Stannis Pink Letter Confirmed?

[Monctonvike]

I don't think Stannis would want the wall in chaos. Even if he was desperate. The logical thing would be to say its Ramsay with bad info/ or playing trick. Something really tells me it is Mance though, I don't think he cares about the watch he wants to open the gates to more wildlings and do his own thing. I also think he is intrested in the crypts.

GRRM wrote the pink letter - It is known

(sry couldn't resist)

[RobertRivers]

I am of the mind that Roose ran out of leeches and all his bad blood and passion is boiling up, so upon hearing that his bastard is dead, he wrote the letter to jon so he can destabilize the nights watch, thus making it easier for his buddies, aka 'the others" to breach the wall and give him reinforcements to deal with Stan the man.

I know what I'm saying is quite a stretch, but i think there's more to his harrenhal occupation that meets the eye ( the curse, Qyburn and the burning of the book).

[Hippocras]

I am of the mind that Roose ran out of leeches and all his bad blood and passion is boiling up, so upon hearing that his bastard is dead, he wrote the letter to jon so he can destabilize the nights watch, thus making it easier for his buddies, aka 'the others" to breach the wall and give him reinforcements to deal with Stan the man.

I know what I'm saying is quite a stretch, but i think there's more to his harrenhal occupation that meets the eye ( the curse, Qyburn and the burning of the book).

At least as plausible as any other option so far. Each proposal has its problems really.

1. Ramsay: Problem is inconsistent style and claims. Not written in blood on flayed skin for one.

2. Stannis: Why would he want to cause chaos at the Wall and where did he get ravens for the Wall?

3. Mance: His objective is....? Based on....? How did he get ravens, how did he not get caught, and why would he make the demands in the letter?

4. Roose: Stretch of a theory involving alliance with the Others.

[Mithras]

lol wrong thread.

[Hippocras]

so....you are proposing Davos wrote it? Confused.

[Westerosi Coast Gangster]

Mance wrote the letter, I would bet on it.

[Hippocras]

lol wrong thread.

Yes, I did have the thought that would be useful on the Small Council thread. ;)

[Ser Brandon Badwater]

Seems a bit too sneaky a thing for Stannis to do and why ask for some of those in the letter? Apart from Ramsay the only other actual name in the letter is Mance Rayder. The wording seems wildlingish, the letter is not written on human skin or in blood so not Ramsay. So must be Mance imo. Have to wait till TWOW to see what his agenda is though

[Talking Hodor]

Nah, Mance wrote the letter. He refers to the Nights watch as crows, to himself as the King-beyond-the-Wall, Val as a wildling princess, and his own son as a prince. Ramsay would never have used those words, nor the word bastard. Mance, on the other hand, thinks Jon's a bastard for betraying him.

The wildlings under Tormund are of course going to support Jon Snow's desire to march on Winterfell so that they can rescue their King-beyond-the-Wall. Tormund might be illiterate, but he's smart enough to pick up on the pro-wildling terminology in the letter.

For Mance, it's win-win. If Jon comes, he'll get safe passage back to the Wall, if Jon doesn't come, the wildlings will tear the crows apart, as we're about to see in the very next book. Either way, Stannis and Bolton are screwed, fArya and Theon are out of his reach, and Mance is probably waiting out the turmoil in the crypts of Winterfell along with whichever spearwives may have survived the escape plan.

[Talking Hodor]

At least as plausible as any other option so far. Each proposal has its problems really.

3. Mance: His objective is....? Based on....? How did he get ravens, how did he not get caught, and why would he make the demands in the letter?

His objective is to get a Crow escort back to the wall, since his rescue mission was taken as far to completion as he could. It's entirely possible that he or one of his spearwives can warg ravens, or he just dashed up to the rookery during the turmoil at the castle. He's probably riding out the storm in the crypts of Winterfell at the moment with a couple spearwives to keep him warm.

[Vikingkingq]

The "crow" thing is not good evidence. There's examples of non-wildlings calling the Night's Watch crows.

[bemused]

Here's some objections I have to what's been written so far..

I think it wrong to ignore the hints we've been given that would suggest Bran or Bloodraven could fly one of the Winterfell ravens to Castle Black.

1) We see that they can inhabit pretty well any raven they choose, and switch from one raven to another.

2) BR is probably certain to be inhabiting Mormont's raven, which follows both Mormont and then Jon well away from the wall, and seems to act under someone's direction at Jon's election (unless you think it was in the kettle by coincidence). This suggests BR and Bran can fly a raven where they want it to go. ( We've seen ravens possibly following Arya and Sam ,as well.)

