The Complete Winds of Winter Resource

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

GRRM said that he can`t spare the month it takes to produce a GoT episode, because of TWoW and this is the reason he is not writing for season 5, but he might return for season 6 if TWoW is finished by then.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrc_97IalW4

This makes me believe that he is (or believes himself to be) close to finishing, because if he wasn`t, surely he would be able to spare a month, as he could before. And he wouldn`t even mention the possibility of returning for the very next season...

[mormont]

I simply find this newsworthy Mormont.

Sorry, but it is clearly not news about TWOW.

This makes me believe that he is (or believes himself to be) close to finishing, because if he wasn`t, surely he would be able to spare a month, as he could before. And he wouldn`t even mention the possibility of returning for the very next season...

Nor is this. Good rule of thumb: if something 'makes you think' that TWOW is either imminent or a long way off, but contains no direct reference to TWOW at all, it is not news. It's you speculating. Speculation is not news.

[Werthead]

What comments? You never quoted his words. You merely indicated the conclusions you drew.

He said he had already started work on the next Dunk and Egg story and that it would be set in Winterfell. This was also the first time he mentioned the possible title The She-Wolves (which he seemed to later regret, saying it was a working title and the final title would be different).

I will also give you notification here that your passive-aggressive attitude is becoming needlessly antagonistic. Disagreeing with someone else's conclusions is fine, but then acting like your conclusions are indisputable facts and everyone else is wrong is not.

This makes me believe that he is (or believes himself to be) close to finishing, because if he wasn`t, surely he would be able to spare a month, as he could before. And he wouldn`t even mention the possibility of returning for the very next season...

I would not put any stock in this whatsoever. GRRM by his own admission is terrible at predictions. In 2007 he announced he was skipping his first Worldcon in more than 20 years to finish ADWD, and everyone took this to mean that the book would be done soon and out in 2008/09. In the event, it wasn't published for almost another four years.

[mattpeto]

Sorry, but it is clearly not news about TWOW.

Nor is this. Good rule of thumb: if something 'makes you think' that TWOW is either imminent or a long way off, but contains no direct reference to TWOW at all, it is not news. It's you speculating. Speculation is not news.

GRRM said that he can`t spare the month it takes to produce a GoT episode, because of TWoW and this is the reason he is not writing for season 5, but he might return for season 6 if TWoW is finished by then.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xrc_97IalW4

This makes me believe that he is (or believes himself to be) close to finishing, because if he wasn`t, surely he would be able to spare a month, as he could before. And he wouldn`t even mention the possibility of returning for the very next season...

Even though Mormont thinks your speculation about our attempts to "put the puzzle together" is irrelevant, I appreciated that link. Thanks for sharing. I wish there was a dedicated thread for speculation.

[Petyr Martell]

If GRRM or Groelle want to tell us that more than 168 pages have been submitted, all they need do is say so, and I will believe them.

I did not express an opinion on what "percent done" he is. My position is merely that total submitted pages were 168 as of June, 2014. And I think that is reasonably reconcilable with his April, 2013 remark.

If, for instance, he had 200 pages more or less done (but only 168 submitted), and another 200 pages half done, then he might reasonably count that as the equivalent of 300 pages. One might reasonably guess that that might be 25% of a novel that will be somewhere between 1000 and 1500 pages.

Note that he expressed considerable uncertainty as to whether he was in fact 25% done. If he were counting only polished submitted pages, I think he would know how many he had.

Essentially, you are arguing that when GRRM says he is 25% done, he REALLY means that he is MORE than 25% done, because he is not counting certain important aspects of his progress, such as rough or unsubmitted pages. I don't agree that this is self-evident.

So you are saying that not even GRRM knows how much progress he has done? Would you inform him? Are you writing the books too? GRRM has stated he is "a quarter of the way done". If you apply some math, 1/4=25%

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUp_RtzYMhk

I have no idea what this warning means. What may be considered as "factual" or not, is precisely what we have been debating. Clarification please!

I hope you're not saying that when Werthead and BryndenBFish say "x is fact" (in posts that are pinned by the mods), ChillyPolly is not allowed to disagree and say "No, x is not fact". If x is truly fact, it ought to be able to survive challenge in the context of free debate.

Well, you've repplied to me that the work shouldn't be thrown out after i said you were trying to do that. Well, here is just another example of you saying he should throw out part of his research, because you disaggreed. And you have spent much of the post saying many things shouldn't have been included in the OP's post, because you disagree.

Anyone who is getting mad at the articles should try to step back and accept that the interpretation given in these news reports is almost certainly correct. If there were any chance of a 2015 release, Jane Johnson would almost certainly have had some inkling of this. Keeping fans in the dark is one thing; keeping publishers in the dark is another.

