[TWOIAF spoilers] Size and age of Asshai vs its poppulation and food resources hint at a past ecological disaster?

[ummester]

Magnetic north has no baring in TWOIAF as no 1 uses compasses. The fact is tho that Sothoros and Ulthos are not the South pole as we would know it on earth. The climate does not match, nor does the fact that Sothoros is apparently as big as Essos.

That only matters to how the people living on the planet perceive it.

If the planet is rotating on a sufficient tilt, it will effect the weather and climate. Some scientists on Earth put climatic change down to how much Earth is spinning off axis. If Planetos is spinning much further off axis, then this could be used as an explanation for the constant climate change on the planet - irregular winters and the like.

Southyros can be as big as Essos, what does this mater? It can just be mostly on the other side of the planet. Southyros becomes Northyros :D (depending on which way you are facing and where you enter from) Actually, if they don't use compasses, it is entirely irrelevant. They just call it Southyros because it seems to be south of Essos, from their relative bearing in the world.

@ummester: wouldn't a sextant still be effective to determine latitude. There's no textual evidence I know of that supports the use of such a device, but there is support for celestial navigation (ice dragon=north). I don't know of any support for magnetic navigation.

I don't think latitude and such will be relevant to how GRRM describes it, because he is describing from POV characters who do not have that knowledge. I do think that he is telling what is essentially an eco tale a heart. The first chapter he wrote was the kids finding the wolves and he is a naturalist/wolf lover himself.

Rather than humans breaking the world with oil rigs, or magic (as in WoT, which I haven't read) I think he'll end up saying they broke it with blood magic and dragons. That bringing dragons into the world was inherently unnatural and dangerous.

[ummester]

Unlikely. one way that a human can determine if he's on the souther hemisphere or the northern one is look at the stars and the sun. In the north, the sun rises in the east, passes along the south, and settles in the west, but in the souther hemisphere, the sun actually passes along the north rather than the south during the day. This changes somewhat over the season on certain locations at the equator i presume due to the changing tilt. Afcourse, when talking north/south here, we do determine the north by seeing the north star, which the westerosi have but likely cannot be seen from the southern hemisphere.

But, an observation where the sun passes allong the north has not been noted yet. Even around the summer islands, so i have from the woiaf text, the sun passes along the south, giving hint to the summer islands being wel above the equator too.

If the planet is sufficiently off axis it won't work quite like that - the sun would pass along the southwest, or north east, depending on your position on the planet.

[H0X0]

That only matters to how the people living on the planet perceive it.

If the planet is rotating on a sufficient tilt, it will effect the weather and climate. Some scientists on Earth put climatic change down to how much Earth is spinning off axis. If Planetos is spinning much further off axis, then this could be used as an explanation for the constant climate change on the planet - irregular winters and the like.

Southyros can be as big as Essos, what does this mater? It can just be mostly on the other side of the planet. Southyros becomes Northyros :D (depending on which way you are facing and where you enter from) Actually, if they don't use compasses, it is entirely irrelevant. They just call it Southyros because it seems to be south of Essos, from their relative bearing in the world.

I don't think latitude and such will be relevant to how GRRM describes it, because he is describing from POV characters who do not have that knowledge. I do think that he is telling what is essentially an eco tale a heart. The first chapter he wrote was the kids finding the wolves and he is a naturalist/wolf lover himself.

Rather than humans breaking the world with oil rigs, or magic (as in WoT, which I haven't read) I think he'll end up saying they broke it with blood magic and dragons. That bringing dragons into the world was inherently unnatural and dangerous.

I'm with you on the eco-tale part. I was just curious about what you've put forward as some of the mechanical explanations for the seasons. I'm at work I only scanned your pervious posts, (apologize if I get your points wrong) but you seem to be saying that a horizontal line on the maps may cross several latitudes because the poles may be errant and that the variation in sessions may be because of erratic procession/nutation.

