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Red Wedding 2.0: Riverrun Edition


Fire Eater

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So with winter here it will make the common folk more willing to work for the Freys who's lands have largely been untouched by the war, have supplies and the money to buy supplies.

It makes it more likely that they will be able to recruit new men to bolster their numbers,

And as pointed out, they have new lands and money to support hiring more men and with the population displacement there will be smallfolk out there ready to work.

That is a possibility, just like the possibilities I outlined.

Robb and his 20k army didnt think they could take the Twins, how do you imagine a few hundred bandits would be able to this?

That's not really how medieval land-holding works, you don't have a free market in labor. Even if you've got free peasants, you've got long-term customary contracts. And why exactly are the Freys going to hire superfluous peasants?

I think the Freys are going to be more concerned with the Freys having enough to last for the winter.

Robb was facing the entire Frey army fortified inside the Twins. That army is now scattered across two kingdoms, making them dangerously thin on the ground.

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The Frey's must have more than 4,000 soldiers, otherwise some of the soldiers we are told are Frey must belong to another house, possibly Vypren who seem to be very close to House Frey.



Think about it; 3,600 Frey soldiers march from the Twins with Roose and Robb. Robb has 3,500 northmen with him when marching to the twins (assuming negligible numbers of Rivermen), and had 5,000 in the whispering wood, including the 300 Karstarks, an unknown number of Mallisters and the (relatively) light losses we can assume Robb had around 1,000 Frey knights and men at arms with him.



In book two we are told Ser Aenys (leader of the Frey foot) has only 1,500 Frey foot-soldiers at Harrenhal, whilst a few hundred more may be fulfilling various roles in that area of the Riverlands, it seems unlikely that all of the rest were deployed, it also seems unlikely that more Frey soldiers are back at the Twins, since Roose married a Bolton and Robb would see it as a betrayal (and possibly pretext to break his arrangements with the Freys) if they withdrew men from his armies.



The only obvious explanation is that the other 1,100 died on the Green Fork, hardly unbelievable considering four Freys were captured*. Meaning that the total number, if 4,000 is accurate, should be ~2,900±200.



Since at least 1,400 (possibly as many as 2,000) go north, there can only be ~1,500 left in the south, with ~400 presumably needed at or near the Twins, leaving only 1,100 to engage in the Siege of Riverrun, where 2,000 were present. No one is left to exert rule across the Riverlands, which we know they were; the BWB speak about dodging columns of Frey knights as if it is routine.



From my estimates we have had roughly 1,500 Freys beyond the initial 4,000 appear, meaning that either:



1. They always had more than 4,000, Walder still hadn't gathered all of him men yet.



2. Other houses, such as the aforementioned Vypren, lent troops on these occassions.



3. Walder was training large numbers of troops in books 2 and 3.



*3 Freys and a Rivers.


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That's not really how medieval land-holding works, you don't have a free market in labor. Even if you've got free peasants, you've got long-term customary contracts. And why exactly are the Freys going to hire superfluous peasants?

Maybe it was someone else but were you not advocating that the Manderlys army would have increased in part because of the dispersed Northern population from areas such Hornwood?

Robb was facing the entire Frey army fortified inside the Twins. That army is now scattered across two kingdoms, making them dangerously thin on the ground.

It had little to do with the army as Robb and his generals were told of the 4,000 and were talking about storming it. It was only till they actually got close that they realized that they could not take it. Even the confident Greatjon was swearing in frustration.

In the World book the Twins is described as: "These two keeps, now called the Twins, are amongst the strongest in the realm."

It would take a well equipped, well supplied army to take the Twins in Winter which the BWB are neither.

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From my estimates we have had roughly 1,500 Freys beyond the initial 4,000 appear, meaning that either:

1. They always had more than 4,000, Walder still hadn't gathered all of him men yet.

2. Other houses, such as the aforementioned Vypren, lent troops on these occassions.

3. Walder was training large numbers of troops in books 2 and 3.

*3 Freys and a Rivers.

They were also able to take Seagard with a force lead by Black Walder. I think its pretty obvious that they have recruited more men since the 4,000 supplied to Robb 3 years ago at the start of the war

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Is 200 a large Garrison for the capital of Realm?

