princess might even have considered Willas Tyrell, crippled leg and all, but her father refused to send her to Highgarden to meet him.

She tried to go despite him, with Tyene's help... but Prince Oberyn caught them at Vaith and brought them back.

And in the Captain of Guards chapter, one of the first things Doran says to Arianne is "I do not see Tyene," indicating that he views the two as inseparable. Which Arianne inadvertently corroborates:

"I have commanded the cooks to prepare a feast for this evening," Arianne said, "with all your favorite dishes."

"I fear I could not do them justice." The prince glanced slowly around the yard. "I do not see Tyene."

"She begs a private word. I sent her to the throne room to await your coming."

The prince sighed. "Very well."

Tyene's immediate presence implicitly confirms Doran's assumptions about Arianne being too close to at least one person that he considers untrustworthy. This also serves as a rationalization for Doran's refusal to let Arianne in on the plan. He assumes that had he told Arianne about her betrothal to Viserys, she couldn't have resisted telling Tyene or perhaps even others.

Additionally, Doran thinks that Arianne is not a strategic thinker:

"Yourself. Sometimes it is best to study a game before you attempt to play it. How well do you know the game, Arianne?"

"Well enough to play."

"But not to win. My brother loved the fight for its own sake, but I only play such games as I can win. Cyvasse is not for me."

This quote shows Doran handing down his judgment of Arianne. The barely veiled subtext is that Arianne does not understand enough to play the game of thrones, whereas he knows what battles to fight and what not to. However, Arianne demonstrates that she is a perfectly able political thinker. Here she is sizing up the strengths and weaknesses of Dorne:

The most powerful of the Dornish lords was Anders Yronwood, the Bloodroyal, Lord of Yronwood and Warden of the Stone Way, but Arianne knew better than to look for help from the man who had fostered her brother Quentyn. No. Drey's brother Ser Deziel Dalt had once aspired to marry her, but he was much too dutiful to go against his prince. Besides, whilst the Knight of Lemonwood might intimidate a petty lord, he did not have the strength to sway the Prince of Dorne. No. The same was true of Spotted Sylva's father. No. Arianne finally decided that she had but two real hopes: Harmen Uller, Lord of Hellholt, and Franklyn Fowler, Lord of Skyreach and Warden of the Prince's Pass.

Half of the Ullers are half-mad, the saying went, and the other half are worse. Ellaria Sand was Lord Harmens natural daughter. She and her little ones had been locked away with the rest of the Sand Snakes. That would have made Lord Harmen wroth, and the Ullers were dangerous when wroth. Too dangerous, perhaps. The princess did not want to put any more lives in danger.

Lord Fowler might be a safer choice. The Old Hawk, he was called. He had never gotten on with Anders Yronwood; there was bad blood between their Houses going back a thousand years, from when the Fowlers had chosen Martell over Yronwood during Nymeria's War. The Fowler twins were famous friends of Lady Nym as well, but how much weight would that carry with the Old Hawk?

For someone who was consigned to feasts and frolics, this is a very detailed understanding of the current dynamics, and an understanding that is backed up by Hotah's security evaluation in ADWD:

Hotah paid more note to those who did not drink: Ser Daemon Sand, Lord Tremond Gargalen, the Fowler twins, Dagos Manwoody, the Ullers of the Hellholt, the Wyls of the Boneway. If there is trouble, it could start with one of them. Dorne was an angry and divided land, and Prince Dorans hold on it was not as firm as it might be. Many of his own lords thought him weak and would have welcomed open war with the Lannisters and the boy king on the Iron Throne.

This isn't to say Doran is baseless for his thoughts about Arianne. By all accounts, she was a rambunctious teenager, running around Dorne with her merry crew, losing her virginity at fourteen to a bastard who then asked Doran for her hand, likely acting cold towards Doran himself, etc. Yet his misunderstanding of Arianne's character, along with her motivations for her behavior, colored his planning to his own detriment; the exact same mistake we see Arianne made with regards to him.

IV. Long-term planning
Something that is interesting is that many are inclined to view Doran's plan as well thought-out and long term--too long term perhaps--whereas Arianne's plan is viewed as poorly conceived, hasty, and sloppy. However, Id argue that both of their plans were long-term in nature, and both characters were continually strategizing to see these plans come to fruition.

Arianne
As was mentioned previously, Arianne learned of Dorans intentions nine years ago:

"I have known the truth since I was four-and-ten My fathers words, written in his own hand. They burned themselves into my memory. I cried myself to sleep that night, and many nights thereafter."

Its not clear at what point she began formulating a plan, but we do see Arianne attempt to seduce Renly when she is half a girl, suggesting around 16 (given Westerosi coming-of-age standards):

One year King Roberts brother came to visit and she did her best to seduce him, but she was half a girl and Lord Renly seemed more bemused than inflamed by her overtures.

We also made note of her attempt to sneak into The Reach to meet Willas. After she was caught, that same year, Doran tried to betroth her to Ben Beesbury, a blind, toothless, octogenarian.

Ariannes plan is unique in that the first few years of it, she was still trying to figure out where she fell and if she was correct in her concerns. Its clear that at as time elapsed, Arianne became more and more sure of her father's intentions. Yet she didn't act. Even two years prior to the events of AFFC, when Doran left for the Water Gardens and her official charge was feasts and frolics, she did nothing. Well, nothing other than seeing to the entertainment of noble guests.

Arianne's plan was one of constant strategizing and a continual appraisal her situation so she'd know when to strike...kind of like studying the cyvasse board as Doran had wished! When Myrcella and Arys were sent to Dorne, Arianne worked to get Ser Arys in her pocket, much in advance of Oberyn and Joffrey's deaths:

Her seduction of Ser Arys had required half a year.

This post from the reread by Rhaenys_Targaryen suggests that the start of Arianne's seduction coincided with her receiving news about Quentyn's departure. Even if it was slightly before this, her seeing the potential value in Arys for her own cause shows foresight and the ability to plan in the long-term.

