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A spectre is haunting Westeros — the spectre of the smallfolk


Mithras

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All the Lords and would-be monarchs of Westeros have entered into an endless, bloody civil war which took its toll dearly on this spectre: Joffrey and Robb, Stannis and Renly, Balon and Euron, Dany and fAegon.



I think we should be paying attention to the deep hatred brewing among the smallfolk against the high lords. They play their game of thrones but the smallfolk pays the price.



The sparrow movement might look like a populist, religious, misogynistic delirium which is vulnerable to exploitation by a power hungry maniac like the High Sparrow. In many ways, it is so.



But the foundation of this sparrow movement is real and serious. The smallfolk of the Riverlands saw the ugly face of the civil war. The Northmen will see it too. Westerlands and the Reach will follow. Lastly, Dorne will remember what it was like to fight against dragons.



Surely, Westeros has seen many such tragedies before. But this time,



1. People could not have a final harvest.



2. This winter will bring another Long Night.



3. Whatever resources that survived the Wot5K will be spent for DoD 2.0.



I am not claiming that the feudalism that survived for more than 10.000 years will come to an end and the age of enlightenment will begin.



But I do think that the series will be concluded with a new reconciliation between the feudal lords and their serfs after the Dawn comes.


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I think this is where Aegon comes in. The cheering crowd around the mummer's dragon points to his popularity among the peasants. And I think Varys shrewdly acknowledges the untapped support that the peasant and working classes can give while the noble classes are weakened and divided. I think Aegon allies with the Faith and the sparrows and that this alliances forms the backbone of his popular support and legitimacy.

I also think it's relevant that several dragons, including Syrax and Dreamfyre, were killed by a peasant mob. That mob was also led by a nameless zealot called the Shepherd, who might be a parallel of sorts to the High Sparrow. Point is, people in force can be deadly if they're pushed far enough.

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I agree that fAegon will be very popular. I also suspect Varys has a hand in the elevation of the High Sparrow and he has been pulling his strings. Otherwise, he would kill him along with Kevan and Pycelle. An uncontrollable fanatic is as dangerous to fAegon.



But fAegon will die fighting against Dany. I also think that people will at one point realize that they were fooled by a farce. New evidences of fAegon’s falsehood will emerge.



I think this will make things harder for Jon. People will be like “Another son of Rhaegar? Give me a break. The previous one at least looked like Rhaegar.”


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I hope they can defend themselves through the Warriors Sons etc. from any more pillaging... I find the High Sparrow quite endearing because even if he is after power his actions and words have been in support of the smallfolk which has not really been an prominent issue for the other kings and queens...

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But fAegon will die fighting against Dany. I also think that people will at one point realize that they were fooled by a farce. New evidences of fAegon’s falsehood will emerge.

Agree with the first part but not the second. I'm iffy on Westeros ever knowing for sure whether Aegon was real. In Dany's case I think it could be a false victory; she wins but is hated for killing her "nephew" who was the "rightful king."

As for people disbelieving Jon's parentage, I tend to think it's irrelevant. Harder for him to what, exactly?

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I love this theme in the books. Even before we see this theme with the Sparrows, we see it as a theme in Arya's subplot and her relationship with Gendry. I have often wondered if Gendry might be raised up as a populist hero at some point.

I love that this theme completely undermines the readers view that the Starks are heroic and better than the Lannisters.

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I think this is where Aegon comes in. The cheering crowd around the mummer's dragon points to his popularity among the peasants. And I think Varys shrewdly acknowledges the untapped support that the peasant and working classes can give while the noble classes are weakened and divided. I think Aegon allies with the Faith and the sparrows and that this alliances forms the backbone of his popular support and legitimacy.

I also think it's relevant that several dragons, including Syrax and Dreamfyre, were killed by a peasant mob. That mob was also led by a nameless zealot called the Shepherd, who might be a parallel of sorts to the High Sparrow. Point is, people in force can be deadly if they're pushed far enough.

A pet theory of mine is that fAegon accomplishes that by Illyrio exporting vast amounts of food to Westeros. When Illyrio meets Tyrion in ADWD he says, that Westeros will soon face a famine and IIRC he also says, that it will soon get scarce in the other Free Cities. Since his enormous wealth and his profession as a tradesman allows him to sell and store large amounts of food in Pentos and in the other Free Cities it would be quite easy for him to help fAegon win popularity in Westeros that way.

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Vive la revolution! Was there ever a prettier sight than a nobles head in a basket?





I think that would be a nice ending to the story, the smallfolk putting their foot down and forcing those at the top to make concessions.


