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R+L=J v.119


Jon Weirgaryen

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But how does that change the fact that he said Jon is 8-9 months older? He's saying he's not going to detail everything down to months and days, but he's not talking about Jon. Jon he did give a specific timeline. He's saying everything else that he finally gets around too will not be so detailed.

I think the 'problem' here is more likely to be the '1 year' siege, or the timing at the start of it. We have plenty of other evidence that fits Jon's birth datejust right.

So if I'm understanding this correctly, you're telling us to either ignore what GRRM says, or to twist it, so that it can fit R+L=J with Jon being born at the TOJ, instead of accepting GRRM's stated timeline, which fits with what he's written, in that Jon is Ned's son.

Okay, gotcha.

Actually its just the opposite. The person claiming the 8-9 months is a deception on GRRMs part is a regular crackpot - seriously, proposing really out there ideas and arguing them vigourously (but not rigourously, IMO), not a 'regular' R+L=J adherent.

Twinslayer made a real point. We now have some competing dating information.

I think though that the emphasis was immediately placed in the wrong area. We know that the Battle of the Bells was several months (3-4 usually estimated) into the war already. Ned has to get home, banners have to be called, internal battles fought, armies marched south etc etc all before BoBs. We know that the war lasted 'about a year' and dates from Jon Arryn calling his banners. Everything else so far tallies with those numbers. Now this information says the siege didn't start till after the BoB, but still went for 12 months but that doesn't fit independent of Jon.

Most likely, the year long seige time is a slight exaggeration. Remember, it was a significant Baratheon feat, and tWoIaF is written sucking up to the Baratheon ruling family (and its Lannnister allies).

Everything actually still fits within some wiggle room.

The war is about a year long.

BoBs is 3 month in.

Robb is conceived by month 3-4.

Jon is conceived roughly the same time, perhaps slightly after.

Sack of KL is month 12ish.

Ned rides to SE (1-4 weeks after sack) and relives the siege (9-10 months long siege, more or less )

Ned finds Lyanna (and Jon) at ToJ around 2-6 weeks after Sack, so around month 13 birth for Jon

War lasts 'about a year'.

Robb and Jon are 'of an age' but Jon maybe slightly younger as per Catelyn's belief.

Seige of SE was a bit less than 12 months, but close enough for a bit of brown-nosed stretching.

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A celestial body that appears to have a trajectory aimed towards the ground would most likely spell doom for every one of our characters, and not because of the conflict that would crop up when you have Jon Snow, Ned Stark, and Khal Drogo all sharing one head space. That sounds like a hilarious sitcom, though. So, yeah, I do hope that happens. Good idea!

I have no idea what you are talking about... But it is nothing that I have suggested

It's always interesting how I will type one thing, but people read something altogether different...

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Who says the realm will care?

Also true.

The world book raises an interesting timeline issue.

Robb and Jon are "of an age."

Robb was conceived on Cat & Ned's wedding night.

According to the world book, Cat & Ned were married right after the Battle of the Bells.

Also according to the world book, the siege of Storm's End started right after the Battle of the Bells.

This suggests that Robb and Jon were born around 9-10 months after the Battle of the Bells.

According to an SSM, Jon was born 8-9 months before Dany, and according to AGOT, Dany was born 9 moons after Rhaella's flight from Dragonstone. The flight would be 2 weeks before the Sack of King's Landing, meaning that Jon and Robb were born between about 2 weeks before and 2 weeks after the Sack.

This also means Jon and Robb were born 9 1/2 to 10 1/2 months after the start of the siege of Storm's End. If Ned lifted the siege of Storm's End 12 months after the siege started, that means he lifted it somewhere between 1.5 to 2.5 months after Jon's birth.

We know Ned went to Storm's End before he went to the tower of joy. That means he got to the tower of joy more than 1.5 months after Jon was born, and possibly as much as 3 months after Jon was born. That makes it hard to believe that Lyanna died from complications related to Jon's birth.

Either that, or, more likely, the old SSM stating that Jon was born 8-9 months before Dany was perhaps an off-handed error by GRRM.

Non of this. The World Book only specifies that after Roberts loss at Ashford, the Stormlands were open for Mace Tyrell to lay siege. Yes, this is mentioned after we hear the tale about the Battle of the Bells, but so is the battle at Ashford itself, which we know took place before the Battle of the Bells.

