R+L=J v.113

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

@Snowfyre ...but R+L=J alternatives really aren't viable (evidence-wise, and more damningly, from a sense of literary completeness and established leitmotif), and I think distract from the really interesting and more critical issue ripe for discussion: "so, R+L=J. What next?"

I may simply disagree with you, butterbumps!, with respect to the question of what's viable. At some point, perhaps I will actually flesh out my argument for a particular alternative. Afterward, whether you agree or disagree with me on the wisdom of the effort, I'm sure I'd like to know your thoughts on the idea itself. I'll try to remember to ask you, specifically.

@Snowfyre: I don't mind discussing alternative, but the problem is that any time someone puts forth evidence for a new daddy for Jon, it falls incredibly flat because of lack of evidence.

I suppose that may be true. I haven't actually read that many alternative theories, to be honest. Do you know of any, outside of variations within the "R+L=J" umbrella? To me, it's always seemed like the only serious options anyone's considered for Jon's father were Rhaegar and Ned.

...any suggestion that alternatives haven't been considered time and again is underestimating the amount of research, consideration, etc., that has gone into the issue of Jon's parentage.

I certainly don't mean any disrespect to those who've already considered and dismissed alternative possibilities. And though I read the first two books years and years ago, I probably missed out on much of the early online discussion. So if you know of any past or current threads where I can find this sort of thing - research, consideration, etc., that you feel have helped to rule out other serious candidates as Jon Snow's father - I'd honestly appreciate the reference.

[sj4iy]

J.Star said : "In that case, just follow the trail of Lyanna's blue roses. It leads back to Rhaegar and the Harrenhal tourney."

Trust me and i'm not trying to be anal,but i've glanced at these threads so many times gone over what you guys have ascribed as hints,forshadowing etc. Still i see clear connections to Jon being Lya's son. Hell i went to Sj4iJ's link and i come away with the same idea the same thing...Jon as Lya's son. To me this arguement on the otherside has Rheagar as Jon's father because of Rheagar's suppossed connection to Lya and that has holes in it.

This is a suggestion or maybe a request that you guys don't have to take the heart,i ask only because who all have been compiling etc. But how about finding connections that exists between R and J or somebody else if they are there or not?

There is no other possibility for Jon's father. Rhaegar and Lyanna were together at the time he was conceived. They have a clearly established prior relationship. Rhaegar's last word was "Lyanna" (and yes, that was confirmed). They have many, many people saying that they were in love. We have an insane amount of blue rose symbolism.

Jon may look like his mother, but he and Rhaegar also share many personality traits. Look how how Barristan describes Rhaegar in these two different passages:

“Able. That above all. Determined, deliberate, dutiful, single-minded."

“But I am not certain it was in Rhaegar to be happy.”

“You make him sound so sour,” Dany protested.

“Not sour, no, but... there was a melancholy to Prince Rhaegar...”

Jon and Rhaegar's personalities are very much the same. Sullen, dutiful, determined, and able. Jon is an excellent fighter like his father, and an excellent rider like his mother.

I don't see how, with Lyanna as his mother, there is any other possibility but Rhaegar for his father.

[J. Stargaryen]

I certainly don't mean any disrespect to those who've already considered and dismissed alternative possibilities. And though I read the first two books years and years ago, I probably missed out on much of the early online discussion. So if you know of any past or current threads where I can find this sort of thing - research, consideration, etc., that you feel have helped to rule out other serious candidates as Jon Snow's father - I'd honestly appreciate the reference.

I can't point to anything more specific than previous versions of this thread. At least off the top of my head.

[BearQueen87]

I suppose that may be true. I haven't actually read that many alternative theories, to be honest. Do you know of any, outside of variations within the "R+L=J" umbrella? To me, it's always seemed like the only serious options anyone's considered for Jon's father were Rhaegar and Ned.

Brandon Stark gets tossed around quite a bit. The BAJ theory. (this is probably the one that pops up most frequently)

I've seen Benjen/Brandon with Lyanna.

I've seen Mance (and not in the Mance = R sort of way)

[JonSnow4President]

Brandon Stark gets tossed around quite a bit. The BAJ theory. (this is probably the one that pops up most frequently)

I've seen Benjen/Brandon with Lyanna.

I've seen Mance (and not in the Mance = R sort of way)

Also seen Dayne/Whent

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

Just two words: literary analysis.