3) Bran has been watching developments through the WF heart tree (and would have seen Theon's conversations with the spearwives just before the escape).

4) There are many ravens in WF, and there was a raven pecking at the corpse of one of the sacrificed men just before Theon and Jeyne were brought to Stannis' camp.

5) This raven could have overseen and evesdropped on any conversations Asha may have had with Alysanne or any other northerner after Theon was taken to Stannis... and could have come into reasonably close proximity with Tybald's ravens when they were taken to Stannis.

So I think to assume those ravens can only fly to WF is disregarding a distinct possibility... Bran is not supposed to be able to communicate at all through the trees, either... And until this TWOW Theon chapter, we haven't seen ravens other than Mormont's raven that are able to spontaneously utter words that relate to conversations going on around them... Now we see two doing it at once (but we know that Bran is considered to have very great natural /magical ability)..

Of course Stannis would not want to cause chaos at the wall, but he can't be aware of the potential for chaos. Stannis doesn't know about all Tormund's people coming through the wall. (And neither do Mance, Ramsay or Roose.) Stannis could know about the ships sent to Hardhome, but not any further plans. (Jon doesn't hear from Cotter Pyke until Alys and Sigorn's wedding feast, and Tyco had already left the wall.)

It's true that the content of the letter poses problems for each of the candidates for author. But I think that the letter has been intercepted by the conspirators against Jon and altered / forged / added to. Then the content of the letter makes more sense. They do want all those "hostages" sent away from the wall, they do want to cause problems for Jon, make him seem responsible for sparing Mance , goad him into leading the NW against Winterfell, etc ... hopefully,to try to provide some excusability for themselves ,following their planned assassination.

I'm sure assassination was their plan , but they didn't plan to have to do it when they did. Jon threw a spanner in their works by deciding to take only wildlings to confront Ramsay. ( and no, I don't think he was actually going to go to WF, but intercept Ramsay on his way to CB)

[Ghosts Lunch]

I think that Ramsay may attempt to sneak into Stannis's camp for several reasons:

(1) Murdering Stannis will kill off the Northern resistance without having to fight a battle against a commander who is known to be extremely able in battle.

(2) He obviously can't just walk in to the camp himself, the ONLY way he will get in is in disguise as a defector.

(3) He will have a personal reason to want to find his bride and his Reek.

(4) He is already known for usage of disguise.

(5) He has a chance of success since neither Stannis nor anyone else in the camp knows what the real Ramsay looks like. (Unless Theon reaches Stannis and is allowed to live - a thing which, therefore, he must find out: Theon in Stannis's hands is potentially dangerous to the Boltons. Even if he doesn't kill Stannis he must kill Theon before Theon can talk further.)

Further evidence:

Theon believes that Ramsay will come for Stannis, NOT remain inside Winterfell. The Manderly and Frey armies are also coming: they are not under Ramsay's command, and neither is any threat to Stannis (the Freys because they are under a stupid commander, and in any case will be assaulted by the Manderlys before they even reach Stannis): and the Manderlys because, well, Wylis - who commands them, while Wyman is back in Winterfell - is on Stannis's side, and will surrender or defect at once.

Obviously Ramsay cannot approach Stannis openly: and it would be useless for him to attempt to do so with an army, since he does not HAVE an army of his own, and Stannis has the more defensible military position (assuming that Ramsay does NOT stay in Winterfell): so if Ramsay brings an army against Stannis for open battle, he will be crushed. Therefore, if he is coming at all, it is not to bring open battle. Therefore the only thing he can bring to the party is stealth, subterfuge, assassination, treachery.

He does NOT know that the Karstarks have been forestalled, and may believe that he will find assistance there.

Found this a little odd, you know the Karstarks have got outed, but don't seem to know Theon has already reached Stannis and started spilling the beans (to his Sister at least)

Well this really is not true, because the Northern resistance has absolutely nothing to do with Stannis. Opposition to rule by those involved with the Freys and the Red Wedding does not in any way imply they are loyal to or fighting for Stannis.

on point 2, We are already in agreement he would get in disguised if he wanted to get in at all, but I dispiuted two rather flawed assumptions: 1 that he wanted to get into the camp at all, and 2: that there are any "defectors" he could possibly hide among. He can't hide among men who know him and do not want him there. This goes for all of Manderly's forces, and meanwhile, the Karstarks were caught. So Ramsay simply can't sneak in as you propose.

