R+L=J v.113

[UnmaskedLurker]

I have to disagree. Viserys wasn't safe, as they had to flee Dragonstone after Dany's birth, and especially so given the fact that Robert wanted them both dead, even many years later when they were poor, homeless and in Essos. They were always in danger, and no true KG would have considered it their duty to leave Viserys without any KG protection whatsoever.

Yes, I see from time to time this argument that because we know now that Robert did not chase down Viserys on Dragonstone, that the KG would have known Robert would not (or could not) do so. How could the KG know that? How could the KG really have any level of confidence that Viserys is really safe on Dragonstone given the information available to them? But the KG make no attempt to go to him and don't seem particularly interested in his welfare when talking to Ned. Would they do that if they thought Viserys was the rightful king? (rhetorical question, of course)

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

...any suggestion that alternatives haven't been considered time and again is underestimating the amount of research, consideration, etc., that has gone into the issue of Jon's parentage.

I certainly don't mean any disrespect to those who've already considered and dismissed alternative possibilities. And though I read the first two books years and years ago, I probably missed out on much of the early online discussion. So if you know of any past or current threads where I can find this sort of thing - research, consideration, etc., that you feel have helped to rule out other serious candidates as Jon Snow's father - I'd honestly appreciate the reference.

I can't point to anything more specific than previous versions of this thread. At least off the top of my head.

Just to follow up on this... are there particular alternatives that you recall have been researched and seriously considered here in the R+L=J threads? I don't think I've ever seen much discussion beyond Rhaegar himself.

[JonSnow4President]

Just to follow up on this... are there particular alternatives that you recall have been researched and seriously considered here in the R+L=J threads? I don't think I've ever seen much discussion beyond Rhaegar himself.

As seriously as a 9 month gestation allows. Unfortunately, can't give you thread numbers.

[J. Stargaryen]

Just to follow up on this... are there particular alternatives that you recall have been researched and seriously considered here in the R+L=J threads? I don't think I've ever seen much discussion beyond Rhaegar himself.

Aerys, Lyanna's brothers and father, Rhaegar's KG, Mance are all ideas I've seen discussed. Not sure how seriously they've been researched and/or considered. Some of them are non starters for various reasons. All of the Starks due to the timeline. Rhaegar's KG would seem to be ruled out since Ned's holds them in such high esteem. Someone had a legitimate go at Mance a while back. And I recall there being a few people who think Aerys is the father.

[sj4iy]

Just to follow up on this... are there particular alternatives that you recall have been researched and seriously considered here in the R+L=J threads? I don't think I've ever seen much discussion beyond Rhaegar himself.

There's been quite a lot, actually.

Most recent was that R+L=Dany and A+B=Jon, there was also a Dany/Jon are twins! theory.

But as far as research goes, any claim is put to the test in this thread (even R+L=J, as you can see), and all are heavily researched and analyzed. Usually, the first stumbling block for most theories is the timeline- and it's the most important, really. If your theory doesn't fit the facts concerning the timeline, then it simply cannot work. The two recent ones mentioned above hit that wall immediately, because the pairings simply cannot work given the facts known about the timeline. After that, it's a process of elimination.

There really isn't a debate about RLJ alternatives, because they have been so thoroughly argued and none have withstood the rigor. Really, the debate comes down to whether Jon is legitimate and how the information will be used in the future story.

[UnmaskedLurker]

Just to follow up on this... are there particular alternatives that you recall have been researched and seriously considered here in the R+L=J threads? I don't think I've ever seen much discussion beyond Rhaegar himself.

I have seen just about every possible alternative father mentioned. As sj4iy stated, virtually all can be eliminated based on the timeline. The only candidates (other than Rhaegar) that are not eliminated based on timeline would be Dayne and Whent and they are eliminated because--well because they are KG and in service to Rhaegar and Ned would not think highly of them if they broke their vows with Lyanna. So by process of elimination, Rhaegar really has to be the father.

[aDanceWithFlagons]

I wasn't "bent out of shape" about my handle. I use the search function to find replies to me and if a person has misspelled it without quoting me,I miss it.

