R+L=J v.112

[The Twinslayer]

Who would legitimize him, exactly?

.

Robb.

Rhaegar did not need Jon to be a prince. He thought Aegon was the Prince that was Promised. Rhaegar just needed a third head, and the third head does not need to be a Targaryen.

If -- big if -- Jon is the Prince that was Promised, then the "Prince" part comes from Robb's will.

[The Twinslayer]

"Maegor the Cruel has multiple wives, from lines outside his own, so there was and is precedent. However, the extent to which the Targaryen kings could defy convention, the Faith, and the opinions of the other lords decreased markedly after they no longer had dragons. If you have a dragon, you can have as many wives as you want, and people are less likely to object."

Conventions, the Faith, opinions. Not a word about defying Iaw. Interesting, isn't it?

ETA: Can't believe I've overlooked this: "was and is" precedent. Is. Present Tense. Still valid, just complicated to pull. Polygamy is not illegal, QED.

I don't follow this. There is precedent in the United States for a person to be elected President more than twice. Franklin Roosevelt did it. But it is illegal, because after Roosevelt did it the law was changed.

So polygamy in Westeros is not unprecedented, but it is (very likely) illegal.

[sj4iy]

Robb.

Rhaegar did not need Jon to be a prince. He thought Aegon was the Prince that was Promised. Rhaegar just needed a third head, and the third head does not need to be a Targaryen.

If -- big if -- Jon is the Prince that was Promised,mine "Prince" part comes from Robb's will.

That's not the point.

It's about what RHAEGAR thought, not about what may or may not happen later.

If Rhaegar thinks he needs a dragon for the third head, or a prince, he's going to make sure that child IS a dragon and IS a prince...it's not something he would leave to chance. Whatever Robb does 16 years later has absolutely no effect whatsoever on Rhaegar's decision at that time.

[sj4iy]

I don't follow this. There is precedent in the United States for a person to be elected President more than twice. Franklin Roosevelt did it. But it is illegal, because after Roosevelt did it the law was changed.

So polygamy in Westeros is not unprecedented, but it is (very likely) illegal.

False analogy.

1. The U.S. has a clear historical record of having made more than 2 terms illegal. There is no such record in the case of polygamy in Wedteros.

2. The U.S. Has a system of checks and balances to prevent any one branch from having too much power. Westeros has no such governmental system- what the king says, goes.

There is no proof at all that Rhaegar couldn't have legally gotten married. He had precedent and we have nothing that says "this absolutely cannot happen!" In fact, we have the exact opposite- we expected a monogamous culture and Martin GAVE us evidence supporting the possibility of polygamy. If that's not Chekhov's gun, I don't know what is.

[The Twinslayer]

That's not the point.

It's about what RHAEGAR thought, not about what may or may not happen later.

If Rhaegar thinks he needs a dragon for the third head, or a prince, he's going to make sure that child IS a dragon and IS a prince...it's not something he would leave to chance. Whatever Robb does 16 years later has absolutely no effect whatsoever on Rhaegar's decision at that time.

What I mean is that Rhaegar thought he had the Prince he needed -- Aegon.

Now what he wanted was a third head, which in his mind did not need to be a prince, or legitimate or whatever.

It would be very much in keeping with GRRM's style if it turns out Rhaegar was wrong, and the Prince that was Promised was not his heir but his bastard.

[BearQueen87]

What I mean is that Rhaegar thought he had the Prince he needed -- Aegon.

Now what he wanted was a third head, which in his mind did not need to be a prince, or legitimate or whatever.

It would be very much in keeping with GRRM's style if it turns out Rhaegar was wrong, and the Prince that was Promised was not his heir but his bastard.

Except there is a very good chance that Rhaegar changed his mind and realized that his son with Elia could NOT have/be the Song of Ice and Fire and be TPTWP. Lyanna is the Ice to his Fire.

and given the aborted Ice and Fire pact that was a marriage between a Targ and a Stark...yeah, I'd say that would be a big clue for Rhaegar

[The Twinslayer]

Except there is a very good chance that Rhaegar changed his mind and realized that his son with Elia could NOT have/be the Song of Ice and Fire and be TPTWP. Lyanna is the Ice to his Fire.

and given the aborted Ice and Fire pact that was a marriage between a Targ and a Stark...yeah, I'd say that would be a big clue for Rhaegar

He did not have long to change his mind. He thought Aegon was the PWWP after Aegon was born. He got Lyanna pregnant no more than a few months later (if Aegon was a year to 14 months old when Jon was born).

