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The Complete Winds of Winter Resource


BryndenBFish

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He also said they will only cross? So they will talk while crossing after all?

He said they will "intersect in a way" but will be apart most of the book. That's why I think Tyrion will have some sorta influence in Meereen while Dany keeps doing her thing somewhere else until she comes back.

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Exculpated. Whoah. I think you mean that the Author retained the manuscripts of those chapters.

Bear in mind that some readers of the forums aren't native English speakers.

And, lest we confuse any non-native english speakers, exculpated is not what I think he meant to say. I think he meant "excised." "Exculpated" means to show to be not guilty; "exculpatory evidence" is evidence that tends to establish the innocence of the accused. "Exculpated" means roughly the same thing as "exonerated."

Apologies for the English lesson, but so long as others had brought it up . . .

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quick question for all of you (especially maybe BryndenBFish) - what is the source for the information that Mathis Rowan remains besieging Storm's End in TWOW with a token force? I've read it somewhere, but I can't find anything in AFFC, ADWD or TWOW released chapters.

I believe this information is relayed to us through one of Cersei's chapters in AFFC. Mathis goes off with Mace, after Harys becomes the Hand, to besiege Storm's End. There has been no update since, so we can assume he remains there.

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quick question for all of you (especially maybe BryndenBFish) - what is the source for the information that Mathis Rowan remains besieging Storm's End in TWOW with a token force? I've read it somewhere, but I can't find anything in AFFC, ADWD or TWOW released chapters.

It's from ADWD, The Griffin Reborn:

“Have those parchments told you anything of use?”

“Oh, much and more, my lord.” Haldon gave him a thin smile. “The Lannisters make enemies easily but seem to have a harder time keeping friends. Their alliance with the Tyrells is fraying, to judge from what I read here. Queen Cersei and Queen Margaery are fighting over the little king like two bitches with a chicken bone, and both have been accused of treason and debauchery. Mace Tyrell has abandoned his siege of Storm’s End to march back to King’s Landing and save his daughter, leaving only a token force behind to keep Stannis’s men penned up inside the castle.

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Your section on GRRM's progress treats as confirmed much that I would consider unconfirmed. Here is how I would summarize what is KNOWN about his progress.



(1) By June 2010, has bumped from ADWD 5 completed, submitted chapters, totaling "more than a hundred" pages to TWOW.



(2) By May 2011 (just before the release of ADWD), he has bumped an additional few chapters, possibly amounting to nearly a hundred pages, to TWOW. These however, were probably not submitted.



(3) In October 2011 (after the release of ADWD), he is quoted as saying he has 100 pages of TWOW, presumably referring (in this case) to SUBMITTED pages only.



(4) In July 2012, in Spain, he says he has about 200 pages "in a more or less finished state", and a probably equal amount in a very rough first draft state that is going to require alot of revision. He does NOT describe the 200 "more or less finished" pages as "polished". He does NOT claim that all of the 200 "more or less finished" pages have all been submitted. These 200 quasi-finished pages are not distinguised from "rough" pages, but rather from "very rough" pages, that will required ALOT of revision. Note also that he did not specify that any of the very rough material was new or recent - for all we know, it may be stuff that is left over from his attempt to leap over the 5 year gap.



(5) In October 2012, a Spanish fan named Adria publishes a distorted rewritten paraphrase of the above quote in a fake mega-intervew that rewrites GRRM's various answers given in a series of interviews GRRM gave in Spain in July 2012. This is the usual source of the claim that GRRM had 400 pages written in October, 2012. It is also the source of your claim that the 200 pages were "polished", a paraphrase of Adria's "really finished", both of which distort the actual wording ("more or less finished").



(6) In February 2013, George submits to his editor Anne Groelle a 168 pages partial, in order to receive a progress payment. Contrary to your assumptions (and Werthead's assumptions), I believe this consists of the 100+ pages he submitted to ADWD and bumped to TWOW in July 2010, plus an additional 60+ pages. In other words, some of the "less" finished of the "more or less finished" chapters have become "more finished" and been submitted. Not included in this partial is a Tyrion chapter that he has already read parts of at conventions.



(7) March, 2014, GRRM finally completes work on the World Book, and also announces he will not write an HBO script this season in order to focus on TWOW.



(8) June, 2014. Anne Groelle reveals that, as of this date, she has still only 168 pages (since February 2013 as stated above). On the plus side, she says GRRM is working on it, and she hopes to have it "reasonably soon".



Feel free to speculate that he has another 1000 pages in addition to what is confirmed. But as far as I can see, all that has been confirmed is 168 pages submitted, plus maybe some additional odd chapters that are relatively finished but unsubmitted.


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Feel free to speculate that he has another 1000 pages in addition to what is confirmed. But as far as I can see, all that has been confirmed is 168 pages submitted, plus maybe some additional odd chapters that are relatively finished but unsubmitted.

