You Know Stabbing, Jon Snow

[DigUpHerBones]

Lady Stoneheart and her crew appear...she sees all that Jon has become and done at the wall, in addition to Robbs "missing" letter, and comes to the realization he is the only one left worthy of the Stark name and their only hope...she does her thing as Lord Beric did for her, revives him, and leaves Robb's letter on the table...Stoneheart does not come back , Jon does.

Goes on to realize he is the "song" of Ice (Lyanna) and Fire (Rheagar), negotiates peace once again with the Others to take on the TRUE threat, Ms Daenerys "Stormborn" Targaryen...

[Watermelon Knight]

The Wildlings are the best choice to man the wall against the Others. Except for a few rangers the Night's Watch are inexperienced with the Others, yet the Wildlings have been battling the Others for years. Hell most of the NW don't even realize the threat posed by the Others because they are so filled with hate for Wildlings.

My guess is John's corpse is put on ice by the NW. Marsh or some other cretin is made the 999th Lord Commander, but in actuality commands nothing because Tormund and the Wildlings will control the Wall.

Mel will need great cunning to stay alive given how she's treated the Wildlings's Gods.

In the last third of TWOW, maybe even the last chapters, Mel will finally resurrect Jon while the Others attack the wall and all hope seems lost. Her story arc will involve her maddeningly slow realization that Jon Snow is AA. In Jon's/AA's last chapter, he will become the 1000th Lord Commander of the NW.

Of course AA will be reborn too late to stop the Others from surging into the South. Westeros will be saved only after Daenerys and Jon hook up and deploy dragon flame against the Others. But before dragons can fight the Others, there must be one more Dance of The Dragons. Alas, the second Dance of The Dragons is a tale for Book 7 and 8. :P

[Harry the Hair]

Alas, that will be for Book 7 and 8. :P

Is there gonna be a book 8? I was hoping against hope that he could keep it at 7 since he now writes like 1 book every 7 years.

[Watermelon Knight]

Is there gonna be a book 8? I was hoping against hope that he could keep it at 7 since he now writes like 1 book every 7 years.

In interviews Martin doesn't sound very confident about finishing his Song of Ice and Fire in two books. I'll post citations when I get home....

Edit:

Empire Online chat (2014):

how are you going to finish it in just two books?

Two BIG books. 1500 manuscript pages each - that's 3000 pages. I think I have a good shot.

ELF Fantasy Fair (April 20, 2002):

He said that in his original plan (when he wanted to write a trilogy) the Red Wedding would take place in book one, and Dany's landing in Westeros in book two. Now he says that Dany's arrival in Westeros will take place in book 5, A Dance with Dragons.

Dany's arrival in Westeros is always one book away, with yet another book after her arrival to drive home all the plot lines.

I love A Song of Ice and Fire, but I'm under no illusions: it will remain an unfinished work no matter how many books Martin adds to it.

[Ser Archibald Haddock]

Is there gonna be a book 8? I was hoping against hope that he could keep it at 7 since he now writes like 1 book every 7 years.

He was hard at work on the writing yesterday at the Super Bowl, watching two teams he doesn't even support. I have it on good authority that he tore himself away from the Katy Perry halftime show and secreted himself in the bowels of the stadium for 20 minutes, where he dashed off one complete sentence of a Theon chapter. That's 23 words closer to finishing!

[Harry the Hair]

He was hard at work on the writing yesterday at the Super Bowl, watching two teams he doesn't even support. I have it on good authority that he tore himself away from the Katy Perry halftime show and secreted himself in the bowels of the stadium for 20 minutes, where he dashed off one complete sentence of a Theon chapter. That's 23 words closer to finishing!

This is both incredibly funny and sad.

[DeathYon]

I'm going to go with scenario three as the most likely.

This gets me very excited for TWOW, it's gonna be a real shit storm :fencing:

[mbuehner]

I'm going to suggest throwing all three scenarios in a blender and coming up with this:

Tormund and Ghost secure Jon's bleeding body and escape CB with the other principles, leaving the Wall to Marsh and his boys. The Others then show up and blow the Horn of Winter (total Chekhov's Rifle right?) bring down the wall and bury the disloyal Nights Watch left atop it.

[Watermelon Knight]

If this Horn of Joramun really exists, my money is on it being at the Citadel with Samwell. It is the broken horn from the cache of obsidian discovered by Ghost.

But I don't think it exists. The wall is overrun by Others after the Night's Watch flounders.

[SerPenguin]

He was hard at work on the writing yesterday at the Super Bowl, watching two teams he doesn't even support. I have it on good authority that he tore himself away from the Katy Perry halftime show and secreted himself in the bowels of the stadium for 20 minutes, where he dashed off one complete sentence of a Theon chapter. That's 23 words closer to finishing!

