`Theon's Mistake

[Fear of Drowning]

If the Ironborn flee from Moat Cailin their entire plan falls apart. Victarion would never flee. Asha only flees from Deepwood Motte because she knows the ruler of the Iron Isands (Euron) wants her dead, will never reinforce her and is no longer interested in the North. Had Balon still ruled and Stannis attacked she would have stood her ground. If things get messy at Winterfell with hundreds of Ironborn they kill thousands of northmen before going down and become a legend. More likely they kill thousands of northmen, then the northmen retreat.

If what you say about only small numbers being able to reach Winterfell is true, a few hundred men can easily be split into small parties and make it with ease - not that this would be necessary. There are negligible northern soldiers to stop them, they went south with Robb. If proper reinforcements can't reach Winterfell Asha would have said this. You just made that up.

Anyone who sieges Winterfell will be tied up, unable to oppose Ironborn raiders or attack Moat Cailin from the north. Those who attempt to storm a Winterfell held by hundreds of Ironborn will die in great numbers. Even if they win (unlikely) they will take much higher losses than the defenders. As well as symbolic value, which is extremely important in dividing the North and winning Northern lords to the Ironborn cause, holding Winterfell will tie up and hopefully kill large numbers of Northern soldiers.

[Universal Sword Donor]

Frankly I just don't think the IB had much to gain by staying at WF. Even if they did reinforce it, well what are they going to do with it?

Asha had the right of it. The only real use of WF was to capture the Starks/Reeds. Gives them leverage over Robb and the Reeds.

[Maid So Fair]

If the Ironborn flee from Moat Cailin their entire plan falls apart. Victarion would never flee. Asha only flees from Deepwood Motte because she knows the ruler of the Iron Isands (Euron) wants her dead, will never reinforce her and is no longer interested in the North. Had Balon still ruled and Stannis attacked she would have stood her ground. If things get messy at Winterfell with hundreds of Ironborn they kill thousands of northmen before going down and become a legend. More likely they kill thousands of northmen, then the northmen retreat.

If what you say about only small numbers being able to reach Winterfell is true, a few hundred men can easily be split into small parties and make it with ease - not that this would be necessary. There are negligible northern soldiers to stop them, they went south with Robb. If proper reinforcements can't reach Winterfell Asha would have said this. You just made that up.

Anyone who sieges Winterfell will be tied up, unable to oppose Ironborn raiders or attack Moat Cailin from the north. Those who attempt to storm a Winterfell held by hundreds of Ironborn will die in great numbers. Even if they win (unlikely) they will take much higher losses than the defenders. As well as symbolic value, which is extremely important in dividing the North and winning Northern lords to the Ironborn cause, holding Winterfell will tie up and hopefully kill large numbers of Northern soldiers.

Or the northmen don't attack a strongly reinforced castle like idiots and just leave a force to siege it. It's not like the Ironborn can leave without everybody knowing about it more or less immediately. It wouldn't even take a particularly large force. They can even just ignore it since the Ironborn are not going anywhere fast from Winterfell.

Of course there are northern soldiers, we saw them amassing at Winterfell for the battle of Ice - both sides are mostly Northmen as Stannis's forces have been decimated at BBW and the Wall. Theon's plan with a small force worked because nobody was expecting it, but they have been warned now. It also relied on Theon's knowledge of the Northern geography (and especially local knowledge of the areas around Winterfell) that whoever would be leading the reinforcements simply would not have. The Northmen know their own land a lot better than any Ironborn ever will and any decent commander will use that to their advantage. The reinforcements might reach WF, if sufficiently numerous (ie more than a couple of hundred), but they are certain to be bloodied along the way, where they would be fighting in hostile territory, on the enemy's terms and potentially facing a better equipped enemy (Ironborn don't do heavy cavalry). And yes, every single Northern lord will oppose them, because they attacked their homeland so there's no winning them to Ironborn cause whatever they do. Taking WF made the entire Northern army in the South want to go home with the specific intention of kicking out the Ironborn.

[Sullen]

Theon's greatest mistake was trying to be two things at once.

He wanted to be Theon Greyjoy, heir to Pyke and the Iron Islands, Ironborn to the core, but he also wanted wanted to be the Prince of Winterfell, loved and respected by the people of Winterfell, good and honourable lord to them... something that was ultimately impossible to achieve.

Asha was in the right, he should have taken the hostages, burnt Winterfell to the ground, and fled to the Islands.

