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[TWOIAF Spoilers] Tyrion, Son of the Mad King


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I think the entire point of the incest is to make it clear to readers that you need the dragon-rider gene to ride dragons (or alternatively perhaps a high enough % of dragon blood). If the original Valyrian dragon lord families faithfully practiced incest, than they have 100% chance of passing on the gene. Their numerous bastards, however, do not marry back into the families, and the gene may get passed on but will very likely be gone from the blood line within a few generations, meaning that dragon abilities are kept within the families.

I wasn't arguing against the idea that you need Valyrian blood to ride a dragon - I actually believe that you do need it. I was arguing against the notion that specific bloodlines of dragons are bound to specific dragonlord families, because I don't feel the text really supports this idea.

The dragonriding gene would, if released through a bastard line into a population where the gene is rare, have a 50/50 chance of being passed to subsequent children, so it might or might not die out. But in a society where the entire ruling class has the gene, and they're all siring bastards at the normal rate of elites, within a thousand years the gene will be present in the vast majority of the population. Therefore, we must turn to socioeconomic explanations to figure out why most Valyrians didn't ride dragons.

We know from TPatQ that there were plenty of "dragonseeds" capable of mounting dragons on Dragonstone, but they didn't get the opportunity to obtain dragons until the Dance. I think most anyone from Lys could ride a dragon too, given the opportunity, which they never had.

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I wasn't arguing against the idea that you need Valyrian blood to ride a dragon - I actually believe that you do need it. I was arguing against the notion that specific bloodlines of dragons are bound to specific dragonlord families, because I don't feel the text really supports this idea.

The dragonriding gene would, if released through a bastard line into a population where the gene is rare, have a 50/50 chance of being passed to subsequent children, so it might or might not die out. But in a society where the entire ruling class has the gene, and they're all siring bastards at the normal rate of elites, within a thousand years the gene will be present in the vast majority of the population. Therefore, we must turn to socioeconomic explanations to figure out why most Valyrians didn't ride dragons.

We know from TPatQ that there were plenty of "dragonseeds" capable of mounting dragons on Dragonstone, but they didn't get the opportunity to obtain dragons until the Dance. I think most anyone from Lys could ride a dragon too, given the opportunity, which they never had.

GRRM has stated that genetics on Planetos are not the same as real-world genetics. So your notion of one specific "dragon gene" on a certain DNA allele is not how it would work in the series. GRRM has stated that incest was used to keep the bloodline pure to better control the dragons. The "genetic" dragonblood bond likely is the result of ancient blood magic, so again, the notion of normal genetic inheritance does not apply.

I believe that the implication of the story is that a bastard child of a Varlyian dragonlord who survived the Doom might have a child or grandchild that could bond with a dragon, but after a certain number of generations, the percentage of "dragonlord blood" would be too diluted. Of course real-world genetics don't work that way, but the implication regarding the "right drop" of Targ blood and BBP having "two drops" of Targ blood suggest that too many non-dragonlord ancestors makes the likelihood of being able to bond with a dragon more remote. And even 100% dragonlord blood cannot guarantee the ability to bond, so the magic is more complicated than any analogy to real-world genetics. My interpretation of this information is that unless someone has a relatively recent Targ ancestor, riding a dragon will not be possible. And any descendants of non-Targ dragonlord bastards would be too far removed from their dragonlord ancestors to bond with a dragon (unless the bastards managed somehow to keep inter-marrying among only themselves to maintain their bloodline strength--which is unlikely to have happened).

GRRM is setting up a situation in which only a small number of people are left with the right "drop" of blood--and only Targ blood is left that can bond with a dragon. Reading between the lines (so to speak) makes this conclusion fairly evident (IMHO).

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GRRM has stated that genetics on Planetos are not the same as real-world genetics. So your notion of one specific "dragon gene" on a certain DNA allele is not how it would work in the series. GRRM has stated that incest was used to keep the bloodline pure to better control the dragons. The "genetic" dragonblood bond likely is the result of ancient blood magic, so again, the notion of normal genetic inheritance does not apply.

I believe that the implication of the story is that a bastard child of a Varlyian dragonlord who survived the Doom might have a child or grandchild that could bond with a dragon, but after a certain number of generations, the percentage of "dragonlord blood" would be too diluted. Of course real-world genetics don't work that way, but the implication regarding the "right drop" of Targ blood and BBP having "two drops" of Targ blood suggest that too many non-dragonlord ancestors makes the likelihood of being able to bond with a dragon more remote. And even 100% dragonlord blood cannot guarantee the ability to bond, so the magic is more complicated than any analogy to real-world genetics. My interpretation of this information is that unless someone has a relatively recent Targ ancestor, riding a dragon will not be possible. And any descendants of non-Targ dragonlord bastards would be too far removed from their dragonlord ancestors to bond with a dragon (unless the bastards managed somehow to keep inter-marrying among only themselves to maintain their bloodline strength--which is unlikely to have happened).

GRRM is setting up a situation in which only a small number of people are left with the right "drop" of blood--and only Targ blood is left that can bond with a dragon. Reading between the lines (so to speak) makes this conclusion fairly evident (IMHO).

The section on Lys says that the nobles there prize purity of blood above all, so it seems the Lyseni have maintained a very high concentration of dragonlord blood.

I see no reason, none at all, to buy into any of this "right drop" stuff. My inclination is to believe that Valyrian blood is dragon's blood, full stop. BBP has a right drop and the dragons like him, but he's not a rider. I could change my opinion if contrary evidence comes forward, but this argument seems to be based on wishful thinking rather than logic. I think it would be very like GRRM to make random peasants from Lys better dragonriders than Dany.

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The section on Lys says that the nobles there prize purity of blood above all, so it seems the Lyseni have maintained a very high concentration of dragonlord blood.

I see no reason, none at all, to buy into any of this "right drop" stuff. My inclination is to believe that Valyrian blood is dragon's blood, full stop. BBP has a right drop and the dragons like him, but he's not a rider. I could change my opinion if contrary evidence comes forward, but this argument seems to be based on wishful thinking rather than logic. I think it would be very like GRRM to make random peasants from Lys better dragonriders than Dany.

IIRC--there were Targs who tried and failed to bond with a dragon while others with the identical amount of Targ blood were able to bond. I think that might be your proof.

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I love all the different theories that people come up with but it makes me laugh when people rebut by saying "there's no proof." Well, duh! This is a book series. Why would there be "proof" of such a huge plot twist? It's all about finding the tiny clues and piecing together a purposely incomplete puzzle and the proof will only come in the chapter GRRM wants it to.

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I wasn't arguing against the idea that you need Valyrian blood to ride a dragon - I actually believe that you do need it. I was arguing against the notion that specific bloodlines of dragons are bound to specific dragonlord families, because I don't feel the text really supports this idea.

The dragonriding gene would, if released through a bastard line into a population where the gene is rare, have a 50/50 chance of being passed to subsequent children, so it might or might not die out. But in a society where the entire ruling class has the gene, and they're all siring bastards at the normal rate of elites, within a thousand years the gene will be present in the vast majority of the population. Therefore, we must turn to socioeconomic explanations to figure out why most Valyrians didn't ride dragons.

We know from TPatQ that there were plenty of "dragonseeds" capable of mounting dragons on Dragonstone, but they didn't get the opportunity to obtain dragons until the Dance. I think most anyone from Lys could ride a dragon too, given the opportunity, which they never had.

I think we are in agreement on how the dragon-rider blood works but I think you haven't thought through the math on this. If only an elite class of people have dragon blood, it doesn't matter how many bastards they have, the blood will be super-ultra-diluted in the general population. If, say 1% of Valyrians were dragon-lords (I have no clue what the actual percentage was), and even if they sired as many bastards as they did heirs, then only like 1% of the general population (in a generation) would have 50% dragon blood. Then they would marry mostly normal people, and then 2% of the population would have 25% dragon blood. So continuing with this super hypothetical math, if the dragon lords comprised 1% of the population, then after many generations the general population would all have some dragon blood, but it would be diluted to < 1%, thus no dragon riders in general population of Valyria.

To think of it another way, practicing incest is the ongoing price families had to pay forever after the initial blood magic that bonded them to the dragons.

EDIT: I have no evidence that specific dragon families were/are bonded to specific Valyrian families, just a thought I had that seems plausible, though not too important in current ASOIAF.

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^^ 40 thousand Skeletons,

well....I just don't believe in the A+J=T theory, and am convinced that Valyrian blood is necessary to ride a dragon...