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All the Lords and would-be monarchs of Westeros have entered into an endless, bloody civil war which took its toll dearly on this spectre: Joffrey and Robb, Stannis and Renly, Balon and Euron, Dany and fAegon.

I think we should be paying attention to the deep hatred brewing among the smallfolk against the high lords. They play their game of thrones but the smallfolk pays the price.

The sparrow movement might look like a populist, religious, misogynistic delirium which is vulnerable to exploitation by a power hungry maniac like the High Sparrow. In many ways, it is so.

But the foundation of this sparrow movement is real and serious. The smallfolk of the Riverlands saw the ugly face of the civil war. The Northmen will see it too. Westerlands and the Reach will follow. Lastly, Dorne will remember what it was like to fight against dragons.

Surely, Westeros has seen many such tragedies before. But this time,

1. People could not have a final harvest.

2. This winter will bring another Long Night.

3. Whatever resources that survived the Wot5K will be spent for DoD 2.0.

I am not claiming that the feudalism that survived for more than 10.000 years will come to an end and the age of enlightenment will begin.

But I do think that the series will be concluded with a new reconciliation between the feudal lords and their serfs after the Dawn comes.

It is right to say a spectre, because a large majority of the smallfolk are going to be ghosts, thanks to having no food stores when the long winter hits in earnest.

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This has been a theory I've been working on.



Remember Varys' riddle about the septon, the king and the rich man (or so I remember)? The answer to it was that it all depended on the sellsword. The sellsword is only a man of the smallfolk, in most cases. He's no highborn man, no knight in shining armor, and yet he holds the key to life and death for all three men. Eventually the men fighting for all those lords will realize that they fight for a glory that won't be theirs and die for it.



Yes, I do believe this is what Varys is trying to do with fAegon. Yes, I do believe before the series concludes the smallfolk will have a huge role, at last.


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A pet theory of mine is that fAegon accomplishes that by Illyrio exporting vast amounts of food to Westeros. When Illyrio meets Tyrion in ADWD he says, that Westeros will soon face a famine and IIRC he also says, that it will soon get scarce in the other Free Cities. Since his enormous wealth and his profession as a tradesman allows him to sell and store large amounts of food in Pentos and in the other Free Cities it would be quite easy for him to help fAegon win popularity in Westeros that way.

I can see it. It would also be a delicious (no pun intended) send-up of the Tyrells. The family that won favor by manipulating the food supply is undone by another party doing the same thing.

It is right to say a spectre, because a large majority of the smallfolk are going to be ghosts, thanks to having no food stores when the long winter hits in earnest.

Which is all the more reason for them to side with Aegon if Illyrio can arrange for food shipments. It also lessens their motivation to side with Dany over Aegon, given that she'd just be importing thousands of extra mouths to feed who'd compete with the peasant class for already scarce food.

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Faegon will definitely be popular amongst the smallfolk. Mainly because he has the support of the High Sparrow and because the smallfolk hates the other candidates. Euron Greyjoy, Myrcella Baratheon, Stannis Baratheon. Even the most well loved amongst those three (Stannis) isn't going to be very well liked.



On a slighty related note, I'm looking forward to the fight between the Poor Fellows and the BwB. The Faith Militant will stand firmly behind Faegon, but the BwB with their share of R'hlorrists and exposure to magic will be more inclined to fight for Daenerys imo. Would make for an interesting match I'd say.






A pet theory of mine is that fAegon accomplishes that by Illyrio exporting vast amounts of food to Westeros. When Illyrio meets Tyrion in ADWD he says, that Westeros will soon face a famine and IIRC he also says, that it will soon get scarce in the other Free Cities. Since his enormous wealth and his profession as a tradesman allows him to sell and store large amounts of food in Pentos and in the other Free Cities it would be quite easy for him to help fAegon win popularity in Westeros that way.




This will be very unlikely imo. Besides the probable fall of Pentos to the the Tattered Prince, the narrow sea will probably be a place of carnage in tWoW. Not exactly the place for a steady supply of food. Or at least not without a shitload of warships as an escort.


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By and large, the Smallfolk identify with their own lords, rather than the Smallfolk of other districts.

That is true but we see the signs of change in Riverlands, in the talks of Meribald and Elder Brother. They blame both the wolves and the lions for what they have suffered.

Before TWOIAF, we did not know that Egg made reforms in favor of the smallfolk which pissed the nobility off. All of those reforms were undone later but it is not ancient history. We also see a similar thing during the First Dance.