I think you're being a bit pessimistic. After the major revisions that had to happen during the writing of ADWD, I imagine George is more reluctant to send complete chapters to his editor, for fear that he may have to entirely re-write them again, like he had to for huge section of Dance. It's very possible he's holding back from sending chapters to his editor for this reason and he may sitting on hundreds of complete/near complete pages beside the 168.

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I think you're being a bit pessimistic.

I'm not being pessimistic at all. I am merely correcting the record as to what has been CONFIRMED, and all that has been CONFIRMED is 200 pages in a "more or less finished" state, 168 of which he had sent to his editor as of June, 2014.

Speculate all you want about additional pages he has NOT sent to his editor, and is keeping a secret from us. Personally, however, I don't see why he would hurt his book sales by keeping secret the fact that he has made significant progress.

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(6) In February 2013, George submits to his editor Anne Groelle a 168 pages partial, in order to receive a progress payment. Contrary to your assumptions (and Werthead's assumptions), I believe this consists of the 100+ pages he submitted to ADWD and bumped to TWOW in July 2010, plus an additional 60+ pages. In other words, some of the "less" finished of the "more or less finished" chapters have become "more finished" and been submitted. Not included in this partial is a Tyrion chapter that he has already read parts of at conventions.

The pages submitted in February 2013 had to be, 100%, new and in addition to the material left over from ADWD. The material left over from ADWD was finished and polished - it was supposed to be in ADWD, and removed for space reasons relatively late in the day - and so had already been submitted as part of that novel. Legally, it would not be possible to then take that material away and re-submit it as 'new' material so GRRM could fulfil his contractual obligations, since it would be re-submitting old material instead.

I'm not sure what about the progression of 168 pages + 200-odd to get 368-odd = 25% of the novel, as confirmed by George in April 2013, is so difficult to grasp. Whilst we know full well that George is prone to over-optimism, there is a big gap between optimism and trying to pass off a tenth of the book being done as quarter. That's crossing the line into either delusion or deception.

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And, lest we confuse any non-native english speakers, exculpated is not what I think he meant to say. I think he meant "excised." "Exculpated" means to show to be not guilty; "exculpatory evidence" is evidence that tends to establish the innocence of the accused. "Exculpated" means roughly the same thing as "exonerated."

Apologies for the English lesson, but so long as others had brought it up . . .

Thanks I hadnt a clue what he meant with exculpated. Sounded medical
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The pages submitted in February 2013 had to be, 100%, new and in addition to the material left over from ADWD.

The material left over from ADWD was finished and polished - it was supposed to be in ADWD, and removed for space reasons relatively late in the day - and so had already been submitted as part of that novel.

No. Of the roughly 200 pages left over from ADWD, only roughly 100 pages (consisting of five chapters) were confirmed as having been submitted to his editor. The remaining ~100 pages were apparently written towards the end, but were apparently bumped without ever being submitted. GRRM, after release of ADWD, continued to talk about 100 pages as being his current total, and this is reconcilable with what we know only if we interpret it as referring only to 100 pages bumped in June, 2010, which did NOT at that time include the second batch of bumped material.

100 pages were finished and submitted. 100 more pages were slightly less finished, and unsubmitted. Together they add up to 200 "more or less finished" pages, with an additional 200 pages in a "VERY rough" state. Later the submitted total was increased from 100 to 168,

Legally, it would not be possible to then take that material away and re-submit it as 'new' material so GRRM could fulfil his contractual obligations, since it would be re-submitting old material instead.

By my estimate, 60+ of these 168 pages were new, in the sense that the editor had never received them before. Whether this is enough new material to justify giving GRRM a contractual progress payment is entirely between GRRM and his publisher.

If GRRM or Groelle want to tell us that more than 168 pages have been submitted, all they need do is say so, and I will believe them.

I'm not sure what about the progression of 168 pages + 200-odd to get 368-odd = 25% of the novel, as confirmed by George in April 2013, is so difficult to grasp.

Whilst we know full well that George is prone to over-optimism, there is a big gap between optimism and trying to pass off a tenth of the book being done as quarter. That's crossing the line into either delusion or deception.

I did not express an opinion on what "percent done" he is. My position is merely that total submitted pages were 168 as of June, 2014. And I think that is reasonably reconcilable with his April, 2013 remark.

If, for instance, he had 200 pages more or less done (but only 168 submitted), and another 200 pages half done, then he might reasonably count that as the equivalent of 300 pages. One might reasonably guess that that might be 25% of a novel that will be somewhere between 1000 and 1500 pages.

Note that he expressed considerable uncertainty as to whether he was in fact 25% done. If he were counting only polished submitted pages, I think he would know how many he had.

Essentially, you are arguing that when GRRM says he is 25% done, he REALLY means that he is MORE than 25% done, because he is not counting certain important aspects of his progress, such as rough or unsubmitted pages. I don't agree that this is self-evident.

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In any case, then, the absolutely most optimistic take is that he had submitted slightly under 400 pages as of June 2014--approximately six months ago--and he had not submitted anything to his editor since 2013, which he only did to receive a payment, of which all but 168 pages were left over from Dance.



