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R+L=J v.123


Jon Weirgaryen

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This version of R+L=J contains a complete rewrite of the reference guide and faq, including numerous discussions about the truthfulness and relevance of what it says. Most elaborate on the topic of Targaryen polygamy.

Reference guide

The R+L=J theory claims Jon Snow most probably is the son of crown prince Rhaegar Targaryen and Ned's sister Lyanna Stark.

The Tower of the Hand has an excellent analysis of this theory:
Jon Snow's Parents

And Westeros' Citadel also provides a summary:
Jon Snow's Parents

A Wiki of Ice and Fire:
Jon Snow Theories

Frequently Asked Questions:

How can Jon be a Targaryen if ordinary fire burned his hand?

Targaryens are not immune to fire. It's a myth that has been refuted by a list of Targaryens being burned. Danaerys 'the unburnt' was indeed unscathed when she hatched the dragon eggs, but that has not stopped her being burned on other occasions. See this thread on Targaryen fire immunity.

Don't all Targaryens have hallmark Valryian silver-golden hair and purple eyes?

Not all of them: Valarr and Queen Alysanne had blue eyes. Bittersteel, who like Jon was half first men blood, had brown hair. Baelor Breakspear and his son(s) and Jon's own half-sister Rhaenys had the Dornish look (dark hair, black eyes, olive skin). Rhaenyra Targaryen's three sons all had brown hair and brown eyes even though both their parents had light silver-gold hair.
Had Jon Valyrian features, it would give his parentage away: "He had the Stark face if not the name: long, solemn, guarded, a face that gave nothing away. Whoever his mother had been, she had left little of herself in her son." Tyrion got the bit about the mother wrong, though: his mother was the Stark.

If Jon isn't Ned's son, then why does he look so much like him?

Jon looks very like Arya, and Arya looks very like Lyanna. Jon is Ned's nephew, and Lyanna and Ned looked similar.

Ned is too honourable to lie. If he says Jon is his son, doesn't that mean he must be?

Ned tells Arya that sometimes lies can be honourable. His final words, a confession of his guilt, are a lie to protect Sansa. While a lie can be honourable, cheating on his wife isn't, so Ned's famed honour points to Jon not being his son.


How can Jon be half-Targaryen and have a direwolf?

He's also half Stark, through Lyanna. Ned's trueborn children are half Tully and that doesn't stop them having direwolves.

Why doesn't Ned ever think about Lyanna being Jon's mother?
Ned doesn't think about anyone being Jon's mother. If he did, there would be no mystery. He names 'Wylla' to Robert, but we do not see him thinking of Wylla being Jon's mother.

There's a hidden hint at who Jon's mother might be: In chapter 4, Eddard's internal monologue goes "Lyanna ... Ned had loved her with all his heart." and in chapter 6, Catelyn thinks "Whoever Jon's mother had been, Ned must have loved her fiercely".

Why would Ned not at least tell Catelyn?

We don't have a list of what Ned promised to Lyanna, but know he takes his promises seriously. Maybe he promised not to tell anyone. In Chapter 45, Ned is uncertain what Cat would do if it came to Jon's life over that of her own children. If Catelyn knew that Jon was Rhaegar's son, she might feel that keeping him at Winterfell presented a serious risk to her own children. Ultimately, Catelyn did not need to know, so maybe Ned simply chose to be on the safe side.

Doesn't Ned refer to Robb and Jon as "my sons“ in the very first chapter?

In speech, not in thought. Ned is keeping Jon's parentage secret. He never thinks of Jon as his son: In Chapter 45, Ned thinks of his children "Robb and Sansa and Arya and Bran and Rickon“ and explicitly excludes Jon from the list. ADwD Chapter 34 has Bran's vision of younger Ned in the Winterfell godswood: "...let them grow up close as brothers, with only love between them," he prayed, "and let my lady wife find it in her heart to forgive..." which not make sense if they are brothers.

Since Rhaegar was already married, wouldn't Jon still be a bastard?