Here's an idea, which I've posted elsewhere (below the line here, I'm mostly quoting a previous post). Just something I continue to wonder about, and thought I'd offer up here:

-------

I have, in the past, emphasized just how important it is for an author to maintain readers' trust. I still believe that relationship is important - and I do think that (at this point) many of Martin's readers will feel betrayed if it turns out that Rhaegar is not the baby-daddy. That said, if Jon's biological father is someone else, my stance on Martin will be more forgiving than most because it seems to me that he's given us fair warning - in Varys' Riddle of Power, and the parable of the Sealord's Cat, to name just a couple of specific places. To a certain extent, I think Martin has engaged us all in a metafictional experiment, or a demonstration, of the dynamics of storytelling and interpretation. In the case of Lyanna and Jon Snow, the experience and conclusions drawn by the reader-audience become Martin's illustration of the shape that Westerosi public opinion might have taken, had Ned not kept his secrets and hidden Lyanna's child. Which is not to say that the commonly accepted story and Ned's truth would have amounted to the same thing. In fact, I think the point is that they would not. Just look at how things went over for Davos and Stannis:

"How did the commons take the news of Cersei's incest?"

"While we were among them they shouted for King Stannis. I cannot speak for what they said once we had sailed."

"So you do not think they believed?"

"When I was smuggling, I learned that some men believe everything and some nothing. We met both sorts. And there is another tale being spread as well—"

"Yes." Stannis bit off the word. "Selyse has given me horns, and tied a fool's bells to the end of each. My daughter fathered by a halfwit jester! A tale as vile as it is absurd. Renly threw it in my teeth when we met to parley. You would need to be as mad as Patchface to believe such a thing."

"That may be so, my liege… but whether they believe the story or no, they delight to tell it." In many places it had come before them, poisoning the well for their own true tale... (2.42, DAVOS)

What is the tale of Patchface and Selyse but a mummer's trick, a shadow on the wall? Yet what chance does the truth stand, next to the power (and "delight") of such a story?

-------

I continue to wonder (just wonder) if Martin hasn't deliberately constructed a scenario in which his readers participate in this story by identifying with the common people and smallfolk of the Seven Kingdoms. Does it look like Jon is possibly the son of Rhaegar Targaryen? Well... yes. As soon as we consider the possibility that Lyanna Stark was his mother, that seems a natural and exciting conclusion to draw. In fact, it's exactly what Robert Baratheon would think... I mean, Rhaegar spent months raping her, right? So the child must be his. And the implications would be huge... it would make this a very, very exciting story, for better or for worse.

But is that actually what happened? Did Rhaegar ever lay hands on Lyanna Stark... really? Have we ever truly questioned that "fact?" Or did we just take Robert's word for it back in Book 1... and convince ourselves that Lyanna liked it? Is R+L=J anything more than a cleaned-up, "safe" retelling of Robert Baratheon's story?

[J. Stargaryen]

snip

That's an interesting idea, and thoughts like that are definitely worth having. But as a practical matter, it ends up eschewing close and careful analysis of the actual text of ASoIaF, for somewhat vague philosophizing. I don't think GRRM is interested in social experiments nearly as much as he is in telling a good story.

[sj4iy]

But is that actually what happened? Did Rhaegar ever lay hands on Lyanna Stark... really? Have we ever truly questioned that "fact?" Or did we just take Robert's word for it back in Book 1... and convince ourselves that Lyanna liked it? Is R+L=J anything more than a cleaned-up, "safe" retelling of Robert Baratheon's story?

We have numerous accounts of Rhaegar and Lyanna running off together. Only Robert suggests that Lyanna was kidnapped and raped. Everyone else makes it sound like a love affair.

R+L=J isn't an attempt to 'clean up' Jon's lineage. It's looking at the evidence presented all throughout the books and putting it all together into a coherent story. Dany was conceived of rape, but I don't see anyone attempting to 'clean up' her origins. Nor would I attempt to 'clean up' Jon's origins if the same applied to him. Why would I care? Why would anyone care?

I haven't 'convinced myself' of anything. The BOOK has convinced me. I didn't start out with the conclusion "Jon is a secret prince!" and work backwards...I started out with what the book presented me- that Jon was Ned's bastard with an unknown mother. It was only after the clues started pointing to something else did I question the story we were given and try to find an alternative explanation that fit the evidence.