[Fear of Drowning]

So, if it would be impossible or ruinously difficult to properly reinforce Theon, why didn't Asha say this? The northern soldiers we see in Dance have been levied in the years between Clash and Dance as a result of the Ironborn invasion. There would be plenty of time to reinforce Winterfell before fresh northern troops are raised, raising forces takes time. I find it completely unbelievable that Robb left enough forces behind to effectively cover all the huge lands surrounding Winterfell and all the possible approaches. Why would he do this? Why not take all those troops with him? Your suggestion that reinforcements for Winterfell would have been opposed by significant forces is not in the text.

An effective siege requires significantly more men than are in the garrison you oppose. Otherwise they sally when your guard is down. Ironborn are better equipped than northmen to boot - plate vs northern mail. Unless of course the northmen put significant numbers of their precious cavalry in the besieging force. Mounted troops are useless at storming a castle and cavalry used for the siege are tied up. The northmen are too proud to ignore a Winterfell held by their enemies, and if they did there would be constant raids launched against the surrounding smallfolk.

Balon expected Robb to turn around without Theon taking Winterfell. That is why Moat Cailin was so important in his plans. He expected battle there.

The likes of Roose Bolton would have been willing to join the Ironborn for sure if the Ironborn were clearly winning and they saw profit in it. I think you make the northern lords too modern in your mind. They are not by and large nationalists, but have a parochial concern for their own lands (not the entire north). Those based inland, bar the Starks, have not been invaded. Starks, Greyjoys both are outsiders. If the Greyjoys look set to win and offer you a better position why not side with them?

Being Prince of Winterfell doesn't require the love or respect of the smallfolk under Winterfells dominion.

[UnFit Finlay]

Asha was right. The iron islands had no chance in hell to beat the North head on. It simply had too many human resources. What they could do was hit and run.

The vast majority of the North's forces were in the South though and, as long as Victarion held Moat Cailin and Lysa refused to assist them, they were trapped there. Those left behind were far from their strongest troops, were scattered and disorganised and were facing the demoralizing prospect of having to attack their own Capital. If Balon had strengthened Theon enough to defeat Rodrik then the rest of the Northern resistance would've crumbled.

Theon biggest mistake was betraying Robb. He simply underestimated himself for what he was ie Balon's only son who was raised by Ned Stark an honorable man. Having someone who valued honor and loyalty ruling the iron islands was every king's interest. No one wants mere pirates sitting close to his kingdom.

Unfortunately that was never going to happen. The Iron Born wouldn't accept Theon as one of them even after he betrayed the Starks and took Winterfell. If he'd stayed loyal to Robb, he'd have been giving up his birthright completely and would essentially have been a beggar, though it's unlikely he'd have been allowed to leave Pyke.

Or the northmen don't attack a strongly reinforced castle like idiots and just leave a force to siege it. It's not like the Ironborn can leave without everybody knowing about it more or less immediately. It wouldn't even take a particularly large force. They can even just ignore it since the Ironborn are not going anywhere fast from Winterfell.

Winterfell was surely stocked well enough to withstand a fairly long siege? And even if it isn't, the North would be starving their OWN people. Who is going to care more about Beth Cassel starving to death? Theon or Rodrik?

Anyway, I'd say Theon's biggest mistake was trusting Reek/Ramsay. If he hadn't done that he'd be up at The Wall, fighting the Others with all his limbs. Jon might've taken his head off, right enough, but even that's got to be preferable to being Reek.

[Cladinator]

Theon's greatest mistake was trying to be two things at once.

He wanted to be Theon Greyjoy, heir to Pyke and the Iron Islands, Ironborn to the core, but he also wanted wanted to be the Prince of Winterfell, loved and respected by the people of Winterfell, good and honourable lord to them... something that was ultimately impossible to achieve.

Asha was in the right, he should have taken the hostages, burnt Winterfell to the ground, and fled to the Islands.

Yup.

[Dorian Martell]

the only mistake Theon made was letting Ramsey cut his penis off.

[RedShirt47]

Why couldn't he hold it though?

500 men could withstand an assault on the Winterfell castle. But how long could they live there surrounded by 5,000 northmen?

The food would run out eventually then what? who would come to their rescue?

Most medieval castles fell to siege rather than assault. Sit outside and starve them out. The Iron Born would need to take and hold every castle between the coast and Winterfell in order to hold Winterfell for any time.

Then they would need to subdue the people and persuade them to fight for the Iron Born.

Theon could not have held Winterfell for any length of time without any logistical support.He overstretched his forces.

[TrueOrFalse]

the only mistake Theon made was letting Ramsey cut his penis off.

I doubt he had much of a choice in the matter.