This is a history book, but that doesn't mean that we hear everything in exactly the correct chronological order. We learn about the Red Keep being finished a fee paged before we learn about the death of Lord Harroway... Harroway wad stated to have ruled the realm while Maegor oversaw the RK, yet we know that the Red Keep was done in 45 AC, Harroway died in 44AC..

We learn of Rhaella's many miscarriages and stillbirths, ending in 273, and then jump back to 266, for the birth of Cersei and Jaime..

The paragraph about the siege is simply telling us about all that went well during the war for the rolists. The passage itself says nothing about an order of events..

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Also true.

Non of this. The World Book only specifies that after Roberts loss at Ashford, the Stormlands were open for Mace Tyrell to lay siege. Yes, this is mentioned after we hear the tale about the Battle of the Bells, but so is the battle at Ashford itself, which we know took place before the Battle of the Bells.

This is a history book, but that doesn't mean that we hear everything in exactly the correct chronological order. We learn about the Red Keep being finished a fee paged before we learn about the death of Lord Harroway... Harroway wad stated to have ruled the realm while Maegor oversaw the RK, yet we know that the Red Keep was done in 45 AC, Harroway died in 44AC..

We learn of Rhaella's many miscarriages and stillbirths, ending in 273, and then jump back to 266, for the birth of Cersei and Jaime..

The paragraph about the siege is simply telling us about all that went well during the war for the rolists. The passage itself says nothing about an order of events..

Except Mace Tyrell was at Ashford, and then Jon Connington took control of the forces for the Battle of the Bells. So Mace has to lay siege after Ashford. He can't be laying siege, then go fight a battle, then come back. And all of the sources say he laid siege for a year. Not just the World Book.

So I'm not sure what you're trying to argue. The further back you start the siege of Storm's End, the less possible Jon can be born at the TOJ. You should be wanting to start the siege as soon as possible.

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Except Mace Tyrell was at Ashford, and then Jon Connington took control of the forces for the Battle of the Bells. So Mace has to lay siege after Ashford. He can't be laying siege, then go fight a battle, then come back. And all of the sources say he laid siege for a year. Not just the World Book.

So I'm not sure what you're trying to argue. The further back you start the siege of Storm's End, the less possible Jon can be born at the TOJ. You should be wanting to start the siege as soon as possible.

Where did I say that Mace went to lay siege, fought at Ashford, and then returned to SE?

The timeline looks clear to me:

- Robert leaves SE for Ashford, meets the army of Tarly, is defeated, flees.. Mace arrives after the battle has been done, and continues on to SE to lay siege (as he already had his army present and such)

- Connington is named Hand, starts the chase for Robert, which will eventually lead to the Battle of the Bells. The Siege, by the time of said battle, probably had already been going on for a few weeks.

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Where did I say that Mace went to lay siege, fought at Ashford, and then returned to SE?

The timeline looks clear to me:

- Robert leaves SE for Ashford, meets the army of Tarly, is defeated, flees.. Mace arrives after the battle has been done, and continues on to SE to lay siege (as he already had his army present and such)

- Connington is named Hand, starts the chase for Robert, which will eventually lead to the Battle of the Bells. The Siege, by the time of said battle, probably had already been going on for a few weeks.

That's just the impression I got, that you were saying there was confusion over the order of the battles

And no, you can't say that the siege was already under way for weeks by the time that BoB took place.In fact, the opposite is far more likely. Look at a map of Westoros, Stoney Sept and Storm's end are about the same distance from Ashford, except to get to Storm's End you either need to go through the mountains, or go around them. So the siege of Storm's End should actually take place after the BoB, especially considering Robert and Connington were racing to Stoney Sept, while Mace wasn't chasing anybody.

So the Siege of Storm's End begins after the Battle of the Bells, not before.

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Except Mace Tyrell was at Ashford, and then Jon Connington took control of the forces for the Battle of the Bells. So Mace has to lay siege after Ashford. He can't be laying siege, then go fight a battle, then come back. And all of the sources say he laid siege for a year. Not just the World Book.

BoB and Ashford are different forces.

What are the sources that say a year again?

So I'm not sure what you're trying to argue. The further back you start the siege of Storm's End, the less possible Jon can be born at the TOJ. You should be wanting to start the siege as soon as possible.