"You have a garrison of two hundred." Too large a garrison in truth

And Riverrun isn't the capital KL is. If you are referring to the capital of the riverlands, it is currently Harrenhal not Riverrun.

The Blackfish burned what supplies the people near Riverrun had, I'm not sure why they should love the Tullys much more.

Nothing is mentioned of him burning the supplies but picking the country clean. The Blackfish didn't burn anything.

That also ignores that the smallfolk served the Tullys their whole lives. Edmure sheltered them in Riverrun during the Battle of the Fords where other lords would turn them away, and they know he cares about them. How many RWs did the Tully's have? Men of Riverrun were likely among the dead at the RW. You think they would prefer the Freys who enacted the RW to their overlords given that?

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"You have a garrison of two hundred." Too large a garrison in truth

And Riverrun isn't the capital KL is. If you are referring to the capital of the riverlands, it is currently Harrenhal not Riverrun.

Currently it may be Harenhal, at the time of the siege it was Riverrun.

200 is not too large. Robb leaves 400 at the Twins and apparently thousands to guard White Harbor.

Nothing is mentioned of him burning the supplies but picking the country clean. The Blackfish didn't burn anything.

Exactly. He took all the food into Riverrun and then kicked out the smallfolk leaving them to starve.

That also ignores that the smallfolk served the Tullys their whole lives. Edmure sheltered them in Riverrun during the Battle of the Fords where other lords would turn them away, and they know he cares about them. How many RWs did the Tully's have? Men of Riverrun were likely among the dead at the RW. You think they would prefer the Freys who enacted the RW to their overlords given that?

Brynden kicked them out, Cat Tully got them invlolved in the war in the first place.

Sure some will remain loyal and become bandits and fight a pointless battle were they gain nothing but a different person to serve.

The majority will get on with their lives. If the Freys are offering work and food during when they are hungry many will take it as the alternative is starvation.

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Currently it may be Harenhal, at the time of the siege it was Riverrun.

200 is not too large. Robb leaves 400 at the Twins and apparently thousands to guard White Harbor.

No, it was Harrenhal as LF was made Lord of Harrenhal and liege lord of the riverlands after the BoBW before Riverrun was besieged.

Jaime explicitly calls it "too large a garrison." How much more proof do you need?

Exactly. He took all the food into Riverrun and then kicked out the smallfolk leaving them to starve.

The Freys and Lannisters would have taken he food from them by force anyway, and the peasants owe their harvest to the Tullys regardless. He expelled the useless mouths from Riverrun which I wouldn't call starvation.

Brynden kicked them out, Cat Tully got them invlolved in the war in the first place.

Sure some will remain loyal and become bandits and fight a pointless battle were they gain nothing but a different person to serve.

The majority will get on with their lives. If the Freys are offering work and food during when they are hungry many will take it as the alternative is starvation.

Brynden didn't kick them out. They didn't live in Riverrun but in their respective homes, and they left Riverrun after the Battle of the Fords was over. How many peasants do you see blaming Cat? They blame the people who attacked them preemptively, the Lannisters.

Except the person they currently serve, Emmon, is pompous, and they know he got Riverrun as a reward for the Freys' part in the RW. Genna is also a Lannister. They seem to love Edmure while the Lannisters and Freys have earned their hatred.

Do you really think they would forget their friends and relatives killed at the RW? The breaking of one of the oldest and most sacred vows in Westeros? Even in KL it is reviled. Besides, Emmon isn't offering that, but telling them basically what he expects from them as their lord, and even Jaime says Emmon is easy to feel contemptuous of and doesn't inspire loyalty. His own wife thinks he will be a terrible lord. The wedding would be in a number of months, not enough time to win loyalty over the impediment of the RW and Wo5K.

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No, it was Harrenhal as LF was made Lord of Harrenhal and liege lord of the riverlands after the BoBW before Riverrun was besieged.

Jaime explicitly calls it "too large a garrison." How much more proof do you need?

No he thinks that. "You have a garrison of two hundred." Too large a garrison, in truth, which suggests that Jaime doesn't think they will need that many, which kind of negates your original point that:

"the smallfolk of Darry and Riverrun have every reason to hate the Freys so they can't be relied upon, or why else would Emmon be given a larger than usual garrison? "

Emmon is the one who wants it, Jaime gives it to him despite thinking he wont need it, which suggests that Riverrun is not as vulnerable as you suggested.

