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Varys – Not Gregor – Murdered Aegon VI…


Slayer of Lies

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…and then he replaced him with a puppet of his own making.



Not sure if this one’s ‘been done’ before.



Either way, at first this theory may sound like complete bat shit covered in tinfoil (which is better than the alternative, at least), but I believe it plays well with the overall plot arc, and – at the moment – I think is actually quite plausible.



Perhaps the Red Viper said it best:



“Men are seldom as they appear. You look so very guilty that I am convinced of your innocence. Still, you will likely be condemned. Justice is in short supply this side of the mountains.”



“Exec Summary” of Supporting Evidence



In regards to Gregor’s alleged guilt:



· WOIAF gives rise to the potential for speculation that Elia’s and Aegon’s death is possibly still an unsolved mystery


· Gregor’s alleged guilt is widely known, although not to Maester Yandel, and ostensibly not to Gregor either, until Oberyn mentions it


· Gregor’s confession of guilt regarding Elia’s and Aegon’s death is suspicious in its authenticity and/or verifiability


· Tywin’s confession to Tyrion that he sent Gregor to kill Aegon has holes in it, and does does not provide absolute proof that Gregor did the deed


· In summary, there is no actual proof anywhere in ASOIAF that I can find that Gregor actually killed Aegon and Elia; sure, there is a ‘mountain of evidence,’ but that doesn’t necessarily seal the deal



In regards to Varys’ means and motive, and the significance to the story of this alternate possibility:



· Varys’ murder of Kevan shows that he is willing to commit regicide for the cause of elevating “Aegon” to power, real or fake


· Varys’ murder of Kevan leaves a trail to an alternate suspect; in this case Tyrion (but this act could qualify as potential exposition, or a potential clue regarding Aegon’s alleged murder)


· Varys may have orchestrated that Elia and Aegon remain in King’s Landing during the sack so he could kill them himself, or somehow ensure their death


· If Gregor murdered Aegon, Varys is only capitalizing on the coincidence of Aegon’s murder, where – if Varys did it – Varys’ plan to put his own “cloth dragon” on the throne precedes Robert’s Rebellion, and solidifies Varys’ and Illyrio’s plans (whatever they may be) existed well before Robert’s Rebellion (translation: cleaner, and arguably better storytelling)



Spoiler tags added to save space.



Widely Whispered Knowledge of Gregor's Guilt



After years of taking Gregor’s confession of the guilt of Aegon’s murder for granted, my new speculation began with reading a passage in WOIAF, in

The End:



It is not known who murdered Princess Rhaenys in her bed, or smashed the infant Prince Aegon’s head against a wall. Some whisper it was done at Aerys’s own command when he learned that Lord Lannister had taken up Robert’s cause, while others suggested that Elia did it herself for fear of what would happen to her child on the hands of her dead husband’s enemies.

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How does this fit into Aegon being a Blackfyre? Or just some Valyrian descendant that Varys & Illyrio raised as Aegon.



Aegon & Jon Connington (along with everyone else in the GC) may believe Aegon to be the trueborn son of Rhaegar...but Varys & Illyiro could have just said he was...but in reality he is either a Blackfyre through the female line or just a Valyrian with the features as an infant.


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How could "a puppet of his own making" be a baby? How would crafting replacement Aegon be any different to crafting real Aegon?

I could be misinterpreting, but I don't believe that line of questioning is directly tied to the thinking behind this theory...

If Aegon is fake, as most appear to think, and if Varys wants fAegon on the throne, as he expresses to Kevan in Dance, then why not carry the intent of this plan back to prior to Robert's Rebellion to including swapping Aegon deliberately, instead of simply relying on someone else to murder Aegon? Point being, I suppose: Varys wants "Aegon" in power - real or fake - so he likely either would have arranged for his kidnapping or replaced him himself, no? To me, capitalizing on Gregor's murder of Aegon is a bit 'coincidental', and makes Varys a bit less of a 'mastermind'. But the story certainly doesn't rely on this hinge alone. It's just an idea I thought I'd pitch.

If you believe Aegon is the real deal, then this theory may not make as much sense.

Although, if JonCon's been raising Aegon since he was a little kid - real or not - this plan already stretches back a long way. What's a couple more years and a murder?

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How does this fit into Aegon being a Blackfyre? Or just some Valyrian descendant that Varys & Illyrio raised as Aegon.

