Surveying the Military Situation in Westeros at the Start of TWOW

[BryndenBFish]

I find obsessing over numbers a bit lame and impossible. This is literature, not accounting. GRRM has said he's bad with #s.

*stannis only has the "ragged 9" ,as Crom puts it, who survived Deepwood.

The Iron islands are small but a couple things to keep in mind--they grow their numbers by taking thralls and captured vessels. Every able bodied man is expected to be a warrior, and a good one. They have no shortage of weapons and armor. There is some truth to the saying every Ironborn man is worth more than however many from the mainland.

I realize its a big and fertile place but I always find the Reach's army numbers to be unbelievably inflated. They need to be nerfed. (*cue Euron)

The numbers argument is important as we know that TWOW will open with 3 pretty major battles with the potential of another pretty significant battle coming up sometime after the start of TWOW.

The Battles of Winterfell, Meereen & Storm's End will kick off TWOW with the coming War between the Reach & Ironborn probably coming later in the book.

So, knowing the armies involved is good supplementary material for whenever TWOW comes out. But it's not essential. Now, as I've read through some of the excellent & insightful comments here, I need to re-think and probably revise some of the #s for the armies. However, my intent was to try to create something that would be a springboard for discussion on the military situation at the start of TWOW. It's not intended to be an analysis of what will come of the battles (I've done some analysis on 2 of the upcoming battles here & here if you're interested in reading them). It's more of getting ducks into rows & allowing the resource to serve as a source for future discussion.

[Frey Pie]

Sort of.

The problem is that the first book or two are damn hazy. Not only about the Ironborn but in total.

But the impression of the ironborn we get is not one of power. The isles are bleak, agriculture is useless, the only mines are iron, no gold/silver etc etc. The Greyjoys don't seem to be up there with the other great houses. Influence in Westeros is small etc etc

Then all of a sudden they send around 1000 ships (possibly very inflated) to take the Reach on, after sending another 100 (or there abouts) very large ships across the ocean? As in 10,000 men at the least iirc

Seems a huge leap in power to me...possibly to whittle down the forces of the Reach when george realised they're too strong?

[Pod The Rod]

The Reach isn't too strong at all. It's the largest of the Southern regions, with multiple major population centers, and probably the richest farmland in the known world. It's entirely believable that they'd be able to muster 100, 000 men.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

BBE is right about the possible population and the ability to field that many men, though 10 years wouldn't be enough to recover the huge losses they suffered at Fair Isle and when Robert landed, what's more they have to equip all of the new men and find the lumber to build ships, something they can't do without a lot of funding, which literally no one would give them.

Ships of that technology level would rarely last ten years anyway. They'd have been replaced even if the Ironborn had won.

How they held the Riverlands for a century when any pike square/arrow storm/cavalry charge/any combination of those three from any of the 5 surrounding regions could make short work of them I have no idea.

They were way more Riverlander than Ironborn at that point in time. The Ironborn regressed after the Conquest.

Theon had 8 longships, which should have had 40-50 men each, subtract 20 for Theon's men and you get 300-380 men at Torrhen's Square. We know there were heavy losses with their entire force being broken by a cavalry charge, making it very surprising any got away at all. I think 1/2 of those probably died. However there may have been a greater number than that present if Theon's 8 met up with other longships, which would make sense, Rodrik wouldn't take 900 men if he was already facing less than 400, and his troops were of a superior quality.

More like 80-100 men. A longship would have 20-30 pairs of oars, 20 and 25 being the most common. Each oar being crewed (not while rowing, but in total) with two men, if we go after the Scandinavian Leidang. So, 80-100 men.

Casualties for those at Moat Caillin possibly weren't very high at first because Meera and Jojen were captive, however the harrying starts well before Victarion leaves, indicating that there may have been several hundred casualties before Balon even died.

We don't know how many Vic left behind, but the wiki states 1/10th of the Iron fleet, indicating 1,000 men, which I suspect is too many, also I think Victarion started off the voyage to Mereen with 93 ships or something along those lines, which means 1 in 10 couldn't have been left behind. if it was 1/20 then 5 ships would have been present, which were destroyed by the Ryswells and Dustins, this lower number gives us 500 men, reduced to 60 by months of starvation and guerrilla warfare and a minor battle.

More like 1/20th. Victarion mentions returning with 95 ships to the Iron Islands. And 500 men for 5 ships of the Iron Fleet is far too few. Try 750-1,000.

But the impression of the ironborn we get is not one of power. The isles are bleak, agriculture is useless, the only mines are iron, no gold/silver etc etc. The Greyjoys don't seem to be up there with the other great houses. Influence in Westeros is small etc etc

Then all of a sudden they send around 1000 ships (possibly very inflated) to take the Reach on, after sending another 100 (or there abouts) very large ships across the ocean? As in 10,000 men at the least iirc

Seems a huge leap in power to me...possibly to whittle down the forces of the Reach when george realised they're too strong?