I find that Tyrion's character arc is richer if he is indeed Tywin's son. Their relationship is such a defining pillar of Tyrion's identity that it would be a shame if they weren't father and son. And we do have enough other potential secret Targs around to pick from. There's plenty of things Tyrion can and will do without riding a dragon; what did Robert say? The King shits, and the Hand...?

Also Tyrion's martial prowess during the battle for Blackwater bay was rather a stretch no? -- didn't GRRM admit that he might have gone over the top?

Tyrion's one defining trait from the beginning is his genius, cunning and knowledge, his ability to read people. His one strength is his mind. His ingenuity and wit. Most importantly, Tyrion enjoyed being Hand and he certainly enjoys playing cyvasse. And that to me hints at a future of devising battle stratagems and/or of advising kings... Like Genna said, from among his two sons, Tyrion is the one resembling Tywin most.

If Tyrion does not ride a dragon I will believe he is most likely Tywin's son, but I expect him to ride a dragon, so that informs my current leaning toward A+J=T being true. Yes, there is lots Tyrion can do without riding a dragon.

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IIRC--there were Targs who tried and failed to bond with a dragon while others with the identical amount of Targ blood were able to bond. I think that might be your proof.

I remember that there were some children who had eggs placed in their cradles that didn't hatch, and I recall that Addam Velaryon bonded with Seasmoke while his twin brother Alyn failed, but "some Targs bonded with dragons while others didn't" has no bearing on the question of whether you need Targaryen blood or simply Valyrian blood to be a dragonrider.

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I think we are in agreement on how the dragon-rider blood works but I think you haven't thought through the math on this. If only an elite class of people have dragon blood, it doesn't matter how many bastards they have, the blood will be super-ultra-diluted in the general population. If, say 1% of Valyrians were dragon-lords (I have no clue what the actual percentage was), and even if they sired as many bastards as they did heirs, then only like 1% of the general population (in a generation) would have 50% dragon blood. Then they would marry mostly normal people, and then 2% of the population would have 25% dragon blood. So continuing with this super hypothetical math, if the dragon lords comprised 1% of the population, then after many generations the general population would all have some dragon blood, but it would be diluted to < 1%, thus no dragon riders in general population of Valyria.

To think of it another way, practicing incest is the ongoing price families had to pay forever after the initial blood magic that bonded them to the dragons.

EDIT: I have no evidence that specific dragon families were/are bonded to specific Valyrian families, just a thought I had that seems plausible, though not too important in current ASOIAF.

What you've described is what would happen if one generation of dragonlords sired a crop of bastards, and then no subsequent generation ever did the same.

But of course that's not right, the fathering of bastards is taking place in every generation. Since the elite is endogamous, their blood is not diluted, and they give the commons another injection of 1-2% dragon blood every generation. That adds up over centuries, and once you've gone through 50 generations or so the dragonlord genes are ubiquitous. And they keep accumulating even after that. Plus, the elite have a huge advantage over the commons in all things and often give their bastards a leg up in life, increasing the bastards' number of offspring. This pattern ensures that eventually the elite blood would displace much of the common blood.

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I remember that there were some children who had eggs placed in their cradles that didn't hatch, and I recall that Addam Velaryon bonded with Seasmoke while his twin brother Alyn failed, but "some Targs bonded with dragons while others didn't" has no bearing on the question of whether you need Targaryen blood or simply Valyrian blood to be a dragonrider.

I think UnmaskedLurker's point was that even people with a relatively high percentage of dragon blood aren't guaranteed to be able to bond with dragons, let alone all the Valyrians/Lysene with extremely low percentages of dragon blood. I also think it would be funny and GRRM-like to make peasants from Lys better dragon riders than Dany, but then what is the point of all the incest?

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What you've described is what would happen if one generation of dragonlords sired a crop of bastards, and then no subsequent generation ever did the same.

But of course that's not right, the fathering of bastards is taking place in every generation. Since the elite is endogamous, their blood is not diluted, and they give the commons another injection of 1-2% dragon blood every generation. That adds up over centuries, and once you've gone through 50 generations or so the dragonlord genes are ubiquitous. And they keep accumulating even after that. Plus, the elite have a huge advantage over the commons in all things and often give their bastards a leg up in life, increasing the bastards' number of offspring. This pattern ensures that eventually the elite blood would displace much of the common blood.

