[TWOIAF Spoilers] Aerys and Joanna II

[Suzanna Stormborn]

We assume from the fact that the two noble guys failing to become dragonriders suggests that they did not have Targaryen/dragonlord blood at all, but that's not actually a given. Both the Darklyns and the Masseys could have either married a Targaryen woman, or a Velaryon or Celtigar woman who had Targaryen ancestors. Thus both those families could have a drop of dragonlord blood.

Any Massey-Targaryen or Darklyn-Targaryen match would have occurred prior to the Conquest, of course. But Darklyn-Velaryon/Celtigar match or a Massey-Velaryon/Celtigar match is easily possible a generation before the Dance or so. Since we don't know the family trees we cannot rule that out.

And that's actually not all that unlikely considering that Rhaenyra/Jace could not have had any interest to risk losing the Lord Commander of the Queensguard or Lord Massey. Thus they might have interfered and stopped those men from trying to mount a dragon if they had reason to believe they lacked the ability to claim a dragon. It is more or less confirmed that they believed Targaryen/dragonlord blood was necessary.

On the other hand, the whole nature of Jace's proposal is essentially: Everyone can try to claim a dragon. Whoever succeeds, gets a knighthood (and would have essentially a dragon). You don't convince people to try it if you say 'Well, actually, I don't think it is likely that you can succeed.'

Thus, if Massey and Darklyn insisted that they wanted to try, they may have allowed it despite the fact that they were pretty sure that they would fail. However, I don't think that Darklyn would have been as stupid as to not heed the advice/opinion of his queen and prince in the matter, so if Jace/Rhaenyra had believed he had no Targaryen blood he would most likely have not been permitted to try (as a KG they could have commanded him to stay away from the dragons).

Yeah I totally agree, just because something already seems unlikely, if there is a knighthood waiting at the other end, many many common folk would give it the old college try at least.

Not to mention that if you grew up near or around dragonstone you might have no idea if you have dragonblood in your family. So might as well see if the dragons like you.

Lol, but in PATQ it makes it quite clear that the first few waves saw many burns and deaths, so the person attempting would have to be incredibly brave or incredibly drunk to try after seeing so many fail and die.

[Mithras]

Excuse me but the attempts to give Targ blood to Massey/Darklyn (and to Jon Roxton who was forgotten) or reducing the whole thing to "desperate times, desperates measures" seems ridiculous to me.

[Lord Varys]

Well, you were desperately trying to give Targaryen blood to the Lannisters via Elaena or her children (for which you had no textual basis whatsoever), why can't I do the same to the Darklyns/Masseys? A marriage between the Darklyns - the wealthy rulers of the most prosperous eastern coast harbor prior to the Conquest, after - and the wealthy rulers of Dragonstone is entirely possible. And it is even more likely with the Masseys, considering that they, for some reason, were close to the Targaryens even before the Conquest and on Aegon's council when he decided to invade.

Wasn't Jon Roxton killed by Hugh Hammer's cronies after he killed him? He never tried to claim a dragon.

[Maia]

Wasn't Jon Roxton killed by Hugh Hammer's cronies after he killed him? He never tried to claim a dragon.

To be fair, he intended to try, he just didn't get to it. However _he_ was clearly operating on the same kind of logic that the naysayers on this forum employ - he saw all these dragonseeds being successful even though some of their pedigrees were unclear, and decided that maybe the blood was not necessary, after all. Nor did they have anybody who might have had Targaryen blood in their ranks, while to their knowledge Rhaenyra still had a few dragons with riders, so desperate times called for desperate measures. The 2 knights, who did try to claim Silverwing were unsuccessful, however.

But the Blacks in the beginning of the war were in a very different situation and both Massey and Darklyn would have been quite important for their initial war effort, so I don't see them being so cavalierly sacrificed. Massey's ties to Dragonstone even pre-Conquest have been mentioned for a reason, I am sure.

[Blind Beth the Cat Lady]

I had been resisting the idea of A+J=T for a long time, partly because I thought the clues were a bit scurrilous and partly because I loved the conflict and comparison/contrast in Tyrion and Tywin’s relationship. I felt that would be undermined by Tyrion actually not being his son.

