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R+L=J v.119


Jon Weirgaryen

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These are the Lannister lies. And when Robert got into bed with the Lannisters, Jon Arryn and Ned had to do the same.

What? Which Lannister lies had Ned been keeping then? Has Ned been asked by House Martell about Elia? Not as far as we know..

The Lannisters actively lied about Elia, as did Jon Arryn, who most likely did everything he could to tone down ge rumours at the dornish court.

Ned, on the other hand, hasn't dealt with any Martells, had not lied, and in fact, while he might suspect who had done the deed, he himself doesn't know it either.

Some said it had been Gregor who’d dashed the skull of the infant prince Aegon Targaryen against a wall, and whispered that afterward he had raped the mother, the Dornish princess Elia, before putting her to the sword.

"some said" does not indicate that Ned is 100% certain of how it happened.

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As far as the KG are concerned, King Jon I Targaryen has no major allies.

... King Aemon 'Jon' I Tagaryen ... ;)

So Eddard, a powerful Lord Paramount, arrives at the doorstep of the ToJ. As far as the KG are concerned, Ned's nephew is the King. Why don't they tell him?

... because it is not the Lord Stark of Winterfell who comes callin', it is the usurper's general.

They have news of the slaughter of Targaryen babies with that general having been present at the scene, they cannot have it repeated.

... but still, they tell him. The poem that is the exchange of the three not so wise men kingsguard and Ned has it, with their commander still on his knees "we swore a vow". He should have said "... right before you came in". But they were guards, not diplomats, they had nothing to offer to Ned.

eta: missing apostrophe

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I have a question about the ToJ showdown, that somebody might help me with!

First off, I'm all for R+L=J; apart from all the evidence for it, it makes sense as a story, which is probably the best proof! I understand why the KG were at the ToJ. What I don't quite understand is the reaction of the KG to Ned.

The rebellion was led principally by the Arryns, Starks, Tullys and Baratheons. The Lannisters stood on the sidelines. The Tyrells were on the side of the Targaryens, but their actions betray a certain lack of enthusiasm. The Martells sided with the Targaryens, because of Elia and her Targ-Martell children.

By the time Ned arrives at the ToJ, the Lannisters had joined the rebellion for the sack of KL. The Tyrells had bent the knee to "the Usurper" at Storm's End. With Elia and her children dead, the Martells no longer have any interest/stake in the Targ dynasty.

As far as the KG are concerned, King Jon I Targaryen has no major allies.

And then Ned rolls up. At this point, Jon's family consists:

1. His grandmother, Rhaella, fled to Dragonstone, pregnant

2. His uncle Viserys, a boy of seven, fled to Dragonstone

3. His mother, Lyanna, dying

4. His uncle, Eddard, Warden of the North

5. His uncle, Benjen, Night's Watch

So Eddard, a powerful Lord Paramount, arrives at the doorstep of the ToJ. As far as the KG are concerned, Ned's nephew is the King. Why don't they tell him? Not only do the Starks now have a stake in the Targ dynasty, but the Targs themselves are seriously depleted; Jon would be raised under Stark influence and Ned would be the prime candidate to be Regent for the young Jon. At the very least, they could cause division amongst the Usurper's allies. But no, they draw swords against Ned, as if they're going to kill every one of the Usurper's allies and armies sent against them...

Why didn't the KG say: "Hey Ned, come see your nephew, our King. You wanna be Regent?"

Ned was a rebel and rebels had just recently murdered Rhaegar's other children. It didn't matter that Ned had nothing to do with the murders of Elia, Rhaenys and Aegon, because the rebels were now aligned with the ones who did; the Lannisters. So, Ned was either likely to be directly dangerous to Jon, or at least dangerous by association. Once it was decided that Robert would be king, the Stark and Targaryen interests were irreconcilable. There's no way Ned would have turned on Robert, Jon Arryn and the Tullys, and tried to install baby Jon as king.

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I have a question about the ToJ showdown, that somebody might help me with!

First off, I'm all for R+L=J; apart from all the evidence for it, it makes sense as a story, which is probably the best proof! I understand why the KG were at the ToJ. What I don't quite understand is the reaction of the KG to Ned.

The rebellion was led principally by the Arryns, Starks, Tullys and Baratheons. The Lannisters stood on the sidelines. The Tyrells were on the side of the Targaryens, but their actions betray a certain lack of enthusiasm. The Martells sided with the Targaryens, because of Elia and her Targ-Martell children.