He might, or might not. There was a tradition of polygamy among Targaryens in the past, so the possibility that Rhaegar and Lyanna married is not easily ruled out. A pro-legitimacy argument is this: The presence of the three kingsguards at the Tower of Joy is best explained if they were defending the heir to the throne, which Jon would only be if he was legitimate.

Can we be certain polygamy is not illegal?

Aegon I and Maegor I practised polygamy. In Westeros, unlike a constitutional monarchy, royals are not subject to the law. So if there ever was a law against it, it did not apply to the Targaryens: In Chapter 33 it says "like their dragons the Targaryens answered to neither gods nor men". Examples demonstrate that it was considered an option for Targaryens: Aegon IV and Daemon Blackfyre may have considered it for Daemon, Jorah Mormont suggested it to Daenerys as a viable option, and she said the same about Quentyn Martell.
George R.R. Martin says in this SSM: "If you have a dragon, you can have as many wives as you want". There is also this SSM predating the worldbook.

On Polygamy essay by Ygrain with additions by Rhaenys_Targaryen

Weren't the Kingsguard at Tower of Joy on the basis of an order from Aerys, to guard Lyanna as a hostage?

If so, why would they have apparently made no effort to use this leverage against Robert and Ned? Some argue their Kingsguard vows would have taken precedence and still have required them to leave the Tower to protect Viserys when he became heir -- unless there was another that took precedence [Jon]. Others think they were guarding Lyanna as a hostage at the Tower of Joy. Some say that makes little sense: She would better be kept hostage at King's Landing, and wouldn't require kingsguards to guard her. The mere presence of three kingsguards implies something more important: guarding members of the royal family or maybe the heir.
Frequently suggested readings: At the tower of joy by MtnLion and support of the toj analysis by Ygrain

Isn't there an SSM that says the 3 Kingsguard were following Rhaegar's orders though?

The SSM you may be thinking of is probably this: The King's Guards don't get to make up their own orders. They serve the king, they protect the king and the royal family, but they're also bound to obey their orders, and if Prince Rhaegar gave them a certain order, they would do that. They can't say, "No we don't like that order, we'll do something else."

We know from Barristan, protecting the king is the first and most important of all kingsguard duties. Jamie suggests some other KG to stay with the king when he wants to leave for the Trident and we also learn of a ritual that is performed when all KG meet and the king is guarded by someone who is not from the order.

"Protect vs Obey" is an ongoing subject of debate that is unlikely to be settled until we know more. Either viewpoint is compatible with R+L=J.

Wouldn't Viserys take precedence anyway? Rhaegar died without becoming king, and doesn't the world book call Viserys, not Aegon, Aerys' new heir?

No, in the case of an eldest son dying before the king dies, a grandson comes before a younger son. Even in the case the grandson is yet unborn at the time of death, he would succeed (heir apparent vs. heir presumptive). The world book is written with a Lannister bias (it may be propaganda to undermine Dornish support for the Targaryens) and in hindsight by maesters who have never learned all of what we know from Ned's dreams and memories. If it still turns out to be true... see the next answer.

Are matters of succession just as clear as presented here?

Succession quarrels are a part of medieval power play and even a very clear inheritance could well be contested. So maybe in King's Landing things did happen as the world book says. Rhaegar and Aerys may have been at odds over the succession. Rhaegar told Jaime before leaving for the Trident that he intended to call a council, and The Great Councils of the past have dealt with matters of succession. Who would have accepted such a change is a question worth asking.

Ned is dead. Who's going to tell anyone about it?

Bloodraven and Bran may have learned of it through the weirwood network. Benjen might know. Checkov's Crannogman Howland Reed is the sole survivor of the encounter at the Tower of Joy, and George R.R. Martin has stated he has not yet appeared because he knows too much about the central mystery of the book. "They had found him [Ned] still holding her [Lyanna's] body" tells that there also was someone else besides Howland to find Ned.

Why is this important? What impact can it have on the story?

The careful way the mystery of Jon's parentage was created is reason to believe it's important. What impact it will have on the rest of the series is still unknown.

This theory is too obvious and too many people believe it to be fact. How can it be true?