But after reading the Worldbook I feel differently. I think the extremely detailed play-by-play of Tywin and Aerys’s relationship pretty much proves that this theory is true. Because why dwell on the “Aerys might have slept with Joanna, specifically slightly a year before Tyrion--who was deformed in similar ways to Aerys’s stillborns--was born” thing if nothing’s going to come of it? Red herring? I kind of doubt it. I think we’re over the “mystery hump” in the story, and going forward we’ll see many more old predictions/prophecies/mysterys conclude than new ones pop up. Even if there are really 8 books and not 7. (GEORGE!!! *shakes fist at sky*) “Jon’s mom was Wyla” is a red herring. “Look at this super long string of subtle but clear clues” is not a red herring, IMO.

So the Worldbook cleared up my logistical and logical objections to the theory.

But my emotional ones remained.

1. Seriously, is anyone in this series *not* secretly half-Targaryen?
   
2. If Tyrion is not actually Tywin’s son, then…wtf? What was ALL of their character development for the first 3 books all about?
   

But the more I think about it, the more I’m actually ok with it. I started thinking it was probably true due to logic before I was ok with it emotionally, so I was mad at god GRRM for awhile, but here’s why I’m now 100% on board:

1) If Tyrion, Jon, and Dany are meant to be the three heads of the dragon, and all of that is meant to culminate slowly over the whole series, then A+J=T is completely legit from a narrative perspective. And the Starks, Lannisters, and Targaryens are sort of the main three houses in the story—not the most powerful houses, or even always the most interesting houses, but they are all introduced very early in the first book and all remain in play (representative members of even if not able to act as groups), and all have recent significant history with each other. Tyrion being half Lannister/half Targ therefore counters nicely with Jon being half Stark/half Targ. So with Dany being full Targ we would end up with a triumvirate (or “triarchy”—also noted from the Worldbook is GRRM’s love of triarchies) that not only includes three “heads of the Dragon” (scions of House Targ) but also binds our three most (narratively) important houses—Targ, Stark, and Lannister. I heart symmetry.

2) Yet another thing that is made clear in the Worldbook is that Tywin and Aerys were total bros at one time. Their relationship becomes really serious and close when Tywin first becomes hand, then it gets cold, then rocky, then explosive, then back to just rocky, then Aerys (probably) rapes Tywin’s wife and Tywin’s son (definitely, literally) stabs Aerys in the back. That has Bad Romance written all over it. Maybe Tywin and Joanna were able to have such a copacetic marriage because Tywin was in a platonic Bad Romance with Aerys the whole time. The longevity, closeness, and complicated-ness of the Tywin/Aerys relationship makes me feel that Tyrion being biologically Aerys’s son while being raised by Tywin in a long, rocky, complicated father-son relationship is actually totally logical and, to me at least, satisfying. It also makes Tywin’s hatred of Tyrion make sense. Not just that Tyrion killed the love of Tywin’s life, not just that Tyrion might be a bastard, but that Tyrion might be the bastard son of AERYS F*CKING TARGARYEN of all the f*cking people.

I don’t know that any of us were meant to put this together yet, but the clues are there. The hair. The eyes. The rocky and complicated relationship with Tywin. The timing. The possibilities.

Now I’m just sad I have to stop shipping Tyrion and Sansa.

[Winterfell is Burning]

Now I’m just sad I have to stop shipping Tyrion and Sansa.

Well, if you're going to stop shipping Tyrion and Sansa, at least something good came out of it :P

[Rhaechyll Targaryen]

1. Seriously, is anyone in this series *not* secretly half-Targaryen?

Jon and Tyrion would be the only secret Targs and only Jon would maybe be legitimate. Is that really too much?

I'm not feeling how this is overkill especially since they'd be two very different reveals. Aegon is probably fake IMO.

And the Starks, Lannisters, and Targaryens are sort of the main three houses in the story—not the most powerful houses, or even always the most interesting houses, but they are all introduced very early in the first book and all remain in play (representative members of even if not able to act as groups), and all have recent significant history with each other. Tyrion being half Lannister/half Targ therefore counters nicely with Jon being half Stark/half Targ. So with Dany being full Targ we would end up with a triumvirate (or “triarchy”—also noted from the Worldbook is GRRM’s love of triarchies) that not only includes three “heads of the Dragon” (scions of House Targ) but also binds our three most (narratively) important houses—Targ, Stark, and Lannister. I heart symmetry.

Well said, ITA.

I admit to being a bit biased though because those also happen to be my favorite houses as far as the great ones.

[Mithras]

... Because why dwell on the “Aerys might have slept with Joanna, specifically slightly a year before Tyrion--who was deformed in similar ways to Aerys’s stillborns--was born” thing if nothing’s going to come of it? ...

Maegor's kids were the deformed ones. In the case of Aerys, no deformity was reported; only stillbirths and miscarriages.

[stangles]

The exact wording is 'enjoyed a brief reign as his paramour'.

Where does it say this? I can only find a vague line with Raella telling Aerys to stop turning her ladies into whores on pg 115 of the world book. Then she dismissed Joanna from court. I can't remember anything about her being a paramour. Which section is that statement in?

[The King's Justice]

Maegor's kids were the deformed ones. In the case of Aerys, no deformity was reported; only stillbirths and miscarriages.

i'm quite sure it says in the world book at least one of Aerys kids had a tail or bat wings or something.

I've always thought that Tyrion is a secret targ, but no-one knows for sure, even now. the only fact is it's definitely a major possibility. After reading all the clues i think it is even more likely to be true now. Now the world book adds more clues it seems more likely and I'm happy with that.

..... I'd love to find the guy who commented on one of my posts like a year ago saying "Tyrion cant be a targ, terrible writing, no real clues, red herring definitely bla bla bla", when all I was saying is you cant deny there are a lot of clues. It's probably true people!

probably ....

[Dany's Golden Fleece]

How can 'three heads = three dragonriders' be a red herring if you have to read your posts to draw that conclusion? If my memory does not escapes me, then no line in the books actually claims that the three heads of the dragon from the Rhaegar vision are supposed to ride Dany's dragons.

In fact, considering the fact that Jon is usually considered to be a dragon head, it is very unlikely to assume that he gets even the chance to claim one of Dany's dragons, because he could, well, be assassinated long before they even reach Westeros. Not to mention that the dragons could die before they reach Westeros, or they may be firmly in control of different riders by then, or simply never ever meet Jon Snow.

If George had hammered home the fact that the dragon heads from the vision should eventually ride Dany's dragons one could start debating whether this was an attempt to mislead people. But this is not done once in this series. The only 'theory' in regards to the dragon heads is that Jorah thinks that they could be Dany's two husbands, a sort of mirror image of Aegon and his sister-wives. However, that's only Jorah in love speaking. Dany must not marry any of the dragon heads or any other dragonrider (although it might actually be a smart move politically).

I was just thinking about the three riders thing last night. I think we can agree GRRM likes repeating/mirroring history.

Daenerys and two husbands would mirror Aegon and two wives - each bore him a son. I think that is what Rhaegar was trying to go for, two wives (even though illegal by Westerosi law) and two sons (although Rhaegar has a daughter - and hence why he was wrong about his prophecy).

Also Aegon, married his two sisters - one out of desire (Rhaenys) and one out of duty (Visenya)

Will Daenerys marry her half-brother and nephew - one out of desire (Jon) and one out of duty (Tyrion), producing (a mirror) a daughter each.

And with Aegon's desire Rhaenys dying in the south, will Daenerys desire (Jon) die in the North? Mirror.

I do think the House of the Undying prophecies (the only prophecies that seem to be correct), suggest that Daenerys and Jon will meet and have sex.

Just a thought.

[oba]

i'm quite sure it says in the world book at least one of Aerys kids had a tail or bat wings or something.

I don't think so. These are the only references I could find to Rhaella's stillbirths/miscarriages. No specific mention of any deformities.

“Miscarriages in 263 and 264 were followed by a stillborn daughter born in 267. Prince Daeron, born in 269, survived for only half a year. Then came another stillbirth in 270, another miscarriage in 271, and Prince Aegon, born two turns premature in 272, dead in 273.”

“The march of the king’s madness seemed to abate for a time in 274 AC, when Queen Rhaella gave birth to a son. So profound was His Grace’s joy that it seemed to restore him to his old self once again . . . but Prince Jaehaerys died later that same year, plunging Aerys into despair.”

Shaena, is "the stillborn daughter born in 267." She's mentioned parenthetically elsewhere as "(Her Grace was pregnant with the child who proved to be the stillborn Princess Shaena)" Again, no mention of any deformities.

[Lord Varys]

Deformities are indeed not mentioned, but something must have been wrong at least with the stillbirths and those children who were not born prematurely and died anyway shortly after birth. Talking about Targaryen princes and princesses we should not assume they were healthy and well and just died of the usual things. Those were all royal children, and they should have gotten the best medical care in all Westeros - which really was much better than what people did in the real middle ages.

Stillbirths fit the Visenya/Rhaego pattern, and the children dying in the cradle would match monstrosities in general. Note that Jaehaerys II was also partially a monstrosity which could explain why he was his sick all his life.