Joffrey's death allowed for the political ambiguity of inheritance, given Myrcella's presence in Dorne. Myrcella inheriting over Tommen is a concept that we first hear Oberyn float to Tyrion, and later reiterated as originating with the Red Viper from Tyene:

"War," said Tyene, "though not my sisters war. Dornishmen fight best at home, so I say let us hone our spears and wait. When the Lannisters and the Tyrells come down on us, we shall bleed them in the passes and bury them beneath the blowing sands, as we have a hundred times before."

"If they should come down on us."

"Oh, but they must, or see the realm riven once more, as it was before we wed the dragons. Father told me so. He said we had the Imp to thank, for sending us Princess Myrcella. She is so pretty, don't you think? I wish that I had curls like hers. She was made to be a queen, just like her mother." Dimples bloomed in Tyene's cheeks. "I would be honored to arrange the wedding, and to see to the making of the crowns as well. Trystane and Myrcella are so innocent, I thought perhaps white gold... with emeralds, to match Myrcella's eyes. Oh, diamonds and pearls would serve as well, so long as the children are wed and crowned. Then we need only hail Myrcella as the First of Her Name, Queen of the Andals, the Rhoynar, and the First Men, and lawful heir to the Seven Kingdoms of Westeros, and wait for the lions to come."

Its not a leap to suggest that Tyene shared this idea with Arianne, seeing as Arianne stuck her in the solar to tell it to Doran.

Arianne doesn't set out to crown Myrcella right after Joffrey's death, or even after Oberyn's, which results in an inflamed Dorne:

The Red Vipers death had inflamed the Dornish even more, though the streets had quieted a bit since Prince Doran had confined the Sand Snakes to a tower.

__
"The prince is dead!" a woman shrilled behind him.
"To spears!" a man bellowed from a balcony.
"Doran!" called some highborn voice. "To the spears!"
Hotah gave up looking for the speakers; the press was too thick, and a third of them were shouting. "To spears!" Vengeance for the Viper! By the time they reached the third gate, the guards were shoving people aside to clear a path for the princes litter, and the crowd was throwing things. One ragged boy darted past the spearmen with a half-rotten pomegranate in one hand, but when he saw Areo Hotah in his path, with longaxe at the ready, he let the fruit fall unthrown and beat a quick retreat. Others farther back let fly with lemons, limes, and oranges, crying" War! War! To the spears!" One of the guards was hit in the eye with a lemon, and the captain himself had an orange splatter off his foot.

It is not until the Sand Snakes are also imprisoned that Arianne realizes she must act now, else lose any opportunity to secure her birthright. This is because it also marks the moment that she realizes how vulnerable she is: her father is willing to lock up his nieces who are beloved by the people:

"I have never been as fearless as my cousins, for I was made with weaker seed, but Tyene and I are of an age and have been close as sisters since we were little girls. We have no secrets between us.

If she can be imprisoned, so can I, and for the same cause... this of Myrcella."

"Your father would never do that."

"You do not know my father. I have been disappointing him since I first arrived in this world without a cock."

Arianne must act now, and it makes sense to act anyway...the time is ripe. Dorne is incensed and champing at the bit for a fight after Oberyn's death, and the Sand Snakes imprisonments does nothing to soothe the tensions. That's when Arianne acts. Her patience to wait for the opportune moment to strike is something we see mirrored exactly with Doran.

Doran
Now, there's a lot about Doran's plan that is still largely opaque to us, and even Arianne's sample chapter doesn't give us many specifics. What Doran and Oberyn talked about in their bi-monthly strategy sessions can only be guessed at, and the logistics of rallying Dorne to Viserys's cause will never be known. However, we do know that Doran, like Arianne, planned for years to seek his justice:

"You mistake patience for forbearance. I have worked at the downfall of Tywin Lannister since the day they told me of Elia and her children. It was my hope to strip him of all that he held most dear before I killed him, but it would seem his dwarf son has robbed me of that pleasure."

Like Arianne, Dorne was waiting for the opportune moment to strike, going so far as to describe himself as grass that hides the viper:

"I am not blind, nor deaf. I know that you all believe me weak, frightened, feeble. Your father knew me better. Oberyn was ever the viper. Deadly, dangerous, unpredictable. No man dared tread on him. I was the grass. Pleasant, complaisant, sweet-smelling, swaying with every breeze. Who fears to walk upon the grass? But it is the grass that hides the viper from his enemies and shelters him until he strikes. Your father and I worked more closely than you know but now he is gone. The question is, can I trust his daughters to serve me in his place?"

Similarly, Arianne acted as the grass when it came to her own plan, hiding her true motivations and allowing others to believe her to be silly, wanton, and a myopic thinker. Even to get Arys on board she plays down her own capabilities. Did Doran ever dare think shed act against him? We know for a fact that he let Arianne's party set-out simply because he could not believe it.

Arianne waited to set-out at an opportune moment. Doran did the exact same thing when he chose to dispatch Oberyn to Kings Landing after Roberts death:

"He went beyond anything I asked of him. Take the measure of this boy king and his council, and make note of their strengths and weaknesses, I told him, on the terrace. We were eating oranges. Find us friends, if there are any to be found. Learn what you can of Elias end, but see that you do not provoke Lord Tywin unduly, those were my words to him."

Doran saw an opportunity with the small council seat and took it by sending Oberyn, just as Oberyn's death and the Sand Snakes imprisonments provided the ideal and necessary time for Arianne to strike as well.

Whatever you think of the respective merits of the QM plot and the Dornish-Revenge plot, what is clear is that both required long-term strategizing, foresight, and great patience until an opportunity presented itself. The homologous nature of these two plots allows for a much closer comparison to be drawn between Arianne and Doran...a comparison that continues throughout both of their AFFC/ADWD arcs.

V. High expectations at start of plot
Even though most posters on this forum have their own, well-formed opinions about the quality of the QM and Dornish-Revenge plot, what is clear is that Arianne and Doran viewed their plans in an optimistic light; an optimism that we see wane completely by the end of AFFC.

Arianne
Arianne's high expectations for the success of her plot can be seen from the onset, once she leaves Sunspear to crown Myrcella. The first night, Arianne separates herself from the group and thinks:

Do you see the white one, Quentyn? That is Nymeria's star, burning bright, and that milky band behind her, those are ten thousand ships. She burned as bright as any man, and so shall I. You will not rob me of my birthright!