Jon's conception is independent of the siege though. So how is it actually relevant to his birth again?

Don't forget that although Jon and Robb are 'of an age', Jon is thought to be younger by Catelyn and could be anywhere from a few weeks older to a month or two younger. 'Of an age' is an approximation, not meaning that they are exactly the same age.

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That's just the impression I got, that you were saying there was confusion over the order of the battles

And no, you can't say that the siege was already under way for weeks by the time that BoB took place.In fact, the opposite is far more likely. Look at a map of Westoros, Stoney Sept and Storm's end are about the same distance from Ashford, except to get to Storm's End you either need to go through the mountains, or go around them. So the siege of Storm's End should actually take place after the BoB, especially considering Robert and Connington were racing to Stoney Sept, while Mace wasn't chasing anybody.

So the Siege of Storm's End begins after the Battle of the Bells, not before.

Err...

War is declared. Robert acts quickly as he is famous for, and fights early internal battles (Summerhall) against Stormlords. He then marches SE to face of the forces of the Reach and Tarly beats him at Ashford, but not decisively. From there, Robert moves north to try and join up with his allies, leaving Stannis to hold his base at SE. Mace Tyrell, with Tarly, move to SE and lay siege. Its still in the early weeks and months of the war - all of this is over a relatively small area.

Connington takes another army into the Riverlands area in pursuit of Robert. We don't know how long they maneuver around, but its long enough for Ned to get home through the Fingers etc, the Stark army to complete mobilizing and then travel all the way south to the Riverlands, and meanwhile the Tyrells are unopposed marching to SE and laying siege.

Eventually Connington corners Robert at Stoney Sept, the BotB starts and the northern and vale armies come to Robert's rescue and Connington is defeated.

Then the double wedding and the Riverlanders join the rebels.

Not quite sure how you get from that the BotBs should be before the siege starts. The Tyrells have a short easy road with no opposition from Ashford to Storms End. Connington and Robert however are free to maneuver around as long as it takes before BotBs. There really isn't much limit on that time - several months of armies manouvering would not be unreasonable. The true limiting factor is how long it takes Ned to get home, raise his banners, and march his army all the way from the north to Stoney Sept.

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BoB and Ashford are different forces.

What are the sources that say a year again?

Jon's conception is independent of the siege though. So how is it actually relevant to his birth again?

Don't forget that although Jon and Robb are 'of an age', Jon is thought to be younger by Catelyn and could be anywhere from a few weeks older to a month or two younger. 'Of an age' is an approximation, not meaning that they are exactly the same age.

I know they're different forces. That was my point. Tyrell leaves after Ashford.

As for sources, Maester Cressen in the prologue for ACOK says that the Stannis held Storm's End for close to a year, Ned says Stannis held the castle for a year in Eddard VI of AGOT, and I'm sure Davos and Stannis have commented on it. But Maester Cressen and Ned both say the siege lasted a year or near enough.

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Err...

War is declared. Robert acts quickly as he is famous for, and fights early internal battles (Summerhall) against Stormlords. He then marches SE to face of the forces of the Reach and Tarly beats him at Ashford, but not decisively. From there, Robert moves north to try and join up with his allies, leaving Stannis to hold his base at SE. Mace Tyrell, with Tarly, move to SE and lay siege. Its still in the early weeks and months of the war - all of this is over a relatively small area.

Connington takes another army into the Riverlands area in pursuit of Robert. We don't know how long they maneuver around, but its long enough for Ned to get home through the Fingers etc, the Stark army to complete mobilizing and then travel all the way south to the Riverlands, and meanwhile the Tyrells are unopposed marching to SE and laying siege.

Eventually Connington corners Robert at Stoney Sept, the BotB starts and the northern and vale armies come to Robert's rescue and Connington is defeated.

Then the double wedding and the Riverlanders join the rebels.

Not quite sure how you get from that the BotBs should be before the siege starts. The Tyrells have a short easy road with no opposition from Ashford to Storms End. Connington and Robert however are free to maneuver around as long as it takes before BotBs. There really isn't much limit on that time - several months of armies manouvering would not be unreasonable. The true limiting factor is how long it takes Ned to get home, raise his banners, and march his army all the way from the north to Stoney Sept.