You seem to need definitive proof that they had a long standing relationship beyond the obvious "they ran away together and were both in the ToJ during the time that Jon was conceived". Personally, I find that pretty damning evidence in its own right in regards to "Who are Jon's parents?" I don't see why further proof is necessary for this particular matter. Love isn't even necessary- timing is. And the only man that Lyanna was known to have been with at the time that Jon is conceived is Rhaegar.

Where is it written "they ran away together and were both in the ToJ during the time that Jon was conceived" in the books? Where is it shown that Lyanna was with Rhaegar, and is the only man,Lyanna has been with in all the time since she dissapeared? All I recall about that; she was taken by Rhaegar and buddies, then Ned finds her near death. Nowhere in between is there mention of the travels or company of Lyanna that I recall.

[The Twinslayer]

Except that Viserys WAS safe. There was no immediate danger to him; Dragonstone was not going to be invaded any time soon. It was nine months before Stannis had built the Baratheon fleet up enough to take Dragonstone, and that was only after the Targaryen fleet there had been smashed by a massive storm.

As I pointed out here the presence of Darry was enough. The Kingsguard would not actually have to be with Viserys even if they considered him to be the king, if they had some other duty to perform at the time.

No, there's no contradiction. I am not saying that the 3KG were not guarding Jon because they recognised him as the king, I'm saying we don't know. The 3KGs presence at the ToJ is no evidence that they considered him king, as it's entirely compatible with either scenario.

I agree.

Some of the analysis of the KG actions seems to reflect a fundamental misunderstanding of the Kingsguard as an institution. It was established during the reign of Aegon the Conqueror, when the king often rode into battle on the back of a dragon without any KGs on the dragon's back.

To avoid TWOIAF spoilers, consider two examples from the Princess and the Queen. The first involves Queen Rhaenyra, who traveled from Dragonstone to King's Landing without her KGs.

Meanwhile, Prince Daemon Targaryen himself hastened south on the wings of his dragon, Caraxes. Flying above the western shore of the God's Eye, well away from Ser Criston's line of march, he evaded the enemy host, crossed the Blackwater, then turned East following the river downstream to King's Landing. And on Dragonstone, Rhaenyra Targaryen donned a suit of gleaming black scale, mounted Syrax, and took flight as the rainstorm lashed the waters of Blackwater Bay. High above the city the queen and her prince consort came together, circling over Aegon's High Hill.

Mind you, Vhagar is on the loose, and Rhaenyra is alone with Syrax, so there is a very real possibility that she will be attacked by a superior force.

Then, the Gold Cloaks take the city for Rhaenyra, the other dragons arrive, and:

Prince Daemon circled the towers of the Red Keep before bringing Caraxes down in the outer ward. Only when he was certain that the defenders would offer him no harm did he signal for his wife the queen to descend upon Syrax.

So Rhaenyra was comfortable making a dangerous trip from Dragonstone to King's Landing without KGs and there is no suggestion her KGs tried to prevent her from doing this. Indeed, while she is alone, she sees to her own safety, and then when she gets to KL, Daemon seems to be in charge of her safety.

Then there is Aegon II:

Then came the answering roar. Criston Cole had sprung his trap. Two more winged shapes appeared: the king astride Sunfyre the Golden, and his brother Aemond upon Vhagar.

.

So here we have a plan cooked up by the Lord Commander of the KG to send the king into battle with no KG protection against Rhaenys and her huge dragon, Meleys. The result?

Those closest to the dragons did not live to tell the tale... But from those ashes, only Vhagar rose unharmed ... Sunfyre, that golden beast, had one wing half torn from his body whilst his royal rider had suffered broken ribs, a broken hip, and burns that covered half his body.

So Criston Cole had no problem letting Aegon go into a very dangerous situation where the fires were so hot they killed those nearest and even burned the king on his side.

The point is that the KG was established for a family that went into battle on dragons. There is no way there was some implicit KG obligation to make sure the king is always under KG protection. That would be completely unworkable.