You need to differentiate between military and economic power.

The Ironborn's naval economy is an outlier. It makes them poorer than the mainlanders, but at the same time enables them to field ten times the percentage of armed men.

And that they themselves produce arms and armor instead of importing it makes their equipment feasible.

[DireGhost]

Posts like this are why I come to this forum. We can debate numbers all day long, but great work! Such an interesting read. Great to fill the gap between books with stuff like this!

[Vikingkingq]

I think there's a bit of confusion here about the Ironborn fleet. The Ironborn Fleet consists of two kinds of vessels, the normal longships and the bigger Iron Fleet longships, which are actually proper warships, but built relatively small, the "equal of our lesser war galleys." (AFFC, Chapter 32) This fits from what we learn from Theon that these bigger ships can hold around 100 men - Theon's Sea Bitch is bigger than a normal longship, and a bit smaller than Balon's flagship or Victarion's flagship. And we know these bigger ships are three times the size of a normal longship (ADWD, Chapter 56), which means a normal longship hold 30 men.

Which means Victarion's Iron Fleet, the "hard heart of the Greyjoy strength," has 10,000 men. About half of those have been lost in the voyage (although some are no doubt lost and just generally raiding to survive), so he's down to around 5,000 men.

There is just no way Euron has 20,000 men. At maximum, he has 12,000. Personally, I think he's got more like 5,000.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Please, show me hints for widespread use of longships with just 30 men crew.

The skeide (20 pairs of oars, ~80 total crew) was the most common longship in the early history of the leidang, the halfbritugt skip (25 pairs of oars, ~100 total crew) later on.

[Marcus Agrippa]

the reach and the lannister forces are stretched out which in fiction means the group is about to bite the dust. Stannis has the most territorial ground to cover but has very little to fight outside the Bolton and clefjaw. He honestly looks okay from the military position. Food and resources are the biggest problem. The bravossi sell swords will be interesting.

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

Please, show me hints for widespread use of longships with just 30 men crew.

The skeide (20 pairs of oars, ~80 total crew) was the most common longship in the early history of the leidang, the halfbritugt skip (25 pairs of oars, ~100 total crew) later on.

That really depends. Most viking longships seem to have used one man per oar, not two. But then in the later Middle Ages the Norwegians seem to have built larger ships in general.

However the largest viking ship excavated as of yet would have had 60-70 crewmen, and the others more like 30-40. There is nothing really indicating the that Ironborn build larger longships than this considering that it is stated in the books that the Iron Fleet ships are three times as large, while still only being equivalent to light galleys. Anyway as an illustration the ship to the left in this picture is built like one excavated in a harbour in Denmark (the other is a knarr, more of a trading ship, transport and perhaps also exploration ship) http://i.imgur.com/a7ssdnb.jpg

As you can see you aren't going to fit any hundred men on that one, especially not if you want room for loot and supplies.

Besides Sweden at least actually used a number of 25-man longships when their Ledung laws were put into print during the High Middle Ages.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

One man per oar while rowing, and one more as stated in the leidang laws, to work the other shift, to form boarding parties etc. etc.

As far as I could discern of that ship, it's either a skeide or a halfbritugt skip, the sail makes counting the benches difficult. And yes, that means fully manned it carried either ~80 or ~100 men.

Yes, that's tight. So what? You wouldn't exactly cross the Atlantic that way but stay close to the shore and sleep ashore whenever possible.

The 25-man longships you're referring to are acually 25-benchers. The halfbritugt skip I mentioned above. With ~100 men crew. Which fits Theon's Sea Bitch to a T, by the way.

[The Holy Goat]

Nope. He has wargalleys, not longships. Longships don't have cabins, for instance.

Furthermore, you need to take all the damaged and abandoned ships of his initial fleet into account. Most of the lost ones won't be lost with all hands. Otherwise he couldn't even man his new ships.

They call them longhips though, and so will. It's not like the ships of the Iron Islands are actual norse longships to begin with: fast sleek and shallow yes, but they seem to have more space onboard in general (as you yourself pointed out, they have cabins), and unlike real longships they have rams, suggesting they are more similar to galleys than the viking lonships were.

And what makes you think Victarion doesn't use the original crew for the ships he captures, and merely sets some of his men to steer and watch over the ships. It's not as if all the men on his ships are needed to row, so some could surely be spared to naviagte and intimidate.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Where the ships of the Iron Fleet in particular called longships? I don't remember any instance.

Would be useless. Manning two or three that way, ok. But not 20% additional ships. That would make them far too vulnerable in battle. He'd have only disadvantages out of it.

Furthermore, that would require all ~50 ships he lost on the voyage to be lost with all hands, instead of being damaged beyond repair (on sea) and the crew rescued and distributed among the other ships. Which is damn improbable.

[Mithras]

“What of your new dromonds?” asked Ser Harys. “The longships of the ironmen cannot stand before our dromonds, surely? King Robert’s Hammer is the mightiest warship in all Westeros.”