By the time Ned arrives at the ToJ, the Lannisters had joined the rebellion for the sack of KL. The Tyrells had bent the knee to "the Usurper" at Storm's End. With Elia and her children dead, the Martells no longer have any interest/stake in the Targ dynasty.

As far as the KG are concerned, King Jon I Targaryen has no major allies.

And then Ned rolls up. At this point, Jon's family consists:

1. His grandmother, Rhaella, fled to Dragonstone, pregnant

2. His uncle Viserys, a boy of seven, fled to Dragonstone

3. His mother, Lyanna, dying

4. His uncle, Eddard, Warden of the North

5. His uncle, Benjen, Night's Watch

So Eddard, a powerful Lord Paramount, arrives at the doorstep of the ToJ. As far as the KG are concerned, Ned's nephew is the King. Why don't they tell him? Not only do the Starks now have a stake in the Targ dynasty, but the Targs themselves are seriously depleted; Jon would be raised under Stark influence and Ned would be the prime candidate to be Regent for the young Jon. At the very least, they could cause division amongst the Usurper's allies. But no, they draw swords against Ned, as if they're going to kill every one of the Usurper's allies and armies sent against them...

Why didn't the KG say: "Hey Ned, come see your nephew, our King. You wanna be Regent?"

MtnLion has a very good analysis of the ToJ sequence here: http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/117116-rl-j-v105/?p=6228116

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I've once suggested that perhaps, Ned discovered (told by Benjen) that Lyanna had gone with Rhaegar voluntarily, and that what had happened to Brandon and Rickard was never supposed to happen..

In addition, I suggested that Ned might have believed from that moment on (after having given the order of calling his banners) that there was a good possibility that Lyanna was pregnant, and that this only increased his fear (which he masked with anger) when he saw Roberts reaction to the deaths of Aegon and Rhaenys, causing him to leave practically immediately, to find Lyanna (and her potential child) before anyone else could.

Of course, that was based on the believe that Benjen had been involved in the Lyanna/Rhaegar affair, and I'm not sure if that can still work, with Lyanna having been at Harrenhal, and Benjen at Winterfell..

I've read Lady Gwyn's essay yesterday, 'Rescue at the Crossroads'. She quoted that same quote, it's upon reading it in her essay that I found the word to stand out. There's many good things in there, things she had already posted on the forum in parts, and that I'm sure many are familiar with.

I do find that the information in the world book goes in the direction she's arguing, too. I don't know if it all has to do with the KotLT, or if there was something else going on, but, in any case, I find there's a strong case to be made that it was indeed a rescue.

As you said, Benjen Stark was apparently in Winterfell, so if he was involved at all, he probably wasn't as involved as we've suspected before. As Lady Gwyn suggests (and I've yet to write comment her great analysis) it's possible Rickard was actually alerted of what Rhaegar was planning, but that the same message was not relayed to Brandon. It could be also, that a message was send to Winterfell (Benjen), and that Benjen failed to relay it on time....if this was the case, Benjen would surely have told Ned once Ned came north -- but by that point, it was probably too late to back out, as Robert and Jon were already at war.

That being said, I believe that if we are dealing with a 'rescue' and not an elopement, then we should probably reconsider the whole notion of 'secrecy' that is attached to the ToJ. House Fowler patrols the Prince's pass. House Manwoody's seat is at Kingsgrave. The Pass itself is one of the easiest, and most frequented route into dorne when coming from the reach. Rhaegar's in-laws are dornish.

The tower is also a watch tower, this is practical as it allows to keep an eye on the people crossing the Prince's pass. But, it is also, imo, the first place anyone traveling that pass would seek out for shelter.... I don't believe that Lyanna's location was all that secret, tbh. The dornish troops may have marched through the bone way, but all in all, I'd be surprised if no-one among the dornish was aware of Rhaegar's hiding place.

We can argue about the secrecy of the tower, certainly. But, we also should consider that GRRM had the whole map at his disposal, he could have chosen any place for Lyanna to be found. But instead, he chose a watch tower at the dornish frontier that doesn't even look isolated enough that we can state with certainty that it was a very secret abode.

And even if the tower was abandoned in normal circumstances, there was a war going on. With the rebellion, the dornish would probably take to patrolling their mountains more regularly, if only against outlaws who tend to become more numerous during tumultuous times. One might argue they didn't have the men for it -- but, to my knowledge, it wasn't until the battle of the trident that the dornish truly participated to the war effort.