[aDanceWithFlagons]

I have seen just about every possible alternative father mentioned. As sj4iy stated, virtually all can be eliminated based on the timeline. The only candidates (other than Rhaegar) that are not eliminated based on timeline would be Dayne and Whent and they are eliminated because--well because they are KG and in service to Rhaegar and Ned would not think highly of them if they broke their vows with Lyanna. So by process of elimination, Rhaegar really has to be the father.

I'm not so sure about the KG and Ned's opinions of them as crossing off the list of the potential father. I know Ned said that the KG were once a great institution, but the only one I recall mentioned by name is Dayne. Beyond that, did Ned hold Rhaegar in low esteem? He thought R didn't visit brothels, but never a bad word about Rhaegar. If he thought of Rhaegar favorably does that put him in the same category as the KG?

[sj4iy]

Where is it written "they ran away together and were both in the ToJ during the time that Jon was conceived" in the books? Where is it shown that Lyanna was with Rhaegar, and is the only man,Lyanna has been with in all the time since she dissapeared? All I recall about that; she was taken by Rhaegar and buddies, then Ned finds her near death. Nowhere in between is there mention of the travels or company of Lyanna that I recall.

There's something called "connecting the dots". Which I did. With the facts.

The book doesn't give us a detailed account of their travels together. But neither does the book give us any indication whatsoever that she was with any other man at the time of Jon's conception. Without the latter, there's no way to disprove that she wasn't with Rhaegar until he left for KL at his father's summons. The default is that she was with him because I can prove when they ran off together, and I can prove they were later together at the ToJ. You have nothing to disprove that they weren't.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I'm not so sure about the KG and Ned's opinions of them as crossing off the list of the potential father. I know Ned said that the KG were once a great institution, but the only one I recall mentioned by name is Dayne. Beyond that, did Ned hold Rhaegar in low esteem? He thought R didn't visit brothels, but never a bad word about Rhaegar. If he thought of Rhaegar favorably does that put him in the same category as the KG?

If Ned knew that Rhaegar and Lyanna's relationship was consensual and not rape, he wouldn't necessarily think badly of Rhaegar. Whereas if he thought the Kingsguard had slept with Lyanna, he'd think of them negatively whether it was consensual or not, because it'd be breaking their vows either way.

There's something called "connecting the dots". Which I did. With the facts.

And dots are all the book gives us. If it were spelled out explicitly to that poster's apparent satisfaction, the solution would be obvious and there'd be nothing to discuss because we'd already know.

[The Twinslayer]

Where is it written "they ran away together and were both in the ToJ during the time that Jon was conceived" in the books? Where is it shown that Lyanna was with Rhaegar, and is the only man,Lyanna has been with in all the time since she dissapeared? All I recall about that; she was taken by Rhaegar and buddies, then Ned finds her near death. Nowhere in between is there mention of the travels or company of Lyanna that I recall.

It seems pretty likely that if Lyanna had a baby, the father is Rhaegar.

If R+L does not = J it would be because Lyanna is not the mother. Women in the right place at the right time to have been the mother of Jon who had babies that may not be accounted for are (1) Lyanna (died in a bed of blood); (2) Ashara (supposedly had a stillbirth and then committed suicide, but this info may not be reliable); and (3) Wylla (she was a wet nurse, so she had a child, yet Ned Dayne, who believes Jon is her son, does not mention Wylla having any other children).

I think the parents are, more likely than not, Rhaegar and Lyanna, but if you are looking for others you might want to focus on other potential mothers rather than other potential fathers.

[Fire Eater]

I agree.

Some of the analysis of the KG actions seems to reflect a fundamental misunderstanding of the Kingsguard as an institution. It was established during the reign of Aegon the Conqueror, when the king often rode into battle on the back of a dragon without any KGs on the dragon's back.

To avoid TWOIAF spoilers, consider two examples from the Princess and the Queen. The first involves Queen Rhaenyra, who traveled from Dragonstone to King's Landing without her KGs. Mind you, Vhagar is on the loose, and Rhaenyra is alone with Syrax, so there is a very real possibility that she will be attacked by a superior force.

Except they obviously knew where Vhagar was, Harrenhal, and Aemond had no idea of the fall; of KL until days after it occurred. She had KG with her, it is clearly mentioned in TPatQ, she left KL with four KG.