When Arys and Myrcella arrive [supposedly] without a hitch, Arianne's confidence increases, and she allows to think about the logistics with a similarly optimistic view:

The next part should be slow and simple, she thought, up the Greenblood and onto the Vaith, as far as a poleboat can go. That would give her time enough to prepare Myrcella for all that was to come. Beyond Vaith the deep sands waited. They would need help from Sandstone and the Hellholt to make that crossing, but she did not doubt that it would be forthcoming. The Red Viper had been fostered at Sandstone, and Prince Oberyns paramour Ellaria Sand was Lord Uller's natural daughter; four of the Sand Snakes were his granddaughters. I will crown Myrcella at the Hellholt and raise my banners there.

These are rather lofty goals...crowning Myrcella and rallying all of Dorne, yet it is clear Arianne views them as attainable. She even thinks to herself, "one day the singers will make all of us immortal." Perhaps in retrospect, a ponderous line as her plan comes crashing down soon after. Yet it's a confidence we see in her father as well.

Doran
Though Doran's plan was never as personally proactive as Arianne's, he felt similarly confident in his ability to exact revenge on House Lannister. I previously quoted Doran explain how hes been working at the downfall of Tywin only to have Tyrion rob him of that pleasure, which suggests that Doran did indeed expect to be able to strip him of all he held most dear before killing him. I would call these goals lofty as well, especially given Tywin's reputation.

We see Doran's confidence in his own planning continue even after Tywin's demise however, evident by the self-assurance with which he dismisses Arianne's ability to play the game in the Princess in the Tower chapter. I quoted this before, but once again:

"But not to win. My brother loved the fight for its own sake, but I only play such games as I can win. Cyvasse is not for me."

This demonstrates that Doran thinks he knows what games he can't win, and how to avoid these pitfalls. Yet within this very conversation, he's about to be proven wrong. I'd call this Doran's own "one day the singers will make all of us immortal" moment. We see a similar confidence in his capabilities and planning, yet its about to come crashing down around him.

VI. Unforeseen political dynamics change nature/possible outcome of plot
I've touched on Doran and Arianne's adaptability when it comes to their schemes, but it's worth taking note that both plans were colored by unforeseen political dynamics.

Arianne
In the case of Arianne, it is the deaths of Joffrey and Oberyn, the latter of which led to a provoked Dorne, which changed the political landscape and gave her an opportunity to crown Myrcella. Arianne had been seducing Arys previously, potentially in response to Quentyn's trip from Planky Town, yet is was the perfect political Molotov cocktail of Tommen's ascension to the throne, Oberyn's death, Quentyn's trip, and the Sand Snakes arrests that allowed her plans to take their final form.

Even so, as Arianne sets out, she learns of another political curveball:

"There are other tidings you should hear. Tywin Lannister is dead."

That was a shock. "Dead?"

"Murdered by the Imp. The queen has assumed the regency."

"Has she?" A woman on the Iron Throne? Arianne thought about that for a moment and decided it was all to the good. If the lords of the Seven Kingdoms grew accustomed to Queen Cersei's rule, it would be that much easier for them to bend their knees to Queen Myrcella. And Lord Tywin had been a dangerous foe; without him, Dorne's enemies would be much weaker. Lannisters are killing Lannisters, how sweet.

Here we see Arianne take in this news, weigh her options, and decide the best course of action. While this may be a bit redundant to the section about opportunism in both plots, consider for a minute how huge any of these events would be for someone in Arianne's position. She had to have a firm understanding of the political landscape and juggle unforeseen changes on the fly.

Doran
Like his daughter, Doran had to alter his plans quickly as well. Although Tyrion killing Tywin robbed Doran of part of his plan, we know that his primary objective, removing House Barathister from its seat of power with a Martell/Targaryen alliance, is still in full swing. Yet Viserys's death was the first political curveball Doran had to handle:

"It was a pot of molten gold. We princes make our careful plans and the gods smash them all awry." Prince Doran made a weary gesture with a chafed red hand.

In response, Doran had to quickly shift his tactic. He landed on sending Quentyn to Daenerys, trying to make the marriage pact work another way. Doran also had to deal with the death of Robert and Tywin Lannister becoming Hand of the King, which he responded to by sending Oberyn to Dorne to take measure of the boy king and his council. Once Oberyn died and Sunspear called for Doran to seek vengeance, he responded by locking up the Sand Snakes, sending a message to any who would war-monger in Dorne. He even locked Daemon Sand up for demanding their release:

"Quick and quiet and bloodless, aye. What is your command?"
"You will find my brother's daughters, take them into custody, and confine them in the cells atop the Spear Tower".
---
"There is some news from Dorne that Your Grace may find of more interest. Prince Doran has imprisoned Ser Daemon Sand, a bastard who once squired for the Red Viper."
"I recall him. Ser Daemon had been amongst the Dornish knights who had accompanied Prince Oberyn to Kings Landing. What did he do?"
"He demanded that Prince Oberyns daughters be set free."

This bought Doran time to remain under the kings peace while Quentyn went to Essos to bring home the hearts desire of House Martell. A peace that was about to disrupted by his daughter, of course.

VII. Plot comes crashing down
We've gone through the formulation and evolution of Arianne's and Doran's plans, which bear remarkable similarities. Now let's examine the moments when their respective plots fail, or come dangerously close to doing so. For Arianne, it's when her QM party arrives at the poleboat on the Greenblood, only to find Hotah waiting for them. For Doran, his plan is partially destabilized by Myrcella's ear injury, though its merits truly break down once Arianne reveals to him that she read the letter, knows of Quentyn in Essos, and believes her father hates her.

Arianne
Here is the moment for the princess (emphasis mine):

Garin reined up beneath the willow. "Wake up, you fish-eyed lagabeds," he called as he leapt down from the saddle. "Your queen is here, and wants her royal welcome. Come up, come out, we'll have some songs and sweetwine. My mouth is set for"

The door on the poleboat slammed open. Out into the sunlight stepped Areo Hotah, longaxe in hand.
Garin jerked to a halt. Arianne felt as though an axe had caught her in the belly. It was not supposed to end this way. This was not supposed to happen.

