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R+L=J v.119


Jon Weirgaryen

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It was clearly and undisputably 'about a year' in duration.

Occasionally some noob gets confused thinking the war started straight after Harrenhal, that could be the source of the 2 year time frame?

I might be mistaken, but I remember people saying, once upon a time, that the war probably lasted closer to two years than just one. I've note cross referenced everything obviously, but well, consider:

The Battle of the Bells happened 17 years ago in 300AC.

Elia died 17 years ago in 300AC.

Thus: 17 years ago, does not mean '17 years to this day' but it means 'roughly 17 years ago'.

'Roughly' 17 years ago can, depending on the POV, be a 'positive' appreciation : meaning that the event really occurred less than 17 years ago; or it can be a 'negative' appreciation, meaning that the event actually occurred more than 17 years ago.

With the 'negative' appreciation, 17 years ago in 300AC, can refer to an event that happened anytime between the second half of 282AC and the first half of 283AC (depending on the month of reference in 300AC.)

Similarly, with the 'positive' appreciation, 17 years ago in 300AC, can refer to an event that happened anytime between the second half of 283AC and the first half of 284AC.

Because the information about Elia's death and the Battle of the Bells is not delivered by the same source/PoV GRRM is not held to an equal appreciation in both cases...and it works to his advantage, because the time-span we are looking at between these two events can thus span from

  • less than 12 months between the two > both really did happen in 283AC, beginning and end of that same year
  • between 12 and 18 months > the first happened mid 282, the other mid 283AC / or mid 282 - late 283 / or late 282 - to late 283. (+ late 282 - early 284)
  • between 18 and 24 months > any time between mid 282AC, and mid 284AC

Jon is born in 283, around the time of the Sack -- but even that, is but a rough calculation, isn't it? anyway, while early 284AC might be pushing it can we agree he was born late 283AC, at least? so, the latest possible date for Elia's death is late 283AC, correct? So that third option, isn't really one...but, well.

I'm not sure there really is a point in trying to calculate precisely when what happened anyway. As has been pointed out, GRRM doesn't like numbers. His PoV characters cannot be relied on in any case -- because they too, for the sake of authenticity, do not recall all details and their appreciation likely differs. So, the argument, imo, is a matter of credibility, not of precise calculations.

With the logistics needed to gather troops for a march, not to mention the distances Ned had to travel, I find that the more credible time-span is that the war lasted around a year and a half... two years is probably pushing it, but 12 months, even 13months seems a bit short...

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When Barbrey says "not yet half a year", I would think that she had been married for 3 to 5,9 months.. wouldn't you voice it diffetently if you had been married for only a month or two?

Which would place Barbrey's wedding either before or around the time of Brandon and Rickards death. Perhaps Barbrey was married off when Rickard was killed, because her father wanted to make certain both his daughters were wed before a possible war?

Her wedding being any later might be a bit strange, yet around the time of Rickards death, there was no betrothal yet for Ned and Cat..

It does seem that Lord Ryswell was a bit desperate. I wonder if Brandon left Barbrey with a surprise parting gift on their last night together.

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Sorry for the color, but I can never unhighlight on this site.

Even when he's planning on specifically making a timeline, he doesn't plan on doing months so there are fewer chances for those inconsistencies. .

Select the text, click on the eraser, second from left on top line, to reset the font, size, color of the text. To break links, select the linked text, click on the broken link (next to the create link button).

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Except it doesn't fit. If Jon is 9 months older than Dany, he is born sometime in the month before the Sack. If he's 8 month's he born during the Sack to a month afterwards, He'd be a couple of weeks to a couple of months old by the time Ned could arrive at the TOJ

Which then begs the question, why would the place still be bloody, if she'd given birth weeks or months before?

Post partum bleeding. A woman will bleed strongly for an extended period after birthing. If the woman has puerperal fever, too, the bleeding will be that much stronger.

Jon is born eight to nine moons before Daenerys. Daenerys was born nine moons after Rhaella left King's Landing for Dragonstone. Rhaella was raped before Rhaegar and Jon Darry (present when Rhaella was raped) left for the Trident. Rossart replaced Chelsted, who was roasted inciting the rape of Rhaella, and killed by Jaime a fortnight later, during the sack.