All in all, there was quite a few people imo, who could have told Ned about the tower. That doesn't need to mean that these same people knew anything about Lyanna's pregnancy. It's possible she wasn't yet showing enough for it to be truly noticeable, when Rhaegar left to KL.

I'm now almost tempted to see Rhaegar's stay at the tower of joy as a result of the dornish refusing him entry for as long as he had Lyanna with him. Which, would have been the result of a misconstruction of Rhaegar's early intentions...I mean, it makes sense to seek out your in-law's support if you are in conflict with your father, the King -- it doesn't, if you are eloping...and if the dornish, like most of the realm, suspected that Lyanna was his mistress it seems logical they would refuse him that help, too.

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I've read Lady Gwyn's essay yesterday, 'Rescue at the Crossroads'. She quoted that same quote, it's upon reading it in her essay that I found the word to stand out. There's many good things in there, things she had already posted on the forum in parts, and that I'm sure many are familiar with.

I do find that the information in the world book goes in the direction she's arguing, too. I don't know if it all has to do with the KotLT, or if there was something else going on, but, in any case, I find there's a strong case to be made that it was indeed a rescue.

As you said, Benjen Stark was apparently in Winterfell, so if he was involved at all, he probably wasn't as involved as we've suspected before. As Lady Gwyn suggests (and I've yet to write comment her great analysis) it's possible Rickard was actually alerted of what Rhaegar was planning, but that the same message was not relayed to Brandon. It could be also, that a message was send to Winterfell (Benjen), and that Benjen failed to relay it on time....if this was the case, Benjen would surely have told Ned once Ned came north -- but by that point, it was probably too late to back out, as Robert and Jon were already at war.

The way I currently see it, is that Lyanna send a message to Winterfell, which Benjen failed to get to Brandon in time (I personally don't believe that Rickard knew of Rhaegars plans long before, but I do think it is possible that a message of Lyanna reached him before he reached KL), causing Rickard to have to go to KL, leading to both men getting killed. Even if the fault doesn't truly lay with Benjen, it would not be strange if he did feel that the fault was his.. causing his feelings of guilt etc.

But that way, Ned still could have discovered what was happening, and what he was likely to find, when returning to Winterfell to call his banners.

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I think that the story might also go in the direction that I have argued for quite some time - that Brandon knew that Lyanna had gone willingly and that "come out and die" is indeed an outraged elder brother act, the same as he overreacted at Harrenhal, seeing the crowning as a stain on Lyanna's honour. IMHO, this is all consistent with Hoster Tully's rage and assessment of "gallant fool".


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I am afraid you have missed the entire point of Oberyn Martel's role in ASOS. It is all about the cover up.

Oberyn tells Tyrion he came for justice for Elia and that he does not believe the lies Jon Arryn told to Doran. These are the lies that exonerated Tywin in Elia's death. Then, when Tyrion discusses it with Tywin, and says that Oberyn knows the truth, Tywin says "He knows nothing. He has heard tales. Stable gossip and kitchen calumnies. He has no proof." Tywin then says he is going to keep Gregor out of sight until Oberyn leaves and that they need to blame it all on Amory Lorch -- because Lorch is dead.

These are the Lannister lies. And when Robert got into bed with the Lannisters, Jon Arryn and Ned had to do the same.

That is true, but I still don't think these are the lies that Ned is referring too. They may be part of it, but in all honesty I'm not even certain that Ned is aware of what excuses Jon Arryn had to serve the dornish. After the rebellion, Ned probably wanted nothing else but to go home and forget it all. He never showed any great interest in southron politics, there's no reason to think he lingered in KL to discuss the new peace, and the crimes committed during the war. His job was done, it was for Arryn to play at diplomacy.

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Why didn't the KG say: "Hey Ned, come see your nephew, our King. You wanna be Regent?"

I think you answered your own question. Jon (Aemon ;) ) had no real allies at this point. Ned was unlikely to start another war for him, and he couldn't have fought Baratheon + Lannisters all on his own, with only the Tully's for allies. Jon Arryn would probably have stayed out of such a conflict, Ned, might not even have wanted to go to war against Riobert -- and you can be sure Robert would not have allowed it. The Martell's they could forget about, too.

