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Ygrain

R+L=J v.117

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The onus is not on BQ87 to prove a negative. The onus is on you to provide evidence that there is any merit at all to the notion of Aegon being at the ToJ.

An onus, eh? Funny, it doesn't feel particularly onerous... almost 43% of the KG was stationed there when Ned and his friends went riding by. Seems like the possibility is worth considering. Not sure how it can be ruled it out.

Either:

  1. Rhaegar's son Aegon was at the tower of joy; or

Rhaegar's son Aegon was not at the tower of joy

BearQueen picked option # 2. I think it's worth considering option # 1. I don't think either of us can confirm our selection, regardless - but she sounded pretty confident, so I just thought I'd ask.

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One idea I've read is that Allyria Dayne, Beric's fiancée, is actually Brandon and Ashara's child. In particular, that would explain the Ned-Beric connection: Beric would soon be Ned's nephew-in-law by the time Ned needs to send somebody to find Gregor Clegane.

I do kind of like this idea. It has the problem that it's really just based on filling an empty page - we just don't know much about the Daynes, so there's room for wild speculation. We're told that Allyria, Ashara, and Arthur are the younger siblings of an unnamed Lord Dayne who's Edric's dad. That's just about it. We don't really know anything about Allyria except that she's younger than Ashara.

What can we figure out about the Dayne family?

Edric was born in 287, and is as of 299 Lord Dayne.

Edric's father -- I'll call him Nobby, 'cos why not, must have died between 287 and 299

Edric was 7 when he was squired to Dondarrion, at the same time Allyria was betrothed to him -- 294

Allyria was old enough to be betrothed in 294

Allyria's marriage to Dondarrion had not yet happened before Dondarrion departed for the riverlands in 298

Now this suggest that Allyria was a bit young yet. If she was Ashara and Brandon's son, she would be born in late 282 or early 283. This would put her at around 11 at the time of the betrothal, and 15 when Dondarrion left for the riverlands. That works pretty nicely.

If Allyria was significantly older than this, then it would be odd that the marriage hadn't taken place yet. If she was much younger, it would be odd for her to be betrothed yet. A reasonable range of birth years for Allyria is 280-286 (between minimum 8 years at betrothal to maximum 18 years old and still unmarried) but 282-284 are most likely.

If Ashara was 15 at Harrenhal, she'd have been born in 266, some 14 years earlier than the earliest likely date for Allyria. As far as I know the earliest we hear of Arthur being active is 281 against the Kingswood Brotherhood, though he appears to already have a significant reputation by then and is an important Kingsguard member. It's unlikely he was born significantly later than 260. Nobby might have been born in 259 or earlier. That gives a minimum range for the four siblings (if that is what they are) of 21 years which is surprising but certainly not impossible. It's certainly nothing compared to the age ranges of Walder Frey's brood.

One oddity about House Dayne is the lack of Daynes. Who's acting as Edric's regent? He was sent off to become Dondarrion's squire, along with Allyria, the only two named members of the family we know about. I'd suggest this would be rather unlikely unless either Nobby Dayne or his wife was still alive to make that decision in 294. Nobby's wife could still be alive and ruling at Starfall today.

If Allyria is Ashara and Brandon's daughter, I guess one major question is why the secrecy?

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... to explain why those KG made no attempt to guard Aerys... the very king to whom they had sworn their vow... when he was in obvious mortal peril.

Actually, it is no use with hindsight. Aerys was in no mortal peril. The only person we ever learn of possibly secretly plotting for his murder was a Kingsguard.

And I doubt it was a plot, more the necessity of the situation. Who besides Jamie would have known of Mad Aerys' plot to blow up the whole city including himself with tons of TNT wildfire?

Absurd is that situation. Rhaegar was believed to squash the robellion. Aerys II never was in any obvioux danger but he was guarded by one of the finest knights of the realm, behind the walls of Maegor's holdfast and those of the Red Keep and those of King's Landing, manned by thousands of gold cloaks... no one could have been any safer at that time

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An onus, eh? Funny, it doesn't feel particularly onerous... almost 43% of the KG was stationed there when Ned and his friends went riding by. Seems like the possibility is worth considering. Not sure how it can be ruled it out.

Either:

  1. Rhaegar's son Aegon was at the tower of joy; or

Rhaegar's son Aegon was not at the tower of joy

BearQueen picked option # 2. I think it's worth considering option # 1. I don't think either of us can confirm our selection, regardless - but she sounded pretty confident, so I just thought I'd ask.

"What can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence." - Christopher Hitchens (Hitchens' razor)

"The onus is on you to say why, the onus is not on the rest of us to say why not." - Richard Dawkins

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Is that a serious question?

We have a mystery which will be revealed later and in order to do so, there have to be planted hints towards the reveal without giving it away too soon. The ToJ dream is an awesome piece of writing, very compelling, providing shades of meaning which, in hindsight, will fit to the puzzle. What is there about it not to understand?

Perfectly serious and as you'll recall I have in the past laid out an alternative interpretation of the episode which is consistent both with GRRM's response about obeying orders and his comments on a fever dream.

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If Allyria is Ashara and Brandon's daughter, I guess one major question is why the secrecy?

To give her a chance at a good life? As a legitimate Dayne, she has much better options than a bastard, even in Dorne, not to mention the ugly history of her mother's dishonour which may further hamper her chances.

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I do kind of like this idea. It has the problem that it's really just based on filling an empty page - we just don't know much about the Daynes, so there's room for wild speculation. We're told that Allyria, Ashara, and Arthur are the younger siblings of an unnamed Lord Dayne who's Edric's dad. That's just about it. We don't really know anything about Allyria except that she's younger than Ashara.

What can we figure out about the Dayne family?

Edric was born in 287, and is as of 299 Lord Dayne.

Edric's father -- I'll call him Nobby, 'cos why not, must have died between 287 and 299

Edric was 7 when he was squired to Dondarrion, at the same time Allyria was betrothed to him -- 294

Allyria was old enough to be betrothed in 294

Allyria's marriage to Dondarrion had not yet happened before Dondarrion departed for the riverlands in 298

Now this suggest that Allyria was a bit young yet. If she was Ashara and Brandon's son, she would be born in late 282 or early 283. This would put her at around 11 at the time of the betrothal, and 15 when Dondarrion left for the riverlands. That works pretty nicely.

If Allyria was significantly older than this, then it would be odd that the marriage hadn't taken place yet. If she was much younger, it would be odd for her to be betrothed yet. A reasonable range of birth years for Allyria is 280-286 (between minimum 8 years at betrothal to maximum 18 years old and still unmarried) but 282-284 are most likely.

If Ashara was 15 at Harrenhal, she'd have been born in 266, some 14 years earlier than the earliest likely date for Allyria. As far as I know the earliest we hear of Arthur being active is 281 against the Kingswood Brotherhood, though he appears to already have a significant reputation by then and is an important Kingsguard member. It's unlikely he was born significantly later than 260. Nobby might have been born in 259 or earlier. That gives a minimum range for the four siblings (if that is what they are) of 21 years which is surprising but certainly not impossible. It's certainly nothing compared to the age ranges of Walder Frey's brood.

One oddity about House Dayne is the lack of Daynes. Who's acting as Edric's regent? He was sent off to become Dondarrion's squire, along with Allyria, the only two named members of the family we know about. I'd suggest this would be rather unlikely unless either Nobby Dayne or his wife was still alive to make that decision in 294. Nobby's wife could still be alive and ruling at Starfall today.

If Allyria is Ashara and Brandon's daughter, I guess one major question is why the secrecy?

Perhaps the Jack Nicholson affect, (his birth mother was his "sister"), so what Ygrain said.

Maybe it wasn't to Ned, nor the adults in Edrics life, but the Tullys catching wind of this would put both Stark and the Daynes in hot water, something that neither family could afford, which is why I speculate that Arya might have been meant for House Dayne in payment for that dishonor had things turned out normally.