The Freys and Lannisters would have taken he food from them by force anyway, and the peasants owe their harvest to the Tullys regardless. He expelled the useless mouths from Riverrun which I wouldn't call starvation.

Maybe. But people tend to blame the people who took their stuff rather than the people who might have taken it. The Tullys had a duty to protect their Vassals and they failed it for the last two years.

Brynden didn't kick them out. They didn't live in Riverrun but in there respective homes, and they left Riverrun after the Battle of the Fords was over. How many peasants do you see blaming Cat? They blame the people who attacked them preemptively, the Lannisters.

They were in Riverrun and then he kicked them out. They went from safety with food to in dangers way with no food for the winter.

I'm sure they are desperate to fight for the Blackfish, so he can betray them again when the going gets tough.

Except the person they currently serve, Emmon, is pompous, and they know he got Riverrun as a reward for the Freys' part in the RW. Genna is also a Lannister. They seem to love Edmure while the Lannisters and Freys have earned their hatred.

Stop the press!!! A pompous Lord. I'm sure the smallfolk have never encountered that before.

Do you really think they would forget their friends and relatives killed at the RW?

It was Robb and the Northern soldiers who got slaughtered at the Red Wedding. Robb traveled with 3,500. While there would have been a few Riverlord dignities, there would not be friends and relatives of the smallfolk of Riverrun killed.

"Aside from her brother Edmure's modest retinue of friends, the lords of the Trident had remained to hold the riverlands"

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No he thinks that. "You have a garrison of two hundred." Too large a garrison, in truth, which suggests that Jaime doesn't think they will need that many, which kind of negates your original point that:

"the smallfolk of Darry and Riverrun have every reason to hate the Freys so they can't be relied upon, or why else would Emmon be given a larger than usual garrison? "

Emmon is the one who wants it, Jaime gives it to him despite thinking he wont need it, which suggests that Riverrun is not as vulnerable as you suggested.

He explicitly calls it too large a garrison, which is exactly what I was saying. Jaime isn't the one who decides how big a garrison Emmon should have, but Emmon and the Freys since it is their seat. The Freys gave him the garrison not Jaime.

Maybe. But people tend to blame the people who took their stuff rather than the people who might have taken it. The Tullys had a duty to protect their Vassals and they failed it for the last two years.

Failed it? They managed to drive back Tywin's men from their keeps west of Harrenhal. We are talking about the smallfolk of RIverrun not Tully bannermen. The Tullys were doing something about it.

They were in Riverrun and then he kicked them out. They went from safety with food to in dangers way with no food for the winter.

I'm sure they are desperate to fight for the Blackfish, so he can betray them again when the going gets tough.

No, they left Riverrun after the Battle of the Fords since Tywin's army was no longer there to threaten them. The Blackfish merely kicked out a few servants before the siege. The smallfolk were safer in this situation since they were now Emmon's smallfolk given he has been made the Lord of Riverrun, and the only thing they wanted was to take Riverrun for Emmon not make total war on Emmon's new seat. They owe their tillage to Riverrun, it is the basic of feudal obligations. The smallfolk likely have some food to feed themselves, and the commons are a source of food as well. They seem more likely to focus on the Frey-Lannister army at their door then the Blackfish. The Lannisters likely caused most of any foo shortage in the first place when Jaime came to Riverrun.

That is a complete mischaracterization of the Blackfish's actions. Where does he betray them? Nothing he does could be called "betrayal."

No he thinks that. "You have a garrison of two hundred." Too large a garrison, in truth, which suggests that Jaime doesn't think they will need that many, which kind of negates your original point that:

"the smallfolk of Darry and Riverrun have every reason to hate the Freys so they can't be relied upon, or why else would Emmon be given a larger than usual garrison? "

Stop the press!!! A pompous Lord. I'm sure the smallfolk have never encountered that before.

It was Robb and the Northern soldiers who got slaughtered at the Red Wedding. Robb traveled with 3,500. While there would have been a few Riverlord dignities, there would not be friends and relatives of the smallfolk of Riverrun killed.