Ned declaring for Jon would have served no true purpose but to sign Jon's death warrant and prolong a war that had no clear outcome. I think the KG knew that Jon's cause was a lost cause, but they were sworn to defend him, so they did. And, if you are defending a member of the royal family, the heir to the throne, I do believe that defending that person's birthright is actually, an implicit part of it.

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I think you answered your own question. Jon (Aemon ;) ) had no real allies at this point. Ned was unlikely to start another war for him, and he couldn't have fought Baratheon + Lannisters all on his own, with only the Tully's for allies

"Lords and ladies of Westeros, join his Grace King Aemon 'Jon' I Targaryen in the Swaddling Restoration or have your lands, castles, titles ceised and your lives forfeit..."

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Ned was a rebel and rebels had just recently murdered Rhaegar's other children. It didn't matter that Ned had nothing to do with the murders of Elia, Rhaenys and Aegon, because the rebels were now aligned with the ones who did; the Lannisters. So, Ned was either likely to be directly dangerous to Jon, or at least dangerous by association. Once it was decided that Robert would be king, the Stark and Targaryen interests were irreconcilable. There's no way Ned would have turned on Robert, Jon Arryn and the Tullys, and tried to install baby Jon as king.

Personally, I find this explanation to be very poor...

I understand your motive for presenting this explanation, as it is the best that you have to offer, but I think most would agree that it is rather lacking, to say the least...

The real reason that the KG did not advise Ned that his sister had just given birth to a son is more likely one of the following::

  • Because the author did not want the audience to know Jon's story at this point (or did not want the audience to come by the information so easily)

Because Jon/Jon's birth was of no importance to the King's Guard & they stood their ground for reasons that the author has yet to reveal...

I think that one of these has to be correct...

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Personally, I find this explanation to be very poor...

I understand your motive for presenting this explanation, as it is the best that you have to offer, but I think most would agree that it is rather lacking, to say the least...

The real reason that the KG did not advise Ned that his sister had just given birth to a son is more likely one of the following::

  • Because the author did not want the audience to know Jon's story at this point (or did not want the audience to come by the information so easily)

Because Jon/Jon's birth was of no importance to the King's Guard & they stood their ground for reasons that the author has yet to reveal...

I think that one of these has to be correct...

Well the first one is obviously true. GRRM set this up as a mystery so that means "treading water" for a bit. But I don't think the KG's reaction is out of line or out of character from what we know of the individual KG and them as a collective whole.

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The KG are not about to tell the best friend of the man who usurped the Targaryen throne that they have the Targaryen heir to the throne hidden in the Tower of Joy. The idea that they would tell him because he was her brother is ludicrous. They aren't idiots, they aren't about to tell anyone what is hidden up in that tower. They simply gave their reasons as to why they were refusing to bend the knee or leave, but that doesn't mean they are going to say "Hey, your nephew is up there and he's the rightful Targaryen king now- promise us that you won't tell Robert, ummkay?"

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What? Which Lannister lies had Ned been keeping then? Has Ned been asked by House Martell about Elia? Not as far as we know..

The Lannisters actively lied about Elia, as did Jon Arryn, who most likely did everything he could to tone down ge rumours at the dornish court.

Ned, on the other hand, hasn't dealt with any Martells, had not lied, and in fact, while he might suspect who had done the deed, he himself doesn't know it either.

"some said" does not indicate that Ned is 100% certain of how it happened.

Here is a partial answer to your first question.

Ned was a rebel and rebels had just recently murdered Rhaegar's other children. It didn't matter that Ned had nothing to do with the murders of Elia, Rhaenys and Aegon, because the rebels were now aligned with the ones who did; the Lannisters.

As to the second, Ned knows the most important fact -- that Tywin was behind it.

"When I laid those bodies before the throne, no man could doubt that we had forsaken House Targaryen forever. And Robert's relief was palpable."

Tywin wanted everyone in the room to know that he was responsible for those deaths --including Robert (Tywin says even Robert, "stupid as he was", understood), Ned, Jon Arryn, and Kevan.

But the rebels had to lie about it to everyone else. The world book sets out the lie: that no one knew who killed Elia and her innocent children, but it suggests maybe it was done on Aerys' orders.