It is not so obvious to the majority of readers. Some will get it on their first read, but most will not. Readers who go to online fan forums, such as this, still represent a very small minority of the readership. Also, A Game of Thrones has been out since 1996. That's more than 18 years of readers being able to piece together this mystery. Crowd-sourced internet-based mystery solving like this inevitably make solved mysteries seem more obvious in hindsight.

George R.R. Martin is a "breaker of tropes“, there can be no hidden prince, it's simply too cliché.

In order to break a trope it needs to be installed in the first place. It is yet unknown what will happen to Jon in the future. Being the son of Lyanna and Rhaegar does not imply the fairy-tale style happy ending associated with the hidden prince trope.

Is there a list of all R+L=J clues that have been found?
There is a list of R+L=J hints, clues and foreshadowing compliled by sj4iy.

Since this theory has been refined so well, will Martin change the outcome of the story to surprise his fans?

He has stated that he won't change the outcome of the story just because some people have put together all the clues and solved the puzzle.

eta: you have been reading the new and updated faq as it has been discussed in the current thread from here to there (updated!) and possibly beyond.


If you like to read what the now outdated faq had to say, you find it in the spoiler below:

Frequently Asked Questions:

How can Jon be a Targaryen if he has a burned hand?
Targaryens are not immune to fire. Aerion Brightflame died drinking wildfire. Aegon V and his son Duncan are thought to have died in a fire-related event at Summerhall. Rhaenyra was eaten by Aegon II's dragon, presumably roasted by fire before the dragon took a bite. Viserys died when he was crowned with molten gold. Dany suffered burns from the fire pit incident at the end of A Dance with Dragons. Finally, the author has stated outright that Targaryens are not immune to fire. Jon's burned hand does not mean he is ineligible to be part Targaryen. For more information about the myth of Targaryen fire immunity, see this thread.

How can Jon be a Targ if he doesn't have silver hair and purple eyes?
Not all Targaryens had the typical Valyrian look. Alysanne had blue eyes. Baelor Breakspear and his son(s) had the Dornish look. Some of the Great Bastards did not have typical Valyrian features. Jon's own half-sister Rhaenys had her mother's Dornish look.

If Jon isn't Ned's son, then why does he look so much like him?

Much is made over the fact that Arya looks like Lyanna, and Jon looks like Arya. Ned and Lyanna shared similar looks.

How can Jon be half-Targ if he has a direwolf?
Ned's trueborn children are half Stark and half Tully. Being half Tully didn't prevent them from having a direwolf so there is no reason to think being half Targaryen would prevent Jon from having a direwolf. If Lyanna is his mother, then he's still half Stark. Furthermore, there is already a character who is half Targaryen and half blood of the First Men and was a skinchanger: Bloodraven.


Since Rhaegar was already married, wouldn't Jon still be a bastard?
The evidence that Jon is legitimate is that Targaryens have a history of polygamous marriages which makes it a possibility that Rhaegar had two wives. Three Kingsguards were present at the Tower of Joy when Ned arrived. Even after Ned said that Aerys was dead and Viserys had fled to Dragonstone, the Kingsguard opted to stay at the Tower of Joy stating they were obeying their Kingsguard vow. The heart of a Kingsguard's vow is to protect the king. With Aerys, Rhaegar and Aegon dead, the new king would have been Viserys, unless Lyanna's child was legitimate making him the new king of the Targaryen dynasty. For a comprehensive analysis of Jon's legitimacy, see the detailed explanations in the two linked articles.

But polygamy hadn't been practiced in centuries, is it still even legal?
It seems the practise of polygamy among Targaryens was never made illegal. Aegon I and Maegor I practised polygamy. It is rumoured that Aegon IV and Daemon Blackfyre considered it as an option for Daemon, and Jorah Mormont suggested it to Dany as a viable option. Daenerys later made the same statement against Quentyn Martell. There is also this SSM predating the worldbook.


Weren't the Kingsguard at Tower of Joy on the basis of an order from Aerys, to guard Lyanna as a hostage?
Aerys was sane enough to realize how taking someone hostage works even at the end of the Rebellion, and he would hardly miss the opportunity to bring Ned and Robert in line any time after the situation started to look really serious. Furthermore, regardless of on whose order the Kingsguard might have stayed at Tower of Joy, they would still be in dereliction of their duty to guard the new king.