Here is an example of speculation you've done. You have used as an argument for your point an oppinion you have. Why would she ink? She merely stated it wasn't on her schedule and GRRM is not sending many updates to his editors, as said by Werthead, who has done a great comment about GRRM's writing process and is included in TWOW. Anne Groelle has said she had 168 pages submitted in 2013's February, she said that in 2014's June, that seems like someone in the dark. Her statement does not mean we won't have TWOW this year, GRRM has said he doesn't want his editors to schedule his book before done.

ChillyPolly, on 05 Feb 2015 - 12:13 AM, said:

Whoah. Stop. The publisher did not say that. Yes, they did do it for ADWD, but I think that was probably a special case, related, I think, to the launch of the HBO series.

Sorry, no. You're mis-reading. But whatever. I give up. You'll just have to be disappointed come November.

You first said the publisher didn't say it, then, after the girl you were arguing posted Anne Groell's quote, you said she was mis-reading. She wasn't.Found it: "When one of George’s manuscripts come in, I basically drop everything, and go into isolation for as long as I need to get it done". There was nothing to mis-read, you are opposing to oppose.

The fantasy here is that he will submit it in August and it will release 3 months later. I thought that was the context of the discussion. If people had merely fantasized that he would submit it 6 months later, I would not have objected.

I never denied that 3 months was "doable", I merely pointed out that no-one has promised us this will happen, and it cannot be taken for granted. They've already got an ASOIAF book on the schedule for the fall season. And if Mr. Jordan thinks rushing books out in 3 months is a bad idea, well ... maybe he's right.

Speculation (you seem to hate speculation when you are disagreeing with someone, but speculation becomes argument for you way too often). Mr. Jordan is no GRRM, the last has had books published 4 months after completion, i can't see why it couldn't happen again, just because you and Mr. jordan think is a bad idea. You first said 3 months was a fantasy and then you said you never denied it was doable, you're confused.

This is less like good news, and more like no news. If he had confirmed a very substantial level of progress, then in that case, that he still "plans" (but does not promise) to finish in seven books (but did he even say or mean "finish"? -- maybe he'll just write 2 more books), might be meaningful.

Writing the 6th book for 4 years and saying he still plans 7 might not be news for you, but last year, his editor joked about 8 book, which drove fans crazy. I see it as news, specially if you consider he is really close to the end writing the 6th out of 7, this means 7 book might be something that won't change.

Even in the "probable" section, names are listed for which there exists no basis.

I think OP tends to confuse "character will probably appear" with "character will have a POV chapter".

That's why he put it in probable, that word allows speculation. You are opposing to oppose again, once you are criticizing the speculation in a speculation section.

Re, the "confirmed" Danaerys chapter:

(1) "writing about the Dothraki" for Winds, does not necessarily mean "writing a chapter about the Dothraki" for Winds; he could, for instance, be writing Dothraki background materials, which he will use later in the book, which may feature a Dothraki invasion of Westoros.

(3) Even so, you do not know that the next chapter to feature the Dothraki will be from Dany's point of view. The next we see of them could be from Barristan's, or Tyrion's, or Victarion's, or some other person's POV, as the Dothraki come charging into the battle of Meereen.

(4) George never said anything to indicate he had began "seriously" working on Winds in January 2012. "Planning" to do something is not the same as being confirmed to have done it, as GRRM has proven many many times.

Re: the "confirmed" Davos chapter.

(1) I have no idea from whose POV we will next see Osha. I don't think you know either. Maybe we will next see Davos in an Osha's POV? Have you considered that? Or maybe the next we see of Davos, Osha, Rickon & Summer is when they return to Westeros, in Jon Snow's POV, or Cersei's POV, or Jaime's POV, and only then will Davos explain how he came to retrieve Osha, Rickon & Summer. GRRM did tell us that the POVs are going to start to converge, after all. There are a thousand possibilities, and just because you consider a "Davos POV chapter" the most likely spot for the next Osha sighting, does not make it "confirmed".

You are being irrational. Dany might not be confirmed, but she'll almost certainly have a POV, she is at least probable. She was last seeing in danger with a khalasar. The dothrakis appearing in Meeren without a chapter of her would be unreasonable, GRRM has said she'll have a big role in TWOW, stating she would "find her roots", "embrace fire and blood", come back to Westeros, meet Tyrion although would be apart from him for most of the book (so she won't be with a POV character). A POV character alone with a big role, she looks at least a "probable POV" in TWOW

About Davos, once again, irrational your argument. Osha and Rickon are his plot, I must agree with BrydenBFish, Davos is, at least, a Probable POV.