Those were my first thoughts too. But the fact that by earth middle ages sailors 1, knew where the equator was (and had since antiquity), 2 could easily tell their north/south position to it (east/west...not so much) leads me to believe that the sailors of planetos have similar knowledge. So the north/south locations on the maps, I think can be regarded as accurate(ish) regardless of magnetic variation.

This also casts doubt on the procession/nutation hypothesis, because a pole start could not be identified and the ecliptic and fixed stars would shift wildly across the sky. This would make maritime navigation impossible.

I think we have to just except "magic" as the cause for now. My guess is that something "drinks" the warmth and light during winter. Similar to the oily stone drinking light in Asshai.

[Waters Gate]

Ive come to think about another theory:

It might have been that Asshai might have once been inhabited by creature's made practicly purely of fire, a race elementally opposite to the others. The oily stone out of which Asshai is build is a sort of shale oil stone i think, the city might have used to be on fire all the time, simply confterable for fire beings.

The others and the fire beings are the one's who create the whacky seasons. it's a matter of ballance, more others might lead to colder weather or vice versa. Thats why the others are making more babies. For that might spread winter. Simmilarly the dissapearance of fire beings might work to the others and winter's advantage. Thats why i think Dany has to go to Asshai, for she is needed to set the city on flame again.

And a city that would be all the time on fire would create quite a bit of ash i guess. Otoh the area around it would be well lit i guess.

[ummester]

I'm with you on the eco-tale part. I was just curious about what you've put forward as some of the mechanical explanations for the seasons. I'm at work I only scanned your pervious posts, (apologize if I get your points wrong) but you seem to be saying that a horizontal line on the maps may cross several latitudes because the poles may be errant and that the variation in sessions may be because of erratic procession/nutation.

Those were my first thoughts too. But the fact that by earth middle ages sailors 1, knew where the equator was (and had since antiquity), 2 could easily tell their north/south position to it (east/west...not so much) leads me to believe that the sailors of planetos have similar knowledge. So the north/south locations on the maps, I think can be regarded as accurate(ish) regardless of magnetic variation.

This also casts doubt on the procession/nutation hypothesis, because a pole start could not be identified and the ecliptic and fixed stars would shift wildly across the sky. This would make maritime navigation impossible.

Not many sailors on Planetos venture far from the coasts, do they?

And there are rumours of boats lost south of Essos showing up as wrecks north of the wall.

When Euron left the Iron Islands, Asha described him as going into the deep of the Sunset Sea. Even the Iron Islanders, who are arguably the most maritime race, stick to the coast. Apart from Euron.

I would suggest that, depending on the time of year, mariners from Planetos cannot navigate. This is why they stick to the coast.

Brave mariners go north of Essos, into the shimmering sea and find only whales and ice - because they run into a very large northern(ish) polar region.

No one has explored the sunset sea, I think, because you cant. If you go too far into open water on Planetos, you get lost, because the planet's axis of rotation is always shifting over time. In winters, I think the axis aligns closer to the poles (Lands of Always Winter and Ulthos) being up and down, in summers, it drifts away.

[ummester]

I do think, H0X0, that the explanation will ultimately be more magical than mechanical and that this will just be dragons and dragonfire disrupting the environment.

I foresee a situation where Sam reads a very old tome, from Asshai. A tome hidden, or long forgotten, which explains something like:

Before the Long Night the Lands of Always Winter were not a frozen realm, nor was Asshai a place of such darkness and heat. At this time, the land of Ulthos, south of Asshai, was as cold as the world to the north.

Then, hungry for fire and blood, the old people of Asshai birthed dragons into the world. Once born, the dragons could little be controlled and burnt their way across the lands. More and more dragons were born, as the Asshai'i tried to bond with them and control what they had released. Yet, for each dragon that could be bonded, two more could not.

So prolific were the dragons in the lands around Asshai, that these places were burnt worst of all. In the end, Ulthos itself was burnt and the coldness taken from it.

Then the world shook and the Long Night came.