Frequently suggested readings: At the tower of joy by MtnLion and support of the toj analysis by Ygrain

This theory is too obvious and too many people believe it to be fact. How can it be true?

The theory is not obvious to the majority of readers. Some will get it on first read, most will not. Keep in mind that readers who go to online fan forums, such as this one, represent a very small minority of the A Song of Ice and Fire readership. Also, A Game of Thrones has been out since 1996. That's more than 18 years of readers being able to piece together this mystery.

Why doesn't Ned ever think about Lyanna being Jon's mother?

Ned doesn't think about anyone as being his mother. He says the name 'Wylla' to Robert, but does not actively think that Wylla is the mother. He also doesn't think of Jon as his son. There are numerous mysteries in the series, and Jon's parentage is one of those. If Ned thought about Jon being Lyanna's son, it would not be a mystery.

Why should we care who Jon's parents are? Will Jon care? Who cares if he's legitimate?

Once one accepts that the evidence is conclusive and that Jon's parents are Rhaegar and Lyanna and that he is most probably legitimate, these become the important questions.

Since this theory has been refined so well, will Martin change the outcome of the story to surprise his fans?
No, he said he won't change the outcome of the story only because some people have put together all the clues and solved the puzzle.


Previous editions:

Please click on the spoiler below to reveal links to all previous editions of this thread.

Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread” (thread one)

Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread” (thread two)

The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon thread (Part III)” (thread three)

The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon thread (Part IV)” (thread four)

The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread (Part V)” (thread five)

The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread (Part VI)” (thread six)

The Rhaegar + Lyanna = Jon Thread Part VII” (thread seven)

The Rhaegar + Lyanna = Jon thread, Part VIII” (thread eight)

The Rhaegar + Lyanna = Jon thread, Part IX” (thread nine)

The Rhaegar + Lyanna =Jon Thread, Part X”(thread ten)

The R+L=J thread, part XI” (thread eleven)

The R+L=J thread, part XII” (thread twelve)

R+L=J Part XXIII” (thread thirteen)

R+L=J Part XXIV” (thread fourteen)

R+L=J XXV” (thread fifteen)

R+L=J v.16” (thread sixteen)

R+L=J v.17” (thread seventeen)

R+L=J v.18” (thread eighteen)

R+L=J v.19” (thread nineteen)

R+L=J v.20” (thread twenty)

R+L=J v.21” (thread twenty-one)

R+L=J v.22” (thread twenty-two)

R+L=J v.22a” (thread twenty-two (a))

R+L=J v.23” (thread twenty-three)

R+L=J v.24” (thread twenty-four)

R+L=J v.25” (thread twenty-five)

R+L=J v.26” (thread twenty-six)

R+L=J v.27” (thread twenty-seven)

R+L=J v.28” (thread twenty-eight)

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R+L=J v.34” (thread thirty-four)

R+L=J v.35” (thread thirty-five)

R+L=J v.36” (thread thirty-six)

R+L=J v.37” (thread thirty-seven)

R+L=J v.38” (thread thirty-eight)

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"R+L=J v.60" (thread sixty)

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"R+L=J v.66" (thread sixty-six)

"R+L=J v.67" (thread sixty-seven)

"R+L=J v.68" (thread sixty-eight)

"R+L=J v.69" (thread sixty-nine)

"R+L=J v.70" (thread seventy)

"R+L=J v.71" (thread seventy-one)

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"R+L=J v.80" (thread eighty)

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"R+L=J v.87" (thread eighty-seven)

"R+L=J v.88" (thread eighty-eight)

"R+L=J v.89" (thread eighty-nine)

"R+L=J v.90" (thread ninety)

"R+L=J v.91" (thread ninety-one)

"R+L=J v.92" (thread ninety-two)

"R+L=J v.93" (thread ninety-three)

"R+L=J v.94" (thread ninety-four)

"R+L=J v.95" (thread ninety-five)

"R+L=J v.96" (thread ninety-six)

"R+L=J v.97" (thread ninety-seven)

"R+L=J v.98" (thread ninety-eight)

"R+L=J v.99" (thread ninety-nine)

"R+L=J v.100" (thread one hundred)

"R+L=J v.101" (thread one hundred one)

"R+L=J v.102" (thread one hundred two)

"R+L=J v.103" (thread one hundred three)

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"R+L=J v.107" (thread one hundred seven)

"R+L=J v.108" (thread one hundred eight)

"R+L=J v.109" (thread one hundred nine)

"R+L=J v.110" (thread one hundred ten)

"R+L=J v.111" (thread one hundred eleven)

"R+L=J v.112" (thread one hundred twelve)

"R+L=J v.113" (thread one hundred thirteen)

"R+L=J v.114" (thread one hundred fourteen)

The "[TWoIaF Spoilers] R+L=J" threads were used to openly discuss spoilers from TWoIaF at the time we needed to protect that information.

"[TWoIaF Spoilers] R+L=J v.1"

"[TWoIaF Spoilers] R+L=J v.2"

"[TWoIaF Spoilers] R+L=J v.3"

"R+L=J v.115" (thread one hundred fifteen)

"R+L=J v.116" (thread one hundred sixteen)

"R+L=J v.117" (thread one hundred seventeen)

"R+L=J v.118" (thread one hundred eighteen)

"R+L=J v.119" (thread one hundred nineteen)

"R+L=J v.120" (thread one hundred twenty)

"R+L=J v.121" (thread one hundred twenty one)

"R+L=J v.122" (thread one hundred twenty two)

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As master of time tables, I'd like to ask you a question.

I'm surprised with the Targaryen features of Aurane Waters, and I was wondering if he could be Viserys. It can be tested with their ages.

If AW were V, he wouldn't confess his real birthday, but rather some months difference. I'd say if the difference is higher, say a couple years, the possibility can be safely discarded.

How would you estimate the difference of ages?

Cersei tells us that Aurane is 22 years old in 300AC. So either he turned 22 that year, or he is 22 turning 23, meaning Aurane was born in either 278 or 277 AC. The statement is made (roughly) somewhere in the first quarter of the year 300AC.

Viserys, we know, was born in 276AC. The fact that Tywin "later that year" held a tourney for Viserys, would suggest that there were at least a few more months left in the year after Viserys' birth (thus, he wasn't born in the last month or two of the year, but earlier. Can't be said how much earlier though).

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Cersei tells us that Aurane is 22 years old in 300AC. So either he turned 22 that year, or he is 22 turning 23, meaning Aurane was born in either 278 or 277 AC. The statement is made (roughly) somewhere in the first quarter of the year 300AC.

Cersei may have misguessed his age. Tyrion has done the same thing with characters multiple times such as with Jon Snow and Aegon.

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Cersei tells us that Aurane is 22 years old in 300AC. So either he turned 22 that year, or he is 22 turning 23, meaning Aurane was born in either 278 or 277 AC. The statement is made (roughly) somewhere in the first quarter of the year 300AC.

Viserys, we know, was born in 276AC. The fact that Tywin "later that year" held a tourney for Viserys, would suggest that there were at least a few more months left in the year after Viserys' birth (thus, he wasn't born in the last month or two of the year, but earlier. Can't be said how much earlier though).

Thanks.

Rather unconclusive, I'd say. Not too close, not too far. GRRM seems to have decided to leave us guessing.

Anyway, the story's somewhat convoluted, someone playing Viserys till the point that he confuses his identity, while the real Viserys is hiding. Well,...

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Pray, why are we even discussing that character X who very undeniably died, might be character Y who is very much alive and has different eye colour?

You've just hinted the biggest surprise, the mother of all surprises!

Varys swapping a fake Aegon for a Pisswater baby, believing he's taking the real Aegon!

I don't think it was like that, but it'd be astonishing, you can't deny.

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If suspicions in Westeros are anything like suspicions on westeros.org, the best way for a Targaryen to remain hidden would have been to claim to be Targaryen.