[BearQueen87]

-------

I continue to wonder (just wonder) if Martin hasn't deliberately constructed a scenario in which his readers participate in this story by identifying with the common people and smallfolk of the Seven Kingdoms. Does it look like Jon is possibly the son of Rhaegar Targaryen? Well... yes. As soon as we consider the possibility that Lyanna Stark was his mother, that seems a natural and exciting conclusion to draw. In fact, it's exactly what Robert Baratheon would think... I mean, Rhaegar spent months raping her, right? So the child must be his. And the implications would be huge... it would make this a very, very exciting story, for better or for worse.

But is that actually what happened? Did Rhaegar ever lay hands on Lyanna Stark... really? Have we ever truly questioned that "fact?" Or did we just take Robert's word for it back in Book 1... and convince ourselves that Lyanna liked it? Is R+L=J anything more than a cleaned-up, "safe" retelling of Robert Baratheon's story?

I see what you're saying and it's interesting to consider--a sort of experiment on his audience. But here's my first issue: you now have to show me who Jon's father is. While what you propose is, as I said, interesting, there is still the matter of Jon's father. And you still have L in her bed of blood at the TOJ, having been taken by R, guarded by two/three KG and, apparently, no one else around. So if this is all a ruse on the audience, then who is Jon's real father?

And here's my second issue: GRRM's butler. This is one of my favorite quotes of his, but he says that in a mystery story if all the clues point toward the butler being a murder, then its the butler. You don't get to pull a rabbit out of a hat and have it be the maid at the 11th hour in order to surprise your audinece. It ruins the story. I think you're right that GRRM wants audience participation but not in the way you imagine. He wants us to uncover Jon's parents which is why he has peppered all 5 of his books (and world book) with RLJ hints. He wants us to be detectives and figure it out. But he's not going go to "AH HA! Gotcha!"

[butterbumps!]

I continue to wonder (just wonder) if Martin hasn't deliberately constructed a scenario in which his readers participate in this story by identifying with the common people and smallfolk of the Seven Kingdoms. Does it look like Jon is possibly the son of Rhaegar Targaryen? Well... yes. As soon as we consider the possibility that Lyanna Stark was his mother, that seems a natural and exciting conclusion to draw. In fact, it's exactly what Robert Baratheon would think... I mean, Rhaegar spent months raping her, right? So the child must be his. And the implications would be huge... it would make this a very, very exciting story, for better or for worse.

But is that actually what happened? Did Rhaegar ever lay hands on Lyanna Stark... really? Have we ever truly questioned that "fact?" Or did we just take Robert's word for it back in Book 1... and convince ourselves that Lyanna liked it? Is R+L=J anything more than a cleaned-up, "safe" retelling of Robert Baratheon's story?

Well, yes, I think R+L= J is the "easy part." It's what comes after that I think will be a shock to many readers.

In every other story with a hidden prince punchline, when we realize that there's a hidden prince, the immediate assumption is that he's the rightful heir to the throne, and he'll be king either happy to shed off his pleb identity, or as the reluctant king taking his "rightful" place out of necessity.

That's the opposite conclusion we should actually be drawing though. And I think we actually have a lot of common ground on that front-- we both see Varys riddle and the theme of power as illusion generally to be highly central to this story. It looks like we just see it playing out a bit differently.

And I don't think Robert would be suspicious about Jon like that. Ned's word is gold, so if he says this kid is his, then Robert would take him at his word.

[sj4iy]

I see what you're saying and it's interesting to consider--a sort of experiment on his audience. But here's my first issue: you now have to show me who Jon's father is. While what you propose is, as I said, interesting, there is still the matter of Jon's father. And you still have L in her bed of blood at the TOJ, having been taken by R, guarded by two/three KG and, apparently, no one else around. So if this is all a ruse on the audience, then who is Jon's real father?

And here's my second issue: GRRM's butler. This is one of my favorite quotes of his, but he says that in a mystery story if all the clues point toward the butler being a murder, then its the butler. You don't get to pull a rabbit out of a hat and have it be the maid at the 11th hour in order to surprise your audinece. It ruins the story. I think you're right that GRRM wants audience participation but not in the way you imagine. He wants us to uncover Jon's parents which is why he has peppered all 5 of his books (and world book) with RLJ hints. He wants us to be detectives and figure it out. But he's not going go to "AH HA! Gotcha!"