Don't forget, also, that TWoIaF shows people living quite happily in The Lands of Always Winter, before the Long Night. It is only after the Long Night the people and giants were driven south.

As the ice in the south melted, the ice in the north grew and now Planetos has an axis that varies with season. It's magical but grounded is pseudoscience, as the world of ASoIaF is.

[Werthead]

On the size of the planet front, GRRM used to say it was larger than Earth. Later on, post ADWD, he seemed to change his mind and suggested that his planet is an alternate version of Earth, and therefore is the same size. This tracks by following the end of the treeline on his planet (the northern edge of the Haunted Forest, it appears) and then mapping the scale down to Dorne (where there are deserts) and Sothoryos (where there are jungles). The conclusion is that the equator either runs through the Summer Islands and northern tip of Sothoryos, roughly through the Shadow Lands, or is a few hundred miles further south near the southern edge of the LoIaF world map (or just a bit past it), so it goes through Ulthos.

Don't forget, also, that TWoIaF shows people living quite happily in The Lands of Always Winter, before the Long Night. It is only after the Long Night the people and giants were driven south.

Correct, but people live quite happly in real far northern climes today, despite the cold. The people and giants were driven south by the Others, and were not too keen on going back again (although some did, to Thenn, which is very far north).

[ummester]

If GRRM shrunk the planet once Werthead, he can shrink it again.

Also, the conclusion being drawn with the climatic zones more or less equalling Earth would imply that the northern polar region should more or less equal the size of Earth's - which the Lands of Always Winter clearly supersede.

Finally, there is nothing conclusive that the Others pushed the giants south. There is nothing conclusive as to whether the Others brought the cold or the cold brought the Others.

And even Eskimos can't sustain in the absolute polar regions :D We can now, with modern tech - but no-one could before.

Just on this - the reason polar regions region icy is because they are the places on a planet that consistently get less sun. The reason lands around the equator are temperate is because they consistently get more sun.

If the planet from ASoIaF does undergo fairly large axial tilts, which cause unpredictable seasons, there would not be a consistent temperate zone.

I don't think it is wise to try and estimate where the equator is by Earth standards, when the world in ASoIaF clearly has different weather patterns to Earth and clearly has a much larger northern polar region.

[H0X0]

Not many sailors on Planetos venture far from the coasts, do they?

And there are rumours of boats lost south of Essos showing up as wrecks north of the wall.

When Euron left the Iron Islands, Asha described him as going into the deep of the Sunset Sea. Even the Iron Islanders, who are arguably the most maritime race, stick to the coast. Apart from Euron.

I would suggest that, depending on the time of year, mariners from Planetos cannot navigate. This is why they stick to the coast.

Brave mariners go north of Essos, into the shimmering sea and find only whales and ice - because they run into a very large northern(ish) polar region.

No one has explored the sunset sea, I think, because you cant. If you go too far into open water on Planetos, you get lost, because the planet's axis of rotation is always shifting over time. In winters, I think the axis aligns closer to the poles (Lands of Always Winter and Ulthos) being up and down, in summers, it drifts away.

I thought you might be on to something there, but I'm afraid the text disagrees in no uncertain terms.

To starboard of Allards Lady Marya were the three galleys that Stannis had seized from the unfortunate Lord Sunglass, Piety, Prayer, and Devotion, their decks crawling with archers.

Davos III AFfC

Starboard is a term derived from celestial navigation and this term is used quite often. As is larboard. I thought that might have been an archaic term for starboard and used intentionally to avoid mentioning stars. It's actually derived from ladeboard, the side of the ship cargo is put on by(port). So there a clear tie between stars and sailing.

Also

But once they struck out into deeper waters, there was only sea and sky, air and water.

Tyrion VIII ADwD

This was the perfumed seneschal, not a brave adventurous exploring craft. So sailing beyond sight of land seems routine.

Sorry to crack your pot.

[ummester]

It's not quite cracking it H0X0, because a short ocean voyage will always be possible.