Because the distance from Ashford to Stoney Sept, is the same distance as Ashford to Storm's End. And Robert is famous for forced marches and was fleeing from defeat to join up with Ned and Jon's forces up north, while Mace is famous for sitting on his ass and wasn't chasing or fleeing anybody, and either had to take his army over the mountains, or around them. So the obvious conclusion, is that Robert got to Stoney Sept before Mace could get to Storm's End, and therefore the Battle of the Bells, must come before the Siege of Storm's End.

It's simple logic.

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I think the 'problem' here is more likely to be the '1 year' siege, or the timing at the start of it. We have plenty of other evidence that fits Jon's birth datejust right.

Actually its just the opposite. The person claiming the 8-9 months is a deception on GRRMs part is a regular crackpot - seriously, proposing really out there ideas and arguing them vigourously (but not rigourously, IMO), not a 'regular' R+L=J adherent.

Twinslayer made a real point. We now have some competing dating information.

I think though that the emphasis was immediately placed in the wrong area. We know that the Battle of the Bells was several months (3-4 usually estimated) into the war already. Ned has to get home, banners have to be called, internal battles fought, armies marched south etc etc all before BoBs. We know that the war lasted 'about a year' and dates from Jon Arryn calling his banners. Everything else so far tallies with those numbers. Now this information says the siege didn't start till after the BoB, but still went for 12 months but that doesn't fit independent of Jon.

Most likely, the year long seige time is a slight exaggeration. Remember, it was a significant Baratheon feat, and tWoIaF is written sucking up to the Baratheon ruling family (and its Lannnister allies).

Everything actually still fits within some wiggle room.

The war is about a year long.

BoBs is 3 month in.

Robb is conceived by month 3-4.

Jon is conceived roughly the same time, perhaps slightly after.

Sack of KL is month 12ish.

Ned rides to SE (1-4 weeks after sack) and relives the siege (9-10 months long siege, more or less )

Ned finds Lyanna (and Jon) at ToJ around 2-6 weeks after Sack, so around month 13 birth for Jon

War lasts 'about a year'.

Robb and Jon are 'of an age' but Jon maybe slightly younger as per Catelyn's belief.

Seige of SE was a bit less than 12 months, but close enough for a bit of brown-nosed stretching.

On the legnth of the siege of Storm's End, we have this from Stannis (spoilers for TWOW):

"I defeated your uncle Victarion and his Iron Fleet off Fair Isle, the first time your father crowned himself. I held Storm's End against the power of the Reach for a year, and took Dragonstone from the Targaryens. I smashed Mance Rayder at the Wall, though he had twenty times my numbers. Tell me, turncloak, what battles has the Bastard of Bolton ever won that I should fear him?"

I think the world book is pretty clear that the siege started after the Battle of the Bells. It describes the Battle of the Bells and the other early battles, says that the Kingsguard was dispatched to recover the remnants of Connigton's forces, says that Rhaegar returned from the South, and then it describes the Battle of Ashford. Then: "And after a partial victory at Ashford, which led to Robert's withdrawal, the Stormlands were left open to Lord Tyrell." Then we get the start of the siege of Storm's End.

Which raises another issue with the timeline. If Rhaegar got back to King's Landing a year before the Sack, when did he impregnate Lyanna? Did she come back to King's Landing with him? Or did he go visit her in Dorne after he "took command of the new levies being raised in the crownlands"?

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On the legnth of the siege of Storm's End, we have this from Stannis (spoilers for TWOW):

"I defeated your uncle Victarion and his Iron Fleet off Fair Isle, the first time your father crowned himself. I held Storm's End against the power of the Reach for a year, and took Dragonstone from the Targaryens. I smashed Mance Rayder at the Wall, though he had twenty times my numbers. Tell me, turncloak, what battles has the Bastard of Bolton ever won that I should fear him?"

I think the world book is pretty clear that the siege started after the Battle of the Bells. It describes the Battle of the Bells and the other early battles, says that the Kingsguard was dispatched to recover the remnants of Connigton's forces, says that Rhaegar returned from the South, and then it describes the Battle of Ashford. Then: "And after a partial victory at Ashford, which led to Robert's withdrawal, the Stormlands were left open to Lord Tyrell." Then we get the start of the siege of Storm's End.

Which raises another issue with the timeline. If Rhaegar got back to King's Landing a year before the Sack, when did he impregnate Lyanna? Did she come back to King's Landing with him? Or did he go visit her in Dorne after he "took command of the new levies being raised in the crownlands"?

Ned and Maester Cressen also both say that the siege lasted a year. So we've got at least 3 people saying a year, plus the World Book. I'm also fairly sure that Renly, Donal Noye, and Davos have probably commented on it.

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On the legnth of the siege of Storm's End, we have this from Stannis (spoilers for TWOW):

"

I defeated your uncle Victarion and his Iron Fleet off Fair Isle, the first time your father crowned himself. I held Storm's End against the power of the Reach for a year, and took Dragonstone from the Targaryens. I smashed Mance Rayder at the Wall, though he had twenty times my numbers. Tell me, turncloak, what battles has the Bastard of Bolton ever won that I should fear him?"

Right, so 'for a year' as a general description when recounting triumphs, and could easily be 10.5-13 months then...

I think the world book is pretty clear that the siege started after the Battle of the Bells. It describes the Battle of the Bells and the other early battles, says that the Kingsguard was dispatched to recover the remnants of Connigton's forces, says that Rhaegar returned from the South, and then it describes the Battle of Ashford. Then: "And after a partial victory at Ashford, which led to Robert's withdrawal, the Stormlands were left open to Lord Tyrell." Then we get the start of the siege of Storm's End.

Err, Ashford comes before Battle of the Bells. Its early on before the rebels have joined up.

Clearly the world book simply isn't operating in complete chronological order for one reason for another, making your entire point moot.

Which raises another issue with the timeline. If Rhaegar got back to King's Landing a year before the Sack, when did he impregnate Lyanna? Did she come back to King's Landing with him? Or did he go visit her in Dorne after he "took command of the new levies being raised in the crownlands"?

What?

When did Rhaegar enter this. Where did him returning to KL a year before the sack (the war lasted about a year remember!) come from?

He wasn't 'recalled' until after the Battle of the Bells remember, and we have no idea how long it took Hightower to find him and for him to get back and take command. 1 month? 2? 6? 8? we don't really have any further clues.

Because the distance from Ashford to Stoney Sept, is the same distance as Ashford to Storm's End. And Robert is famous for forced marches and was fleeing from defeat to join up with Ned and Jon's forces up north, while Mace is famous for sitting on his ass and wasn't chasing or fleeing anybody, and either had to take his army over the mountains, or around them. So the obvious conclusion, is that Robert got to Stoney Sept before Mace could get to Storm's End, and therefore the Battle of the Bells, must come before the Siege of Storm's End.

It's simple logic.

Simplistic, but not logical.

Its not all about pure map distance.

Ashford to Storms End is unopposed, a simple march by a single army.

Ashford to Stoney Sept includes two opposing forces maneuvering. We don't know how long for, or over what ground. They could literally march for months and end up in the same place they started. Your 'logic' would put 1st Manassass and 2nd Manassass on the same day because they are on the same spot (assuming they are, I'm not an ACW expert).

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Ned and Maester Cressen also both say that the siege lasted a year. So we've got at least 3 people saying a year, plus the World Book. I'm also fairly sure that Renly, Donal Noye, and Davos have probably commented on it.

Yep, it all works though, its just Twinslayer throwing out another of his gross misreadings and moving Ashford to after Battle of the Bells.

Ashford is very early on, maybe a month or so into the war. Then Mace marches unopposed to Stormlands and starts the siege, in a matter of days or weeks. Ned relieves the siege a few weeks or a month or so after the Sack, so the seige lasted for about a year - maybe slightly less but close enough for people to call it a year long siege.

Battle of the Bells is clearly after that, and probably a couple of months or more after. the rebels unit, Ned gets married and father Robb.

Everything works as it did before Twinslayer insisted that the world book can only be chronological, despite us already knowing that Ashford was well before Battle of the Bells, an early fight by Robert before the rebels linked up.

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Yep, it all works though, its just Twinslayer throwing out another of his gross misreadings and moving Ashford to after Battle of the Bells.

Ashford is very early on, maybe a month or so into the war. Then Mace marches unopposed to Stormlands and starts the siege, in a matter of days or weeks. Ned relieves the siege a few weeks or a month or so after the Sack, so the seige lasted for about a year - maybe slightly less but close enough for people to call it a year long siege.