That may have been what Edric was going to approach Ned about at the tournament but lost his nerve.

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Has Ethan Glover been confirmed to have been in the dungeons the whole Rebellion? Is there anything new about him in TWOIAF?

Nothing new. We know that he is Brandon's squire and rides with him to King's Landing. The next time we see him is when he a member of Ned's tower party.

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"What can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence." - Christopher Hitchens (Hitchens' razor)

"The onus is on you to say why, the onus is not on the rest of us to say why not." - Richard Dawkins

Hey - you're the one who's focusing on everyone's onus. And in my view, Hitchens' razor provides good reason to dismiss the entire RLJ theory...

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Hey - you're the one who's focusing on everyone's onus. And in my view, Hitchens' razor provides good reason to dismiss the entire RLJ theory...

Except there is evidence for it. Anyone who denies that the book supports the theories is being willfully contrarian. I'm not saying they have to agree, but the evidence is clearly there. At that point, the onus shifts to the other side to show why that evidence is horseshit.

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Hey - you're the one who's focusing on everyone's onus. And in my view, Hitchens' razor provides good reason to dismiss the entire RLJ theory...

Absolutely I agree that the onus is on anyone asserting RLJ to demonstrate that it is a valid theory. Anyone who merely asserted RLJ without any evidence would and should be disregarded as putting forth a worthless theory. The evidence, however, for RLJ is overwhelming once all the clues are considered. The supporters of RLJ have more than satisfied any onus to demonstrate the validity of the theory. In other words, the burden of proof is on the person proposing the theory--and the burden of proof has been met with RLJ. It has not been met regarding any theory involving Aegon being at ToJ.

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So why go through all that exchange if all they had to do was say we are protecting the King, and if coming out with that spoiler would ruin everything [and it would] why insert that passage in the first place?

...because the last thing they would do in that situation is give away the fact that they are protecting the new Targaryen heir to a man who helped Robert depose the Targaryens?

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Perhaps we could, as it was brought up, discuss the connections with house Dayne. Let's look at the facts:

Some Stark -- maybe Ned, maybe Brandon, possibly both -- have a thing for Ashara Dayne, and somone, maybe one of them, gets her pregnant.

Ned (actually Howland, with a single mighty blow from his frog) kills Arthur Dayne.

Ned returns Dawn to Starfell.

The Daynes lend Ned a trusted servant to wetnurse Jon.

Ashara commits suicide (so 'tis said).

Wylla returns to Starfall.

In response to rumours that Ashara was Jon's mother, Eddard angrily refuses to allow Ashara's name to even be mentioned at Winterfell.

A few years later, Arthur's unnamed brother who I believe we know nothing about, has a son and names him Edric, suspiciously similar to the name of his brother's killer.

At seven, Edric goes to squire with Beric Dondarrion, who was betrothed to Ashara's sister Allyria.

A few years later, Edric tries to summon the courage to talk to Eddard at the Hand's tourney.

Eddard gives Dondarrion the leadership of the forces he sends to the Riverlands to take the Mountain.

Dondarrion proves oddly loyal to Eddard's cause, even after his own death.

Edric meets Arya and tells her he shared a wetnurse with Jon.

Dondarrion gives what's left of his life to resurrect Eddard's wife.

To add to your list:

N/edric Dayne is Lord of Starfall and head of House Dayne. This implies that his father is dead - the father that is older brother to Arthur, Ashara, and Allyria. This also implies that his father's parents are dead too, otherwise Daddy Dayne would still be head of the house.

N/edric was born in 287, so his father would have to have died after that time at minimum. There is nothing written of which I'm aware that indicates N/edric knew his father.

Allyria is a mystery, but we know that she was betrothed to Beric in 294, but still not married in late 298 (at Tourney of Hand). If we follow Westerosi standards of betrothal & marriage, she would have been betrothed around age 10 and married after she flowered, so 13-14. Given that she is still not married to Beric by tourney time, I'm putting her age around late 13 or early 14 in late 298 - coincidentally about the same age as Dany.

