Who wrote the letter with a black wax seal, and what is on it? (TWoW Spoilers)

[Taenqyrhae]

Early in Theon I, Theon sees a letter that Stannis has with a broken black wax seal.

A letter, Theon knew. Its broken seal was black wax, hard and shiny. I know what that says, he thought, giggling.

What does it say, how does Theon know, and who wrote it? The black wax makes me think it came from the Wall, but I'm not sure how Theon would know anything about that. I'm sure it's obvious but I'm not seeing it.

[Sodd]

Early in Theon I, Theon sees a letter that Stannis has with a broken black wax seal.

What does it say, how does Theon know, and who wrote it? The black wax makes me think it came from the Wall, but I'm not sure how Theon would know anything about that. I'm sure it's obvious but I'm not seeing it.

IMO its the letter Jon has sent to Stannis after he learned from Alys Karstark that Arnolf wants to betray Stannis. Theon must have been hearing Stannis discussing the letter with someone before that scene in the preview chapter.

It's in Jon's ADWD chapters (the one with the wedding and the one before that):

Alys Karstark laughed, but it was the laughter of despair. “Write, but do not look for a reply. Stannis will be dead before he gets your message. My uncle will see to that.”

“What do you mean?”

“Arnolf is rushing to Winterfell, ’tis true, but only so he might put his dagger in your king’s back. He cast his lot with Roose Bolton long ago … for gold, the promise of a pardon, and poor Harry’s head. Lord Stannis is marching to a slaughter.

Clydas had dispatched a raven to Deepwood Motte to warn the king of Arnolf Karstark’s treachery, but whether the bird had reached His Grace in time Jon did not know.

[bemused]

Yes, and Theon would know without reading the letter because he and Jeyne were with Mors Umber , who would surely have told Tycho's party to warn Stannis about Karstark...and Tycho may have told Mors about Alys.. It may be a guess on Theon's part , but many of his guesses have been pretty good. Or he may have heard more of Tycho and Stannis' conversation than what we see in the chapter. (Tycho was still at the wall when Alys arrived , but not for the wedding.)

[Blutrabe]

A letter, Theon knew. Its broken seal was black wax, hard and shiny. I know what that says, he thought, giggling.

Does anyone else think that this sounds like a "look at letter" response in an adventure game? :D

[Satin fetch me a cock!]

_{I think there is a small chance it could be a response to the "Pink Letter". (Honestly, a .000001%) There are theories that when Theon "sung" for Mance, he actually helped Mance write the pink letter that was sent to Jon. If this is true, then Theon may assume that it is news from The Wall that Jon and the Widlings or marching on Winterfell or that Stannis' family has been delivered to Mance. But it is more than likely Jon warning Stannis about the Karstarks.}

[Brother Seamus]

_{I think there is a small chance it could be a response to the "Pink Letter". (Honestly, a .000001%) There are theories that when Theon "sung" for Mance, he actually helped Mance write the pink letter that was sent to Jon. If this is true, then Theon may assume that it is news from The Wall that Jon and the Widlings or marching on Winterfell or that Stannis' family has been delivered to Mance. But it is more than likely Jon warning Stannis about the Karstarks.}

I agree it's definitely Jon's letter relaying what Alys told about Arnolf's betrayal. How Theon knows what it is is unknown, but it could have happened any number of ways. The fact that he was with Tycho and the ironborn from Deepwood (who, remember, came form Deepwood Motte, which is where Jon's letter was sent to) is the most apparent explanation.

[Satin fetch me a cock!]

I agree it's definitely Jon's letter relaying what Alys told about Arnolf's betrayal. How Theon knows what it is is unknown, but it could have happened any number of ways. The fact that he was with Tycho and the ironborn from Deepwood (who, remember, came form Deepwood Motte, which is where Jon's letter was sent to) is the most apparent explanation.

That's right. I don't think any readers would have reason to question the contents of this letter had this Theon chapter been included in ADWD, before Jon's final chapter.

[MMAJim]

I'm at work so I don't have an opportunity to reference this but isn't Theon present at when Arnolf Karstark meets with the Bolton crew around the time that Ramsey and Roose reunite? Or am I getting my Umbers and Karstarks crossed up?

[nickdt]

But what if the pink letter wasn't Mances but this one is. Then its obvious Theon knows about it.

I'm at work so I don't have an opportunity to reference this but isn't Theon present at when Arnolf Karstark meets with the Bolton crew around the time that Ramsey and Roose reunite? Or am I getting my Umbers and Karstarks crossed up?

Yes Theon was present.

[Taemlyn Blackfyre]

But what if the pink letter wasn't Mances but this one is. Then its obvious Theon knows about it.

No. It's Jon's. What else it might say is pure speculation.

[Clegane'sPup]

Early in Theon I, Theon sees a letter that Stannis has with a broken black wax seal.

Quote

What does it say, how does Theon know, and who wrote it? The black wax makes me think it came from the Wall, but I'm not sure how Theon would know anything about that. I'm sure it's obvious but I'm not seeing it.

Let me say, in all seriousness, that there seems to be a bunch of ravens flying around passing information and I do think that it is ravens not scouts revealing the information. Book order of events:

Jon advises Stannis to woo the mountain clans and take Deepwood.

Asha while at DW receives Ramseys’s letter announcing wedding. Notes that last letter she received came from Stannis demanding homage.

Stannis and clans take DW.

Roose tells Ramsey that Stannis has left CB. Ramsey asks if Stannis marches on Dreadfort and poppa says no that Stannis has taken Deepwood.

Jon receives letter from Stannis stating that Stannis has taken DW and that the clans had joined him and that Alysane Mormont used fishing sloops to help destroy the Ironborn ships.

Roose announces that Stannis has left DW and that Umber and Karstark mean to join Stannis at WF.

Stannis leaves DW. According to Asha on the 32^nd day of travel they reach the crofters village.

The banker arrives at CB. Alys Karstak arrives at CB and discloses Arnolf’s plan to betray Stannis.

Clydas dispatches a raven to DW about the Karstark betrayal, but Jon doesn’t know if Stannis received the letter.

The Banker goes off in search of Stannis. Jon has given him two NW men as guides.

Roose announces that Stannis is three days ride from WF.

Jon says he needs to speak with Selyse and after he will have letters to write.

Asha says Arnolf had joined them 8 days past. Arnolf is encouraging Stannis to march on WF.

Tristifer Botley, who had been a prisoner at Deepwood says, “We looked for you at WF but only found Umber beating drums and blowing horns. The banker dismounts, talks with Asha and says,”We had expected to find you at WF.” Then produces Theon and Jeyne.

After that the next relevant POV concerning this story is Jon’s chapter where he receives the bastard/pink letter and later in that POV Jon is stabbed.

Brings us to the Theon preview/gift chapter: It’s broken seal was black wax. Broken seal. The letter has been read. Black wax is from the NW? The banker picked up the letter from DW? Theon knew the contents because the contents had been spoken?

Short version of my post is Jon sent a letter to Stannis at Deepwood about Karstark's betrayal, the banker picked it up from Deepwood, gave it to Stannis, Stannis opened it, read it out loud while Theon was hanging on the wall.