Then, the Gold Cloaks take the city for Rhaenyra, the other dragons arrive, and:

So Rhaenyra was comfortable making a dangerous trip from Dragonstone to King's Landing without KGs and there is no suggestion her KGs tried to prevent her from doing this. Indeed, while she is alone, she sees to her own safety, and then when she gets to KL, Daemon seems to be in charge of her safety.

Because Rhaenyra was on the back of a dragon with other dragonriders loyal to her while the only able dragonrider, Aemond, was far away at Harrenhal. Also, Corlys's fleet was taking the city along with other Daemon's army. The KG do arrive in KL, Ser Glendon Goode and Ser Lorent Marbrand are mentioned.

hen there is Aegon II:

.

So here we have a plan cooked up by the Lord Commander of the KG to send the king into battle with no KG protection against Rhaenys and her huge dragon, Meleys. The result?

So Criston Cole had no problem letting Aegon go into a very dangerous situation where the fires were so hot they killed those nearest and even burned the king on his side.

The point is that the KG was established for a family that went into battle on dragons. There is no way there was some implicit KG obligation to make sure the king is always under KG protection. That would be completely unworkable.

How many KG can fly? Kings are allowed to fight in battle, and Aemond was with him on Vhagar, who was bigger than Meleys. Ser Criston Cole didn't take his vows too much to heart given his likely affair with Rhaenyra and butchering Mooton's smallfolk.

The KG stayed with their king not when they were on dragonback obviously, but when the kings were on the ground, definitely. Even Aegon I made sure to keep his KG about him when he wasn't on Balerion.

The problem with that argument is Viserys didn't have any dragons on Dragonstone. The KG's duty is to protect the king as the name suggests, and as Gerold Hightower and Jonothor Darry said. They would be endangering the king's life for the sake of a royal bastard. Lyanna didn't need KG in that scenario, they could have just sent for Starfall to send people to look after her while they went on a ship for Dragonstone.

[Ser Creighton]

Martin's obviously playing with the "hidden prince" trope generally and even Aragorn's specifically (and doing so with both Jon and Aegon's characters).

But having similarities to these things doesn't somehow mean that Jon is actually the "rightful" king in ASOIAF, that he'll be king because of R+L=J, that becoming king of the IT is even his best interest, or that he'd actually identify as anything other than Jon Snow, resident bastard.

ETA: I'm not sure if you were disagreeing with me to say to that these parallels mean Jon's arc plays out like Aragorn's did. If not, then we're not in disagreement, and yea, I think this is Martin's version of the way a hidden price plays out.

It would also seem that Aegon will subvert and is a detriment to Jon' claim no matter what he does at this point. If people believe him then forget it, he sits ahead of Jon. If they find out he is a fake then anyone claiming to be a hidden Targ is faced with the aftermath of Aegon. Martin continues to stack the deck against Jon but as you say is that really what is playing out. Is Jon' main purpose or story that he rises to be king?

I have never read Jon as the king returning. I always felt his plot revolved around a more mythical aspect than a political one. Not to say politics is not involved but that is just not what he is moving towards. Sansa feels like far more the political storyline that Jon. Aegon as well, Stannis and Mance are at an inverse, Stannis is more worried about his crown but is worried about the Others. Mance is more worried about the Others but understands/understood the need for politics. I say understood because Mance is probably a skin coat. Maybe a nice bomber jacket. He was tall though maybe a nice trench.

Should probably call it a night, I am spent at one point I thought I was watching the Bears/ Packers game but no it was an episode of OZ. It must of been an episode of OZ right? I mean that kind of thing only happens on that show.

And this is were you tell me you don't watch football Cookie.

[Kingmonkey]

I have to disagree. Viserys wasn't safe, as they had to flee Dragonstone after Dany's birth, and especially so given the fact that Robert wanted them both dead, even many years later when they were poor, homeless and in Essos. They were always in danger, and no true KG would have considered it their duty to leave Viserys without any KG protection whatsoever.