To recap....to have fathered Allyria, Daddy Dayne was still kicking around 283-284ish. For N/edric to be current Lord of Starfall, both Daddy Dayne and Eldest Dayne Bro would have to have died between N/edric's birth in 287 and 299 when he meets Arya.

N/edric says he was nursed by Wylla because his lady mother had no milk. He notes that Wylla was in the service of the Daynes since before N/edric was born, so there prior to 287.

N/edric says that Wylla nursed Jon and himself. If this is true, and Jon is born around the time of the Sack in 283, then taken to/nursed at Starfall for a time, then it makes sense that there was another child in Starfall between Jon's departure in 284ish? and N/edric's birth in 287 that would have kept the taps flowing, so to speak. Allyria fits into this space [and of course Wylla could have also been farmed out to other unknown Dayne babies or the cadet branch, not disregarding this], dovetailing with my guesstimate of her being born late 284ish and nursed until N/edric's arrival (in my estimation, early 287). Note: The 2 year nursing span fits with the wildling practice but I have no idea if this is common to the rest of Westeros. I would think yes, but this is assumption on my part.

So, make of it what you will, but I find it soopar intriguing that we have a mysterious Dayne daughter 1) conceived suspiciously close to Ned's visit to Starfall to return Dawn, 2) very close in age to a Targaryen daughter, 3) whose father is now out of the picture (and who knows what about her mother), and 4) who has told her younger cousin that Ned Stark and Ashara were in love. But, this younger cousin doesn't mention Ashara having a stillborn child prior to jumping into the sea of a broken heart, and he believes Ned Stark to have instead fathered bastard Jon on the wet nurse that was in service to the Daynes before he was born....the wet nurse who remained at Starfall. o_O

Disclaimer: this could all be total crap, too.

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Wrong. The books say nothing about the ToJ trio following orders. The books say that the first and foremost duty of the KG is to protect the king and die for him if need be.

Wrong. See above.

Wrong. See J.Stargaryen's post.

It's pretty clear that you whole heartedly believe in R+L=J and that no proof will ever convince you otherwise

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So why go through all that exchange if all they had to do was say we are protecting the King, and if coming out with that spoiler would ruin everything [and it would] why insert that passage in the first place?

As a clue for the readers.

Hey - you're the one who's focusing on everyone's onus. And in my view, Hitchens' razor provides good reason to dismiss the entire RLJ theory...

K.

It's pretty clear that you whole heartedly believe in R+L=J and that no proof will ever convince you otherwise

Says the person ignoring mountains of R+L=J evidence.

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Except there is evidence for it. Anyone who denies that the book supports the theories is being willfully contrarian. I'm not saying they have to agree, but the evidence is clearly there. At that point, the onus shifts to the other side to show why that evidence is horseshit.

There is some evidence for it. There is also a glaring lack of evidence for the crucial bits.

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As a clue for the readers.

No doubt, but as I've also said before I am in fact perfectly content with the argument that R+L=J and that the encounter with the three ronin does indeed point to this. Where I depart is in the assertion that it goes further in identifying Jon as the rightful king of Westeros - given an army or two.

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No doubt, but as I've also said before I am in fact perfectly content with the argument that R+L=J and that the encounter with the three ronin does indeed point to this. Where I depart is in the assertion that it goes further in identifying Jon as the rightful king of Westeros - given an army or two.

To be technical about it, I don't think anyone is making the point that Jon is definitively the "rightful king of Westeros" as that gets into the question of whether Robert is a Usurper or legitimately became king by right of conquest (or whether Aerys validly named Viserys as heir or whether Aegon really lived). The issue is whether the KG at ToJ considered Jon to be the rightful King of Westeros. I think the evidence in favor of that inference is quite strong.

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There is some evidence for it. There is also a glaring lack of evidence for the crucial bits.

This is my biggest problem. It requires you to fill in all these gaps yourself, but when you try and do the same thing to disprove it, it gets shot down right away.

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