GRRM:

"And then the other one was, of course, you know, I have certain things that I’m laying clues for that there will be revelations later on. Some people had put together those clues even as early as 1998, adding things together. I said, “What do I do with that? What do I do with that? These people have guessed the secret that I’m gonna reveal in book 6, people have already guessed that here and book 2 is just out.” You really have two choices there: you can ignore it and proceed with your plan, despite the fact that some people know where you’re going; or you can get all panicky and say “OMG, they’ve figured it out, I can’t let that be, I’ll have to change it, I’ll have to go in a different direction.” And I think some writers do that, and I think that’s always a mistake. You know, if you've planned your book that the butler did it, and then you read on the internet that someone has figured out that the butler did it and you suddenly change in midstream and it was the chambermaid who did it, then you screw up the whole book, because you get this foreshadowing early on and you’ve got these little clues you’ve planted and now they’re dead ends, and you have to introduce these other clues and now you’re retconning…it’s a mess."

[IceFire125]

Prince Rhaegar burned with a cold light, now white, now red, now dark - ASOS Jaime VI

--

“I am the shield that guards the realms of men. Those are the words. So tell me, my lord—what are these wildlings, if not men?”

Bowen Marsh opened his mouth. No words came out. A flush crept up his neck.

Jon Snow turned away. The last light of the sun had begun to fade. He watched the cracks along the Wall go from red to grey to black, from streaks of fire to rivers of black ice. - ADWD Jon III

--

Three thick walls encircled Qarth, elaborately carved. The outer was red sandstone, thirty feet high and decorated with animals: snakes slithering, kites flying, fish swimming, intermingled with wolves of the red waste and striped zorses and monstrous elephants. The middle wall, forty feet high, was grey granite alive with scenes of war: the clash of sword and shield and spear, arrows in flight, heroes at battle and babes being butchered, pyres of the dead. The innermost wall was fifty feet of black marble, with carvings that made Dany blush until she told herself that she was being a fool. She was no maid; if she could look on the grey wall’s scenes of slaughter, why should she avert her eyes from the sight of men and women giving pleasure to one another? - ACOK Dany II

**foreshadowing of Dany and Jon together?

--

Beyond its confines, a hard white frost gripped Winterfell. The paths were treacherous with black ice, and hoarfrost sparkled in the moonlight on the broken panes of the Glass Gardens. Drifts of dirty snow had piled up against the walls, filling every nook and corner. Some were so high they hid the doors behind them. Under the snow lay grey ash and cinders... - ADWD The Prince of Winterfell

“Ashes and cinders.”

“Kings and dragons.” -ADWD Jon VIII

“Kings are a rare sight in the north.”

Robert snorted. “More likely they were hiding under the snow. Snow, Ned!” The king put one hand on the wall to steady himself as they descended. -AGOT Eddard I

**The king put one hand on the wall so that he won't fall. At the wall is where Jon will begin his ascension as King.

[BearQueen87]

GRRM:

"And then the other one was, of course, you know, I have certain things that I’m laying clues for that there will be revelations later on. Some people had put together those clues even as early as 1998, adding things together. I said, “What do I do with that? What do I do with that? These people have guessed the secret that I’m gonna reveal in book 6, people have already guessed that here and book 2 is just out.” You really have two choices there: you can ignore it and proceed with your plan, despite the fact that some people know where you’re going; or you can get all panicky and say “OMG, they’ve figured it out, I can’t let that be, I’ll have to change it, I’ll have to go in a different direction.” And I think some writers do that, and I think that’s always a mistake. You know, if you've planned your book that the butler did it, and then you read on the internet that someone has figured out that the butler did it and you suddenly change in midstream and it was the chambermaid who did it, then you screw up the whole book, because you get this foreshadowing early on and you’ve got these little clues you’ve planted and now they’re dead ends, and you have to introduce these other clues and now you’re retconning…it’s a mess."

:cheers: :cheers:

[sj4iy]

:cheers: :cheers:

:) It took me a while to transcribe it from the interview so I keep it in a file XD I think it's probably the most direct 'almost confirmation' we are going to get until the next book comes out.

[UnmaskedLurker]

I know the conversation has moved past this issue and was last touched on near the end of v.112, but I wanted to make a point about whether GRRM has disclosed the secrets of the story, including R+L=J and related elements (like the marriage issue), to D&D. In recent interviews (I can try to find them if people insist, but please take my word for it), D&D stated that they are telling the same story as GRRM. They admit that they have made some plot deviations--such as the upcoming Dorne story line--but in the end they believe they are telling the same story as the books (even if some changes to certain subplots were necessary).

This statement requires that they have been told the entire outline of the rest of the series. I think it is clear that they have--they needed to be able to chart out the 7 seasons on HBO, and to do that, they needed to know where the story is going. But it is not just that they know where the story is going--they do--they intend to tell basically the same story. So if HBO reveals that R&L were married before the book comes out that addresses the issue, we will pretty much know that the book will come out the same way. Anything central to the endgame will basically be the same--the outcome for the major characters will basically be the same. D&D have essentially confirmed this information.