That is true, but I still don't think these are the lies that Ned is referring too. They may be part of it, but in all honesty I'm not even certain that Ned is aware of what excuses Jon Arryn had to serve the dornish. After the rebellion, Ned probably wanted nothing else but to go home and forget it all. He never showed any great interest in southron politics, there's no reason to think he lingered in KL to discuss the new peace, and the crimes committed during the war. His job was done, it was for Arryn to play at diplomacy.

I think Ned was implicated in it the minute Robert refused to punish Tywin.

He also had to live the lies. Here are some examples.

Ned endorsed the wedding of Robert and Cersei by attending it. Here's why. We know that Ned reconciled with Robert over their shared grief at Lyanna's death. This includes the fact that Ned told Robert: "I was with her when she died." It is pretty clear this reconciliation happened in person; it is probably what triggered Robert's marriage to Cersei, since Robert could not fight a war ostensibly to win Lyanna back without first finding out if she was still alive. So the wedding took place after Ned returned to King's Landing from Dorne.

The Robert-Cersei wedding took place quickly, though. The world book says it was Robert's "first act," but that is an exaggeration. Not only did he have to wait to find out about Lyanna, but we know from the White Book that Jaime was in the honor guard that escorted Cersei from the Rock to King's Landing for the wedding. So it was at least several weeks after the Sack.

So I think Ned had to go along with all of this as though the Lannisters were key allies and an honorable house.

Who knows how often Ned was in the South after that? Evidently, he spent enough time down there to get to know Stannis pretty well. That is clear from both Ned's and Stannis' POVs. Ned also joined up with the royal army during the Greyjoy Rebellion, and at the beginning of AGOT he had to bow and scrape to Cersei, then feast Cersei and Jaime at Winterfell's High Table for all his household to see. Then he went along with betrothing his daughter to Joffrey.

I don't know if he ever met Doran Martell. But I don't think he would have to say the lies directly to Doran. He just had to keep his mouth shut and go along with it all, which is why he thinks that he has been living the lies.

That doesn't mean there aren't other lies, like telling the world that Jon is his son. But the Lannister lies ("there was no honor in that conquest") keep him up at night.

They bother Robert, too -- he just drowns it all in wine.

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That is true, but I still don't think these are the lies that Ned is referring too. They may be part of it, but in all honesty I'm not even certain that Ned is aware of what excuses Jon Arryn had to serve the dornish. After the rebellion, Ned probably wanted nothing else but to go home and forget it all. He never showed any great interest in southron politics, there's no reason to think he lingered in KL to discuss the new peace, and the crimes committed during the war. His job was done, it was for Arryn to play at diplomacy.

There are also the mentions in AGOT text (I do not have an e-copy to quote) that hint at a larger issue:

Ned thinks that "this is not the first time he was forced to make common cause with Lannisters"

When Ned sees Robert for the first time in years, he thinks " "Fifteen years past, when they had ridden forth to win a throne ..." (this is followed later by the "lies he had lived for fourteen years")

and then this exchange between Cersei and Jaime before Bran is tossed from the tower:

"You are as blind as Robert, " the woman was saying.

"If you mean I see the same thing, yes, " the man said. "I see a man who would sooner die than betray his king."

"He betrayed one already, or have you forgotten?" the woman said.

I think we have more than just a "reactionary rebellion" going on here.

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There are also the mentions in AGOT text (I do not have an e-copy to quote) that hint at a larger issue:

Ned thinks that "this is not the first time he was forced to make common cause with Lannisters"

When Ned sees Robert for the first time in years, he thinks " "Fifteen years past, when they had ridden forth to win a throne ..." (this is followed later by the "lies he had lived for fourteen years")

and then this exchange between Cersei and Jaime before Bran is tossed from the tower:

"You are as blind as Robert, " the woman was saying.

"If you mean I see the same thing, yes, " the man said. "I see a man who would sooner die than betray his king."

"He betrayed one already, or have you forgotten?" the woman said.

I think we have more than just a "reactionary rebellion" going on here.

*sigh*

Ned rode off 15 years ago to fight against Aerys.

The war lasted one year.

He brought home a child at the end of it.

He lived his lies for 14 years.

Simple math.

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*sigh*

I was exploring the possibility that there's a little more to it.

Simple subtext.

Ned's not exactly a complicated man. There's very little subtext to any of his motives. Even lying to protect his nephew's life has haunted him for 14 years, whereas most people would have figured that they were completely justified. The idea that he would lie to save the Lannisters is absolutely unfounded and completely against his character.

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