Ergo:

  • It takes less than a week to travel from King's Landing to the Trident, with an army

Daenerys was conceived two weeks before the sack

Jon was born two weeks before the sack, to two weeks after the sack of King's Landing

Ned must arrive at the tower within 3 and one half weeks of the sack (not impossible, give GRRM and travel to the Trident)

Even if it doesn't work out perfectly, you can rule this as author's prerogative.

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Because you guys routinely change your argument that the bloody bed indictates birth had just happened when Ned gets there, to it could have happened weeks or months ago whenever someone brings up the timeline issue.

Your argument is that the bloody bed is a sign of child birth as that's how it's described in the novels. Fine. But nowhere is it described in the novel following a birth that a bed remains bloody enough to soak the bed for months afterwards. In fact GRRM gives a fairly large lack of regard to any of the problems associated with after a birth in the novels. So you can't just come out and say that a bloody bed, which you guys say can only indicate a child birth, can instead be used to indicate a birth months ago. It doesn't fit.

I don't see any moving of the goal posts, instead I see you trying to argue a point that's not empirically true.

As has been already said, "bed of blood", "bloody bed" is both literal (afterbirth bleeding typically carries on for weeks, perhaps a couple of months. I too can attest to this) as well as a euphemism for 'the place where a woman gives birth'.

In several instances, Martin unambiguously uses the multi-word noun used as an adjective to indicate childbirth, like city government, football coach, bus driver, nursing chair...bed of blood. Therefore, I don't understand how you can ignore context, frequency, and syntax in order to refute the claim that when bed of blood is used irt Lyanna, it strongly indicates more than any other interpretation, childbirth.

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According to the Wiki (because I don't have the book handy):

With the Stormlands united behind him (ie Summerhall), Lord Robert left his brother Stannis to hold Storm's End and advanced west to Ashford.[1]

Note that this is the first sentence of a section, with a reference attached (ASOS 36 Davos), so its clear that the reference covers this line and its likely to be a fairly accurate rendering. Maybe someone else can find the actual passage.

Uniting the Stormlands is Summerhall. Gulltown is on the way home first, as Robert starts the war with Jon Arryn (when Aerys sent for his head).

With the Stormlands united after Sumerhall, Robert moves fast to face the Tyrells at Ashford. The fact that he has not yet joined the Northerners or Valemen by then is further proof that this is well before BotB, where the three armies did join up.

We are clear about Gulltown (way back to the Stormlands), and Summerhall (internal fights in Stormlands) chronology. Davos says that he then moved west to fight the Tyrells, and there wasn't any doubt about that until you misread the WoIaF (I can see how you could misunderstand that passage, having read it through this evening, because it does flow that way in the narrative. But it is not required that the discussion be in chronological order even though it seems to flow that way..

It does seem reasonable that all that was in the first month or so of the war. Robert is famous for fast movement, The Stormlands is much more densely populated (so banners can call much faster) and its all within a relatively small area. Ned probably still hadn't gotten back to Winterfell by the time of the battle of Ashford!

I think the author of that wiki made an assumption that isn't clearly stated in the book. Here is the quote from Davos 36 in ASOS:

"At Summerhall he won three battles in a single day, and brought Lords Grandison and Cafferan back as prisoners. He hung their banners in the hall as trophies. Cafferen's white fawns were spotted with blood and Grandison's sleeping lion was torn near in two. Yet they would sit beneath those bannners of a night, drinking and feasting with Robert. He even took them hunting. 'These men meant to deliver you to Aerys to be burned,' I told him after I saw them throwing axes in the yard. 'You should not be putting axes in their hands.' Robert only laughed. I would have thrown Grandison and Cafferen into a dungeon, but he turned them into friends. Lord Cafferen died at Ashford Castle, cut down by Randyll Tarly whilst fighting for Robert. Lord Grandison was wounded on the Trident and died of it a year after."

