US Politics: Another Government Shutdown Looms

[TrackerNeil]

Through all the murky political language used to pass the bill and around what the bill was, I 'm worried the dems may have handed the GOP enough smear campaign material to convince voters in 2016 the whole law was done in an unconstitutional manner and has to be repealed under that assumption. We know it wasn't, but if they get the voters on board to turn all three branches red in 2016 then whatever good this bill did is most certainly doomed.

I think repeal is a fantasy, no matter how well Republicans do at the propaganda war. No Republican Congress is going to pass a bill that takes benefits away from more than ten million Americans and upends the health care system, and no Republican president is going to sign it. It's just not politically possible.

[YoungGriff89]

I think repeal is a fantasy, no matter how well Republicans do at the propaganda war. No Republican Congress is going to pass a bill that takes benefits away from more than ten million Americans and upends the health care system, and no Republican president is going to sign it. It's just not politically possible.

Repeal most likely not, that is a little ambitious but chip away and then shift blame until it's virtually useless and people are convinced it is Obama's fault? I don't know. We know the democrats will probably apologize for that too.

[Shryke]

You are acting like having the truth on your side matters in politics.

What actually happened is pretty simple. The Democratic Party in the Senate is not as liberal or as well-whipped as you might like. As such, they had opposition to even just the ACA as it exists within their own party. The GOP had flat out refused to vote for it in a move that seems commonplace now but was at the time a surprise to many. As such, there was no leverage available against Democratic senators and alot of time was wasted chasing Republican votes that were just never going to happen. And finally, the GOP opposition took the form of a ridiculous smear campaign that the news media was more then happy to support.

What all this comes around to is that the Democrats pushing health care reform were in a shitty bargaining position and needed to compromise with the right-wing members of their own party in the Senate. They outright bribed one of them cause that was the only way to get his vote.

Single-payer or the public option just weren't feasible.

And the ACA is most definitely better then nothing.

[TrackerNeil]

Repeal most likely not, that is a little ambitious but chip away and then shift blame until it's virtually useless and people are convinced it is Obama's fault? I don't know. We know the democrats will probably apologize for that too.

I think your fears here are not well grounded. Sure, should Republicans take over Washington they'll trim subsidies here and weaken regulations there, but they won't dare to entirely do away with the law. If the enrollees were all poor and non-white, sure, but lots of middle class white people are on the exchanges. Never forget also that the entire health care industry makes a good deal of money from the ACA, and that industry will object most strenuously to any attempt to shut down the flow of money. The earliest the GOP would be in a position to repeal or significantly the ACA will be January 2017, when people have been on the exchanges for years and too much is at stake. Unless the Supreme Court does in the law, the Affordable Care Act is here to stay.

[OnionAhaiReborn]

Plus President Clinton will veto any attempt at repeal. ;)

[YoungGriff89]

I think your fears here are not well grounded. Sure, should Republicans take over Washington they'll trim subsidies here and weaken regulations there, but they won't dare to entirely do away with the law. If the enrollees were all poor and non-white, sure, but lots of middle class white people are on the exchanges. Never forget also that the entire health care industry makes a good deal of money from the ACA, and that industry will object most strenuously to any attempt to shut down the flow of money. The earliest the GOP would be in a position to repeal or significantly the ACA will be January 2017, when people have been on the exchanges for years and too much is at stake. Unless the Supreme Court does in the law, the Affordable Care Act is here to stay.

I mean as much as it helps the insurance industry you think they themselves would try a little harder to clear up misconceptions about the law and support it publicly. Let's hope you're right and I'm wrong. But onto the truth in politics lets start the movement.

#tellthetruth2014

[TrackerNeil]

One thing that's going to be interesting to watch is what position the GOP candidates take. I'm sure that Ted Cruz will say complete repeal is on the table. Will everyone? Will Jeb Bush, John Kasich, etc...take that same stance?