[Arya Stark Rules]

Im on board with this theory now. The world book pretty much had me convinced.

and this dream in ADWD

That night Tyrion Lannister dreamed of a battle that turned the hills of Westeros as red as blood. He was in the midst of it, dealing death with an axe as big as he was, fighting side by side with Barristan the Bold and Bittersteel as dragons wheeled across the sky above them. In the dream he had two heads, both noseless. His father led the enemy, so he slew him once again. Then he killed his brother, Jaime, hacking at his face until it was a red ruin, laughing every time he struck a blow. Only when the fight was finished did he realize that his second head was weeping.

Two heads show Tyrion as half Targaryen and half Lannister.

[Blind Beth the Cat Lady]

Im on board with this theory now. The world book pretty much had me convinced.

and this dream in ADWD

Two heads show Tyrion as half Targaryen and half Lannister.

I think this particular dream may just be showing us Tyrion's psychology at the time. I.e., the two heads just show that he's of two minds about his family (as per usual, but now even more so)--both loving them because they're family and hating them because of what they've done to him.

[UnmaskedLurker]

I think this particular dream may just be showing us Tyrion's psychology at the time. I.e., the two heads just show that he's of two minds about his family (as per usual, but now even more so)--both loving them because they're family and hating them because of what they've done to him.

Every clue has a "cover meaning" so that it is not too obvious what GRRM is trying to hint at. So yes, maybe it means that--but when taken with all the other clues regarding A+J=T, it seems quite possible that it represents his Targ half laughing and his Lannister half weeping. It it the totality of the clues--rather than any one clue--that makes the theory convincing.

[Dany's Golden Fleece]

To be fair, I never really paid much attention to the A+J=T or A+J= J+C theories, because I thought they were really out there. After TWOIAF A+J= J+C can be wiped out, but A+J=T has gained ground in my estimation. With Elio saying that GRRM purposefully put those in and admitting (even though he dislikes the theory), A+J=T has to be removed from the crackpot self and into the mainstream.

[UnmaskedLurker]

To be fair, I never really paid much attention to the A+J=T or A+J= J+C theories, because I thought they were really out there. After TWOIAF A+J= J+C can be wiped out, but A+J=T has gained ground in my estimation. With Elio saying that GRRM purposefully put those in and admitting (even though he dislikes the theory), A+J=T has to be removed from the crackpot self and into the mainstream.

I became convinced of the likelihood of A+J=T after reading the original A+J=T thread at least a year ago. I was not bothered by people who were not convinced -- the evidence is still not iron clad. But it really bothered me when people would dismiss the theory as crackpot. It was never crackpot. There were always sufficient clues to make it possible. Some people just bristled so strongly at the idea of "another hidden Targ" or "ruining the Tyrion/Tywin relationship" that the idea just seemed unreasonable to them. But objective analysis always should have considered the possibility as more than crackpot, and now with the additional clues that were added by GRRM in WoIaF, the likelihood seems much stronger. At least I don't have to read as many posts about how Tyrion is definitely a full Lannister and any theory to the contrary is mere crackpot.

[stangles]

Where does it say this? I can only find a vague line with Raella telling Aerys to stop turning her ladies into whores on pg 115 of the world book. Then she dismissed Joanna from court. I can't remember anything about her being a paramour. Which section is that statement in?

Ok I finally found it. It says it is a RUMOUR that she had a brief reign as paramour. So its not fact. And even if it is true that they had sex a few times based off Joanna being sent away this was ages before Tyrion was born.

[UnmaskedLurker]

Ok I finally found it. It says it is a RUMOUR that she had a brief reign as paramour. So its not fact. And even if it is true that they had sex a few times based off Joanna being sent away this was ages before Tyrion was born.

Yes, we have been over this in excruciating detail above. First, while it is not 100% confirmed that Aerys and Joanna had an affair, the reference to Rhaella dismissing Joanna from service because Aerys was turning her into a whore is a strong clue that some sort of sexual relationship happened between Aerys and Joanna. The additional clue that Aerys might be the father of Tyrion is that after Joanna left KL, she seldom returned but one of the occasions when she returned was in 272 AC, the year prior to the birth of Tyrion. And Aerys makes a humiliating sexual remark to Joanna at that time. Does that prove they had sex in 272? Of course not. But it is suggestive given that GRRM would have included this information for some reason. Taken with all the other little clues that have been dropped, it is another clue in favor of A+J=T. Does any one clue prove anything? No. Do all the clues taken together act as a pretty strong suggestion that A+J=T is true? Yes.