I realize every subsequent generation would do the same thing. I contend you are still not thinking through the math here. The commoners ALSO keep having children (duh) and that contributes to the dilution of dragon blood. So pretend for a minute that there was no incest going on and for a single generation, 1% of the people had 100% dragon blood and 99% had 0% dragon blood. After many generations and the blood becoming uniformly distributed amongst the population (more or less), then EVERYONE WOULD HAVE 1% DRAGON BLOOD. As is, the elite do practice incest, so while the rest of the population's dragon blood slowly averages out to 1% from mating with dragon bastards (or whatever % represents the portion of dragon lords in Valyria) the dragon lords themselves maintain 100% dragon blood while at the same time not mixing as much with everyone else because they are marrying their own siblings.

EDIT: So you are correct that it would increase a little over time from the pure dragon seed injections into the population, but it is still such a tiny percentage I don't think we can consider the general population of Valyria to have dragon-blood sufficient to bond with dragons.

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I realize every subsequent generation would do the same thing. I contend you are still not thinking through the math here. The commoners ALSO keep having children (duh) and that contributes to the dilution of dragon blood. So pretend for a minute that there was no incest going on and for a single generation, 1% of the people had 100% dragon blood and 99% had 0% dragon blood. After many generations and the blood becoming uniformly distributed amongst the population (more or less), then EVERYONE WOULD HAVE 1% DRAGON BLOOD. As is, the elite do practice incest, so while the rest of the population's dragon blood slowly averages out to 1% from mating with dragon bastards (or whatever % represents the portion of dragon lords in Valyria) the dragon lords themselves maintain 100% dragon blood while at the same time not mixing as much with everyone else because they are marrying their own siblings.

Yes the commoners keep having kids - but their children are always, always, ALWAYS fewer in number than those of the elite, both trueborn and bastards, because they don't have as many resources to feed and care for them and give them the opportunities that would allow them to sire more children of their own. If we assume that the overall size of the Valyrian population is constrained by the usual Malthusian issues that constrained all premodern populations, the common blood would indeed get pushed out over time by the elite, because the average commoner would produce fewer than 2 offspring surviving long enough to breed, while the average elite person would produce more than 2.

And while the incest preserves 100% dragonblood in the trueborn children of the dragonlords, every generation of male dragonlords is mating with commoners on the side and adding more dragon blood to the population, while no common blood is being returned to the elite. Since the population is constrained, it's like adding a drop of juice to a cup of water, removing a drop of the resulting fluid, adding another drop of juice, removing another drop of the water-juice solution, adding another drop of juice, etc ad infinitum. Eventually you are going to end up with straight juice, or near enough as makes no matter.

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Yes the commoners keep having kids - but their children are always, always, ALWAYS fewer in number than those of the elite, both trueborn and bastards, because they don't have as many resources to feed and care for them and give them the opportunities that would allow them to sire more children of their own. If we assume that the overall size of the Valyrian population is constrained by the usual Malthusian issues that constrained all premodern populations, the common blood would indeed get pushed out over time by the elite, because the average commoner would produce fewer than 2 offspring surviving long enough to breed, while the average elite person would produce more than 2.

Why would the average commoner produce fewer than 2 surviving offspring? That isn't how the world works, population generally grows over time, whether poor or elite. I guess a relevant question here is how big was the elite class of Valyria? If they comprised 20% of the population then I would say your points have a lot of merit, but I feel like dragon lords probably comprised way less of the population than that, closer to 1 in 1000 people or something. Given a million years, yeah eventually the incest-maintained dragon blood could take over like you describe, but I suspect there was simply not enough dragon blood or time for that to happen.

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Why would the average commoner produce fewer than 2 surviving offspring? That isn't how the world works, population generally grows over time, whether poor or elite. I guess a relevant question here is how big was the elite class of Valyria? If they comprised 20% of the population then I would say your points have a lot of merit, but I feel like dragon lords probably comprised way less of the population than that, closer to 1 in 1000 people or something. Given a million years, yeah eventually the incest-maintained dragon blood could take over like you describe, but I suspect there was simply not enough dragon blood or time for that to happen.