"We are taken, ser," Arianne might have called out. "Your death will not free us. If you love your princess, yield." But when she tried to speak, the words caught in her throat.

Arianne raised a tear-streaked face. How could he know? she asked the captain. "I was so careful. How could he know?"

"Someone told." Hotah shrugged. "Someone always tells."

Arianne's plot failed because she underestimated Doran. He is not passive, nor has he had the wool pulled over his eyes. He also never meant for her to fear her birthright. Arianne's entire plan was formulated around incorrect assumptions, and it was those assumptions that were her undoing.

Even after this plot has failed, Arianne refuses to be truly cowed, given that she believes her underlying motivation to be justified. She cant bring herself to beg for forgiveness, despite being torn up about Mycella's injury and Arys's death. Note the moment when she finally reveals to Doran her discontent:

Prince Doran sighed. "You disappoint me, Arianne."

"Said the crow to the raven. You have been disappointing me for years, Father." She had not meant to be so blunt with him, but the words came spilling out. There, now I have said it.

This is the first moment of candor Arianne has with her father since she was fourteen, or at least the first moment that really gets to the heart of the issue of their relationship.

Doran
Doran's plans, though certainly hitting a few SNAFUs on the way (Viserys and Oberyns's deaths, for instance), only became truly unhinged as a result of Arianne's actions. Actions which wouldn't have taken place if not for Doran's misunderstanding of her. Although the Dornish-Revenge plot is still very much active at the end of ADWD into TWOW, so it hasn't truly failed, Doran's plans without the help of Arianne are very much destroyed. Here is where Doran articulates exactly why he's in deep trouble:

"If so, he may well be but the first of many. You and your cousins wanted war. You may get your wish. Another Kingsguard knight creeps toward Sunspear even as we speak. Ser Balon Swann is bringing me the Mountains head. My bannermen have been delaying him, to purchase me some time. The Wyls kept him hunting and hawking for eight days on the Boneway, and Lord Yronwood feasted him for a fortnight when he emerged from the mountains. At present he is at the Tor, where Lady Jordayne has arranged games in his honor. When he reaches Ghost Hill he will find Lady Toland intent on outdoing her. Soon or late, however, Ser Balon must arrive at Sunspear, and when he does he will expect to see Princess Myrcella . . . and Ser Arys, his Sworn Brother. What shall we tell him, Arianne? Shall I say that Oakheart perished in a hunting accident, or from a tumble down some slippery steps? Perhaps Arys went swimming at the Water Gardens, slipped upon the marble, hit his head, and drowned?"

As for why this would be the undoing of everything Doran's worked for:

"If? The word is when. Dorne is the least populous of the Seven Kingdoms. It pleased the Young Dragon to make all our armies larger when he wrote that book of his, so as to make his conquest that much more glorious, and it has pleased us to water the seed he planted and let our foes think us more powerful than we are, but a princess ought to know the truth. Valor is a poor substitute for numbers. Dorne cannot hope to win a war against the Iron Throne, not alone. And yet that may well be what you have given us."

Myrcella losing an ear is a problem, one that could drag Dorne into a war that Doran does not foresee being able to win.

Whether you agree with Doran or not on that last point, its clear that Operation Dornish-Revenge is in danger. This is also the turning point for both Doran and Arianne, as its the moment that she realizes he needs her to get him out of the situation. Whats notable is that in Doran's conversation to Arianne, he doesn't address this issue for quite some time. (As a quick side-note, I recommend reading this incredible line-by-line analysis of their entire conversation if you want to see a close look at the dynamics at play, or put the flow of conversation in context).
For Doran this is his "there, now I have said it" moment--the first time he broaches the clear and immediate problem his daughter caused, allowing the conversation to shift and honest dialogue to ensue.

Other moments for Doran parallel similarities in Arianne's journey. Lets look at his "axe catching him in the belly" moment (previously cited in Section I):

The princess refused to be cowed. "I want my cousins freed. I want my uncle avenged. I want my rights."

"Your rights?"

"Dorne."

"You will have Dorne after I am dead. Are you so anxious to be rid of me?"

"I should turn that question back on you, Father. You have been trying to rid yourself of me for years."

"That is not true."

"No? Shall we ask my brother?"

Not only is this Doran's first understanding that anything has been upsetting Arianne, but she mentions her brother, whose journey we know Doran is very careful to protect.

Here's Doran's "I was so careful" moment:

"Trystane?"

"Quentyn."

"What of him?"

"Where is he?"

"He is with Lord Yronwoods host in the Boneway."

"You do lie well, Father, I will grant you that. You did not so much as blink. Quentyn has gone to Lys."

"Where did you get that notion?"

"A friend told me. She could have secrets too."

"Your friend lied. You have my word, your brother has not gone to Lys. I swear it by sun and spear and Seven."

Arianne didn't understand how Doran could have learned of her mission. She felt like she was so careful, yet despite that, Doran found out...supposedly because "someone always tells." Here we have that situation perfectly reversed for Doran. How could Arianne have found out about Quentyn's trip? In this case, because an orphan told.

Its clear that Arianne threw a wrench in Doran's plan and vice versa, though Doran doesn't realize why until the end of their conversation. However, we can also draw a parallel between how both Martells enter their conversation with each other.

Arianne intended to be humble and beg forgiveness, and it seemed Doran wanted to forgive her, but the disappointment over the years and the words cutting to close prevent this for both parties:

"Are you proud? The prince did not allow her time to answer. What am I to do with you, Arianne?"

Forgive me, part of her wanted to say, but his words had cut her too deeply. "Why, do what you always do. Do nothing."

"You make it difficult for a man to swallow his anger."

"Best stop swallowing, you're like to choke on it." The prince did not answer. "Tell me how you knew my plans."

He needs me, Arianne realized. That's why he sent for me. "I could tell Myrcella what to say, but why should I?"

A spasm of anger rippled across her fathers face. "I warn you, Arianne, I am out of patience."