Suspicions turning into paranoia?

Voice of reason speaking: The safest place to hide anything is where it has already been looked for.

;-)

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Back to Sterling Pass.



The wildlings left three people to guard the pass when the Quorin's squad came in.


In the way out, it was Quorin who left an archer to delay the wildlings while the others fled. And they thought he's been killed in his duty.



Translated to the ToJ, three KG,s prepared an ambush in an outstanding place on the Prince's Pass, so that "some other people" had the time to flee, and they died in the intent.



They don't need to live there, they don't need to have a poor woman giving birth in the wild, those who flee don't have to be right there, no more parley is needed, since no one else is there. In sum, it works smoothly.



I'll give one to Jon's band. The fact that they din't harm Ned hints that they heeded Lyanna when she asked them to spare her brother. So it works regardless who the king is.


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If Aurane is really Viserys, who's Viserys really?

If suspicions in Westeros are anything like suspicions on westeros.org, the best way for a Targaryen to remain hidden would have been to claim to be Targaryen.

I'd say it would be dangerous, if you wish to hide someone, to hide hem as the family member of a highborn family. Until the Blackwater, Aurane still had a living brother, and now, ay least a living nephew... There might be more Vrlaryons still..

And then the behavior of the Viserys we have met... It would be a strange thing if that wasn't the real Viserys...

I doubt there were multiple switches going on at the same time..

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If Aurane is really Viserys, who's Viserys really?

If suspicions in Westeros are anything like suspicions on westeros.org, the best way for a Targaryen to remain hidden would have been to claim to be Targaryen.

Have you read the posts? Any possibility can be explored.

Why should GRRM bring about a character who looks like Rhaegar?

Eta: I find it a bit stretched, too.

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Pray, why are we even discussing that character X who very undeniably died, might be character Y who is very much alive and has different eye colour?

Be thankful that this is lemon-free iteration of the thread... Small steps :)

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Shiny! :)



Ok, this was a question I found myself asking after last thread as I was heading off to bed. We were talking about the message the KG got telling them Aerys/Aegon/Rhaegar/ect were dead, but who sent them that message? It had to be someone who cared about the Targs and someone who knew where they were. It had to be someone in KL who witnessed the sack and could get information out quickly.



So...who did send the message to the 3KG at the TOJ?



In KL we have:


--Jaime Lannister


--GM Pycelle


--Varys


--Newly arrived armies like Tywin and Ned


--Glover, in the black cells


--Selmy, but injured




Not in KL:


--Queen Rhaella



I'm actually scratching my head now wondering who got word to the KG


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Not in the real world, oh no. Soldiers would still do their soldiering (rape, kill, plunder, abuse, burn).

Indeed, there are precendents enough for the Sack of Kings Landing, but the point in this case is that Ned regards it as being dishonourable because the city had been taken by treachery they didn't have the justification of having fought their way in

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Have you read the posts? Any possibility can be explored.

Why should GRRM bring about a character who looks like Rhaegar?

Eta: I find it a bit stretched, too.

I don't know how many times I've said this now, but possibility is not probability. Talking about every single possibility (which is basically infinite) is only going to slow down and hamper conversation. That's why some theories can be dismissed easily enough and then not brought up again.

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Shiny! :)

Ok, this was a question I found myself asking after last thread as I was heading off to bed. We were talking about the message the KG got telling them Aerys/Aegon/Rhaegar/ect were dead, but who sent them that message? It had to be someone who cared about the Targs and someone who knew where they were. It had to be someone in KL who witnessed the sack and could get information out quickly.

So...who did send the message to the 3KG at the TOJ?

In KL we have:

--Jaime Lannister

--GM Pycelle

--Varys

--Newly arrived armies like Tywin and Ned

--Glover, in the black cells

--Selmy, but injured

Not in KL:

--Queen Rhaella

I'm actually scratching my head now wondering who got word to the KG

I don't think anyone in KL sent them the message. I think the message was sent to Starfall and then relayed to the ToJ by messenger (either Arthur Dayne going to Starfall or someone riding out to the ToJ).

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