[tWoIaF spoilers] Summerhall headcount

[Lord Varys]

Yes, if Tywin was still Egg's squire he might have been there. But neither the Westerlands reading nor TWoIaF mentioned it. And neither did anything Tywin said or did during the main series suggests that he was there.

But that doesn't prove anything, of course.

[Bael's Bastard]

I still think Aerys and Tywin were responsible.

[Maia]

Yea, that "those who were there would not speak of it" is really convenient and leaves GRRM the freedom to include whoever he wants into the story down the line ;).

[Lord Varys]

Bael's Bastard,

come on, that would be rather cheap and weird. Neither does young Aerys strike me as an evil genius, nor does it seem likely that Tywin would conspire against Egg.

I think we could even rephrase Lady Genna and say 'Tywin is fifth Aegon's true grandson', considering that Egg would have been the defining positive role model for young Tywin. It would not surprise me one bit if young Tywin was really actively trying to emulate Aegon V as he came to know him.

The older Egg must have been a decisive and stern king, considering all the rebellions and troubles he had to deal with, a process that would have hardened him considerably...

[Ibbison from Ibben]

Ibbison,

could the 'those closest to him' quote not also mean/extend to closest kin? It is ambiguous, of course, but Egg trying to hatch seven eggs instead of, say, one, suggests that his study of ancient Asshai'i and Valyrian dragonlore really may have yielded some results, leading to his decision to assemble as many dragon-blooded people as possible there.

Since this whole thing was such a huge tragedy, the amount of dead dragons should really outweigh the amount of survivors - Jaehaerys II, Shaera Aerys, Rhaella are pretty much, so I'd really see more dead Targaryens there than just Egg, Betha, Prince Duncan, and Jenny...

Actually, the fragments suggest that the choice to hatch seven eggs was Aegon's attempt to integrate his dragon hatching lore with the Faith of the Seven. "... seven eggs, to honor the seven gods, though the king's own septon had warned..." And "... many of those closest to him... " does not suggest an exhaustive gathering from all the cadet branches.

Losing the king is probably enough to classify Summerhall as a tragedy for House Targaryen, but there might well have been other deaths besides Aegon, Duncan and Dunk. Betha, Shaera, and Rhaelle might all have died. Jaehaerys was 34, and Shaera was the next youngest of Aegon's children. She would still be well within childbearing range, but Jaehaerys had no more children after Summerhall. ETA - Shaera survived, as Colonel Green noted below.

The three main objections I have to your interpretation are -

1 - Such an extensive gathering would have been noted for what is was, not just as "many who were close". It would have been a truly unprecedented, extraordinary summons.

2 - No casualties are noted for other houses anywhere in the story. If the gathering were that big and that deadly ("very few witnesses alive"), why haven't we heard of any deaths in other houses? Ormund and Steffon Baratheon survived. Brienne mentions no Tarth deaths connected with Summerhall. And so on..

3 - Magic in the series seems to depend on the magic user(s), not the crowd. How would they take part? Would they even want to? Why would all those distant relatives want to increase the power of the throne?

You are spinning a very iffy interpretation of an ambiguous fragment of evidence into a conclusion that should have left traces elsewhere throughout the series, but didn't. I don't think it is justified. We will have to agree to disagree on this, but I really think my case is the stronger.

[Bael's Bastard]

Hey, it's just what I think. I am not saying it is obvious that it must be Aerys/Tywin, or that could not possibly be any other explanation except Aerys/Tywin, but I still think they were responsible. It may be that things just went wrong accidentally. Totally possible. I just think Aerys/Tywin were responsible. I will have to re-read the world book again, and the regular series, to work out fully what I think happened. I suspect that Aerys and Tywin had wanted Joanna to marry Aerys before he was forced to marry Rhaella, and that they were conspirators in what occurred afterwards.

[Colonel Green]

Yeah, I think pretty much all Targaryens came to and were wiped out at Summerhall. It is explicitly said that the tragedies of Egg's reign had trimmed the noble tree of House Targaryen down to just a pair of lonely branches. There may be descendants of Blackfyres or bastards, but I don't think any legitimate Targaryens survived Summerhall except the lines we know of, Jaehaerys II, Aerys (II), Rhaella, Rhaegar (not sure about Shaera and Rhaelle).

Shaera is mentioned as alive in the section on the reign of Jaehaerys II.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

dp

[Stannis's birthright]

Egg family would need to have dragons to continue his reforms or they would be gone as soon as Egg dies if none of the family were dragon riders . Simple as that . It didn't Take Tywin long to roll them back and he did that as Hand

[Lord Varys]

Well, we really know who Egg was close to, or do we? Besides from Dunk, Betha, and Prince Duncan (Jaehaerys was not actually at that close to him, personality-wise at least). Neither of them would have to be summoned to Summerhall, as they most likely lived with him, anyway (Jenny supposedly was eventually accepted at court, that is at KL).

I never said that all the cadet branches had to be assembled in full at Summerhall, I did only talk about Egg's immediate family (children, grandchildren, siblings, nieces, and nephews).

As we don't know what happened to Daella, Rhae, Maegor, Rhaelle, Daenora, Vaelle, etc. we simply can't rule out that they were there, too. It was a family feast, Egg's celebrating the birth of his first great-grandchild.

The assumptions that all those relatives had produced all that many cadet branches in other houses has not yet been confirmed, too.

