When did Varys/Illyrio plan the faking of Aegon?

[Mithras]

This thread assumes that Young Griff is not Rhaegar's son but an impostor planted by Varys and Illyrio.

Many people who are believers of fAegon theories assume that the plan to fake rAegon was thought after the Sack of KL; hence fAegon appears younger than rAegon because he could only be delivered after 9 months from rAegon's death or more.

This sounds reasonable at first glance. But with deep consideration, I don’t think this makes sense.

First of all, Varys and Illyrio’s main goal is to claim Westeros for a Blackfyre of their own blood. Assuming that Varys managed to have all the Targaryens wiped out during Robert’s Rebellion, there are still many obstacles for a Blackfyre to claim Westeros in his own name such as:

1. Blackfyre became a sinister name that plagued the Realm with many wars and failed rebellions. Many Great Lords and the common folk alike do not like that name.
   
2. It is equally hard to prove fAegon’s Blackfyre heritage because they are thought to be extinct. Young Griff can well be dubbed as a would-be Blackfye by some people.
   
3. The Westerosi Lords in general cannot be expected to declare for a boy who is a Blackfyre descendant in the female line from several generations back. After all, there are still Baratheons, Martells and other Houses with royal blood from Targaryens or marriage to Houses with Targ blood. There is always the claim by conquest. Why should the Great Lords in general agree with a Blackfyre boy?
   

Therefore, it makes sense to think that Varys and Illyrio never planned to claim Westeros for a king with Blackfyre surname. The moment we reach this conclusion, it becomes clear that replacing a Targaryen with a Blackfyre impostor was always in their minds, even before Varys came to Westeros.

[Lord Varys]

You come to that conclusion by presupposing that Varys and Illyrio's goal was always to seat a Blackfyre on the Iron Throne. This has yet to be proven yet, and thus we cannot use that presupposition to decide (or prove) when they came up with the Aegon plan (if we go with Aegon as Illyrio's son).

[Fae Boleyn]

Also, Blue Aegon can't be obviously younger than the real Aegon if he's a fake; I've seen people use Tyrion's age guess as a sign he's fake (I think the opposite) but he has to be wrong. Blue Aegon can't be sixteen if Aegon should be eighteen - don't you think JonCon would notice? Age gaps are more obvious with children - nine months might be doable, but not the two years the book suggests. Wishful thinking can only take one so far and JonCon isn't stupid.

(I actually think the age discrepancy is a sign Blue Aegon might be real; the other boy Tyrion is two years off about is Jon Snow, almost certainly half brother to a real Aegon. Could be a shared trait from Rhaegar, looking young.)

[Suzanna Stormborn]

OP,

Yeah I agree. They never planned on using the name Blackfyre again. Which is why Illyrio states that he does not care about house names or sigils. Blood and 'debts of affection' are all that matters to him.

And if blood is so important then fAegon fits the bill. He is not the son of Rhaegar but he does have the blood of Dameon Blackfyre and King Aegon IV. So in Illyrio and Varys' minds he is just as worthy as any Targaryen.

If fAegon is in fact the trueborn son of Illyrio then no one has to 'prove' anything. If Illyrio is the grandson of Maelys, he is aware of it. That is all the proof anyone would need that fAegon is a legit Blackfyre descendant.

I agree the lords nor commoners of Westeros will follow or bend the knee to a Blackfyre, the name just has too much negative taint at this point. I would not doubt that at some point the thought crossed Illyrio's mind to start another Blackfyre rebellion. But then rAegon was killed which is either a lucky coincidence or also planned, as all they would need is a Valyrian decent boy to play the mummer and stand in for the dead heir. I do admit there was some luck but it is also very obvious that Illyrio and Varys have changed their plan many many times to accommodate everything that has gone down globally. And at this point we don't have very much privileged information from their private conversations. But we can be sure that both men are smart, cunning, able, good with money, influential in Essos and Westeros, etc etc. I have no doubt that the two of them could handle or manipulate any situation they wanted against anyone save LIttlefinger maybe.

[Mithras]

You come to that conclusion by presupposing that Varys and Illyrio's goal was always to seat a Blackfyre on the Iron Throne. This has yet to be proven yet, and thus we cannot use that presupposition to decide (or prove) when they came up with the Aegon plan (if we go with Aegon as Illyrio's son).

Yes, the bolded ones are my assumptions as well. But you can admit that they are not bad assumptions. I don't think Varys and Illyrio can be involved in such a conspiracy if the reason was not blood. They are not pursuing to gain more gold or put a random kid to the IT just because they can do it.

My basic premise is that there was always a plan to switch a Targaryen with a Blackfyre. Fanning the fires of a civil was was basically for this purpose (i.e. to create a chance to implant an impostor). Varys was always looking for a scenario to make rAegon officially sent to somewhere or go missing so that they could replace him.

[Lord Lannister]

Until we get inside one of their heads via a POV, all we have to go by is what they say. Which on the 1-10 honesty scale I'd given them both a zero. The only hint we have towards the Blackfyre theory is Ilyrio's comments about dragons, red or black, and the Golden Company seems to be at their beck and call, which could be explained away by gold among other things.

[sarah.jenice]

Fanning the fires of a civil was was basically for this purpose (i.e. to create a chance to implant an impostor). Varys was always looking for a scenario to make rAegon officially sent to somewhere or go missing so that they could replace him.

Varys is the one who warned Aerys not to open the gates to the Lannister army. If he was hoping for something bad to befall the real Aegon, what better chance than letting an army with unclear loyalties get close to him during a rebellion.

IMHO, Varys and Illyrio probabl realized the opportunity to replace Aegon after he was dead. If Young Griff is really Illyrio's son, then they had plenty of time to work out a plan since fAegon was already in their posession.

[Julia Martell]

Varys is the one who warned Aerys not to open the gates to the Lannister army. If he was hoping for something bad to befall the real Aegon, what better chance than letting an army with unclear loyalties get close to him during a rebellion.

IMHO, Varys and Illyrio probabl realized the opportunity to replace Aegon after he was dead. If Young Griff is really Illyrio's son, then they had plenty of time to work out a plan since fAegon was already in their posession.

It’s quite a coincidence that he happened to have a son about the same age.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

it was always the plan

Westeros knows of the end of the male line of house blackfyre.

A blackfyre through female line would have less claim than Lord Tarth.

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

Why would you put an imposter on the IT ? Or why would you raise your son to believe he is a Targaryen ?

BLACK OR RED A DRAGON IS A DRAGON

[Bael's Bastard]

Probably after the real one's head was smashed in.