The "proofs" of LF/Tyrell cooperation

[Mithras]

do not exist. I mean like a real proof.

There was manipulation, not cooperation. Tyrells didn’t know that they were being manipulated by LF up to and including the Purple Wedding.

How is that?

LF looks like a cheerful, helpful fellow with no armies to be considered as a threat. We cannot expect Tyrells to develop a plot to kill a king during his wedding in cooperation with a guy like LF. The Tyrells are overlords of the Reach, LF is nothing compared to them. If LF betrays them, Tyrells lose everything. The disguise of LF immediately breaks down once he drops it and joins the Tyrells in the kingslaying plot. From that moment on, LF would expose his untrustworthy and scheming nature to the Tyrells.

Olenna could easily think like this: Ok, by plotting the murder of the king at his wedding, I am risking all my family to be Castamered if anything goes wrong. Did I mention that only recently I realized that this cheerful guy was actually an upjumped schemer of the dangerous kind? Might this be a Lannister ploy to depose of Tyrells and give the Highgarden to one of those Houses who never stop bickering about it and secure the Reach in the process? How could we expect to keep our bannermen intact if we are exposed as the breakers of guest right and kingslayers at the same time?

LF started manipulating the Tyrells indirectly. When they asked him about Joff during the negotiations to wed Marg to Joff, LF praised Joff to the skies. However, his servants spread the disgusting details of Joff's monstrosities. LF left it to the Tyrells to figure out that Marg could be the queen but they did not have to proceed with Joff.

A careful reread of LF/Sansa dialogue after the Purple Wedding reveals that LF did not really tell Sansa anything. He allowed Sansa to think and reach some conclusions. The only factual thing he said about the PW was how Olenna took the crystal out of Sansa’s hairnet. He did not explain exactly how Olenna knew that and why she did that.

The reason why LF basically did not tell Sansa about the specifics of the PW plot might be that he did not know them. He was not present at the PW. There was not enough time for his spies (Kettleblacks) to report to him.

The plan is too simple and stupid to look like cooperation. Take the crystal and slip it into Joff’s wine. That is all. Even trained monkeys can do that. The Tyrells do not seem to have an agency here.

LF thought that

· He made it plain enough for the Tyrells to despise Joff.

· He made it plain enough for the Tyrells to understand that they did not need Joff.

· He most probably informed the Tyrells about a certain crystal in Sansa’s hairnet.

· He made it plain enough for everyone to witness the antagonism between Tyrion and Joff with the help of extra drama he arranged.

He also knew that Tyrells would not want to miss the chance of marrying Sansa to Willas again if she miraculously becomes a widow.

Now, with this perspective, it does not require a great genius to take the poison, kill Joff, frame the already-looking-half-guilty Tyrion and grab Sansa quickly. LF would certainly expect Olenna to carry out this reasoning. That is what he would do if he was Olenna.

However, these are all conclusions LF reached according to his assumptions. None of them have to happen as he assumed.

[aryagonnakill#2]

So are you basically saying that LF proposed everything and the Tyrells took the offer and that, that is not cooperation?

You say LF said just take the crystal and put it in the wine, but its not like they wouldn't know what was going to happen.

IMO just because 1 party has the idea, does not mean something is not cooperation, LF still put his faith in the Tyrells to not rat him out just to try and get a Tyrell loyalist in the small council.

There are levels of working together, I don't think either side is under the impression that they are in a permanent partnership, just a 1 time thing.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Spot on.

There is no way the Tyrells would partner with LF. And less that he'd be alive afterwards.

But there is a good chance that they'd pick up the breadcrumbs he intentionally left for them.

[hardhome]

This assumes all the Tyrells were active participants, but that is not necessarily the case. LF probably only negotiated this part of the deal with one (probably QoT)

She could have dropped the poison herself or had a surrogate do it for her, but that would only make three people fully aware of the plot to improve kill Jeoffry. Maybe four if Dontos was fully kept in the loop, which I doubt.

[Blackfish Tully]

Spot on.

There is no way the Tyrells would partner with LF. And less that he'd be alive afterwards.

But there is a good chance that they'd pick up the breadcrumbs he intentionally left for them.

I agree with this 100% . Just as there is no way the Tyrells would partner with Littlefinger, there is no way Littlefinger would actively be involved in a plot like this . Littlefinger is all about keeping his hands clean so he would try to influence events but he would not be an active participation in something as dangerous as killing a KIng.

[Mithras]

So are you basically saying that LF proposed everything and the Tyrells took the offer and that, that is not cooperation?

You say LF said just take the crystal and put it in the wine, but its not like they wouldn't know what was going to happen.