“She was,” said Waters. “Sweet Cersei will be her equal, once complete, and Lord Tywin will be twice the size of either. Only half are fitted out, however, and none is fully crewed. Even when they are, the numbers would be greatly against us. The common longship is small compared to our galleys, this is true, but the ironmen have larger ships as well. Lord Balon’s Great Kraken and the warships of the Iron Fleet were made for battle, not for raids. They are the equal of our lesser war galleys in speed and strength, and most are better crewed and captained. The ironmen live their whole lives at sea.”

He had set sail from the Shields with ninety-three, of the hundred that had once made up the Iron Fleet, a fleet belonging not to a single lord but to the Seastone Chair itself, captained and crewed by men from all the islands. Ships smaller than the great war dromonds of the green lands, aye, but thrice the size of any common longship, with deep hulls and savage rams, fit to meet the king’s own fleets in battle.

Between Deepwood and Dagmer lay long leagues, rugged hills, thick woods, wild rivers, and more northmen than she cared to contemplate. Asha had four longships and not quite two hundred men … including Tristifer Botley, who could not be relied on. For all his talk of love, she could not imagine Tris rushing off to Torrhen’s Square to die with Dagmer Cleftjaw.

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

One man per oar while rowing, and one more as stated in the leidang laws, to work the other shift, to form boarding parties etc. etc.

As far as I could discern of that ship, it's either a skeide or a halfbritugt skip, the sail makes counting the benches difficult. And yes, that means fully manned it carried either ~80 or ~100 men.

Yes, that's tight. So what? You wouldn't exactly cross the Atlantic that way but stay close to the shore and sleep ashore whenever possible.

The 25-man longships you're referring to are acually 25-benchers. The halfbritugt skip I mentioned above. With ~100 men crew. Which fits Theon's Sea Bitch to a T, by the way.

The Swedish ledung laws make it clear that their ships are to be crewed by 25 men, since every hundred men in the levy are supposed to also have four warships.

There is no evidence that any of the Viking age ships that have been found had crews that large. You can look any one of them up and see for yourself what the estimates on crew size are. In the Sagas they certainly don't seem to have that large crews either.

[The Holy Goat]

Where the ships of the Iron Fleet in particular called longships? I don't remember any instance.

Would be useless. Manning two or three that way, ok. But not 20% additional ships. That would make them far too vulnerable in battle. He'd have only disadvantages out of it.

Furthermore, that would require all ~50 ships he lost on the voyage to be lost with all hands, instead of being damaged beyond repair (on sea) and the crew rescued and distributed among the other ships. Which is damn improbable.

Victarion Greyjoy does in his chapter The Iron Suitor: "Longships filled the sea..." is his description of the Iron Fleet.

But he doesn't intend to use the ships he's captured for straight up battle. He intends to use them as transport.

I'm not saying all of them were lost, I'm just pointing out that it's unlikely they picked up a thousand.

[Ran]

The vast majority of the ironborn ships are longships, and the evidence strongly suggests they are fairly small ships with small crews. Not only does it reasonably fit historical record -- most Viking ships expected one person per oar, and did not carry a "second shift" unless a battle was being planned in which case the crew might double or even triple (to provide extra bodies to row, yes, but mostly to protect the oarsmen in the course of the battle and fight with the enemy) -- but it fits what we know of the ironborn: they give such a strong weight to the importance of being a captain that the ironborn beggar themselves, and have many more vessels than they strictly need. It would probably be better for them militarily to reduce the number of small warcraft considerably, and have more of the larger ship types, but it's just not in the cultural mindset to deny any man who can afford to build and man a ship (and thus be a "king" on his own deck) the right to do so.

[BryndenBFish]

The vast majority of the ironborn ships are longships, and the evidence strongly suggests they are fairly small ships with small crews. Not only does it reasonably fit historical record -- most Viking ships expected one person per oar, and did not carry a "second shift" unless a battle was being planned in which case the crew might double or even triple (to provide extra bodies to row, yes, but mostly to protect the oarsmen in the course of the battle and fight with the enemy) -- but it fits what we know of the ironborn: they give such a strong weight to the importance of being a captain that the ironborn beggar themselves, and have many more vessels than they strictly need. It would probably be better for them militarily to reduce the number of small warcraft considerably, and have more of the larger ship types, but it's just not in the cultural mindset to deny any man who can afford to build and man a ship (and thus be a "king" on his own deck) the right to do so.

So, where would you fall in the 5000 Ironmen invading the Reach vs. the 15,000 figure debate?

[Free Northman Reborn]

I would say the Reach invasion consists of 400 ships of 30 men each - giving you 12k men. Add the 100 ships of the Iron Fleet - each manned by 100 men - and it takes the total Ironborn strength to around 22,000.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Triple post.

[Free Northman Reborn]

Triple post.