All you've done through out the discussion was disagreeing. You didn't use reasonable arguments, you didn't quote GRRM, you didn't quote Anne Groelle, you just took all the information and methodically said most of it wasn't confirmed, saying it was speculation, but felt free to use speculation to support what you've said. If you don't think that was pursuing the OP's resource, you're wrong.

You said you didn't say anything bad about GRRM's writing. Well, you said he wasn't aware of his own writing progress and said there was nothing to believe he had made progress since 2013, when he keeps saying that people saying he does nothing for years and then works hard bothers him.

You said you've never depreceated BryndenBFish work. You've spent the whole post saying his sources were wrong, that he couldn't use a fellow fan (who was included in TWOW, what doesn't make him an usual fellow fan and you were proved wrong, because the source turned out to be GRRM himself), that the things he took in consideration were wrong.

I don't think you belong in this discussion, I haven't added much, all I've done so far was reading all comments, but, since the beggining, you've bothered me (and others, i believe) by only disagreeing, without having a point other than you're oppinion. You should withdrawn, instead of bringing negative thinking and oppinion to a complete and well-done post.

[Petyr Martell]

BTW, the last 2 quoted ("You are being irrational..." and "All you've done through out") weren't quotes, were my comments, i had some problems editing, I'm new here.

[ChillyPolly]

So you are saying that not even GRRM knows how much progress he has done? Would you inform him? Are you writing the books too? GRRM has stated he is "a quarter of the way done". If you apply some math, 1/4=25%

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUp_RtzYMhk

No, I am not saying that. Sounds like you did not even read or understand what you were responding to. I'll just assume you are arguing with an imaginary person, and move on.

[ChillyPolly]

BTW, the last 2 quoted ("You are being irrational..." and "All you've done through out") weren't quotes, were my comments, i had some problems editing, I'm new here.

BTW, if you agree with me that a Dany POV is "probable" but not "confirmed", then why are you attacking me for saying that a Dany POV is "probable" but not "confirmed". That's really wierd.

[Petyr Martell]

No, I am not saying that. Sounds like you did not even read or understand what you were responding to. I'll just assume you are arguing with an imaginary person, and move on.

You said " he is not counting certain important aspects of his progress, such as rough or unsubmitted pages. I don't agree that this is self-evident.", you've expressed that GRRM's update wasn't 100% right, because GRRM himself didn't count aspects of his progress. You are questioning GRRM, you are the one confused in here.

This post was made so we could help the OP to complement his research. All you've done was question him, you are not helping, just pursuing every statement that doesn't agree with your oppinion. I'm not the only one who thinks that, as Werthead say, you are being passive-agressive and opposign necessly.

[Petyr Martell]

BTW, if you agree with me that a Dany POV is "probable" but not "confirmed", then why are you attacking me for saying that a Dany POV is "probable" but not "confirmed". That's really wierd.

I'm "attacking" you, because you are attacking everything. I can't agree with you, because you disagree with everything, you questioned even the probable POVs, I imagine you would have done the same about Dany being a POV even if she was a probable. I mean, Brienne was listed ad probable and you were questioning it.

I think you should step aside from the discussion if you refuse to contribute with more information.

[ChillyPolly]

You said " he is not counting certain important aspects of his progress, such as rough or unsubmitted pages. I don't agree that this is self-evident.", you've expressed that GRRM's update wasn't 100% right, because GRRM himself didn't count aspects of his progress. You are questioning GRRM, you are the one confused in here.

Completely false. I never said that GRRM did not count aspects of his progress. I said that Werthead was assuming this without basis. You have no idea what you are talking about. Please stop.

[ChillyPolly]

I mean, Brienne was listed ad probable and you were questioning it.

Yes. I questioned that Brienne is "probable", and I said why. I can see room for disagreement on this point, however.

It is mainly when unconfirmed things are called "confirmed" that I find the OP's work seriously misleading.

[Petyr Martell]

Completely false. I never said that GRRM did not count aspects of his progress. I said that Werthead was assuming this without basis. You have no idea what you are talking about. Please stop.

I understood now what you meant there. But that's the only thing i'll give you, because everything else i've said is right, you've spent the whole post disagreeing and arguing with everyone.

[ChillyPolly]

He said he had already started work on the next Dunk and Egg story and that it would be set in Winterfell. This was also the first time he mentioned the possible title The She-Wolves (which he seemed to later regret, saying it was a working title and the final title would be different).