You point about Theon believing Ramsay would come is interesting, but that is far from the only possible interpretation of the text. Theon never actually said he thought Ramsay would come. He simply said Ramsay was the most dangerous of the three opponents.

His comment is clearly a sarcastic one. He's mocking Robert's ridiculous reputation.

It has everything to do with Stannis. Until he came along the mountain clans were doing absolutely nothing, the remnants of Rodrik's army were milling about the Wolfswood, the Mormonts were lurking on a beach somewhere, the Glovers were out of a castle, and the fisherfolk, hillmen, crofters, displaced villagers, etc, weren't fighting anyone. Stannis is the one that united these people and turned them into a force capable of ousting Roose.

I have the distinct impression that while the Clansmen are following Stannis to "save Neds daughter", we learned through Asha's POV that after taking Deepwood Motte a lot of northerners just magically turned up and couple themselves to Stannis's army, eg the Mormonts who burned Asha's boats despite the fact that a letter had been sent denying fealty, hard not to have the sense that they have coupled or piggybacked themselves to Stannis's army not out of allegiance or fealty but to join in the ousting of the Boltons from Winterfell, we can tell from Asha chapters they don't have much time for the Southrons or more specifically the R'hlorr worship customs but I do think they are happy to be under the guiding hand of a capable military commander (which they have been without since Ser Rodrik was killed)

[Joe Pine]

Here's some objections I have to what's been written so far..

I think it wrong to ignore the hints we've been given that would suggest Bran or Bloodraven could fly one of the Winterfell ravens to Castle Black.

1) We see that they can inhabit pretty well any raven they choose, and switch from one raven to another.

2) BR is probably certain to be inhabiting Mormont's raven, which follows both Mormont and then Jon well away from the wall, and seems to act under someone's direction at Jon's election (unless you think it was in the kettle by coincidence). This suggests BR and Bran can fly a raven where they want it to go. ( We've seen ravens possibly following Arya and Sam ,as well.)

3) Bran has been watching developments through the WF heart tree (and would have seen Theon's conversations with the spearwives just before the escape).

4) There are many ravens in WF, and there was a raven pecking at the corpse of one of the sacrificed men just before Theon and Jeyne were brought to Stannis' camp.

5) This raven could have overseen and evesdropped on any conversations Asha may have had with Alysanne or any other northerner after Theon was taken to Stannis... and could have come into reasonably close proximity with Tybald's ravens when they were taken to Stannis.

So I think to assume those ravens can only fly to WF is disregarding a distinct possibility... Bran is not supposed to be able to communicate at all through the trees, either... And until this TWOW Theon chapter, we haven't seen ravens other than Mormont's raven that are able to spontaneously utter words that relate to conversations going on around them... Now we see two doing it at once (but we know that Bran is considered to have very great natural /magical ability)..

Of course Stannis would not want to cause chaos at the wall, but he can't be aware of the potential for chaos. Stannis doesn't know about all Tormund's people coming through the wall. (And neither do Mance, Ramsay or Roose.) Stannis could know about the ships sent to Hardhome, but not any further plans. (Jon doesn't hear from Cotter Pyke until Alys and Sigorn's wedding feast, and Tyco had already left the wall.)

It's true that the content of the letter poses problems for each of the candidates for author. But I think that the letter has been intercepted by the conspirators against Jon and altered / forged / added to. Then the content of the letter makes more sense. They do want all those "hostages" sent away from the wall, they do want to cause problems for Jon, make him seem responsible for sparing Mance , goad him into leading the NW against Winterfell, etc ... hopefully,to try to provide some excusability for themselves ,following their planned assassination.

I'm sure assassination was their plan , but they didn't plan to have to do it when they did. Jon threw a spanner in their works by deciding to take only wildlings to confront Ramsay. ( and no, I don't think he was actually going to go to WF, but intercept Ramsay on his way to CB)

Hi, maybe I haven't read that chapter closely enough but, I thought that the pink letter is passed to Jon by one of the NW but without reference to how it got there.

Bear in mind that Sam has gone and with recent events at castle black tending to Ravens isnt a priority

[bemused]

Hi, maybe I haven't read that chapter closely enough but, I thought that the pink letter is passed to Jon by one of the NW but without reference to how it got there.