"With me? That is so like him. For Lord Tywin and the Lannisters you always had the forbearance of Baelor the Blessed, but for your own blood, none."

"You mistake patience for forbearance."

These two quotes juxtaposed suggest that Arianne wanted to beg for forgiveness, and Doran wanted to dole it out, yet anger prevents this from occurring. Doran's words cut deeply for Arianne because they point out fair criticisms of her person, and confirm what shes suspected for years: her father is disappointed by her. Conversely, Arianne's words hurt Doran. By asking why she should help him, and suggesting that he is kinder to his enemies than to her, she is playing into his own insecurities about taking too long with his plans and failing to exact revenge.

The Power of Words in their Plots
For both Arianne and Doran, the power of words, loosened or guarded, play a large role. Doran's biggest risk, which almost unhinged his plan, was to not be forthcoming with information to Arianne. As I have articulated, she is able to keep secrets and understand political complexities. Its true that someone told about Quentyn's trip to Arianne, yet what truly threw Dorans plot into chaos was the QM plot...one which Doran inadvertently caused by not telling.

In the case of Arianne, we don't know if someone told or not (I'm inclined to think not, but its open for debate). Ironically, as I suggested earlier, had Arianne told Tyene or anyone else about her birthright-fears, then Doran likely would have found out and been able to set their relationship straight earlier. Yet here, Arianne not telling allowed for her anxiety to build and her need to secure her birthright intensify; hence, the QM plot.

Even if Arianne didn't guard the logistics of her plot as well and someone told, leading to its downfall, that's still a nice symmetry to Doran's situation. Guarding words is his issue, whereas loosening words would be hers in that case. They both hit these stumbling blocks and can meet in the middle, with a mutual understanding of one another.

VIII. Internalized guilt
Following the downfall (I use the term loosely because Doran's plot could still be salvaged thanks to the addition of Arianne as a participant) of their respective plots, both Doran and Arianne exhibit signs of regret over the others misunderstanding of their meaning, accompanied with internalized guilt.

"What you meant does not matter, little princess," Areo Hotah said. "Only what you did."
We see both Arianne and Doran defending their intentions, though not their actions to each other:

"I never meant her harm," Arianne insisted. "If Hotah had not interfered..."

"The pact was sealed in secret. I meant to tell you when you were old enough... when you came of age, I thought, but..."

___
"Do you truly believe I would harm my brothers children? "
___
"I never hated you." Prince Dorans voice was parchment-thin, and full of grief. "Arianne, you do not understand."
___
"Dorne will be yours. You have my word on that, if my word still has any meaning for you."

Note that Doran never says, yeah I'm glad I didn't tell you. His voice full of grief suggests that this is a regret for him.

As for internalized guilt and self-deprecation over their past missteps, we see both Arianne and Doran rushing to each others defense when the Snakes point out the obvious, plus Arianne's blushing:

"This war has already begun."

Obara laughed. "Aye, our sweet Arianne has seen to that."

The princess flushed, and Hotah saw a spasm of anger pass across her fathers face. "What she did, she did as much for you as for herself. I would not be so quick to mock."

Doran snapping at Obara in defense of Arianne is notable. All Obara was remarking was that Arianne may have begun the war with Myrcella's mutilation. This isn't a giant leap of logic. Keep in mind Doran said as much to Arianne. Had it not been for Arianne's ability to sway Myrcella, the Martells would still be in deep shit. As it is now, Myrcella's lie is risky, and the harm under Doran's watch does not keep them safe. It would seem that Obara is just pointing out the obvious. Yet Doran's reaction suggests that he is angered at any charge laid against Arianne, no matter how reasonable, and is quick to defend her. Likely, Doran feels guilty for underestimating her, and for allowing her to feel as though he hated her for 9 years. I don't think he can stand for her to have any more slights against her character or person.

From Arianne's side of things, her blushing at Obara's comment suggests her deep embarrassment/regret about the plot. She views this as a total failure, and has no will to defend it. She blames only herself, and rather than say anything, even if to defend her motives, she flushes silently in the corner. We do see an outward display of her internalized guilt from it when Arianne snaps at Tyene for reasonable charges against Doran.

Obara slowed her pace by half. "What will you do, then?"

Her sister Tyene gave answer. "What he always does, she purred. Delay, obscure, prevaricate. Oh, no one does that half so well as our brave uncle."

"You do him wrong," said Princess Arianne. "Be quiet, all of you," the prince commanded. Not until the doors of his solar were safely closed behind them did he wheel his chair about to face the women.

Is Tyene wrong? No. Remember in AFFC when Nym tells Doran, "No more should you doubt this, my prince...my sisters and I shall not wait ten-and-seven years for our vengeance"? 17 years is a long time for Doran to have done nothing visible in terms of vengeance. So yes, saying he delays is fair. Saying he obscures and prevaricates is also fair. It is with great hesitancy and at Arianne's urging that he tells The Snakes the plan, and even with that, he certainly obscures elements of it with his certain things come to pass. We also know that hes kept information from Ellaria, as he tells the Snakes there are things Ellaria does not know and should not know. This war has already begun.

The point being, Tyene really doesn't "do Doran wrong," but Arianne is trying to defend Doran's intent. Just like Doran did for Arianne. They are compensating for their past wrongs to each other, as well as demonstrating that they both understand the others motives now. Which leads to the next point

IX. Mutual trust/understanding gained & synchronization moving forward
We see many indications of Arianne and Doran having a healed, close, and trusting relationship in their ADWD. To quickly close out that last point on their defense of each other, Doran has a spasm of anger when Obara speaks about Arianne. Id argue that this occurs because Doran feels that Arianne is being wronged. Even if her actions kind of started a war, or at least could have, Obara is misrepresenting Arianne's motives, and its sort of an inherent slight to her person.

Doran now knows Arianne's true motivations for the QM plot.

The princess refused to be cowed. "I want my cousins freed. I want my uncle avenged. I want my rights."