And I also said above that I don't believe Egg wanted to hand dragons to the cadet-branches, all I said is that they may have been there. That would be a difference. Since there was apparently a betrayal there, some people with a motive should be there, too. My guess is that no betrayers are still alive today, and it may very well turn out that the betrayers did also not survive Summerhall, because Dunk and Egg killed them before they themselves died - that would be the stuff George will be telling from Dunk's POV.

[Moondancer]

Maybe Aegon V should have omitted the egg intended for Stranger... :dunno:

[The Red Widow of Coldmoat]

As for why Summerhall ended up being the disaster that it was, I wonder if it was because, oddly enough, the Targaryen bloodlines weren't "pure" enough. The generation of Duncan and Jaehaerys is pretty much the least inbred the Targaryens were since they left Valyria. The Targaryen bloodline had been getting rather steadily less inbred since the Dance (aside from Aegon IV/Naerys), at least in the line that continued. After the death of the last dragon, there wasn't another dragon hatching until we get to Daenerys, who was considerably more inbred than her forebears. Granted, Rhaegar was of the same generation, but he wasn't exactly actively involved in the goings on at Summerhall.

I just wouldn't be surprised if there were a magical reason that the old Valyrian dragonlords kept their bloodlines "pure", outside of just consolidating their power bases.

[Bironic]

Maybe there where 7 deaths? 1. Egg, 2. Black Betha, 3. Duncan, 4. Jenny, 5. Daella, 6. Rhae, 7. Maegor

[Suzanna Stormborn]

Yeah, I thought it said Rhaella and Aerys were there and Rhaegar was born right outside? Like Rhaella went outside to give birth to Rahegar and that's when Summerhall burned down........born amidst smoke and salt......

[Lord Varys]

I don't think it makes any sense to assume that Dany's blood is 'purer' than Egg's because there were two incest marriage between Aegon V and Dany. All Jaehaerys-Shaera and Aerys-Rhaella could do was to preserve their 'diluted blood' which got actually more 'impure' when Egg married Black Betha - Jaehaerys and Shaera have Mariah Martell, Dyanna Dayn, and Betha Blackwood as immediate non-Valyrian ancestors, whereas Egg himself had only Mariah and Dyanna.

[AryaNymeriaVisenya]

Weird how Egg tried to tie it in to the Seven when the Woods Witch who prophecised the birth of a dragon was of the Old Gods. I would like to have read Bertha and Jenny's reactions to this.

Maybe there where 7 deaths? 1. Egg, 2. Black Betha, 3. Duncan, 4. Jenny, 5. Daella, 6. Rhae, 7. Maegor

I think its pretty certain Dunc the tall died too

[The Red Widow of Coldmoat]

I don't think it makes any sense to assume that Dany's blood is 'purer' than Egg's because there were two incest marriage between Aegon V and Dany. All Jaehaerys-Shaera and Aerys-Rhaella could do was to preserve their 'diluted blood' which got actually more 'impure' when Egg married Black Betha - Jaehaerys and Shaera have Mariah Martell, Dyanna Dayn, and Betha Blackwood as immediate non-Valyrian ancestors, whereas Egg himself had only Mariah and Dyanna.

Ah, yes, of course you are correct that without another source of "dragonblood" that the proportional amount would not be increased by incest, only not diluted.

This got me thinking that perhaps the dragon stuff was inherited through the mother, if not necessarily the female line. We do see that pretty much every dragon rider's mother was a Targaryen or of Targaryen descent. For example, Aegon/Visenya/Rhaenys's mother was a Velaryon with a Targaryen mother, Aenys's wife (and Rhaenys's maternal grandmother) was a Velaryon with a Targaryen mother, Rhaenyra's mother . But of course, that hits a snag with Alicent Hightower and her children, not to mention Addam Velaryon or the other dragonseeds.

Of course I suppose expecting some sort of simple genealogical explanation would run rather contrary to the seemingly unpredictable nature of magic (and the somewhat unrealistic way that genetics seem to work in Martin's world)

[jet199]

Egg family would need to have dragons to continue his reforms or they would be gone as soon as Egg dies if none of the family were dragon riders . Simple as that . It didn't Take Tywin long to roll them back and he did that as Hand

But as soon as he died his reforms would probably be gone. His heir didn't support the reforms.

The fact that Egg was thinking of using dragons to impose his will by force is a huge flashing light that he was drifting towards authoritarianism.

I really don't know why people are just ok with that, they wouldn't put up with it from their own rulers no matter what good intentions they had.

It's all good to try and help the small folk but if you can't get people to agree to it then what are the other options, compromise or mass murder of the lords?

[Stannis's birthright]

I believe Egg would never of have unleashed the Dragons . He simply wanted to have them to cower lords that might rebel because of his reforms . It wouldn't of have worked forever though

[Ibbison from Ibben]

The fact that Egg was thinking of using dragons to impose his will by force is a huge flashing light that he was drifting towards authoritarianism.

I really don't know why people are just ok with that, they wouldn't put up with it from their own rulers no matter what good intentions they had.

It's all good to try and help the small folk but if you can't get people to agree to it then what are the other options, compromise or mass murder of the lords?

It actually mimics European history. The Middle Ages was a time of fairly weak kings and strong nobles. As time passed, the middle class gained in strength economically and allied with the kings against the nobles. The rise of centralized powerful kingships is strongly linked with the rise of the middle class at the expense of the nobility. It looks like Aegon was trying to force the issue a bit by using dragons.

Aegon's aspirations are depicted in a negative light because those who chronicled it were allied to the nobles.