They had to flee Dragonstone after Dany's birth, yes. However, that was nine months later. There's a reason it took so long: Stannis had to built a fleet before it was possible to besiege Dragonstone. That gave plenty of time while Viserys was indeed safe.

[Kingmonkey]

Plus, their response as to why they weren't with Viserys was that they swore a vow. The vow of the KG is to protect the king (as said by the same guy who said "We swore a vow," LC Hightower), and their vows would have required them to go to Dragonstone when they heard of KL's fall and Aerys's death.

Nope, their vows do not require them to do that. It is allowed for the KG not to protect the king while they are busy doing something else, if they are confident the king is under protection. Where we see this, there is the specific example of Tommen under protection of brothers of two members of the Kingsguard. Viserys was also under the protection of a brother of a Kingsguard -- on an extremely defensible island with the Targaryen fleet, and the Baratheon fleet months away from being able to support a siege. We have a very clear parallel telling us that this is allowable for the Kingsguard.

Nor is "We swore a vow" a response to why they weren't with Viserys. It's an expansion of "The Kingsguard does not flee." The immediate response to why they weren't with Viserys and Darry is "Ser Willem is a good man and true", which seems like a perfectly reasonable response to the ritual "Will they keep him safe?" that the commander of the Kingsguard asks when assuring that the king is safe despite not being under the protection of a member of the Kingsguard.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Nope, their vows do not require them to do that. It is allowed for the KG not to protect the king while they are busy doing something else, if they are confident the king is under protection. Where we see this, there is the specific example of Tommen under protection of brothers of two members of the Kingsguard. Viserys was also under the protection of a brother of a Kingsguard -- on an extremely defensible island with the Targaryen fleet, and the Baratheon fleet months away from being able to support a siege. We have a very clear parallel telling us that this is allowable for the Kingsguard.

Nor is "We swore a vow" a response to why they weren't with Viserys. It's an expansion of "The Kingsguard does not flee." The immediate response to why they weren't with Viserys and Darry is "Ser Willem is a good man and true", which seems like a perfectly reasonable response to the ritual "Will they keep him safe?" that the commander of the Kingsguard asks when assuring that the king is safe despite not being under the protection of a member of the Kingsguard.

"Ser Willem is a good man and true."

"But not of the Kingsguard."

The bold is the operative part that you missed.

And also a staff meeting is a slightly less-intense situation than the royal family being deposed.

[tongji86]

It seems pretty likely that if Lyanna had a baby, the father is Rhaegar.

If R+L does not = J it would be because Lyanna is not the mother. Women in the right place at the right time to have been the mother of Jon who had babies that may not be accounted for are (1) Lyanna (died in a bed of blood); (2) Ashara (supposedly had a stillbirth and then committed suicide, but this info may not be reliable); and (3) Wylla (she was a wet nurse, so she had a child, yet Ned Dayne, who believes Jon is her son, does not mention Wylla having any other children).

I think the parents are, more likely than not, Rhaegar and Lyanna, but if you are looking for others you might want to focus on other potential mothers rather than other potential fathers.

I agree.

[Ser Creighton]

"Ser Willem is a good man and true."

"But not of the Kingsguard."

The bold is the operative part that you missed.

And also a staff meeting is a slightly less-intense situation than the royal family being deposed.

Yeah already went over that with him, doesn't care, good luck with it.

[Kingmonkey]

"Ser Willem is a good man and true."

"But not of the Kingsguard."

The bold is the operative part that you missed.

And also a staff meeting is a slightly less-intense situation than the royal family being deposed.

Osney and Osfryd Kettleblack and Garlan Tyrell were not members of the Kingsguard. Like Willem Darry, they were brothers to the Kingsguard.

Yes, a staff meeting is obviously a less intense situation than the royal family being deposed. However what we know from the text is that it is allowable for the Kingsguard to not attend the king if they have some duty to perform and they consider him safely guarded for the moment. Unless something can be found in the text that says that doesn't apply in the case of a king being deposed, then that is an assumption.

The idea that the 3KG would have had to go to Viserys straight away if they believed him to be the heir is an assumption that is not supported by the text. It may be a true assumption, it may be a false assumption, but it's certainly not evidence.