Whats your point exactly? Does he have to work every single minute of every day?

[Watermelon Knight]

Sounded like snark to me.

[Jon Flow]

I am a horrible human being. I want Jon to be dead for good... R+L=J gets debunked. Howland Reed shows up and makes an off-handed comment about how Willa was a big girl and Eddard was just embarrassed... Hence all the secrecy.

[Ser Archibald Haddock]

Whats your point exactly? Does he have to work every single minute of every day?

That's pretty silly, no one's saying that. I'm aware that discussing GRRM's writing habits and the time taken to write TWOW is a contentious topic but I think it's fair to be somewhat disenchanted with his efforts, or what I know of them. Of course no legally binding contract exists between GRRM and his readers, but I would argue that an implicit one does exist (if somewhat nebulous) and comes into being when you commit to writing a multi-volume series. Certainly a contract exists between GRRM and his publisher for the final two(?) books.

What's frustrating is the wild variance in output re the first three vs last two books. This despite the help GRRM has on tap with the good folks who run this website, people who can assist with the donkey work of chronology and continuity. GRRM is well aware of the need to crack the whip - he has talked about the show catching up, about how he's over the hump with his AFFC/ADWD timeline, about not writing an episode for S5 to concentrate on the book etc.

I've read a lot of profiles of writers over the years and one common characteristic seems to be the need for writing discipline - getting up every day and pumping out words, whether good or bad. GRRM has also talked about how he can only write under very limited conditions - it has to be at his home i.e. he can't write on the road or in hotels; how he has to use his old WP software; and various other limitations. He probably also requires a waxing Moon and Mars to be in the cusp of Uranus. In his own words:

"Writer's block isn't to blame here, it's distraction. In recent years, all of the work I've been doing creates problems because it creates distraction,” Martin explained. “Because the books and the show are so popular I have interviews to do constantly. I have travel plans constantly. It's like suddenly I get invited to travel to South Africa or Dubai, and who's passing up a free trip to Dubai?"

Given all this, it seems to me that he has almost gone out of his way to avoid writing by embarking on lengthy tours to festivals, conventions, fan gatherings, TV promo stops etc etc. No one is begrudging him his chance to enjoy the spoils of success but at some point you really need to just stay put and write. Take the Superbowl - I know he loves his footy but he also doesn't support either of the teams that played, so why go? That's another couple of days away from his precious writing environment and for what? How about watching it on telly instead? How about finishing TWOW this year and rewarding yourself with a SB trip next year?

The show starts again in a few months and you can bet your bottom Braavos coin that he'll show up at all the premiere events once more, eager to mix with the young and the gorgeous. And that's fine … but if you're already late on the next book, you acknowledge that you have to write quicker, and you can't write longhand in a hotel room, then be prepared for some snark from long-suffering fans.

That is all.

[Talking Hodor]

Could the waters between bear island and the far north freeze over during the winter and the others stroll across?

If I were an icy being that froze everything I touched, I'd just walk across the water and watch it turn solid beneath my feet. I'm guessing the wights and others can go right past the wall without any problems other than physics. It's probably just that one weirwood gate that they can't pass due to magic. They couldn't enter the three-eyed raven's magic cave, but they sure could swarm all around it.

I'm guessing the only thing holding the Others back all this time was the size of their undead army and the weather conditions in the south. Plus wights probably suck at climbing. Now that full-blown winter is upon us and now that they've zombified everyone at Hardhome, the war can begin and the wall can be bypassed.

[QuoththeRaven]

There's going to be some sort of Mexican standoff I believe and the biggest factor will be how Melisandre will play it as I see her being the only one that could maintain the status quo.

For example, whilst the Night Watch spend days choosing their new leader, she (and her Queens men) will enforce that the Wildlings should stay as previously planned until the new LC decides what to do, and her troops will keep both sides from coming to conflict.

We know Tycho is on his way to the wall with Jeyne Poole/Fake Arya so with that info I can't see the Wall being in too much turmoil when they arrive.

Tycho is on his way back to Braavos, and as suggested by Jon initially, Melisandre could send fArya with him due to the volatile conditions for her own safety sue to Jon's death. It would be huge for the story if both fake Arya and the real Arya end up at the same place.

So that's one big ramification of what could happen due to Jon's stabbing.

[QuoththeRaven]

Lady Stoneheart and her crew appear...she sees all that Jon has become and done at the wall, in addition to Robbs "missing" letter, and comes to the realization he is the only one left worthy of the Stark name and their only hope...she does her thing as Lord Beric did for her, revives him, and leaves Robb's letter on the table...Stoneheart does not come back , Jon does.