"Aside from her brother Edmure's modest retinue of friends, the lords of the Trident had remained to hold the riverlands"

Except Hoster and Edmure were never described as pompous. Those were the only lords the smallfolk of Riverrun served up to that point.

The riverlanders are part of Robb's army as exemplified by the many members of riverland houses attending the RW. Edmure would have brought some forces with him from Riverrun at least for good measure.

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He explicitly calls it too large a garrison, which is exactly what I was saying. Jaime isn't the one who decides how big a garrison Emmon should have, but Emmon and the Freys since it is their seat. The Freys gave him the garrison not Jaime.

Where is it mentioned were the Garrison comes from or that someone else gave it to them? It could just as easily come from the Lannisters seeing as both Emmon and Genna lived in the Westerlands, not the Twins.

Your original point was that they were given a larger than usual Garrison, this is infact false as we saw the Twins with a 400 man Garrison. Jaime thinks it large because the war is over, its overkill.

Failed it? They managed to drive back Tywin's men from their keeps west of Harrenhal. We are talking about the smallfolk of RIverrun not Tully bannermen. The Tullys were doing something about it.

All they did was prolong the war and the suffering of the smallfolk, and then kicked them out of Riverrun with no food. Classy.

No, they left Riverrun after the Battle of the Fords since Tywin's army was no longer there to threaten them. The Blackfish merely kicked out a few servants before the siege. The smallfolk were safer in this situation since they were now Emmon's smallfolk given he has been made the Lord of Riverrun, and the only thing they wanted was to take Riverrun for Emmon not make total war on Emmon's new seat. They owe their tillage to Riverrun, it is the basic of feudal obligations. The smallfolk likely have some food to feed themselves, and the commons are a source of food as well. They seem more likely to focus on the Frey-Lannister army at their door then the Blackfish. The Lannisters likely caused most of any foo shortage in the first place when Jaime came to Riverrun.

Jaime came with his own supplies. Now it will be ip to the Crown and the Freys to feed the smallfolk after the Tullys and Starks started a pointless war which they had no chance of winning.

That is a complete mischaracterization of the Blackfish's actions. Where does he betray them? Nothing he does could be called "betrayal."

He betrayed them. A ruling House has a duty to the wellbeing and safety of his people. The Blackfish chose his own selfish need for a vainglorious end then what was best for the Riverrun people.

Except Hoster and Edmure were never described as pompous. Those were the only lords the smallfolk of Riverrun served up to that point.

How do you know how the serving people thought of Hoster and Edmure? And I'm not sure which is a worse Lord, a pompous one or one who destroys smallfolk villages in his own lands and forces his daughter to have an abortion. Emmon is a saint in comparison.

The riverlanders are part of Robb's army as exemplified by the many members of riverland houses attending the RW. Edmure would have brought some forces with him from Riverrun at least for good measure.

Did you read the quote from the text. Cat says be brought a modest retinue. He had no need to bring Gaurds as it was his wedding day, that is why his uncle, his Captain of the Guards and Master of Arms stayed at Riverrun.

The Red Wedding was mostly Northern casualties.

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Edmure is locked up and the last surviving Darry is also a Frey.

"The common people pray for rain, health, and a summer that never ends. They don't care what games the high lords play."

They care about who pays them, if that's a Frey then some will obviously take the coin rather than starve.

You are seriously underestimating the smallfolk and taking what Jorah says way too literally. We already see the smallfolk willing to risk execution to protect the BwB and before that the Kingswood Brotherhood (It was not until AD won their trust and love did they help him - I dont see Emmon Frey being able to emulate AD in that regard).

Edmure does have their love while the Lannisters and Freys do not.

Another aspect which you do not take into account is the religious fervor of the smallfolk - especially in medieval times (and even today) people go crazy about their religion and throw away their lives without a second thought. The actions of the Freys are an affront to the old gods and the new and the sparrows and the high septon have already condemned them.

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200 is not too large. Robb leaves 400 at the Twins and apparently thousands to guard White Harbor.

Even if the Twins are the same size as Riverrun, there are two of them, dictating, that logically they must need a much larger garrison than many other castles.