No, population doesn't "generally grow over time", it grows when improvements in technology and food supply allow it to grow. In the premodern era population growth was excruciatingly slow, because famines and wars over scarce arable land held the population within the land's carrying capacity. Recently we've had explosive growth that was never possible before, because the pace of technological improvement sped up dramatically.

Even accounting for the fact that Valyria was an empire, and expanded into other lands giving its population a higher ceiling than most, there was still a ceiling on how large they could grow. And regardless of the exact height and movability of said ceiling, dragonlords were, without a doubt, producing more offspring than commoners, leading their blood to increase as a percent of the population while the percentage of common blood decreased. I edited in another paragraph into my previous comment to illustrate.

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EDIT: So you are correct that it would increase a little over time from the pure dragon seed injections into the population, but it is still such a tiny percentage I don't think we can consider the general population of Valyria to have dragon-blood sufficient to bond with dragons.

It doesn't increase "a little over time" it increases a little every generation. Valyria was around for a long time, and an increase of 1-2% every generation adds up to a very high percentage over many generations.

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It doesn't increase "a little over time" it increases a little every generation. Valyria was around for a long time, and an increase of 1-2% every generation adds up to a very high percentage over many generations.

You make many good points. I suppose if their were enough dragon lords and enough time you could be totally right. If however, specific dragons (and their offspring) were actually bonded to specific families as I suggested might be the case, then the general dilution of dragon blood into the population doesn't really matter. I think this might be the case as it explains the incest. Otherwise I would expect the Valyrian elite to simply have intermarried, keeping dragon blood pure but not bothering with the incest.

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I've written this in another thread but... I was re-reading ADoD yesterday and came upon an this Tyrion quote

"When he was still a lonely child in the depths of Casterly Rock, he oft rode dragons through the nights, pretending he was some lost Targaryen princeling, or a Valerian dragonlord soaring high o'er field and mountains."

The evidence is mounting up, but GRRM doesn't seem to be the happy endings, 'dream it and it will be' type. I really think the J/A hints are just a red herring. It's lovely that Tyrion wishes he were a Targ so that he may ride a dragon. But it's still possible (although I like this theory even less) that he could be a dragon rider without having Targ blood/ or no dragon rider at all, but at least he gets to see them, which would in a way fulfil his dream.

I'm just not fully convinced that GRRM would have two secret Targs in Westeros, it would start to feel a bit Melrose place.

Melrose Planetos

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Even a co-author of WOIAF (Ran) acknowledged after the book came out that the information about Joanna going to KL in 272 AC added fuel to the fire of A+J=T. So there are many clues intentionally added by GRRM. If he did not mean these clues to lead to A+J=T being true, then what are the purposes for the clues?

GRRM build in just as many clues concerning Cersei/Jaime as potential Targaryens; and even build a parallel between Jaime and Rhaegar (especially interesting are the colors Jaime wears for the feast in Winterfell..). in any case, other parallels exist between Rhaegar and Mance Rayder; Lyanna and Alys; Alys and Arya; Arya and Lyanna; Jaime and Brandon; Jon and Jaime... to me, it's the way GRRM works, and its what makes his writing so rich, because not one story line or character is a 'stand alone'; his books are like a gigantic puzzle where all the pieces find echo in each other.

For a lot of people starting on the series, Jon is the son of Ashara and Ned. Because GRRM intentionally mentions it; makes it a plausible possibility,until further analyze and the dropping of contradictory clues make the reader question that version of events.... Does GRRM want us to think Tyrion is the son of Aerys? possibly. I think at the very least, he wants us to entertain the possibility and I don't doubt that he's finding amusement in it.

Does the fact that he's dropping clues intentionally mean that the most logical conclusion we should draw from it, must be that Tyrion is the son of Aerys? Or is GRRM directing our attention away from something else and toward a red-herring? What is his true intention?

  • It could be, that GRRM's intention was no more no less than to tell us about Aerys and Tywin, their relationship and rivalry; thus giving us a better idea of what happened prior to Robert's Rebellion.

It could be that GRRM wants us to think Tyrion is a Targaryen bastard, so that we will not question the past of other characters we've met like Aegon, Varys, Illyrio etc.

It could be that some of these clues were meant to let us know Aerys as a frivolous man, turning Rhaella's ladies in waiting into 'whores.' And if that was the case, what's to say he stopped there and did not turn other ladies into his personal whores? -- more on that later.