I realize that you're not 100% wedded to the stances you take, but it seems to me that it's also something you usually don't do with the intent of your stance being meaningless.

Corollary to all of this, I'm also curious about what stance the Dem candidates take. Will they just finesse around saying it's ok but needs some tweaks?

Yeah, I think most Democrats will take the "fix it" line. It doesn't mean anything but it sounds thoughtful.

I don't know what the hell Republicans will say. They can't support repeal but they certainly can't support the ACA, either. I imagine that during the primary they'll be required to take some stance, though. If I had to guess, they'll talk about replacing the parts of the law that no one likes -- such as the individual mandate -- while retaining the rest. Of course, they can't eliminate the mandate without jeopardizing the insurance industry, so if they get into office they could always replace the mandate with the Ronald Reagan Individual Responsibility for Health Act, which would function just as the mandate but bear the Republican brand. Then they'll go back to funding tax cuts with deficit spending.

[YoungGriff89]

Some prominent academics write in NEJM that they're seriously unsure if Obamacare can survive if SCOTUS says the subsidies can only go to the state-based exchanges.

I could see the republicans successfully getting it repealed and then shamelessly trying to re-pass it just under a different name. Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell have already kind of said they might do that.

"We want a healthcare system that lets YOU pick your plan, not Washington." - Paul Ryan. This quote was from CPAC and I don't remember what else he said besides this but something along the lines of Obamacare = socialist big government and the republicans want to do something similar but with private insurance and not government insurance.

"We want to repeal Obamacare but we can keep the website." - Mitch McConnell. He was then informed by Alison Lundergren Grimes that's what Obamacare was.

[Larry of the Lawn]

Oh, they'll keep the website, huh? My memory is a little foggy but I swear, I have this fragmented, barely-there recollection of the website being some kind of GOP obsession at one point.

[TrackerNeil]

I could see the republicans successfully getting it repealed and then shamelessly trying to re-pass it just under a different name. Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell have already kind of said they might do that.

"We want a healthcare system that lets YOU pick your plan, not Washington." - Paul Ryan. This quote was from CPAC and I don't remember what else he said besides this but something along the lines of Obamacare = socialist big government and the republicans want to do something similar but with private insurance and not government insurance.

"We want to repeal Obamacare but we can keep the website." - Mitch McConnell. He was then informed by Alison Lundergren Grimes that's what Obamacare was.

Paul Ryan says a lot, but the fact is that there is no constituency within the GOP for insurance reform, so replacement is also a fantasy. The issue is too complicated, and nobody inside the party cares enough anyway.

That being said, I don't think the health care and health insurance industries are going to sit idly by if SCOTUS rules against the government. What conservatives haven't counted on is that Disproportionate Share Hospital (DSH) funding is on its way out, to be replaced by the Medicaid expansion that was supposed to be effective in all states before the Supreme Court re-wrote the Affordable Care Act. When that happens, health care providers are going to be stuck with the bill for indigent care, and there is no way any health care system is going to cheerfully shoulder the cost of treating the uninsured. They're going to apply pressure to state governments to find a way to get the federal taps open again, and governors and legislators who resist are going to find new governors and legislators springing up to take their seats. It will be a big, red mess.

Ten years ago I would have been confident that the Supreme Court would never dare cause that kind of calamity, and although I still hold that opinion, I am...er, less confident. This is, after all, the Court that eviscerated the Voting Rights Act only five or so years after affirming it.

[awesome possum]

In, "What completely shit-brained thing has the GOP done lately" news:

The GOP-dominated House passed a bill that effectively prevents scientists who are peer-reviewed experts in their field from providing advice — directly or indirectly — to the EPA, while at the same time allowing industry representatives with financial interests in fossil fuels to have their say. Perversely, all this is being done in the name of “transparency.”