While Doran likely became apologetic towards Arianne due to that last bit, his defense of Arianne to Obara indicates that he hasn't quickly forgotten her more selfless motivations either. Arianne did want her cousins freed, and had it not been for the perfect Molotov cocktail of Oberyn's death, his daughters imprisonments, and Quentyn's oversea adventure, Arianne wouldn't have acted. She had a multitude of reasons to crown Myrcella, and nothing was so simple as to start a war. Even if Obara meant it as praise to Arianne, Doran's anger shows just how much he understands Arianne's actions and doesn't blame her, else there'd be no defense. This is similar to Arianne's defense of Doran as well. Even if Doran is very good at delaying, obscuring, and prevaricating, Tyene is misunderstanding the motives for Doran's seeming passivity.

In addition to defending each other, we see the built understanding and trust between the two of them. The Watcher chapter centers on the Dornish feast at which Arianne and Doran have tasked themselves with figuring out if Swann truly intends to carry out a plan to kill Trystane. With this objective, we see not only a coordination between the two, but also an implicit understand of each others merits based on the methods used in their strategy.

Operation Sniff-out-Swann plays to both of their strengths. Arianne uses her charm and flirtation to set Balon at ease (and maybe also to see if they cant just do this the easy way), and Doran uses his meekness and congenial demeanor to float perfectly reasonable, yet poignant questions towards the knight.

When the spun-sugar skulls were served, Ser Balons mouth grew tight, and he gave the prince a lingering look to see if he was being mocked. Doran Martell took no notice, but his daughter did. "It is the cooks little jape, Ser Balon," said Arianne. "Even death is not sacred to a Dornishmen. You wont be cross with us, I pray?" She brushed the back of the white knights hand with her fingers. "I hope you have enjoyed your time in Dorne."

"Everyone has been most hospitable, my lady."

Arianne touched the pin that clasped his cloak, with its quarreling swans. "I have always been fond of swans. No other bird is half so beautiful, this side of the Summer Isles."

" As for the other matter that Queen Cersei raises", Prince Doran was saying, "it is true, Dorne's seat upon the small council has been vacant since my brothers death, and it is past time that it was filled again. I am flattered that Her Grace feels my counsel might be of use to her, though I wonder if I have the strength for such a journey. Perhaps if we went by sea?"

"By ship?" Ser Balon seemed taken aback. T"hat would that be safe, my prince? Autumn is a bad season for storms, or so I've heard, and the pirates in the Stepstones, they..."

"The pirates. To be sure. You may be right, ser. Safer to return the way you came." Prince Doran smiled pleasantly. "Let us talk again on the morrow. When we reach the Water Gardens, we can tell Myrcella. I know how excited she will be. She misses her brother too, I do not doubt."

We also are given indication that Doran and Arianne are on the same page given the secrets they are now sharing with each other:

Some of the tension went out of the prince. Hotah saw him sag back into his chair. He held out his hand, and Princess Arianne moved to his side to hold it. "Tell them, Father."
---
"Good," the prince said, "good." He hesitated. "If if certain things should come to pass, I will send word to each of you. Things can change quickly in the game of thrones."
--
"That last part, about the message. Have you had tidings?"

Prince Doran shared his secret smile with her. "From Lys. A great fleet has put in there to take on water. Volantene ships chiefly, carrying an army. No word as to who they are, or where they might be bound. There was talk of elephants."

"No dragons?"

"Elephants. Easy enough to hide a young dragon in a big cogs hold, though. Daenerys is most vulnerable at sea. If I were her, I would keep myself and my intentions hidden as long as I could, so I might take Kings Landing unawares."

"Do you think that Quentyn will be with them?"

Its clear between their synchronization in Operation Swann and their conversation regarding Daenerys, that there is now trust between the two. This is further evidenced by their almost mushy interaction with each other:

"They are their father's daughters," the prince said.

"The little princess smiled. Three Oberyns, with teats."

Prince Doran laughed. It had been so long since Hotah last heard him laugh, he had almost forgotten what it sounded like.

"I still say it should be me who goes to Kings Landing, not Lady Nym," Arianne said.

"It is too dangerous. You are my heir, the future of Dorne. Your place is by my side. Soon enough, you'll have another task."

Conclusion
To briefly summarize, Doran and Arianne not only have eerily similar characterizations, but nearly identical plot arcs. In AFFC/ADWD, both their storylines:

• Begin with the learning of deeply upsetting information

• Center around enacting plans for equally just causes

• Involve long-term planning and resource gathering over the span of years

• Have plans that are marked by keeping secrets closely guarded

• Have plans that are colored by false yet reasonable assumptions about one another

• Have high expectations at the start of their plans

• Have unforeseen political influences alter and shape their plans

• Have their plots come crashing down as a result of their misunderstanding of each other

• Have words be a key element in the collapse of their plans

• Involve a period of grief, with internalized guilt moving forward

• End with a mutual trust and understanding of one another gained, and father/daughter synchronization moving forward

Because we don't know how Doran planned in the past, and because much of the Dornish-Revenge-Plot remains largely opaque to us (even with the TWOW sample chapter), it is often tempting to credit Doran as having more knowledge at the end of ADWD than his daughter does. This could also be because Arianne gets a lot of slack for her Queenmaker plan, despite the fact that it was thought-out and planned over many years like Doran's objectives were.

Yet due to this near perfect parallel in story arc, as well as Doran and Arianne's incredibly similar characterizations, I would argue instead that the narrative is that of a father and daughter who start out in opposition, and end in synchrony. Both characters made mistakes centered on their underestimations and false impressions of each other. Once these misconceptions were stripped away through shockingly similar means, Doran and Arianne were able to rebuild their relationship and move forward together with open communication, love, and trust. Both of their displays of internalized guilt suggest that neither one would want to let the other down again. For these reasons, I find the idea of Doran still actively manipulating or hiding something from Arianne anathema. What is clear is that the convergence of their plots has placed both characters in a strong position, poised to accomplish a great deal together, as the cold winds rise.


*SIDE-NOTE*
I could speak more to their coordination in the future Dornish plot based on the Arianne sample TWOW chapter, but my goal for this essay was to take us through their parallel AFFC/ADWD arcs to show that both Arianne and Doran embarked on a similar journey, and have now come together, poised to kick some ass. However, if you are interested in an analysis of Arianne I TWOW, our reread covered her TWOW sample chapter here.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

A quick reply so I can actively follow this. Will read and respond when I can. :)

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Very interesting essay. Good work.