It could be all of the above, at the same time.

Sure, some could probably argue that in that case, R+L=J is nothing so certain either. The difference though between R+L and A+J; is that there is absolutely no mystery concerning Tyrion's birth when in the case of R+L, GRRM establishes the mystery right from the start in Jon's arc.

Jon's very identity as a boy depends on the question of who his mother is, and its a question that causes him anguish, that won't even let him alone in his dreams. In Jon's case, the defining pillar of his identity is the mystery of his birth, and his status... for Tyrion, that pillar is his relationship to Tywin; the very fact that he is a son of Tywin Lannister one of the proudest men in the 7k; and that he, Tyrion, can never even hope to gain Tywin's approval.

Also I find, that most 'clues' are open to interpretation.

  • Tyrion's eyes are not the same color, yes -- but Aerys does not have black eyes; the argument would be more powerful if Tyrion had one green and one violet/purple eye.

Tyrion has pale hair. Yes -- but he also has black hair. Both Aerys and Joanna have pale hair, sliver and blond. [Tyrion's coloring in fact makes it more likely he is the bastard of Euron Greyjoy (black hair, mismatched eyes, raider and rapist), than the bastard of Aerys!]

Tyrion was born a dwarf. Yes. -- it's not stated that any Targaryen was ever born with that condition, only that some had a 'deformed' and scaled body...it's also not stated that Aerys's children by Rhaella had any sort of uncommon physical condition, only that they were premature, stillborn, or died early in infancy.

Tyrion 'dreamed' of dragons. In context, Tyrion sounds like 'oh you know when I was young, I dreamed of being an astronaut'. His dreams have nothing in common with the prophetic dragon dreams known to Targaryens.

Tyrion will ride a dragon (thus he must have Targaryan blood)... see post #70

[As a side note:

On Aerys being frivolous, and turning ladies in waiting into whores -- When GRRM gives us clues about Aerys's character, we should try to see these in lights of other story lines and mysteries we are presented with. One of these is the question of Jon's mother -- a mystery that introduces Ashara Dayne into the plot, a character we have yet to understand the importance of. Another mystery appearing later in the books, is the identity of the man who dishonored Ashara Dayne.

Ashara's story has seemingly nothing to do with Aerys, yet I'll argue that the very presence of Aerys at the tourney of Harrenhall, Ashara's position as one of Elia's ladies in waiting, her being sister to Ser Arthur Dayne, gives us enough reasons to see their stories as connected. The tourney of Harrenhal is a central point of Asoiaf; one where many story lines join -- it marks the start of Jon's story, sets the premise for the rebellion -- and brings the Targaryens, Ashara, and the Starks together.

To me, Ashara is a character that stands out, and that alone is intriguing. Edric and Gerold Dayne are only on the margins of asoiaf, yet Arthur and Ashara are mentioned surprisingly often. It seems there were each in a way involved in R+L; yet, while Arthur's role can easily be guessed at, Ashara's role is less straight forward, and her frequent mention leaves me curious.

There's been theories of Aerys raping Ashara at Harrenhal, and Ashara turning to Stark (Brandon) for help. I find WoiaF does give it more credibility and that this theory puts Brandon's reaction at Lyanna's crowning, and his challenging Rhaegar to death in perspective. And of course, it's creates a symmetry between Lyanna and Ashara -- Ashara who was raped, and is suspected of being Jon's mother; and Lyanna who is Jon's mother, and is suspected of having been raped...

If Ashara was raped by Aerys, I am however, less inclined to think Aerys also raped Joanna...though I'm inclined to believe Aerys and Joanna were involved before her marriage to Tywin, and before Aerys lost his mind.]

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The section on Lys says that the nobles there prize purity of blood above all, so it seems the Lyseni have maintained a very high concentration of dragonlord blood.

I see no reason, none at all, to buy into any of this "right drop" stuff. My inclination is to believe that Valyrian blood is dragon's blood, full stop.

Valyrian blood isn't equal to dragonlord blood. The dragons lords were Valyrians, but not all Valyrians were dragonlords.

Lys has a high concentration of the blood of Old Valyria.. but that doesn't necessarily mean that they all descend from dragonriders.. and those who do, have at least 500 years between the last dragonrider, and themselves..

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