I will also give you notification here that your passive-aggressive attitude is becoming needlessly antagonistic. Disagreeing with someone else's conclusions is fine, but then acting like your conclusions are indisputable facts and everyone else is wrong is not.

Thank you for the clarification.

As for the latter remarks, they are personal in nature, and needlessly antagonistic. They are also extremely subjective, and impossible to defend against. I think they are uncalled for. It would be more honest to disagree with me on the facts, without impugning my character. I always get suspicious whenever I am told that it is okay for me to disagree, as long as my disagreement does not have certain highly subjective and straw-man qualities that others insist on attributing to me.

[zaafsta]

I see that people are talking about a confirmed or probable Jon POV chapter. Don't you reckon GRRM would NOT release a Jon POV chapter since it would be a massive spoiler due to what happened to him in ADWD? just saying.

[ChillyPolly]

I see that people are talking about a confirmed or probable Jon POV chapter. Don't you reckon GRRM would NOT release a Jon POV chapter since it would be a massive spoiler due to what happened to him in ADWD? just saying.

Well, yes. GRRM probably would not confirm Jon, because it is a spoiler. But more to the point, he HAS NOT confirmed. The GRRM quote cited by the OP as indicating that a Jon chapter has been confirmed is in fact merely intended by GRRM as a general example used as an illustration of of his writing habits.

There are roughly 6 POVs that I count as sufficiently major that they are likely to continue to appear as POVs (and not merely as characters): Jon, Arya, Sansa, Dany, Bran & Tyrion. Of these, Sansa, Arya, and Tyrion (and perhaps Bran per the OP - I have not looked at this closely) have been confirmed. That leaves Jon and Dany. Since I think Jon is probably not dead, and since GRRM has said Winds will not be divided by POV like Feast/Dance, I certainly agree that it is "probable" that Jon and Dany chapters will appear in Winds. But GRRM has not confirmed this. Nor has he confirmed that any Jon or Dany chapters are already written.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

I see that people are talking about a confirmed or probable Jon POV chapter. Don't you reckon GRRM would NOT release a Jon POV chapter since it would be a massive spoiler due to what happened to him in ADWD? just saying.

GRRM also said that he planned out Tyrion`s, Arya`s and Jon`s arcs from the very beginning and since Jon`s purpose is hardly to die at the hands of the NW he is likely to reappear, therefore Brynden sees a Jon chapter (in some form, maybe as Ghost) as a guarantee.

[ChillyPolly]

GRRM also said that he planned out Tyrion`s, Arya`s and Jon`s arcs from the very beginning and since Jon`s purpose is hardly to die at the hands of the NW he is likely to reappear, therefore Brynden sees a Jon chapter (in some form, maybe as Ghost) as a guarantee.

Once again, the OP is straining to interpret GRRM's words in a manner contrary to GRRM's intent. GRRM is not trying to give anything away. He is merely trying to say that he knew how certain characters stories would end.

Even if GRRM's words could be read as indicating that Jon Snow's "arc" will continue (in some sense) past his stabbing, this does not guarantee a Jon Snow POV chapter in Winds of Winter. Catelyn's arc has continued, after all, but her POV has (so far) ceased, and been absent from the last 2 volumes.

Whether a Jon POV chapter is precisely the same as a Ghost POV chapter is a whole other question.

GRRM has yet to confirm that a Jon POV will appear in Winds. Nor a Ghost POV either.

[ChillyPolly]

Also, if you look at the words quoted ...

Some major characters — yes, I always had plans, what Tyrion's arc was gonna be through this, what Arya's arc was gonna be through this, what Jon Snow's arc is gonna be. I knew what the principal deaths were gonna be, and when they were coming.

... the entire thing is past-future tense (was gonna, etc.), except for Jon Snow (is gonna). OP assumes this is a slip of the tongue by GRRM that gives something away, rather than a slip of the tongue that is simply an error contrary to intent and meaning, or a slip of the ear or the pen by the interviewer transcribing GRRM's words.

Seems an undue burden to place on the precise wording and pronunciation of an oral interview. Since we all agree he did not intend to give anything away, it would seem the reasonable conclusion is that he hasn't given anything away.

[Satin fetch me a cock!]

This is one of the best resources for information I have ever seen on TWOW.

I hate it when good posts and theories get hijacked.

I will be the first to admit that I don't have the authority to speak on Martin's writing process because I know nothing about it so I have enough sense not to get into a debate over it. It was really cool to see behind from the veil, and get an idea of how these things come together, so thanks for that Wert.

I can't wait for the post that says "GRRM announced on his Not a Blog that TWOW is complete and will be released on XXXXX!!