There is no reason to think he suddenly learned about the Pact of Ice and Fire a few weeks after Aegon was born. He was a bookish lad and probably always knew about it.

[BearQueen87]

He did not have long to change his mind. He thought Aegon was the PWWP after Aegon was born. He got Lyanna pregnant no more than a few months later (if Aegon was a year to 14 months old when Jon was born).

There is no reason to think he suddenly learned about the Pact of Ice and Fire a few weeks after Aegon was born. He was a bookish lad and probably always knew about it.

Unmasked Lurker and I believe it's a series of stages with Rhaegar.

Elia is sick after Aegon and cannot give him the third child to make the three heads of the dragon. At this time, Rhaegar is in communication with Lyanna and there are feelings of love and mutual respect. Rhaegar and Lyanna agree to go off together, married, and have his third child. At the time, Rhaegar believes the child is just the third head of the dragon.

But after R and L are married, I believe, things fell into place more. This is when his knowledge about the "pact" (keeping it just to pact since it's a spoiler and putting it in tags would interrupt the flow of conversation) is what triggers something in his head. Now married, House Stark and House Targaryen, he realizes the pact has been fulfilled meaning that any child they have has the qualities of that pact. This is when more blocks being to fall into place, as it were, and R realizes that the child between him and Lyanna would be The Son(g) of Ice and Fire.

We know Rhaegar was constantly reevaluation the prophecy in light of new information--at first he thinks TPTWP is himself, then Aegon when the babe is born. Once he is married to L information he already knew, the pact, comes back to his mind and I envision an "OH!" moment.

[Ygrain]

Doesn't that actually require a few more assumptions than the alternate explanation? That Rhaegar told them "guard this tower/Lyanna/my son no matter what happens" and they were doing that?

That would make them oathbreakers to their primary duty, which they were not, or else they wouldn't be considered as exemplary KG by Ned.

I don't follow this. There is precedent in the United States for a person to be elected President more than twice. Franklin Roosevelt did it. But it is illegal, because after Roosevelt did it the law was changed.

So polygamy in Westeros is not unprecedented, but it is (very likely) illegal.

"Was and is". You don't say this about something that no longer applies.

And BTW, the fact that some RL precedents no longer apply says absolutely nothing about any precedent in Westeros.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

While I agree that the Promised Prince will eventually turn out to be Jon (though every now and then I wonder whether or not it will be Dany), I disagree with the thought that Rhaegar knew or realised this.

If Rhaegar had truly believed that his child with Lyanna would be the Prince that was Promised, Rhaegar would have done everything he possibly could to try and make Jon fit as many of the criteria as he possibly could. Yet it doesn't seem like Rhaegar even tried.

There has been a Pact with a "certain naming" (to avoid spoiler tags :) ), which could be connected to the Song of Ice and Fire. Sure. But Rhaegar would have known about that pact before he took off to "come to face" with Lyanna. Yet that didn't stop him from being fully convinced that Aegon was the Promised Prince only weeks before.

But let's look at the criteria known to us (who knows, perhaps there are more that we still have to learn about):

• The birth of a male child - a prince. (erroneous according to Maester Aemon) -> If the theory of Rhaegar and Lyanna having gotten married is correct, both Jon and Aegon fit this criterium
  
• The prince is of the blood of the dragon.-> Both boys, no matter if Jon was legitimate, fit this criterium. Rhaegar is a Targaryen, and every single child of his will be of the blood of the dragon.
  
• Born amidst smoke. -> Aegon was born on Dragonstone, which houses the Dragonmont, a smoking vulcano. Aegon was thus "born admidst smoke". Jon, however, was not born admidst smoke. Aegon fits the criterium, Jon doesn't
  
• Born amidst salt. -> Again, Aegon was born on Dragonstone, which is surrounded by the sea, salt water. Therefor, born admidst salt. Jon, however, does not fit this criterium.
  
• A bleeding star in the skies. (also mentioned is being born beneath a bleeding star) -> No comet or bleeding star is mentioned for Jon's birth or conception, yet for Aegon's conception, there was. This star was what caused Rhaegar to believe that Aegon was the Promised Prince in the first place. Aegon fits the criterium, Jon doesn't.
  
• Possibly the return of dragons (when he was a boy Aegon V Targaryen recalled that King Aerys I read about the return of dragons in a prophecy.) -> Neither fit this one, that's Dany :) But no where is it stated that the promised prince has to be responsible for the return of the dragons. So in a way, all fit this one.
  