[tongji86]

There is no other possibility for Jon's father. Rhaegar and Lyanna were together at the time he was conceived. They have a clearly established prior relationship. Rhaegar's last word was "Lyanna" (and yes, that was confirmed). They have many, many people saying that they were in love. We have an insane amount of blue rose symbolism.

Jon may look like his mother, but he and Rhaegar also share many personality traits. Look how how Barristan describes Rhaegar in these two different passages:

“Able. That above all. Determined, deliberate, dutiful, single-minded."

“But I am not certain it was in Rhaegar to be happy.”

“You make him sound so sour,” Dany protested.

“Not sour, no, but... there was a melancholy to Prince Rhaegar...”

Jon and Rhaegar's personalities are very much the same. Sullen, dutiful, determined, and able. Jon is an excellent fighter like his father, and an excellent rider like his mother.

I don't see how, with Lyanna as his mother, there is any other possibility but Rhaegar for his father.

And I can't see how Lyanna is not Jon's mother.

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

That's an interesting idea, and thoughts like that are definitely worth having. But as a practical matter, it ends up eschewing close and careful analysis of the actual text of ASoIaF, for somewhat vague philosophizing. I don't think GRRM is interested in social experiments nearly as much as he is in telling a good story.

I take it you mean that this particular post of mine doesn't present enough "close and careful analysis of the actual text" to convince you of the idea? Because you really don't know how much close and careful analysis of actual text I may have already done as I've considered it. Certainly I'm not asking anyone to "eschew close and careful analysis," or agree with this idea without due consideration of their own.

I see what you're saying and it's interesting to consider--a sort of experiment on his audience. But here's my first issue: (1) you now have to show me who Jon's father is. While what you propose is, as I said, interesting, there is still the matter of Jon's father. And you still have L in her bed of blood at the TOJ, having been taken by R, guarded by two/three KG and, apparently, no one else around. So if this is all a ruse on the audience, then who is Jon's real father?

And here's my second issue: (2) GRRM's butler. This is one of my favorite quotes of his, but he says that in a mystery story if all the clues point toward the butler being a murder, then its the butler. You don't get to pull a rabbit out of a hat and have it be the maid at the 11th hour in order to surprise your audinece. It ruins the story. I think you're right that GRRM wants audience participation but not in the way you imagine. He wants us to uncover Jon's parents which is why he has peppered all 5 of his books (and world book) with RLJ hints. He wants us to be detectives and figure it out. But he's not going go to "AH HA! Gotcha!"

Just to address your two issues... with respect to (1) I did make just an initial stab at identifying Tywin Lannister as an alternative candidate, in the last iteration of this thread. That's what started this back-and-forth. Though I recognize that you said I'd need to "show" you who the father is, and not just tell you. I take that to mean that partial theories regarding alternatives aren't generally well-received here... which I understand. That's fine. Just wanted to point out that I'd already signaled one of my ideas on that issue. It's okay with me if you're not ready to take it seriously. I'm not entirely serious about it myself, at this point.

And regarding (2) GRRM's butler... I just don't assume that the revelations Martin refers to in that comment are the ones you expect them to be, I think. They might be. But they might not. That comment, of itself, does not tell me that R+L=J.

Well, yes, I think R+L= J is the "easy part." It's what comes after that I think will be a shock to many readers.

In every other story with a hidden prince punchline, when we realize that there's a hidden prince, the immediate assumption is that he's the rightful heir to the throne, and he'll be king either happy to shed off his pleb identity, or as the reluctant king taking his "rightful" place out of necessity.

That's the opposite conclusion we should actually be drawing though. And I think we actually have a lot of common ground on that front-- we both see Varys riddle and the theme of power as illusion generally to be highly central to this story. It looks like we just see it playing out a bit differently.

And I don't think Robert would be suspicious about Jon like that. Ned's word is gold, so if he says this kid is his, then Robert would take him at his word.

What's funny to me is to see just how many ways Martin has hedged his bets on this "hidden prince" trope. Because really, while we're all busy over here, looking at Jon Snow and debating whether Martin is replaying or reversing the typical trope with Jon's particular narrative arc... there's this other storyline, entirely separate and lately introduced, that presents a young man who explicitly claims to be the hidden prince. And the vast, vast majority of us are convinced he's a fake - in part, because we think we already know who the hidden prince is. But wouldn't that be ironic... if Young Griff turns out to be who he claims to be. I wonder, when his chance finally comes, if he'll turn out to be a willing or a reluctant king? Does he really want a crown, or is that only a role that is thrust upon him? If it turns out that he really is the "rightful" heir to the throne, but the 7K don't want him, would he graciously decline the throne?