I inferred from that that Robert did not have to hurry to Ashford after Summerhall. He lingered in Storm's End feasting and hunting and throwing axes in the yard with Grandison and Cafferan. Also, Grandison and Cafferan did not need to hurry to switch sides. Robert was treating them well even when they were prisoners. And if Robert eventually lost, they would be in good shape with Aerys because they had always been loyal. I acknowledge that it is possible that they switched pretty quickly. But it is also possible they switched their allegiance after the rebels crushed Connington at the Battle of the Bells.

EDIT: Is there any indication when Mace entered the war? The closest I can find comes from Jaime. He says that before the Battle of the Bells, Aerys though Robert was a mere outlaw lord. After, he realized Robert was the greatest threat since Daemon Blackfyre.

At that point, it seems, he starts calling up his Lords Paramount. Lewyn Martell fetches an army from Dorne, Rhaegar returns from the South, and Aerys tries to summon Tywin.It is reasonable to think this is when he summoned Mace Tyrell as well.

There is no indication Robert was at Ned's wedding. Perhaps Robert took part of the army south to protect Storm's End while Hoster, Ned and Jon Arryn went to Riverrun for the duel purpose of holding a wedding and protecting the Rivelands, the Vale and the North from Tywin.

As for Merryweather, we don;t have any indication of the timing of his dismissal except it was after Summerhall and before BotBs.

That's sort of right. We also know that he was dismissed because the war was going badly for the royal forces, which is what led me to suggest that he was dismissed after back to back defeats (Gulltown and Summerhall) and not after the Targaryen's first victory (Ashford).

Actualy, there's no indication of the size of the Battle of Ashford and given Tarly routed Robert with only the Tyrell van, but the battle was indecisive, it actually seems like more of an over-rated skirmish than a major battle. Robert force-marches ahead to face the Tyrells, runs into Tarly, recklessly tries to fight anyway and gets beaten, then retreats north to join his allies - the Reach overmatches him so there is no point bottling himself up back in Storms End.

Saying it was a 'big victory' for the Targs is somewhat overdoing it. It was indecisive and left Robert with an army still in the field. Sure, it opened up the Stormlands, but Stannis had already been trusted to hold Storms End and actually the Tyrells fell into the 'trap' there and were effectively taken out of the war. If their army had join the crowns armies under either Connington or Rhaegar, they probably would have smashed the rebellion quite easily.

Ashford was an important victory for the Targs. It was their first and maybe only victory of the war. It secured great reputations for Mace Tyrell (even though he was not there) and Randyll Tarly. And before that battle, Robert was planning to meet Mace Tyrell in open battle. Afterwards, he retreated to the Riverlands and he was cut off from his power base.

What?

It was clearly and undisputably 'about a year' in duration.

Occasionally some noob gets confused thinking the war started straight after Harrenhal, that could be the source of the 2 year time frame?

I have always wondered about Ned's reflecting that "the war had raged for close to a year." The war started when Jon Arryn called his banners and ended when Stannis took Dragonstone from the Targaryens. Rhaella fled from King's Landing after the Trident and Dany was born on Dragonstone 9 moons later. If the war lasted literally a year, then the Trident happened three months into the war and Robb is no more than three months older than Dany.

Perhaps King Monkey is right and GRRM does not have a workable timeline for the Rebellion.

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As my sig has been brought up, I'd just like to add this:

Jon was not born "more than 1 year" before Dany... probably closer to eight or nine months or thereabouts.

Source:SSM

See "probably"? See "thereabouts"? This is how GRRM does timelines. There's no point trying to dig into the timelines and figure out whether Lyanna had given birth one week or two months earlier, or argue that the time gap is too long therefore blah blah blah. That's not how Martin works. He's interested in the STORY.

Here's another.

The reason I am never specific about dates and distances is precisely so that people won't sit down and do this sort of thing.

My suggestion would be to put away the ruler and the stopwatch, and just enjoy the story.

Source:SSM

My sig is there for a reason, lest we forget. "GRRM + numbers = nope nope nope" tells you everything you need to know about questions like this. Listen to the man himself, he agrees.