[Julia Martell]

Well... you've convinced me! I'm not sure what I can possibly add. :frown5:

There's a tendency to see the Arianne/Doran relationship as an unequal one, even going into tWoW, that Arianne fucked up and needs to atone. And she did fuck up, and she does need to atone but Doran is just as aware of his failure in their relationship and just as eager to make up for it.

My OCD line-by-line analysis of their conversation in The Princess in the Tower really made this clear to me. Arianne WON that conversation, like, by a lot. She got everything she ever dreamed of and more out of that conversation, and from a starting point of being locked in prison, for fucks sake. She got reassurance about her birthright, and her father's love for her, the second and first most important things in the world to her. She got the knowledge that her father regrets the shitty way he's been treating her of the past ten years. She got a place in her fathers councils and his trust. This is what she wanted all along. And she got it.

What did poor Doran get out of that conversation? He learned that, for all his vaulted abilities as a chess (cyvasse) master, he completely misjudge his most important piece, completely destroyed his relationship with his daughter, which may be the one thing that means more to him than his revenge plot, although whether he realized that before this point is open for question, and he learned that the thing he thought was his greatest strength, his ability for secrecy, was the thing that really bit him in the ass. He went into that conversation wanting his daughter humbled and begging for forgiveness, he ended up on the ropes defending himself and telling her everything.

Tell me how Doran is in complete control again?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

There's a tendency to see the Arianne/Doran relationship as an unequal one, even going into tWoW, that Arianne fucked up and needs to atone. And she did fuck up, and she does need to atone but Doran is just as aware of his failure in their relationship and just as eager to make up for it.

Exceedingly true.

Truth to tell, I've developed the impression that Doran is the one that fucks up way more, especially since he started in a way stronger position. He fucked up so bad, the Martells may lose Dorne over it!

[Chebyshov]

Exceedingly true.

Truth to tell, I've developed the impression that Doran is the one that fucks up way more, especially since he started in a way stronger position. He fucked up so bad, the Martells may lose Dorne over it!

Yikes, not sure I'd go that far with it given how leal his bannermen seem (like the coordination with distracting Balon on his way to Sunspear, for instance), but I do agree that Doran may be more personally at fault for his fuckups. As the adult, the onus was on him to prepare Arianne for her role/parent her in any way. I actually was motivated to write this largely because I was feeling like I was being too harsh on Doran. Still, I think Martin is being very deliberate in the parallel arcs of the two, so we'll be seeing a new, improved Doran as well.

One thing that I love about this storyline is that we see characters mess up big time, yet neither is truly at fault or wrong in their actions. I think it's a delightful nuance and a fascinating dynamic to watch grow.

[Julia Martell]

I think everyone (on the reread, I mean) is still a little shocked at how the close examination has made Arianne look better and Doran look worse, and now we're trying to get the pendulum to swing back to the middle.

What I really love about this plot is the I, Claudius-like nature of it. It seems to be about grand political events that shape the fates of millions, but really it's entirely about a family relationship and personal growth. Awesome.

[SeanF]

Doran made many errors over the years:-

1. Planning to wed Arianne to Viserys while (apparently) doing nothing to aid the latter and Dany during their exile. Viserys is hopelessly untrained for any position of leadership. Funds, advisors, bodyguards could surely have been discreetly provided via the Iron Bank. Had Viserys had any idea of the marriage pact, he may have stayed in Pentos.

2. Sending Quentyn out to Meereen with inexperienced advisors and colleagues. The right choice to go with Quentyn would surely have been Oberyn. The Kings Landing mission could have been accomplished by a senior official.

3. Keeping Arianne in the dark. Whatever he thinks of her abilities, she's still his heir. What if he dropped dead suddenly? How would Arianne pick up the pieces?

4. Doing little to train her to rule, other than planning entertainments. She knows little about the laws or military strength of Dorne. Even if she was destined to be Queen of Westeros, that job is no sinecure.

[SeanF]

Exceedingly true.

Truth to tell, I've developed the impression that Doran is the one that fucks up way more, especially since he started in a way stronger position. He fucked up so bad, the Martells may lose Dorne over it!

I don't know if Trystane will survive to inherit Dorne. I do think Doran, Arianne, Obara, Tyene, or Nymeria are all going down.

[Cas Stark]

Exceedingly true.

Truth to tell, I've developed the impression that Doran is the one that fucks up way more, especially since he started in a way stronger position. He fucked up so bad, the Martells may lose Dorne over it!

They're both fuck ups. But, Doran is by far the worse fuck up, having started with full knowledge that his daughter didn't have, full resources that his daughter didn't have and still sat on his ass all this time getting nothing accomplished but harm to his own family and position.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I think everyone (on the reread, I mean) is still a little shocked at how the close examination has made Arianne look better and Doran look worse, and now we're trying to get the pendulum to swing back to the middle.

That's quite interesting, because I didn't even read the reread. Not even glanced at it. Nevertheless, we seem to have arrived at the same conclusion.

I don't know if Trystane will survive to inherit Dorne. I do think Doran, Arianne, Obara, Tyene, or Nymeria are all going down.

Probably. But my theory is more about the Martells in total losing the necessary support and somebody else taking over or splitting up Dorne. Yronwood or Edric Dayne feature rather prominently in these thoughts.

Doran has ruined his own reputation, and systematically crippled Arianne. That's already two generations of extremely weak rulers, in a time of heavy upheaval. He already very narrowly escaped two coups, one by Arianne, the other being a public uprising.

As soon as the backlash of some of the current actions (Quentyn, Myrcella) and what's shaping up in the future hit Dorne, it will get exceedingly complicated.

[SeanF]

That's quite interesting, because I didn't even read the reread. Not even glanced at it. Nevertheless, we seem to have arrived at the same conclusion.

Probably. But my theory is more about the Martells in total losing the necessary support and somebody else taking over or splitting up Dorne. Yronwood or Edric Dayne feature rather prominently in these thoughts.