As for White Harbour it is a City, thus requiring many defenders and guardsmen just to keep it ordered and defended, plus the Manderlys also have dominion over at least another 12 castles which all need a strong garrison, remember at this time it is not known who Stannis and the majority of the royal fleet is aligned with, making White Harbour the most vulnerable part of the north.

Also it wasn't really Robb's choice, if he thinks a pitiful number of men have been sent then he can probably coerce more from that bannerman, that was what Lady Dustin feared by any case, but other than that I don't think he has too much control over how many a lord contributes.

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OP: Interesting scenario.



I agree that it's one thing to want vengeance, seeing it done is quite another. RW 2.0 would provide an interesting contrast to Cat's peace speech, where she argues against "the need" for vengeance. And vengeance has never been the same as justice.





Yeah, they did: "The Tully garrison departed the next morning, stripped of all their arms and armor. Each man was allowed three days' food and the clothing on his back, after he swore a solemn oath never to take up arms against Lord Emmon or House Lannister."






Hadn't Jaime Lannister vowed never to take up arms against the Starks or the Tullys? It would be poetic justice if all those men managed to circumvent their vows somehow - I don't know, like fighting with tools instead of their (lost) arms or something.


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Where is it mentioned were the Garrison comes from or that someone else gave it to them? It could just as easily come from the Lannisters seeing as both Emmon and Genna lived in the Westerlands, not the Twins.

Your original point was that they were given a larger than usual Garrison, this is infact false as we saw the Twins with a 400 man Garrison. Jaime thinks it large because the war is over, its overkill.

It is Emmon's seat, and the Freys are expected to hold the riverlands for the time being. It is Emmon who ultimately decided number of men in Riverrun.

Funny, I don't recall anyone calling the garrison at the Twins "small," so the Twins having a garrison of 400 doesn't prove anything regarding your point. The Twins is also two castles, larger than Riverrun. Jaime said it was too large a garrison, and he doesn't mention it is because the war is over.

All they did was prolong the war and the suffering of the smallfolk, and then kicked them out of Riverrun with no food. Classy.

Jaime came with his own supplies. Now it will be ip to the Crown and the Freys to feed the smallfolk after the Tullys and Starks started a pointless war which they had no chance of winning.

He betrayed them. A ruling House has a duty to the wellbeing and safety of his people. The Blackfish chose his own selfish need for a vainglorious end then what was best for the Riverrun people.

The actions of high command were good, and managed to succeed in getting Tywin to decide to leave the riverlands. How many times do I have to say this? They left Riverrun after the Battle of the Fords. Riverrun isn't their home.

Feudal armies were poorly supplied, and foraged for supplies. Jaime didn't come to Riverrun until late into the siege. Daven and the Freys were there, and they were having food supply issues. Daven states as much saying he sends out foraging parties to keep themselves supplied. The smallfolk blame the Lannisters since they struck first.

That is really stretching it. Selfish need? That completely ignores that Jeyne and her family was with him, and he didn't know of Sybell's plot and likely assumed they would be killed given they supposedly sided against their Lannister liege lords. It is selfish to keep his king's wife and family alive? The Blackfish had no reason to trust these people after the RW, even Genna admits as much. The Frey and Lannister forces didn't come to make total war, I must repeat myself, they came to take Riverrun for Emmon, who would want his new lands to not be despoiled. The focused entirely on Riverrun.

How do you know how the serving people thought of Hoster and Edmure? And I'm not sure which is a worse Lord, a pompous one or one who destroys smallfolk villages in his own lands and forces his daughter to have an abortion. Emmon is a saint in comparison.

Did you read the quote from the text. Cat says be brought a modest retinue. He had no need to bring Gaurds as it was his wedding day, that is why his uncle, his Captain of the Guards and Master of Arms stayed at Riverrun.

The Red Wedding was mostly Northern casualties.

Well, as I already pointed, they likely didn't forget that Edmure sheltered them during the Battle of the Fords. They were also predisposed towards being loyal to Hoster. Hoster was acting against a recalcitrant bannerman, and not all his actions were moral, but those are nothing compared to the RW. Emmon wanted to hang an unarmed prisoner, and his family violated one of the oldest and most sacred vows in the land.

I doubt Riverrun can raise only a few hundred men. Edmure would have brought a tail of household men from Riverrun at least.