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I have always wondered about Ned's reflecting that "the war had raged for close to a year." The war started when Jon Arryn called his banners and ended when Stannis took Dragonstone from the Targaryens. Rhaella fled from King's Landing after the Trident and Dany was born on Dragonstone 9 moons later. If the war lasted literally a year, then the Trident happened three months into the war and Robb is no more than three months older than Dany.

Perhaps King Monkey is right and GRRM does not have a workable timeline for the Rebellion.

In story, no one ever characterizes the war as ending with Stannis taking Dragonstone. It is almost always framed by the raising of the banners and the end of the Siege of SE, as about a year.

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In story, no one ever characterizes the war as ending with Stannis taking Dragonstone. It is almost always framed by the raising of the banners and the end of the Siege of SE, as about a year.

I think Ned is the only one who said the war raged for a year, and he does not think Storm's End was the end of the war. After the Sack, he left KL "to fight the last battles of the war alone in the south." Unless he fought some battles between the Sack and lifting the siege, there were at least a few further battles after Mace Tyrell surrendered.

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“The day I learned that Brandon was to marry Catelyn Tully, though … there was nothing sweet about that pain. He never wanted her, I promise you that. He told me so, on our last night together … but Rickard Stark had great ambitions too. Southron ambitions that would not be served by having his heir marry the daughter of one of his own vassals. Afterward my father nursed some hope of wedding me to Brandon’s brother Eddard, but Catelyn Tully got that one as well. I was left with young Lord Dustin, until Ned Stark took him from me.”

“Robert’s Rebellion …”

“Lord Dustin and I had not been married half a year when Robert rose and Ned Stark called his banners. - ADwD p. 546

While this is interesting, we know the true timing, that skew Barbrey's narrative. Catelyn and Brandon had been betrothed for years. (I believe that she said twelve years old when betrothed.) We also know that Brandon appeared to look forward to the wedding and treated Catelyn as his beloved, after he had wounded Littlefinger.

But, the interesting part is the Afterward that you bolded. So, Ryswel was declined by Rickard (before he was roasted, I hope). That would even require him to decline before he trots off to Brandon's wedding at Riverrun, because he apparently was enroute when summoned to King's Landing to answer for Brandon's actions. Indeed that is supported, because it is unlikely to be months before Ned, Robert, and Jon Arryn rebel. Ned makes a trip back to Winterfell, and he is now Lord Stark, to summon his banners, and that is six months after Barbrey has wedded Dustin.

This is only one of the reasons that I hold Barbrey's monologue up to a lot of suspicion.

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Because you guys routinely change your argument that the bloody bed indictates birth had just happened when Ned gets there, to it could have happened weeks or months ago whenever someone brings up the timeline issue.

No changes to the argument. Lyanna gave birth 3-10 days before Ned arrives. Come on, it isn't that hard to understand is it? Puerpral fever limits the time between birth and mother's death.

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I might be mistaken, but I remember people saying, once upon a time, that the war probably lasted closer to two years than just one. I've note cross referenced everything obviously, but well, consider:

The Battle of the Bells happened 17 years ago in 300AC.

Elia died 17 years ago in 300AC.

Thus: 17 years ago, does not mean '17 years to this day' but it means 'roughly 17 years ago'.

'Roughly' 17 years ago can, depending on the POV, be a 'positive' appreciation : meaning that the event really occurred less than 17 years ago; or it can be a 'negative' appreciation, meaning that the event actually occurred more than 17 years ago.

With the 'negative' appreciation, 17 years ago in 300AC, can refer to an event that happened anytime between the second half of 282AC and the first half of 283AC (depending on the month of reference in 300AC.)

Similarly, with the 'positive' appreciation, 17 years ago in 300AC, can refer to an event that happened anytime between the second half of 283AC and the first half of 284AC.

Because the information about Elia's death and the Battle of the Bells is not delivered by the same source/PoV GRRM is not held to an equal appreciation in both cases...and it works to his advantage, because the time-span we are looking at between these two events can thus span from

  • less than 12 months between the two > both really did happen in 283AC, beginning and end of that same year
  • between 12 and 18 months > the first happened mid 282, the other mid 283AC / or mid 282 - late 283 / or late 282 - to late 283. (+ late 282 - early 284)
  • between 18 and 24 months > any time between mid 282AC, and mid 284AC
Jon is born in 283, around the time of the Sack -- but even that, is but a rough calculation, isn't it? anyway, while early 284AC might be pushing it can we agree he was born late 283AC, at least? so, the latest possible date for Elia's death is late 283AC, correct? So that third option, isn't really one...but, well.