The northern stars would still be (mostly) in the northern hemisphere and the southern stars (mostly) in the southern, just changing, quite vastly, between summer and winter.

Any sailing (any movement without known landmarks, actually) at night must require the stars, what else is there to determine direction by? None of those pieces of text prove it is possible for mariners in the world of ASoIaF to go on long, open ocean voyages and not get lost.

Davos dreams of following the southern coast of Essos with his sons one day, not sailing out into the ocean.

I thought, in that chapter, Tyrion was sailing on a river - that river where the big turtles and greyscale are - the Royne or something. Or is he in the narrow sea? Either way, I didn't think he was on an open ocean voyage.

The only character that I think has made a continental crossing by any means other than the narrow sea is Euron - and I think he does this by sailing south, as much, if not more, than west to get from the Iron Islands to Asshai.

If you started sailing west from the Iron Islands in summer and kept sailing into winter, I don't think the stars would point you west anymore. Crossing the narrow sea or keeping close to a coast, you wouldn't run into that problem and, sailing more south, the problem would be less pronounced.

[Clueless Northman]

I quite agree with Werth. Considering the climates and the size of the planet and continents, I'd say the Equator mor or less goes through the Jade Sea and close to Qarth and the various straits (Qarth being slightly North).

The size of Asshai makes me believe that the city must have had a million poppulation at some point, probably long ago.

Volantis has probably close to 1 million people, since it's obviously the largest surviving Valyrian city, and it's said other cities are bigger than King's Landing (500.000), but then smaller than Volantis.

As described, Asshai would be able to host 3 mio people. (which is downright crazy since only the industrial revolution allowed us to go beyond the 1.5 mio mark on Earth, and antique cities like Asshai when it prospered hit the 300.000 mark at best)

Yi Ti would already be a sizable civilization before the Long Night, so I don't see them shipping food to Asshai. The "Shadow Lands" obviously were fertile earlier, but that would only work to kickstart Asshai. Then, the only food source that makes any sense is indeed Ulthos. And after the decadence of Asshai, the Long Night and the like, most of Ulthos gets depopulated, doesn't have to feed a millions-wide city anymore, and forests take over the whole area - if it can happen in 1.000 years or less in Mexico, it can obviously happen in 4/6/8.000 years there.

[H0X0]

It's not quite cracking it H0X0, because a short ocean voyage will always be possible.

The northern stars would still be (mostly) in the northern hemisphere and the southern stars (mostly) in the southern, just changing, quite vastly, between summer and winter.

Any sailing (any movement without known landmarks, actually) at night must require the stars, what else is there to determine direction by? None of those pieces of text prove it is possible for mariners in the world of ASoIaF to go on long, open ocean voyages and not get lost.

Davos dreams of following the southern coast of Essos with his sons one day, not sailing out into the ocean.

I thought, in that chapter, Tyrion was sailing on a river - that river where the big turtles and greyscale are - the Royne or something. Or is he in the narrow sea? Either way, I didn't think he was on an open ocean voyage.

The only character that I think has made a continental crossing by any means other than the narrow sea is Euron - and I think he does this by sailing south, as much, if not more, than west to get from the Iron Islands to Asshai.

If you started sailing west from the Iron Islands in summer and kept sailing into winter, I don't think the stars would point you west anymore. Crossing the narrow sea or keeping close to a coast, you wouldn't run into that problem and, sailing more south, the problem would be less pronounced.

I suppose it would depend on how much tilt varied. And as I'm thinking about it, losing a moon suddenly would have profound effects on orbital stability... And the maesters observe the stars to determine seasons...

But I'm going to remain unconvinced, because the ice dragon is always north. It would have to be so late as have no meaning.

And looking at the map the summer issues are easily months of open water from sight of land.

But the sailors can't be so far off as to not realize that sothyros in in an entirely different hemisphere. Plus there's likely doldrums near wherever the equator is. Those would surely be noticed.

Slightly off topic...