The bill changes the rules for appointing members to the Science Advisory Board (SAB), which provides scientific advice to the EPA Administrator. Among many other things, it states: “Board members may not participate in advisory activities that directly or indirectly involve review or evaluation of their own work.” This means that a scientist who had published a peer-reviewed paper on a particular topic would not be able to advise the EPA on the findings contained within that paper. That is, the very scientists who know the subject matter best would not be able to discuss it.

Yep, that's right. Scientists who have written papers and dedicated years of study to a subject are not allowed to advise the EPA but lobbyists can, as long as they can prove they're not scientists.

Another large step towards becoming a nation fully pledged to idiocy.

[Inigima]

This shit is why I could never vote GOP even if I agreed with them philosophically.

[TrackerNeil]

For those who think Republicans are strategic geniuses, check out the latest. Republicans forced a Saturday session so they could throw an immigrantion tantrum, and...

Without the ability to leave for the weekend, Reid instead began the process of bringing 20 long-stalled nominations to a vote, including Obama’s nominee for surgeon general, Vivek Murthy, who was a target of groups like the powerful National Rifle Assn. over his advocacy for stricter gun laws. Shortly after noon the Senate began the first of what could be 40 procedural votes that could lead to confirming all the nominees by the end of the week.

What a nice way for Republicans to celebrate their upcoming majority! I really must remember to put Mitch McConnell on my holiday card list; he does give gifts you'd never buy yourself.

[Inigima]

For those who think Republicans are strategic geniuses, check out the latest. Republicans forced a Saturday session so they could throw an immigrantion tantrum, and...

What a nice way for Republicans to celebrate their upcoming majority! I really must remember to put Mitch McConnell on my holiday card list; he does give gifts you'd never buy yourself.

Ahahaha

[IheartIheartTesla]

This is the person who Alan Dershowitz said was a certifiable genius (off the charts smart).

[Shryke]

In, "What completely shit-brained thing has the GOP done lately" news:

Yep, that's right. Scientists who have written papers and dedicated years of study to a subject are not allowed to advise the EPA but lobbyists can, as long as they can prove they're not scientists.

Another large step towards becoming a nation fully pledged to idiocy.

And that's just one of the dozens of horrible horrible things in the horribly named CRomnibus bill.

That has passed the House and the Senate.

[Wise Fool]

It'd be like if they passed legislation such that teachers wouldn't be allowed to grade papers because of conflict of interest.

[BloodRider]

It'd be like if they passed legislation such that teachers wouldn't be allowed to grade papers because of conflict of interest.

Shhhhh. Don't give those bastards any ideas.

[Fez]

For those who think Republicans are strategic geniuses, check out the latest. Republicans forced a Saturday session so they could throw an immigrantion tantrum, and...

What a nice way for Republicans to celebrate their upcoming majority! I really must remember to put Mitch McConnell on my holiday card list; he does give gifts you'd never buy yourself.

Ted Cruz and Mike Lee forced it (unanimous consent is a hell of a thing), not Republicans as a whole. McConnell, Graham, and McCain were all publicly extremely pissed off about it.

And as for Cruz, its hard to say if he's a genius or not yet. The thing to always remember is that he's not using the usual political math. He doesn't care if he helps Obama or hurts Republican interests, all he cares about is positioning himself as the standard bearer for the far right and using that to launch a presidential bid. If it works and he gets into the White House, then he is a genius, because he figured out something new about the voters; which is that perception is so much more important than reality that it helps to actively hurt your own policy interests if you can die-on-the-hill while it happens. That's a level of showboating and voter ignorance that hadn't previously been reached.

[Commodore]

Cruz doesn't do arm twisting or glad handing or quid pro quos.

He finds ways to pressure colleagues to act on (1) their campaign promises and (2) what their constituents want.

This annoys his colleagues to no end.

He never singles out any GOP senators for criticism, but they malign him constantly (this speaks well of him).

Warren wanted to amend the CR was well, but she made no effort to fight for it (I'm guessing Cruz would have pushed for a vote on her amendment if she did the same, but she chickened out).