Aegon & Jon Connington (along with everyone else in the GC) may believe Aegon to be the trueborn son of Rhaegar...but Varys & Illyiro could have just said he was...but in reality he is either a Blackfyre through the female line or just a Valyrian with the features as an infant.

What do you mean 'fit in'?

The only thing being proposed is that Varys may have killed Aegon himself instead of Gregor. So all other elements would be in play, if this theory is true.

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Lot of problems with that theory. Firstly your standard of evidence being a first person account of the murder is way to high. If you apply that same standard to the rest of the story than we might as well believe anything is possible. Also when you do get a first hand account, from the murderer, you arbitrarily disregard it.



You have the confession of the guy who did it, accounts of Gregor and Lorch scaling the Red Keep, Tywin confessing that he sent him to do it. What more do you want?



Also Aegon was with his mother so did Varys also rape and butcher Ellia? If so what was Gregor doing this whole time?



Furthermore, the purpose of the Kevan murder is to keep the realm in chaos, having it link back to Tyrion is just another way to drive Cersei mad.


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Weak. No, I do not see the alleged holes in Tywin's telling of the story. The "everybody thinks it's Gregor, but Gregor isn't aware of that" angle just isn't plausible. Bottom line, I ain't even intrigued.

Again, the impetus of this idea was that - if Gregor murdered Aegon, as you believe is firmly stated in the text without room for doubt - then Varys is simply capitalizing on the coincidence of Aegon's murder, instead of the self-orchestration.

I'd believed this for years as well, but am open to alternatives, and Varys being behind the whole thing all along is an interesting angle to consider.

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I know this isn't true.


  1. Clegane not knowing who he is talking about was,(IMO), him not remembering them. He didn't give a rat's ass he killed him let alone remember there names. After a minute or two of fighting he realized what he was talking about.
  2. Why the hell would Tywin lie about ordering the deaths to Tyrion?
  3. All believable stories have inconsistencies. A few things transcend all the stories. The mountain did it, armory did it, Elia was raped and butchered, Aegon's head was smashed, and Rhaenays was killed.

In conclusion this doesn't make sense.


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Lot of problems with that theory. Firstly your standard of evidence being a first person account of the murder is way to high. If you apply that same standard to the rest of the story than we might as well believe anything is possible. Also when you do get a first hand account, from the murderer, you arbitrarily disregard it.

You have the confession of the guy who did it, accounts of Gregor and Lorch scaling the Red Keep, Tywin confessing that he sent him to do it. What more do you want?

Also Aegon was with his mother so did Varys also rape and butcher Ellia? If so what was Gregor doing this whole time?

Furthermore, the purpose of the Kevan murder is to keep the realm in chaos, having it link back to Tyrion is just another way to drive Cersei mad.

Gregor's "firsthand account" isn't proof, and no one else ever suggests Elia's face was smashed in.

I'm not saying Gregor wasn't there. I'm saying the reader wasn't in the room. And I believe that standard of evidence applies to the series at large, which is one of the things that gives these books such tremendous replay value, IMO. We can read the exact same thing and come to very different conclusions.

Yes, there are problems with Varys' "rape" of Elia, in that - perhaps - he'd have to use an implement of some kind, and - yeah - where was Gregor?

I don't know.

I just know that when I went looking for actual proof that Gregor murdered Aegon and Elia, I found bits of evidence suggesting that it was possible he didn't, which lend further plausibility to the idea that Varys could be the mastermind behind the replacement of Aegon, to include pinning his murder on a suspect that would sew discord in the realm.

Otherwise, Aegon's murder is just a happy coincidence benefiting whatever it is that Varys and Illyrio have been planning since the moment it took place.

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Gregor's "firsthand account" isn't proof, and no one else ever suggests Elia's face was smashed in.

I'm not saying Gregor wasn't there. I'm saying the reader wasn't in the room. And I believe that standard of evidence applies to the series at large, which is one of the things that gives these books such tremendous replay value, IMO. We can read the exact same thing and come to very different conclusions.

Yes, there are problems with Varys' "rape" of Elia, in that - perhaps - he'd have to use an implement of some kind, and - yeah - where was Gregor?

I don't know.

I just know that when I went looking for actual proof that Gregor murdered Aegon and Elia, I found bits of evidence suggesting that it was possible he didn't, which lend further plausibility to the idea that Varys could be the mastermind behind the replacement of Aegon, to include pinning his murder on a suspect that would sew discord in the realm.

Otherwise, Aegon's murder is just a happy coincidence benefiting whatever it is that Varys and Illyrio have been planning since the moment it took place.

What would constitute proof for you if a confession from both the murderer and the guy who ordered isn't enough?

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What would constitute proof for you if a confession from both the murderer and the guy who ordered isn't enough?

Being "in the room", a first person POV narrative arc or memory, perhaps some exposition or a quote from GRRM on the matter.

Tyrion also confessed, but we have the backstory to secure his innocence through the details in his POV.

By itself, a confession is just a confession, which is evidence, not proof.

In any event, it's clear the idea of Gregor's guilt is a well entrenched foregone conclusion. And I expected some backlash to this idea.

But I still like the idea that Varys is behind Aegon's "death," as opposed to an innocent benefactor of it. And the idea that Varys might be behind Aegon's murder was strange to me too, at first. Utter bullshit, even.

But it gained more appeal over weeks of research, rereading, and digging for quotes, and now I'm open to both possibilities - the one I'd accepted for the past 14 years (Gregor's guilt), and the one that occurred to me about a month ago (Varys').

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^this.

I think I understand this line of questioning better now than before...

As I see it, Varys and Illyrio have plotted to put "their" Aegon in place for a long time, either since the moment of his death, or before it. And, In fact, it ONLY makes sense to murder the real Aegon if the plan is to replace him.

Otherwise, why not simply let him live send him to Essos with Dany and Viserys?

Instead, to remove attention from him before replacing him, they'd opt to "kill" him... So the real Aegon is either dead, or his death was faked.

And, since I'm in the camp that believes he's a fake, most likely either a Blackfyre or some other Valyrian, it is necessary for the real Aegon to be dead in order to replace him with an "Aegon" of Varys' and Illyrio's desired makeup, concordant with whatever their mysterious long game is.

After all, as has been suggested a couple times now, why not simply keep the real one alive? At present, I don't believe we have the answer to that outside of, "they didn't want to," or else Varys would have spirited him away to safety, as he did with Gendry, Tyrion, and others of royal blood.

Or, of course, Gregor did it. Case closed.

But I'm suggesting it may not be as simple as all that, and the deeply entrenched idea that Gregor did it may not be the case...

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Some comments on your theory, which is way to long to quote here:



The Red Vipers quote was made in a specific context. Not applicable here. (I realize you are not offering it as evidence, just saying).



Perhaps Maester Yandel doesn't mention it because he understands that recounting the attrocities of the current regime would be a career limiting move?



The Mountain has raped and murdered a lot of people. A LOT of people. This is a man who is known for his brutality and is employed by Tywin specifically for that reason. We are also told the he "quaffs milk of the poppy as other men quaff ale". Also, he's not the sharpest tool in the shed. The fact that he does not have instant recall of Elia's death (over a decade before) is no great riddle in need of cypherin'. Vary's on the other hand, does not have any of these qualities. On bare probability alone, Gregor is the much better suspect. In addition, as you noted, there is a "mountain of evidence" pointing to Gregor.



You point out that Tywin was not a witness. There are no witnesses supporting the Varys theory either. If you are going to cite the former as evidence, you have to accept the latter as well. This conversation (Tywin's confession) would have also been a prefect opportunity for the author to provide proof of your theory. Tywin revealing that Lorch reported that Elia and/or the babe were already dead when they arrived but Tywin dismisses it as sentimental guilt or something.

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Being "in the room", a first person POV narrative arc or memory, perhaps some exposition or a quote from GRRM on the matter.

And why are you applying that standard to this case?

There's dozens of things that we don't have an in the room view of especially when we are talking about stuff that happened before the series.

Seems to me you want to view Varys as the orchestrator of everything, when there is no reason to think that, so you're applying an impossibly high standard of proof to this case.

Once again, we have a confession from the murdered, corroborated by a confession of the guy who ordered the murder, and eye witness accounts of Gregor and Lorch entering the building where the murders happened, and Gregor's long history of rape and child murder. That would be good enough for a court how is that no sufficient for you?

Furthermore, the guy you're purposing as the culprit doesn't exactly fit the MO. Yeah he shot a grown man with a cross brow, not exactly bashing a babies head against the wall then raping and murdering his mother.

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Some comments on your theory, which is way to long to quote here:

The Red Vipers quote was made in a specific context. Not applicable here. (I realize you are not offering it as evidence, just saying).

Perhaps Maester Yandel doesn't mention it because he understands that recounting the attrocities of the current regime would be a career limiting move?

The Mountain has raped and murdered a lot of people. A LOT of people. This is a man who is known for his brutality and is employed by Tywin specifically for that reason. We are also told the he "quaffs milk of the poppy as other men quaff ale". Also, he's not the sharpest tool in the shed. The fact that he does not have instant recall of Elia's death (over a decade before) is no great riddle in need of cypherin'. Vary's on the other hand, does not have any of these qualities. On bare probability alone, Gregor is the much better suspect. In addition, as you noted, there is a "mountain of evidence" pointing to Gregor.

You point out that Tywin was not a witness. There are no witnesses supporting the Varys theory either. If you are going to cite the former as evidence, you have to accept the latter as well. This conversation (Tywin's confession) would have also been a prefect opportunity for the author to provide proof of your theory. Tywin revealing that Lorch reported that Elia and/or the babe were already dead when they arrived but Tywin dismisses it as sentimental guilt or something.

Yep. All this outlines the commonly accepted "truth" that Gregor killed, which I think is plain as day to most readers, and easy to cling to as well. Such was my own singular stance for quite some time, and is generally accepted as common knowledge

I'm merely offering an alternative here, which may yield witnesses and/or exposition later.

As such, Varys could be taking advantage of Gregor's widespread reputation, since - clearly - no one would doubt that a brutalizing of Elia and Aegon in the manner performed could be anyone other than Gregor.

Yet the result is beneficial for two parties. For Tywin and the other Lannisters, no one would question Aerys' former Hand's loyalty to his new Baratheon King. For Varys, an opportunity to hide away and later preent a dragon of his own making, and one to help take the throne back at the time of Varys' choosing. Not to mention, someone else to blame for the deed who no one would doubt.

And, again, if Gregor did it, Varys is merely capitalizing on a coincidence, where - if Varys did it - this will go to show that his master plan precedes Robert's Rebellion.

I believe that GRRM has been plotting Aegon's "return" since he wrote the "cloth dragon" vision into the HOTU.

If Varys is to blame for the murder, however, this would mean that GRRM had been plotting Aegon's return since AGOT, which - IMO - the story benefits from, because it would tie one of the chief events of the collapse of KL after Robert's Rebellion as being orchestrated by one of the series' most mysterious "bad guys", meaning the ties would date back to the beginning of the series instead of being thunk up along the way.

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Gregor's "firsthand account" isn't proof, and no one else ever suggests Elia's face was smashed in.

I'm not saying Gregor wasn't there. I'm saying the reader wasn't in the room. And I believe that standard of evidence applies to the series at large, which is one of the things that gives these books such tremendous replay value, IMO. We can read the exact same thing and come to very different conclusions.

Yes, there are problems with Varys' "rape" of Elia, in that - perhaps - he'd have to use an implement of some kind, and - yeah - where was Gregor?

I don't know.

I just know that when I went looking for actual proof that Gregor murdered Aegon and Elia, I found bits of evidence suggesting that it was possible he didn't, which lend further plausibility to the idea that Varys could be the mastermind behind the replacement of Aegon, to include pinning his murder on a suspect that would sew discord in the realm.

Otherwise, Aegon's murder is just a happy coincidence benefiting whatever it is that Varys and Illyrio have been planning since the moment it took place.

Is the state of Elia's skull really important? Given the Mountains infamy, is it really that hard to believe? This is trivial.

Varys used an ad hoc dildo because why not. (?)

The final sentence makes no sense at all. Aegons murder was a coincidence with the plan that was orchestrated in response to his murder?

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And why are you applying that standard to this case?

There's dozens of things that we don't have an in the room view of especially when we are talking about stuff that happened before the series.

Seems to me you want to view Varys as the orchestrator of everything, when there is no reason to think that, so you're applying an impossibly high standard of proof to this case.

Once again, we have a confession from the murdered, corroborated by a confession of the guy who ordered the murder, and eye witness accounts of Gregor and Lorch entering the building where the murders happened, and Gregor's long history of rape and child murder. That would be good enough for a court how is that no sufficient for you?

Furthermore, the guy you're purposing as the culprit doesn't exactly fit the MO. Yeah he shot a grown man with a cross brow, not exactly bashing a babies head against the wall then raping and murdering his mother.

So you don't agree and/or don't like theory. Got it.

I just think the door to other possibilities may be open wider than that, and I haven't yet found a quote that satisfies the level of evidence I would need to close that door.

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