No disagreement with you about Robert's lack of suspicion. But that's why Ned claims Jon as his own, isn't it? I mean, if Ned's the father... Robert would never guess Lyanna was the mother.

[BearQueen87]

I take it you mean that this particular post of mine doesn't present enough "close and careful analysis of the actual text" to convince you of the idea? Because you really don't know how much close and careful analysis of actual text I may have already done as I've considered it. Certainly I'm not asking anyone to "eschew close and careful analysis," or agree with this idea without due consideration of their own.

Just to address your two issues... with respect to (1) I did make just an initial stab at identifying Tywin Lannister as an alternative candidate, in the last iteration of this thread. That's what started this back-and-forth. Though I recognize that you said I'd need to "show" you who the father is, and not just tell you. I take that to mean that partial theories regarding alternatives aren't generally well-received here... which I understand. That's fine. Just wanted to point out that I'd already signaled one of my ideas on that issue. It's okay with me if you're not ready to take it seriously. I'm not entirely serious about it myself, at this point.

You'll have to forgive me on this one...I spent most of the day only glancing at our last RLJ until the last few pages so I think I missed the evidence for Tywin as father; I did see the Tywin as shadow player for Rhaegar (interesting!) but not as father for Jon. I am willing to hear you out though

And regarding (2) GRRM's butler... I just don't assume that the revelations Martin refers to in that comment are the ones you expect them to be, I think. They might. But they might not. That comment, of itself, does not tell me that R+L=J.

That's true. It could be something else altogether, though I would argue that the mystery of Jon's parents is really one of the central mysteries of ASOIAF--I mean, we're told from the start that Jon's mother is a secret and it still hasn't been revealed. It's one of the first things people started trying to piece together.

[sj4iy]

And regarding (2) GRRM's butler... I just don't assume that the revelations Martin refers to in that comment are the ones you expect them to be, I think. They might be. But they might not. That comment, of itself, does not tell me that R+L=J.

Earlier in the last thread you specifically said one of the reasons you don't hold with RLJ is because it's too obvious and there are too many clues in the first book.

Agreed. Which is one reason I feel that R+L=J is not a sure thing... because Martin dropped his clues so, so early in the story. If that's the exciting solution to the mystery of Jon's parentage, then by the time we get to it, it seems practically no reveal at all. And as you say, Jon's parentage is not fluid. So if R+L=J is incorrect, it's probably worth looking for clues to alternative solutions.

This quote directly references the fact that Martin found that people had pieced together the mystery he was going to reveal in book 6 by the time book 2 came out and conscientiously decided NOT to change the reveal even if it WAS too obvious because he had laid down too much ground work already and it wouldn't make sense.

That's why the quote was brought up- whether or not you believe it references RLJ or not is one thing (personally, I see no other alternative given the details), but it directly refutes your assumption that Martin would change something because it's 'too obvious'.

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

You'll have to forgive me on this one...I spent most of the day only glancing at our last RLJ until the last few pages so I think I missed the evidence for Tywin as father; I did see the Tywin as shadow player for Rhaegar (interesting!) but not as father for Jon. I am willing to hear you out though

That's true. It could be something else altogether, though I would argue that the mystery of Jon's parents is really one of the central mysteries of ASOIAF--I mean, we're told from the start that Jon's mother is a secret and it still hasn't been revealed. It's one of the first things people started trying to piece together.

Oh, don't get me wrong... I didn't offer much evidence at all, before the objections and disbelief rolled in. I really just tossed it out there as a lark - which is not to say that I haven't put some thought into the idea, only that I didn't even try to present a full case. If and when I do, I'll let you know.

Regarding GRRM's butler... even if the mystery he's referring to is the mystery of Jon's parents, I'm suggesting that his quote doesn't tell me the butler was Rhaegar. I agree that Jon's parentage was probably the correct puzzle.

This quote... whether or not you believe it references RLJ or not is one thing (personally, I see no other alternative given the details), but it directly refutes your assumption that Martin would change something because it's 'too obvious'.

No, no, no. I'm not suggesting Martin would change the solution to his mystery. I'm suggesting that the solution was never what you think.