Bear in mind that Sam has gone and with recent events at castle black tending to Ravens isnt a priority

I agree with your first statement , but anyone (and any character) would assume the letter came by raven, because that's the normal state of affairs. ... and I think a letter did arrive, most likely from Ramsay, Mance or Stannis (Stannis, in my opinion), and was recieved as usual by Clydas.

For reasons too lengthy to detail here (I have detailed them on many another thread) I think Thorne is secretly back at CB and is the brains behind Bowen's conspiracy against Jon. I think the letter was seized from Clydas, read and re-copied, adding more insults, threats, more blame for Jon and demands for more hostages. The letter is then resealed with a smear of the original wax and given back to Clydas to deliver to Jon. (Whoever wrote the original, the conspirators would have accepted it as being from Ramsay.)

Clydas may have always been part of the conspiracy, but he's rather a meek individual and therefore susceptible to coercion and bullying .. and he's very afraid when delivering the letter. (He couldn't blurt out the truth to Jon because Mully is present - and Mully is part of the conspiracy.)

One of the more amusing hints : if you're aware of the "Ides of Marsh" Julius Caesar analogy, Brutus (Bowen) was not the actual leader, Cassius (Thorne) was. In Shakespeare's play, Cassius forges letters to acheive his aims.

Stannis has birds (see details above) and a terrified Dreadfort maester who would probably have some pink wax, and would know Ramsay's signature well enough to forge a reasonable facsimile. The conspirators would only need to copy it.

Tending the ravens is as much a priority as it ever was ( that's the main means of communication). Clydas is in charge of them , as he was when Mormont led his ranging . ... What has not been happening since Sam left, is scouring the book vaults for info on the Others and historical data . No-one else has been down there since then, as far as we know, but we do know Sam discovered a little sleeping / hiding cell down there before he left..and Bowen knows the wormways like the back of his hand.

A perfect place for Thorne to be lurking.

[Poète Lauréat]

Val as a wildling princess

The only people who refer to her as a princess is Stannis and his Wife. Wildlings don't use a monarchical system. You need to prove you're a leader among them. Mance would never write this.

[Hippocras]

The only people who refer to her as a princess is Stannis and his Wife. Wildlings don't use a monarchical system. You need to prove you're a leader among them. Mance would never write this.

I agree. I don't buy the Mance theory really at all. I think it is even more full of holes than the rest of the options.

I do, however, think it is plausible that the Letter was part of the Watch conspiracy against Jon. It would make far more sense than Mance writing it.

[Ladywhiskers]

No, the 'Stannis wrote it' theory is bollocks.

It was Rams, maybe with some help from Mance.

But if Stannis didn't write it, then what is he doing with the blood and the quill pen? Seriously, something has to have been happening in that scene, and I think it really is that Stannis has gotten just enough info out of Theon and a few others to be able to write that letter. Why? I don't know. But if he's not doing that in the Theon scene then what on earth could he possibly be doing? He's sending a raven. To whom is he sending it, if not to the Wall? The only other possibility is that he is sending it to Winterfell, pretending to be Jon, saying "I have Arya and Reek at the Wall," perhaps in hopes of splitting Ramsey's fighting force in half?

[Hippocras]

But if Stannis didn't write it, then what is he doing with the blood and the quill pen? Seriously, something has to have been happening in that scene, and I think it really is that Stannis has gotten just enough info out of Theon and a few others to be able to write that letter. Why? I don't know. But if he's not doing that in the Theon scene then what on earth could he possibly be doing? He's sending a raven. To whom is he sending it, if not to the Wall? The only other possibility is that he is sending it to Winterfell, pretending to be Jon, saying "I have Arya and Reek at the Wall," perhaps in hopes of splitting Ramsey's fighting force in half?

If Stannis sent a raven he sent it to Winterfell, not the Wall.

[Mithras]

But if Stannis didn't write it, then what is he doing with the blood and the quill pen? Seriously, something has to have been happening in that scene, and I think it really is that Stannis has gotten just enough info out of Theon and a few others to be able to write that letter. Why? I don't know. But if he's not doing that in the Theon scene then what on earth could he possibly be doing? He's sending a raven. To whom is he sending it, if not to the Wall? The only other possibility is that he is sending it to Winterfell, pretending to be Jon, saying "I have Arya and Reek at the Wall," perhaps in hopes of splitting Ramsey's fighting force in half?

Why should he put his family and the NW into a great danger like that? And why should Jon write such a thing and send it to the Boltons?