Aegon fits a lot more of criteria than Jon does. With Rhaegar having been able to choose where Elia gave birth, it seems that Rhaegar had been able to actively decide whether Aegon should have been born at Dragonstone or not, and he choose to do so. Yet with Jon, he seems to have made no such arrangements. We don't know exactly when Rhaegar left Lyanna, or when she got sick, but it seems that her sickness began either shortly before the birth, or only after. Had Rhaegar believed that Jon was the Promised Prince, then making certain that Jon was born admidst smoke and salt would have mattered to him, yet it would seem that there was no attempt whatsoever to get Lyanna to Dragonstone (Rhaegar's very own seat).

The pact could only have influenced the first two criteria, to create a "prince", as a bastard isn't a prince, and to create the "blood of the dragon", if only trueborn children can be called such.

[Consigliere]

Doesn't that actually require a few more assumptions than the alternate explanation? That Rhaegar told them "guard this tower/Lyanna/my son no matter what happens" and they were doing that?

Actually it doesn't. The text makes it quite clear what the primary duty of the KG is. It's quite likely that they were originally there on Rhaegars orders but his orders alone does not explain why the chose to stay there following The Trident and the Sack.

[sj4iy]

What I mean is that Rhaegar thought he had the Prince he needed -- Aegon.

Now what he wanted was a third head, which in his mind did not need to be a prince, or legitimate or whatever.

It would be very much in keeping with GRRM's style if it turns out Rhaegar was wrong, and the Prince that was Promised was not his heir but his bastard.

He wanted a "dragon". Bastards aren't 'dragons'.

[BearQueen87]

There has been a Pact with a "certain naming" (to avoid spoiler tags :) ), which could be connected to the Song of Ice and Fire. Sure. But Rhaegar would have known about that pact before he took off to "come to face" with Lyanna. Yet that didn't stop him from being fully convinced that Aegon was the Promised Prince only weeks before.

Yes but like I said it takes marrying Lyanna for Rhaegar to understand the significance of the pact with a certain name. You can have knowledge of a thing (pact) and not understand how it plays into larger plans' we know R was constantly reevaluating the prophecy and how it all worked.

So R knew that this pact existed, but didn't put any thought into it prophetically because to him, at the time, it was just a pact that failed to go through. Once he marries L, he sees that the pact has been fulfilled and suddenly a light goes off about the pact, its name, and what it means for his child with L.

The name of the pact is so damn telling that for Rhaegar to not make some sort of connection or have an Ah-ha! moment would just be strange, IMO.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Yes but like I said it takes marrying Lyanna for Rhaegar to understand the significance of the pact with a certain name. You can have knowledge of a thing (pact) and not understand how it plays into larger plans' we know R was constantly reevaluating the prophecy and how it all worked.

So R knew that this pact existed, but didn't put any thought into it prophetically because to him, at the time, it was just a pact that failed to go through. Once he marries L, he sees that the pact has been fulfilled and suddenly a light goes off about the pact, its name, and what it means for his child with L.

The name of the pact is so damn telling that for Rhaegar to not make some sort of connection or have an Ah-ha! moment would just be strange, IMO.

But then why not make that connection when the plans to marry Lyanna came up in his head? And, if he made such a connection, why not try to get his child by Lyanna to fullfill as many of the criteria as he can possibly influence?

[BearQueen87]

But then why not make that connection when the plans to marry Lyanna came up in his head? And, if he made such a connection, why not try to get his child by Lyanna to fullfill as many of the criteria as he can possibly influence?

1) We don't know when R and L decided to marry. It could have been on the road or in letters. It's possible that when they did decide is when R got a clue. He did have several weeks in between Aegon's birth and taking Lyanna. Their whole relationship is still quite blank in some moments.

2) I don't know how someone gets their child to fulfill prophetic criteria. None of the stuff with Aegon was influenced by Rhaegar and he himself influenced none of the stuff that led to his own birth/belief that he was TPTWP. And further, this might go back to what Alia is always saying: that when Rhaegar decided to just live instead of trying force it all, it came to pass. So at some point, a little light goes off in his head--either right after marriage to L to directly before--that they are fulfilling the Pact of a Certain Name. Another light goes off, "our child would be the proof of this Pact of A Certain Name" and then still another light goes off, "Lyanna is the Ice and I am the Fire. The child we have will be the combination of that and will have the Song of Ice of and Fire." Once R realizes that he has "done his part" as it were then prophecy will out---it'll take care of itself.