An example of the differing Dornish laws and attitudes due to the influence of the Rhoynar may be found, curiously, in the last days of the Dance of the Dragons. From Archmaester Gyldayn’s history concerning Gaemon Palehair’s brief reign: One decree after another came down from the House of Kisses, where the child king had his seat, each more outrageous [WTF?] than the last. Gaemon decreed that girls should henceforth be equal with boys in matter of inheritance, that the poor be given bread and beer in times of famine, and that men who had lost limbs in war must afterward be fed and housed by whichever lord they had been fighting for when the loss took place. Gaemon decreed that husbands who beat their wives should themselves be beaten, irrespective of what the wives had done to warrant such chastisement. These edicts were almost certainly the work of a Dornish whore named Sylvenna Sand, reputedly the paramour of the king’s mother Essie, if Mushroom is to be believed.

I think these inventions of George show that he is really thinking of a clash between the nobility and the smallfolk.

We also have some rare and precious POVs from the smallfolk side (Chett and Pate). It is clear from their POVS that the smallfolk are very much aware of the unfairness of this class difference and they have a deep resentment towards the nobility.

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Also a smallfolk uprising under Aeron will likely begin on here Isles, and I wouldn't count Aeron as a noble here, just a priest. But religion doesn't simply apply to smallfolk.

No giant rebellion ala Hunger Games though, and about half of Westeros will perish during winter and the fighting. The smallfolk aren't dumb, and I can promise they'd already have started storing food.

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That is true but we see the signs of change in Riverlands, in the talks of Meribald and Elder Brother. They blame both the wolves and the lions for what they have suffered.

Before TWOIAF, we did not know that Egg made reforms in favor of the smallfolk which pissed the nobility off. All of those reforms were undone later but it is not ancient history. We also see a similar thing during the First Dance.

An example of the differing Dornish laws and attitudes due to the influence of the Rhoynar may be found, curiously, in the last days of the Dance of the Dragons. From Archmaester Gyldayn’s history concerning Gaemon Palehair’s brief reign: One decree after another came down from the House of Kisses, where the child king had his seat, each more outrageous [WTF?] than the last. Gaemon decreed that girls should henceforth be equal with boys in matter of inheritance, that the poor be given bread and beer in times of famine, and that men who had lost limbs in war must afterward be fed and housed by whichever lord they had been fighting for when the loss took place. Gaemon decreed that husbands who beat their wives should themselves be beaten, irrespective of what the wives had done to warrant such chastisement. These edicts were almost certainly the work of a Dornish whore named Sylvenna Sand, reputedly the paramour of the king’s mother Essie, if Mushroom is to be believed.

I think these inventions of George show that he is really thinking of a clash between the nobility and the smallfolk.

We also have some rare and precious POVs from the smallfolk side (Chett and Pate). It is clear from their POVS that the smallfolk are very much aware of the unfairness of this class difference and they have a deep resentment towards the nobility.

Sylvenna Sand would likely be a noble bastard, no? Or pretending to be one, so been then, nobility come along and snatch away smallfolk autonomy smh!
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I love that this theme completely undermines the readers view that the Starks are heroic and better than the Lannisters.

Er...they are. On both counts.

Perhaps I need to pay attention to certain chapters more closely on my next full re-read, but I just don't see any kind of major smallfolk uprising in the wings. No significant, long-lasting POV character belongs to that class, and GRRM has said in interviews that he holds to the "heroic" view of history, that it's the deeds of the few exceptional men that drive the great events of time. IMO, the big conflicts will stay with, and boil down to, the POVs we have, or at least those that make it to the end.

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Er...they are. On both counts.

Perhaps I need to pay attention to certain chapters more closely on my next full re-read, but I just don't see any kind of major smallfolk uprising in the wings. No significant, long-lasting POV character belongs to that class, and GRRM has said in interviews that he holds to the "heroic" view of history, that it's the deeds of the few exceptional men that drive the great events of time. IMO, the big conflicts will stay with, and boil down to, the POVs we have, or at least those that make it to the end.

This is not to say that heroic actions do not drive this story, but Martin is constantly subverting the idea that the hero is a shining knight on a white horse . We are constantly getting exposition from the Hound, Jaime, Jorah, etc. on the horrible things knights do. We have an entire subplot on slavery. We have small folk regularly saying they don't care whether it is a wolf or a lion raping and murdering them. I am not aware that Rob Stark ever expresses concern over the impact of the war on the small folk. (It might be worth a reread.)

So yes, Tywin is a naked villain, but the small folk on the Riverlands have no reason to view Robb as a hero.

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