Battle of the Bells is clearly after that, and probably a couple of months or more after. the rebels unit, Ned gets married and father Robb.

Everything works as it did before Twinslayer insisted that the world book can only be chronological, despite us already knowing that Ashford was well before Battle of the Bells, an early fight by Robert before the rebels linked up.

I may be missing something, but what is the basis for thinking that Ashford is before the Battle of the Bells?

Lord Merryweather's fate may help with this. He was replaced as Hand by Connington because he was not effective at managing the Rebellion. We know that Connington was Hand during the Battle of the Bells. So Merryweather was fired before the Battle of the Bells. If he was Hand when Ashford happened, then Ashford was before the Battle of the Bells. If he wasn't, then Ashford was after the Battle of the Bells.

Robert had victories at Gulltown and Summerhall. The Summerhall battles happened before Ashford because Lord Cafferan fought against Robert at Summerhall and for Robert at Ashford.

There was also some time between Summerhall and Ashford.

"At Summerhall he won three battles in a single day, and brought Lords Grandison and Cafferan back as prisoners. He hung their banners in the hall as trophies . . . Yet they would sit beneath those bannners of a night, drinking and feasting with Robert. He even took them hunting. 'These men meant to deliver you to Aerys to be burned,' I told him after I saw them throwing axes in the yard. 'You should not be putting axes in their hands.' Robert only laughed.
It doesn't seem likely that Gulltown, Summerhall, the feasting, hunting, ax-throwing, and Ashford all happened within the first month of the war.

Also, Ashford was a big victory for the Targaryens. It opened the path for Mace Tyrell to lay siege to Storm's End. Does it seem likely that Aerys fired Merryweather for incompetence right after the loyalists won this big victory? Or is it more likely that the loyalists lost Gulltown and Summerhall, then Merryweather was fired for incompetence, then Connington fought the Battle of the Bells, then Mace Tyrell marched to Ashford and defeated Robert.

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Could someone please provide me with quotes regarding Daemon and Rhaenyra's attempt to get married? Did Daemon as for his first wife to be set aside?

Yep. From the WB:

Daemon had been wed to Rhea Royce in 97 AC when she was heir to the ancient seat of Runestone in the Vale. It was a fine, rich match, but Daemon found the Vale little to his liking, and liked his wife even less, and they were soon estranged. It had likewise proved a barren union, and though Viserys I refused his brother's entreaties to set aside the marriage, he did recall him to court to take up the burden of rule...

Eustace claims that Daemon and Princess Rhaenyra were caught abed together by Ser Anyk Cargyll, and it was this that made Viserys exile his brother from the court. Mushroom tells a different tale, however: that Rhaenyra had eyes only for Ser Criston Cole, but that the knight had declined her overtures. It was then that her uncle offered to school her in the arts of love, so that she might move the virtuous Ser Criston to break his vows. But when she finally thought herself ready to approach him, the fright—whom Mushroom swears was as chaste and virtuous as an aged septa—reacted in horror and disgust. Viserys soon heard of it. And whatever version of the tale was true, we do know that Daemon asked for Rhaenyra's hand, if only Viserys would set aside his marriage to Lady Rhea. Viserys refused, and instead exiled Daemon from the Seven Kingdoms, never to return upon pain of death. Daemon departed, returning to the Stepstones to continue with his war.

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Martin sucks at math.

This is the man who wrote that:

A ranger who had been ranging for 9 days can also somehow draw a watch on the Wall within the last week.

Wildling arrows could somehow reach the top of a 700 foot Wall.

Catelyn can get to KL at warp speed.

Etc, etc, etc.

He's writing a book and he doesn't always take into account the timeline or geography of his world. So instead of dissecting what it SHOULD be, just dissect what he says in that case, because there's no point in doing otherwise.

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Also, Ashford was a big victory for the Targaryens. It opened the path for Mace Tyrell to lay siege to Storm's End. Does it seem likely that Aerys fired Merryweather for incompetence right after the loyalists won this big victory? Or is it more likely that the loyalists lost Gulltown and Summerhall, then Merryweather was fired for incompetence, then Connington fought the Battle of the Bells, then Mace Tyrell marched to Ashford and defeated Robert.

Well, yes, it does. Even though the royalists won, Robert managed to escape capture. And it doesn't sound like Merryweather send someone out to chase him. So Aerys fired him.

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