I don't see how people think he's going to have the book out in 2015 then, if the most optimistic view is that this 400 pages represented 25%? It means it has taken him approximately 5 years to 'polish' 300 pages and write 168 pages of new material? Yet, somehow he's going to be able to whip out the other 75% in 6-8 months?



This page count, which I generally stay away from, if accurate, makes mid to late 2016 seem like the best case scenario.

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Essentially, you are arguing that when GRRM says he is 25% done, he REALLY means that he is MORE than 25% done, because he is not counting certain important aspects of his progress, such as rough or unsubmitted pages. I don't agree that this is self-evident.

It may not be self-evident to people who have not spent over a decade studying the process, but it is precedented. This is exactly how GRRM has always worked since he started writing the series. Whenever he gives a progress report, it only includes the finished pages and the rough stuff is left out, because it's value is unknown (it might need 5 minutes to fix up into a finished chapter or 5 months). If he comments on roughs or partials, he specifically notes that this is the case.

I agree that the primary problem with these discussions is that, unlike ADWD, GRRM is not providing regular enough updates to say anything with overwhelming certainty. However, your position seems to be unwarrantedly pessimistic (10% of the book done in two years) when the alternative (25% done in two years) would still result in TWoW taking two years longer to complete than even ADWD, which is frankly bad enough.

I don't see how people think he's going to have the book out in 2015 then

I don't either, and without more optimistic news emerging from Team GRRM soon, I can't see 2016 being particularly viable either, which means he will be close to matching the wait for ADWD (5 years, 9 months). In fact, he matches that if TWoW isn't out by April 2017. More distressingly, GRRM started making much more optimistic noises about TWoW being done 18 months or so out from publication, and there are few indications of that yet.

OTOH, George has said he would not be providing regular updates for this book, and he has stuck by that, which means everything could still be up in the air.

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I don't either, and without more optimistic news emerging from Team GRRM soon, I can't see 2016 being particularly viable either, which means he will be close to matching the wait for ADWD (5 years, 9 months). In fact, he matches that if TWoW isn't out by April 2017. More distressingly, GRRM started making much more optimistic noises about TWoW being done 18 months or so out from publication, and there are few indications of that yet.

OTOH, George has said he would not be providing regular updates for this book, and he has stuck by that, which means everything could still be up in the air.

I take George at his word when he said that there have not been nearly as many re-writes of TWOW than ADWD. So, 2017 seems a touch pessimistic to me. You're right that being a quarter of the way done in 2013 seems like bad news bears, but think again that in 2007 had GRRM was at essentially at 25% mark in 2007 (472 pages) for ADWD, but that wasn't a good barometer of progress as rewrites happened over the years (Including a seemingly significant re-write in 2009-2010 as page counts shifted pretty dramatically (1261 MS pages in Feb 2010, cuts/re-writes to 1028 (Damphair, Sansa, Arianne & Arya cut to TWOW) in June 2010, major pick-up in pace/finishing of partials resulting in 1300+ in Dec 2010) .

I'd also like to add something here: 400 confirmed pages is underselling it. TWOW, Tyrion II was not included in the 168 page batch that Anne Groell received in Feb 2013, and in the same Suvudu interview, Anne is quoted as saying that there's other chapters that George hasn't sent her that he's been raving about.

I currently have 168 pages that he submitted back in Feb 2013 in order to receive a contracted payment, but I know more exists, because he keeps talking about chapter he hasn’t yet sent me.

The funny thing is: I think Anne had a typo here, and a significant one at that. Since she next talks about the Tyrion chapter as a separate chapter ("In fact, when we wanted to put an exclusive excerpt on the A WORLD OF ICE AND FIRE app—a magnificent thing which you all should buy and use!—he suggested the second Tyrion chapter, which I then had to remind him was not in the sample I had."), the inference is that George has a number of completed chapters he hasn't sent her. Now read Anne's quote corrected for the typo and tell me I'm crazy (well, more than usual):

I know more exists, because he keeps talking about chapters (Corrected) he hasn’t yet sent me.

I'd also heard through the grapevine that GRRM met with Anne Groell in NYC during the 92Y livestream in October 2014. So, there exists the potential that a doc drop-off occurred in October 2014 -- this would be well-after her suvudu interview in May 2014. (If that's baseless rumor-mongering, speculation, let me know, and I'll delete this para)

Somewhat unrelated to this discussion: Wert, I ran across an old thread here on Westeros that indicated that you would have a character based on you in TWOW, and I wondered whether that was true or not.

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the A WORLD OF ICE AND FIRE app—a magnificent thing which you all should buy and use!—<

**just an FYI Randomhouse. Removed the Android app from the playstore. I found out the hard way. I was uninstalling/reinstalling to fix an issue and when i went to complete the reinstall, it was no longer THERE!!! I have written to them and if ANYONE knows ANYTHING i do not, PLEASE let me know as i would LOVE MY APP (REEK) BACK!

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