Goes on to realize he is the "song" of Ice (Lyanna) and Fire (Rheagar), negotiates peace once again with the Others to take on the TRUE threat, Ms Daenerys "Stormborn" Targaryen...

Not sure how serious this is, but it is mostly that if Jon is revived, it will be Mel helping him from Ghost's body back to his own, likely in the Weirwood grove he took his NW vows. No doubt there will be an extended period of time that Jon is notJon and so when he comes back he will be very changed.

[Talking Hodor]

I've read a lot of profiles of writers over the years and one common characteristic seems to be the need for writing discipline - getting up every day and pumping out words, whether good or bad. GRRM has also talked about how he can only write under very limited conditions - it has to be at his home i.e. he can't write on the road or in hotels; how he has to use his old WP software; and various other limitations. He probably also requires a waxing Moon and Mars to be in the cusp of Uranus.

I keep having this recurring nightmare that GRRM's 30+ year-old word processor goes tits up and loses all progress on Winds of Winter. Seriously, it's time to upgrade to a new word processor and start schlepping a laptop around on all these trips he takes. If TWoW doesn't appear this year, there is no way he's finishing the books before the TV show. I think most people's impatience at this point stems from the ever-increasing likelihood that we'll be seeing a heavily abridged ending on TV rather than reading it in detail in a book. If GOT had never existed, or had started years later, the fan agitation would be a bit less.

[Watermelon Knight]

Well Martin's creative process is what works for him so I don't see how we have the right to question it. I have issues with his editing decisions in ADWD, but I believe those choices are unrelated to the tools and setting he prefers for writing.

Part of it is simply that he's growing old. His mind isn't what it was back when he began ASOIAF. He says so himself. Add all the distractions from fame and the creative process suffers. Skipping the Superbowl isn't going to change all that.

[Monctonvike]

....so in every scenario the Queens men die or get overrun. Is it at least not possible that they head somewhere or do somethig. We have Selyse, Shireen and PF and Mel. IMO There seems to be quite a bit to PF, Mel and Shireen that we have yet to see.

[Tannim]

Was just thinking about Jon's experience with pointy ends, and am trying to think of the different scenarios that follow. Honestly, before now I had only thought about what happens to Jon, but not about the plot in general.

Here are a couple of thoughts about what is born out of Jonny-goes-dead-dead:

• SCENARIO 1: Bowen Marsh and his coalition take over. Tormund and his men either fight to the death or retreat (south of the Wall, of course) to regroup. The Queen's Men are killed or captured...with Marsh doing some of the deed. Always a doubter of Jon and Stannis, he decides to honor the letter's requests and sends Selyse/Shireen/Mance's babe (actually Gilly's babe) down towards Winterfell. If Stannis and/or the Northern bannermen have taken charge of Winterfell by then, be ready for a Night's Watch disbanding, complete with bonus Stannis hangings! The problem with this is, as their host is nearly arrived to Castle Black, the Others come a knockin'.

• SCENARIO 2: Others. Cornhole. Everyone. This is a very plausible next step, as the entire series has been building towards an Others invasion for quite a while. Think about it:
  • Jaime POV: Snowing in the Riverlands
  • Kevan POV: Snowing in King's Landing
  • Jon's last POV, last sentence: This quote, as many others have noted on this site, may be a coincidence but may be a sign of the Others preparing for an attack:

• SCENARIO 3: Tormund's men, along with a piecemeal group of Night's Watchmen who were pro-Jon, manage to put down both Bowen's men and the Queen's men. Mostly through killing, but also some through capture. Tormund manages to safeguard Jon's body (I'm assuming he'll still be alive, but still reserving the thought that he could be dead). The Others eventually find a way to invade, but not in the beginning of TWOW.

I'd goes with S2, a complete fubar or near epic proportions, with a touch of 3 thrown in. Since two big battles are said to start Winds, there will be time for a bit of infighting between Free Folk, Night's Watch and Queen's Men for control of the Wall. The immediate focus is on Jon's Ceasar imitation, and the fallout. Initial chaos, plus a giant on a rage, CB drops into factions fighting, till everyone is squared off. Personal sense the wildlings led by Val grabs Jon's body and does a runner in the confusion. This would cause further chaos, as the question hangs over all, is the Lord Commander dead or alive? No leader for the NW, no unifying force to direct FF/NW, or keep a lid on the Queens Men. A chapter or three of this, as wildings leave the Wall/NW for the south, no LC, Mel doing gods knows what, and the horn blows three times. We get a doomed last stand defense of the Wall for more chapters via Mel's POV, till the Wall fails, and everyone runs for their lives south. I have more detail, but thats a rough summery theory, that's make for some cracking fun narrative to read.