Doran has ruined his own reputation, and systematically crippled Arianne. That's already two generations of extremely weak rulers, in a time of heavy upheaval. He already very narrowly escaped two coups, one by Arianne, the other being a public uprising.

As soon as the backlash of some of the current actions (Quentyn, Myrcella) and what's shaping up in the future hit Dorne, it will get exceedingly complicated.

Doran is crippled by gout, and can't have long to live.

As of TWOW, he's placed the power to declare war into Arianne's hands. His armies are mobilised. The Sand Snakes want war. His people want war. He wants war. And massive temptation has been placed in Arianne's way, in the form of a "Targaryen" Pretender who needs a queen and needs a military alliance with Dorne. That queen might be Daenerys, but Arianne is seeing Dany as her rival. And a kinslayer who connived at the murder of her intended husband. I see the second Dance of the Dragons as being Aegon/Arianne v Dany. I don't think that will end well for the former.

Ellaria in the Dance chapter is fulfilling the role of Cassandra, warning of the horrors of war, and being

brushed aside. But, I think she's speaking for the author.

"She (Nymeria) burned as bright as any man, and so shall I" is a very ominous piece of foreshadowing in my view. So did Princess Rhaenyra..

[Bright Blue Eyes]

That's one issue. There are more.

Anders Yronwood lost a son and a foster son for Doran's schemes. For nothing. For a craven. For a lazy ass sitting on his cheeks ogling naked children playing. That is bound to have consequences.

Darkstar is being made the scapegoat for Arianne's schemes. I doubt he likes that.

Lord Edric Dayne (emphasis on the Lord part) witnessed what happened in the Riverlands, is growing into a leadership role and with just a tad more information will probably align with Stannis and the Starks. Probably bringing Blackhaven with him.

There's a whole ton of shit speeding up in the Dornish Marches, on both sides of the border. While Sunspear is weaker than it has been for a very long time. All these fissures and forces pulling in separate directions could easily rip Dorne apart, with the Martells in the middle of the storm.

[Bustard]

Awesome thread. The Doran/Arianne dynamic is very underrated IMO.

[Mithras]

"She (Nymeria) burned as bright as any man, and so shall I" is a very ominous piece of foreshadowing in my view. So did Princess Rhaenyra..

So did Aerion Brightflame. Speaking of which, fAegon is called the bright prince, which is originally the nickname of Aerion.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Doran made many errors over the years:-

1. Planning to wed Arianne to Viserys while (apparently) doing nothing to aid the latter and Dany during their exile. Viserys is hopelessly untrained for any position of leadership. Funds, advisors, bodyguards could surely have been discreetly provided via the Iron Bank. Had Viserys had any idea of the marriage pact, he may have stayed in Pentos.

I disagree with this.

Viserys and Dany had been watched closely during their exile. Any aid thy had been offered, would have been spotted, and thus also the aid that Doran would have send. That would implicate Dorne in a war, one kingdom against six united kingdoms, a war they could not even have hoped to win.

Discretely providing stuff through the Iron Bank, would mean that Doran had contacts with the Iron Bank, and of that, no trace exists. Also, the Iron Bank is meant for gold, not for providing councillors, or bodyguards or such.

[Cas Stark]

I disagree with this.

Viserys and Dany had been watched closely during their exile. Any aid thy had been offered, would have been spotted, and thus also the aid that Doran would have send. That would implicate Dorne in a war, one kingdom against six united kingdoms, a war they could not even have hoped to win.

Discretely providing stuff through the Iron Bank, would mean that Doran had contacts with the Iron Bank, and of that, no trace exists. Also, the Iron Bank is meant for gold, not for providing councillors, or bodyguards or such.

So, you think that two former street thieves, Varys and Illyrio, are capable of raising and nurturing either the fake or real Aegon without anyone ever having even a whiff of this....but the Prince of Dorne isn't capable of sending some aid to Viserys, despite having vastly more resources than the two of them? I find this impossible to believe. Doran is lame, that is the answer.

[SeanF]

I disagree with this.

Viserys and Dany had been watched closely during their exile. Any aid thy had been offered, would have been spotted, and thus also the aid that Doran would have send. That would implicate Dorne in a war, one kingdom against six united kingdoms, a war they could not even have hoped to win.

Discretely providing stuff through the Iron Bank, would mean that Doran had contacts with the Iron Bank, and of that, no trace exists. Also, the Iron Bank is meant for gold, not for providing councillors, or bodyguards or such.

How could the "beggar king" have governed Westeros with Arianne?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

I disagree with this.

Viserys and Dany had been watched closely during their exile. Any aid thy had been offered, would have been spotted, and thus also the aid that Doran would have send. That would implicate Dorne in a war, one kingdom against six united kingdoms, a war they could not even have hoped to win.

Discretely providing stuff through the Iron Bank, would mean that Doran had contacts with the Iron Bank, and of that, no trace exists. Also, the Iron Bank is meant for gold, not for providing councillors, or bodyguards or such.

Who did? Apart from Viserys' paranoia, there are no hints for that.

[Chebyshov]

When it came to sending aid to Viserys, I don't think it's an unfair criticism to say that Doran may have been to cautious. But this attitude is keeping with his pre-AFFC mindset. Here's how he puts it to Quentyn:

“Dorne will bleed if your purpose is discovered,” his father had warned him, as they watched the children frolic in the pools and fountains of the Water Gardens. “What we do is treason, make no mistake. Trust only your companions, and do your best to avoid attracting notice.”

Yet given his rather sobering awakening to the cost of too much delay and too much caution, I'd say he's certainly learned from this mistake. I mean Arianne seriously mistook his intentions to the point where she suggested the Sand Snakes might be put to death. Doran's response:

“Do you truly believe I would harm my brother’s children?” Her father grimaced.

One thing I will say in Doran's defense is that the time really wasn't ripe for war. Robert had a solid hold on the realm and ruled for a good, long summer. Yet the current political turmoil in addition to Doran learning his lesson suggest that Dorne will now be proactively involved. And Arianne is right there alongside him.