[UnmaskedLurker]

But then why not make that connection when the plans to marry Lyanna came up in his head? And, if he made such a connection, why not try to get his child by Lyanna to fullfill as many of the criteria as he can possibly influence?

I basically agree with what BQ87 and sj4ij have said about this issue, but I will try to elaborate on a few points. First, when did Rhaegar likely change his mind on who would be TPTWP from Aegon to Jon? Of course, we don't know for sure that he did and if he did, when, but the "pact" that people keep referencing (I cannot wait until 11/27 when we can stop worrying about spoiler tags) is a huge clue that at some point Rhaegar did--and there is little doubt he would know his family's history enough to know about the pact (as it was a part of one of the biggest events in his family's history). I think at the time of the HotU vision, Rhaegar probably had not yet been told that Elia could have no more children. Until Rhaegar hears that news, there is simply no way for him to make a connection between the pact and having a child with Lyanna who would be TPTWP because until he gets that news, there is no way he would consider having a child with anyone other than Elia. At some point after he gets that news about Elia not being able to have more children (and there "must be one more"), he decides to run off with Lyanna--but we don't really know when. But whenever it entered Rhaegar's head that he should go off with Lyanna and have a child with her, the pact would enter his mind and he would make the connection. At that point, he would realize that his child with Lyanna would be TPTWP and not Aegon--or at a minimum this new child MIGHT be TPTWP.

Which brings me to the point about Aegon meeting more of the criteria. Remember that Rhaegar is dead by the time Jon is born so Rhaegar does not live long enough to see whether the additional criteria are met with respect to Jon. But--AT A MINIMUM--Rhaegar would hedge his bets. Even if he was not certain that Jon would be TPTWP, having a child with Lyanna would have to make Rhaegar consider the possibility (especially given the nature of the "pact"). So the one aspect of the prophecy that Rhaegar really could control (as he does not control comets and salt and smoke) is making sure this child, if a boy, would be a prince. Now if Rhaegar had lived and Jon had been born a girl or if none of the other criteria relevant to being TPTWP came true, perhaps Rhaegar would go back to believing Aegon must be TPTWP. But at the relevant point in time, when Rhaegar is deciding whether it is important to marry Lyanna, one of the considerations would be the realization that a marriage to Lyanna would appear to mirror the "pact" and thus suggest that their child (and not Aegon) likely would be TPTWP (pending looking at whether the additional criteria were met).

So to answer your specific questions--personally, I think that as soon as he thought he was going to have a child with Lyanna, he probably started to make the connection to the pact and realize the importance of marriage. We cannot know for sure, but logically, I think whatever time it took to decide to run off with Lyanna was more than enough time to make the connection regarding the pact.

As to your question about "fulfilling the criteria" I think I tried to answer already but I will elaborate a little. He would have controlled one criteria by marrying Lyanna to ensure a prince if a boy is born. He could not have Jon born on Dragonstone (smoke/salt) because he had to go into hiding and I doubt they could hide on Dragonstone. But we don't know what Rhaegar might have done to try to control the "smoke and fire" and as noted above, he cannot control comets or other celestial happenings. But he already decided that he mistook the signs once in regard to himself, so that is a clue that he would consider the possibility (perhaps likelihood) that he did it again with Aegon and prepare to watch for the clues in regard to Jon. It is not fair to compare the clues for someone already born with someone not yet born when most of clues are things that relate to the situation surrounding the birth (or conception--which at the time for a decision about marriage also would not have occurred yet). But we know that meeting the clues are not enough to ensure that Rhaegar would not change his mind, as he already did that once from himself (who seemed to meet the clues) to Aegon (who also seemed to meet the clues).

So I admit it is possible that he was not certain that Jon would be TPTWP, but at a minimum, it seems Rhaegar would have to suspect that he might be and thus would want to control the one thing he really had control over--marrying Lyanna to make Jon a prince. And at the time he had to make that decision whether to marry Lyanna it would not have been possible to know whether the other criteria would be met because at that time Jon would not have been born, or even yet conceived. So the pact would put the idea in Rhaegar's head of the likelihood that Jon would be TPTWP and the first step to fulfilling the criteria would be the marry Lyanna. We really have no idea what other step Rhaegar might have taken to fulfill the other criteria--and GRRM certainly would not have told us yet as that would give too much away.