I'm not sure there really is a point in trying to calculate precisely when what happened anyway. As has been pointed out, GRRM doesn't like numbers. His PoV characters cannot be relied on in any case -- because they too, for the sake of authenticity, do not recall all details and their appreciation likely differs. So, the argument, imo, is a matter of credibility, not of precise calculations.

With the logistics needed to gather troops for a march, not to mention the distances Ned had to travel, I find that the more credible time-span is that the war lasted around a year and a half... two years is probably pushing it, but 12 months, even 13months seems a bit short...

I personally wouldn't describe an event mentioned halfway through 300 AC as having occurred 17 yeas ago if it had taken place in the, say, 10th or 11th month of 282 AC. That would be more than 17,5 year difference..

Which would then be described as 18 years ago, most likely.

EDIT: Is there any indication when Mace entered the war? The closest I can find comes from Jaime. He says that before the Battle of the Bells, Aerys though Robert was a mere outlaw lord. After, he realized Robert was the greatest threat since Daemon Blackfyre.

There is no indication Robert was at Ned's wedding. Perhaps Robert took part of the army south to protect Storm's End while Hoster, Ned and Jon Arryn went to Riverrun for the duel purpose of holding a wedding and protecting the Rivelands, the Vale and the North from Tywin.

1) He entered at Ashford.. and then went on to the Siege. You say that Robert did not hurry after Summerhal, and indeed, that is supported by text. Robert returned to SE after Summerhal for an unknown time before he left again. But we also know that Stannis was in charge during the Siege. Robert was never besieged. How would he and his entire army have escaped from SE?

2) Yeah, we do. The app states clearly that Robert was present for the wedding of Ned/Cat and Jon/Lysa.

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How do you account for all the foreshadowing that leaves Jon's body frozen in the Ice Cells for an extended period of time..

It takes more than an hour or two to freeze a human body...

Are you referring to Bran's vision of present events? (Before Catelyn arrives in King's Landing.)

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Damn, I am forced to agree with you. Does that mean I have to re-think my position? (just kidding). ;)

The passage in question is to be found on the last page of AGoT chapter 21 [Tyrion]

"My uncle is out there," Jon Snow said softly, leaning on his spear as he stared off into the darkness. "The first night they sent me up here, I thought, Uncle Benjen will ride back tonight, and I'll see him first and blow the horn. He never came, though. Not that night and not any night."

"Give him time," Tyrion said.

Far off in the north, a wolf began to howl. Another voice picked up the call, then another. Ghost cocked his head and listened. "If he doesn't come back," Jon Snow promised, "Ghost and I will go find him." He put his hand on the direwolf's head.

"I believe you," Tyrion said, but what he thought was, And who will go find you? He shivered.

I'm not convinced by the Jon warged into Ghost theory, but in terms of foreshadowing this is about as subtle as a train crash.

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The passage in question is to be found on the last page of AGoT chapter 21 [Tyrion]

"My uncle is out there," Jon Snow said softly, leaning on his spear as he stared off into the darkness. "The first night they sent me up here, I thought, Uncle Benjen will ride back tonight, and I'll see him first and blow the horn. He never came, though. Not that night and not any night."

"Give him time," Tyrion said.

Far off in the north, a wolf began to howl. Another voice picked up the call, then another. Ghost cocked his head and listened. "If he doesn't come back," Jon Snow promised, "Ghost and I will go find him." He put his hand on the direwolf's head.

"I believe you," Tyrion said, but what he thought was, And who will go find you? He shivered.

I'm not convinced by the Jon warged into Ghost theory, but in terms of foreshadowing this is about as subtle as a train crash.

Thanks for finding that quote. It certainly does support my theory that Jon/Ghost will be heading North during WoW. And this quote suggests that they will find out what happened to Benjen during their trip. I really am surprise that more people don't see it this way.

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