IMO just because 1 party has the idea, does not mean something is not cooperation, LF still put his faith in the Tyrells to not rat him out just to try and get a Tyrell loyalist in the small council.

There are levels of working together, I don't think either side is under the impression that they are in a permanent partnership, just a 1 time thing.

As BBE said, I think LF dropped breadcrumbs in an obvious manner and the Tyrells picked them up (or so LF thinks). Tyrells didnot know that those breadcrumbs were dropped by someone.

This assumes all the Tyrells were active participants, but that is not necessarily the case. LF probably only negotiated this part of the deal with one (probably QoT)

She could have dropped the poison herself or had a surrogate do it for her, but that would only make three people fully aware of the plot to improve kill Jeoffry. Maybe four if Dontos was fully kept in the loop, which I doubt.

Does not matter if it was only Olenna or not. If she was exposed, many Tyrells would follow her to the grave and the Tyrells would say goodbye to Highgarden.

I agree with this 100% . Just as there is no way the Tyrells would partner with Littlefinger, there is no way Littlefinger would actively be involved in a plot like this . Littlefinger is all about keeping his hands clean so he would try to influence events but he would not be an active participation in something as dangerous as killing a KIng.

:agree:

[voodooqueen126]

This raises the question of how he successfully left the breadcrumb of "Powerless little Lady Sansa has the strangler in her hairnet"?

but I agree with everything else here, the Tyrells don't know enough about LF role to blame him, thus if everything goes pear shaped for the Tyrells, they can't spill things about LF role in poisoning Joffrey if they (Margaery or Olenna) are ever put to the question.

[Chaircat Meow]

I agree with this. I am, however, slightly confused about the crystal. Didn't Olenna give Sansa that? So why would LF need to mention it?

It is also interesting that the analysis supposes the Tyrell position is actually rather weak within the Reach, even though they bring the most men to Joff's cause. That makes sense of quite a lot of Tyrell moves of course, and is likely true.

[Mithras]

This raises the question of how he successfully left the breadcrumb of "Powerless little Lady Sansa has the strangler in her hairnet"?

Sansa was depressed during the wedding and Olenna tried to comfort her. Maybe the Tyrells were fed with a false intel that Sansa had been planning to commit suicide or worse, to kill Joffrey. Either way, taking the crystal was the first thing they should have done.

I am sure that the Tyrells were eventually going to kill Joff but they should have at least waited for the bedding if not for having Margaery pregnant with the heir to the IT. Even if Joff failed in the bedding, they could always have pulled out a Cersei and prodcued their own heir. This is the ultimate power. I don't think Tyrells were fool enough to miss that. Besides, Joff didnot show any cruelty towards Margaery. He was annoyed with Sansa (understandable) and Tyrion (an enemy to the Tyrells by marrying Sansa). And Joffrey was very young and even Tywin believed that he was still malleable enough to become a decent king.

[The Ned's Little Girl]

I am sure that the Tyrells were eventually going to kill Joff but they should have at least waited for the bedding if not for having Margaery pregnant with the heir to the IT.

They might have allowed Joffrey to live a bit longer in order to beget an heir had Tommen not been available as an immediate replacement. However, since Tommen was right there, it was in the interest of the Tyrells to dispose of Joffrey immediately - both to ensure Margaery's "virginity" to make a quick marriage to Tommen easier and to eliminate the possibility that Joffrey might mistreat Margaery in the interim.

[Lord Fauntleroy]

This all makes sense except for Olenna knowing the hairnet is poisoned. How would she know that?

Maybe: Petyr has some more spies connected to the Tyrells inner circle suggest to Olenna that giving Dontos a gift for Sansa will definitely get to her, since Dontos is in love with her. Dontos gets the net, and knows from Littlefinger's orders to give anything from Olenna to Sansa without knowing what it really is?

[Erza Whitewalker]

Sansa was depressed during the wedding and Olenna tried to comfort her. Maybe the Tyrells were fed with a false intel that Sansa had been planning to commit suicide or worse, to kill Joffrey. Either way, taking the crystal was the first thing they should have done.

I don't think there was just one crystal in the hairnet. How would Olenna know just which one to take? If Sansa were supposedly trying to commit suicide, she's still got multiple poison pellets.

The Ghost of High Heart mentioned a maid with purple vipers (plural) in her hair

.LF had Dontos give the hairnet to Sansa at the end of ACOK, after the Blackwater, after he had completed his mission to secure the Tyrell alliance, and Dontos said the plan to get Sansa out of KL would take place the night of Joff's wedding. Sounds like a well-planned conspiracy to me.

[Mithras]

This all makes sense except for Olenna knowing the hairnet is poisoned. How would she know that?

Maybe: Petyr has some more spies connected to the Tyrells inner circle suggest to Olenna that giving Dontos a gift for Sansa will definitely get to her, since Dontos is in love with her. Dontos gets the net, and knows from Littlefinger's orders to give anything from Olenna to Sansa without knowing what it really is?

I don't think there was just one crystal in the hairnet. How would Olenna know just which one to take? If Sansa were supposedly trying to commit suicide, she's still got multiple poison pellets.

The Ghost of High Heart mentioned a maid with purple vipers (plural) in her hair

.LF had Dontos give the hairnet to Sansa at the end of ACOK, after the Blackwater, after he had completed his mission to secure the Tyrell alliance, and Dontos said the plan to get Sansa out of KL would take place the night of Joff's wedding. Sounds like a well-planned conspiracy to me.

LF made sure that the Tyrells know which crystal to take. I think fed this information through Dontos/Moonboy.

They might have allowed Joffrey to live a bit longer in order to beget an heir had Tommen not been available as an immediate replacement. However, since Tommen was right there, it was in the interest of the Tyrells to dispose of Joffrey immediately - both to ensure Margaery's "virginity" to make a quick marriage to Tommen easier and to eliminate the possibility that Joffrey might mistreat Margaery in the interim.

With Loras as Marg's protector, I don't think there was a threat to Marg, at least not so soon. Tommen will not be available for several years to produce an heir. If the Tyrells got an heir, the prize was all but won. Cersei could no longer be in power. Tyrells rued the regency of Cersei.

[Erza Whitewalker]

LF made sure that the Tyrells know which crystal to take. I think fed this information through Dontos/Moonboy.

With Loras as Marg's protector, I don't think there was a threat to Marg, at least not so soon. Tommen will not be available for several years to produce an heir. If the Tyrells got an heir, the prize was all but won. Cersei could no longer be in power. Tyrells rued the regency of Cersei.

You didn't respond to the rest of my reply. It makes zero sense to me that the hairnet contained just one strangler pellet and that tiny Olenna knew what to look for when Sansa never noticed anything but the fact that one stone was missing after the wedding. (What if Sansa had applied this single-poison hairnet so that this one pellet was located somewhere inconvenient? "Sansa, you've got a few hairs sticking up on the top of your head even though I can't see the top of your head!") You didn't address the hairnet plan starting immediately after the arrival of the Tyrells and LF, and that the escape was always intended for Joff's wedding day.

We aren't privy to a POV to know the absolute truth of what went on between the Tyrells and LF but the details make sense for me for there to have been an actual conspiracy. Book Margaery was likely in on it as she never drank from the wedding chalice after the poison was dropped, and one of her brothers could have done the actual pellet drop. (the chalice was 3 feet high and on a table-top as well.)

[Mithras]

You didn't respond to the rest of my reply. It makes zero sense to me that the hairnet contained just one strangler pellet and that tiny Olenna knew what to look for when Sansa never noticed anything but the fact that one stone was missing after the wedding. (What if Sansa had applied this single-poison hairnet so that this one pellet was located somewhere inconvenient? "Sansa, you've got a few hairs sticking up on the top of your head even though I can't see the top of your head!") You didn't address the hairnet plan starting immediately after the arrival of the Tyrells and LF, and that the escape was always intended for Joff's wedding day.

We aren't privy to a POV to know the absolute truth of what went on between the Tyrells and LF but the details make sense for me for there to have been an actual conspiracy. Book Margaery was likely in on it as she never drank from the wedding chalice after the poison was dropped, and one of her brothers could have done the actual pellet drop. (the chalice was 3 feet high and on a table-top as well.)

Strangler is a rare and extremely expensive poison. It would be meaningless to place so many poison crystals to the hairnet. The rest of the poisoned crystals would only point the guilty. The crystal must have been placed somewhere where it is easy to take it out.

[aryagonnakill#2]

^ But a hairnet is a circle, Sansa could have put it on any way, and Olenna couldn't be seen fooling around with it any more than was absolutely necessary.

Edit: And given how closely Sansa looked at the hairnet she would have noticed if 1 of the "gems/beads" was different than the others.

[In A Coat of Gold]

This is a really interesting point. The Tyrells have everything to lose by allying with a known(although not really) Lannister flunky.

'Clean hands, Sansa. Whatever you do, make certain your hands are clean.

There's a really good chance that absolutely nothing leads back to LF and points squarely at the Tyrells.

[Erza Whitewalker]

Exactly what I've been trying to say aryagonnakill#2. I doubt Mithras has ever worn a hairnet.