Lord Stannis Baratheons refuge was a great round room with walls of bare black stone and four tall narrow windows that looked out to the four points of the compass.

Prologue AFfC

Only mention of compass in all the text

[ummester]

GRRM is a good writer H0X0 - but he is probably using some words as a relatable way to describe things to the reader, without thinking quite so much if the word is logically relevant to the world he is describing in all cases.

The moon is the other option. A piece of it broke off, hit the planet somewhere, broke the alignment and dragons were born from that. Of course, moons rotate around planets, so if a planet had a polar reversal, it could have effected the moon.

That the moon and dragon origins are related is relevant, I think, so would edit my above mythology to include:

Then the world shook, a moon fell from the sky and the Long Night came.

[ummester]

I was just reading this - I hadn't read this before I starting thinking about this off axis, polar displacement idea

http://io9.com/5906300/5-scientific-explanations-for-game-of-thrones-messed-up-seasons

According to this article a moon leaving orbit would also effect the planets axial tilt and change the seasons.

[Werthead]

If GRRM shrunk the planet once Werthead, he can shrink it again.

Not without making the planet too small to support the climactic zones he has already put in place.

Also, the conclusion being drawn with the climatic zones more or less equalling Earth would imply that the northern polar region should more or less equal the size of Earth's - which the Lands of Always Winter clearly supersede.

The presence of the Others and the heart of winter in the far north could be responsible for any enlarged northern polar region. However, it is unclear if the icy northern regions on the planet do indeed superscede the size of Earth's. There is no evidence this is the case. The maps people have been working with put the end of the treeline around Thenn on the same latitude as the northern parts of Sweden and Norway (where the trees stop growing in the real world), with considerable amounts of territory to the north until you get to the actual north pole. Also, the northern end of the treeline in Scandanvia is partly down to the Gulf Stream. In other parts of the world it's a lot further south. It certainly is in Canada, which is what GRRM has compared the Lands of Always Winter to.

Finally, there is nothing conclusive that the Others pushed the giants south. There is nothing conclusive as to whether the Others brought the cold or the cold brought the Others.

Agreed to the latter, but the former has some fair evidence for it, such as the giants helping to build the Wall (although curiously they did not stick around behind it, but ventured back north again).

And even Eskimos can't sustain in the absolute polar regions :D We can now, with modern tech - but no-one could before.

True, but we're not talking about the absolute polar regions. Thenn would be as far north maybe as Greenland, northern Scandanvia or the archipelago north of Canada, where people all live rather happily (if frostily).

If the planet from ASoIaF does undergo fairly large axial tilts, which cause unpredictable seasons, there would not be a consistent temperate zone.

GRRM has ruled out any kind of scientific explanation for the seasons - WoIaF even says it explicitly in-text - and the axial wobble theory is one he has personally refuted in the past, along with multi-star systems, invisible brown dwarfs, etc. Both the novels and WoIaF even say that the maesters keep a careful track on the progress of the stars and there is no evidence for such a wobble, plus we see stellar navigation in the books (following the ice dragon north) whic would not be possible with this kind of axial tilt.

Such a wobble/tilt on such a short timeframe would also regularly cause the oceans of the planet to heavily flood the coastlines of the continents. Such a wobble/tilt is also impossible because of the presence of GRRMworld's moon. If the Dothraki legends of a prior moon are correct, that could have had some bearing on the situation, but not eight or ten thousand (or more) years later.

[ummester]

Have you got the bits where GRRM debunked the axial wobble Werthead? I only ask because whatever answer he gave may assist the discussion.

Also, by WoIaF do you mean this current book TWoIaF, or is it another one?

I did find this GRRM answer to a related question:

[Are the seasons irregular only in Westeros or also in the eastern continent?]

The eastern continent (Essos) is further south than Westeros, and feels the North of the great sweep of the eastern sweep of the eastern lands is a huge ocean, the Shivering Sea. Only Westeros extends to the far north.