[RumHam]

If Rhaegar wanted to legitimize Jon, the easiest way to do it is to marry Lyanna. Which he would have had plenty of time to do in those several months between her 'kidnapping' and Jon's conception.

I would say that if polygamy was not legal, (or hell even if it was culturally frowned upon and he would be risking giving Aerys an excuse to disinherit him) It would be easier to become king and then legitimize him. Probably less political fallout too.

As to the Yandel issue: I think it is logical to conclude that the 3 KG had no knowledge that Aerys had named Viserys as his heir (or Yandel got it wrong and Viserys really only became heir shortly thereafter when Aegon died--and Yandel had no knowledge of Jon). Under normal succession laws, Jon and not Viserys would be king only if Jon is legitimate. It is not hard to believe--and actually quite likely--that word of any decree from Aerys to make Viserys the new heir would not have reached ToJ.

So all the news about Rhaegar and Aerys' deaths reached them but for some reason it's hard for you to believe they heard this bit of news. That doesn't seem a bit...convenient to you?

That would make them oathbreakers to their primary duty, which they were not, or else they wouldn't be considered as exemplary KG by Ned.

I really don't think this is true. We already have an example from The Princess and the Queen of the Kingsguard leaving the king in the hands of a non-kingsguard. Ned would respect them for fighting to the death for a lost cause and to protect his sister.

He wanted a "dragon". Bastards aren't 'dragons'.

What are you basing this on? Daemon Blackfyre wasn't a dragon? Do actual dragons marry their mates before laying eggs? I love how we're using the term dragon metaphorically, based on some ancient prophecy we don't even have the wording of, but you guys somehow know that the "dragon" had to be trueborn.

Actually it doesn't. The text makes it quite clear what the primary duty of the KG is. It's quite likely that they were originally there on Rhaegars orders but his orders alone does not explain why the chose to stay there following The Trident and the Sack.

Is it established somewhere that your orders become invalid once the person who gave them dies?

[Ygrain]

I really don't think this is true. We already have an example from The Princess and the Queen of the Kingsguard leaving the king in the hands of a non-kingsguard. Ned would respect them for fighting to the death for a lost cause and to protect his sister.

No, we don't - I presume you are talking about the part when Aegon is being smuggled out of KL? The KG are protecting him by not drawing attention to him by their presence, which is not a situation applicable to Viserys.

[sj4iy]

What are you basing this on? Daemon Blackfyre wasn't a dragon? Do actual dragons marry their mates before laying eggs? I love how we're using the term dragon metaphorically, based on some ancient prophecy we don't even have the wording of, but you guys somehow know that the "dragon" had to be trueborn.

No, he wasn't. He was a Blackfyre- even when he was legitimized, he still wasn't a "Targaryen". But being a bastard Targaryen doesn't automatically make you a Blackfyre...Jon would be a Sand or a Snow. Targaryens are dragons. Their bastards are not.

And you're still missing the point. It's not about whether the prophecy would be 'okay' with a bastard Targaryen- it's about what Rhaegar thought the prophecy was saying. If he believes this prophecy is important enough to:

1. Leave his wife and newborn

2. Leave his insane father in charge instead of forging ahead with his plans to depose him

3. And stay hidden for many, many months while a war caused in part by his own actions wages on all around him

Then it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever that he would simply leave anything "up to chance". If HE thinks there needs to be a third head to the dragon, he's going to make damn sure that third head IS a dragon in every way possible. Otherwise, none of Rhaegar's actions make any sense at all.

[BearQueen87]

So all the news about Rhaegar and Aerys' deaths reached them but for some reason it's hard for you to believe they heard this bit of news. That doesn't seem a bit...convenient to you?

I agree with something that Rhaenys_Targaryen and Apple Martini said in the World Book spoiler thread we have:

Viserys is only the recently named heir to the Maester because in a few days, he would be. No one knows about Jon, remember. So it's likely that Aerys never actually did anything like declaring Viserys his heir, but to the world Viserys was Aerys' heir after Rhaegar and Aegon died, so the Maester is just putting that in there.

What are you basing this on? Daemon Blackfyre wasn't a dragon? Do actual dragons marry their mates before laying eggs? I love how we're using the term dragon metaphorically, based on some ancient prophecy we don't even have the wording of, but you guys somehow know that the "dragon" had to be trueborn.

Can you think of any example where a bastard Targ is called/thought of as a dragon BY A TRUE BORN TARG. You have to keep in mind what Rhaegar thought--not what we think...but Rhaegar.