There were still rivermen killed.

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Totally agree with this theory.I add these:


  1. Jaime can give BWB access to Riverrun as he is the only one who can enter unsuspected.
  2. Some Riverlords will be also invited to the wedding.Catelyn can do the same she did with Tyrion:appear during the feast, show herself and call the other Tully bannermen to seize the Freys and Lannisters.The Riverlords will probably help as their hearts remain wolfish(as Jaime stated)
  3. If Cersei regains regency she will recall Lannister armies to King's Landing to ensure her seat,so the Freys will have to base on their armies(Boltons are stuck in Winderfell).
  4. If the news of Catelyn resurrection are spread, Sansa can learn her mother may be alive and try to contact her.
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This is clearly Little Fingers plan, Sansa has a claim on the North, Riverlands, The Trident, Harrenhal and is first cousins with the Lord of the Veil not to mention bethrowed to the heir. This makes her her a major player in the game of thrones if she gets herself an army

Sansa is behind Edmure and his soon to be born child in the Riverlands and even if people accepted she was LF's bastard, she still has no claim since she's illegitimate. She's the oldest female heir in the North..that's her only value.

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  • 2 weeks later...

They were also able to take Seagard with a force lead by Black Walder. I think its pretty obvious that they have recruited more men since the 4,000 supplied to Robb 3 years ago at the start of the war

They didn't take Seagard by force though. They threatened the life of Lord Jason's heir and he surrendered.

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No, it was Harrenhal as LF was made Lord of Harrenhal and liege lord of the riverlands after the BoBW before Riverrun was besieged.

Jaime explicitly calls it "too large a garrison." How much more proof do you need?

The Freys and Lannisters would have taken he food from them by force anyway, and the peasants owe their harvest to the Tullys regardless. He expelled the useless mouths from Riverrun which I wouldn't call starvation.

Brynden didn't kick them out. They didn't live in Riverrun but in there respective homes, and they left Riverrun after the Battle of the Fords was over. How many peasants do you see blaming Cat? They blame the people who attacked them preemptively, the Lannisters.

Except the person they currently serve, Emmon, is pompous, and they know he got Riverrun as a reward for the Freys' part in the RW. Genna is also a Lannister. They seem to love Edmure while the Lannisters and Freys have earned their hatred.

Do you really think they would forget their friends and relatives killed at the RW? The breaking of one of the oldest and most sacred vows in Westeros? Even in KL it is reviled. Besides, Emmon isn't offering that, but telling them basically what he expects from them as their lord, and even Jaime says Emmon is easy to feel contemptuous of and doesn't inspire loyalty. His own wife thinks he will be a terrible lord. The wedding would be in a number of months, not enough time to win loyalty over the impediment of the RW and Wo5K.

No, it was Harrenhal as LF was made Lord of Harrenhal and liege lord of the riverlands after the BoBW before Riverrun was besieged.

Jaime explicitly calls it "too large a garrison." How much more proof do you need?

The Freys and Lannisters would have taken he food from them by force anyway, and the peasants owe their harvest to the Tullys regardless. He expelled the useless mouths from Riverrun which I wouldn't call starvation.

Brynden didn't kick them out. They didn't live in Riverrun but in there respective homes, and they left Riverrun after the Battle of the Fords was over. How many peasants do you see blaming Cat? They blame the people who attacked them preemptively, the Lannisters.

Except the person they currently serve, Emmon, is pompous, and they know he got Riverrun as a reward for the Freys' part in the RW. Genna is also a Lannister. They seem to love Edmure while the Lannisters and Freys have earned their hatred.

Do you really think they would forget their friends and relatives killed at the RW? The breaking of one of the oldest and most sacred vows in Westeros? Even in KL it is reviled. Besides, Emmon isn't offering that, but telling them basically what he expects from them as their lord, and even Jaime says Emmon is easy to feel contemptuous of and doesn't inspire loyalty. His own wife thinks he will be a terrible lord. The wedding would be in a number of months, not enough time to win loyalty over the impediment of the RW and Wo5K.

Bryndens one of my favorite characters, but what he did was thoroughly contemptible. However, he wouldn't be the LP. Edmure would, and they have reason to be loyal to him. Edmure is a true knight.

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