This seems to suggest that winter doesn't effect Essos - so the Long Night seems to have been a one off event unrelated to the coming winter.

[farm_ecology]

While martin is a Sci-Fi writer, I am absolutely certain that the strange seasons will not be explained with a Sci-Fi answer. That means the problem will not be caused by anything astronomical. I am 100% certain about this.

It is likely the seasons are strange because that's just how seasons work in this fantasy universe, and that the changes in the seasons are caused by something magical. The actual reason why seasons are governed by this magical cause and not astromony will be "just because".

Are we even sure whether about some of the basics of astronomy in the world?

1) Is the Sun a physical object? Is it a Star in the scientific sense, or is it a magical object?

2) Does Planetos orbit the Sun? Are orbits even a thing?

3) Is the Moon a physical object?

Most importantly, Martin's unsureness about the size of Planetos makes me think these are questions which will not be answered, and are irrelevant to the workings of the world.

As a side note, I had a theory that the moon and it's phases did not work in the same way as the real moon. Specifically the mentions of the phase of the moon, and whether they are tied to location, or if they are mentioned to indicate the passage of time. Though I never got round to checking all of the references to the moon in the series.

[H0X0]

Have you got the bits where GRRM debunked the axial wobble Werthead? I only ask because whatever answer he gave may assist the discussion.

Also, by WoIaF do you mean this current book TWoIaF, or is it another one?

I did find this GRRM answer to a related question:

[Are the seasons irregular only in Westeros or also in the eastern continent?]

The eastern continent (Essos) is further south than Westeros, and feels the North of the great sweep of the eastern sweep of the eastern lands is a huge ocean, the Shivering Sea. Only Westeros extends to the far north.

This seems to suggest that winter doesn't effect Essos - so the Long Nightseems to have been a one off event unrelated to the coming winter.

I was thinking about this this morning, and I can cede that orbital scarifier may be odd for planetos, but not so odd as to cause the kind of irregular pattern of the seasons or to radically change the shape ofthe maps.

In addition to the other reasons (navigation, flooding), in the northern hemisphere, the sun is always south of zenith, in the southern, north, regardless of tilt. This would be noticed. I have to conclude that the whole map add we see it is in the northern hemisphere.

Also a long night scenario would require the period of procession to be close the one year (so that one pole always faces the sun). This would be dramatic.

Yeah, I've seen that article before <brag>I had thought of those ideas before I read it<\brag>. But eventually I have to dismiss them and say "magic" (with some disappointment)

I just don't think George is that much into astronomy or writing hard science fiction. But it's a fun thought exercise

[ummester]

Yeah, I've seen that article before <brag>I had thought of those ideas before I read it<\brag>. But eventually I have to dismiss them and say "magic" (with some disappointment)

I just don't think George is that much into astronomy or writing hard science fiction. But it's a fun thought exercise

True story :D I did - I found that article searching for whether GRRM had talked about axial tilt or not.

Didn't he start as a Sci Fi writer? Doesn't he claim Sci Fi was his first writing passion?

I concede that the north star wouldn't stay so true to north, in both winter and summer, if Planetos had different tilts thrue both of them. It's really the star, more than anything else, that undoes it for me.

Strange that GRRM has put evidence suggesting some type of climatic event if he is not going to follow up on it though. Global darkness, land bridges separating, east/west north/south prophecy - and in the end the Children of the Forrest are probably digging their way from Asshai, to the doom to the lands of Always Winter or some shit that will seem pretty lame in comparison :D

[OmnomnomPomelo]

I was waiting for R'hllor to be mentioned that in which city its religion was born since we know R'hllor throught Asshaii Melisandre and Thoros of Myr. Now I think that it wouldn't be a surprise if this religion was born in Asshai, since there is darkness everywhere and dark stones which sucks the light so the people sure can be a little affraid from the darkness. Also it's said in the book that there is light in 1 window/house from every 10 and since the dark stones suck light I think that these one lights are the lights of the (dragon)glass candles.