TallTyrion Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 So you don't agree and/or don't like theory. Got it.I just think the door to other possibilities may be open wider than that, and I haven't yet found a quote that satisfies the level of evidence I would need to close that door. If your level of evidence is a POV character in the room when it happened then you will never be able to "close that door" everyone that was there is dead and Varys isn't a POV character. So even if Varys confessed to the murder, that wouldn't prove he did it since a confession is not proof according to your standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slayer of Lies Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 The final sentence makes no sense at all. Aegons murder was a coincidence with the plan that was orchestrated in response to his murder?It's a spin on an idea put forth in the OP.Either the impetus for Varys' idea to replace Aegon with a fake was based entirely on the coincidental fact that Gregor had recently killed Aegon (which is the commonly accepted logic, I believe).Or Varys orchestrated Aegon's murder with a plan to replace him later, which adds a couple more years of "intention" to Varys' plan.Most believe the former. I proposed the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deadlines? What Deadlines? Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Re reading this, a lot of the "evidence" is really speculation. This does not seem plausible to me, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slayer of Lies Posted December 24, 2014 Author Share Posted December 24, 2014 If your level of evidence is a POV character in the room when it happened then you will never be able to "close that door" everyone that was there is dead and Varys isn't a POV character. So even if Varys confessed to the murder, that wouldn't prove he did it since a confession is not proof according to your standards.I don't know that my philosophical burden of proof is that high, and a confession from Varys would clearly turn the tables, not to mention shock the average reader.I'm also not debating your Logic, as I've spent 14 years believing all the points you've raised for all the obvious reasons.I'm merely proposing another scenario here. Either one that's in play, or one that's the result of too much time in between publication dates, like most of the theories on these boards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TallTyrion Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I don't know that my philosophical burden of proof is that high, and a confession from Varys would clearly turn the tables, not to mention shock the average reader.I'm also not debating your Logic, as I've spent 14 years believing all the points you've raised for all the obvious reasons.I'm merely proposing another scenario here. Either one that's in play, or one that's the result of too much time in between publication dates, like most of the theories on these boards. So when it's a confession that you like you will believe it, but when Gregor and Tywin confirm the story we already know to be true you disregard it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dorian Martell Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Between Gregor's confession to Oberyn and Tywin's explanation to Tyrion as to why men like Gregor and Lorch are needed, there is nothing left to consider. The man who did it says "I did it" and the man who's watch it happened under said "As a ruler you need men who will do horrible things like that from time to time." Boom, done. That is a fair amount of work you punt into the theory I will give you that. I am not sure what can be said to convince you other than the guy who did it and the guy who ordered it talking about it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Sapna Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Gregor's "firsthand account" isn't proof, and no one else ever suggests Elia's face was smashed in.If Gregor admitting murdering Elia isn't proof that he murdered her I don't know what is.Yes, there are problems with Varys' "rape" of Elia, in that - perhaps - he'd have to use an implement of some kind, and - yeah - where was Gregor?Are you actually serious? There are enough holes in the idea that varys would kill a baby to replace it with a baby. Why on earth would he rape Elia with an implement? Varys isn't just a mastermind now he's a sadist and eunuch rapist? Give over. I just know that when I went looking for actual proof that Gregor murdered Aegon and Elia, I found bits of evidence suggesting that it was possible he didn't, which lend further plausibility to the idea that Varys could be the mastermind behind the replacement of Aegon, to include pinning his murder on a suspect that would sew discord in the realm. Otherwise, Aegon's murder is just a happy coincidence benefiting whatever it is that Varys and Illyrio have been planning since the moment it took place.See in the book nobody has asked the mountain to his face no. If your now suggesting the mountain was framed by varys. What? So by lucky coincidence Gregor was climbing the red keep ordered to murder aegon then Gregor found them already dead with a big copper dildo up Elia and never mentioned this to Tywin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aemond's Eye Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Even if - Gregor was innocent, he certainly knew that it his guilt was spoken about throughout the realm. He's a brute - he doesn't live underground. He isn't going to immediately admit it to Oberyn during their duel, as his job is to defeat Oberyn so that nobody can prove that he - and by extension Tywin - raped Elia and killed Aegon. (Lorch being responsible for Rhaenys.)We know that Tywin gave the order to murder the children as he acknowledges this, in private, when speaking to Tyrion. Maester Yandel isn't going to actually write about Tywin's involvement though, as he's originally writing a history for King Robert I Baratheon and then for King Tommen I Baratheon. That's why the preposterous "poor, grief stricken Elia did it" theory is mentioned. Given that Tywin himself acknowledges that he gave the order and that in hindsight Elia needn't have been harmed, and that Clegane and Lorch were too brutal, why would we consider The Mountain innocent? We'd need to presume that Tywin never spoke to him after, and that Gregor would never have told him that he wasn't the one who bashed in Aegon's brains. The latter seems unlikely given that the realm holds Tywin responsible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTitansFoot Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Man that's a long post! My coffee was cold by the end!!! Gregor raped and killed Elia, it is known. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Illyrio+varys forever Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Here are other things that we don't have the POV of those who did (or watched it) it so it probably never happened;1.LF killing Jon Arryn2. Aerys trying to burn KL3.Joffrey sending the dagger to Bran4.a lot of characters deaths5.R+L=J6.a lot of characters aren't bastards 7.Mel giving birth to the shadow baby who killed Renly8.the bastard latter was written by Sam9. Shae slipping with Tywin10.Loras is not gay11.Tysha wasn't a whore12.Joffrey was Poisoned I think I made my point clear :smoking: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooded Lady Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 I think Master Yandels knowledge of the subject at hand ought to be questioned considering that his account of Rhaenys' death has her in the wrong bedchamber.Also, if Varys wanted everyone to think the legit Aegon was dead, why wouldn't he leave his face recognizable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chacho_88 Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 nah i don't seem to much validity in this theory, i didn't read much of what you read, well i only read some of the beginning and then your "proof" from the trial of combat against red viper, but you say that Gregor would recognize the name because he was sent to rape and murder her, and direct orders on the latter, but from what i remember reading, and i could be wrong since been awhile, he was not sent on orders to kill elia, tywin says that that was ill done and that she could have been a useful hostage or something, that he didn't have time to tell gregor exactly what he wanted, so gregor was just there because he likes killing and raping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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