[Pox Americana]

If we're assuming Theon betraying Robb was happening anyway, then Theon should've done as his father told him and continued his raids along the coast. Taking Winterfell wasn't necessarily a bad move. Holding Winterfell was a TERRIBLE move. Take highborn hostages, enthrall the peasants, steal everything not nailed down, and burn the rest.

[ser_duncans_heir]

he was hundreds of leagues away in a cold country surrounded by enemies and men who know the land , if he held winterfell he would have been starved out and if he left the northmen would have picked him off . even if asha did manage to stay and bring a bigger force to garrison winterfell then the result would be the same except the northmen would cut off the irnoborn from the sea and reinforcements. Unless you have a massive standing army then its a wasteful endeavour .

[toffeejay]

When Theon takes the castle in the night he held:

• The Stark heirs (oweing to Arya being thought dead and Sansa in the hands of the enemy)
  
• The two heirs to House Reed, the House putting up the most resistance to Victarion at Moat Calin
  
• The heir of Roddrik Cassell, the man tasked with commanding the remaining Northern forces in North.
  

Theon essentially had two options:

1. Slaughter the castle, take the above captives and anyone else of note and ride back to the ships before dawn.
   
2. Slaughter the castle, burn it down, take the above captives and anyone else of note and ride back to the ships before dawn
   

The first gives a better chance not drawing attention to yourself, the latter inflicts more damage to the Starks. And what better way to impress the man who misgivingly blames Ned Stark for the death of his sons than by taking his?

Instead he choose to sit around with a crown on his head. Ultimatley he does exactly what an Ironborn wouldn't.

[BadWo1f]

Sacking Winterfell then taking Bran and Rickon would be better move, Winterfell is in centre of The North, a lot of Northmen are still in the homeland and they all hate Iron Islands. Asha also says how Winterfell is far from sea and power of IB is in their ships and surprise attacks.If Asha went and helped Theon they would lose all other positions in The North,so they would have Winterfell and nothimg more,castle in centre of The North. If they had Bran and Rickon they could talk with Northmen...Bad move.

[~~~~~~~~~~~~~]

Theon wanted Robb's respect more than his own father's. In this he was always doomed to fail. His father didn't give a damn about Theon or he would not have given him to Eddard Stark as a hostage in the first place, he would have told him to take his daughter.

Theon realizes later that it was the Stark's he loved and Eddard that treated him more of a son than his own father had and Robb was his brother that "he should have been with, he should have died with him at the Red Wedding."

He was definitely conflicted. He thought giving his father his throne back through Robb would win his father's love and respect and gratitude, instead he was mocked and degraded. Theon's entire arc is heartbreaking to me. Had he found Brandon & Rickon, I truly do not believe for a minute he would have been able to kill them. They were his brothers.

[Dorian Martell]

I doubt he had much of a choice in the matter.

are you sure?

[TrueOrFalse]

are you sure?

Yes.

[Oafkeeper]

*Rolls eyes*

Theon's mistake was his ambition exceeded his loyalty.

Winterfell is a nice prize but not the key to controlling the north. As you may have noticed by ADWD the castle currently has 6000 northmen and Freys in it. If Theon and Asha had stayed please tell me how 50 or even 500 Ironborn could defend it against that alone?

If the Ironborn brought enough men to defend Winterfell they'd never be able to keep them supplied. They'd be fighting deep in land on enemy territory and would be ground down to nothing by attrition. If Robb had survived the Ironborn would be facing a veteran army with a killed commander who knew the land and with men fighting for their homes. If he didn't then the Iron Throne would see Bolton had as many men as he needed to repel the Ironborn or at least keep them locked in perpetual exhausting warfare.

And even if they did win they wouldn't have the north, they'd just have a castle, deep in land, surrounded by irrevocably hostile enemies in other castles.

This is a mistake so many conquerors make, they think if they take some capital city the enemy must surrender. Russia did not surrender when Napoleon took Moscow. America did not surrender when the British took Washington in 1812. Persia did not defeat the Athenians when they took Athens.

Holding Winterfell would not win the war, it just puts the ironborn further from their strength and deeper in the north's power.

Also the first line sounds like as is the vile attempt of a Theon-fan trying to put down other characters to excuse their pet faves screwup in a piece of propaganda and twisting of facts and words that would make the tabloids blush.

Terrible terrible thread.

[TrueOrFalse]

DP

[TrueOrFalse]

Also the first line sounds like as is the vile attempt of a Theon-fan trying to put down other characters to excuse their pet faves screwup in a piece of propaganda and twisting of facts and words that would make the tabloids blush.

What an exaggeration. :rolleyes: